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- Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:50 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
I'm voting Epignosis. I implore every other member of the town to do the same.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:49 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Hard to say. In isolation, probably, but you're both within the same tier so I really couldn't say with any shred of confidence.speedchuck wrote:So does Dom look worse than me, or? ...
MP, do you have any questions for me that can clarify my situation? I'd rather not lose us the game just because of some super low early game effort.
If you could walk me through your thought process regarding your read lists and/or votes, that'd be appreciated. The thing I'm struggling with the most is that your thoughts are compatible with an agenda because there's no clear logic or thought process to follow.
And I'm not married to any of my assessments I made today, even if I worded some of them very strongly. I'm going to sleep on all of this and surely tinfoil all of this stuff into oblivion. So make your cases, but don't spend the entire time defending yourself either. A healthy mix of addressing some concerns I threw in the ISO as well as evaluating everyone else and the combinations alive would be ideal.
It's imperative that everyone provide a clear ranking of how they feel about the possible combinations before EoD. We're at too critical a stage in the game for anything less.
Alright, seriously, I'm exhausted.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:44 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
I'm exhausted.
PhD work will demand my attention, but I'll be sure to give this Day period my absolute all to the best of my ability. It's incredibly important that the rest of you all do the same, within reason.
PhD work will demand my attention, but I'll be sure to give this Day period my absolute all to the best of my ability. It's incredibly important that the rest of you all do the same, within reason.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:42 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Alright, voting records and ISOs done, and here's where I'm at:
MP Rainbow: Overall (Solo)
S~V~S
Sorsha
speedchuck
Dom
Epignosis
MP Rainbow: Overall (Dual)
Epignosis & S~V~S
Dom & S~V~S
speedchuck & S~V~S
Sorsha & S~V~S
Dom & speedchuck
Sorsha & speedchuck
Epignosis & Sorsha
Dom & Sorsha
Dom & Epignosis
Epignosis & speedchuck
I really think it's Epi and speedchuck at the moment, but I'm willing to reassess and continue mulling over all of this.
Comments are encouraged. It's imperative that all of us assess as much as possible.
MP Rainbow: Overall (Solo)
S~V~S
Sorsha
speedchuck
Dom
Epignosis
MP Rainbow: Overall (Dual)
Epignosis & S~V~S
Dom & S~V~S
speedchuck & S~V~S
Sorsha & S~V~S
Dom & speedchuck
Sorsha & speedchuck
Epignosis & Sorsha
Dom & Sorsha
Dom & Epignosis
Epignosis & speedchuck
I really think it's Epi and speedchuck at the moment, but I'm willing to reassess and continue mulling over all of this.
Comments are encouraged. It's imperative that all of us assess as much as possible.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:35 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
MP's ISO of S~V~S
A fair question.
Damn. I like this.
I like this too. These all seem like genuine questions with the intention of sorting speedchuck.
You go, girl.
Seriously, S~V~S bringing some serious shade down. This reads genuine to me as well.
More prodding of speedchuck. I can believe she is trying to sort him here.
S~V~S: The towniest town that ever towned so far.
I like the analysis here. S~V~S is analyzing notsawyer's behavior through the lens of how she knows she would act. In general I find townies employing this logic more than baddies.
She proceeds to tunnel the fuck out of notsawyer, which seems like town S~V~S to me.
This doesn't look like speed and S~V~S have BTSC.
This doesn't look like DF and S~V~S have BTSC.
Then there's that back and forth with Epi.
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Yeah, S~V~S is absolutely town. I'm extremely confident in this. The mafia has dun goofed with keeping her alive this long. If she's mafia, then holy shit.
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Seriously, S~V~S bringing some serious shade down. This reads genuine to me as well.
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S~V~S: The towniest town that ever towned so far.
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She proceeds to tunnel the fuck out of notsawyer, which seems like town S~V~S to me.
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Then there's that back and forth with Epi.
=========================================================================================
Yeah, S~V~S is absolutely town. I'm extremely confident in this. The mafia has dun goofed with keeping her alive this long. If she's mafia, then holy shit.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:23 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
MP's ISO of speedchuck
I'm confused at speedchuck's early D1 behavior. Admittedly he says he was trying to cause tomfoolery.
Something about this post bothers me. I can't put my finger on it though. It's too self-meta.
I was giving speedchuck credit for his moves against DF on D1, but it doesn't seem substantiated really. Could be a distancing suspicion. Especially considering...
speedchuck changes his tune on DF come D2, with no real explanation.
I don't understand how speedchuck came to this conclusion. This almost reeks of TMI. I don't like it.
speedchuck says he was only trying to save Llama D1, but that's strange considering he seemed fixated on DF in particular. Maybe he can clarify here.
This is an interesting reads list. I'll talk more about this later when I cover his subsequent lists.
Again I don't understand this change of thought re: DF. There's a total lack of transparency in speedchuck's posts that I find suspect and uncharacteristic based on my limited experience with him.
This looks like an Epi/speedchuck teammate exchange to me.
Another read list. Epi moving up is not explained. Most of these aren't.
Speculation re: Dom. Seems to suspect him.
Proposes a Dom-Sorsha team. This would be especially convenient if Epi and speedchuck are teammates.
Why is speedchuck willing to forgive Epi?
This whole post is one big post of trying to rationalize Epi's behavior as reasonable. I further smell teammate indicative behavior.
Final reads list, with Sorsha and Dom bringing up the rear.
=========================================================================================
speedchuck is a moderate mafia read. There's a thorough lack of accountability and transparency that is pervasive in speedchuck's performance that seriously bothers me. I don't follow his train of thought regarding reads at all. He just says "gut". I say bullshit.
I'm given a bit of pause occasionally with his treatment of DF on D1, but looking at the in-thread content makes his vote look much weaker.
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Something about this post bothers me. I can't put my finger on it though. It's too self-meta.
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This whole post is one big post of trying to rationalize Epi's behavior as reasonable. I further smell teammate indicative behavior.
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=========================================================================================
speedchuck is a moderate mafia read. There's a thorough lack of accountability and transparency that is pervasive in speedchuck's performance that seriously bothers me. I don't follow his train of thought regarding reads at all. He just says "gut". I say bullshit.
I'm given a bit of pause occasionally with his treatment of DF on D1, but looking at the in-thread content makes his vote look much weaker.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Yeah, that thought's crossed my mind as well. Any thoughts on the other three?Dom wrote:i'm not sure sorsha would be so distant if she were bad but idkMovingPictures07 wrote:Dom, if it's not me and not you, then which combination of Epi, speedchuck, Sorsha, and S~V~S makes sense to you? I know you seem disengaged with the game, so don't feel like it has to be an even remotely informed decision. Just your gut evaluation.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Why's that?Epignosis wrote:Speedchuck and Sorsha.MovingPictures07 wrote:Who do you think they are?Epignosis wrote:I get that. I'd roll with S~V~S being good too (see our earlier dispute). That would leave you with three people to nab two mafia.MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not about to blow the endgame myself with tunnel vision, Epi, so you know I will give you a fair shake just like everyone else. I'm just calling shit like I see it, that's all.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:03 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Dom, if it's not me and not you, then which combination of Epi, speedchuck, Sorsha, and S~V~S makes sense to you? I know you seem disengaged with the game, so don't feel like it has to be an even remotely informed decision. Just your gut evaluation.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:58 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Dude, it's cool, it's just a game. I know you've been having a lot going on lately. Whatever you can do will assist.Dom wrote:this..Epignosis wrote:G-Man is one of the coolest people I know.
mp i have no idea what i'm doing
i'm sorry.
Can you maybe walk me through what your thoughts were on speedchuck whenever you get the chance?
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:41 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Who do you think they are?Epignosis wrote:I get that. I'd roll with S~V~S being good too (see our earlier dispute). That would leave you with three people to nab two mafia.MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not about to blow the endgame myself with tunnel vision, Epi, so you know I will give you a fair shake just like everyone else. I'm just calling shit like I see it, that's all.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
MP's ISO of Sorsha
There really isn't much to go off of in Sorsha's ISO. But I'm trying.
I'm not entirely clear what was going on with Sorsha and Llama. But this is how Sorsha voted. It is notable that Sorsha came under serious pressure early in D1.
Sorsha D2: MIA
Some healthy paranoia or mudslinging? I lean towards the former, but who knows.
This is critical. Sorsha voiced suspicion of DF; even though she missed the vote, this is worth consideration.
...and that's it. A vote for DF on D4.
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This is tough. But based on in-thread content alone, I actually think Sorsha doesn't look half bad. I'd call her a slight town read.
There really isn't much to go off of in Sorsha's ISO. But I'm trying.
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Sorsha D2: MIA
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This is tough. But based on in-thread content alone, I actually think Sorsha doesn't look half bad. I'd call her a slight town read.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
Screw it, I'm finishing these ISOs tonight.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
I'm not about to blow the endgame myself with tunnel vision, Epi, so you know I will give you a fair shake just like everyone else. I'm just calling shit like I see it, that's all.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:15 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Why don't you do something about it instead of just complaining about how you suck? I'm doing the best I can with the information I have to analyze, and your response is to just say "MP's gonna lose for you all hurrrr".Epignosis wrote:MP getting ready to lose y'all the game.
Fucking get off the pot and convince me otherwise then.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Bullshit you didn't, you actively argued against his lynch.Epignosis wrote:I didn't defend shit.MovingPictures07 wrote:He defended DF to oblivion
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:13 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
RIP G-Man. That's right. Guess I'm still alive.
I got distracted by an impromptu phone meeting with my dissertation chair.
I wanted to finish the ISOs tonight, but it's getting late and I'm tired. Might not resume until tomorrow.
I got distracted by an impromptu phone meeting with my dissertation chair.
I wanted to finish the ISOs tonight, but it's getting late and I'm tired. Might not resume until tomorrow.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:34 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Hence my initial assessment of it being unlikely.Epignosis wrote:Epignosis distancing shows a "lack of follow through."MovingPictures07 wrote:To clarify on one point:
There was clear cognitive dissonance between my initial thoughts re: Epignosis & speedchuck and then when I revisited the voting records to develop this rainbow list. I originally had thought Epignosis & speedchuck were very unlikely. However, I felt the distancing could be there because of the lack of follow through, so I threw them in the yellow "I don't really know" area in the end.
ISO stuff upcoming.
Noted.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
MP's ISO of Epignosis
Epignosis spent Day 1 making jokey posts and arguing with G-Man about his character claim and a "two-way" post. I have no idea what purpose any of this served. I don't think that's a good look at all.
Epi's Day 2 is all about nutella:
I could easily see Dom and Epignosis being teammates and grilling nutella as an easy mislynch.
I don't like how Epi is putting out so little thought of his own. I also don't like his interactions with nutella at all; I feel as though he isn't making any effort to actually understand where she's coming from to develop a read on her, instead he just continuously dismisses her and picks apart her wording.
I think Epi's baddie hunting really leaves a lot to be desired here. By D2 he's evaluated almost no one, discussed almost nothing, and hyperfocused his interrogations in a way that I see as furthering an agenda much more than I do an honest attempt at trying to get a handle on nutella's alignment. That's all a terrible look.
Then comes D3 Epi, where he shifts attention to S~V~S:
Yet again I find Epi not making any attempt to actually uncover S~V~S's alignment but instead prescript her behavior to "opportunistic". I just cannot fathom where Epi's perspective is in all of this. Perhaps he can clarify.
I also find the orange incredibly ironic considering Epi doesn't seem to give a shit about what makes anyone indicative of being mafia.
How have you all not lynched Epi yet?
WIFOM, but it is a defense of DF on D3, which was a critical day for DF's survival. So a slightly bad look overall.
More defense of DF. One could say that Epi would not be so brazen about defending a teammate, but I wouldn't say that.
Here is Epi's giant case against S~V~S. The first question I have is: If so much of this is based on Llama, then why the fuck did Epi spend D2 grilling nutella and not mentioning a single word of this?
That said, I'm not sure what the strategic value of a mafia Epi going after S~V~S on a solo crusade would accomplish. I'm given a bit of pause.
This post is likely non-alignment-indicative, but it feels genuine nonetheless. So that's something.
I like this line of thinking and attempt to spur discussion.
Not sure I like this though. Again one has to dabble into WIFOM asking whether Epi would try so hard to redirect the lynch away from his teammate, but a D4 mislynch would have ended the game, so I think it's the logical play to make as a teammate. A Hail Mary, but logical.
Earlier Epi speculated on DF's role being a traditional godfather; I forgot to quote it. I'm not sure what to make of that discussion, but it follows that Epi really tried to persuade people into not voting DF D4 pretty much as much as possible. Make of that what you will.
If this is distancing, consider me impressed.
Very impressed.
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Epignosis is a strong mafia read. I'm not feeling 100%, but if he's town I cannot fathom the game he has played here. He defended DF to oblivion, his cases against nutella and S~V~S (but especially nutella) felt like he was splitting hairs and not making any genuine attempt to understand where the other person was coming from.
Someone please argue with me on this because if I'm wrong we're fucked, but I feel about 90-95% confident Epi is bad.
Epignosis spent Day 1 making jokey posts and arguing with G-Man about his character claim and a "two-way" post. I have no idea what purpose any of this served. I don't think that's a good look at all.
Epi's Day 2 is all about nutella:
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I don't like how Epi is putting out so little thought of his own. I also don't like his interactions with nutella at all; I feel as though he isn't making any effort to actually understand where she's coming from to develop a read on her, instead he just continuously dismisses her and picks apart her wording.
I think Epi's baddie hunting really leaves a lot to be desired here. By D2 he's evaluated almost no one, discussed almost nothing, and hyperfocused his interrogations in a way that I see as furthering an agenda much more than I do an honest attempt at trying to get a handle on nutella's alignment. That's all a terrible look.
Then comes D3 Epi, where he shifts attention to S~V~S:
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I also find the orange incredibly ironic considering Epi doesn't seem to give a shit about what makes anyone indicative of being mafia.
How have you all not lynched Epi yet?
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That said, I'm not sure what the strategic value of a mafia Epi going after S~V~S on a solo crusade would accomplish. I'm given a bit of pause.
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Earlier Epi speculated on DF's role being a traditional godfather; I forgot to quote it. I'm not sure what to make of that discussion, but it follows that Epi really tried to persuade people into not voting DF D4 pretty much as much as possible. Make of that what you will.
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Epignosis is a strong mafia read. I'm not feeling 100%, but if he's town I cannot fathom the game he has played here. He defended DF to oblivion, his cases against nutella and S~V~S (but especially nutella) felt like he was splitting hairs and not making any genuine attempt to understand where the other person was coming from.
Someone please argue with me on this because if I'm wrong we're fucked, but I feel about 90-95% confident Epi is bad.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:06 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
MP's ISO of Dom
I don't see a teammate interaction with Dom/S~V~S; Dom's question seems sincere. I see a potential teammate interaction with Dom/DF, though it depends on how one views it: distancing or throwing mud. I'm tentatively skeptical that this is throwing mud, but let's see how Dom follows up with this.
I don't understand the purpose of this post, especially given Dom failed to follow up on DF and got caught up in a nutella suspicion.
This seems like a strong assertion against speedchuck, but Dom never follows this up either until after his obsession with nutella is over. Could be distancing.
The hyperfocus on nutella is troubling, especially given Dom's lack of posts during the next couple of phases:
This is confusing. I'm not sure at all why Dom ever suspected speedchuck, let alone voted for him. Dom needs to answer for this ASAP.
Finally Dom returns to DF. I don't like this.
Dom is visibly confused. It's hard to do anything with this, but it could be genuine at face value if he is town. Tough call here. This is probably the one post that makes me hesitate on a mafia read of Dom.
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Dom is a moderate mafia read. I don't think his nutella suspicion seems genuine, especially given he conveniently didn't mention DF again for a ridiculously long period of time, which implies that his early thoughts on DF could be seen as distancing. If Dom is genuine, then the only thing he seems to have believed with conviction all game is the nutella case, and I frankly don't understand his behavior surrounding DF and especially surrounding speedchuck. Some clarity would be very appreciated.
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The hyperfocus on nutella is troubling, especially given Dom's lack of posts during the next couple of phases:
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Dom is a moderate mafia read. I don't think his nutella suspicion seems genuine, especially given he conveniently didn't mention DF again for a ridiculously long period of time, which implies that his early thoughts on DF could be seen as distancing. If Dom is genuine, then the only thing he seems to have believed with conviction all game is the nutella case, and I frankly don't understand his behavior surrounding DF and especially surrounding speedchuck. Some clarity would be very appreciated.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:52 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
To clarify on one point:
There was clear cognitive dissonance between my initial thoughts re: Epignosis & speedchuck and then when I revisited the voting records to develop this rainbow list. I originally had thought Epignosis & speedchuck were very unlikely. However, I felt the distancing could be there because of the lack of follow through, so I threw them in the yellow "I don't really know" area in the end.
ISO stuff upcoming.
There was clear cognitive dissonance between my initial thoughts re: Epignosis & speedchuck and then when I revisited the voting records to develop this rainbow list. I originally had thought Epignosis & speedchuck were very unlikely. However, I felt the distancing could be there because of the lack of follow through, so I threw them in the yellow "I don't really know" area in the end.
ISO stuff upcoming.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:45 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
I'm not bad, G-Man isn't bad, so that just leaves Dom, Epignosis, Sorsha, speedchuck, and S~V~S as the possible baddies; three of them are vanilla civ and two are vanilla mafia. I'm going to take a look at voting records, ISOs, and perhaps some interaction analyses with DF if I have time (doubtful, but I'd like to ideally) and see what I can draw from all of it using a replacement/fresh eyes perspective since I haven't read most of this game.
Looking over voting records in isolation at the moment; here are some immediate thoughts.
If Dom is bad, he missed the D1 vote. OK, believable I guess. Votes nutella on D2, ehhh. Hard to read much into D2 voting records in isolation because it was between two townies. But Dom's early D3 vote of nutella looks bad at face value as if he was trying to keep that lynch momentum going and avoid growing momentum surrounding DF. Not sure what to make of the D4 vote. Takeaway: Dom is a compatible teammate of DF based on voting record alone.
If Epignosis is bad, he kept the speedchuck wagon going on D1 to counteract mounting suspicion on DF; this is dependent on speedchuck being town though. Then on D2 he contributes to the nutella mislynch, OK. The sole vote for S~V~S on D3 is a bit troublesome, but it's strange because if he was DF's teammate he could have voted in conjunction with G-Man to tie it up. Maybe he thought that was too big of a risk. Not sure. His speedchuck vote on D4 isn't ideal, especially if speedchuck is bad. Takeaway: Epi is a compatible teammate of DF based on voting record alone. Also, I don't think Epi and speedchuck are teammates.
If Sorsha is bad, she hopped onto the Llama wagon D1, maybe to save speedchuck if he's bad. Couldn't preemptively save DF though. She missed the vote on D2 AND D3. UGH. Her D4 vote for DF is okay I guess. There's like nothing here to analyze. Grrr. Takeaway: I guess Sorsha is a compatible teammate of DF based on voting record alone. Also, if Sorsha is bad, speedchuck could be the final teammate.
If speedchuck is bad, D1 was a serious gamble by him and DF. However, not sure what to think of speedchuck's failure to follow through with it on D2 and D3; that perplexes me and makes me tinfoil a bit and consider that D1 was distancing. But it also would mean D4 was between two members of the mafia... not sure if I believe that as likely. Takeaway: It's possible that speedchuck is a teammate of DF based on voting record alone, but I think it's unlikely.
If S~V~S is bad, she was the first to start the Llama wagon D1, maybe to save speedchuck if he's bad. Late notsawyer vote on D2, not sure what to make of that. 3rd vote for DF on D3 looks good, really secured his lynch. Ballsy bussing if so. D4 she votes him again. Takeaway: It's possible that S~V~S is a teammate of DF based on voting record alone, but I think it's unlikely.
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So how does voting record reflect upon everyone left? Here's a rainbow.
MP Rainbow: Voting Record (Solo)
S~V~S
speedchuck
Sorsha
Epignosis
Dom
Also, because there are two baddies remaining, I analyzed the voting records with every combination of two. For example, Dom and speedchuck seem the least likely combination, even though I think Dom's voting record alone looks suspicious, because D3 would have been a very poor way for both of them to vote considering they could have easily coordinated to save DF with little personal responsibility.
Here is a rainbow reflecting my assessments of those combinations:
MP Rainbow: Voting Record (Dual)
Dom & speedchuck
Epignosis & S~V~S
Dom & S~V~S
speedchuck & S~V~S
Sorsha & S~V~S
Epignosis & speedchuck
Sorsha & speedchuck
Epignosis & Sorsha
Dom & Sorsha
Dom & Epignosis
Consequently, as a result of this analysis, I'm most likely to advocate a lynch of Dom or Epignosis on D5. This is just voting record though. I'm going to dig into ISOs next.
Looking over voting records in isolation at the moment; here are some immediate thoughts.
If Dom is bad, he missed the D1 vote. OK, believable I guess. Votes nutella on D2, ehhh. Hard to read much into D2 voting records in isolation because it was between two townies. But Dom's early D3 vote of nutella looks bad at face value as if he was trying to keep that lynch momentum going and avoid growing momentum surrounding DF. Not sure what to make of the D4 vote. Takeaway: Dom is a compatible teammate of DF based on voting record alone.
If Epignosis is bad, he kept the speedchuck wagon going on D1 to counteract mounting suspicion on DF; this is dependent on speedchuck being town though. Then on D2 he contributes to the nutella mislynch, OK. The sole vote for S~V~S on D3 is a bit troublesome, but it's strange because if he was DF's teammate he could have voted in conjunction with G-Man to tie it up. Maybe he thought that was too big of a risk. Not sure. His speedchuck vote on D4 isn't ideal, especially if speedchuck is bad. Takeaway: Epi is a compatible teammate of DF based on voting record alone. Also, I don't think Epi and speedchuck are teammates.
If Sorsha is bad, she hopped onto the Llama wagon D1, maybe to save speedchuck if he's bad. Couldn't preemptively save DF though. She missed the vote on D2 AND D3. UGH. Her D4 vote for DF is okay I guess. There's like nothing here to analyze. Grrr. Takeaway: I guess Sorsha is a compatible teammate of DF based on voting record alone. Also, if Sorsha is bad, speedchuck could be the final teammate.
If speedchuck is bad, D1 was a serious gamble by him and DF. However, not sure what to think of speedchuck's failure to follow through with it on D2 and D3; that perplexes me and makes me tinfoil a bit and consider that D1 was distancing. But it also would mean D4 was between two members of the mafia... not sure if I believe that as likely. Takeaway: It's possible that speedchuck is a teammate of DF based on voting record alone, but I think it's unlikely.
If S~V~S is bad, she was the first to start the Llama wagon D1, maybe to save speedchuck if he's bad. Late notsawyer vote on D2, not sure what to make of that. 3rd vote for DF on D3 looks good, really secured his lynch. Ballsy bussing if so. D4 she votes him again. Takeaway: It's possible that S~V~S is a teammate of DF based on voting record alone, but I think it's unlikely.
====================================================================================================
So how does voting record reflect upon everyone left? Here's a rainbow.
MP Rainbow: Voting Record (Solo)
S~V~S
speedchuck
Sorsha
Epignosis
Dom
Also, because there are two baddies remaining, I analyzed the voting records with every combination of two. For example, Dom and speedchuck seem the least likely combination, even though I think Dom's voting record alone looks suspicious, because D3 would have been a very poor way for both of them to vote considering they could have easily coordinated to save DF with little personal responsibility.
Here is a rainbow reflecting my assessments of those combinations:
MP Rainbow: Voting Record (Dual)
Dom & speedchuck
Epignosis & S~V~S
Dom & S~V~S
speedchuck & S~V~S
Sorsha & S~V~S
Epignosis & speedchuck
Sorsha & speedchuck
Epignosis & Sorsha
Dom & Sorsha
Dom & Epignosis
Consequently, as a result of this analysis, I'm most likely to advocate a lynch of Dom or Epignosis on D5. This is just voting record though. I'm going to dig into ISOs next.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:32 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
I should what now?Epignosis wrote:You should have to a penance.MovingPictures07 wrote:Alright, that's kinda bad though because my time for this world may indeed be very short. I'll do whatever I can though.
I obviously can't read 660ish posts worth of thread, but I'm going to thoroughly explore each of the remaining mafia and see how you all shake out.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:17 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Alright, that's kinda bad though because my time for this world may indeed be very short. I'll do whatever I can though.
I obviously can't read 660ish posts worth of thread, but I'm going to thoroughly explore each of the remaining mafia and see how you all shake out.
I obviously can't read 660ish posts worth of thread, but I'm going to thoroughly explore each of the remaining mafia and see how you all shake out.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:16 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Holy shit, that's baller.speedchuck wrote:Welcome!MovingPictures07 wrote:I see I am now a part of this game. Furthermore, it appears to be in a critical stage. Cool.
I've kept up with the game poorly off and on, so I'm vaguely aware of what's going on, but I don't feel comfortable with it. Let me read some of this stuff and I'll report back with questions for you all as well as some immediate reads.
The HCR crossover game, however, ends over four hours before this game. I'm in that game and it's currently Day 1, so my attention is more likely to be focused on that game until that EoD is complete.
You're basically townfirmed, so don't worry about suspicion too much. Just post what you can, and thanks!
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
Okay, I'm here and ready to start getting my head into this game. Can't stick around for too long, but I should be able to devote at least a solid hour or so. Today's thankfully been a pretty flexible day and allowed me some serious mafia time.
- Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:29 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 5
- Replies: 931
- Views: 20578
Re: Lost Again Mafia (Season 3) - Day 4
I see I am now a part of this game. Furthermore, it appears to be in a critical stage. Cool.
I've kept up with the game poorly off and on, so I'm vaguely aware of what's going on, but I don't feel comfortable with it. Let me read some of this stuff and I'll report back with questions for you all as well as some immediate reads.
The HCR crossover game, however, ends over four hours before this game. I'm in that game and it's currently Day 1, so my attention is more likely to be focused on that game until that EoD is complete.
I've kept up with the game poorly off and on, so I'm vaguely aware of what's going on, but I don't feel comfortable with it. Let me read some of this stuff and I'll report back with questions for you all as well as some immediate reads.
The HCR crossover game, however, ends over four hours before this game. I'm in that game and it's currently Day 1, so my attention is more likely to be focused on that game until that EoD is complete.