The Syndicate

I still need to update the HoF. Should be later tonight.

Nicely done on the LMS role, LoRab, wouldn't have called you for that. Shame we never lynched a pig.

I was disappointed I didn't get lynched. Figures I finally am a bomb and I couldn't build momentum for my own lynch.

I really thought that D1 self-vote would do it. Then LoRab thought it would be funny to make me do it again.

It was. :P

Russtifinko wrote:Wow! We got completely shellacked. Rarely have I seen such utter domination from baddies. And my next two suspects were a civ and the indie.

Well played, you putrid piggies.

Indeed. I really tried while I was alive too... but this game was like Super Meat Boy level of baddie dominance.

Well done, mafia team. Particularly Boomslang -- never saw that coming!

Who was everyone?

Well, that's disappointing, but not exactly surprising.

Best of luck to the other civilians.

Alright, folks, I have to go... I have a lot to do, sorry, and thought I'd be able to engage in more conversation here during N3, but Recruitment IV has soaked up much of my mafia time. I won't be back until D4, probably not even until the latter part of it. Hopefully I survive the Night. If I don't, please heavily consider everyone, but most particularly Elo, LoRab, and Made. Put them in the spotlight. Make them explain their actions. Dig through their posts. There is certainly much contradictory and opportunistic behavior that came to light during the D3 lynch that we cannot let go to waste.

If I had to guess on the 4th teammate, I'd say it's Russ (1st guess) or DFaraday (2nd guess). Russ defended Elo incredibly heavily against me in Watchmen. During D3, when Elo was being discussed, he seemed more open-minded, and super wishywashy on her one way or the other when you illustrated excellent points against her. His tone was also distinctly different, more nonchalant (with the "haha") than it was in Watchmen (very indignant and defensive of the fact that Elo is an easy target). DFaraday is my 2nd guess mostly by process of elimination and due to the fact that his votes on Elo would nearly exonerate him from being a teammate (again, assuming Elo flips mafia) by normal circumstances. DFaraday's behavior has been very firm and decisive this game, even almost thread-leader esque, which is a stark contrast from years of games I've played with him. Note also that during The Game, DFaraday was identified as having a lot of civilian cred, as all 5 players noted that they find him civilian. Which teammate therefore would be the best one to vote Elo early on D3? DFaraday.

FZ. wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
FZ. wrote: I can't really say I'm surprised. I believe we've lost 4 civvies already. And once again, the reason for voting TB sucked. I'm suspicious of everyone who voted for her. Heck, I'm suspicious of everyone.
I know the feel... many players, myself included, have been acting objectively suspiciously this game.

I'm very sad about the result, but I do think D3 gave us some valuable information.

Do you want to talk out some suspicions? It's possible one of us will die tonight, seeing as though we're the most talkative players left.
Sure, let's talk. What valuable information do you think it gave us?

MM, why do you think it makes llama look better?

It told us that Made is bad.

Look at this here. During the game, Made was one of only two players to say TinyBubbles was civilian. Yet he jumped on the wagon yesterday despite elaborating thoroughly that he heavily suspects me and you.

I also find it noteworthy that Made said one of either Elo or boo has to be bad. boo died N2. But has Made said anything else about Elo? Conveniently, no, especially when Elo very well could have died yesterday during D3.

Then think of the fact that LoRab kept making statements during yesterday's lynch about how she had no idea about Elo, and consider that LoRab was really quick to turn on Lacey earlier when I mentioned I strongly thought Lacey was bad. Has LoRab pursued those thoughts any further, despite the fact that her exception expired during D3? No.

Yes, we may have lynched TinyBubbles thanks to my push that way, but we also uncovered contradictory intentions from Made and LoRab. I also firmly believe that TinyBubbles was sacrificed to save Elo, and that Elo's behavior has had the classic mafia element of overexplanation. Her behavior has been the very definition of opportunistic, yet the mafia took advantage of the fact that TinyBubbles kept being compared to Elo by me.

I feel very strongly that Elo is mafia; by extension, Made and LoRab are also incredibly likely teammates.

FZ. wrote: I can't really say I'm surprised. I believe we've lost 4 civvies already. And once again, the reason for voting TB sucked. I'm suspicious of everyone who voted for her. Heck, I'm suspicious of everyone.

I know the feel... many players, myself included, have been acting objectively suspiciously this game.

I'm very sad about the result, but I do think D3 gave us some valuable information.

Do you want to talk out some suspicions? It's possible one of us will die tonight, seeing as though we're the most talkative players left.

Made, can you elaborate on why exactly you suspect me? Do you have anything for me to respond to?

lipsticklacey wrote:I apologize for missing the vote. Our cable/internet went out around four, and we just got it back. Will catch up on everyone's posts.

RIP, TinyBubbles

I look forward to your thoughts.

Russtifinko wrote:Blooper's non-matching number of mafia feels civ-isn to me in and of itself. I actually find it slightly suspicious that Made (it was Made, right?) had exactly 4 baddie hunches. That feels calculated, like it's something a baddie would think about during the game to avoid looking weird, while a civ might not care so much. MP, can you elaborate on whether anything like that has helped in The Game before? And in general on what results you've seen from it? Is it generally used for immediate results, or do you let things play out a few days to see where a baddie might be bussing or buddying or whatever?

Russ, first off, it's great to see you in full form here, buddy.

Interesting observation re: Made. What do you make of Made being heavily suspicious of boo, then boo dying overnight? Does that lend support to your thoughts on Made being bad?

Good question, I'm not really sure whether that's helped in The Game before. I hope to utilize The Game going forward, however, and see if I can't get some good data from it after enough samples. I've only seen it in Economics and two games on RYM (one of which I subbed out of).

From what I can tell, seems like it can be used for both, but more so the latter. It seems most helpful in terms of looking back in reflection on what players thought, and how they justified what they thought, versus how they vote the subsequent lynch or two. Does that make sense?

FZ. wrote:Elo's suspicion is so convenient. But I'm going to look at others as well.

Agreed. I really want to lynch Elo tomorrow; I think there might have been an effort to save her.

LoRab wrote:Hopping in to say hi. In the midst of a summer cold, which is no fun at all. And awake moments are ability to think are both fairly low right now. Not sure where my vote will go. Splints is possible--other than agreeing on MM and then saying she wasn't being blendy, she hasn't said much. Which sounds more like baddie splints than civie splints. Tiny Bubbles seems like an easy set up because of the drive by votes, but also that is suspicious--and folks have made a good point about non-participation. Elo, I have no idea--need to try to reread her posts. Lacey, still unsure about. She's pinged me, for sure, but it could just be newness.

Also, note this.

FZ. wrote:RIP Boo Even though I wasn't 100% sure you were a civ, you are definitely a loss for the game.

I'm not sure I agree with voting for Bubbles. Even though her drive by votes are seriously annoying, I don't think it's enough to make me vote for her. If she's a lazy mafia, like MP thinks, then I'd rather find a different mafia. In my book, if you lose to a non participant baddie, it's like you win, because that's just lame. It's bad when you're a civvie too, but non participant players help the baddies, and not the other way around. Just my two cents on the matter. If she ends up being bad, we've taken another civvie down.

Now, can we just once make a thought out lynch?

I'm going to go over the players again.

[Expletive deleted], I should have waited for you to post first; this totally would have convinced me to think about my vote more. I knew I had a busy-as-[expletive deleted] day though and I was SO BOTHERED by TinyBubbles drive-by voting again. I couldn't fathom why a civilian would do that after she just got reamed for it.

Votes can't be analyzed in isolation for any semblance of effectiveness; they must be analyzed alongside a player's content. Otherwise, there would be no point to a thread.

I feel really nervous about TinyBubbles given how today went down. I'm sorry I voted so early, but I've been up since 2:30AM and didn't think I'd be back in time. I'll elaborate more on my thoughts when I'm not absolutely mentally and emotionally exhausted.

I don't really have any time at the moment, but I want to at least say that drive-by posting and NOT participating in thread discussion is not at all similar to self-voting yet participating in thread discussion as much as I have.

TinyBubbles just committed another drive by vote...

How is this acceptable? If she's a civilian at this point then she's clearly a liability, unwilling to even post her suspicions as she votes for them. Hopefully she's just a lazy mafia.

She gets my vote. Just popping in before teaching, so apologies in advance for my absence today. Long day ahead of me

Anyway, I likely won't be back until D3, if I'm still alive, so... if I do die, my top 3 suspects are:

1) TinyBubbles
2) Elohcin
3) Hard to decide... Maybe thellama73. Definitely consider lynching 1 and 2 more heavily, but consider everyone.

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:What do players think of the fact that Blooper was hyper-concerned about having too many mafia reads? Did her reads seem to develop organically or in a genuine fashion or did they seem forced?
You're exaggerating MP, but I think she was being genuine. I'm pretty sure this exercise was new to her, and the fact that she continued to make baddie reads even after she realized she had eclipsed the mafia team's number makes it genuine.

I've never participated in this exercise before either though. I've just seen it done multiple times.
I know what I'm doing.

For the record, I didn't see anything wrong with it either. Just wanted to see how she'd respond.
I don't like this post one bit. It seems wishy-washy to me which smells bad. Then again, I am always pinged at least a little by MP.

Wishy-washy?

What's wishy-washy about it?

FZ. wrote:MP, I didn't say I was so worried about your actions surrounding the game. I said there was a part of me who's a little paranoid by the fact that this game makes you look quite civvie like, but in fact, could easily be a clever way to seem helpful. Especially when you left the "conclusions" to us. That said, it was an interesting game, but I agree with whoever said that forcing someone to make a civ/mafia decision on the spot may not reveal that much. I know that for me, one minute I think someone is bad, and then they come on and say something that makes me feel better. So the timing of the game makes all the difference.

Got it. I don't disagree about the timing. It's why I wanted the game to occur close to EoD and relatively early on but not too early (D2 or D3). And, yeah, given it is limiting, it does force players to make a gut decision in the moment. That's a pro/con, depending on how you look at it.

If you think I'm seeming helpful without actually being helpful, that's fine. Not sure what else I can say to that.

Linki: Llama is on vacation until Tuesday, but still trying to keep up with both this game and Recruitment.

FZ. wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Why aren't you recognizing the fact that I just stated an opinion on Daisy that she seemed incredibly genuine?
Elo, can you answer this question specifically please?
I don't really understand what you are asking here. Can you rephrase?
After the game was over, I mentioned that I found Daisy's posts to be absolutely genuine and that I felt infinitely better about her. Why didn't you take that opinion into consideration when you voted for her?
B/c I had been gone all day and not read the thread. I voted without thinking. I thought I explained this already. Honestly, I don't even know what "game" you are talking about. I am just sitting down after church, grocery shopping, and feeding the kids lunch. I have less than two hours to catch up, talk about my suspicions, work out, and get myself and the kids ready for another birthday dinner. I'm doing my best even though I know my best is NOT good enough atm. I do apologize. At least I am honest.
I don't mean to be picky, but you didn't really discuss your suspicions. All you keep doing is saying how busy you are, and wasting your time defending yourself instead of actually contributing to the game. And no, saying you're going to tie the votes to make it interesting, is not what I consider contributing.

QFT

Noted, thanks DF.

Elo and TinyBubbles need to show an impressive amount of town mindset over the coming cycle for me to consider a vote for anyone other than either of them.

DFaraday wrote:I feel like some of the suspicions of Splints are disingenuous. Her 3 posts don't strike me as suspicious enough to sway nearly the entire thread into believing she's bad, so I'm guessing one or two of the people saying they feel baddie for her are just going with the flow.

My main suspicion is still Elo. I still feel that she was bandwagoning, and has not presented much of a satisfactory explanation since.

Which one or two seem most likely to be going with the flow?

LoRab, your explanation is noted, and seems reasonable to me.

Boomslang wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:What do players think of the fact that Blooper was hyper-concerned about having too many mafia reads? Did her reads seem to develop organically or in a genuine fashion or did they seem forced?
I hardly call it "hyper concerned." Just paranoid of almost everyone
I'm not referring to the fact that you had many mafia reads; rather, that you twice expressed concern over your number of mafia reads.

Why were you concerned about having too many mafia reads?
I just want to point out that this game of yours forces the players to resolve their indecisions into a binary system: civ or mafia. You're creating a tension between the knowledge that there are only so many mafia and the fact that, at this point in the game, people have more suspects than that number. I think it's natural to feel uneasy when listing out your suspicions reveals you're still a way off from narrowing the field.

I think so as well.

TinyBubbles wrote:
simply put without having formed an opinion of my own (because i didn't read all the posts), i put my faith in the majority's. the likelihood of the biggest bandwagon being full of mafia votes seemed unlikely. I'm reluctant to miss a vote since my participation score is already low ><

anyway why do you think my posts are more civvie like? thats quite an assumption, i am not sure what it says of your orientation

i'm somewhat caught up on the thread now, RIP scotty & Daisy, feeling good about LoRab and boom, neutral on Lacey, slight suspicions on MP and fingersplints

Why? Why? Why? Why? and Why?

Please explain why you are feeling that way about every single player you listed.

FZ. wrote: MP, thanks for addressing my questions. You seem pretty civvie to me, but a part of me is paranoid you're playing mind games on us. First, with the most uncharacteristic vote in the game, and then, with this game. Analysing the results like you did, without giving a bottom line about what you thought all this meant worries me. So you observed some things in terms of patterns. Instead of asking us what we think about the game, why not tell us what it made you feel about all the people who participated in the game.

Good, you should be paranoid of me. You should be paranoid of everyone.

You want me to spoonfeed the thread about what I think the game means? You don't think I or others can gather useful information by seeing what other players think of it before I voice my opinion? I think there is valid content in sheer analysis and observations. Just because I didn't say "here's exactly what I think right away" doesn't mean I'm hiding something or that I don't have a civilian perspective. Why does it worry you?

The Game is still experimental and I'm not sure exactly what everything means 100% myself, which is part of the reason I asked everyone. I've only seen it played out a few times, and so has JJJ, the person who showed it to me. It's not like anything is a clear-cut thing.

The thread should be a discussion, anyway, not just me telling everyone what I think of everything or everyone else. There's not near enough independent thinking going on as it is, with players voting with ridiculous reasons, including Daisy.

FZ. wrote:RIP Daisy

I wish people wouldn't hurry with their votes when they're not changeable, or stop by in the last minute. It ends up with terrible lynches.

People, if you have to vote, vote a suspicion you have. Vote something. Stop voting for "the player with the most votes". It's Day 2. You should have a thought on some other player by now. That's bullshit. Elo and TinyBubbles should almost be lynched immediately on sheer principle.

That is completely unacceptable.

Made wrote:Re MP:
boo wrote:
Boomslang wrote:
Elohcin wrote:Well, I think I will vote for Boomslang. This is his first game in a long time I believe. I was also thinking about giving it to a newbie to make their first experience more interesting, but then again, I want to make sure it goes to someone I am almost sure will be a participating player.

Linki: Hello llama. I'm surprised. I would think you would believe that it would be a better choice than anyone else, not only just as good.
Well, I am honored. I do plan to be pretty active in this game, although keeping up with Recruitment as well is going to be a bear... Lucky for me, I at least have today off.

Going to second Elo's vote for Boomslang. I hear he's a pretty stand-up guy :P
*note to self, Eloh votes for someone D0 after they've been away for a while, before they've posted at all, saying she wants to vote for someone she thinks will be active. In a game with friggin' llama and MM in it. Just saying.*

*2nd note to self. Both of them make D1 votes I distrusted*

*third note to self: look up self in a dictionary, because I haven't actually heard it both ways.*
Ice Bear just can't see an interaction like this happening between two mafia. Might just be naive, but this is enough for Ice Bear, for now anyways.

This is a good point, Made. I think I agree with you. It could be possible that both are mafia, still, but it would have to be a well-planned conversation that I don't see happening either.

Made wrote:To further elaborate on Ice Bear's "reads" game, as Ice Bear see it, Either Elo is mafia or Boo is mafia, but not both. This of course means that at least one player is currently fooling Ice Bear.
Further thinking required.

Why?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Elohcin - her vote at the end, and the later reasoning to follow.
fingersplints - her Day 1 vote
LoRab - her defence of lacey for being new (though I guess they are friends)
Russtifinko - I don't really know why.
llama - everything

I would also like to hear yours MP.

fingersplints - D1 vote, general lack of posting
LoRab - the defense of Lacey, then agreeing with me on Lacey possibly being mafia when she had no previous inclination, yet reluctant to vote for her
nijuu - I no longer have a GTH mafia read on Blooper
Russ - I can't remember a single opinion he has had yet
Llama - His TinyBubbles suspicion was incredibly weak and struck me as forced/insincere and he could have been saved today
TinyBubbles - DRIVE-BY VOTE, nuff said

Metalmarsh89 wrote:MP, would you consider Spacedaisy to be an easy vote this day phase?

To some degree, yeah. Not as easy as Scotty D1, but relatively easy.

Mind elaborating on your mafia reads, good sir?

I again apologize for leaving you out of that. Ugh. Incomplete information now.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:What do players think of the fact that Blooper was hyper-concerned about having too many mafia reads? Did her reads seem to develop organically or in a genuine fashion or did they seem forced?
You're exaggerating MP, but I think she was being genuine. I'm pretty sure this exercise was new to her, and the fact that she continued to make baddie reads even after she realized she had eclipsed the mafia team's number makes it genuine.

I've never participated in this exercise before either though. I've just seen it done multiple times.

I know what I'm doing.

For the record, I didn't see anything wrong with it either. Just wanted to see how she'd respond.

nijuukyugou wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:What do players think of the fact that Blooper was hyper-concerned about having too many mafia reads? Did her reads seem to develop organically or in a genuine fashion or did they seem forced?
I hardly call it "hyper concerned." Just paranoid of almost everyone

I'm not referring to the fact that you had many mafia reads; rather, that you twice expressed concern over your number of mafia reads.

Why were you concerned about having too many mafia reads?

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Why aren't you recognizing the fact that I just stated an opinion on Daisy that she seemed incredibly genuine?
Elo, can you answer this question specifically please?
I don't really understand what you are asking here. Can you rephrase?

After the game was over, I mentioned that I found Daisy's posts to be absolutely genuine and that I felt infinitely better about her. Why didn't you take that opinion into consideration when you voted for her?

What do players think of the fact that Blooper was hyper-concerned about having too many mafia reads? Did her reads seem to develop organically or in a genuine fashion or did they seem forced?

MovingPictures07 wrote:Why aren't you recognizing the fact that I just stated an opinion on Daisy that she seemed incredibly genuine?

[/quote]

Elo, can you answer this question specifically please?

If I had to guess, I would bet that Daisy used her power N1, confirming boo's theory.

That said, Elo's votes are far from the only two in a row that are terrible, including mine (which I take full responsibility for) and Daisy's, and Daisy turned out to be a civilian.

RIP Daisy.

Elo, I understand your RL situation. Thanks for elaborating. Your vote reasoning for both votes is pretty terrible though, no offense intended, and it puts everyone in a tough spot if you actually are a civilian. I hope you can elaborate on suspects.

MM, it was totally unintentional. [expletive redacted]. I don't know how that happened. I thought I copied the player list.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm annoyed that you did it when I was not around MP. Now you guys go and get all chatty and stuff.
My bad. I would have preferred to have more folks, but at least it was run now.

I suppose we could always do another, but it wouldn't have the same impact.
If you want to, but I think daytime is more ideal for it. Plus I'm still catching up on the last couple pages. Believe it or not, there was far more material to catch up on in this thread than the Recruitment thread.

Day (as in mafia Day) time or day time?

Elohcin wrote:I'll exlpaing my vote later...gotta run

Drive-by votes are not cool. It takes two seconds to explain your vote. You had time to type that but not add an extra sentence?

Why aren't you recognizing the fact that I just stated an opinion on Daisy that she seemed incredibly genuine?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm annoyed that you did it when I was not around MP. Now you guys go and get all chatty and stuff.

My bad. I would have preferred to have more folks, but at least it was run now.

I suppose we could always do another, but it wouldn't have the same impact.

The Game Results:

Click here to access the results spreadsheet.

Analysis and observations:
- All five game participants agreed that Boomslang, DFaraday, and FZ. seem civilian.
- Every participant, except for one, agreed that fingersplints seems mafia.
- It is therefore, VERY interesting, that fingersplints has hardly been discussed today (if at all, really, besides FZ. mentioning her), and only has one vote (which FZ. just cast, after the conclusion of this game).
- In contrast, the players with the two most votes at the moment, with three each, (thellama73 and Spacedaisy) do not have the same degree of perception. 3 out of 5 players believed Llama seemed more mafia, whereas only 1 thought Spacedaisy seemed mafia.

- Blooper seemed hyper-concerned with the fact that her mafia reads outnumbered her civilian reads. She was the only participant to name MORE gun-to-head mafia reads than civilian reads.
- Made named exactly four mafia reads, which is the number of mafia in this game.
- FZ. was the only player who occasionally gave answers that were not clear cut, with the exception of one addendum by Made (when he said he wanted to change his read on Elo to Indy).

- Both FZ. and I changed our minds on several of our reads when we were forced to decide, most notably on Spacedaisy (from mafia to civilian), who could die today, as well as on LoRab (from civilian to mafia). Personally, I would have still read Daisy as mafia if she had not posted what she did during The Game.
- Other than that, I did not notice any drastic shifts in opinion from any other player, but it would be interesting to compare these GTH responses with anything these participants said previously.

What did you all think of this exercise? What do you make of the results?

Before I post The Game results, I want to respond to a few posts.

First off, FZ., I'm not sure what alignment Elo would choose. The very fact that she came out and admitted in the thread that she and Epi get to pick roles would generally be considered a mafia NO NO, in my opinion, since it's an unspoken rule of fairness that all roles should be randomized. I know it's discussed and many folks believe that some hosts tweak roles thereafter, but nonetheless, I think it was in bad taste that Elo admitted such a fact. It's entirely unfair to all of the other players who do not receive the luxury to pick their roles. I avoided discussing it earlier because I've been busy and didn't want to cause any trouble, but I want to make my thoughts known on the matter.

As to whether Elo picked mafia or civilian, it's a WIFOM game, and I was a bit pinged by the fact that she wanted us to be trapped by the WIFOM. I really don't know what she would pick. What do you think?

lipsticklacey wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
lipsticklacey wrote:
Because it's apparently the key to appearing suspicious, which is kinda ridiculous, but okay, I get it.

Sure, I'm up for a game. I'd like to know what it is first, so I don't end up like Michael Douglas, but okay!
So you're concerned about appearing suspicious?

The game is on, if FZ. and Blooper are willing. Anyone else want in? Quickly.
Only so far as I'd like to keep playing, and appearing suspicious seems to get you lynched.

Also, so glad you got the movie reference.

Do you think civilians have anything to lose though by being lynched?

Spacedaisy wrote:Now you've make me sad, voting for me lke that. The situation is like this; I am quite busy just trying to keep up in recruitment. I serpent my morning with my husband because we didn't get a Kk of time together yesterday. And I didn't want to miss the vote. So I voted for Made because the third person ice bear stuff annoyed me. It is pretty much a random vote I'm not bag though, so lynching me is a waste of time. But I'm loving keeping everyone guessing with my unexpected vote.

Spacedaisy wrote:
FZ. wrote:Daisy. You're here now. So you didn't miss the vote. There's plenty of time. Why not wait with the vote and save it for later just in case you had more time to read?

I thought civ, but now I'm thinking she is trying to look good by defending a civ, so maybe mafia

civ
If my typos didn't give it away, I'm posting from my phone, which is difficult. On my lunch break, which I never know if I am even going to get one. I didn't want to risk missing it, so I voted. Pretty straightforward actually.

What is this game nonsense?

Hey, you're supposed to be working. :P

This first post made me feel infinitely better about Daisy. (Second post I get null read on its own). It's just my intuition, but sincerity just oozes from this. I can vouch that we did spend time together this morning, as well; since I've been so busy with PhD work and she's been busy with her job, it's been tougher to make time.

The Game is complete!

Thanks to those who participated!

I'll compile the results and post my analysis shortly.

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