The Syndicate

Golden wrote:Silverwolf's vote for ika is an interesting turn.

I feel much better about silverwolf than I do about ika.

ika wrote: but my phraseing can eb odd

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:With the Warden and DDL both camping on sig, definitely count me out of supporting that lynch.

Moved my vote to Boomslang because I'll do anything this prisoner tells me.

Scotty wrote:

Warden wrote:I hope I didn't miss the opportunity to cast a vote. Are we lynching sig or ika?

This is the literal exercise of WIFOM.

I am choosing to disregard everything he writes so as not to influence the game.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Yes I do. We lynched a baddie because of luck, and statistically that shouldn't happen often again.

It's a bad plan, just like lynching at random is a bad plan. The accuracy is not reliable, the reads by association are not reliable, everything is not realiable. One black swan does not mean you have a good chance of finding black swans in the wild.

There was nothing "random" about it. There were concrete reasons produced in the thread that specifically favored moving the lynch to Fuzz, and numerous players took the opportunity. They didn't pull his name out of a hat. They didn't play powerball and end up with F-U-Z-Z. Nobody advocated CFDing to someone "at random". Of course that would be silly. You're criticizing a strategy that didn't even exist in this game.

I'll let you answer to Epi before I carry on with this.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I still think it's a stupid plan, btw.

Why?

Maybe ISO my posts. I'm pretty sure I had a long debate with Golden on Night 2 about it.

I'm not gonna reproduce every response I made during this game because suddenly there are 15 new players who hadn't been playing with me before. It's not the idea I make of a fun game. If you guys want to lynch me for that, go ahead.

I'm not asking you to reproduce any responses. I honestly don't believe you. I think you're holding steadfast to a perspective you espoused prior to the CFD, and then you felt like you had to stick to your guns after the fact to alleviate the bad looks it'd produce. To think it was "a stupid plan" after the results it produced is frankly nonsense and I don't think you really believe that.

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Voting for Dragon D. Luffy now. His CFD behavior was really bad, and his interactions with Fuzz are also less than inspiring. This will make me the only vote on DDL right now, despite numerous people suspecting him to some degree. Why?

I've been reading him as town, but the above contradiction you bring up is something I want to see him reply too.

Sloonei wrote:Question for other active players: how much stock are we putting into what the prisoners are saying? It seems to me that they're only going to be hre a short time. If that is the case, what is their motivation? Are there teams among them? I would expect that at least some of them are here to help, and in that case I think a fresh set of eyes on the events in the game can be a great thing. They might see things that we all overlooked.
For that reason I am willing to be on board with an Enrique/Boomslang lynch. I have not stopped reading him as bad since Day 2, but I admit I largely forgot he was even here until today, and now at least two prisoners are saying he looks bad as well, presumably without any bias.

Epignosis wrote:

indiglo wrote:^^ Does that post look weird to anyone else?


Linki~

Ok, apparently yes. WTF???

It's a known spoiler tag issue. I initially had the same problem when I was previewing my response to Chronos and you- had to take out one of the spoiled portions.

Epignosis wrote:Hey Prisoner 920077, do they call you Chronos in the slammer?

I left work under the impression that I would be casting my vote to save my own ass. When I got home, I saw that was still the case. I started reading, and when I went to the next page, I saw that everybody was jumping on Fuzz. At one point, I noticed there was a tie, and I like breaking ties. But I soon realized there was no way I was going to be able to read all that before the deadline, and I refuse to lynch someone if I've not read for myself. So I voted zebra and fucked off.

Some world we're living in when the prisoners become the District Attorneys, eh?

indiglo wrote:

Sloonei wrote:Speaking of indiglo, I want her to name a suspect or two who is/are not currently being widely suspected in the thread.

Well, I don't know if I can do that specifically, I don't have a checklist of all names mentioned in the thread so far... but I can tell you who I do plan to look at closer, will that work?


SW mentioned possible buddying by ika indicating he may be scum. I am very interested to hear back from her on that.

I want to ISO TH to try to suss out thoughts there. Scotty too, as well.

The case one of the prisoners made on Epi was interesting. I've had my doubts there, I'd like to ISO him. When we played Rocky and Bullwinkle together, I felt very strongly he was civ because he was very active, made good points, and we were always on the same page with our thinking. This game has been totally different than that. (As far as his activity goes, there's not a ton and I don't recall it being quality either, and I feel like I'm not seeing logical, analytical Epi as much.) So I'd definitely like to look there more.

indiglo wrote:Oh! That! That was a pun! Like when you read it to yourself, it was supposed to sound like "Epi knows his mafia, but his puns are terrible". Clearly the pun was a bad one, but it was just a throw away Day 1 vote.

As for not declaring that I strongly civ read you in that game... well, see my theory post above about strongly declaring town reads in a game. I still have a hard time with that in games, as my instinct is to protect my town reads as much as possible.

Sloonei wrote:

indiglo wrote:Not a bad idea at all, I think. Especially after the Gleam lynch (well, at least for me).


Wait... blue? Is that like, my dark green? Like, confirmed civ in your mind? Or did I miss a whole shade in the rainbow list? I did dark green, light green, yellow, orange, red.

I am going Dark Blue = 100% confirmed, light blue = Strong town, Dark green = moderate, Light green = slight. Yellow is neutral/null.

Sloonei wrote:*snipped for space*

I am curious and we're in the neighborhood, so what is your read on me?

Prisoner 331347 wrote:This one has spent much time trying to catch up with current events. I do not like the results of the most recent days. Not one bit.

In looking at the most recent lynch, I cannot help but think that there may be something in the case made against this agleaminranks. This indiglo character pointed out a handful of inconsistencies amongst agleaminranks' posts, and concluded that he must be bad. I am inclined to agree the case against this agleaminranks looks somewhat damning from a typical civilian perspective, though I am not inclined to agree that inconsistency is the tell sign of a cop in disguise.

That being said, this one thinks that the people who sided with this agleaminranks fellow in the late hours of Day 4 are of suspicion. Hypothetically, a cop would be aware that agleaminranks was a mafia member, and expressing sympathy for him looks quite good to civilians in the wake of the revealing of his identity. It would be a daring place for a bad guy to hide, but a practical one for someone looking to stay active and yet outside of the crosshairs. We will be examining them closely before deciding upon a vote.

Sloonei wrote:

indiglo wrote:

Sloonei wrote:Speaking of indiglo, I want her to name a suspect or two who is/are not currently being widely suspected in the thread.

Well, I don't know if I can do that specifically, I don't have a checklist of all names mentioned in the thread so far... but I can tell you who I do plan to look at closer, will that work?


SW mentioned possible buddying by ika indicating he may be scum. I am very interested to hear back from her on that.

I want to ISO TH to try to suss out thoughts there. Scotty too, as well.

The case one of the prisoners made on Epi was interesting. I've had my doubts there, I'd like to ISO him. When we played Rocky and Bullwinkle together, I felt very strongly he was civ because he was very active, made good points, and we were always on the same page with our thinking. This game has been totally different than that. (As far as his activity goes, there's not a ton and I don't recall it being quality either, and I feel like I'm not seeing logical, analytical Epi as much.) So I'd definitely like to look there more.

I am also happy to revisit both Nero and Enrique (I have a tab open to reply about something on Enrique, so I'll get there, but will put his name here as well.).

Then we get into all the low posters. I think it is highly likely that there is a scum or two amongst them. My only problem there is that there won't be much to work with, so it feels more like a gamble, like leaving it up to chance as opposed to good detective work. But ISOing more than one of them won't take long, so I think why not do it.


I'm not sure if this is what you are looking for, but I won't just pull names out of thin air... so there you have it.


Oh, I opened this tab a long time ago... look at that linki!

This was exactly what I was looking for, thank you.
I backed off of Epi a few days ago because he toss a bunch of substantial posts into the thread and seemed to be getting on track, but then he vanished again. I understand busy Epi has other things to do, but I've lost the slight town read I was starting to have on him earlier.

I'm pretty sure you also mentioned something about me possibly being a suspect earlier. Am I remembering correctly? If so, what was that about?

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 740359 wrote:Enrique received no permanent vote after Day 2, it seems? How did he or what persuaded the entire thread to not flail him for his anti-CFD stance on Day 2?

Boomslang replaced him and said nothing, so we all just forgot, I think.

sig wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Checking Nerolunar's interactions with Fuzz:

Spoiler: show

Nerolunar wrote:I see RadicalFuzz is online. What are your suspects and general thoughts on what happened at EoD and from there on?

I doubt Fuzz was the only person Nero happened to see online, so it could be noteworthy that he felt the need to prod him like this. It was his only such prod.

This was Nero's only mention of Fuzz, and Fuzz never mentioned Nero in any non-OT text. It appears he voted early for ika on the day of their tally duel and the vote stayed there for the long haul. The total absence of interactivity, combined with an uninspiring vote and the specificity of the above prod choice make me willing to call Nerolunar a suspect. I could see him as a team mate of Fuzz.

What do you make of his interaction with LC especially considering that LC flipped as a BTSC role. I thought Nero was mafia until I saw his hard early defense of LC, it wouldn't make much sense unless he knew LC was civ. Mainly his interaction with Chaindeath over LC.

Someone pointed out I should come out of my shell. I've been making cases, but have also for the last two phases defending myself. This leaves little room for case building.

Sloonei wrote:Speaking of indiglo, I want her to name a suspect or two who is/are not currently being widely suspected in the thread.

Prisoner 813142 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I for one welcome our jailbird colleagues and invite them to join me in a drink.

Will we be toasting to good or evil?

Golden wrote:If the 14 of you actually account for 14 votes, that would be massively unbalanced. I'm guessing that you don't.

a2thezebra wrote:

indiglo wrote:

Prisoner 813142 wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:

indiglo wrote:@ Zebra - I'm pretty sure that's why many of us switched off of sig yesterday and onto Gleam. Granted, we were wrong... but hopefully you get the point. He hasn't been an easy lynch by any means. I talked myself out of it, as did many others for reasons you mentioned in your post.

But why gleam? Why not someone who was actually suspicious? For every CFD where you luck out (Fuzz) you get ten where you don't.

Okay, hold up. I don't speak freaky-deaky Dutch, okay? What on earth is CFF?

CFD = Chinese Fire Drill

Basically a very last minute, End of Day band wagon to lynch someone.

The Fuzz lynch was a CFD, and Zebra keeps saying the Gleam lynch was too, but it wasn't. There was a case made (by me) - it was wrong, but it wasn't a CFD.

Linki~

Just because a case was made doesn't mean that it wasn't a CFD.

Prisoner 813142 wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:

indiglo wrote:@ Zebra - I'm pretty sure that's why many of us switched off of sig yesterday and onto Gleam. Granted, we were wrong... but hopefully you get the point. He hasn't been an easy lynch by any means. I talked myself out of it, as did many others for reasons you mentioned in your post.

But why gleam? Why not someone who was actually suspicious? For every CFD where you luck out (Fuzz) you get ten where you don't.

Okay, hold up. I don't speak freaky-deaky Dutch, okay? What on earth is CFF?

Golden wrote:

Prisoner 740359 wrote:

Golden wrote:

Prisoner 740359 wrote:Golden is the Warden, taunting the escapees with his pointless role-guessing shout-outs. Discuss.

I don't think they are pointless. I mean, they might not be useful, but from my perspective the point is I'm having fun trying to guess.

If they serve no point to the game, they're pointless.

I don't like you. But also you should use a dictionary. The words 'to the game' won't be in there.

Anyway, stop trying to poo poo me trying to bring some levity. It will make me lose that funniest poster award all over again.

PS - I'm civ in this game, discuss that!

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Have we determined, fellow inmates, whether votes are changeable? I am goal-focused right now and haven't stopped to breath.

S~V~S wrote:Christ I need to type better.

Prisoner 740359 wrote:Are votes changeable?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

indiglo wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:This is a point that has likely already been discussed to some degree, but I'll raise it again anyway: Fuzz was lynched despite trailing in his tally by one vote. That likely means there were extra votes in play somewhere, probably via the loan shark(s). The late votes that secured the lynch, like Turnip Head and Sloonei -- how have those been received?

I'm reminded of a particular bus vote by Russ in the Talking Heads game that earned him town credibility for nearly the whole game before the town finally figured it out.

Both of these players' names have been mentioned a couple of times as suspicious. So far, I don't believe any major cases have been made on either of them, but I may be forgetting something again. (But I don't think I am.)

What's your take?

Thanks by the way for the details via the S~V~S quote.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:This is a point that has likely already been discussed to some degree, but I'll raise it again anyway: Fuzz was lynched despite trailing in his tally by one vote. That likely means there were extra votes in play somewhere, probably via the loan shark(s). The late votes that secured the lynch, like Turnip Head and Sloonei -- how have those been received?

I'm reminded of a particular bus vote by Russ in the Talking Heads game that earned him town credibility for nearly the whole game before the town finally figured it out.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

indiglo wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:My recollection is that there was a core of us uncomfortable with the 3 main candidates: ika, gleam and LC. So we discussed just pooling our votes and going elsewhere. A few names were tossed around, 1 them eventually being Fuzz. SVS jumped on, did a quick ISO and found something off. The thread was moving SUPER fast, and there was MUCH discussion about whether or not the "off thing" was really a thing, or just some hare brained tangent.

I felt better about the "off thing" from Fuzz than I did about the 3 candidates, so popped my vote on there and hoped for the best. Interesting thing was, after we had gotten Fuzz up to being the leader (many Gleam voters hopped off Gleam and onto Fuzz) LC came in and tied ika with Fuzz. Then lastly, sig jumped on and put ika in the lead. Fuzz still got lynched though.

Does that help at all? It was a crazy day, to say the least.

It helps a great deal, thank you. The context of the lynch progression is crucial to my being able to fully grasp each important variable. When you say "the off thing" in reference to Fuzz, what do you mean?

S~V~S wrote:

Silverwolf wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:Breaking the tie, voting for ika.

ika

This is a very opportunistic vote and probably scum.

I kind of agree. This is his last postmentioning ika:

RadicalFuzz wrote:Matt is either playing from a high tightrope or is town. The risk/reward for his actions feels like high/medium if he's scum.
Sloonei is my strongest townread, as his posts have consistently made logical sense and he's avoided tunnelling on one player or interaction. It feels like he's trying to solve the game, and that's good.
You look town-y to me, for similar reasons to Sloonei. The difference is your tone reads as a little early to reach a conclusion, like you're content with finding enough facts to reach a conclusion at all, not necessarily the correct one.

Spirityo still has said next to nothing and we're a few hours out from Day 2 ending. His four posts consist of the following. A "linki - that's a good idea", one "I agree with Sloonei about the cultural differences between RYM & Syndicate", a greeting to everyone, and an apology for missing the vote. Absolutely zero content whatsoever.
Enrique I don't like because of his refusal to explain his vote on Day 1. That entire situation read as if he was nervous, if that makes sense, like he didn't have a reason at the time of his vote but decided he needed one.

I refuse to touch the Silverwolf/ika thing with a 39 & 1/2 foot pole. There's some logic to be found in interactions regarding them, but so much emotion that I'd probably end up stepping on someone's toes and they'd get mad at me for their decision to wear sandals.

My vote's going to be used to prevent a tie today. I'm indifferent as to where specifically it goes.

Turnip the reason you should vote for me is so you stop twiddling your thumbs about who to vote for.

Llama can you elaborate on your conclusion that Luffy's posts scream "cop?"

S~V~S wrote:ebwop, what changed? Why did he grab his 39 1/2 foot pole & start touching?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Checking indiglo's content relative to Fuzz's, because she's right here and my brain is on fire. Let's go.

Spoiler: show

indiglo wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:I don't really like Gleam at the moment, but I've been focused on the whole "We shouldn't lynch so that way town might not die" statement for the majority of my time thinking about Gleam. Can we get statements of intent from people voting Gleam (Luffy, Silverwolf, Marsh, ika, SVS, & Scotty) to clarify their viewpoints?

There are legitimately 8 people whose names start with "S." That's weird.

I would like statements of intent about the Gleam votes as well. I haven't had time to do my reread (or as folks now say, ISO - which is yet another acronym I had to look up - wtf, where did all these acronyms come from? I haven't been gone that long!?) about that whole situation. Seeing so many votes piled on him tweaks me a bit.

I guess not wanting to restate your intent is ok, but we still have plenty of time before EoD, and if it's clear in your mind I'm not sure why you'd be here, read the question and choose not to answer it. It's your right, but it strikes me as odd also.

It's nice that she was willing to cast a frown in his direction relatively early, but she was also a bit forgiving (see the highlighted content). You've stated a reason here to be suspicious of Fuzz, but you haven't quite taken it on yourself given the final statement. This could be seen as a tentative distancing effort.

Spoiler: show

indiglo wrote:EBWOP (probably with a side of linki)~

Sorry Fuzz, for doing this when you are not here. Nothing personal at all.

]

indiglo contributed to the Fuzz lynch while he was unavailable. That's not a bad look, though context would be helpful here. Could anyone clarify: at the time of this indiglo vote for Fuzz, was the lynch progressing cleanly or was there a significant resistance (particularly a counterwagon)? I can't see a polls thread if there is one.

Golden wrote:@Indi - I'd add DDL.

indiglo wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Everyone: having followed the full climate of this game thread, I have a question for you:

Who, entering this day phase, seem to be the players regarded with the most suspicion? I ask this question because it will help to narrow my immediate analytic focus. I will decide whether or not I agree.

That's going to depend on who you ask. A few names that have been tossed around in no particular order:

- sig
- Nero
- Quin
- Scotty



Who am I forgetting? I know I'm forgetting someone?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Everyone: having followed the full climate of this game thread, I have a question for you:

Who, entering this day phase, seem to be the players regarded with the most suspicion? I ask this question because it will help to narrow my immediate analytic focus. I will decide whether or not I agree.

Golden wrote:I wonder what would happen if we lynched the warden...

Prisoner 740359 wrote:

indiglo wrote:What has happened so far:
We have been playing an internet game where everyone receives a random role. Even though everyone is friends, some are supposed to kill others, so some arguing and accusations go flying. Some people died, some ended up in prison, some are now free while others are still dead. And voila - it is today.

Homie, that's about as vague as me saying I had food at lunch in prison.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

indiglo wrote:Prison break!! *locks up her valuables*


What has happened so far:
We have been playing an internet game where everyone receives a random role. Even though everyone is friends, some are supposed to kill others, so some arguing and accusations go flying. Some people died, some ended up in prison, some are now free while others are still dead. And voila - it is today.

Have you been subject to a sufficient quantity of flying accusations?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Epignosis wrote:In full games to date, civilians have won 19% of the time to mafia's 46%. Independents are 54%.

Civilians have fared better in speed setups, with a 30% win rate to mafia's 48%. Independents are 39%.

That is pathetic. Assuming games are balanced, the civ and bad win rates should be equal.

Golden wrote:

Quin wrote:\_(T:)_/

I think things are progressing well, and I'm the one with 3 votes

I mean, it's not perfect, but it's not too late to start pulling the threads through and getting some good lynches in.

Thats how I feel too, quin. I really do. It's not time for 'omg, worst civ performance ever, lets throw out baby with bathwater'.

Golden wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Golden wrote:Know why you're really bitching, epi?

Because you didn't agree, and wanted sig gone. It's as simple as that really. You don't like that sig survived another day.

It's not because the gleam votes weren't well reasoned.

We lynched gleam because he is bad at the game. By bad I mean, he plays in a way that seems not optimal most of the time. It is possible he may not actually be that bad.

We lynch Sig every time for the same reason. We have also lynched people like Metalmarsh, Scotty, Vompatti and many others.

We look for a standard in towniness and lynch anyone who doesn't follow them. Then after we lynch the same player as a civ over ane over, we finally learn they work that way and move on to the next new player with a weird playstyle that shows up. So we can lynch them over and over.

Meanwhile, scum players who are skilled at following the standard and looking town, like Golden, Ricochet and FZ, own this site and contribute for it to have what might be the highest scum/town win rate of the internet.

That has to stop. We need to stop lynching weird players for being weird, anf learn to read them more. I am guilty of that toi, but I am not the only one.

No, you know what has to stop in this game?

People assuming the lynches aren't coming from reading people.

People painting others motives as uninformed when they are anything but.

I get told I'm arrogant by you, but then this? Come on!

If you think you know how to catch baddies, then catch them. Get on with it! You must be the great baddie catcher!

I don't think any of the four people who have been lynched have been lynched for the same reasons. Nor have any of the reasons been lazy or uninformed. That includes the two people who were lynched that I didn't agree with. All of them were lynched for proper, well-reasoned thought processes. No-one is phoning it in.

Trying to make it look like we are 'doing something wrong' and there is some objective baddie-finding standard we are all, as a community, failing to meet has just one word to it, in my opinion...

Manipulative.

VERY VERY manipulative.

If people weren't really thinking and trying to solve the game, sig would have been lynched unanimously two days ago.

My win rate as town is pretty good. I don't contribute to a 'high scum win rate'. Since I arrived at this site, I've contributed just as crucially to civilian wins.

I don't look for weird play styles. I never wanted to lynch sig because he 'plays weird'. I wanted to lynch him because, in a period of what would have been stress to the baddie team, he came out looking worst in that short period of time. LC wasn't lynched for playing weird. Fuzz wasn't lynched for playing weird. Diiny wasn't lynched for playing weird.

You speak for yourself as to why you voted gleam. I didn't vote HIM because he 'played weird' either.

In truth, if we had caught two out of four cops in the first four lynches, town would be well ahead in this game. We'd be feeling like we were doing really well. Criticising the entire town for playing the game wrong when they've only managed one out of four is, to me, just.... I don't even have a word for it.

I don't like the narrative you and epi are both trying to push. It's really false.