The Syndicate

Ricochet wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Russ, what would MM's past votes have to do with what happened today and who he might be?

Also are you in any way serious about backsliding about your motel vote? I believe I have a good understanding of your vote, so don't give me the heebie-jeebies now, by saying you would have definitely switched it off, especially after a day of intense case-making to support that vote.

And I'm good. Good good. Hear my voice, Russ.

Well if your theory is right, it makes sense for him not to want to broadcast his role. They were made to hide, I figure.

Not trying to give you the heebie jeebies, man. motel was my biggest suspect, but MM was my clear #2. Just for different reasons than JJJ. If I had been able to be around I'd have pushed hard for a motel lynch, but with the tally what it was, if I couldn't have convinced anyone to join me, I believe I'd have switched to avoid shenanigans. I just didn't think shenanigans had actually happened when I wrote that, since a 5-2 vote looked solid.

Not sure if we're thinking of the same role... I already told JJJ it's definitely not about Blind.

If you would have convinced anyone else to join you on motel, it wouldn't have changed the outcome of motel being lynched. If you would have stepped away from motel, it might have changed the outcome.

Yeah I know it's not Blind. Now I'm getting confused about what you're talking about.

You're right on both counts, and I think that's why it looks bad for me. I can't really defend except to say that I genuinely could not be here until I posted, and I thought the poll ended an hour after it did. JJJ seems to have been under the same impression, with the difference that he was available before the new poll end time.

DrWilgy wrote:Actually, I may be an idiot.

Regardless, I still thought that you should know what I said. The only situation where it doesn't apply is if I'm horribly mistaken about how this game is working.

@Russ, it's all I can do. Why are you just questioning my cryptic info hinting when Rico made a statement like he did?

Because it's possible to deduct at least in a general sense what he's talking about.

Ricochet wrote:Russ, what would MM's past votes have to do with what happened today and who he might be?

Also are you in any way serious about backsliding about your motel vote? I believe I have a good understanding of your vote, so don't give me the heebie-jeebies now, by saying you would have definitely switched it off, especially after a day of intense case-making to support that vote.

And I'm good. Good good. Hear my voice, Russ.

Well if your theory is right, it makes sense for him not to want to broadcast his role. They were made to hide, I figure.

Not trying to give you the heebie jeebies, man. motel was my biggest suspect, but MM was my clear #2. Just for different reasons than JJJ. If I had been able to be around I'd have pushed hard for a motel lynch, but with the tally what it was, if I couldn't have convinced anyone to join me, I believe I'd have switched to avoid shenanigans. I just didn't think shenanigans had actually happened when I wrote that, since a 5-2 vote looked solid.

Diiny wrote:tinfoil hats are so last year. I personally opt for the tinfoil lensless thick frame glasses. Help you tinfoil and tunnel vision at the same time, plus reflects scumbeams.

I'm really proud of scumbeams.

This is incredible.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Go Bengals

Who dey!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Also, for the record, if I'd been here in time I'd have switched to MM out of caution. I like motel room more, but MM is my #2 and I think trying to vote mostly together is smart.

Your whipping boy is dead and town. What are you going to do now?

Holy fuck. RIP motel. Sorry I was wrong about you, and sorry my vote (apparently) contributed to your demise.

I think this looks pretty bad for me, especially with the post I made about how I'd have changed my vote. I was being serious earlier, though. The poll said it ended at 6:56pm, JJJ said he saw it too. I couldn't machete back from work for a 5:56pm deadline, but I fully intended to be here for the 7pm EOD. Hosts, can you offer any insight into why the time on the poll end could have changed? And/or does anyone have a screenshot from earlier in the day?

JJJ, I dunno what to tell you. All I can really do is keep re-evaluating players and try to make up for it. MM and Wilgy were my next two highest suspects, but, along Rico's line of thinking, if I'm understanding correctly, this pretty much clears MM. It also explains his votes the past 3 days or so.

So Wilgy is my worst read at the moment. Diiny could still be bad, although as I said, he read better to me on my last reread. Rico is the only one I haven't read recently, looks like I need to get on that asap. Although I think the fact that he brought the potential manipulation to our attention is a point in his favor already, and as JJJ said, he's probably the second-hardest-working person here.

Linki: Wilgy, why more cryptic info hinting? This clearly is to helping anyone at this point.

Also, for the record, if I'd been here in time I'd have switched to MM out of caution. I like motel room more, but MM is my #2 and I think trying to vote mostly together is smart.

Oh shit! Wait I could've sworn the poll said it ended at 6:56, not 5:56. I updated my time for DST and everything. Thought I time to be present for EOD.

Wow, and things were quiet all yesterday and today we got 5 pages.

Off to read up on what happened.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:4) MM's vote two day periods ago killed Choutas, the only confirmed civvie (and, I would argue, the only civvie) on the block that day. It also saved motel from a 1/3 chance of dying (assuming MP randomizes ties, as he has done in the past). You might say this is far-fetched, but keep in mind that there were 11 players alive at this point. As JJJ said, the worst case for us there is 7-3-1, with their kill coming up and at least one from the SK, so that lynch was absolutely huge.

The next day, he asked MM about it, but didn't apply any real pressure or follow up. Then yesterday, MM spent all day trying to get Fuzz dead instead of Bullz. My suspicion is that Fuzz was drugged, and that if even a single civ had joined him, motel would've hopped on and they'd have taken their chances with the SK, knowing the civs were done.

I want to keep this by itself, but post support (lots of it, sorry) coming.

This is where I think you might be stretching into an overly theoretical realm, Russ. If MM is mafia, then his vote for Choutas can be reasoned more simply as "saved Bullzeye" without needing to implement all of these other motel room-relevant possibilities into the thought process. If you're right, then that means the SK has failed to kill even a single mafioso throughout the entire game. Do you have conviction in making that statement?

Yeah, it's possible I got overly complex here. I'll try to run you through where I'm coming from on this point:

1) motel room is my top suspect. I don't really suspect MM.
2) The vote that killed Choutas undoubtedly saved Bullz, but it also saved motel and it came from motel. So again, you can decide how far-fetched this is, but it's at least possible MM voted motel expecting he'd never be a leader and had to move when he was. It would explain why MM switched to Choutas as opposed to an off-wagon.
3) If you're a baddie, saving 2 baddies is better than saving 1.
So the vote undoubtedly looks super bad for MM, and his vote yesterday isn't inspiring either. But I previously didn't suspect MM to any great degree, and since motel room was involved that's where my eye went first.

So in conclusion, yeah, you're right, a motel room link isn't necessary to see MM as bad here. You could even reasonably say MM would be more likely to save Bullz if it were just the two of them alive, so I see your point.

I've been assuming no baddies killed yet because that's the most conservative assumption, and I think assuming the worst is generally a good move for the civs. I don't have a huge deal of conviction in it, though, as late in the game as we are. Your posts makes me realize though that the difference between looking for lone baddie behavior as opposed to baddie pair behavior could be night and day, so it will probably pay off to consider both perspectives.


I personally feel more sure of motel and would prefer to vote there today. Given your points and his terribad votes, though, I would consider MM as a second option.

Bed.

JJJ, I super appreciate you engaging with my case, and having me reread yours.

Again, since I'm trying to be brief, it's hard to address your case point by point. I'll start with: I buy that the scum spew analyses could lead to some useful stuff, but you haven't sold me that what other people say about a player is more valuable than what that player themselves says and does during the game. I'm honestly not sure you will be able to sell me on that, so we may just be at an impasse regarding it.

That said, I think there is some value to the points you brought up. I'll highlight them below, and at the bottom I'll try to briefly say why I agree or don't on a couple.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Attention Russtifinko: (this is not a vote)

There are the points I made about motel room that I thought worked in his favor -- primarily confirmed mafia members saying things that I thought reflected well on him as a non-team mate prospect. Please look these over and tell me where you disagree. I really need to be engaged on these specifically to have much chance of your very different perspective resonating with me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Mafia spew about motel room:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

Long Con wrote:As for the "2 out of 7 BWT voters are bad" idea... it's arbitrary and unhelpful. Maybe none of them are bad, and the people trying to push this idea as if it's a real, supported theory are hoping to milk it for 1 to 7 Civvie lynches. Maybe 4 out of the 7 are bad, and the baddie team decided to save one of their own who was getting up there in votes.

A more reasonable theory is that (Nothing But) Flowers is an RYM person who wanted to hide their vote in the biggest bandwagon. That, at least, makes some sense. Talking about that makes me think of someone (McDougal? motel room?) who brought up that role. When I read that post, it felt suspicious to me, like the reason for bringing it up was because they were that role, or at least a teammate. I want to go back and read it again.

Linki: RIP you guys.

This was the post that inspired me to get into this method of analysis. Long Con and Mac had their well-documented exchange about the Flowers role, and here we see LC involving motel room in that matter as well. This is curious because motel room never said anything about the Flowers role. LC forced motel's name into this post for no reason, and I think it's meant to be something that people like me come back and look at later. Anyone was capable of determining that it was Mac who brouhght up the Flowers role, so their mafia-mafia interaction can be easily discerned now. There's no reason for motel room to exist in this post and I think that's because LC attempted to shove a smear job in for good measure. Good look for motel room IMO.

Spoiler: show

Long Con wrote:

motel room wrote:

Long Con wrote:

Choutas wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Voting Seaside until he explains his numerous arbitrary reads to satisfaction.

Your view of Seaside is right and I agree with it it's just that he told me before the game starts that he'll try his best to get lynched early in order to have more free time. It might sound ridiculous but I know Seaside and he's frankly ridiculous. On the other hand if he stops playing midway he'll be a problem to the mods and us.

It's a lose-lose situation to me.

Ugh. It makes me want to lynch him, but not because I particularly believe he was handed a Mafia card at the start. It's ugly, and ugly is such a smelly word.

I just want to quote this so Long Con doesnt get to drop a vote on someone he's not sold as being scum later on by sewing the seeds for it now. Which is how this feels.

Thanks for keeping an eye on me, but my vote is more likely to go to someone I think is Mafia.

motel room cast suspicion on LC and LC responded with this sort of "whatever dude" incredulity -- a contrast from his mutual antagonism with Mac's criticisms.

Spoiler: show

MacDougall wrote:

motel room wrote:

MacDougall wrote:

motel room wrote:

MacDougall wrote:I'm actually unvoting sorsha and changing my vote to MattF. Something about him is not what it seems my friends. And I aim to get to the bottom of it.

I don't get why you've switched from Sorsha, at one point saying you wont switch for anything less than someone saying "i am scum", to Matt F because of a few "pings". This is a significant bandwagon.

I switched to MattF to get a reaction out of him mate. Sorsha looks safely lynched so I'm pretty much free to throw my vote around to scare scum.

Unvote MattF, vote motel room.

See.

Well like

Now you're just hopping to muddy your intentions even further. Do you think Sorsha is scum or not?

No I'm not. I'm trying to upset you to see if you will break that super cautious posting style you've got there. Please don't state opinions as fact.

Yes gun to head I believe sorsha is scum. I had a bad feeling that there are scum on the wagon but now that a solid Devin wagon is being put together at the last minute in an attempt to get sorsha unlynched, the predictable has occurred when a scum is about be hung so I'm comfy again.

Changing my vote back to sorsha.

Mac claims he is prodding motel room to "break that super cautious posting style" motel room had been exhibiting. This reads to me like an attempt by Mac to simulate a townie mindset by using his vote as a scumhunting tool. This means motel room as the target is a circumstantial presence rather one deliberately sought for the purpose of distancing. I mildly like this for motel room too.

Spoiler: show

MacDougall wrote:

motel room wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

motel room wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Not surprised with any of that.

Two SK kills, no nightkill?

You heard me.

still don't how to feel about this.

The scum don't kill every night ya fucken.

Reads to me as genuine oversight by motel room, and perhaps annoyance by Mac at the plight his team faces with semi-nightly kills. :P

Spoiler: show

MacDougall wrote:

motel room wrote:"

Epignosis wrote:

motel room wrote:

Epignosis wrote:"There's no alternate bandwagon, so Mac must be good. Let's make an alternate bandwagon"

Is this at someone? Is this suspicion?

It's what just happened.

, said Epignosis in the thread that contained the mafia game being played.", said motel room, implying that commentary is more arms-length distancing shit but whatever.

motel room asks epi a question that he sarcastically replies to and then motel room is starting to see just how not town epi really is itt right now.

Mashes motel room's face into Epi's posts. This doesn't look like team mate interaction to me.

Spoiler: show

MacDougall wrote:I think with the Russ vote there's not much point trying to save me motel room, though I appreciate the effort.

lol. Bite if you want.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

TheFloyd73 wrote:

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:My first lack of inclusion was genuinely from stuff going on in my life that was messing with my head. And I will say AGAIN that if you wish to discuss this further, please PM me.

Has anyone PMed you?

No, not about that topic anyway. would you like to be the first?

Oh ok, like just from teammates?

I hope your head's ok now man.

Thanks, dude. Im feeling a little bit better, but the scars still remain

motel room was the one that prodded Floyd into the PMs scumslip. Floyd bit. It looks like an organic exchange to me.

Spoiler: show

TheFloyd73 wrote:

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:So, which roles remain at the moment?

why are you interested?

I want to know how many Mafia remain. If I can work out who's scum, I could perhaps put roles on them.

Floyd employs one of the few distinct strategic moves he offered in this game. motel room asked him what he was doing, and he tried to explain himself. Again, doesn't look like team mate interaction to me.

~~~

I will look over your points against him now and state my perspectives, Russ.

The green I do find valuable. As for the others: I agree LC treated motel differently than Mac. I'm not sure I buy that LC threw his name in to cast shade, as opposed to just not knowing who wrote it. It was really early in a 34-person game, and I use exactly that mode of language to signify that I can't clearly remember who wrote something, too.

As for the Floyd stuff, I disagree completely with your interpretation. You see a civ prodding a baddie with some success; I see a baddie very lightly prodding another baddie but then never following up on any of the reasonable suspicions that could come to light from it. To me it looks like a way to be able to avoid putting real heat on Floyd while still getting to take credit when he flips bad. I think both are reasonable interpretations, but we're both coming into them from such different starting points that I don't see one of us being convinced (and I mean specifically about the Floyd stuff there; still hoping you can see my case).

I find the BR-Rico post you made somewhat valuable as well, although again, it could just be that Mac was being talked about a lot at that point in the game and so it was obvious why he'd be mentioned there, whereas motel wasn't so much.

The point remains for me, though, that while a few of your points do look good for motel (mildly so, imo), some just don't register with me, and what remains isn't enough to outweigh what he's done as a player so far. I find the Fuzz point you made by far the most convincing one so far. It does seem weird to do something that in hindsight would give Fuzz more civvie cred if motel knew Bullz was bad.

Linki: Ah dammit you're right. Seems likely Blind was targeted by both that Night. Can we at least get a list of Night 5 non-posters who still remain?

Ok, trying to keep this brief because I am dead tired.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:False.

Night 5: Nobody was removed from the poll on Day 6, so nobody could have been roleblocked. One of his powers wouldn't have gone through without the other one.

Night 7: Choutas was removed from the poll Day 8, meaning that somebody from the Syndicate was roleblocked. Remember that I am from RYM in this game.

Those were the two nights that Life during Wartime attempted and failed to perform a nightkill. The Night 7 one is more relevant because Strawhenge made his comment on Day 8, and Psycho Killer made a kill attempt that night (that also failed).

My point is that Strawhenge could not have targeted me on Night 7, as his roleblock would have had to gone to a Syndicate member.

So based on this, if we have any idea at all when Choutas might have flipped, then we can figure out whether the SK is Syndicate or RYM, right? And if we do that and cross-reference it with who didn't post on N5, we might be able to narrow down the SK to a very very few players? I would do it myself, but I am unable to figure out whether the above means the SK would be Synd or RYM. I'd be grateful to wiser people who were able to get on it.

I honestly think this might be the most important issue today. I think getting baddies > getting the SK under normal circumstances, but the reality at this point is that this guy could potentially kill twice tonight, and getting him now could save us from that.

Finished. I apologize that I took basically a whole page with that, but felt it all needed to be said.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Russ I don't mean to be ignorant of your case against motel room. I understand your suspicion of him, it isn't
hard to compile evidence against him (the case looks a lot like a case against me is likely to look. When I did my spew review for him (I think on Day 10), it eased some of my concerns. I'd ask that you find that review and take a look -- you can show me where you disagree. I want to discuss your read on motel room further, but I think this is a necessary starting point.

I can't easily reference it myself on my phone.

I hate to be this way, but I've spent over 4 hours mafia-ing today after working 9 hours. I'm going to bed. I'll have very limited time after work tomorrow, so I'll try to get to it then.

I will say, the case on him looks different to me in a number of ways. You didn't defend Floyd or ignore BR, you didn't say lynching civs was ok, when people accuse you of stuff you respond by posting even more analysis instead of saying the case is bad and thus whoever posted it is too, and you're posting a hell of a lot more. All points in your favor in my opinion.

If there's one thing about motel that gives me pause, it's the following post. I assume it came up in your review? Two now-confirmed baddies basically gang up on motel because he questioned the wisdom of lynching Devin after the failed Sorsha lynch. I do find it a very good look, but to me it's an island of good in a sea of bad.
If you can find more like this, and convince me that my theory of how he's handled teammates is incredibly unlikely, then I'm willing to see it another way. In all honestly, though, I think it would take a lot, because to me the pieces all fit except for this single post.

motel room wrote:I see I'm a contender today ok I can understand that, my contributions have been dropping. If I have to vote to save myself I won't vote these players - JJJ, choutas, strawhenge - so line your bandwagons up accordingly scum.

This one is important for my theory of the past 2 days. Why didn't motel room vote Choutas instead of MM doing it? Because he said he wouldn't, right here, and it would've looked too obvious to take back. He did vote Bullzeye that Day, which looks ok, but keep in mind that Bullz had more or less given up by this point. motel hadn't mentioned him before that I found, so to me it looks like distancing of a soon-to-be-dead teammate.

"How He Defends" Stuff:

On Day 7, Matt F made a big case against motel. You can read for yourselves since it's long (with motel's responses). He mostly keeps it cool, but there are a few light moments of bringing it back on Matt during. I bring this up because it becomes a trend.

Here Choutas says that motel room has called Choutas scum more than he's called seaside scum, and questions why motel room voted seaside. motel responds that Chou is "twisting shit".

In fairness, I'll note that he had what read to me like a calm and well-reasoned defense from Matt's case here:
However, Matt keeps pushing and he gets testy. Lots of sarcasm here, calls Matt "obtuse", and please note the again, SUPER quilty soft Floyd defense at the bottom.
In response to my point about lynching civs not being ok:

motel room wrote:how come there's no jack-off-hand-gesture smilie

I actually missed this before and it's hilarious. However, it shows a dismissive and snide demeanor to cases against him, which he continues going forward and which I most often see as a baddie tell.

In response to a very large case from sig, a major NO U:

motel room wrote:If you're interested in my opinion, I don't think you actually feel one way or another about me. You are giving yourself too much wiggle room here saying I'm scummy (seriously, check that last para saying I'm scummy three times in four sentences) but then I might not be. You say that by changing my mind on Diiny you see that as me trying to distance myself from.. mac? Who is my "teammate" in this scenario?

This is weak sig. I'm not buying it.

looks like I fucked up the quoting and its too hard to get right. Putting the responses in yellow.

linki - about a million posts

motel room wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

motel room wrote:Why am I so far down your list there?

Beyond the evidence that I think you're aware of and admittedly in some cases you share with me, I think it's what appears to be a recent dive in your enthusiasm. You're making the posts you have to make, but you aren't really moving this thread very much that I can recall. It's like you're going through the motions. That lengthy response to sig is another example -- you're not defending yourself as much as critiquing his analysis.

I don't feel like there's anything to defend against. Out of my vocal opposers sigs case is the laziest, Russ' is the most opportunistic and Matt's is thumb-suckingly narrow minded but I think he's being genuine although he seems to be ignoring my responses.

That enthusiasm thing isn't right though. I'm still in this despite vanishing for weekends. Coming back to a mountain of pages makes it hard to narrow down what to do next. Defend myself is first. Comment on current shit is second I think cos at least then I have a frame of reference for other things and I feel like you get a better sense of instinct when posts are playing out in front of you. After that its a matter of time which is something I don't have a lot to prioritise to mafia anymore. I still enjoy it (and you know I enjoy it most as vanilla town puzzle solver so I think that's where your enthusiasm check is coming from which is fair) but yeah constantly playing catch up at work puts me on the back foot fairly often these days.

His next rainbow list had me and sig, 2 of the three suspecting him, at the bottom, and Matt F somewhere towards the middle, but he then made 2 posts saying he doubted Matt's intentions with his case:

motel room wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

motel room wrote:I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac.

motel room wrote:I actually feel like JJJ and Floyd will flip town.

Please esplain.

Which part? I wont be surprised if they were both town, but I'm not sold so hard as to defend them and they are both potential distractions now at this point and if not lynched now will probably ride on as lynch contenders until the end of the game is all.

Hopefully you all recognize this by now. motel room says lynching a civ JJJ would be ok, so we can stop debating whether to lynch a civ JJJ. This is when he popped up heavily on my radar. I said Mac did the same thing, and his explanation did not satisfy:

motel room wrote:do you see the difference between what I'm suggesting and what Mac was suggesting? Mac thinks lynching Sorsha will leave behind all these clues he's super eager to get into, I'm suggesting lynching JJJ crosses him off the list the end. No more bickering about whether he's scum or town or what because look it's happening again today "JJJ should still be on the table for a lynch", "what do we think about JJJ?" over and over.

Damn, got my stuff mixed up, that was supposed to go up by the BR stuff. Sorry. There is a lot of material here...

First really bad look for motel, in my opinion. As you know, he was defending Mac probably the second-hardest of anyone (besides JJJ), and her suggests 4 people he'd rather lynch. 2 confirmed civ, 1 killed by SK, one still alive.

To me the most interesting point about the was that he said he'd analyze the fingers-Roxy-BR debate. He never got around to taking any kind of stance on it before they were modkilled.

motel room wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Who should we make dead, aokiji?

espers or epi.
To a slightly lesser extent, Diiny or Devin.

You asked before about roxy, fingersplints and black rock? I might make it my business, fluffing around at work this Fri arvo, to figure out what the difference between them is cos I have no reads there at all.

Floyd stuff:

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:My first lack of inclusion was genuinely from stuff going on in my life that was messing with my head. And I will say AGAIN that if you wish to discuss this further, please PM me.

Has anyone PMed you?

No, not about that topic anyway. would you like to be the first?

Oh ok, like just from teammates?

I hope your head's ok now man.

Goes after Floyd for a slip, but backs off pretty quickly. (Mac did this too, by the way.) His later explanation was this:

motel room wrote: i did that thing about asking about his PMs and he fell for it but every time I try and do a trap like that in RYM I only get townies who just didnt get what i was insinuating. Also I felt bad after.

Here he pokes Floyd again, but never follows up on it.

motel room wrote:Hello Floyd. I see you have your vote on Matt F. ok

Out of Mac or Diiny who do you think should be lynched?

Very soft Floyd defense here, and subtle pushing of 2 confirmed civs and JJJ.

motel room wrote:I'm happy to vote seaside or Choutas. I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac. I'm not confident about Floyd because of his lack of content but my gut says he'd flip town.

That's where my head's at just now.

And again, VERY soft but defensive on Floyd.

motel room wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

motel room wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Zzzzzz...

Voting bcornett.

What about the top lynch contenders?

Right back at you.

I wouldn't mind lynching seaside, but I still believe Jay is mafia.

I'm not sure yet who to pick between JJJ and Floyd when push comes to shove but I would much rather lynch seaside.

Removing either of them has its benefits.

Again, very very lightly calls Floyd on something, but doesn't pursue it.

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:

motel room wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:So, which roles remain at the moment?

why are you interested?

I want to know how many Mafia remain. If I can work out who's scum, I could perhaps put roles on them.

we don't know definitively which roles remain. But you should definitely try that working out who's scum thing.

Mac and BR stuff:

motel room wrote:

MacDougall wrote:Self pres voting wilgy

I'll get on Epi if you go back to voting there.

Not anti wilgy atm. Out of the other 2-vote "wagons" I'd go Diiny or I guess Black Rock.

No one wants to stacks-on Choutas with me? Carn.

Again mentions a large number of people he'd vote over Mac, but without really trying too hard to get anyone to go there. Reads to me like a very soft attempt to save Mac. The Mac save shouldn't be surprising, since he had already said he'd do it, but the sheer number of people he's willing to vote with no case reads wrong to me. Note that he mentions Black Rock despite never having posted that he figured out what the suspicion on her was for, but she seems to be his least favorite of potential candidates.

Then, despite never posting that he even knows what the case against her is, much less agrees with it, he follows JJJ's vote onto BR. About an hour later, he switches to Diiny. I see this as a fall back distancing move.

motel room wrote:alrighty, Black Rock

motel room wrote:Diiny then

The day of Mac's lynch, though, motel room puts his vote on Choutas before reading the thread. Keep in mind here, he had recently mentioned 4 other players he wanted lynched over Mac, and Choutas wasn't among them. Furthermore, Choutas was the guy he switched to on Day 2 for a time, and he switched because he didn't like Choutas' reasoning on LC, the player motel room originally and finally voted for.

motel room wrote:grabbing a coffee, dealing with monday morning waste of time catch up meetings, and reading through what ive missed over the weekend.

motel room wrote:oh and voting Choutas

One of his biggest posts to this point, telling everyone how unlikely it is that anyone bussed LC. Makes sure to defend Mac, reiterate how important his vote on LC was, and oh by the way, why would anyone suspect BR? I said I was going to read it, but I guess I forgot.

motel room wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

motel room wrote:These elaborate scum bussing strategies that are being put forward, are they common here on the Syndicate? Because while they can happen over on RYM the most common scum strategy is just lay low pretty much. Bussing is rarely organised and generally just a self-preservation technique.

So reading all of this about how Long Con set up this big ol bus seems so far fetched to me. Remembering back to the day he was lynched, he was a contender but not the contender. I'm fairly sure that my return vote on him put him back in the lead and I know I did that from a genuine suspicion of him so I can't really get behind any of these "strategy" scenarios. He may have wanted out and told teammates not to fight it too hard but I really doubt it was a planned bus. My two cents, for the guy who is pretty sure Mac is scum cos of that idea. I still think mac is town.

Black Rock is the next major lynch contender, what's the deal there?

Ok so if LC may have wanted out, but told teammates not to fight it, where are they?

Same question as to Mac: considering that, except for Epig, the b24 had civs and LC on it, if you're saying the mafia wouldn't have planned an LC bus, then where do you see them having gone, in your opinion? We're talking six players here.

I dont know where they are. I dont even know if that happened. I'm just giving my perspective on the whole ordeal. I would guess it was like any other lynch goes - some scum here, some scum there. I'm sure there would have been a scum on the LC lynch wagon, I just dont think it was planned, it seems like a stretch.

Rico brings this up, mentioning that Mac talked along similar lines, and motel says maybe some scum were there, but that he doubts it was planned (implying that early votes to LC couldn't possibly be busses).

Case on motel room (summary first because I decided that's easiest):

My basic points are this:

1) He said it was ok to lynch civs for no reason. ("We know, Russti! Chirssakes shut up about that already!" "Ok, sorry guys, got it. Moving on...")

2) He's had very interesting interactions with the baddies we've gotten. Now I admit, it's far from certain LC was bussed. But if he did ask his team to bus him for credit, who stood to gain more than the guy who put the first vote on him, and then switched off and back on again when it mattered? However, even if you can't buy that, I'll show that motel room said he'd develop a read on BR and never did, defended Mac, and very very softly and consistently defended Floyd. "But he pushed hard for Bullzeye!", you say. Oh, you mean the Bullzeye who decided he didn't want to play any more and asked to be out? I'm saying he went hard after two people who asked to be killed, ignored an inactive teammate, and defended two others very consistently, albeit in different ways.

3) His reactions to points raised against him have, the majority of the time (although to be fair, not all the time), been to dismiss, ridicule, or NO U his case makers, primarily Matt F, sig, and myself.

4) MM's vote two day periods ago killed Choutas, the only confirmed civvie (and, I would argue, the only civvie) on the block that day. It also saved motel from a 1/3 chance of dying (assuming MP randomizes ties, as he has done in the past). You might say this is far-fetched, but keep in mind that there were 11 players alive at this point. As JJJ said, the worst case for us there is 7-3-1, with their kill coming up and at least one from the SK, so that lynch was absolutely huge.

The next day, he asked MM about it, but didn't apply any real pressure or follow up. Then yesterday, MM spent all day trying to get Fuzz dead instead of Bullz. My suspicion is that Fuzz was drugged, and that if even a single civ had joined him, motel would've hopped on and they'd have taken their chances with the SK, knowing the civs were done.

I want to keep this by itself, but post support (lots of it, sorry) coming.

Anyway, Diiny read: I was surprised that Wilgy had posted more content than I thought, but this Diiny read surprised me even more. I suppose by this point, everyone alive has posted valuable stuff. I previously had Diiny as a strong SK candidate, but now I very much doubt it. I had missed that he was so aggressive starting on Day 1, and a complete read through gives me the sense that he's been stylistically consistent throughout the game. His contribution level has risen and fallen with rl stuff, but he's pretty much stuck to the same tone all game long, and the fact that it's a somewhat confrontational one makes me doubt the SK read.

I'm also not seeing many interactions of any kind with baddies. Not sure if that's a point for or against Diiny, but it at least doesn't trip any alarms for me.

I wouldn't vote for Diiny today.

Linki: motel, my complaint isn't wrong. Lynching civs is not ever a good idea. However, your point is taken: I owe you a case. I'll get it out later tonight. Regarding your point on MM and you voting different ways, it's WIFOM. Seems silly to save teammates just to have everyone figure out that you all voted together and lynch you sequentially.

Thanks!

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?

Because I'm terrible.

Or possibly because he's on a team with motel room....

Seriously, though, is no one at all interested in this? I feel like I've been playing pretty hard the past few days, posting detailed reads and what I felt was a really compelling, in-depth case with this, and I'm just not being engaged on it at all.

What can I do to make you care? Has the analysis just moved so far on that analyzing player behavior is out and I'm just not with the times? Am I presenting my stuff in a way that isn't interesting or convincing? Or is there just a lack of interest in what I say generally?

I'm trying to help but feel like I'm not getting anything done with my posts.

Will analyze Diiny now because I promised I would.

Linki: Oh, JJJ? Interested to hear your thoughts on MM.

Thanks, all! I'm very very excited.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:So I went back to read Wilgy expecting to basically see a whole lot of nothing. My gut read of him said it was a guy who tried really hard to start the game (see: ACEO campaign) and has been dropping off steadily since. I was pleasantly surprised, though. He's contributed a lot more substantive content than I thought.

I do see a few points against him, most of which have been brought up already:
- As Diiny mentioned (yesterday?), he has been fairly floppy floppy on RadicalFuzz, even though they read each other well.
- He was mentioned a lot by baddies (JJJ covered this in his scum spew analysis).
- He has posted large graphs and charts with little analysis to accompany them. (A number of people have discussed this already.)

Things I personally don't like are his declining contributions the past Day period or two, and the fact that he keeps asking people to infodump. I'm given to understand that info is cool on RYM, but RadicalFuzz has said that Wilgy knows the rules here. He seems determined to stretch them to their limit.

I actually feel moderately positive on Wilgy now, despite the shade he's getting. I don't really see him as a super likely SK either, since he's taken enough hard stances (Choutas and bcornett) to get some negative attention.

The case against him has been about things that other people have said (MacDougall mainly), not what he's said.

That is what I have gathered.

Yeah, you're right on that. I'm not ignoring those points, but they've already been discussed. I do best finding baddies through players' gameplay, so I'm adding my thoughts to that discussion.

DrWilgy wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:Wilgy if you think I'm scum why did you save me? You had an emphatic defense of me. Why?

That wasn't a scumdoodle placement. The formatting was a garbo mobile attempt though.

JJJ
Bullzeye
Fuzz

Everyone else I haven't had time to look into recently, nor do I have any strong opinion.

Wilgy, come on. You have reads on 3 of 9 possible players, two of whom are dead now, so your only remaining read is that JJJ is the SK? You say you're trying, but I find it hard to buy when I read this drivel.

RadicalFuzz wrote:

Diiny wrote:How do you know it's a misconception?????

I am confused as to how serious this is, but I'll attempt to answer it.

I know it's a misconception because I know that I don't necessarily read Wilgy that well and have said as much. Other people are saying that I do read Wilgy extremely well. That's not true, therefore a misconception? It's wrong, either way, is my point. We play off each other very well, yes, but interestingly enough that doesn't include the ability to read him, at least from my end.

Ugh I wish you wren't dead! If you can't read Wilgy that well, why go after him relatively hard for such a long period? You had to have seen something to be that confident.

That's it for me tonight. I'll get to Diiny tomorrow to firm up my read on him.

I'm glad the Halloween thing worked out, but I owe you guys more advance notice on this since it won't be a similar situation (I'm the only one busy):

My girlfriend is visiting me this weekend, and I'm planning on proposing to her. I basically want her weekend to be perfect, so it's more likely than not that I'll have little to no participation from Friday evening to sometime Monday (she leaves Monday morning, but I work during the day). I apologize in advance that I'll be gone during such an important time in such an intense game. However, I (hopefully) only get one chance to get this proposal right. That just has to be my priority, so as much as it sucks for you guys, you should fully expect me to do a VERY quick read on Sunday and basically drive-by vote.

So I went back to read Wilgy expecting to basically see a whole lot of nothing. My gut read of him said it was a guy who tried really hard to start the game (see: ACEO campaign) and has been dropping off steadily since. I was pleasantly surprised, though. He's contributed a lot more substantive content than I thought.

I do see a few points against him, most of which have been brought up already:
- As Diiny mentioned (yesterday?), he has been fairly floppy floppy on RadicalFuzz, even though they read each other well.
- He was mentioned a lot by baddies (JJJ covered this in his scum spew analysis).
- He has posted large graphs and charts with little analysis to accompany them. (A number of people have discussed this already.)

Things I personally don't like are his declining contributions the past Day period or two, and the fact that he keeps asking people to infodump. I'm given to understand that info is cool on RYM, but RadicalFuzz has said that Wilgy knows the rules here. He seems determined to stretch them to their limit.

I actually feel moderately positive on Wilgy now, despite the shade he's getting. I don't really see him as a super likely SK either, since he's taken enough hard stances (Choutas and bcornett) to get some negative attention.

Diiny wrote:Show me this motel room thang

I've only been talking about it for....holy shit, 4+ days now....but I'm so glad someone's finally interested that I'll oblige:

Russtifinko wrote:

motel room wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

motel room wrote:I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac.

motel room wrote:I actually feel like JJJ and Floyd will flip town.

Please esplain.

Which part? I wont be surprised if they were both town, but I'm not sold so hard as to defend them and they are both potential distractions now at this point and if not lynched now will probably ride on as lynch contenders until the end of the game is all.

To be more precise: esplain the part where you think JJJ will flip town, but you're happy to remove the doubt by lynching him. I recall Mac saying something very similar, I think about Sorsha. (Would quote, but have you seen that dude's post history?)

His response is below. (I decided against clipping, since I think the whole thing is relevant. Sorry for the big post.)

Russtifinko wrote:

motel room wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

motel room wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:To be more precise: esplain the part where you think JJJ will flip town, but you're happy to remove the doubt by lynching him. I recall Mac saying something very similar, I think about Sorsha. (Would quote, but have you seen that dude's post history?)

Nah you should quote it cos I don't like you dropping into the thread after no content and trying to drum up shit without context.

I'm not sure how I can further explain it. I think JJJ may be town and made the same mistaken judgement on mac as I did. I'm not confident enough to fight his lynch and can see benefit from him as a lynch contender being removed from further chatter. He has even said the same thing himself. Why is me thinking this so suspicious to you, specifically?

MacDougall wrote:I think we really have to lynch sorsha. I feel like it's the key to breaking the game open today. She either flips scum and leaves behind a tasty breadcrumb trail, or flips town and leaves behind a tasty breadcrumb trail. Trusting Golden again seems like a nice way to get another townie killed. We've got a scum dead inside the first four days in a large game. We can afford a tactical lynch. Sorsha is a good lynch candidate for up front scum play as well as being the best possible lynch from a tactical perspective. Short of someone saying "I am scum" my vote won't be changing today.

Fine. Found it. Not sure why you felt the need to have me do that. (It's near the top of page 9 of his post history, btw.)

This response is terrible imo. You're really debating the point that Mac expressed a willingness to vote Sorsha even if she was civ? It's right there in the thread! And then you say I'm "trying to drum up shit" when, again, Mac's point was well documented as a major point of suspicion that Day.

Finally, you double down on your "JJJ is civ, but we should still lynch him anyway" idea. It's this simple: lynching civs is NOT worth it. We're losing! Someone (Rico?) said we have 4 days to get at least one baddie, or game over. Wasting one of those days lynching someone you think is good should be repulsive to you. At least Mac made up some bullshit about wanting info! You don't even say we'd get anything out of JJJ being lynched. You want someone you say is civvie to die so that we can stop discussing him as a potential lynch candidate??? The POINT of the game is to discuss people as potential lynch candidates!

I am overreacting, or is this the least civ mindset all game? I'm down to vote motel room again, with Matt this time. I'm more sure about him than JJJ.

Great. Yes I knew what you were referring to, what I objected to was you coming in out of nowhere and pretending to be certain about something. Going and actually doing it now seems like busywork but ok do you see the difference between what I'm suggesting and what Mac was suggesting? Mac thinks lynching Sorsha will leave behind all these clues he's super eager to get into, I'm suggesting lynching JJJ crosses him off the list the end. No more bickering about whether he's scum or town or what because look it's happening again today "JJJ should still be on the table for a lynch", "what do we think about JJJ?" over and over.

I'm not debating anything about Mac's Sorsha thing, not sure why you think that.

"Pretending to be certain" about verifiable facts? I wasn't pretending, I was certain. I do see the difference, and Mac's reason is actually BETTER than your reason. Which is major point against you.

Ricochet wrote:Mac's "legacy" scumlist is still intact, save for sig. If he didn't add any fellow scumsters, it leaves JJJ, motel room and Fuzz.

What is everyone's gut read on Mac blending his teamies inside the list? Yay or nay.

Yay.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Day 6 was when Fuzz started asking players to read him scum. The timing of that is convenient, fwiw.

In the most technical sense this is true, but he actually was challenging other players on their town reads of him as early as Day 4 with JJJ.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I disagree in that it is automatically a savejob if Bullzeye is mafia. I got it wrong. That doesn't mean I am mafia, it just means I make mistakes.

For what it's worth, you did not make this observation in the Day 9 lynch, when Ricochet broke a tie and helped lynch a civilian sig. Almost the exact same scenario, just between RadicalFuzz and sig instead of Choutas and Bullzeye.

Regarding the second part of your post, good point. The difference for me is that I think motel room is likely bad, whereas I had a gut read on Fuzz as civ. However, you're correct that I may be unfairly giving Rico a pass. I'll put him high up on my To Read list.

More importantly to me, the first part: MM, this post was about motel room, not Bullzeye. I'm glad I got to this after today's result, though, because I think you confusing the two of them looks pretty weird given your votes the past 2 days.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Diiny wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Diiny wrote:Who are you voting, rico?

Tell me what you think of this radfuzz bullzeye thing too

Come lynch RadicalFuzz with me.

Is this to rico or me?

either way: why not bullzye; why not wilgy?

I don't agree with the case on DrWilgy.

I'm not opposed to lynching Bullzeye. He's my second option.

But you're asking Rico what he thinks of RadicalFuzz/Bullzeye. I want to know what you think.

Tinfoil Russti says: MM says he wasn't against a Bullzeye lynch, but still stopped a potential Bullzeye lynch yesterday in favor of Choutas and tried to change to a Fuzz lynch today. Based on the counts we have, if MM had somehow managed a CFD onto Fuzz today and Fuzz is good, civs cannot win this game. Baddies potentially could if they managed to drug and/or kill the SK, even if some or all of them got outed in the play. And speaking of motel room:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:When I say "removes one townie from the game" I refer to him being literal dead weight. If it's Lynch-or-Lose and one civilian isn't willing to cooperate, then that's just Lose. This is, assuming, that my benefit of the doubt that he's attempting to win is unfounded.

Lynching a townie in a potential LyLo scenario fixes exactly zero problems -- indeed it is the worst possible outcome.

You've just given a justification for lynching a townie i.e. Mac and Sorsha.

And motel room!

Ricochet wrote:Remember who proposed liability lynches and lynches for sake of info?

Mac

But also motel room!

Diiny wrote:I don't think that's fuzz's reasoning here. There's no info to be gained. I really don't understand fuzz's reasoning here.

But motel room did the same thing while not saying anything about gaining info from it!

Seriously, why am I the only person talking about the fact that motel room said lynching civs for literally no reason is ok?!?!?!?!?! This is getting extremely frustrating.

motel room wrote:woken up specifically on my day off for this.

"woken" up, as opposed to "woke"? Who woke you?

motel room wrote:I know there has been chatter about these since but yes eww these read as trying really hard to rationalise the appearance of your vote Fuzz.

And oh look, motel room throwing shade at Fuzz. Hmm...

Linki: Looks like he backed off the Fuzz shade.

Ok, I caught up. A minute after the deadline, which is fine because I'd have left my vote here anyway.

I have minor misgivings about Bullz's emotional plea at the end there, but the major point remains despite those: he had more than ample opportunities to contribute, and always always always found a reason not to do so. I think especially in a world where JJJ is going balls to the wall on scum spew analyses, being unwilling to provide reads looks bad. (This point, by the way, also makes me feel worse about Wilgy and Rico.)

Will now respond to things I saw on my read through.

Linki: Sweet! Sucks about not skipping the Night, but I'll take the result.

So I have 4 pages to read, apparently. Since we're getting close to the deadline, Bullz gets my stamp of approval for now.

Still hoping to catch up, read Wilgy, and read Diiny by the deadline, but it's a tall order, and as JJJ said, spreading votes could be deadly at this point in the game. So the most likely case is my vote stays on Bullz.

Super glad I reread RadicalFuzz. I remembered things I had forgotten, and came across some new stuff that I see as valuable too.

We'll start with this one. It's the original reason I started liking RF - he's not afraid to challenge town reads of himself, which I think in and of itself reflects a town-friendly mindset. He does this continually; I'll raise further examples that I think are valid as I see them. He did have an exchange on Day 4 where he challenged Floyd on his thread reading, and then backed off when Floyd cited real life issues as his reason for low participation. Im assuming this showed up in JJJ's spew analysis.

I also found this super interesting. RF and Wilgy agree that they read each other very well. I find this super important, given that they both look like viable lynches for today.
(For the record, bcornett replies that Wilgy's content looks too fluffy to him, and RF says that he doesn't have a problem with the fluffiness.) Anther example for challenging town reads of himself. To me this looks super genuine. Day 5, RF begins suspecting Wilgy based on this exchange. (Not spoilered because essential.)

RF proceeded to vote Wilgy on Days 6-8. He voted sig for self-preservation on Day 9, and then moved to Choutas for Day 10.

RadicalFuzz wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:I'm exempt from your lists? That's a nice way of saying that you're intending to push me later without being held accountable for an opinion now. Thanks for the response.

Lol, you got me!

No, the player you subbed for just missed votes, so I don't have the intel to properly judge your actions and interactions.

I've been here, voting and talking. You require more than that to reach some form of basic conclusion? Did you not make any initial conclusions on the other players until Day 3?

Again, challenges a civ read on him (by Bullzeye this time). He does a super in-depth ISO of Wilgy here: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 09#p186809, which I'm now disappointed I didn't pay more attention to at the time.

In the next two posts he expands on his case on Wilgy, and says the latter's responses are not helping.
Fuzz, if you're reading this, why did you want to case MM here, and what became of the situation? Pardon me for not seeing it for myself in the ISO, I was following different lines of thought and didn't pick this one up. Ok, to me this one is a big deal for a couple of reasons. One, he's again challenging town reads on him, and he says for the first time that he objectively looks horrible. It's the beginning of a trend of getting out in front of suspicion points on himself. To me it looks like a good thing that he's so self-aware, but I can understand how it could be read as a baddie being very careful.
A second big one, where he acknowledges a bunch of suspicious points against himself. Again, I can see why some wouldn't like it, but to me it looks good. The next two posts to me are really my only major ping points with Fuzz. It is disconcerting that they are so recent, but I do see them as lone points of scumminess in what's mostly townie-looking waters in his history.

RadicalFuzz wrote:It's not being nice, it's wanting to give him a chance to fail. My first game I was Mafia and made a comeback for the win. I have a large ego and enjoy it when other people fail things I succeeded at. It falls under "illogical" all the same. I'm curious though, are you going to vote me for it?

We all know Fuzz refused to vote Floyd despite genuinely believing he made a slip. I can sympathize with that, as I have a similar stance on acting on dumped info. (I won't do it.) This to me read as something else than what he was saying before, though. Not 100% sure this is an alignment-related thing as opposed to personality-related, but it rubs me the wrong way a bit.

And this to me is the worst-looking thing Fuzz has said all game (in response to JJJ's question about what makes us all look best):

RadicalFuzz wrote:The multiple players that have townread me for the majority, if not all, of their lifespans.

Fuzz, all game long, has been saying that people should be suspecting him, that they should not be town reading him, and that his play looks really really bad. I get that he doesn't feel his play has done a whole lot to make him look good, but it's just shocking to me that he'll say the thing he's been saying people should not do in regards to him now suddenly is a point in his favor. I already thought the post looked bad, but when taken in the context of his entire body of work it becomes almost unfathomable to me.


---------------------------------------------------------------
Tl;dr/conclusions: I like the majority of Fuzz's content. I can see why people wouldn't, and I'm afraid this read will be taken as too subjective, but I like what I see. You could say he's been tunnelly on Wilgy. I say he's been consistent with his suspicions. You could disagree with me on how to interpret his posts saying he should be suspected and getting out in front of points against him, but I like both. I also don't think the Floyd thing is particularly damning, although I'll concede it looks a bit worse after his most recent post about it. The final quote I posted is a major point of concern for me, since it goes directly against his stance on these things for most of the game. However, I'm not ready to lynch someone over a single post unless it is conclusive proof of badness.

I'm not for a Fuzz lynch today. I'd prefer Bullzeye at this point. I'd still like to read Diiny and now Wilgy before voting, but between this enormous post (I'm sorry) and fighting off my hangover, I am worn out.

For Wilgy: I haven't ISO'edyou yet, but I don't remember seeing much about Fuzz from you. You both stated at the beginning of the game that you can read each other very well. What has been your read of his play so far this game?

And for Fuzz: Why would you say people should suspect you, and then say that people NOT suspecting you is the thing that makes you look most civ in the game? What are your current thoughts on MM? And please remind me what motivated you to vote Choutas yesterday. Was it that you didn't think a Wilgy lynch would get traction and you wanted your vote to count, were you majorly pinged by Choutas, or was there something else?

And one miscellaneous, for Rico:

Ricochet wrote:Wilgy posted this begin of Day 6.

DrWilgy wrote:Mac, Matt, Fuzz and Floyd, who did you target last night?

We had a fail kill and no psycho killer. Chances are one of y'all intervined, possibly in both, and y'all should know how. JJJ you should know as well.

I will explain everything as soon as I'm back from the renaissance festival.

JJJ, no beef, got much love for ya.

Two of the people he inquired turned out mafia (with no powers to block or do shit...in theory, Mac could have redirected the SK's kill to the same unkillable target, but I wouldn't put my money on it; for one thing, he then started spewing on Epig being SK...and Epig was killed by the SK...), Matt is dead, only Fuzz is here.

He also says JJJ should know something about this very thing he is pointing at.

He's an SK candidate, so... Would this come off as an SK chatting in the open about whudunit or as genuine investigative stuff?

Rico, can you clarify what you mean here? It looked at the beginning of the post like you were going to conclude he looked scummy here, since he mentioned two now-confirmed scum. But at the bottom it looks like you're seeing this as evidence he's the SK, and I'm not seeing the link as to why.

PS - Sorry my second-last post up there got unwieldy. I didn't notice until I saw it in this one's linki just now.

For MM:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read. I know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

I wanted my vote to count, and I didn't want a tie happening. I think you can understand this perspective.

Yeah, for sure. I always want my vote to count as well, and I share your aversion to ties. Neither of those things ping me, but you did move a vote off the player I most suspect, and then a civ died. I'm just saying that if one of you turns up bad, then this immediately becomes a save job in my mind. I think you can understand that perspective, as well.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth

Of the living players implicated by that theory, who do you lean toward?

Jay, same question to you.

Same to everyone else.

If Epignosis's theory is correct that the PSK missed the Night 5 kill because of inactivity, which player do you think is most likely to be the PSK based on players who did not post that night.

The candidates are bcornett (NK'd by mafia last night), Diiny, DrWilgy, and motel room.

This post is about the SK, not mafia, right? I'd hope it's bcornett, but I think of the four, Diiny is most likely based on his somewhat noncommital content. That said, he's posted reads on Fuzz and Wilgy today, so he's looking a tiny bit better to me in that regard.

Stuff for JJJ:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hey everyone, let me show you a man with a serious interest in LyLo situations, and particularly my maneuvers in them. His name is RadicalFuzz:

Spoiler: show

RadicalFuzz wrote:J3, gun to your head LYLO, would you lynch me or motel room?

RadicalFuzz wrote:Sorry about that earlier J3, I forgot to add the actual statement. If you had to be stranded on the moon with three people from this game, which three would you take to avoid getting stabbed in the back?

RadicalFuzz wrote:J3 I'm aware you're out at the moment, but I want your opinion on something.

Ignoring the possibility of being lynched, what night phase do you think Wilgy will get killed?

Thanks for the clarification Bullzeye.

RadicalFuzz wrote:The reversed question also applies to Wilgy. Ignoring the possibility of J3 being lynched, what night phase do you think he will get killed?

RadicalFuzz wrote:Wilgy, if you had to vote between J3 and Rico, gun to your head LYLO, who would you choose?

RadicalFuzz wrote:J3, weird question, but could you tell me your cleanest 3 players? Excluding yourself, of course.

He could literally be grooming the thread for a specific LyLo arrangement. He already knows Doc would vote for me in that scenario, and he has an idea of what names I wouldn't vote for. He did say he had a reason for asking these "weird questions":

RadicalFuzz wrote:Wilgy I'm asking J3 many questions because he's both around to answer them and I want him to answer them incorrectly. To my dismay he hasn't yet responded illogically. And if that's your roundabout way of asking me whether I think J3 is town or not, the answer is complicated. I would vote for him in lieu of concrete evidence for anybody else, but my suspicion of him is still extremely circumstantial.

Fuzzy Bear: I don't believe you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think your final two or three mafia are in this group:

RadicalFuzz
Bullzeye
Russtifinko
DrWilgy*
Diiny*

*darkhorse picks

I have to get to sleep now. Today I think we should lynch Bullzeye or RadicalFuzz. Remember that close tallies are ripe for shenanigans. Don't let anyone's votes go unchallenged: they need to be thoroughly explained and supported by something in these 7,000 posts we've made. I hate to miss EOD, but I have no choice. Working day shift tomorrow.

JJJ, you were all about Fuzz for a while. I'm getting that you see your Wilgy analysis as super compelling, but has your opinion on Fuzz changed at all? If so, can you direct me to what post/analysis did that?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:it must be said, your townread of motel is the strongest I can recall since...well, your townread of Mac

I'm going to clarify because I think there's a problem of perception: motel room is not my strongest town read (and nor was Mac at any juncture). He is a town read, as was Mac, but I am less confident in calling him that than yourself for example. I think it appears to be a stronger read than it really is because it's at odds with what most other people seem to think -- just like my Mac read was.

I'd like to think I won't be completely wrong about a controversial town read twice in one game.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Everybody: can you share your tinfoil reads?

If you're not sure what I mean by that, I mean pick the player who you're most concerned is mafia because he will be a very difficult lynch and/or is a consensus town read?

For me: Ricochet.

Underlines added to highlight my point. By this definition, this is absolutely motel room. You say he's a low-hanging fruit, and that's just plain wrong. He's being defended by the two most vocal players in thread, you and Rico, he's off the poll today, and MM's vote move yesterday can be seen as a save of motel. (The more i think about it, the more it strikes me this way.) He has 3 of 9 living players, and arguably the three most influential ones, standing up for him. What about all that makes him low-hanging fruit? The fact that I've suspected him? I'm not even in your guys' league.

I think motel room actually is the hardest player in the game to lynch right now bar none, and he also happens to be the one I am most convinced is mafia.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:That's great Jay.

What have you deduced from this caveat? In your opinion, do you believe that situation I mentioned is my only saving grace as a civilian and that there is no other facet of my play that compares to that moment, which itself is already only a glass-half-full type of good anyway?

Do you not appreciate honesty?

I've deduced that you think your treatment of Mac on Day 6 should reflect well on you (applicable regardless of your alignment) and also that you grant that your effort to link Mac with me takes something away from that good look.

Because I'm town. And it's a bad link.

Honesty is great, but I think you may have puked a little more into that post than you meant to.

JJJ, I missed this discussion, and I'm confused as to why a push to link you and Mac is a bad look until you're confirmed town.

I do think the fact that MM granted your point there looks bad, because it implies that he does know with 100% certainty you're civ. But for those of us that don't, there's nothing inherently wrong with suspecting you, and I dispute your implicit claim here that there is.

It seems you backed off of MM after this, and again, I don't currently suspect you, but people are still allowed to suspect you, right?

Inb4 you say I'm trying to "discredit" you again: This point doesn't take anything at all away from the awesome analysis you're doing, or from my town read of you, and I don't think it should for others. I just think that we need to be aware of all possibilities, and we need to be able to discuss and express our ideas without reservation if we're going to get the baddies. I don't want anyone to stifle themselves or for any discussion to be quashed because someone is afraid that if they do say something about suspecting you, or even disagree with you, they'll immediately be labeled as bad. I actually believe you have that kind of power over the thread at this point, and I'm just asking that you be judicious in exercising it. One person not saying something they think could quite literally lose us this game. Plus I have a personal interest in this point, now: I've disagreed with you twice in this post alone, so please don't have me killed for it.

Linki: JJJ, thanks for linking to your questions. I couldn't find the other two in you history at first. As for who's low hanging fruit, I'd prefer to do my ISOs on Fuzz or Wilgy before responding. I think those two and Bullz are most likely to be lynched, and (again, pending ISOs), I think Bullz is most likely of the three to be bad.

As to what makes me look best: I'd like to say decisive votes in two mafia lynches. However, every aspect of my those votes has been dissected so thoroughly that I'm not even sure they're a point in my favor any more, and they certainly aren't a strong one. I've done a pretty bad job at looking civ this game, and I think it's why I'm still alive at this point. I imagine that's true for all of us to some extent since we're still here.

And thanks for posting an ETA on content from Bullz. I meant to ask about that in my last post. Do we have a Wilgy Content ETA as well?

Ok, very quick hits before I get into responding to things:

1) RIP Straw.
2) Thanks for the extra 24 hours, benevolent hosts!
3) Looks like I need to read Wilgy. Will do that after responses, if he doesn't have a million bajillion posts. I have also been planning on rereading Fuzz and haven't done it yet. I know he has a lot of content, but I'll skim at the very least.

Also, looks like both Bullz and Wilgy are putting off producing requested content? Wilgy at least seems to have specific real life things do to, but still not a terrific look. Bullz just seems a bit overwhelmed by the game, which is understandable from a real life perspective but looks very bad from a mafia game perspective, when one of the major points against him is that he isn't producing valuable content.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Note that despite extending this Day phase to 72 hours, I am not extending any nonparticipation standards.

Anyone who fails the nonparticipation standards is still eligible to be modkilled, in addition to those who break the rules. However, as expressed last Day period, I will no longer be modkilling players by request.

If you know you have obligations and are afraid you're going to mess up any of the nonparticipation standards, as always, you must PM me and Sloonei to avoid my wrath.

Happy Halloween!

Saw this as I'm reading to catch up...idk how long it's been, but just in case, I am here!

I'll only be around in a limited capacity until Sunday. My sister and a childhood friend are in to visit me for Halloween! I apologize for taking any time out so late in the game, but I only get to see them a few times a year so that takes priority for me. I'll try to at least stay read up on my phone, so I can be back to full-blown posting after they leave Sunday.

I should've thought to say this before, but do others have Halloween plans as well? I would be totally fine with MP extending either N10 or D11 if others are busy too.

RIP Choutas.

Rico, I'm in a similar state to yours. I really thought Choutas would flip bad based on what he was saying at EOD. And every single player has major points for and against them now, LC voters probably more than most.

To me it's looking increasingly likely that baddies just distributed their votes elsewhere on D2. That seems the smarter move, because with the final tally what it was, 3 additional baddies would've had to vote bcornett for it not be revealed that LC was Flowers. That is a lot of baddies to all be voting together that early in the game, and they probably figured the risk was too big.

JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read. I know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

Reading Rico's post does convince me that Bullz and Fuzz (and all non-bcornett or LC voters from D2) are worth a closer look.

motel room wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:convince me why he's a better case than motel.

motel room

What's your case on me again there pal? That I was ok with a lynch of jjj but that I said he was probably town?

Now that you think its obvious that jjj is town and the suspicion on him has passed for now, have I tried to have him lynched or done anything to suggest that what I said back then was just exactly what I was thinking? Explain it from a scum angle please.

Yeah, easy way to push for a JJJ lynch without seeming to do so. He's clearly a major threat to the baddies, and he was close enough to dying that a comment like yours could easily have swung it if anyone had agreed with you. And then when it blew over it was easy for you to back off. Not sure what's hard to see about this.

Choutas, I'm not buying your defense at all. You're giving up, but throwing out names to see what sticks. Your case on me is I'm Bullz's teammate because I forgot to place my vote after declaring it. If you honestly think I'm bad and want to do something worthwhile with your time, build a case on me to convince people. You're not doing that, and it makes me feel better about where the poll is. You, Bullz, and motel all look terrible to me right now.

I'm off to bed.

Linki: haha Choutas, you are either the world's worst or best predictor of votes, I'm not sure which. Bullzeye is from England, so it's 4am where he is. You're right that he's unlikely to vote you right now, he probably forgot to place it.

Hey wait, MM, did you move your vote?

motel room wrote:It's 3-3-3 on Bullzeye, Choutas and I (assuming Russ follows through on that vote he reckons he cast), I wonder what happens in the next couple hours.

Oh crap, thanks!

Choutas wrote:Bullz will tell Russ to stay low and vote for MM. Bullz will wait until the last minute to put the final vote. Seriously watch it unfold. I'm leaving. My work here is done. Nice game everyone.

You caught us; good sleuthing. Reeeeeeally tough to figure out that I'm going to vote motel room, whom I've voted the past 2 days and already posted that I intended to vote today. Just forgot to actually put it up. And yes, it's likely Bullz won't vote for himself, that being against the rules and all.

I don't see a potential civ motivation in that post. If Choutas is bad, he just fed us all a WIFOM-burger, and if he's civ he made the world's worst case: 1) Say obvious things that will happen. 2) Say those things make me and Bullz bad, when in my case they don't in the slightest. Choutas, you could be right on Bullz, but the better play here would be going hard after someone you really think is bad for TODAY, not setting up tomorrow's result in advance. If you want my vote on Bullz, convince me why he's a better case than motel.

motel room

Everyone left?

Well I'm voting motel room.

I'll try to read Choutas and Fuzz tonight, but I realized the lynch ends at midnight and not 8:30, and my eyes are glazing over at the moment, so it is break time.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Home early tonight.

Going to bed early tonight too, gonna miss the deadline.

Rico and MM: I appreciate you both for trudging through my post history. Whatever the product you come up with, and whatever the read you arrive at, I recognize the immensity of the task and I apologize for making it seem necessary.

Rico: in your analysis, I think you have done nicely to review the evidence against me (and I acknowledge that it exists in a significant quantity) with one eye on the potential baddie motives and another on the townie motives. I can understand why you'd get through all of that and still feel torn. I'm going to try to resonate with you now on a personal level, in a way that we two players in this game can share and understand better than our peers by virtue of common ground:

There is substantive evidence against Ricochet too. You might not like all of it, but it's there and I do think Matt F did a nice job of compiling it in a way that isn't beyond rationality. Do I suspect you a great deal?

No.

Because the evidence doesn't tell the whole story of Ricochet in this game, RYM Mafia #90/The Syndicate Talking Heads Mafia/Crossover special. I have absolutely given myself up to this game -- I belong to it, and to all of you. An incredible portion of my time has been lost to this very thread. Of all the players still with me, only one other person has come close to doing the same: you. That's no slight on the rest of the players, I think all of you have given a strong effort and I love that. But Rico has given an immense effort. If Rico is mafia, then this is the strongest effort I've ever seen in a mafia player.

And I have 1,009 posts. My ISO is a textbook.

I'm going to be frank here: none of you have ever seen a bad guy play like I have played this game. You just haven't. When this game is over, you still haven't. I haven't either.

One day I will be mafia, and people are going to associate this game with my meta. And I am going to fall short of it. Because it's beyond me.

Your posts at this point read like love poems to the game. I can't decide if it's cheesy or epic and humbling.

Linki: Whoa, relax man! It was a joke. Should'vesarc'ed the second sentence, I guess. Are we not allowed to have fun now that you've posted 1,000 times?

And I wasn't and have never attempted to discredit you. You're tinfoiling me hard on this stuff. You also said something a few days ago about me trusting your Mac read so I could throw you under the bus later on. I had a damn good opening to on Day 7 if I wanted to, but it never happened.

I think it's obvious to everyone here just based on your effort that you're a civ, and you're playing one of the most impressive games ever. Anyway, regarding Bullz, yes, I think your/my/basically everyone's, at this point, point is valid. I don't think everyone saying they've experienced burnout this game can be bad: Choutas, MM, Straw? I've had some burnout too, these past few days. But I agree that of those, Bullz looks the worst for not having contributed as much original. *engages JJJ on relevant things*

I still think motel room is a better lynch candidate, because I suspect him on something he has said versus something he hasn't. I'm happy to engage you in a talk regarding him, but iirc you have him as a top 2 town read.

I was also hoping to do a couple more readthroughs today, but after having caught up I'm short on time.

RadicalFuzz wrote:Diiny J3 still wants me lynched. This time he's specified the reason down just the Floyd interaction. As an aside, J3, you don't know how funny it is that you're crediting all of these "great townie mindsets" to a supposedly scum Fuzz. My scum game is pretty poor. Just got a chuckle out of that.

J3, weird question, but could you tell me your cleanest 3 players? Excluding yourself, of course.

Wilgy voted to break my tie and save me, so from a purely personal perspective I almost have to believe he's civilian at this point.

If the other person on that tie had been a baddie, I'd agree with you 100%, Fuzz. But I think it's very dangerous for you to assume someone is a civ just because they saved you, when the day's lynch resulted in another civ dying.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I've been thinking something about recent Bullzeye content: he's been responsive, but not productive. By that I mean he has made the effort necessary to address points about him and in some cases about general discussion -- but it's been a while since he has produced something truly original in this game.

I said this already. If only you read as much as you wrote...

Linki: He's been asking tons of questions, but making very few statements. I get the same vibe as Bullz from him, that he's trying not to leave tracks, although his quantity is clearly higher than Bullz's. Add that to the fact that he clearly doesn't remember Day 7 despite playing a major part in it, and I don't think it's a good look at all.

Diiny wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Linki: Diiny, which shenanigans? Info dumps? I'm always against them, categorically. When info dumps have happened in previous games, I've decided to play as closely as I could to pretending they never happened. (See Mikhail Rasputin in the X-Men game for an example of me doing that and people hating it. Luckily I was immune to lynches!)

Did you see my post asking you for your current suspicions? Any definitive ideas on specific players?

I mean, when it happened this game. Do you think choutas's belief of seaside's scumminess, apparently due to infodumpy factors, is legitimate? Or is he scum playing a ruse? Because as far as I'm aware those are the only two possibilities his ph allows

I answered the other thing

Again, I ignore info dumps, so I'm not going to have an opinion on this ever. However,

Choutas believed seaside WASN'T scummy. Someone corrected you on this earlier and you're still reading it wrong. You were the second-last person to vote seaside that Day, so you were around when all of this was happening. You even called yourself an idiot for getting it wrong last time.

And you SAY you answered the other thing, but I've read through your recent posts, and it's been a very long time since I've seen anything I would conclude is a suspicion. You apparently expect Fuzz since you voted him, but outside of that you've asked a lot of questions and not generated a lot of content.

Does this weird anyone else out in a bad way, or just me? Cuz Diiny has shot up to near motel room status on my reads with his play the past couple days.

Oh! But before I go, a strangely (I think, anyway) noncommittal thing from Bullz:

Matt F wrote:Bullz is here! Bullz, look at my case on Rico. A lot different then my "wild theories", am I right?

Bullzeye wrote:

Matt F wrote:

Bullzeye wrote:It certainly isn't wild. Or crazy. Some of it is even reasonable. I dunno how I feel about it personally though, I like and dislike it. I would have to think on it more to reach a satisfactory conclusion.

You're killin' me smalls.

Well, I mean, I know Crazy Matt very well. Sane Matt I'm not as familiar with. The fact I think your case isn't Crazy must mean something right? I expected you'd be happy that I don't think you're insane for a change.

So I think he doesn't want to offer tons of opinions so he can't be held to task for them later. Doesn't speak super well in my book.

Dear God, I have (again) spent far too much of my evening on this game. I am out for the night, and will be back tomorrow to do more reads, catch up, and vote.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Finally home. I'm going to jump right back into my project here, but if y'all have pressing concerns for me just stick 'em in my face and I'll try to maintain dialogue as a I go. My focus will be on ISOmania though.

Wait, JJJ is going to post MORE of those enormous cases?? Lord ha' mercy.

So, my reread of Bullz:

He's a hard guy to get a read on, and that's largely because he's interacted with very few players during the game. He basically votes me as a default option ever since he joined, based on a case FZ. made on Day 2. He hasn't really added anything to his suspicion of me since. He started out thinking Sorsha was bad, but came around to thinking she was good and ended up defending her by voting Devin (though he never expressed an opinion about Devin). He was accused of trying to discredit Golden, but insisted that he was only disagreeing with him. He did talk with Matt F and JJJ some, and in the past 2 days he's been interacting more with people because a number of cases have come out against him.

So not counting responses to recent cases, I count what I'd consider significant interactions with 5 players. (Of course that is subjective.) Reading through his content, it feel like, even more than Choutas, he's content to develop a read and then stick to it, without seeming to really update much. To be fair, he has posted a number of times about being super duper busy, which I sympathize with. To me his behavior looks potentially SK-ish, because he doesn't put a huge amount of effort into developing reads. (Not trying to say this in a mean way at all. I feel a little bad about how I worded my thoughts on his baddie play style yesterday. Again, Bullz, I mean no insult at all, yesterday or today, and I always love playing with you, sincerely. I just perceive you as scum hunting to a lesser degree than most this game, and think it might be indicative of a role that doesn't care who is or isn't scum.)

Linki: Diiny, which shenanigans? Info dumps? I'm always against them, categorically. When info dumps have happened in previous games, I've decided to play as closely as I could to pretending they never happened. (See Mikhail Rasputin in the X-Men game for an example of me doing that and people hating it. Luckily I was immune to lynches!)

Did you see my post asking you for your current suspicions? Any definitive ideas on specific players?

Diiny wrote:Fuzz is only looking worse after the sig result, probably my scummiest read. I'm also looking at rico as hard as I can without ruining my quality of life significantly. Still looking at straw pretty hard, too, my tinfoil companion is enjoying itself there.

Choutas is difficult as fuck for me, becuase I really don't know how to feel about his infodumping thing. But as I was typing this, something occured to me: it would be really, really easy for scum to fake knowing that someone was town because of infodumping because scum know exactly who scum is by default, sans the possibility of sk-ness. I really want to ask more about the infodumping lark but I don't want to get modkilled. How far can I go?

I think MP said to PM him if you're ever not sure. I obviously can't speak for him, but the rule of thumb I use is: If it's game related, and it is something I know or was presented to me as fact (like those role checks that can be wrong), then I don't reference it or even reference the fact that I know it in thread. I know others are a little looser about this, but I'm a hardliner against info dumping so I've never pushed it.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
--- Russtifinko ---

I don't have anything against voting early. But in Choutas's case, he's placed his vote early consistently, and left it the rest of the day. It looks like he has his mind made up going into the day phase that he wants to vote so-and-so, but never strays. If something else comes up during a day phase, he doesn't act on it, with the one exception I pointed out.

And I understand he lives in Europe. But these are 48 hour day phases, and he consistently votes early in the first 24 hours. The one time he did change his vote recently, he did it within an hour of the deadline.


But my suggestions disagrees with the idea that Strawhenge would have information on me. So I'm asking what everyone else thinks and why he still managed to convince three players to follow his vote on Day 8. I already have an idea in mind, but I'm still going to ask.

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:b) Long Con, as others had stated, has an incredibly complex game that he is hosting right now that he needs to look after. Also, his plan on Day 1 appeared to backfire. So going into Day 2, he had plenty of reason to want out of this game, and for other people to want his head. Still, it's a bit hypothetical, and we've already seen that 3 of his 8 voters are not mafia. On the other hand, let's take a look at the numbers. There were 30 players alive at the time of his lynch, and 11 alive now (36.6 %). There were 8 players that voted in the Long Con lynch, and 5 of them are still alive now (62.5 %). I'd argue that offers a decent likelihood that there is at least one mafia on the Long Con lynch with there being such a drastic difference in survival percentages.

c) MacDougall was a very vocal, and also a well-vouched for player in the thread. His lynch was extremely close, and he had several vocal supporters in his defense, and he's a damn good mafia player. If he was bussed, it certainly wasn't planned, and is more likely to have been a late attempt. Let's look at numbers here too. 21 players were alive when MacDougall was lynched, and 11 are alive now (52.4 %). 7 players voted for Mac on his lynch, and 4 are still alive (57.1 %). Those numbers are significantly closer together, and suggest that MacDougall was not bussed.[/list]

Science!

So has anyone done or seen an analysis of survival rates among a player's voters before? This is totally new to me.

The idea appeals, since baddies have an NK. If they bus a teammate, they can't kill themselves, so statistically they're less likely to die than everyone else (although that's somewhat mitigated with an SK in the game). Is there actually an effect we can observe where bussed baddies' voters have a higher survival rate than non-bussed ones'? Or could this also be attributable to early game vs. late game or some other factor.

--- Russtifinko ---

I've never seen nor heard of this sort of number-crunching before. It just occured to me that there were a lot of players left that voted Long Con on Day 2, and so I just decided to compare numbers.

Feedback is very welcome to this idea.

Also, Bullzeye is not actually sanmateo. He just replaced him in this game, so Bullzeye from RYM for the sake of this game.

Thanks MM. I understand your point about Choutas a lot better now. I agree with you that refusing to change your mind during the course of days is at best a suboptimal way to play as a civ.

You confirmed that you were thinking what I thought you were on Straw. Without any evidence to the contrary, I'm inclined to agree with you. I don't see how he could know if he's the role I suspect. The Bullzeye thing also makes WAY more sense after your explanation, and after reading Bullz's posts.

As for the LC analysis, it pains me to say it since I voted LC, but I find the point compelling. His voters are probably worth looking harder into.

I'd love to look back at past games to see if this applies generally, but I'm already spending 2-3 hours a day just doing what I'm doing in this game, so it ain't happening.