The Syndicate

I've mulled over everyone still alive. Here's a current Rainbow List:

Cookie
LoRab
G-Man
Russtifinko
Dragon D. Luffy
Metalmarsh89
Ricochet
Scotty
TinyBubbles
MovingPictures07

Included myself this time because why not?

I'll try to do what I can to update these reads, but I have a lot of PhD work to do this weekend.

I could definitely see G-Man as Big Figure.

I'm glad you pointed out those who have not voted for a confirmed mafia because I agree that I'll be absolutely FLOORED if you, Bass, or Rico are bad.

I also agree that if mafia kills you tonight, Big Figure is a fucking pussy.

I hate mafia teams in recent games I've played. They always take the easy way out. Actually earn your win, don't chicken out by killing off someone you know you can't lynch. That's pussy play.

And if it wasn't clear, I will do everything in my power to keep from being lynched going forward, but I'm afraid there's too much haze around my alignment this game that the heat will continue to burn me until everyone can poke my dead body with a stick and see that it's a civilian body.

Woah, linki w/ Scotty: Will read now.

G-Man, thanks for those technicolors. I know I knocked them last Day period, and I still firmly believe they shouldn't be the only source of information, but they are an important one.

Cookie, you still wondering why the mafia has kept me alive this whole time? Should be evident now.

Everyone, if you want to lynch me tomorrow, so be it. Going into this Day period, it seemed likely to me that I very well could get lynched anyway, and people were complaining that I couldn't commit. I felt strong about what I uncovered shortly after D5's start about Elo, so I decided to take a stand. Otherwise, it seemed as though I might have been dead meat anyway.

If you want to blame her death on me, that's fine. I realize she couldn't even defend herself. I take full responsibility for that lynch, as I stated earlier. I hate that I caused another mislynch and led to an unproductive D5 and likely an unproductive D6. I'm going to try my best to avoid the latter.

Rico said it best earlier in D5 when he said that the lynch of Elo truly was a test of voting records v. gameplay, because Elo looked pretty good in the former (though not perfect) and terrible in the latter. I took a gamble and I was wrong. For derailing the thread and refusing to listen to counterarguments as much as I should have, I apologize.

Nonetheless, I think that any of you who want to go "BLAME MP" should take a step back and realize that every player here takes an inherent responsibility for their own vote when it is cast (or not cast, which is reprehensible).

I don't apologize for all of the baddie hunting I've done this game. I may have questioned myself too much on Sloonei and espers, and tunneled Elo, but I've done everything in my power to hunt baddies this game. Truly this is a terrible performance from me. But it doesn't make me mafia.

I realize for some (perhaps many) of you, it would take a flip of me to truly confirm that, and nothing I can say would persuade you otherwise. I can empathize.

I was actually feeling selfish earlier this morning, as if I didn't care whether town won this game if they auto-lynched me tomorrow, because it means that I won't win. I put an insane amount of time and energy into this game, and it's been very mentally and emotionally taxing. For G-Man to declare to me that I "need to go" was very bothersome, especially when it can be argued that other players "need to go", for whatever reason. I don't think that should EVER be a reason for lynching anyone. Especially for lynching someone who's put as much effort as I have into this game. If you find my actions suspect, sure. But no one, on sheer principle, "needs to go". This isn't a criticism of you, G-Man, and I don't think that's what you intended, since you have declared my voting record as a reason for me being suspect, but I just want this said nonetheless.

Despite that, the truth is that I still want to see civilians win this game regardless. I'm going to try my best in what will probably be my last hour to make that happen.

I don't want to be lynched tomorrow. Right now, there are 10 players alive. Assuming Moloch is alive and a civilian is NKed tonight, that leaves 7-1-1 going into D6. 6-1-1 if I get lynched, then 5-1-1 going into D7. That's still not bad, but less than ideal, since you all can only afford 1 more mislynch after you'd lynch me. 2 mislynches, assuming successful NK of a civilian each Night, would make it 1-1-1, which is GAME OVER for us. Then there's the complication of the Watchmen additional win cons as well.

Think carefully about how you conduct lynches going forward, including my own, since we're running low on chances.

Epignosis wrote:All I know is that sometimes you have to be wary of a miracle too good to be true.

All I know is that sometimes your truth is contrary to everything in life you thought you knew.

All I know is that sometimes you wary

Because sometimes the target is you.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:DDL, I think everyone should vote for anyone so long as they aren't players that either of us are suspecting.

I swear I'm having a terrible streak at mafia lately. My scumhunting results are horrible. My baddie game doesn't last more than two cycles.

I think I need a break.

I can empathize 100%.

Unfortunately, breaks don't help me. :P

I've developed a new rule for further mafia interactions with Elo, for all of eternity:

If I think she's mafia, she's definitely civilian. If I think she's civilian, she's probably mafia.

Well, I totally understand if I get auto-lynched tomorrow, but I won't be the last mafia so... I'll try to do whatever reevaluation and hunting I can tomorrow/Sunday, I suppose.

LOL, G-Man, just realized you linked your sig and everything.

That's awesome.

G-Man wrote:Lesson learned: Don't doubt G-Man's spreadsheet. EVER.

I don't know about THAT. :P

G-Man wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey G-Man, how do you like the addition to my sig?

Oh man, I really can't believe I mislynched Elo again.

Yours is nice but I like mine better!

Can't blame you.

You'd think by sheer probability I'd be right one of these times, right? Guess not.

Argh. I feel seriously terrible about this. I really thought we had the last mafia there.

I just don't have the time or energy to reevaluate my suspicions right now. Guess I'll try tomorrow.

Elohcin wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Elo, I promise, I owe you an in-person apology in two weeks.

I know that's right.

Well, fuck my Rainbow Reads, I frankly don't even know where that leaves me.

Elo, I promise, I owe you an in-person apology in two weeks.

DDL, I think everyone should vote for anyone so long as they aren't players that either of us are suspecting.

This is my worst baddie hunting since Minecraft Mafia.

DharmaHelper wrote:RIP El Okin.

Indeed.

I love the "YOU FOOL!" at the end.

Hey G-Man, how do you like the addition to my sig?

Oh man, I really can't believe I mislynched Elo again.

RIP Elo.

Sorry about that. :P

Well, I don't know how that happened. I'm an idiot!

Guess I suck at baddie hunting regardless of my methods.

Gotta go, be back around or after EoD.

Ricochet wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
If those lynches had happened in opposite order, I'd be doubting the bussing more, but if we look separately at the contexts of the lynches, and assume espers and Eloh thought they wouldn't have to bus each other in the future, the Sloonei lynch isn't that bad.

That is something I haven't thought about and could be true. I mean, I never read either Eloh or espers as clean after their votes for Sloonei, but it'd be a tactic, nonetheless.

I'm a bit lost as to this point, sorry.

DDL or Rico, can either of you explain this to me?

I also felt like my previous gameplay approach was leaving me consistently paralyzed by analysis and, as a result, marking my play with terrible mafia hunting.

I've, obviously, decided to alter my approach for this Day period.

Thankfully, I don't think the mafia will be alive after Day 5, assuming Elo "wins" the lynch.

I just want to say: I recognize I got incredibly worked up about my thoughts on Elo. I have a really hard time taking a step back when I feel I'm onto something. That said, I've still mulled over Elo's vote and post history/behavior, and I still incredibly believe in my case. No less than before.

Nonetheless, I wanted to at least post to recognize that I'm sure my shotgun of posts likely annoyed some of you, and I can see why.

I had no intentions of derailing the thread; rather, I wanted to absolutely make sure that I made my discovery/thoughts well known, due to my propensity to die at any given point (typically, it's high, but I already had heat on me from DDL going into this lynch, and I'm an easy guy to lynch), as well as due to the fact that many of us were not considering Elo heavily going into this Day period.

G-Man wrote:I'll spam your ass like Rob Soloway
If you vote Elo, I'm looking your way
Word to your mom- my spreadsheet's the bomb
I got more rhymes than BoB's host Dom
And just like the Prodigal Son I've returned
Anyone betting with me- you'll get burned
'Cause I got stats but you ain't got none
If you come to battle bring a shotgun
But if you do you're a fool, 'cause I duel to the death
Trying to step to me you'll take your last breath
I got the skill, come get your fill
'Cause when I place my vote, I vote to kill

Thank you, sir, may I have another?

I just want to say that I'm sorry if I've upset anyone. I'm not trying to upset anyone.

Go ahead and vote me if you wish.

I'm seriously shutting myself away from this thread now. Don't just skim all of my posts as crap. I have real content that I really believe in, or else I would have never said it.

Regarding LoRab though, Russ, I'll at least tell you that she seems like totally normal LoRab to me, in terms of demeanor and handling suspicion.

Russ:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Other useful links:

My response to her case against me at the end of N4

Every time Elo has issued an opinion on me prior to end of N4

Elo's opportunism

ISO on Elo, as of D4 before the vote ended, when I was trying to see all of her behavior from both perspectives

As I said just right above to DDL, I just don't want anyone writing off my points as a NO U. I really want people to read what I have to say. Then, if you've read it with the most open mind possible and you think it's a lot of crock, then that's fine.

Russtifinko wrote:I did a full retread on LoRab. I don't really see much of a baddie angle in her posts. Not that I see a supra town one either, just nothing horrible stands out. Her style reminds me vaguely of Roxy. People who've played with her before, does she usually express so much appreciation about being suspected?

I'm probably ignoring the MP-Elo thing today. Sorry MP, I know you won't like that.

No, I don't like that.

Please fucking at least read what I have to say.

I also firmly believe Elo cast her espers / ika vote purely for the reason that she thinks it was the only way she could get to endgame by herself.

Want proof? Look at the way G-Man and Russ are defending her because of it.

Then, regarding her espers vote on D4, she only cast it after espers's behavior was being called suspicious by the entire thread. I can pull quotes again if you want. Anyway, her vote for espers was actually the LEAST risky move that a teammate could make at that point. It would be much more risky throwing off (like G-Man did onto MM) or casting a vote on LoRab or Cookie, since she could have tied it up, saved espers again, and then once espers eventually flipped, she would have been seen as saving a teammate.

The way she cast the espers / ika vote on D4 was actually brilliant, since it's exactly the move that is currently securing her in everyone's minds right now as NOT an Inmate, but remember that espers had the most votes, tied with DH, on Day 3.

What would have been TRULY risky for her to do would have been to cast that 3rd vote for espers on D3 and sealed his fate then. If she had done that, there's no way I'd be proclaiming her as bad right now, and I'd be in total agreement with you, DDL.

But she didn't do that.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:MP, calm down. I knew you'd be pissed by the NO U point, but I had to point it out.

I have a question for you about Elo. Don't you think Elo's votes are way too risky for Big Figure, specially considering she would be sacrificing both of her teamates?

I'm asking those questions because I'm way more interested in hunting Big Figure now than Moloch, so I want to know what you guys think.

I don't blame you for pointing it out. I'm sorry I'm upset. I just don't want anyone writing off my points as a NO U. I really want people to read what I have to say. Then, if you've read it with the most open mind possible and you think it's a lot of crock, then that's fine.

No, they're not risky. I'm glad you asked, because even I thought earlier in the game they might be risky, but hear me out.

1) First off, this game is a one mafia team only game. As we saw in Guess Who? and Economics, making just one vote to throw a teammate under the bus is actually less risky than defending them, since you control all the NKs. Of course, I realize there's a weird LMS guy in this game that might throw a wrench into that, but since he hasn't NKed yet, let's just assume this is mostly sound.

2) A vote must be examined alongside that player's casting of it in order to determine the strength with which it was cast. Wouldn't you agree? That's why people were calling espers out for Days, since he turned around and voted Sloonei after seeming as though he'd vote somewhere else.

When you look at Elo's posts (here is my ISO) for Sloonei on D1, here's what she says:

Elohcin wrote: I am feeling uneasy about:
G-Man - does not claim to be civ (may be a watchman - those with the additional win condition) but possibly Mafia
Sloonei - Just something about him reads scummy to me. Can't put my finger on it.

Elohcin wrote:Sloonei, as I read all your posts together, I am failing to find anything that sticks out to me as scummy. I am not sure what gave me that vibe while reading the thread. I will table this gut feeling for now.

Elohcin wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Elo, thanks!

How about: Where are you leaning for your vote today? Has it changed at all?

Linki with Ninja

If no one was finding me suspicious, I would most likely vote for G-man or sloonei (I know I said I would table my thoughts on sloonei). But, I am still back and forth on sloonei. He now finds me suspicious b/c I reread him and decided that I couldn't find any hard evidence against him? What?!? I wish G-Man would come in and talk.

But it looks like I may be trying to save myself :/

Why did you read him as "scummy" the first time, then? Moreover, why did you give in to a "vibe" rather than rereading him, if it would have left to the same lack of hard evidence, in theory?

I didn't give into a vibe, I just mentioned it. He challenged me to reread him and I found nothing astoundingly scummy. That was all. But his response to my response IS scummy to me.

MP your case on scotty makes a lot of sense.

Only once Sloonei started receiving heavy heat again.

Elohcin wrote:I voted sloonei b/c of his response to me. That was odd for a civ.

Her vote timing was impeccable, but her reasons are vague, and her distancing is sloppy.

Nonetheless, everyone here except for me and Scotty thinks her votes would have been too risky.

Don't you agree that defending a teammate would have been riskier here?

Elohcin wrote: MP - To answer your question, I don't know how many times I have to tell you all, I was not in my right mind on the eveing of Day 3. I had VERY little sleep the night before and I was so very giddy and tired. Everything was hilarious to me at the time. The fact that you keep harping on it, gives me reason to think you're bad. That, along with DDL's thoughts on your EoD behavior, has caused me to want to reread you. First, DDL's thoughts on you.

This all is BULLSHIT.

If you guys aren't going to cast your votes for Elo today, cast them for me. Please.

I refuse to have my words written off as tunneling or NO U

If a baddie Elo wins this game I will fucking flip

And I am NOT NO Uing her.

Actually read the damn case she made, it's bullshit

She says he reread me, that alone is bullshit. No one has reread me.

Russ

Stop. Stop seeing me as tunneling and read the words I am saying!

Elo's behavior this game is nothing like mind, her voting record is totally different than mine

WTF it does not apply to me!!!!!

Elo voted for someone she thought was super civ on D3

Am I going fucking crazy? How do you all not see it?

I'm staking my reputation right now.

DDL, it wasn't the case on me, though that's what caused me to start rethinking my read of her. It's realizing that she has been placing all of her suspicions opportunistically.

You owe me a gigantic "you were right" when Elo flips mafia.

G-Man, I'm just going to ignore that post, because you're being rude right now.

Rico, as for a #2 candidate from me, it would be Cookie. But I'm sure enough that it's Elo that I cast my vote already.

Now, you all can make up your minds and do whatever analysis you want. I voted already. I have stuff to get done today. I'll be back around EoD.

Other useful links:

My response to her case against me at the end of N4

Every time Elo has issued an opinion on me prior to end of N4

Elo's opportunism

ISO on Elo, as of D4 before the vote ended, when I was trying to see all of her behavior from both perspectives

G-Man wrote:I'll roll out some tin foil at lunch. You can read anything you want into posts and perceived behavior- it's called overanalyzing. Did you learn nothing from taking me on in Economics? Sometimes people act strange for the simple reason that strange behavior keeps you in the game longer.

I personally do not have the time or energy to analyze posts as in-depth as you like to do. I wish I did but I just can't approach the game the way I used to. I went way too far down the rabbit hole in Biblical an I'm seeing where the limits are for my personal level of involvement.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I've been SO wrong before, so anyone who's seen any of my times I've railroaded and been wrong, should know that I should be hesitant to agree to G-Man's bet. I did so with no hesitation.

Oh, I have taken that into consideration. It initially gave me pause as to you being the last Inmate. But you don't strike me as someone who cares about having something silly in your signature. It's all in good fun and you can't be afraid to be wrong in this game or you'll never get far. You're either wrong and just extremely convinced you are right or you are the Inmate and trying to use reverse psychology on us because you are too far down the path to turn back now. I trust my technicolors this time- she's not the Inmate.

G-Man, what you say here is ironic, but it's fine. If you want to trust your list, so be it. But you're missing valuable information and that information is exactly what led Elo to make said votes, i.e., her posts.

I'm not "reading into" anything. In fact, that's what led me to have her in the top of my mafia reads before (instead of at the bottom), because I was figuring "Oh, Elo wouldn't do that" and other such statements.

When you take Elo's behavior at face value, you get someone that:
- D1: Suspected Sloonei for vague reasons after I and others applied pressure to Sloonei
- D1: Backed off of Sloonei suddenly, once I did so, and suspicion for him seemed to dry up
- D1: Voted for Sloonei once Sloonei already had a few votes and suspicion was heavily in his direction again, thanks to Llama

- D2: Opportunistic vote for MM because she "hates" self-votes, even though she previously said she suspects Long Con, yet never gave substantiation

- D3: Cast a vote for me, despite multiple iterations of believe I'm civilian, even in response to me questioning her AFTER the vote
- D3: She said that, with a "water gun" to her head, she would have voted G-Man
- D3: She claims she was just "messing with me", yet I could have easily died that lynch, since the player who died only had 2 votes
- D3: She refused to vote for her teammate, espers, this is key since espers didn't die only because of a COIN FLIP

- D4: She says "LoRab is one of the last two baddie members"
- D4: She votes espers / ika ONLY AFTER it is incredibly apparent that ika is going down, before that she does not show any intention to vote for him

These statement are NOT reading into anything. They are NOT tunneling.

They are facts. If you don't believe me, read her posts for yourself. If you think I have misrepresented any of them, please let me know. I have read all of her posts ISO twice now and firmly believe I have not.

I'm out of the thread now. I've made my case. Elo is mafia. Read her posts for yourself and make up your own mind.

Scotty, back me up here, buddy.

I've been SO wrong before, so anyone who's seen any of my times I've railroaded and been wrong, should know that I should be hesitant to agree to G-Man's bet. I did so with no hesitation.

If you folks ISO Elo and seriously don't see the most suspicious baddie game out of any of the players here, then I don't know what else to say.

I've said enough on the matter. I 100% want Elo to be lynched today. You folks do you want. But if she doesn't get lynched today and I get NKed because of it, and then she ends up being mafia, I will be not happy.

G-Man wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.

Epignosis bussed DDL by being the first to vote for him on D1 in Guess Who?. It guaranteed him a victory. Elo hosted that game. She clearly is trying to change up her baddie style here, and she did so sloppily.

I realize that vote analysis can take you only so far. This time, I'm using it to exonerate someone instead of indict them. There's a difference. Epi and Golden tricked me good in Guess Who but there were four teammates and no serial killer in that game. Moloch is an unknown and there are 3 inmates. With numbers and rivals like that, I can't see the Inmates being as brazen and reckless as Guess Who.

Also, our terms are binding no matter the outcome of the game and regardless of whether Elo is actually lynched. While I am putting my bossy pants back on today, please know that I am not posting out of spite or bitterness. I'm saying all these things with a smile on my face because, for the first time all game, I am having fun.

It doesn't matter what you can see. Stop theorizing how YOU would think the baddies would play, and LOOK at players' behavior.

Open your mind. It was only once I threw away Elo's meta that I realized she's playing a suspicious baddie game right in front of all of our faces.