The Syndicate

Roxy wrote: Linky llama - if you read back further it was me

Okay, but the discussion didn't start to really revolve around him until he-man's post. Anyway, you are definitely civvie so I am not worried about that post. :P

He-Man wrote:Fwiw russ is no longer giving me warm and civvie thoughts

Lol SVS fair enough

This is the first instance I can find of someone mentioning russ. Pretty sure He-Man is civvie though, so I don't know if it means much. Ambray quickly agreed with He-Man here.

Boogs wrote: Guys what are your thoughts on Rogue?

Three, two, one, not it!

MovingPictures07 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Now that Russ flipped good, I am more likely to think Elo is bad, which means I am also more likely to think Snow Dog is bad due to his vote for the Ship on Day 0

This is a thought. That and his poor voting record and NO U's and overreactions could point to a baddie Snow Dog. My gut says a big IDK because I've gone back and forth between times where I thought he should be looked at and other times where he seemed totally reasonably civvie to me.

You said you didn't see anything wrong with Boogs? Why?

I don't know. He seemed logical and reasonable to me. Nothing stuck out as obviously suspicious. Why DO you think he's bad?

As for Snow Dog, his posts generally strike me as coming from a civvie, but then I felt the same way during MOTU and was fooled. I think his voting record and push for SHip (I know he says he idn't push for ship, but he was clearly arguing against house which is a de facto push for ship) strike me as more significant.

Now that Russ flipped good, I am more likely to think Elo is bad, which means I am also more likely to think Snow Dog is bad due to his vote for the Ship on Day 0

D'oh! Sorry Russ, I really thought you were bad. On the plus side, his power was not as useful as most of the other civvies and I now feel more confident in my suspicion of Elohcin, since if Russ had been bad she would have been more likely to be good.

Roxy wrote: llama - why are you no longer suspicious of DP after voting for him for 2 days? Your suspicion of him seemed to just drop right off.

It's not so much that it dropped off as that it has been supplanted by suspicions of other people as more data creeps into the thread. Don't worry, I still have my on him.

reywaS wrote:

Flyin' High wrote:I am feeling a bit nervous about this lynch because it seems like a nice bandwagon has formed on Russ, but for lack of a stronger candidate, I will vote for him as well.

It makes me a little nervous as well. The baddie team either just completely gave up on Russ or they are laughing their asses off right now. The signs do point to Russ being bad though, so that's where my vote will go.

Vote: Russ

I can understand the nervousness at bandwagonry, but remember that there are not very many bad guys in this game. The four people I have marked on my spreadsheet as potential baddies are either dead or haven't voted yet, so I am not too worried.

I've seen enough as well. Sorry, Russ. Time to go.

*Votes Russ*

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Once again. There is no check to his season. I'm a man.

Stormcrow wrote:Snow Dog is ill.

I wondered where he was. Get well soon, Snowy!

I just did a reread of Boogs, and frankly se nothing suspicious about him at all. He reads quite civvie to me, and Russtifinko trying to assert that he is bad makes me want to vote for Russ all the more.

I don't object to it. I merely found it worthy of comment.

S~V~S wrote:Maybe Aether has good reason to think he is a civ. Perhaps Aether Portal knows his game well enough to feel he needs protecting today from being an easy target, like he often is? Or perhaps to stop a few civvie votes from funneling to him and allowing the baddies to dominate the lynch that way?

i think having DP off todays poll is s good idea, we need to keep it as close as possible so we can see who does what a little more clearly without distractions. Distractions and obscurity allow for higher chances of shenanigans.

Don't get me wrong. I don't object to DP being off the poll. I wasn't going to vote for him anyway. But if I were Aether, I would take someone off the poll whom I thought was good, but also likely to get a lot of votes. Myself, for example, or Snow Dog or maybe even Russ. Of course, if Aether thinks all of us are bad, then it makes sense to remove DP I guess. I don't know that it means anything, but I thought it was worth discussing. I don't know why wanting to talk about it makes me look evil to reywaS.

Does anyone else find it odd that the Aether Portal has apparently decided to remove DP from today's poll? DP has never ben in danger of getting a ton of votes and he has done nothing in thread to try to convince us that he is a civvie. It seems a strange choice to me.

FH said everything I was going to say in answer to MP. Her allegiance to Epi and voting pattern make me think she is still bad, and I don't necessarily think her being bad makes Russ good.

Well, I am really disappointed we didn't find out the truth about Elohcin. I was basing all my reasoning on weather she was good or not, and now that I don't know, it makes things really hard.

Russ's defense was impassioned and convincingly told, but so was Snow Dog's and I think one of the two of them must be bad. I need to read Boogs again, but I seem to remember some of his posts striking me as a bit odd. I too, was almost sure HeMan was good, so I'm sad to see him go.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Different audio ambray survived an assassination attempt. Maybe try to figure out who that death hope will be very useful.

Are you insanified, BWT? Your posts almost make sense, so maybe you're just drunk.

S~V~S wrote: I am thrilled to bits that I am not insanified, I really did expect it

So am I and so did I.

BIH Elohcin. I still think you were a nogoodnik.

I had another thought on Russ. It's possible he was trying to split the vote between Epi and Elohcin, two baddies, so that each of them would have few enough votes that the baddies could use some vote manipulation tricks (such as the skeleton's power) to get someone else instead (me, most likely.)

It would have been risky, but the writing was on the wall that either Epi or Elohcin was going down that day, so he may have felt he had no choice. I realize that this is a longshot theory, but it would provide an explanation for both Russ and Elohcin being bad.

I agree with SNow Dog that FH is very unlikely to be on Epi's team.

If Elohcin flips baddie, I think Snow Dog is alos bad, and I'm not sure about Russ.
If Elohcin flips civvie, I think Snow Dog is innocent and Russ is definitely bad.

I would like to see how Elohcin flips for one major reason, to further my read on Snow Dog, who I am coming increasingly to suspect.

If Elohcin is bad, then we know two of the baddies voted Ship in day zero. Snow Dog also voted ship, and as others have pointed out, his discusion over the logic of ouse votes read like he was pushing Ship.

Then there's this:

Snow Dog wrote:So the baddies are amongst the Epignosis votes.

I agree that logically, baddies would have been more likely to vote Epignosis, but the categorical nature of the statement struck me as trying to brush away suspicion from himself with a little too much eagerness.

If Elohcin flips civvie, however, I would be less likely to suspect Snow Dog based on the Ship evidence.

Russtifinko wrote: I think Epi is most likely the zombie (if he is bad, of course). That's because if he were another baddie, it's possible that his teammates would allow him to be lynched and try to distance themselves from him (aside from Eloh, who was probably in trouble if he went down). On the other hand, if he were zombie he'd have been forced to use the switch, since it would have been his only chance before dying. If that's the case, Epi has no power anymore (except possibly using his team's NK), and thus is less valuable than the other baddies, who all have other powers to use. If everyone feels ok with an Eloh lynch, I think it has the potential to hurt the baddies more. Hope that makes sense. On the other hand, if people are more sure about Epi or feel a lynch for him would yield more info that's a fair argument to make.

People are mentioning Russ, so I did a reread of him and saw nothing alarming until I got to this. This is a piece of astonishingly clear reasoning, so clear in fact that it leads one to wonder if he didn't just know that Epi was a zombie all along. It would be a crafty and clever play to out a teammate and then later have the chance to say "I told you he was bad early on! How can I be his teammate?"

Of course, it could just be that Russ has an extraordinarily logical mind.

(yes, yes, I realize that this is all very WIFOM, but worth considering I think.)

S~V~S wrote:The fact that they tried to kill me night one could go either way; they did it to shut me up about Llama, or they did it to frame Llama. Either is very possible, and I am aware of that. I will likely vote Elo today, unless something changes.

I really hope the Spider doesn't insanify you tomorrow, because I know I will get the blame for it!

Elohcin wrote: I vote Epig to show that I am not on his team and that I am not a baddie. Plain and simple. Why would I vote for a teammate? I would not vote for him to say, "I am Epig's teammate and I'm going to try to prove to you that I'm not", b/c I am a horrible liar.

And, yes, you'll be eating socks I'm telling you, I am a horrible liar. And, I am not baddie. I am definitely civvie and a friend of yours

I just don't believe you. Ever since the lynch switch it was clear that Epi was going down. His teammate(s) would have had little choice but to vote for him or draw suspicion onto themselves, so your vote tells me nothing about your allegiance. YOu've been behaving very much like someone in Rob's camp.

I think Snow dog certainly but I want to lynch Elohcin first, and then maybe SVS, although I am still not sure about her. We will have to see how Snow Dog develops until then.

Roxy wrote:llama - what do you make of Snow Dog following your vote today? Do you still feel he is civ?

Well, Snow Dog did vote for DP before I did today, so I don't know if he really followed my vote. I think it is entirely possible that he is bad, but I don't think the vote alone indicates that. When he voted, Epignosis was already doomed. Wouldn't it make more sense for a baddie to try to blend in with the crowd at that point?

Haha! Excellent result. I knew civvie Rob would have been more friendly to me. I really think Elohcin is the way to go tomorrow.

It is quite interesting how different MP and SVS's perception of me is. Personally, I think my behavior is consistent with my other games, but of course you would expect me to say that.

I was just looking at the roles again and noticed the Spider. Does anyone think it is significant that no one was insanified today? Presumably the spider was just role blocked, but there may have been missing PMs, meaning that he may be an inactive player.

@Kate: Were there missing PMs from last night?

MovingPictures07 wrote: There is also the nasty business of the SK. Anyone have any thoughts here? I want to try and get all of my thoughts and as much discussion into the thread as we possibly can, while not overloading and overanalyzing, because in order to best help the civvies win this game and because I might be dying again really soon, unfortunately. I can't imagine the baddies will want to keep a confirmed civ around, but I don't know.

Yes, I am worried about you getting killed again as well. The nice thing about being an easy scapegoat is that the baddies have less of an incentive to kill me off!

MovingPictures07 wrote: So why did you vote DP instead of Epig anyway? Why not vote for Elohcin? She's not posting at all today, at least DP did. It's exactly as reywaS said; no one's giving DP a "free pass". In fact, when DP first started playing, I'll never forget how many times he was lynched early on in game after game after game, even quite often as a civvie.

Epi already had enough votes to assure that he would get the most, and by enough to prevent vote manipulation saving him. Given that, my vote no longer really mattered, so I registered my disapproval for DP by way of a second vote. If Epi flips baddie, Elohcin will undoubtedly be next, so there was no need to target her. I wanted to keep DP in the discussion and, as you see, I managed to provoke him into a real response, which pleased me a great deal. I am very happy with my vote right now.

Epignosis wrote:I'm voting again for the thellama73.

Nice knowing you Logan.

I don't like the sound of that.

I hope you were referring to your own departure and not mine.

indiglo wrote:*posts off topic*


*affects gameplay*

Stop that, you.

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:I have jazz band practice.

What instrument do you play?

Snow Dog wrote:

Roxy wrote:I am cool with that Snow Dog I have zero to hide

Neither have I.

Me neither!

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote: Alright so I read back. At first you thought Elohcin (another low poster) was bad, and on a team with Rob, who you also think is bad. You also thought it was weird she suddenly followed suit on your vote for me, something I also find strange. Then suddenly you decide you do not trust me for... whatever reason. And vote for me.

Not "suddenly decide." I haven't trusted you for a long time, which is why I voted for you on day one.

In any case, my vote managed to get you to contribute more than you have in the entire game so far, and I view that as a worthy accomplishment in itself.

Roxy wrote:Llama - my last post directed to Snow Dog and his vote should be read by you as well as now it applies to you. You are now back on my watch list.

Snow Dog - bear waching as in I will track your movements during game and see how your future suspicions progress.

That's fair. I think DP is bad, so I voted for him. If that makes me suspicious, so be it.

Snow Dog wrote: I meant I don't know what bear watching means. Still don't.

Bear Watching:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Roxy wrote:Epig and llama - this is just Porcu's playstyle.

It may be his playstyle, but it doesn't mean he is good.

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote: Talk about a really sudden vote. :O

Talk about another one.

*Votes DP*

Any reason you're targeting me in particular? Not any other lower posters?

Yes, I don't trust you.

Regarding targeting low posters in general. We just had a vote in the MOTU thread in which only four of the twelve survivors posted because of everyone's aversion to voting for low posters. I don't like thta kind of endgame, and I don't want the same thing to happen here.

Roxy wrote:Epig and llama - this is just Porcu's playstyle.

It may be his playstyle, but it doesn't mean he is good.

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote: Talk about a really sudden vote. :O

Talk about another one.

*Votes DP*

Epignosis wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:Yeah, I'm really not liking these recent happenings so...

votes Epi

Well that's really descriptive of you.

It's in keeping with everything else he's said so far this game. I don't know why people are so intent on giving him a free pass when he refuses to participate.

Flyin' High wrote:if someone else was Body Armor, they would have spoken up by now (indiglo posted during the night and if she was Body Armor, she would have used that opportunity to say MP wasn't that role).

This. The more Rob posts, the less I trust him. His arguments about MP not being who he seems to be are built on nothing other than a desire for Epi to save himself.

Snow Dog's hypothesis is possible, but I see no reason to assume that at this point. If Rob turns out civvie, it will be a different matter.

Snow Dog wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:

Roxy wrote:

Snow Dog - no that will not make me feel better tbh - it makes me just want to keep an eye on you, thats all.

Nonsense.

If Epi is proved bad I can hardly suspect He man of still being bad can I? Unless he is Herobine. which I'm sure he isn't.

Why are you sure He Man isn't Herobine?

Change that to...I don't think he is.

I grant that the odds are against it, but do you have any other reason for that thought?

Snow Dog wrote:

Roxy wrote:

Snow Dog - no that will not make me feel better tbh - it makes me just want to keep an eye on you, thats all.

Nonsense.

If Epi is proved bad I can hardly suspect He man of still being bad can I? Unless he is Herobine. which I'm sure he isn't.

Why are you sure He Man isn't Herobine?

reywaS wrote:llama, I am curious about something. You have been quite vocal since MP's lynch that you think Epi was being framed. Then, seemingly out of the blue after recently reiterating this thought, you say this:

thellama73 wrote:It seems the vote is headed towards Epignosis, so I have been thinking hard about him.

Logically, I think the baddies would have been smarter to switch a civvie to another civvie than to protect one of their own. However, I know Rob quite well and we usually have quite a good rapport. There has been no such banter during this game. There has been a cool distance between us, and it saddens me. This makes me think that he is indeed a baddie and likely his wife with him. I would be okay with a Epignosis lynch today.

and now this morning:

thellama73 wrote:I wish I had the certainty of others in this thread. Epignosis makes a convincing case for himself, and I believe I have demonstrated how a frame job would be a better baddie strategy than a straight protection. However, if Epignosis is indeed bad, would they not have used the switch to save him? I am reading Elohcin as bad, and I think she is on a team with Rob, so that makes me suspect him as well.

SVS is a tough one. Her Captain Ahab mentality with me seems very odd, but I don't know if a baddie would expose themselves so. I keep going around and around in a very WIFOM way on her, unable to decide. I would actually prefer to lynch Elohcin today over Rob, but I'm holding my vote for now.

You aren't exactly convincing me that I was wrong in thinking that you and Epi are team mates....

I can explain this. My analysis of why framing Epi would be a smart move remains sound, but I only recently realized that I was setting up a false dichotomy. The baddies cannot choose whether Epi is bad or not, and given that he got the most votes, the only decision they could make was rather to save him or not. Therefore, the fact that a frame would be logically superior to a straight save is irrelevant in that situation. I was nervous about lynching him for fear that he is civvie, and I still am a little nervous about it, but I am much more amenable to a vote for him than I was before. Elohcin's behavior pi9ngs me more than Rob's does, but I would be okay with lynching either of them today. I also have a lot of faith in MP's analytical skills now that we know he is civvie, so I tend to give his theories the benefit of the doubt unless I can clearly see why he is wrong.

Hope that clears things up.

MovingPictures07 wrote: You still think this to be the case?

I think if the baddies had a choice between framing a civvie and protecting one of their own, framing a civvie would be the smarter choice. However, they did not have a choice. Epi is either a baddie or he is not. If he is not, it would have been smart for them to switch the vote. If he is, it also would have been smart for them to switch the vote. Given how the conversation has progressed, I think he is more likely bad than not at this point.

MovingPictures07 wrote: Linki with llama: You did not see any effect from your vote? This is interesting. I would comment further, but were you even allowed to say that? Lol.

Bear in mind, I might be lying.

I expect you can't answer this, but how do you know the house is good, MP? I didn't see any effect from my vote.

I wish I had the certainty of others in this thread. Epignosis makes a convincing case for himself, and I believe I have demonstrated how a frame job would be a better baddie strategy than a straight protection. However, if Epignosis is indeed bad, would they not have used the switch to save him? I am reading Elohcin as bad, and I think she is on a team with Rob, so that makes me suspect him as well.

SVS is a tough one. Her Captain Ahab mentality with me seems very odd, but I don't know if a baddie would expose themselves so. I keep going around and around in a very WIFOM way on her, unable to decide. I would actually prefer to lynch Elohcin today over Rob, but I'm holding my vote for now.

Epignosis wrote: What would you have me say?

If I say, "Don't lynch me, I'm a civilian," people say, "Yeah right, typical baddie behavior!"
If I say, "I was framed!" people say, "You're just saying that because you're a baddie and want us to believe that!"
If I say, "S~V~S was targeted to make me look bad," people say "WIFOM and I'm not buying it, baddie!"
If I say, "Elohcin and I do not have BTSC," people say, "Yeah right, baddie! Look at how she follows you around like a duckling baddie!"
If I say, "He-Man was being inconsistent in Day 1," then you say, "He pulls a NO U." (whatever that is)

There is absolutely nothing I can say that will serve as a satisfactory defense. One cannot break wind without drawing suspicion.

This is essentially the reason I stopped responding to SVS.

What say you about the uncharacteristic chilliness between us in this game, Rob?

Ah, thanks for the clarification. Honestly, the reason I started responding to you in earnest was not because you survived a NK, but because I simply forgot that I was ignoring you and got sucked in.

S~V~S wrote: I know, me too, I am fried. Although, like I said, DP is often an easy target. So Llama, who voted for me, saying HE was an easy target made me feel good about my early "hissy fit" vote for Llama. That was really the whole point of me bringing DP up~

I never voted for you. What are you talking about?