The Syndicate

MP, thanks for hosting such a terrific game! It was probably the game I've been most absorbed in so far. I was absolutely devastated to lose. It was really disappointing to survive so long on a hamstrung team with no plasmids, switch to a dominant team, and then die in such a short span. I really thought we would be invincible, too, especially with my alliance with Devin.

I can't believe there was no side effect to using plasmids! Everyone seemed so scared of you and of them that I just assumed all of your past games had side effects for using items and that they were right to be scared. What was that Dollar-Enemy Guide you posted about? I never heard about it.

Snow Dog wrote:

Nevinera wrote:I'm sorry I stole Epi from you, Snow :-\
But when he forwarded the team switch to you guys accidentally, I can't believe you believed his line :-)
He must be a fast talker :-P

We truly dropped the ball there. I think we wanted to believe Epi was still with us more than anything. We never really dwelt on that mistake. We didn't realise it was a mistake. We were foolish and paid a huge price in the night of the long knives.

Wait, so you guys got a PM from Epi saying he wasn't on your team anymore, and then still believed he was on your team and didn't say anything to me???? I'm totally flabbergasted! How long before I showed up did this happen? And how did you not decide to kill him? Or Nev for that matter?

Bea, as I said I felt absolutely terrible about getting you killed. I was actually really mad that MP subbed you in 1 day before I was going to switch; I'd have had no problem killing an absent Ajira but hated doing that to you. You were kind of killed by game theory. I just didn't even consider the possibility that you wouldn't try to kill me, because I thought you'd still be playing to win since your power was so good, instead of helping people who kept you alive. In hindsight, if I could do it again I'd have asked you to work with us somehow and tried to keep you alive, but we had such a short time with BTSC and by that point I was pretty much already focused on how to help my new team.

I couldn't have totally saved you, though. By the time you subbed in I had already agreed with Dev and his dancers to vote off Ajira, and I had no way of contacting them to change plans because our BTSC was over. So you were guaranteed 3+ votes by the time you had even joined the game.

On the other hand, maybe it was best I got you killed off, seeing this quote.

bea wrote: Even as my baddie 2.0 self, I really did want one of ryan's LMS people to win. I mean - if my new team was going to dump me pretty much as soon as they found me - going out - I was going to help the team I spent the most time with.

I thought this quote was funny.

Nevinera wrote: At that point, knowing who the baddies all were (including Devin and Daisy) did me very little good directly, so I started trying to turn information into authority - next time I try to do that I'll be more circumspect and less info-dump-ey of course. Anyway, it apparently worked sufficiently well to keep me off the lynch docket through the end of the game.

Congrats on your win, Nev. You played a hell of a game. I was a little mad to see you won because you killed all of us off, but you deserved it.

Devin the Omniscient wrote: I can't believe my last guess worked!! You disciples were elusive bastards!

Great game everyone!!! I thoroughly enjoyed playing Sander Cohen!!! I was extremely excited to hear that the randomiser gave me that character because I share MPs love for his insane personality. I also had a ton of fun using my Sander Cohen persona to speak to Jack (Russtifinko) in Fort Frolic (Thanks for playing along Russti!).

I really must apologize to Hedgeowl, though. Had I caught your code to lynch NEv I probably would have done so. But it seems to have worked out better for me this way. I was not at all looking for you or Epi to be Guardians, especially after everyone I had thought to be Guardians and Jack died in that chaotic night. By the way INH that was me who incinerated you, so, sorry

Spacedaisy wrote:Also, sorry to the Guardians, we actually had every intention of lending you our voting support, but Rusti died so quickly, and the code was apparently too subtle since we missed it when a hedge used it until she made it super blatant and by then it was too late. I doubt you guys trusted us after that, but we were not double crossing you we were just clueless, lol.

Linki: Mata, you played that really well. I could not figure out why you were ot getting that I was saying you were able to win with us, lol. When you flipped everything clicked, I can't blame you for trying so hard to get Devin lynched. He still had two protects though, so even if he had won the lynch that day instead of you (which came down to a coin flip in fact), he would not have died. I was impressed when I saw who you were, that was an excellent play on your part.

Devin and Spacedaisy, I was really glad to see you both won too! You also played great games. My BTSC with you was by far the most fun I've had mafia-ing in my short career, Dev. Unfortunately I thought our code for listing my teammates would have been too clunky in practice. If we had guessed right on some of them I could have listed the others, but our guesses in BTSC were way off. I couldn't think of a way to name all 5 of my teammates in my first post after switching without making it super obivous. Especially since I hadn't mentioned some of them before and some were under almost no suspicion.

I was really disappointed the code for killing NEv failed. I was worried you wouldn't catch it, since I figured you were only looking at my posts for the code, but I was still hoping.

Thanks again for hosting, MP! It was an absolute blast. I was psyched to see I had gotten Jack, and it turned out to be even more awesome than I originally imagined.

Oh the humanity! I thought I was doing so well this game, too.

There seems to be no crying emoticon....

Wow, great job team! Really glad we finally got our second baddie. With any luck a few more will go down tonight too!

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Hedgeowl wrote:I think this is just a distinction I am missing being newish to this. Is it last player standing (as in they have killed everyone) or specifically just have killed all the other bots and splicers and the civs or baddies are still alive?

No worries. Last Man Standing roles are generally what the name would imply; they have to outlive/kill everyone. Last player alive. These Splicer/Bot roles (NOT Cohen's Splicers) are all now the same, completely rogue and on their own.

Holy crap!

I thought the Bots and Splicers just had to be the last Bot/Splicer standing! So they're all serial killers now?? This is even worse than I thought.

I'm torn on this lynch, and unfortunately I have to vote now before I go to afternoon classes. INH is insanified, and I always feel bad lynching someone who can't defend. Bea seems like she's trying to be helpful and also seems to be role hinting, though I don't get exactly what she's hinting at.

I think they're both good candidates, but I'm going to go with INH this lynch, because his pre-insanification posts didn't add much to the discussion, and I think bea is at least trying in that regard. Very curious to see how this lynch unfolds.

Flyin' High wrote:Phew what a catch-up!

So first, RIP Bea 1.0, Dex, and DH and RIPIYWG Indi and Mongoose. WBIYAG Mongoose. And welcome to the game Kate and welcome back to the game Bea 2.0. (I hope I didn't forget anyone! )

I like Bullzeye's case against INH. The moderately contradictory statements coupled with calling Bullzeye a "her" and saying he thinks Bullz is being coached is strange to me considering that Bullzeye has been around for years and I'm sure they've played games together before this one (though I'd need to go back through old games to confirm this).

One thing I don't recall seeing mentioned at all during the days I was missing was discussion of Boomslang and his misleading post on the possibilities for civvie BTSC. Now, I guess since Boats flipped civvie that kind of fell to the wayside, but regardless that post of Boomslang's is something that is still on my mind.

I also think indi might be onto something with regards to Beajira. My gut told me that Bea 1.0 was sincere in her defense and the change in terminology from "we" to "you" does quirk my brow a bit.

I feel like with the huge change of all of the civvie splicers now being rogue and Jack changing teams there will be a ton more to absorb and mull over. I definitely need to go back through the roles again to wrap my brain around things.

Also, my hand slipped and I voted for myself. Oops!

I thought this post contains some nice points. Along with the recent points made on INH, it makes me very concerned about him. I hope we can take a good look at Boomslang as well. And at bea (though people seem to be doing that already). Kate made a good point that just because someone believed indi to be bad doesn't mean she is.

Wow, I'm kind of reeling from all this.

Well I think it's pretty clear that a civ killed indi from the post, so someone obviously believed she was bad. It seems nearly impossible to me that they could have been on the same team. If they were, why would indi try to get a brand new teammate killed right after they arrived, especially if they were replacing a deadbeat?

My reread of INH is long overdue, it seems. And I'd still love for Dom to elaborate on his suspicions.

Holy shit is right.

Dom wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Mongoose wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:RIP Dex I'm sorry I was so wrong about you. I wish you had helped us even just a tiny bit...

What do you think of the other things that have been happening in the thread, such as bea/indiglo and the discussions around Dom and INH?

There is definitely something afoot with at least one of those situations, Russti!

The question is, which one? Dom has pinged me before, I think, but I'd have to read back to remember exactly what he said. No doubt INH is acting weird, but that may be normal for him. And a Freudian slip is in large part what got BWT lynched on back on Day 2, so if bea really made 2 there it may be worth following. On the other hand, if she is good it looks pretty clear that indiglo isn't, pushing so hard for her.

I pinged you when I said we should lynch Bullz over Bea a few days ago... if I recall correctly you said you weren't suspicious of me because Bea turned civ. .

and you think that just because indiglo pushes for Bea, if Bea is good, Indi must be bad?
That's pretty crap logic.

Oh, right. That's what it was. Thanks for the reminder.

I never claimed to be using logic about bea/indi. I you're absolutely right that indi could be wrong twice about the same person. I just think that without some kind of certainty that the player you're accusing is not on your team, most people would hesitate to go after the same player twice in a row. I know I would, anyway. And indi has been extremely vociferous this time. So I very much doubt they're the same alignment.

I don't expect you, Nev, or Epi to agree, since you follow only logical arguments, but it's running through my mind so I thought I'd share for others' sake.

Mongoose wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:RIP Dex I'm sorry I was so wrong about you. I wish you had helped us even just a tiny bit...

What do you think of the other things that have been happening in the thread, such as bea/indiglo and the discussions around Dom and INH?

There is definitely something afoot with at least one of those situations, Russti!

The question is, which one? Dom has pinged me before, I think, but I'd have to read back to remember exactly what he said. No doubt INH is acting weird, but that may be normal for him. And a Freudian slip is in large part what got BWT lynched on back on Day 2, so if bea really made 2 there it may be worth following. On the other hand, if she is good it looks pretty clear that indiglo isn't, pushing so hard for her.

RIP Dex I'm sorry I was so wrong about you. I wish you had helped us even just a tiny bit...

Epi, to answer your query I still don't think the case against Bullz is sound. We've been lynching 'B' players and Aces voters for days without any success, and I think continuing to try it is a poor strategy at this point. What do you think of the other things that have been happening in the thread, such as bea/indiglo and the discussions around Dom and INH?

Ok, well I'm going with Dex for today. I've been saying for days that he should be lynched, and now it looks like we may have the votes to make it happen. Again, I cite general unhelpfulness, no indications of civvieness, and the possible vote manipulation from yesterday.

I will have a very close eye on both bea and indiglo for the next few days. I can buy that bea saying "I was civ" did not mean "I'm not any more". It does also seem weird that indiglo has been after bea in both her roles, especially after being wrong on her once. However, the quote below still gives me pause:

bea wrote: I do really think that focusing on us new replacements leaves many unturned things in this game. i agree with dex in only this one thing. The baddies have been VERY good at distracting all of you from where we should go.

I'm just not sure if this is a general comment about our poor baddie-lynching record to date, or whether it means she knows who the baddies are and it was people who aren't drawing suspicion.

I actually also forgot DFaraday was playing, Dom. And Ajira for that matter, so glad bea is in! It makes me wonder why DFaraday wasn't replaced when others were. I'll have to check his votes, but is it possible he's been watching/playing without posting anything?

And welcome Kate! Glad to have someone in for G.O.B., and very glad it's you!

Linki: Whoa. I hadn't noticed that on first glance, but it looks very much like a baddie slip to me. I wonder if she has some kind of explanation?

Nevinera wrote:

Russtifinko wrote: I don't think it is an absurd claim at all, and I think the "little detail" you referred to is called a vote manipulation in common parlance. In every mafia game I've ever played, immunity to lynching means that if you finish the poll with the most votes, nothing happens. I've never ever seen lynch immunity mean that the person with the second-most votes dies. However, MP may run his games differently, so I might as well ask:

MP, if a lynch-immune role finishes a poll with the most votes, does the second-highest vote-getter die in their place?

That was the mechanic used in Thomas I believe.
I assumed it was standard, but if not, my mistake.

Russtifinko wrote: If we can eliminate that option, (and you yourself admitted that manipulation is far more likely), then there are 2 baddie roles with extra votes (the Little Sisters) and 2 indies that affect votes. (One adds and one subtracts from another player's vote, I believe.) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have seen no civvie role that has any type of vote manipulation power in this game.

The little sisters might have extra votes, or they might have *no* votes. If the little sisters have extra votes, and they voted for Bea instead of Dex, it does *not* imply that dex is bad, only that bea is not on that particular baddie team. Since we *know* that, I'm not sure why it would be relevant at all.

Not only do vote manipulation powers not imply that the person being not-lynched is bad, these particular ones are not easy to control.
Take a look at the houdini splicer powers, please. Note that they do not get to target some person to be voted against or not,
they pick other players, and the votes those players make are the relevant thing.
Since you can't double-target, splicer #2 can't even target his teammates every time,
which means that their impact is extremely unpredictable.
Since they are targeted the night before the vote, they can't realistically be said to be saving a teammate or anything.

Russtifinko wrote: As for hidden events affecting the outcome, as they are hidden I had no way of knowing about them. I'll look at vote records to see where your +3 could have come from, as my first thought is that it may have been a punishment, and compare your record to bea's to see if she could have been similarly punished.

Not a punishment.
It might not be obvious to you that there are specific hidden events that punish players by giving them extra votes against them..
but since every game I've participated in so far has used that mechanic, it seems a little unlikely that it would not occur to a veteran like you at all.

Russtifinko wrote: If bea was punished or otherwise got +3 yesterday then maybe it's worth looking at someone besides Dex today, but if not it seems pretty clear to me that he's not civ-aligned.

Now my question for you: why label my post an "absurd claim" when it's inherently logical based on the information I have, and then cast suspicion on me by saying I "seem certain" (the implication clearly being I know something a civ wouldn't know) when I only deduced what I could from recent events? Did I strike a little too close to home by going after Dex?

I care about logic, it's how I play the game; your post was *far* from 'inherently logical'.
The main flaw in your logic is that being saved by a non-civ does not imply that one is not a civ.
Not even a little bit, since two of those powers cannot be used defensively without precognition,
and the other two will be in play whether they want them to be or not.
Trying to make logical conclusions from only that data is pointless.

I actually think you *are* a civ for reasons that it's not safe to share, and I was trying to ask you if you had some hidden info that gives you your certainty -
there are a number of ways that you might have such information without being bad.

Now, if you want to vote for Dex based solely on your 'logic', I'm fine with that.
If I had no objective reasons to vote for anyone else, I'd probably pick him as the least useful person that I don't know is civ and vote for him too.

Well, you make some good points here. I guess we know the lynch didn't switch because Dex was an unlynchable role. I've actually never been punished by having votes added, but I'm kind of a goodie two shoes. I'm flattered to be called a veteran, by the way, so thanks. You are right that the indie Splicer powers we've been discussing could be hard to plan, as they're not in their owners' direct control, and you're also right that being saved by non-civs does not mean someone is non-civ.

I didn't have any secret knowledge about the mechanics of the previous lynch, to answer your question directly. I'm still considering a Dex vote today, because as you mentioned he's the least useful person I'm not sure is civ.

I also think that the discussion about INH is very interesting, and I want to look back at his votes the past couple of days. Thanks to indiglo for that analysis, and the one about the low posters. I'll have to read back on the rest of them because there is so little to go on.

I also hope that Spaghetti finishes his post-vacation reread soon, especially since he is one of the low posters, and that DH comes back soon. Does anyone know when his vacation ends? I would imagine today, but I'll read his posts by tomorrow and see if he said.

Nevinera wrote:

Russtifinko wrote: Personally, I think we should try to lynch Dex with as big a majority as possible, especially given the manipulation that occurred yesterday. Looking through the roles, there's no civ way he could have survived that.

That's an absurd claim - the vote was almost tied, so any little detail could swing it across.

There are three roles that could be lynch-immune; one civ, one bad, one Indy.
But far more likely is that there was some vote-manipulation underway:
The little sisters have a nonstandard size vote, and there are two slicers that can change how effective someone else's vote was.
There are also hidden events that provide initial votes - I started the previous poll with +3 for example for undisclosable reasons.

None of that suggests a particular team for dex. Why do you seem so certain?

I don't think it is an absurd claim at all, and I think the "little detail" you referred to is called a vote manipulation in common parlance. In every mafia game I've ever played, immunity to lynching means that if you finish the poll with the most votes, nothing happens. I've never ever seen lynch immunity mean that the person with the second-most votes dies. However, MP may run his games differently, so I might as well ask:

MP, if a lynch-immune role finishes a poll with the most votes, does the second-highest vote-getter die in their place?

If we can eliminate that option, (and you yourself admitted that manipulation is far more likely), then there are 2 baddie roles with extra votes (the Little Sisters) and 2 indies that affect votes. (One adds and one subtracts from another player's vote, I believe.) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have seen no civvie role that has any type of vote manipulation power in this game.

As for hidden events affecting the outcome, as they are hidden I had no way of knowing about them. I'll look at vote records to see where your +3 could have come from, as my first thought is that it may have been a punishment, and compare your record to bea's to see if she could have been similarly punished.

If bea was punished or otherwise got +3 yesterday then maybe it's worth looking at someone besides Dex today, but if not it seems pretty clear to me that he's not civ-aligned.

Now my question for you: why label my post an "absurd claim" when it's inherently logical based on the information I have, and then cast suspicion on me by saying I "seem certain" (the implication clearly being I know something a civ wouldn't know) when I only deduced what I could from recent events? Did I strike a little too close to home by going after Dex?

Linki: Mata, G.O.B. didn't post about being on vacation. I know him in rl and knew he was in Florida because he couldn't play in a volleyball game.

Ok, so I finally get the whole "public penance" thing.

Personally, I think we should try to lynch Dex with as big a majority as possible, especially given the manipulation that occurred yesterday. Looking through the roles, there's no civ way he could have survived that.

G.O.B. is still on my radar, but very far behind Dex. I know he was in Florida for the past week, which explains his lack of vote in the resurrection poll, but his actions prior to that were still pretty suspicious to me.

Wow, this just gets weirder and weirder. DH, the resurrection poll was over! And you're not dead anyway! Why would you vote for yourself?

DharmaHelper wrote:Voted for DharmaHelper.

Ummm.......what??

Welcome back, 'Goose!

Ok, voting juliets. She was killed by a Big Daddy, and llama never said he thought she was bad (like he did with LT). Mongoose also seemed pretty civ to me, but in a game where we've been reading people wrong left and right I'm going to play the math.

Wow, lots going on. Well Dom doesn't make me nervous since bea flipped civ. I also don't feel good about continuing to lynch 'B' voters, or even late BWT voters for that matter. I won't be voting Bullz tomorrow, unless something crazy happens. I do think INH randomizing for a rez and saying he still wants Bullz to go after yesterday's results bears some explaining.

Doesn't it make the most sense to rez one of the players killed by a Big Daddy? Then there's only a 5 in, what, 31 chance that they're non-civ aligned. I'll see who fits that description and vote them.

Oh no! I thought her posts had seemed civ, but later on when people were mentioning link between her and Dom I was almost convinced. Sorry to see you go, bea.

For the record, I'm glad to get something real out of Zany Dex.

Dex, I feel the same way a Spacedaisy. I meant absolutely no disparagement to your person or to the way you play mafia. If you're having fun you're doing it right, as far as I'm concerned. I simply suspect you of being a baddie, so I voted you, but please don't take that to mean I haven't enjoyed your presence in the game.

Bullzeye wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Very glad to hear you and your family are ok, Epi. I would've been shaking the rest of the drive.

Personally, Bullz's posts are reading desperate civ to me. I kind of get his frustration with lack of good options for defending oneself in mafia.

I'm likely to vote Dex today. I could probably also be convinced to vote G.O.B.

Can we hear some more from DH? He made a few great points during the post contest, and then promptly dropped off the map after walking away with his prize. A bit selfish, if it's not for rl reasons.

I wouldn't say desperate so much as very very very frustrated. As it's only really Dom and LA even discussing me I wouldn't care that much if I weren't the only thing they're discussing and if they weren't so obsessed with finding new ways to accuse me. I'm just tired of their incessant tunnel vision really. I think DH said he was going away on holiday or something though? Not totally sure.

Just in case they can convince more people to jump on the Bullzeye bandwagon I'm going to hold on to my vote for now but if I don't have to save myself I want to vote Dex. He's not really made a single contribution to the game, and usually he at least bothers to say something that's in some way relevant but not here. We should probably have lynched him a long time ago.

Who's LA again, Bullz? You're probably right about DH, I guess I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out.

I think I'm going to put my vote on Dex now. I agree with the part of Bullz's statement I bolded, and I think Dex may be hiding baddieness.

I think the discussion of Dom has been interesting. I don't think singlemindedness in going after baddies is necessarily a bad thing (if it was we'd have lynched Epi long ago). However, the back a forth between him and bea makes me a bit nervous.

Very glad to hear you and your family are ok, Epi. I would've been shaking the rest of the drive.

Personally, Bullz's posts are reading desperate civ to me. I kind of get his frustration with lack of good options for defending oneself in mafia.

I'm likely to vote Dex today. I could probably also be convinced to vote G.O.B.

Can we hear some more from DH? He made a few great points during the post contest, and then promptly dropped off the map after walking away with his prize. A bit selfish, if it's not for rl reasons.

Snowie, I think teefies is BWT.

bea, thanks for the response. Your analysis is really interesting, and makes me think maybe the names on your list need a second look.

I think I'm unlikely to vote bea today. Still leaning more G.O.B. or Dex more than anyone else, but I'd also like to hear what the names bea mentioned have to say about their vote records.

Hedgeowl wrote:

Boomslang wrote:Viking funeral, eh Mongoose? RIPIYWG. As for this day's lynch, it really doesn't seem like we're getting any significant new information. Good to see Ajira bringing up the post count, bad to see Dex being so rude :P. I don't want to get tunnel vision, but it seems like we haven't yet been able to act on the conclusions of the last few days, so I don't see lynch targets really getting changed.

Yeah, I agree with this. Not a lot has changed, so its a quiet forum again. Also, with tomorrows US of A holiday I imagine many like me will be voting early.

That's probably true. So, among those of us who are here (or in and out, at least), who are you guys favoring?

I forgot to mention G.O.B. in my earlier post, by the way. His postless voting also merits votes by now, I think.

I hope bea comes on and says something about her flip-flop on Epi. I'm having trouble deciding between her and Dex.

Good point. Well, RIPIYWG anyway Mongoose. I have no reason to think you weren't.

/\ Agreed. RIP(IYWG) Mongoose. someone obviously wasn't as convinced as Nev, since 'Goose was killed by a Splicer. I thought we started off so well 4 days ago, too.

Indiglo, thank you for posting the case on bea. I've been among those defending her (though I haven't been subtle about it), largely because no case besides her infamous vote had been posted. Now that there is one I'll consider it carefully. I think the flip-flop on Epi is a very good point, and I was unaware of her ability to use a 'sweet bea act', as I believe you described it.

Haha me too, Mata, the terminology is great.

Yeah, Mongoose, I suppose really it has no bearing on the G.O.B. situation directly. It just makes me more wary of lynching absentees in general. I also don't want to see him get by on not participating and win if he's evil though, and I completely understand if others still want to vote him. I guess I'm undecided for now.

RIP, Boats. I thought we had one there. I also hope rl starts to go better for you.

Mongoose, to answer your question it doesn't change my opinions much. I never thought the cases on bea or Bullz were strong and I still don't. I do still suspect Dex, and I think participating but offering nothing useful is different than not participating.

It does make me feel a little less gung-ho about a G.O.B. lynch.

Could someone remind me of the case for Bullz? I don't remember it, besides the Day 2 vote, and just want to be reminded.

Happy birthday, Boomy! Apparently I don't have your cell # any more, otherwise I'd have texted. PM me with it when you get a chance!

Voting Boats for now, since I think he's bad and support his lynch.

indiglo wrote:Plenty of good points have been made on both of them - and I think it's kinda weird that Bea chose to focus on silly things people said as a joke rather (voting for the B's) than defending against the real reasons posted.

indiglo, I suppose I could ask you too: what are the "real reasons" people have put out for lynching bea, besides her Day 2 vote?

bea, I think maybe your entire post should be in sarcastic orange.

Flyin' High wrote:Oh wow, another self vote! And from bea!? I don't recall ever seeing bea give up like this before...and I still am not sold on her being bad.

I get that real life can totally get in the way of playing mafia. Heck, I've been way quieter than is my norm due to real life these past few weeks. However, real life doesn't dictate what role the host gave you and the thread evidence seems to show that Boats has BTSC. And as we've determined, there really aren't any clear civvie explanations for that. So Occam's Razor says that Boats is likely to be mafia. I feel like we return to the argument that was rampant during MOTU Mafia. If someone is mafia but they aren't actively playing, are they really a threat? I guess it depends on if MP lets teammates send in powers for each other.

@MP are the mafia allowed to send in each other's night powers if a teammate isn't around to do so?

I agree that Boomslang might warrant a closer look. The way he came up with the "half and half" chance of Boats having civvie BTSC and in the same post completely left out an entire mafia team seems very strange. But since the facts are so easy to corroborate by simply reading the roles on the first page, I can't quite decide what purpose being blatantly wrong about the BTSC possibilities in this game would serve, other than I suppose to save Boats for another day and/or hope no one noticed.

And I'm sure I'm beginning to sound like a broken record about Dex, but I just can't shake the feeling that he is purposefully trying to distract us with his posts. And I think it has worked if that is what he's doing because he was on a lot more people's radars early in the game, but has sort of drifted off the main list of suspicious characters for those more in favor of the 'B's are Baddies' theory.

And lastly, I think Bea and others might be on to something with G.O.B.'s behavior. Showing up to vote but not posting and then making one post when called out on it but playing the noob card makes it both hard to get a solid read on him and hard to trust his motives.

Thanks for the post, FH. I'm glad that I'm not the only one thinking along these lines.

I'm going to be putting my vote toward getting Boats, Dex, or G.O.B. lynched today, whichever of the 3 seems most likely to work.

Boomslang, do you have a response about the part of FH's post I bolded? I tend to agree with her that messing up easily verifiable facts wouldn't benefit a baddie. So I guess I'm a bit confused by it.

Nev, I'll direct this at you since I didn't get a response when I asked it generally: is there any thread evidence against bea? I agree with Ajira that one misguided Day 2 vote is a long way from being assured baddiedom.

I'm also interested to hear what Epi and DH think now. They posted a ton during the contest, but because there was so much material and the last lynch didn't go as they expected I'm uncertain as to where they stand right now on the names being discussed.

RIPIYWG Vomps. Ryan clearly didn't think you were, but I wasn't sure. I think it's worth noting that Sullivan has apparently attempted 2 kills now and succeeded with his first last night. On Night 6 he'll have to either attempt his third and get a 50% chance of suicide nightly or go anti-Ryan.

I'm still having trouble seeing the bea case. As I stated, I get that her vote timing was bad on the BWT lynch. But the rest of the case against her seems to be 1) Quote her. 2) Say, "This sounds like something a baddie would say." 3) Add to the chorus of suspicion against her. Can anyone point out any specific thread evidence that points to evil? Something along the lines of Epi's criteria (inconsistencies and such) would help me out with that.

At one point bea said "Tell me why I'm suspected and I'll address it." I forget who it was, but someone quoted that and said they thought a baddie would say that. Ridiculous. I've only played in 5 or so mafia games, and I am SURE I have heard someone say just that in at least 3 of them.

I do definitely have sympathy for the rl situation Boats is dealing with right now, but I have to make decisions on him based on what I think his role is. I looked back at his voting record and posts and realized that the only time since Day 0 that he's been around was Day 3, when he self-voted. Not bad in itself, but Night 2 was the night both Big Daddies killed last. If I read their roles correctly one of them attempts to kill every other night, and one attempts to kill every third night starting on Night 2. Now, it's certainly possible that the Big Daddy kill for Night 4 failed (it has a 70% chance of success, I believe), but I think it's also worth examining the possibility that no PM was sent and Boats or another inactive (I'd have to search vote records again to see if there were others) is the Big Daddy. I just thought that should be mentioned, though it doesn't mean I'm certain to vote Boats. I want to see what others think of this first.

By the way, Zany Dex has dropped off the radar, and I still think he should still be looked at closely for his entirely unhelpful behavior. The longer it goes on, the more I think he's a baddie whose strategy is to say nothing related to the game so he can't be caught lying. The G.O.B. situation worries me more the longer he keeps playing this way, as well. Though I was the first to defend him earlier, I'd consider voting him now.

I also think (as I said yesterday, but the thread was swamped) that Boomslang should be looked at more closely. I can't shake the weird, "50-50 that BTSC is civ" thing.

I know people have been busy, but I'd love to hear more from some lower posters (Spacedaisy, Ajira, INH, and DFaraday come to mind). I'm sure you have useful things to contribute and think more voices in the discussion always helps.

Damn. RIP boo. If only you hadn't acted so threatening.

I thought it was pretty funny that "damn fool" was incorporated into your death post. Hopefully it was some consolation to you too.

I don't know, Snowie. I suppose the host post will reveal all. Any idea what Ryan's "thing" could be reference to? I don't see anything in the roles that explains it.

On the other hand, I do agree with a lot of the names boo mentioned on his list. I'm not sure if it should make me feel better about him since most of them have been batted around all day anyway, but it makes me slightly more nervous.

16

Well I guess Boats could have skimmed everything. Someone pointed out that he seemed to have digested all the major events. I don't know. I'm happy with my boo vote, for now. I just hope it pans out. And don't forget, you can still overtake Mongoose and not lose!

15

Snow Dog wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:Also to throw stuff out there, well boo is one of my suspicions like I just said with the vote. Honestly I don't really have many. 3 games is hard for me to keep up with! I'll make sure never to do this again as it would seem I haven't learned the first million times I've done this.

11

Besides this Boo vote you just seem so non committal. You just won't be pinned down. Now playing too many mafia games..I get that. I have done the same thing. You don't make it easy though. Wishy-washy. That is how I would describe you answers. Wishy-washy.
Ok you are saying that boats had time to skim the posts and his thoughts in, what was it..12 minutes? I mean if that is right the bottom falls out of the whole theory. Personally I don't know..never timed myself.

31

Based on how long my reread yesterday took (hours, to get everything straight), I doubt it's possible. Boats may be a faster reader than me. However, I doubt he's THAT much faster.

14

Dammit, DP. Your 3-sentence posts are going to get me punished. Mine are taking too long to type. :P

Would you like to hear any of my suspicions, or offer more of your own? Things should be discussed!

13

nutella wrote:

Russtifinko wrote: As for Boomslang, I thought his civ BTSC theory was very strange as well. It's possible he just misunderstood, I suppose. I also found it strange that he didn't even consider the possibility of the ADAM Guardians having BTSC. I just kind of assumed they would, since they're a baddie team, but no one has mentioned it. Do you think they have BTSC, and if so do you think people ignored the possibility on purpose during that discussion?

I don't see why that's relevant because they're a baddie team. I don't get why Boomslang was talking about baddie btsc anyway. I feel like this whole discussion is pointless because it's already been established that there's no way Boats has btsc that's not a baddie/indie team.

20

This is true. What I'm saying doesn't have much bearing on boo's goodness or badness. To be really explicit, I'm saying I think Boomslang was intentionally inflating the odds of civvie BTSC, possibly to undermine the arguments against Boats. I'll be watching them both very very closely from now on.

And it's also just good to know which baddie teams have BTSC, generally, so I'm trying to make sure people have the right info.

12

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Florida for a week Epig.

We used to live there. What part?

Orlando! Though we're staying away from parks this year and just focusing on having fun in Orlando proper.

I don't know what to think about this Ace/Boo revelation. On the one hand ID necessarily GAF what Aces gut is telling him because my gut is telling me the opposite. And things have backed up my gut. On the other hand, if I'm wrong about boo I'll feel pretty dumb. Though I won't feel all that bad as, as I said, he seems to be in a mode that can best be described as "me or him" so, I'll pick him every time. Boats (and other non voters) being slammed by MP is something I've considered and is a good point in favor of letting nature take its course on that front. Though in GOB's case, he seems to be catching the votes and just not posting, so that might be something to address ourselves rather than let MP handle it behind the scenes.

52.

We lived just north of Orlando for four years. I began as a teacher in Orlando. Hot as hell and fuck the lizards.

I won't vote for boo, but I am eager to see where this is going. Let me ask you something. If you could only vote for bea or Boats, which would you choose and why? Boats last talked around 5ish EST, so I don't mind waiting, but I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.

Addendum: Boomslang, I appreciate your response. That said, you should know that llama, despite his cool, logical manner on real life things, is highly impetuous in others!

59

Hey! Some of us resemble that remark!

I agree that boo's "Screw you all; if I can't win I hope you die!" attitude makes it hard to sympathize with him. Was Boomslang saying that he thinks llama is suspicious even though he is dead and flipped civ? That actually is even weirder to me that his theory about BTSC. Also, I thought it was clear from the post Boomslang quoted that llama had been joking in his exchange with Snow Dog. Again, different interpretations, which is fine, but all of this together is making me very uneasy about Ol' Boomy.

11

Sorry, that was

10

@Aces. I see. Thanks. I had missed your name in all of that. In a later quote (please don't make me find it) Snow was responding to Dom's accusation that he deflected onto Dom, and he actually (I think) deflected to Dom again in the response post. However, Snow Dog has definitely deflected as a civ in previous games, and I almost find it more civ-Snowie than bad-Snowie to deflect, if that makes sense. Anyway, right now his posts are reading on-his-own Snowie more than BTSC-Snowie to me.

@Snow Dog, I am actually somewhat interested in your Vomps theory. Not to vote him before other, better, candidates, but just to keep an eye on him. I don't think him seeing llama as civ makes him bad (after all, I thought llama was probably good too). The Lizzy thing interested me more, but we don't know her alignment now so I'm kind of in the dark as to what it means. I think it's also possible they just bonded over mutual weirdness and it had nothing to do with being in-game teammates.

@ Epi: I'm reluctant to vote G.O.B. yet because of his newness and how daunting the thread is, but this voting-without-posting thing is a pattern now, and not one I like. He would know not to do that if he read the thread after doing it the first time. He also showed up suspiciously quickly (in my opinion) to post after (I think it was bea) mentioning that he was too quiet, and then disappeared again. It's all starting to paint a very shady picture for me.

As for Boomslang, I thought his civ BTSC theory was very strange as well. It's possible he just misunderstood, I suppose. I also found it strange that he didn't even consider the possibility of the ADAM Guardians having BTSC. I just kind of assumed they would, since they're a baddie team, but no one has mentioned it. Do you think they have BTSC, and if so do you think people ignored the possibility on purpose during that discussion?

Yeah, their vote records didn't help much. Dom voted for llama twice and Snowie on Day 2. Snowie went for A Person on Day 1 and Lizzy the next two days. Nothing particularly damning or good in either case. My guess is that Dom just overreacted to Snowie's overreaction, but I don't think either post says much about their alignments.

9

Linki: Aces, mind quoting where Snow Dog deflected onto you?

Epi, to be honest I kind of dismissed the entire Dom-Snow Dog thing at the time, having been more occupied with other lynch candidates. I still think it's not Priority #1. I tend to believe Snow Dog when he says he posted in annoyance regarding agleaminranks. I shared his frustration with the strange in-game behavior of agleam and others, and if I'm being totally honest I think it colored my opinions of some players (Lizzy comes to mind). So I see where Snowie was coming from there, and nothing else he's done has drawn my attention particularly.

Dom did go after Snowie pretty hard for that, which I disagreed with, but he can play how he wants. He's only posted 16 times in this game, I believe, so there's little material to go on, and I think I only played with him in MOTU and had trouble reading him there. I guess if I had to pick one, I'd say he looks slightly less civ to me than Snowie. I'll take a look at their voting records though.

What are your thoughts on Boomslang? I think his contributions today have been noteworthy.

8

Epignosis wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Epignosis wrote:
My personal opinion is that boo was lying his ass off. The specifics of what he's said (and how he presented himself) doesn't add up if what he were saying is actually true. It's primarily AceofSpaces reaction that stays my hand- that, and the fact that we have no shortage of others worth lynching.

The takeaway from this, I guess, is if boo is your #1 suspect and you're not buying what he's selling, then by all means, vote for him. I'm just a little nervous is all.

51

Ok, well I fully agree that boo was lying his ass off, and so I'm glad I voted him. I don't know what to make of Aces suddenly defending him, especially after they went at each other Day 1. In light of this, contrary to what I said before, I will now give Aces a very hard look if boo does flip bad. It's possible the Day 1 thing was staged. Wanna hear more thoughts regarding others? Ask me! Hint: I'm trying to up my post count.

6

Ah, I didn't notice you had already voted. Sorry!

Your theory about AceofSpaces and boo staging their animosity (and therefore this outlandish episode) did cross my mind. The reason I dismissed it is that AceofSpaces came very close to being lynched on Day 2, and boo voted for him. That makes it very hard for me to believe that the Ace vs boo Day 1 wasn't genuine.

52

That's a very good point. In that case, I don't know what to make of Aces either way yet. Have you noticed that Ajira is signed on? I don't recall seeing any posts from him for a while. I wonder if he'll contribute any thoughts?

Linki: Speak of the devil. I'll have to read up, but Skyping my girlfriend first.

7

Epignosis wrote:
My personal opinion is that boo was lying his ass off. The specifics of what he's said (and how he presented himself) doesn't add up if what he were saying is actually true. It's primarily AceofSpaces reaction that stays my hand- that, and the fact that we have no shortage of others worth lynching.

The takeaway from this, I guess, is if boo is your #1 suspect and you're not buying what he's selling, then by all means, vote for him. I'm just a little nervous is all.

51

Ok, well I fully agree that boo was lying his ass off, and so I'm glad I voted him. I don't know what to make of Aces suddenly defending him, especially after they went at each other Day 1. In light of this, contrary to what I said before, I will now give Aces a very hard look if boo does flip bad. It's possible the Day 1 thing was staged. Wanna hear more thoughts regarding others? Ask me! Hint: I'm trying to up my post count.

6

5