The Syndicate

Holy shit, a 3-way tie?

Epi HAS to be trolling us about the post, right? It's coming?

I'm voting now. 10 minutes left in the poll, which ends a bit earlier than the last one, I think, and I don't see anything changing my mind in that short timespan.

Linki: Ah, I see. Not really, since she's voting someone I feel good about.

Ricochet wrote:She just dropped the self-preserve vote intentions, though. Does that look slighty better?

I'm not following. Why would a self-preserve intention make her look better? To me it contributes to the story that she's not helping us catch baddies.

Ricochet wrote:Well, it's one hour left and, realistically, I think five more votes to be made (I'm counting out the silenced, because if they faked it but do show up to vote, they pretty much commit suicide, and TinyBubbles, who is nowhere to be seen). Six with Tiny.

How about we put our top choices on the table? I'm very torn between my first two

- DDL - out of all the hunters, I feel least good about him
- LoRab - out of all the players, I feel least good about her
- third probably Cookie, based on today

I'm very strongly leaning a LoRab vote at this point. Rico, I agree with you that she looks the worst.

DDL, thanks for response. You are indeed stubborn! I suppose I understand your reasoning there, though, that you don't want to be fooled by a faking MP. I personally just find the fake very unlikely at this point, though.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Linki 2: And why wouldn't he be able to be silenced twice by one person? In general, games here have a "no double targeting" rule that applies to consecutive nights only. So silencing MP D4 and D5 would be illegal, but D3 and D5 would be allowed.

Oh, I think you're right. The rule says "twice in a row".

So MP doesn't have to be faking it to be BF.

Still, I have no idea why Derf woul even want to silence him twice.

DDL, does this point make you any more hesitant about your vote? Or are you still running under the assumption he is bad and that Derf did silence him twice, even though you find it weird that he did so?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Long Con wrote:Host: Can The Comedian use his nightkill on himself, securing his own win?

Except for, well, certain rare exceptions, I do not allow self-targeting, ever. And even if I did, Blake killing himself would not be enough to secure his own win.

So unless this is one of the rare exceptions (which I doubt), he doesn't allow it.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Linki 2: And why wouldn't he be able to be silenced twice by one person? In general, games here have a "no double targeting" rule that applies to consecutive nights only. So silencing MP D4 and D5 would be illegal, but D3 and D5 would be allowed.

Oh, I think you're right. The rule says "twice in a row".

So MP doesn't have to be faking it to be BF.

Still, I have no idea why Derf woul even want to silence him twice.

So putting these things together, MP and MM are both either: A) Not civ or Derf, and each have been silenced twice. By the same person or different people in each case, who knows. Or B) One of them is BF and is faking, and one of the silencers (likely BF, given the missed kill) missed the PM. However, both of these two have clearly been around, so why would either have missed the PM?

Definitely leaning very far away from an MM or MP lynch now. I suppose either could in theory be Moloch, but I'd rather go with someone who has a possibility to be BF or Moloch to increase our chances.

LoRab wrote:I'm frustrated, yes. I've had suspicion of me since day 1 and it's now day 6 and I know I'm not bad. So, yes, it becomes frustrating.

Why do you think MM and Cookie are both civ?

I've mentioned this before - both of them are playing how I expect them to play. Cookie reads to me as a genuinely confused civ with some culture shock, and MM is being MM. Normally I wouldn't say that's very indicative of his alignment, but he gave us the D4 poll when he didn't have to, something I don't see a baddie ever doing.

To be fair, though, I never said they WERE civ. Just that that's how I see them right now.

Ricochet wrote:Does anyone have an opinion on DDL's D5? Or defense of D5? Or overall mix of hunts and gameplay? I feel his rebuttals are on a very thin line between genuine and having enough room to come up with competent explanations. Between him and Scotty as, let's say, mislynchers, I feel better about Scotty than DDL, even though DDL scored Sloonei on the first day. Plus, he's somehow still my gut read for Moloch.

I have DDL as a bit of a question mark. My gut gives a slight civvie read, but I haven't taken the time recently to reread him. Now that you're mentioning it, I oughta do that.

Frankly I'm a little surprised people feel the need to say they feel good about Scotty. I haven't agreed with him much in this game, but I think he's left very little doubt he's hunting baddies.

Linki: Oh, that's what lyle stands for? I thought it was because the baddie would be lying low. This one makes more sense haha.

Weird post from DH there. A reread is definitely in order. Not sure I'll have time before EOD, but I'll get it done by D7 at least.

Linki 2: And why wouldn't he be able to be silenced twice by one person? In general, games here have a "no double targeting" rule that applies to consecutive nights only. So silencing MP D4 and D5 would be illegal, but D3 and D5 would be allowed.

Scotty, are you still planning on voting Cookie? You said you were waiting for MP to chime in so he'd have a chance to dissuade you, and it seems pretty clear he won't.

Again, I'm anti a Cookie lynch.

G-Man wrote:Tiny Bubbles logged on today and yet no posts here. Tiny needs to come up big today or I will be very suspicious.

So this does actually bring up the small possibility that Bubbles was silenced, which to me would mean MM were faking. I'll be very interested in who says what after the lynch.

Right now I'm leaning LoRab for my vote, for what I see as a somewhat coasty style and outsized reactions to being brought up. I could probably be convinced to vote MP, but as I said, I'm still a little waffly there.

LoRab wrote:Meant to add.

@Russ: You seem to neglect considering that either of those players could fake being silenced.

Bit testy, eh, LoRab?

You are in substance correct, even though the tone might actually make me more suspicious of you. I failed to read the post with actual content you wrote earlier. In my defense, I skimmed because the previous two posts were walls of text that were all defense, which didn't interest me. Fool me once and all that. Anyway, my point here is that instead of jumbo defense posts, talking about what you think with the time you do have for mafia would actually improve my view on you. I'm sure that goes for others as well.

However, your point about the kill PM likely NOT being missed, because 2 people appear to be silenced, is a really good one. It makes me less suspicious of Bubbles, although I still really hope she comes back.

And you're right; I did neglect to consider that they would fake being silenced - on purpose. In MP's case, I think it is literally impossible that he could do so. His appendix would probably explode. In MM's case it's possible, but he also really likes to talk, and I don't see a huge benefit to him to fake it here. Pretty risky in case two people really HAD been silenced - then we'd know that one of the 3 not talking was faking. Therefore, if he's faking it then he's most likely Moloch or Big Figure, because that would mean Big Figure didn't send in a kill PM. So that would be either Bubbles missing it, or MM not sending it in to set her up. It seems pretty unlikely to me, especially as I'm leaning civ on MM.

Hi all! Back from my trip and have read up. Posting what's immediately on my mind, and then I have to get my life back in order (e.g. shower, laundry, etc.). I will be around to talk most of the evening, even if I'm a bit in and out.

First, based on their posting in other threads, I fully believe both MM and MP are silenced today. It would be impossible for MP to not post if he weren't, and I don't think MM would say absolutely nothing, either.

LoRab, all we've seen from you for days is defending yourself. I get that you follow your own path, and you say you're involved, but the fact of the matter is you're not offering a ton of help right now, and for me the more you write huge defenses without saying much else, the worse you look. Who do YOU think is bad? Do you think the players accusing you are bad, or simply misguided civs? Do you think espers' baddie companion bussed him yesterday?

I'm still on my "Cookie is probably actually a newbie" line of thought, so I doubt I'd vote there today. Again, I was leaning civ on Bass/Bubbles. However, now that she's not been active since joining and there was no kill last night, she looks a lot worse to me. As others have pointed out, there are possibilities for a sent kill to not happen, but they seem fairly limited.

I'm still really torn on MP. If he's a baddie, he's doing a masterful job of having a reply to every single charge leveled at him. As I said before, some of his reasonings seem TOO tight. But I just keep coming back to whether I believe that a lone MP would be so ballsy on the Elo case. I think I'm leaning a slight no on that right now, but I waffle.

G-Man is a bit of a question mark to me as well, and I kind of have him lumped in with LoRab as "people who are hard to read and haven't really done much baddie hunting lately".

I wouldn't lynch MM today. I'd still like to see more from him, but I was leaning civ previously and I'm gonna stick with my gut on a day he's silenced.

Oh! And LoRab, why so interested in Rorschach's list? Even when Rico said you were on it?

LoRab wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

LoRab wrote:Does anyone have a Rorschach list handy?

DDL (Golden, DH, Eloh)
Cookie (Golden, DH)
LoRab (Golden)
Scotty (Eloh)
MP (Eloh)

Do you have a complete list (including people already gone)?

Linki: I do agree with LoRab that Scotty seems to be putting an inordinate amount of trust in Ozymandias, who may not have any info anyone else doesn't have.

And G-Man, if MP had done that, it would be one of the ballerest baddie plays of all time. I know he is very good at being bad. I just can't decide if I think he's quite THAT good.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Why does G-man seem too easy?

And, in my defense, all you or anyone could tell me in Elo's defense yesterday was "seems like Elo being Elo" and "her votes are too good".

Not only was the latter false, but you'll have to excuse me if that didn't convince me otherwise.

That said, finger pointing is the last thing we need right now. I accept full responsibility for what happened yesterday, so I think your posts would be better served by explaining why you think what you do, instead of telling me to keep my eyes open, no offense intended.

Again, G-Man being G-Man. And I have explained what I think, over and over. I'd have been glad to talk non-Elo people whenever, but you insisted on making the last lynch binary, so the only productive thing to do was defend Elo.

And frankly, I don't have to excuse you. You tunneled sooo hard, and now you're saying you're cool with taking responsibility for it while you take no responsibility whatsoever. You blame Elo and everyone who defended her and tell everyone to totally ignore the past 2 days and let you continue to lead lunches

Again, I have trouble believing you'd be so sloppy as a baddie. But you need to take a backseat here for a day or two and let cooler heads prevail. You're having trouble stepping back from your reads.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I could definitely see G-Man as Big Figure.

I'm glad you pointed out those who have not voted for a confirmed mafia because I agree that I'll be absolutely FLOORED if you, Bass, or Rico are bad.

I also agree that if mafia kills you tonight, Big Figure is a fucking pussy.

I hate mafia teams in recent games I've played. They always take the easy way out. Actually earn your win, don't chicken out by killing off someone you know you can't lynch. That's pussy play.

G-Man, again, seems a little too easy. I'm less sure than on the Elo thing on him, but for God's sake keep your eyes open this time. You denied tunneling about 86 times and still tunneled yesterday.

And can we please not call people pussies? I'm not the last mafia, and I still find it kind of rude. Also killing unlynchable people is the only way a baddie can possibly win. So they literally don't have a choice but to be a pussy by your definition.

Scotty wrote:
I feel awful.

Gotta admit that I was sucked into MP's argument a bit there and went down the rabbit hole.

I'm now 0/3. (Well, I still don't know if Cookie is good, but still)

My list still stands. #2 LoRab, but I think my #3 Russ is sneaking up again..

Russtifinko wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Well, I don't know how that happened. I'm an idiot!

Guess I suck at baddie hunting regardless of my methods.

Hate to say I told you so, but I fucking told you so about 15 damn times. Tunnel much?

And yes Scotty, I'd have gladly gotten in on that action. Bets 4 days.

i am very bad at mafia, and also drunk, and that was sooooo obvious

Obvious? That's an overstatement. You've been defending her all game sure, which, to be frank, mafia could be doing just as well as civ. If you were mafia, of course it would be obvious.

Her voting patterns indicate that she had some idea, but I'm still confident mafia was bussing espers Day 4. I am discounting Cookie right now since she's been away and I just don't think she had the mastermind behind it (Yes, I know Sloonei and espers are helping Big Figure from the grave).

That leaves my #2 LoRab, and #3 Russ.

Those should be lynched next, in that order.

So I'm bad because I was right about Elo, despite it being mathematically impossible I knew her alignment for a fact? Good sleuthing. *slow claps*

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Well, I don't know how that happened. I'm an idiot!

Guess I suck at baddie hunting regardless of my methods.

Hate to say I told you so, but I fucking told you so about 15 damn times. Tunnel much?

And yes Scotty, I'd have gladly gotten in on that action. Bets 4 days.

i am very bad at mafia, and also drunk, and that was sooooo obvious

We're likely only getting 9 votes today maximum, since Elo seems silenced and Cookie said she'd likely not be back. 4 cast already, so 5 to go. I have to vote soonish because I'll be out the rest of the Night.

I don't have a super strong top candidate today. I'd love to see more from Tiny, but my positive feels on Bass would make me not want to vote there, at least not yet. MM is still acting weird, and I still can't decide why, but his helpfulness on that poll seems solid to me. I feel good about a few others, so it's probable my read on at least one experienced player I have positive vibes on is wrong.

I can't make up my mind on whether MP would be this ballsy as a baddie, or, as Rico said, whether Cookie is a new civvie figuring things out or a very very clever baddie. I'm kind of leaning toward an MP vote, even though I'm skeptical he'd be so brazen, mainly because there are few-ish votes to go and I think lynching Elo is a really bad idea.

Linki: Wow, the 3rd vote for Elo makes me feel like I have to vote MP for her not to be lynched.

Rico, do you think MP and Elo and Cookie's messages mean anything about their alignment? I thought they were weird, personally, since all 3 were being suspected at the time and the pattern was to kill squeaky-clean people, but I haven't made up my mind what it indicates.

I'm voting and leaving now. May not be back on until the next Day period, because I'm going Put-In Bay with some friends, but we'll see.

Russtifinko wrote:Hey I just realized, DH was the first departure from the "kill the most civ person" strategy. At least he wasn't my top civ read, and I don't remember anyone saying he was theirs. Who did he suspect/vote for before dying? And do you guys think the departure is just because espers is dead and someone else took over, or could they have felt threatened by DH specifically?

Linki: she's been lurking in thread, so I figure she's silenced. That's come with a vote block as well, right? So there probably won't be a self-defense vote from her today.

Ricochet wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Also, DH was lynched.

Wait what no way

I meant to Russ, who said you were killed by Mafia.

Right! My bad. I meant juliets/timmer, obviously. Idk why he was on my brain.

Anyway, there's not a whole lot on that angle to look at imo. juliets voted espers. One of her last posts last Night mentioned wanting to do some reads, and then she had a mildly positive but only tangentially game-related interaction with DDL.

Hey I just realized, DH was the first departure from the "kill the most civ person" strategy. At least he wasn't my top civ read, and I don't remember anyone saying he was theirs. Who did he suspect/vote for before dying? And do you guys think the departure is just because espers is dead and someone else took over, or could they have felt threatened by DH specifically?

Linki: she's been lurking in thread, so I figure she's silenced. That's come with a vote block as well, right? So there probably won't be a self-defense vote from her today.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Regarding LoRab though, Russ, I'll at least tell you that she seems like totally normal LoRab to me, in terms of demeanor and handling suspicion.

Thanks MP.

And I have been reading what you say. Remember, I said even if I 100% assume you're civ, the case doesn't hold water for me. And the NO U angle would be easy to ignore if it wasn't your third one. It's a bit boy who cried wolf to keep telling us to ignore potential NO Us and then case build on everyone who suspects you, wouldn't you agree?

And G-man, I would feel exactly the same way, but it just seems too easy. I know MP likes to be in the thick of things regardless, but it just seems too ballsy as the last baddie, even for him.

I did a full retread on LoRab. I don't really see much of a baddie angle in her posts. Not that I see a supra town one either, just nothing horrible stands out. Her style reminds me vaguely of Roxy. People who've played with her before, does she usually express so much appreciation about being suspected?

I'm probably ignoring the MP-Elo thing today. Sorry MP, I know you won't like that.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:MP, yeah, without meta Elo's posts look bad. But as G-Man just pointed out, her votes look good. And more importantly, you HAVE to consider meta with Elo because she ALWAYS looks bad to some degree. (Kicks dead horse one last time for good measure.) your last post pretty much sums it up. No quote cuz I'm on phone, but you said "she fucking voted me" and in the next sentence "could it get any scummier?". You are tunneling HARD on this because you felt attacked, and you oughta check yourself.

I'm also not sure if I buy that you fake-suspected me, but we'll leave that for now.

And Scotty, you can question my motivation on what I said about MM, but the point remains: there is no benefit whatsoever to a lone baddie or indie to give the civs info we need and don't have. Completely altruistic gesture on his part.

Voting records are a tricky thing.

I already proved that both of her votes look terrible when combined with her content. She clearly was trying to decide whether to bus Sloonei. She CAST OFF onto someone she thought was "really civ" the D3 lynch when she easily could have bussed espers. She only bussed espers on D4 when it was inevitable he was dying.

Russ, I swear to god I've checked myself. Elo's behavior is classic baddie.

What kind of civilian can't even articulate her reads during EoD D3? It's because she is MAKING UP SUSPECTS.

BUT ALL OF THIS APPLIES TO YOU TOO! Maybe even more than to Elo

Seriously, dude, get some condiments for your hat. DDL is right-you're just blindly going after anyone who suspects you this game. I would think it made you the third baddie, if it didn't put you in the front of every single discussion (which I have to believe you'd be smart enough to avoid if you were bad).

Tiny, you shouldn't finish your read tomorrow because the vote ends today. And I'm still waiting to hear from LoRab. Again, she's tough for me to read, but her contributions have been minimal, and Not talking today of all days looks a lot like sitting back and letting a 2-candidate lynch happen.

Love to hear some thoughts from both TinyBubbles and LoRab today. I need to develop some reads, and Elo is not high on my list for votes. Also curious who Rico is thinking about for today.

MP, yeah, without meta Elo's posts look bad. But as G-Man just pointed out, her votes look good. And more importantly, you HAVE to consider meta with Elo because she ALWAYS looks bad to some degree. (Kicks dead horse one last time for good measure.) your last post pretty much sums it up. No quote cuz I'm on phone, but you said "she fucking voted me" and in the next sentence "could it get any scummier?". You are tunneling HARD on this because you felt attacked, and you oughta check yourself.

I'm also not sure if I buy that you fake-suspected me, but we'll leave that for now.

And Scotty, you can question my motivation on what I said about MM, but the point remains: there is no benefit whatsoever to a lone baddie or indie to give the civs info we need and don't have. Completely altruistic gesture on his part.

Oh hey, good post there MM! I missed that on linki.

Well I'm probably not voting MM today. No reason for a non-civ to help us out there.

MovingPictures07 wrote:My thoughts on you yesterday, Russ, were purposeful.

What does this mean? You were feeling me out and didn't actually suspect me? Or you had some ulterior motive?

MovingPictures07 wrote:What is it that makes you think this is civilian Elo, Russ?

I've mislynched civilian Elo too many times to count, but this is not civilian Elo.

But WHY, though? Your iso shows her doing Elo-type stuff, at what to me seems a normal Elo level. And then suspecting you. Even if I take the standpoint of 100% assuming you're civ, it's a hard case to swallow, man.

Yes, she's done some weird stuff, but she played an important role in at least one baddie lynch, and she always does weird stuff. I see nothing out of character, and I don't see baddie Elo throwing teammates under the bus on a team of 3 in a 19-person game.

MovingPictures07 wrote:That said, Russ, I will try my best to discuss other suspects.

I do agree I'd like to hear from G-Man. What are your thoughts on him, Russ?

I think I should be able to read him better after hosting him in Econ, and I think he's being as unhelpful as MM. I don't know yet if it makes him bad, but I want to see more because I'd like to make up my mind.

On another note, I think the theory that a baddie teammate would have not voted espers on D3 and then thrown in the towel on D4 and done it makes a lot of sense. Not that it absolutely happened, mind you. Just that it's something I'll be factoring in to my vote considerations today.

Dammit, I said "to that end" twice. Stupid pretentious phrases, sneaking into my writing.

RIP juliets.

Fwiw, I did cast the first vote on espers, Mr. Night-Time Talker Man. So your points about me aren't all true. Just think that needs saying.

MP, again, I don't think I'm seeing a bad Elo here. I think you may be tunneling on her a bit (assuming you're good).

And to whoever asked about what I felt better about in MP's responses near EOD, he seemed like super-caring tryhard MP, which is an MP I like. He clearly was frustrated, but he kept it pretty civil. Not that a baddie MP couldn't do those things. It just makes me slightly less gung ho about lynching him.

He's still on my list of potential baddies, but I'm not sure exactly where he falls. I'm trying to keep an open mind today. To that end, I want to develop reads on players I haven't played much with so far. My play this game has been very gut-influenced, and it's harder to get a gut read on someone you haven't seen much before. To that end, I'd love to hear some thoughts from Cookie, G-Man, and LoRab.

Speaking of which, when is the last time G-Man even posted? The last I remember was yesterday, but I don't really count that because he spent all day demanding that MM post a defense or get his vote. To me that contributed very little to the cause, and basically amounted to some kind of weird side-game for him.

Linki: MP, you tunneled on me fairly hard for a portion of yesterday after I suspected you, so I'd urge you to reconsider. And you know that's coming from a good place now, since there are no baddie teammates left.

Also, our win con says we do need Moloch dead. But beyond that contribution, MM, what are you even doing?

Wow, I saved that post for LoRab and there was so much linki I didn't even get to see most of it.

My opinion is the vote is decent evidence for LoRab not being the third mafia - Moloch is kind of a wild card, so who knows there.

LoRab wrote: linkitis: @Russ: I so don't think of myself as legendary, so thanks. Really, I've just been playing for a long time. And, at some point, someone found a twirly smiley for me because I always post the "eye me all you want" thing and I get all twirly while I'm being eyed. But, about this game, I'm not trying to be frivolous. I'm just a bit quirky and think about things differently than a lot of players. I notice small details and figure things out from that. It's really just how I play.

Fair enough! Thanks for the response.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Can't say I'm shocked MP is suspecting me. Bring it on, chum!

Imma go ahead and vote espers/ika for tonight, though. I don't see anything convincing me otherwise, and someone's gotta get to the polls here.

Linki: Hmm. Well, MP, I guess to respond to the majority of your points, I haven't said most of the things I brought up because I haven't posted much at all about anything. As I said, that's changing today, so I'm saying what's on my mind.

As to being noncommittal, I feel like every time I've posted I've tried to be super clear about what I think of whom, since I haven't been posting much otherwise. Yeah, my mind has changed on some people, and yeah, since I haven't posted as much you haven't gotten to see the full progression of those changes. Saying I'm not committing too any reads is probably overplaying your hand tho.

Double Linki: Let me post! And stop it with the living rooms!

I understand, Russ. I just hope to see more thought process from you, because otherwise it's difficult to discern whether you are latching onto suspicions for convenience or whether you just haven't been fully articulating why you suspect whom you suspect. Does that make sense?

Yeah for sure. I'm on board with you there; I need to be posting more and making my train of thought easier to follow, and I appreciate you saying that that's the case.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Well, so much for the controlled manner of playing from MP.

Good to see it gone at least once. It's not mafia if you don't get pissed off on a daily basis.

We'll never gonna be able to read that guy unless we knock him out of his confort zone.

I actually agree with this, and from a game perspective I appreciated it even though it frustrated him. I think having pressure on him let me read MP better there. Fwiw he pretty much read as civvie MP to me in that interaction. Not to say I won't have my eye on him (I will), but it improved my gut read.

BOOM! Good job team! 2 baddies down.

This should've happened a day ago, which is a bummer. A number of people could've and should've changed that, probably with me at the top of the list. Better late than never, I guess.

Linki: Elo, do you mean you suspect MP more or less after that result? It wasn't clear to me from your post.

Can't say I'm shocked MP is suspecting me. Bring it on, chum!

Imma go ahead and vote espers/ika for tonight, though. I don't see anything convincing me otherwise, and someone's gotta get to the polls here.

Linki: Hmm. Well, MP, I guess to respond to the majority of your points, I haven't said most of the things I brought up because I haven't posted much at all about anything. As I said, that's changing today, so I'm saying what's on my mind.

As to being noncommittal, I feel like every time I've posted I've tried to be super clear about what I think of whom, since I haven't been posting much otherwise. Yeah, my mind has changed on some people, and yeah, since I haven't posted as much you haven't gotten to see the full progression of those changes. Saying I'm not committing too any reads is probably overplaying your hand tho.

Double Linki: Let me post! And stop it with the living rooms!

Oh! And Scotty, you have my reads on those players correct.

Also, why is Epi posting pictures of living rooms during the daytime? I thought hosts were crepuscular!

Scotty wrote:And thanks for answering, Russ!
So just to sum up for my own sanity:

LoRab pings you because she's frivolous, espers is your strongest read right now, you're confident Elo is good, MM is behaving his normal blah self, and Bass (Tiny) is prolly good like Elo.

I don't think this exonerates you from my watchful eye, since all of your arguments sound weak and, daresay, measured.

linki- @Russ yea that answered me, thanks!
but
Double Linki: Yeah looking back, I can see how anyone lost it Day 3. Those were the latest votes I've ever seen.
How do you know how late they were? Didn't you miss Day 3? Is there a way to check a timestamp of a vote?

Cool. You should be watching me. I just think what I think.

And yeah you can check when people bold their votes and/or panic about voting last-minute. I suppose that's not foolproof, but based on the timestamps of those posts it was intense. I think the way people talk about D3 corroborates that it all happened very quickly.

Hmm yeah, it was Rico who brought up my Point 4a.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Scotty, I need to start conducting ISO's now. I've been meaning to for some time. I'll look at Russ first, since his posts earlier today had me wondering about him. I thought he said my conduct seemed "super civ" or something, so to see my name on his suspect list today puzzled me. I'll go look at him now.

Yeah, you did seem super civ to me at first. Lately I'm just wondering if it's too civ, if that makes any sense. Basically, my paranoid, "MP-might-be-baddie" self thinks thusly:

1) You FREAKED when llama started poking you on Day 1. Which to be fair is a pretty standard MP thing to do because you care so much about the game regardless of role. However, from my vantage point, it was pretty clear llama was joking around, and it's a classic baddie move to go hyper defensive. Epi pretty much runs his civ game entirely on the theory that baddies overreact when poked.

2) You pretty much allayed my fears D1 by posting a ton of content, though, and being your normal crazy-involved self.

3) I agree with others that some of the wishy-washiness around lynches is a little weird. I'm used to you being hyper confident in your reads. I get that some past experiences have changed that a bit, but it still just doesn't read like the MP I know. For me the weirdness here is less about the votes themselves and more about your willingness to believe in yourself.

4a) Again, paranoid me here: You've done a great job trying to get people involved, mainly by asking them literally dozens of questions at a time. I'm starting to wonder if the questions are a way to avoid talking too much about yourself. (I think someone said this earlier today, but I thought it first. So hmph! )
4b) You've had a super well-reasoned explanation for every. single. thing. you. have. done. in. the. game. (Not ture anymore, after yesterday's lynch.) It just was starting to seem a little too airtight.

5) I think it's really fishy that the day after I mention I'm thinking of you for a vote, I'm suddenly one of 2 remaining baddies along with Elo.

6) And maybe this one is unfair. But I know in the past, Epi has been known to choose players for certain roles. Since Sloonei is relatively new to the site, I can see him maybe putting a more experienced player on the team as well. Now for sure, you aren't the only one who would fit that bill, and it's pretty much an indefensible thought. It just is a very small factor in Paranoid Dan's mind.

All that said, I'm not sold on you being or not being bad yet. I just brought up your name because at the time I hadn't seen it mentioned much, and I thought it needed to be discussed to some degree because of my thoughts above.

I will say, though, that I think the kills being associated with your rainbow list in particular doesn't hold much water. I feel like maybe I've been misinterpreted on that point to be saying that you're somehow directing the baddies. I think I said this in an earlier post, but I don't really think that's the case. My rainbow list stance is basically, why take a chance of giving them any help at all?

I also think Rico's idea that you may be being framed (verb tenses?? help!) has some merit, and that alone makes me want to wait a good long while and evaluate carefully how I feel on you. If you're civ I'd hate to lose you.

Linki: Scotty, I think I answered your stuff. So we're good, right?

Double Linki: Yeah looking back, I can see how anyone lost it Day 3. Those were the latest votes I've ever seen.

Also, I'm pretty heavily leaning an espers vote for today. As bad as I'd feel for ika, it just looks worse and worse to me all the time.

Scotty wrote:Hmm. Has anyone done an ISO on Russ recently? I'm vey interested to see if and how he votes tonight, seeing as he missed Day 2 and 3. He was even active Day 3 with 4 paragraph-y posts, so I'm not sure what made him miss that vote

Russtifinko wrote:Going to work now. However, I definitely will be active today. Some players I'm considering (in no particular order):

espers, Cookie, LoRab G-Man, MP <---Some of these are VERY mild suspicions,I'm just trying to keep an open mind.

Players I probably would not vote toy (barring drastic changes):

Elo, MM, Bass

He's got some suspicions, but some of those I don't recognize as him having expressed an opinion on them, so let's see where he got those suspicions.. (I color coded for reference)

Russtifinko wrote: I'd have to read espers to develop an opinion there, since I don't have one as of my first thread read-through.

I'm not really buying the LoRab angle on the D1 vote. You're saying you think two baddie teammates tried to start lynch trains on two separate people to save Sloonei before she got any votes? With only 3 of them total, it seems crazy to me that they'd split up their voting power so early if they thought Sloonei might need defending.

So if anything, to me the currently most suspicious D1 vote is espers. Keep in mind, a baddie voting late in a lynch for a teammate actually has a LOWER risk than a civ doing the same thing, because they know they won't end up on Rorschach's hit list.

Linki: I dunno. I suppose Elo could be bad, but when she voted Sloonei it was tied up with Blooper. I dunno if I see a mafia Elo giving up on a teammate so early.

Russtifinko wrote:Hmmm, having read back on espers he seems above-board to me so far. What he's brought to the discussion has been open and well-reasoned.

Russtifinko wrote:Regarding espers, like I said, it definitely seems one of the safer votes on the day. However, my suspicion of espers basically rests solely on that at the moment, and without seeing anything suspicious in his posts I doubt I'd go that way yet. I'd say 30% chance I vote him, but that's mainly because I don't have another stronger case atm. If I did it'd be lower.

Russtifinko wrote: I honestly did not have a major suspicion going into this, which is a problem given how much has happened. I'd likely have voted espers, as I said, primarily for lack of a better case.

Geez it looks like that was intense.

Linki: I agree Cookies' and Elo's votes are quick flips. Fwiw I read Elo as genuine, and Cookie, being new to our brand of mafia, may not be aware of how strongly quick flips are frowned upon. Just think it's worth bearing in mind.

But idk who IS suspicious yet today. I feel like I'm stating back at Square One after missing yesterday - most of my reads so far are just slight gut and my "I always think _____ is ____." type stuff.

I want to know a few things from you, Russ.
1) Is espers still your top read?
It sounds like you don't have any major suspicions of anyone still, and of the person you do have a suspicion for, it's weak sauce. And you admit that. Very close to how Cookie is playing, except that Cookie has a prescribed handicap, whereas you do not (Unless you ARE new, in which case I apologize).
2) Since you would rather vote Cookie over, say, Elo, why is that? I don't see you making a lot of cases about Cookie. Mostly all I've seen from you is defending Elo. Do you feel like you have been defending Elo, at least softly?
3) The only time you mention LoRab is in the piece I highlighted, and even then you were doubting her badness. Why do you suspect her now?
4) What specifically about Elo, MM and Bass (juliets) doesn't make you lean towards voting them? And why just those 3?

linki- holy cow I missed a bunch in the past half hour. Welcome ika (cya espers)!

1) Yes. I agree with others' points about leaving being fishy, the won tie seems suspicious, and his play before seemed fairly scummy to me anyway.
2) I do feel like I had been lightly defending Elo, but I've had to be more vocal lately as more suspicions are voiced about her. Again, it's mostly gut and maybe I'll screw myself over on it, but I just can't buy that she'd be bad at this moment.
3) LoRab is one I'm having trouble placing. It's my first game with her, and I kinda had her built up in my mind as a legendary player. (She was the first one I ever saw to have her own smiley, and that was YEARS before anyone else!) So I guess I've been a little surprised lately about a lot of her posts being more on the frivolous side.
4) I've explained Elo ad naseum. MM, as I said, basically is having his own fun and only playing the game very tangentially. This leads to some heat-taking, generally. He could be bad, but I'd rather follow up on actual leads with all that's happened than lynch him today. Bass to me read a lot like Elo - pretty carefree, maybe too carefree to bother trying not to seem suspicious. A baddie's first intention is always to seem as unsuspicious as possible (at least in a one-baddie-team game), so I'm just not seeing the evil there.

As for why 3, it was just people who were on my mind and seemed to be getting some heat. I thought it worth mentioning that I do not think lynching them today is a good move.

Linki: MP, elaborating with them is what Im getting to in my next post. Just trying not to wall-o'-text people too badly.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:

Scotty wrote:Where I left off, but with a few more days of info..
Some thoughts before I go too in depth over the next day:

-Elo is reading slightly civ for me right now. Whereas Day 1 was full of shenanigans and Jesus toast all around, I'm not convinced right now that she would have had a hand in Sloonei's death.
-I think several people have been on to something with the LoRab reads. I'll be looking thoroughly into her tomorrow. But she has had her blinders on GMan for a full 3 cycles and I don't particularly find GMan threatening at the moment.
-Cookie is another one that strikes me as particularly blendy and most likely bad.
-MM is still on my watch-list. His self-vote on Day 2 didn't inspire confidence, but I see he has at least added to the conversation since Day 1. Which is a welcome sight. I'm interested in breaking down the Day 2 votes between he and Golden.
-LC The NK of LC is interesting because he was HARDLY the most civ-sounding person here. Makes me wonder what strategy mafia are playing with at this juncture.

LC's last reads for reference:

Long Con wrote:LoRab
Bass_the_Clever
Cookie
MovingPictures07
espers
Russtifinko
Dragon D. Luffy
Elohcin
juliets
Ricochet
G-Man
Metalmarsh89
Long Con

Note that Bass and LoRab are not exclusively mafia-reads for LC, but for others as well, so I don't see the likelihood of a frame job. Something to think about. Going to look an see if I (we) can't find clues into what would inspire a dead LC..

I think the evidence is right here. Third night in a row someone's killed off the top civ read in a rainbow list. Could be we're looking at baddie(s) who hate rainbow lists, or someone just thinks it's hilarious and is trolling us.

Russtifinko, what motivation would a mafia team have in performing NKs in such a fashion?
I think I've pretty much beat this to death. Again, I don't think the deaths are specifically because of your rainbow lists. I think the baddies are following a strong strategy of just killing the most civvie people.

I also think full rainbow lists make that super easy, and that the top half doesn't benefit the civs at all anyway. But Scotty is probably right that very civ people would die anyway. And for the record, I have always been very pro-half rainbow lists.

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:Going to work now. However, I definitely will be active today. Some players I'm considering (in no particular order):

espers, Cookie, LoRab G-Man, MP <---Some of these are VERY mild suspicions,I'm just trying to keep an open mind.

Players I probably would not vote toy (barring drastic changes):

Elo, MM, Bass

Russtifinko, I want explanation as to why you are considering these players only for your vote.
I'm...not? Note it says SOME players I'm considering. They're just the ones I'm leaning most toward.

Linki: I think based on the colors that I am not Elo's top baddie read, but rather the lowest suspicion she felt worth mentioning, MP. Just so we avoid overstating cases.

Ricochet wrote:Off the top of my head, I wouldn't be surprised if Eloh would copy this technique from how her baddie husband did it back in Guess Who. But I'm sure others can be just devious.

You say you don't see her as suspicious, Russ, why?

Mainly it's a gut read, I suppose. I just see Elo being Elo. Elo ALWAYS does things that look baddie to people, and she's usually a player a lot of people waffle on. Like someone said, she's a pretty easy target for a frame job sometimes, and occasionally baddies have gotten away with having her lynched and saying "well it's her fault anyway - she was acting weird". Don't want anything like that to happen here.

I think her posts seem super carefree and relaxed, and I do not see baddie Elo as carefree.

Scotty wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Scotty wrote: -MM is still on my watch-list. His self-vote on Day 2 didn't inspire confidence, but I see he has at least added to the conversation since Day 1. Which is a welcome sight. I'm interested in breaking down the Day 2 votes between he and Golden.

Oh, hi Scotty. Nice to see you again.

Hello again, my friend.

Seriously though, I still don't have my mind made up on you. Unfortunately I don't know if I will until I see your alignment. I may have to do some research on previous games to see how you function/play because on the surface you're quite mysterious. Chalking it up to my inexperience with you. Russ trusts you, LC trusted you (and if Russ is right, you better watch out! You were high up in his rainbow list). So I want to figure out what I'm missing so I can possibly get out of this tunnel.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:So let's lynch LoRab today.

Is that how you're voting today? You said yesterday that she should be lynched today, so why not just put your vote in?

Yeah, I've realized this game that Vompatti + words = MM.

Linki: I didn't play Guess Who, so I can't speculate on the framing angle. I just know that for baddies, killing super duper civs is always a good move because it makes lynches murkier.

Going to work now. However, I definitely will be active today. Some players I'm considering (in no particular order):

espers, Cookie, LoRab G-Man, MP <---Some of these are VERY mild suspicions,I'm just trying to keep an open mind.

Players I probably would not vote toy (barring drastic changes):

Elo, MM, Bass

Scotty wrote:Where I left off, but with a few more days of info..
Some thoughts before I go too in depth over the next day:

-Elo is reading slightly civ for me right now. Whereas Day 1 was full of shenanigans and Jesus toast all around, I'm not convinced right now that she would have had a hand in Sloonei's death.
-I think several people have been on to something with the LoRab reads. I'll be looking thoroughly into her tomorrow. But she has had her blinders on GMan for a full 3 cycles and I don't particularly find GMan threatening at the moment.
-Cookie is another one that strikes me as particularly blendy and most likely bad.
-MM is still on my watch-list. His self-vote on Day 2 didn't inspire confidence, but I see he has at least added to the conversation since Day 1. Which is a welcome sight. I'm interested in breaking down the Day 2 votes between he and Golden.
-LC The NK of LC is interesting because he was HARDLY the most civ-sounding person here. Makes me wonder what strategy mafia are playing with at this juncture.

LC's last reads for reference:

Long Con wrote:LoRab
Bass_the_Clever
Cookie
MovingPictures07
espers
Russtifinko
Dragon D. Luffy
Elohcin
juliets
Ricochet
G-Man
Metalmarsh89
Long Con

Note that Bass and LoRab are not exclusively mafia-reads for LC, but for others as well, so I don't see the likelihood of a frame job. Something to think about. Going to look an see if I (we) can't find clues into what would inspire a dead LC..

I think the evidence is right here. Third night in a row someone's killed off the top civ read in a rainbow list. Could be we're looking at baddie(s) who hate rainbow lists, or someone just thinks it's hilarious and is trolling us.

Ugh, sorry I went MIA. Girlfriend called and needed to vent.

If I am not a full participant in this game for Day 4, I deserve to be lynched and/or replaced. It is a sweet game. I'll clean up my act.

G-Man wrote:We were at a picnic and left much later than I hoped to. I had the pedal as far to the metal as my pregnant wife would allow. Once again, she doesn't know I'm playing a mafia game at the moment. I am a horrible, horrible husband.

Oh dang! haha mafia is your mistress.

I honestly did not have a major suspicion going into this, which is a problem given how much has happened. I'd likely have voted espers, as I said, primarily for lack of a better case.

Geez it looks like that was intense.

Linki: I agree Cookies' and Elo's votes are quick flips. Fwiw I read Elo as genuine, and Cookie, being new to our brand of mafia, may not be aware of how strongly quick flips are frowned upon. Just think it's worth bearing in mind.

Double linki: Dammit. RIP DH

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:Ok! I am back from hiking. And it seems like it went a lot better than Rico's - my only injury is a mild sunburn on both knees, of all places. Hope you get better soon!

Anyway, despite my best intentions, the first thing I did when I reached my apartment was catch up. So here are my responses to things I noticed. I'll try to break it up to avoid being mega-posty.

First off, RIP Scotty, llama, Golden, and Ninja Blooper. I don't have any reason to think any of you were bad, and all of you could have been huge assets. Pretty rough 2-day stretch following the hot start.

Golden wrote:And I think llama may have been the comedian. It's why he went all supatown.

I know Golden is dead, but MP and a number of others have echoed the sentiment, so maybe one of you could answer. I guess I'm having trouble understanding the logic here. doesn't llama using the Comedian's NK so early because he was being NK'ed himself presuppose that he knew he was going to be NK'ed? I've never played a game where hosts tell players in advance they're going to be NK'ed.

That said, the self-certainty of the move is reminiscent of llama, but I don't think this role match is the sure thing some people re making it out to be.

MovingPictures07 wrote:EBWOP: it should be noted that MANY of Elo's posts on Day 1 were interactions with Sloonei. Would a teammate be more likely to engage heavily with Sloonei or avoid interacting with him?

Regarding this and your review of her posts, I think she'd be less likely to interact significantly with a baddie teammate. Between this and the D1 vote timing, I'm feeling better about having backed off of Elo on Day 1.

Long Con wrote:

espers wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I self-voted. I don't feel comfortable voting anyone else right now, and I have to place my vote now.

Metalmarsh, i'd like to know your rationale for this. I saw in rym #86 that you like your WIFOM, but I can't really make any sense of a person self-voting from my perspective. were you really that afraid of missing the vote?

I can think of one very good reason.

So I'm reading this as you saying MM is playing the "Don't kill me, Mr. Rorschach, sir!" angle. Is that right, or are you suggesting there's more to it?

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:

Elohcin wrote:SO I have yet to read anything past my last post which was in reference to niju being killed. Her death saddens me. She is too cool to be killed off so early. Anyway....that said, I just want to say how much I hate these rainbow lists. Find me suspicious if you want but I haven't liked them from the beginning. MP ranks Niju as his top read of civilian and then she dies. It's like saying...."hey baddies, this is the person you should kill next." I know I have picked on you a lot this game MP. I don't mean anything by it, really. Your list the just the one I found first.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
- nijuukyugou is my new top read, and I'm willing to take a strong stand. She seems consistently genuine, her hesitance to pile onto Golden today bodes well, and her vote from D1 still stands out as very strong. That said, I hope to see even more baddie hunting from her. And I still am going to continue to examine and question her intentions as much as everyone else, if not even more so, but right now I have to admit that she looks better than all the rest of you.

Okay, so I just wanted to mention that. I have to get back to school now and do a little housework and then I will catch up on everything that's been said so far today. I have a splitting headache from staying up until 2am with Epi and Niju. I am SO old! And I didn't even have one drop to drink. Epi drank beer all evening and is totally fine. I don't get it.

The beer preserves him, Elo!

MP, sorry man, but I have to agree with Elo on this one. I get that you need to express your thoughts, but I think posting an absolute top civ read is detrimental to our cause. You're one of the most vocal players, which gives you a lot of clout, and (assuming for the moment you're civ) you joining forces with any other strong player would terrify most baddies. It seems an easy call for them to eliminate that person because it makes them a bigger threat. I think you could do just as much good and less harm by posting a general list of civ reads without singling out one person as the most civ ever.

Russ, thanks for your thoughts.

I personally wasn't saying Llama knew he would die; rather, he probably highly suspected he would die, since he had arguably the highest amount of civilian cred leaving the Day 1 lynch result, since he initiated suspicion of Sloonei, voted for him, and generally was not considered to have suspicion surrounding him in the slightest. Knowing Llama, I bet he thought he'd probably die, so he used his kill, thinking he wouldn't want to lose the chance if he did perish.

I appreciate what you and Elo have said about the Rainbow Lists. I know they're a love/hate thing to begin with. I suppose if everyone was creating them, and I wasn't posting A TON of content, my argument would make more sense. I'll try editing my approach going forward to concentrate on the bottom half of my list in detail, leaving the top half ambiguously in the same group. We'll see how that goes. What do you think?

Also, Russ, in a response to G-Man's vote analysis, you said this:

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:

G-Man wrote:Please note that these analyses are based off looking for the Inmates only. In my short time back in action, I don't think I've played enough games with serial killers (I'm assuming that's what we're classifying Moloch as) to get back in the groove of sniffing them out. This setup is very difficult because the typical mafia team (the Inmates) only has three members. Considering we caught one of those three members on Day 1, it is going to be very difficult to track the other two. We have to look for small patterns and vote sequences that might suggest a collaborative effort between two players.

Day 1 vote data is in the spoiler tag. Please look refer to it as you read over my assessments.

*insert data analysis, see original G-Man post for detail*

What I infer from the Day 1 votes:

-I'm still not sure what to make of Timmer's self-vote. I like the warning about possibly pulling a Deborah but would he try that shtick again so soon?

-There is potential for espers to be Sloonei's teammate and he wanted to or was encouraged to throw that final vote on Sloonei for the cred. I like what espers said about feeling something was off about Sloonei. They have played elsewhere before, right? Knowing meta is a powerful item on the tool belt, so I feel compelled to respect that. This leaves me feeling only neutral on espers, unlike the other Sloonei voters.

-LoRab's vote on me came before Sloonei picked up any votes. This is important because we should look for desperate votes after the Sloonei train picks up steam. LoRab focused on the LD issue in regards to my post. I already looked suspicious before any of that because I was more aggressive, assertive, and less playful than usual. Rather than trying to use the "he's different and that's sus" angle that had been mentioned, she comes at it from an angle with a unique twist by suggesting I was trying to evade the LD power. To let my tin-foil hatted hamster out of his cage for a moment, consider this: Both Sloonei vote and LoRab's vote came before Sloonei had any votes. Sure there was discussion but could it be that the two of them are teammates and they tried to divide and conquer by voting for two potential victims that could attract more votes. Unfortunately for them, any momentum for Niju and myself died down as the momentum on Sloonei ramped up.

-Russ's vote for me was crap but not crap enough for me to shift him off of a neutral read.

-After this we have MP07 joining in on Bass's vote for Scotty. MP07 went from being cordial with Scotty, to asking a question or two, to doubting the sincerity of his contributions and the soundness of his vote for Elo. He openly agrees with Bass and then adds a few more points for other people to consider. This after his suspicion of Sloonei eroded bit by bit over the course of the day. In short, MP07 seems to have built a case on why Scotty is suspicious while also posting several points on why Sloonei probably shouldn't be suspicious. All this occurs as MP07 votes for Scotty, making it a 3-2-2 race between Sloonei, Niju, and Scotty. With Niju being NK'd by the Inmates, we know that MP07 adding Scotty to the mix wasn't an attempt to save Niju. Could it have been an attempt to save Sloonei?

Something where someone was talking about me seems like the easiest place to sink my teeth in. Here goes. (I edited the quote above for length, so only the parts I'm responding to are there):

G-Man, this vote analysis format is cool, but I'm not totally understanding your color scheme here. Maybe you could provide a key for those of us new to this?

You're slightly mischaracterizing my vote here in saying I ONLY voted for you in order to not vote Elo, with no other reasoning. I thought (and still think) it was strange that you were so circumspect with your wording.

That said, your numerous explanations have made me feel a little better about it. More to the point, this is my first game seeing you post words, and your style over the last few days definitely cements you in my mind as a very careful thinker and something of a microanalyzer. So I think now that the careful wording is probably just in character for you.

Re: your timmer explanation, what is a Deborah?

I'd have to read espers to develop an opinion there, since I don't have one as of my first thread read-through.

I'm not really buying the LoRab angle on the D1 vote. You're saying you think two baddie teammates tried to start lynch trains on two separate people to save Sloonei before she got any votes? With only 3 of them total, it seems crazy to me that they'd split up their voting power so early if they thought Sloonei might need defending.

To me, honestly Golden's vote looks the worst here, and we know Golden was civ. So I guess at this point I'm a bit skeptical about MP's "treasure trove of D1 evidence" claim. I think MP's vote looks bad at first glance, because it came in late-ish for a non-Sloonei but early enough to be a very, very long-shot save attempt. However, throwing teammates under the bus is something MP has added to his game more recently, and it would have made more sense to try that here than to go for the save IMO. Also, MP's content has felt super classic good-guy MP to me so far.

So if anything, to me the currently most suspicious D1 vote is espers. Keep in mind, a baddie voting late in a lynch for a teammate actually has a LOWER risk than a civ doing the same thing, because they know they won't end up on Rorschach's hit list.

Linki: I dunno. I suppose Elo could be bad, but when she voted Sloonei it was tied up with Blooper. I dunno if I see a mafia Elo giving up on a teammate so early.

What I'm dying to know is, can you elaborate fully on what occurred in your thought process to make you say this:

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:Hmmm, having read back on espers he seems above-board to me so far. What he's brought to the discussion has been open and well-reasoned.

But idk who IS suspicious yet today. I feel like I'm stating back at Square One after missing yesterday - most of my reads so far are just slight gut and my "I always think _____ is ____." type stuff.

Do you still believe espers has the worst looking vote of D1?

Do you believe his post content cancels out the bad vote?

What is the propensity with which you'd consider an espers vote? Any other players?

Regarding Deborah, timmer was busy during the Biblical game, but because it was sockpuppet and he had seen players skate by in that game and other games before by constantly being in 'catch up' mode, he purposefully played the entire game in 'catch up' mode, to see how long he could get away with it. He was mafia.

Ugh! I almost forgot the Day was ending soon, so I'm catching up now. Sorry, people!

MP, the llama thing makes more sense now. And yes, I think your suggestion on your rainbow lists is a good one.

Regarding espers, like I said, it definitely seems one of the safer votes on the day. However, my suspicion of espers basically rests solely on that at the moment, and without seeing anything suspicious in his posts I doubt I'd go that way yet. I'd say 30% chance I vote him, but that's mainly because I don't have another stronger case atm. If I did it'd be lower.

Hmmm, having read back on espers he seems above-board to me so far. What he's brought to the discussion has been open and well-reasoned.

But idk who IS suspicious yet today. I feel like I'm stating back at Square One after missing yesterday - most of my reads so far are just slight gut and my "I always think _____ is ____." type stuff.

G-Man wrote:Please note that these analyses are based off looking for the Inmates only. In my short time back in action, I don't think I've played enough games with serial killers (I'm assuming that's what we're classifying Moloch as) to get back in the groove of sniffing them out. This setup is very difficult because the typical mafia team (the Inmates) only has three members. Considering we caught one of those three members on Day 1, it is going to be very difficult to track the other two. We have to look for small patterns and vote sequences that might suggest a collaborative effort between two players.

Day 1 vote data is in the spoiler tag. Please look refer to it as you read over my assessments.

Spoiler: show

DAY 1 RESULTS:

1. TIMMER (Timmer)<---Player = ???? (REASON: RL keeping him out of game yet)
2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE (REASON: wishy-washy on G-Man and hollow support of Llama)
3. NIJU (MM89)<---Player = ???? (REASON: No explanation given between vote #2 and #4- further reading needed)
4. G-MAN (LoRab)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Finds G-Man suspicious, no elaboration given- phrasing perhaps?)
5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Feels something is off with Sloonei)
6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Elo feels too light-hearted this game)
7. SCOTTY (Bass)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Buddied up to MP and not giving his own suspicions)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Sloonei being too defensive)
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)<---Player = ???? (REASON: [Given after he voted] Something off with Sloonei)
10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = ???? (REASON: LoRab making mountains out of molehills and calls BS on her assertion nothing is going on D1)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Had an a-ha moment on Scotty & his Elo vote was "weak")
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN (REASON: Voted in a rush without catching up from earlier)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Some of his responses felt scummy)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Always suspects Elo so he gave her a break & voted his #2)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)<---Player = ???? (REASON: "Impossible to fully address")
16. SLOONEI (espers)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Not buying Sloonei's defense- something's off)

NOT VOTING: Cookie, G-Man, Long Con


ALTERNATE FORMAT:

5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Feels something is off with Sloonei)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Sloonei being too defensive)
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)<---Player = ???? (REASON: [Given after he voted] Something off with Sloonei)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Some of his responses felt scummy)
16. SLOONEI (espers)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Not buying Sloonei's defense- something's off)


2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE (REASON: wishy-washy on G-Man and hollow support of Llama)
3. NIJU (MM89)<---Player = ???? (REASON: No explanation given between vote #2 and #4- further reading needed)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN (REASON: Voted in a rush without catching up from earlier)


4. G-MAN (LoRab)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Finds G-Man suspicious, no elaboration given- phrasing perhaps?)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Always suspects Elo so he gave her a break & voted his #2)


6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Elo feels too light-hearted this game)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)<---Player = ???? (REASON: "Impossible to fully address")


7. SCOTTY (Bass)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Buddied up to MP and not giving his own suspicions)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Had an a-ha moment on Scotty & his Elo vote was "weak")


1. TIMMER (Timmer)<---Player = ???? (REASON: RL keeping him out of game yet)


10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = ???? (REASON: LoRab making mountains out of molehills and calls BS on her assertion nothing is going on D1)


NOT VOTING:
Cookie<---Player = ????
G-Man<---Player = ????
Long Con<---Player = ????

What I infer from the Day 1 votes:

-I'm still not sure what to make of Timmer's self-vote. I like the warning about possibly pulling a Deborah but would he try that shtick again so soon?

-There is potential for espers to be Sloonei's teammate and he wanted to or was encouraged to throw that final vote on Sloonei for the cred. I like what espers said about feeling something was off about Sloonei. They have played elsewhere before, right? Knowing meta is a powerful item on the tool belt, so I feel compelled to respect that. This leaves me feeling only neutral on espers, unlike the other Sloonei voters.

-LoRab's vote on me came before Sloonei picked up any votes. This is important because we should look for desperate votes after the Sloonei train picks up steam. LoRab focused on the LD issue in regards to my post. I already looked suspicious before any of that because I was more aggressive, assertive, and less playful than usual. Rather than trying to use the "he's different and that's sus" angle that had been mentioned, she comes at it from an angle with a unique twist by suggesting I was trying to evade the LD power. To let my tin-foil hatted hamster out of his cage for a moment, consider this: Both Sloonei vote and LoRab's vote came before Sloonei had any votes. Sure there was discussion but could it be that the two of them are teammates and they tried to divide and conquer by voting for two potential victims that could attract more votes. Unfortunately for them, any momentum for Niju and myself died down as the momentum on Sloonei ramped up.

-Russ's vote for me was crap but not crap enough for me to shift him off of a neutral read.

-After this we have MP07 joining in on Bass's vote for Scotty. MP07 went from being cordial with Scotty, to asking a question or two, to doubting the sincerity of his contributions and the soundness of his vote for Elo. He openly agrees with Bass and then adds a few more points for other people to consider. This after his suspicion of Sloonei eroded bit by bit over the course of the day. In short, MP07 seems to have built a case on why Scotty is suspicious while also posting several points on why Sloonei probably shouldn't be suspicious. All this occurs as MP07 votes for Scotty, making it a 3-2-2 race between Sloonei, Niju, and Scotty. With Niju being NK'd by the Inmates, we know that MP07 adding Scotty to the mix wasn't an attempt to save Niju. Could it have been an attempt to save Sloonei?

Something where someone was talking about me seems like the easiest place to sink my teeth in. Here goes. (I edited the quote above for length, so only the parts I'm responding to are there):

G-Man, this vote analysis format is cool, but I'm not totally understanding your color scheme here. Maybe you could provide a key for those of us new to this?

You're slightly mischaracterizing my vote here in saying I ONLY voted for you in order to not vote Elo, with no other reasoning. I thought (and still think) it was strange that you were so circumspect with your wording.

That said, your numerous explanations have made me feel a little better about it. More to the point, this is my first game seeing you post words, and your style over the last few days definitely cements you in my mind as a very careful thinker and something of a microanalyzer. So I think now that the careful wording is probably just in character for you.

Re: your timmer explanation, what is a Deborah?

I'd have to read espers to develop an opinion there, since I don't have one as of my first thread read-through.

I'm not really buying the LoRab angle on the D1 vote. You're saying you think two baddie teammates tried to start lynch trains on two separate people to save Sloonei before she got any votes? With only 3 of them total, it seems crazy to me that they'd split up their voting power so early if they thought Sloonei might need defending.

To me, honestly Golden's vote looks the worst here, and we know Golden was civ. So I guess at this point I'm a bit skeptical about MP's "treasure trove of D1 evidence" claim. I think MP's vote looks bad at first glance, because it came in late-ish for a non-Sloonei but early enough to be a very, very long-shot save attempt. However, throwing teammates under the bus is something MP has added to his game more recently, and it would have made more sense to try that here than to go for the save IMO. Also, MP's content has felt super classic good-guy MP to me so far.

So if anything, to me the currently most suspicious D1 vote is espers. Keep in mind, a baddie voting late in a lynch for a teammate actually has a LOWER risk than a civ doing the same thing, because they know they won't end up on Rorschach's hit list.

Linki: I dunno. I suppose Elo could be bad, but when she voted Sloonei it was tied up with Blooper. I dunno if I see a mafia Elo giving up on a teammate so early.

Elohcin wrote:SO I have yet to read anything past my last post which was in reference to niju being killed. Her death saddens me. She is too cool to be killed off so early. Anyway....that said, I just want to say how much I hate these rainbow lists. Find me suspicious if you want but I haven't liked them from the beginning. MP ranks Niju as his top read of civilian and then she dies. It's like saying...."hey baddies, this is the person you should kill next." I know I have picked on you a lot this game MP. I don't mean anything by it, really. Your list the just the one I found first.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
- nijuukyugou is my new top read, and I'm willing to take a strong stand. She seems consistently genuine, her hesitance to pile onto Golden today bodes well, and her vote from D1 still stands out as very strong. That said, I hope to see even more baddie hunting from her. And I still am going to continue to examine and question her intentions as much as everyone else, if not even more so, but right now I have to admit that she looks better than all the rest of you.

Okay, so I just wanted to mention that. I have to get back to school now and do a little housework and then I will catch up on everything that's been said so far today. I have a splitting headache from staying up until 2am with Epi and Niju. I am SO old! And I didn't even have one drop to drink. Epi drank beer all evening and is totally fine. I don't get it.

The beer preserves him, Elo!

MP, sorry man, but I have to agree with Elo on this one. I get that you need to express your thoughts, but I think posting an absolute top civ read is detrimental to our cause. You're one of the most vocal players, which gives you a lot of clout, and (assuming for the moment you're civ) you joining forces with any other strong player would terrify most baddies. It seems an easy call for them to eliminate that person because it makes them a bigger threat. I think you could do just as much good and less harm by posting a general list of civ reads without singling out one person as the most civ ever.

Ok! I am back from hiking. And it seems like it went a lot better than Rico's - my only injury is a mild sunburn on both knees, of all places. Hope you get better soon!

Anyway, despite my best intentions, the first thing I did when I reached my apartment was catch up. So here are my responses to things I noticed. I'll try to break it up to avoid being mega-posty.

First off, RIP Scotty, llama, Golden, and Ninja Blooper. I don't have any reason to think any of you were bad, and all of you could have been huge assets. Pretty rough 2-day stretch following the hot start.

Golden wrote:And I think llama may have been the comedian. It's why he went all supatown.

I know Golden is dead, but MP and a number of others have echoed the sentiment, so maybe one of you could answer. I guess I'm having trouble understanding the logic here. doesn't llama using the Comedian's NK so early because he was being NK'ed himself presuppose that he knew he was going to be NK'ed? I've never played a game where hosts tell players in advance they're going to be NK'ed.

That said, the self-certainty of the move is reminiscent of llama, but I don't think this role match is the sure thing some people re making it out to be.

MovingPictures07 wrote:EBWOP: it should be noted that MANY of Elo's posts on Day 1 were interactions with Sloonei. Would a teammate be more likely to engage heavily with Sloonei or avoid interacting with him?

Regarding this and your review of her posts, I think she'd be less likely to interact significantly with a baddie teammate. Between this and the D1 vote timing, I'm feeling better about having backed off of Elo on Day 1.

Long Con wrote:

espers wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I self-voted. I don't feel comfortable voting anyone else right now, and I have to place my vote now.

Metalmarsh, i'd like to know your rationale for this. I saw in rym #86 that you like your WIFOM, but I can't really make any sense of a person self-voting from my perspective. were you really that afraid of missing the vote?

I can think of one very good reason.

So I'm reading this as you saying MM is playing the "Don't kill me, Mr. Rorschach, sir!" angle. Is that right, or are you suggesting there's more to it?

Holy shit, good job team! Beast mode, there.

I hereby drop my suspicion of llama until further notice. :P

So at the risk of adding fuel to the engine of what may be a forming bandwagon, something Scotty said right before the lynch pinged me, but it wasn't any of the stuff MP was talking about. Here it is:

Scotty wrote:

Bass_the_Clever wrote:
I still don't understand the "buddying". If my offhand comment about agreeing with MP's opinion on first-day lynching is to be considered "buddying" then sure, we're buddies, we're getting married next week and having 5 beautiful illegitimate children.

For the record, I'm getting strong civ read from you Bass, though you are suspicious of me

The hyperbole combined with the magnanimity just strikes me as off, somehow. Pretty defensive but also super restrained and friendly.

Hey Bass, I see one Watchman who could very easily go all LMS on us. Who's the other who you think can turn against civ interests??

Elohcin wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Elo, thanks!

How about: Where are you leaning for your vote today? Has it changed at all?

Linki with Ninja

If no one was finding me suspicious, I would most likely vote for G-man or sloonei (I know I said I would table my thoughts on sloonei). But, I am still back and forth on sloonei. He now finds me suspicious b/c I reread him and decided that I couldn't find any hard evidence against him? What?!? I wish G-Man would come in and talk.

But it looks like I may be trying to save myself :/

Why did you read him as "scummy" the first time, then? Moreover, why did you give in to a "vibe" rather than rereading him, if it would have left to the same lack of hard evidence, in theory?

I didn't give into a vibe, I just mentioned it. He challenged me to reread him and I found nothing astoundingly scummy. That was all. But his response to my response IS scummy to me.

MP your case on scotty makes a lot of sense.

There's a case on Scotty? I think I missed it. Anyone with a reminder or link to the case?

MP, your policy of underlining names to direct things to people is super helpful, btw.

Went G-Man. Mainly because what I said about always being suspicious of Elo. I think I should give her a breather.

I'm thinking Elo, G-Man, or llama, myself. Probably in that order of suspicion. Though G-Man, then Elo, might work too. Have to vote, ahhhh!