The Syndicate

Turnip Head wrote:It seems clear to me that Mikami and Takada gain BTSC when Mikami receives his Death Note - the roles literally say that this happens - but if Llama doesn't want to believe that for some reason, that's his choice.

That's not what the roles say. On says "when Mikami starts killing" and one says "at some point" and that Mikami makes a fake death note.

EBWOP, FZ, not FX.

Okay, Logic 101, because apparently people need it.

FX, Elohcin, and TH all made positive claims amount the amount of BTSC in the game at present. Those are assumptions.

I pointed out that those claims are not necessarily correct - they might be correct, but the only way you could know that is if you have inside information. This is not an assumption. This is pointing out that the positive claims present lack evidence.

Turnip Head wrote:And you are ASSUMING that they are not the same event...

This works both ways...

I'm making no such assumption. Read my posts.

Turnip Head wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:If Misa and Mikami had Death Notes already, I think we'd be seeing a lot more death. This does not seem an unreasonable assumption to make...
The role doesn't say that Mikami has to have a death note to gain BTSC. It says "at some point."

Assumptions...

Sockface wrote:Kiyomi Takada – Classmate and former girlfriend of Light Yagami, Takada becomes the official spokeswoman for Kira if Demegawa dies. Like Demegawa, she may only be Kira's spokeswoman after L has died. If Mikami starts killing, she gains BTSC with both Light and Mikami separately, facilitating communication among the three of them. Because of a romantic rivalry with Misa Amane, her vote is worth 3 if she ever votes for Misa. If she has become Kira's spokeswoman, every night she can force one player to vote the way she wishes the subsequent day.
What was that you were saying Llama?

That's Takada's role, not Mikami's. You're ASSUMING that Mikami gaining btsc with Takada "at some point" is the same event as Takada gaining BTSC with both Light and Mikami separately. They could be distinct.

Turnip Head wrote:If Misa and Mikami had Death Notes already, I think we'd be seeing a lot more death. This does not seem an unreasonable assumption to make...

The role doesn't say that Mikami has to have a death note to gain BTSC. It says "at some point."

Assumptions...

Assumptions, assumptions. Oh how I distrust assumptions.

The great Murray Rothbard once wrote that theoretical reasoning "is bound to be slipshod when their methodological doctrine is that assumptions don’t have to be true in order to work".

Elohcin wrote:OHHH...I think I see where you are getting at. I mean very little BTSC right NOW. DUH!

And you know that Misa hasn't received a death note, how? And you know that's Mikami's "at some point" hasn't happened yet, how?

Elohcin wrote:@ llama - I am not understanding how I lied. Please elaborate.

I think the point is adequately made for now.

FZ. wrote: linki: A lot of these BTSC happen after the Kiras (one of them) gains a death note or starts killing. Since we've only seen one death, I doubt any of these have happened....though I didn't carefully read all of them, just skimmed

We've only seen one death? I guess SVS doesn't count. Poor SVS

Elohcin wrote: For anyone, what would you consider to be "suspicious behavior" in a game like this where there is very little BTSC?

I consider lying about the rules of the game suspicious behavior.

MovingPictures07 wrote: Shuichi Aizawa – Takes his job very seriously and can be rather opinionated, and thus clashes at times with Matsuda and Misa Amane. He has some respect for L, but seems to hold him in contempt. At some point, the tensions may become too high for Aizawa, and he may choose to leave the Japanese Task Force. On two separate occasions, he may start an argument with either Matsuda or Misa, role blocking one of them. Aizawa cannot control which player is blocked, however. If L ever votes for Aizawa in a lynch or vice versa, Aizawa leaves the Japanese Task Force, and gains BTSC with Hideki Ide.

Hideki Ide – Characterized by a fiery temper and a hatred for foolishness, Ide especially does not get along with L, and refuses to abide by his methods. If he ever votes for L to be lynched, his vote that day is worth 5. Gains BTSC with Shuichi Aizawa if Aizawa quits the Japanese Task Force. (Secrets)

Near – One of two possible individuals being groomed to be the successor to L in case of disaster, Near is much like a younger version of L: socially awkward, but incredibly intelligent and cunning. If L dies, Near takes over the Kira investigation and starts the Special Provision for Kira (SPK), determined to catch Kira before Mello does. Near cannot be lynched unless L is dead; until that time, he cannot use any role ability. Because of his anonymous existence, he cannot be night killed by Kira unless Kira first knows his role. As head of the SPK, he continues investigating where L left off. At the end of every night, he may either gain anonymous BTSC with any player of his choice for the subsequent day/night cycle, or search for the active Kira. If he finds the active Kira and Matsuda is still alive, the game will end and the Detectives will win. If he finds the active Kira and Matsuda is dead, the game will still end, but Light has a chance of escaping unharmed. This outcome can end in either a Detective win or a Kira win, with the likelihood of each unknown to Near and Light.

Raye Penber – An FBI agent who begins investigating Light Yagami when L tells him to. Has BTSC with Naomi. (Secrets)

Naomi Misora – A former FBI agent and fiancée of Raye Penber. If Raye dies while investigating Light, she picks up where he left off. Has BTSC with Raye. (Secrets)

Shingo Mido - After Higuchi has killed two victims, he invites Namikawa, Shimura, and Ooi to a secret meeting. Mido, Namikawa, Shimura, and Ooi gain temporary BTSC; the secret meeting lasts one full day/night cycle.

Light Yagami (Kira) – The initial finder of a Death Note, Light is a high-school senior who quickly grows obsessed with power, declaring himself the ultimate decider of criminals’ fates. Determined to create a new perfect world without evil, Light will manipulate or kill anyone in his way. Has BTSC with Ryuk. (Secrets)

Ryuk – A shinigami who appears to Light shortly after he discovers his Death Note, Ryuk explains that he has to stay with Light until he either dies or the Death Note is destroyed, and that he ‘dropped’ the Death Note into the human world because he was bored. As a shinigami, he cannot be harmed by humans, nor can he be seen by humans who have not made contact with his Death Note. Oh, and he loves apples. Has BTSC with Light Yagami. Because he is a shinigami, votes by humans in lynches do not affect him, and writing his name down in a Death Note will not kill him. Thus, he cannot be lynched or night killed. However, if he is about to be killed for the second time, although he will still not die, his existence will be made aware to everyone, outing him. Even though Ryuk refuses to take sides and often finds pleasure at Light’s misfortunes, he accompanies Light, and even may assist him. Once Raye Penber has started following Light, Ryuk offers Light the Shinigami Eye deal. If Light takes the offer, Light can role check two players every night but he must kill one of those two players. If Light currently cannot kill with a Death Note, he cannot role check anyone. Because the Eye Deal cuts his lifespan, all votes against Light in lynches will be doubled for the remainder of the game. If Light refuses the Eye Deal, he still may change his mind and accept it later at any time.

Misa Amane (Second Kira) – A famous model whose parents were murdered by a man that Kira kills with his Death Note, Misa becomes infatuated with Kira and makes desperate moves to meet him. She thereafter becomes Light’s girlfriend, incredibly complacent to his demands. Gains BTSC with Rem when she receives her Death Note. At some point, she gains a Death Note. Once she starts killing, she may send a message to Light every night, and her kill fails automatically if she uses it against him. She stops at nothing to gain Light’s attention, and at some point may gain permanent BTSC with him. Because of a romantic rivalry with Kiyomi Takada, her vote is worth 3 if she ever votes for Takada. At any time, Misa may forfeit ownership of her Death Note. If she does so, she cannot use a Death Note for the remainder of the game, but for the subsequent three days she cannot be lynched.

Rem – A shinigami who appears to Misa after she discovers her Death Note, Rem accompanies Misa and guards her at any cost. As a shinigami, she cannot be harmed by humans, nor can she be seen by humans who have not made contact with her Death Note. Gains BTSC with Misa Amane when she gives her the Death Note. Because she is a shinigami, votes by humans in lynches do not affect her, and writing her name down in a Death Note will not kill her. Thus, she cannot be lynched or night killed. However, if she is about to be killed for the second time, although she will still not die, her existence will be made aware to everyone, outing her. Even before giving the Death Note to Misa, she knows Misa’s identity. In addition, if Misa is targeted for a night kill before Misa gains her Death Note, Rem absorbs the kill automatically, ensuring Misa's survival. Certain events must occur before she will give up her Death Note to Misa. Once she does so, Rem serves as Misa's guardian, doing anything she can to protect her. If she ever feels Misa is being threatened, Rem may write down the name of a human in her Death Note at any time, killing them regardless of whether they cannot be lynched or night killed; however, if she does so, she will also die. If Misa ever dies, Rem retreats to the Shinigami Realm, leaving the game. When Higuchi starts killing, Rem gains BTSC with him, losing it with Misa, and also with Light and Ryuk, if she had previously gained it. She may regain BTSC with her former BTSCmate(s) and lose it with Higuchi under certain circumstances. Immediately as she gains BTSC with Misa, Rem offers her the Shinigami Eye deal. If Misa takes the Shinigami Eye deal, Misa can role check two players every night but she or Light must kill one of those two players. If neither of them can currently kill with a Death Note, she cannot role check anyone. Because the Eye Deal cuts her lifespan, all votes against Misa in lynches will be doubled for the remainder of the game. If Misa refuses the Eye Deal, she still may change her mind and accept it later at any time. Rem offers this same deal to Higuchi when he gains a Death Note.

Teru Mikami (X Kira) – As a devoted worshiper of Kira, Mikami has a strong sense of justice and feels evil absolutely must be punished. He adheres to a very strict, daily schedule. If a certain chain of events occurs, Mikami gains a Death Note. At this time, he is offered the Shinigami Eye Deal. If Mikami takes the Eye Deal, he can role check two players every night but he must kill one of those two players. If Mikami currently cannot kill with a Death Note, he cannot role check anyone. Because the Eye Deal cuts his lifespan, all votes against Mikami in lynches will be doubled for the remainder of the game. If Mikami refuses the Eye Deal, he still may change his mind and accept it later at any time. At some point, he gains BTSC with Kiyomi Takada. At this time, per Light's orders, he creates a fake Death Note. If Mikami is ever found by Near, Near finds the fake Death Note, delaying Near's capture of Mikami for an additional two cycles.

Kiyomi Takada – Classmate and former girlfriend of Light Yagami, Takada becomes the official spokeswoman for Kira if Demegawa dies. Like Demegawa, she may only be Kira's spokeswoman after L has died. If Mikami starts killing, she gains BTSC with both Light and Mikami separately, facilitating communication among the three of them. Because of a romantic rivalry with Misa Amane, her vote is worth 3 if she ever votes for Misa. If she has become Kira's spokeswoman, every night she can force one player to vote the way she wishes the subsequent day.

Oh Jesus...

Well, I'm sorry we didn't kill TH, but it's nice to know a little bit more about where he stands. Good info for the future.

Only 12 votes in with less than an hour to go.

Spacedaisy wrote:I have to vote now. I'm thinking after considering the options that I am going to vote for TH ad week. I don't feel comfortable thinking he might be a baddie pulling some really ballsy play to appear like a shinigami. Voting TH now.

Is it ad week already?

Epignosis wrote:Leonard Nimoy died at 83.

I saw that. Very sad.

FZ. wrote:I'm sorry for just voting and leaving for the day, but that's what I can do.

I'm going with BR, for the reasons I posted above.

I appreciate you putting some new names on the table, FZ. I'll have to think about them, because I haven't much yet.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote: No kidding. Besides, how could you tell the difference between someone who is bad and "wants to look helpful" and someone who is good and "wants to look helpful"? Are detectives not allowed to look helpful in this game? I guess a civvie would say, "Ooh a puzzle, better not help because that would make me look bad because it makes me look good?" I hope that didn't happen. I really do.

Also, DP makes me mad. I don't care if this is his regular game. His regular game is stupid. Play or don't. If he chooses not to play, then I want to lynch him.
On a scale of one to ten, how much better off are the detectives for having spent all those pages on the puzzle?

Regarding DP, that's why we added the participation score. It will catch up to him.
Time != pages.

It does for people trying to catch up and read the thread.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Sidebar, and this probably isn't the right place to suggest this, but I think the site could use a "playful teasing" color tag, like off-topic or sarc orange, to distinguish when somebody's just having a bit of lighthearted good-natured fun. I think a lot of these types of comments tend to get misinterpreted over the interwebz.
This is a good suggestion, TH. Very true, over the internet, and especially in a game designed around deception and accusations, content and tone can be easily misunderstood. Will mull over this.

Isn't that why we have emoticons? Not a fan of more colors.

Zomberella12 wrote: No kidding. Besides, how could you tell the difference between someone who is bad and "wants to look helpful" and someone who is good and "wants to look helpful"? Are detectives not allowed to look helpful in this game? I guess a civvie would say, "Ooh a puzzle, better not help because that would make me look bad because it makes me look good?" I hope that didn't happen. I really do.

Also, DP makes me mad. I don't care if this is his regular game. His regular game is stupid. Play or don't. If he chooses not to play, then I want to lynch him.

On a scale of one to ten, how much better off are the detectives for having spent all those pages on the puzzle?

Regarding DP, that's why we added the participation score. It will catch up to him.

For what it's worth, I agree with you about DP, Bea. I used to always gun for him because of his absenteeism, but it seems like generally participates more as mafia than as civ.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:10 minutes. Not bad. I'm gonna go watch some Youtubes. I wonder if Netflix will release House Of Cards at midnight.
How is that show, by the way?

Amazing. For someone who lives in DC, it is one of the best.

I like "The Aces Smiley Theorem." I wish I had thought of it.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:My vote was impulsive.

Epi raises a good point that Kira could kill any one of us at any time, so I think I will join you.

*votes TH*

Epignosis wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:If I vote to lynch DharmaHelper, will anyone support me?
I'm not sold on him yet, personally.
Why not?

He just doesn't feel bad to me. Your feud with him feels like two type-A civs clashing. You may be right, but I can't see it.

Epignosis wrote:If I vote to lynch DharmaHelper, will anyone support me?

I'm not sold on him yet, personally.

AceofSpaces wrote:Has Made posted at all during this day cycle? I don't think he has.

Can you blame him?

I am glad we're talking about lynches now, but find it rather remarkable that everyone except AceofSpaces came in soliciting the opinions of others rather than putting forth their own.

Nice job for taking a stand, AceofSpaces, although I disagree with you.

Matahari wrote: I see you misunderstand my post. I'm thinking of voting him. But- I don't want to do something without some convo first. Why do you think he is posting the way he is? I find it to be very, "I don't care if I get votes" type of posting.

I think h is posting the way he is:
1) to amuse himself
2) to clog up the thread with unproductive chatter
3) to be able to say "look, I'm participating!"
4) for additional reasons known only to himself

Matahari wrote:I reread TH today. 23 pages of one-liners (and most of them made me laugh), but at least he was consistent. No change that I could see from day 1 (when he wasn't the first voter) to day 2&3, when he was the first. That doesn't make him bad, and it doesn't lay claim to civvie-ness either. (I believe that word can be found in the mafia dictionary, it replaced townie-ness)

I do think he has been inviting votes though. Its almost like he has either been daring people to vote him, or inviting them. Maybe he can't be lynched, or maybe he achieves something if he gets the majority of votes.

Or maybe he has a new play style, but I doubt it. I'd appreciate some comments on the above graph, though.

Maybe if we vote for him, he will explode and kill the people who voted for him. Maybe he is not really TH at all, but a secret ghost-sock account masquerading as him. Maybe the world will end tomorrow.

Maybe we should spend less time inventing hypothetical reasons not to vote for someone who is acting suspicious.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:The next installment of Snowman's Note will begin on Night 4.
Addendum:

I have a bit more time to start this now, and I thought I'd ask the thread.

So, folks, want to concentrate purely on lynch discussion today or do you want me to provide the next installment of Snowman's Note as well?
Next installment please.

Turnip Head wrote:I think we could use a good distraction

Did I miss where MM explained his vote for TH? He's another one I think fits the distraction/LC murder criterion.

Zomberella12 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:Well, this note from Snowman is a pretty big deal. It tells us that there are players out there who can win just by leading lynches against anyone. I agree that MM, TH, and Llama could all fit in to this category. Does this bother anyone else?
If you're worried about me leading lynches, then why don't you lead one?
I did tons of work on the Snowman lynch. But that doesn't really have anything to do with your voting history. What about DP, Bass, Made, and Russ? Don't they need to help too?

I thought your accusation was that I might win by leading lynches. If you believe that, you should be trying to prevent me from leading lynches, rather than encouraging me as you have been doing.

@Bea: I would remember what Epi said about who would kill LC and SVS, and cross reference that with the people who want to talk about everything other than a lynch. I think TH falls squarely into that category. Boo might as well. DH might as well. Rico has been distracting, but is too new, in my opinion, to go after LC.

I have extremely bad feels about Zombrella, but again, I hesitate, because I don't think LC would have been her first choice to kill.

bea wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I dislike this puzzle. No one is talking about who we should lynch, and I think that is a problem.

I agree.

Is there anyone else besides TH that you would be willing to look at today?

I'm cooking dinner now -but TH feels like a rats nest I don't have time to dive into.

If there are other people on your list, I'd be happy to look at them.

It's not about who I want to look at. I've been looking at people, and I've mentioned most of them in the thread. I think TH is bad and will probably vote for him.

You and FZ and Zombrella seems very interested in swaying me to vote for someone else. Who do you want me to vote for and why? I know who I want to vote for. If you want me to do otherwise, the burden is on you to convince me.

Zomberella12 wrote:Well, this note from Snowman is a pretty big deal. It tells us that there are players out there who can win just by leading lynches against anyone. I agree that MM, TH, and Llama could all fit in to this category. Does this bother anyone else?

If you're worried about me leading lynches, then why don't you lead one?

Zomberella12 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Zomberella12 wrote: @ Llama, what's the rush? We still have one more day. Plus, the puzzle isn't nothing, it triggers an event/secret or whatever. Plus, it's fun.
Because waiting to discuss lynches until the last minute always results in bad outcomes.

I think I'll vote TH just for that mammoth, obnoxious post.
Noted.

Are there any low posters that you would consider voting for? I want to win, but I also want to play. TH writes lots of posts and that makes the game more fun.
And more difficult for people to follow.
True....

I don't think I'm interested in lynching low posters today unless you can give me a good reason why I should. I've put my opinions about who should be lynched out there. I'd like to hear others now, rather than have people keep asking me to evaluate other people for them.

Zomberella12 wrote: @ Llama, what's the rush? We still have one more day. Plus, the puzzle isn't nothing, it triggers an event/secret or whatever. Plus, it's fun.

Because waiting to discuss lynches until the last minute always results in bad outcomes.

I think I'll vote TH just for that mammoth, obnoxious post.

FZ. wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I dislike this puzzle. No one is talking about who we should lynch, and I think that is a problem.
I agree, which is why I'm trying to talk about it. Did you read what I said about TH? Do you have any other player in mind for a lynch?

Not really, although it's tempting to look at other aggressive puzzle workers, since they are distracting from the real business at hand. I suspected Ricochet once. I can't remember why now.

I dislike this puzzle. No one is talking about who we should lynch, and I think that is a problem.

The high speed llama chase that just went down in Arizona is - without exaggeration - THE best thing I have ever seen, and probably ever will see. I can die happy.

Turnip Head wrote:
thellama73 wrote:1. No, I changed my opinion once. You changed your opinion multiples times back and forth. Not the same thing.
Okay, but what random determinant are you using that makes what you did cool, and what I did suspicious?

Because it makes sense to think about something, and later change your mind. It makes less sense to flip back and forth four times within a short timespan.

Ricochet wrote:Why did you vote early again, TH? And why did you vote Epig, if you said you'll consider voting Made, at the start of the day? Sorry if I missed you answering to somebody else.

linki @ Llama: have you read Takada's revealed secrets? can you not make some assumptions based on that for Demegawa/Snowman?

I think it's dangerous to assume the baddies never have any way of finding each other. I am not comfortable with that assumption.

Turnip Head wrote:Also:
thellama73 wrote:This puzzle is fun and all, but who are we lynching today? My vote goes to Turnip Head for these reasons:
1. Excessive flip-flopping and trying to seem easy to please on Day 0.
But you did the same thing
thellama73 wrote:2. Repeated reactionary, unexplained early votes.
But you've done the same thing
thellama73 wrote:3. Vocal defense of and apologism for Snowman, who was bad.
But no one knew Snowman's identity and I wasn't the only one who defended him

1. No, I changed my opinion once. You changed your opinion multiples times back and forth. Not the same thing.
2. No, I explained my votes. You didn't.
3. I am unwilling to make the assumption that no one knew Snowman's identity.

Ricochet wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
thellama73 wrote:3. Vocal defense of and apologism for Snowman, who was bad.
He had more than one defender, and probably no teammates who knew his identity
I'm not willing to make that assumption.
Why?

My position on assumptions is well-documented.

Turnip Head wrote:
thellama73 wrote:3. Vocal defense of and apologism for Snowman, who was bad.
He had more than one defender, and probably no teammates who knew his identity

I'm not willing to make that assumption.

This puzzle is fun and all, but who are we lynching today? My vote goes to Turnip Head for these reasons:
1. Excessive flip-flopping and trying to seem easy to please on Day 0.
2. Repeated reactionary, unexplained early votes.
3. Vocal defense of and apologism for Snowman, who was bad.

I'll pull quotes when I get home from work if people think that would help.

Turnip Head wrote:I think we should agree as a group right here right now, that if the Snowman's Note series ends up becoming this sprawling epic saga of pointless puzzles, a colossal waste of our time, that we're unanimously lynching him on Day 1 next time

linki: Snowman, goddamnit...

Why is this is sarcastic orange? I agree completely with it.

Epignosis wrote:I think that, right now, only Light is killing.

Only Long Con and S~V~S have died. They are experienced players who can be on point (and, in other contexts, completely off the mark).

If one were to operate under the assumption that someone who knew them well kill themed, I think that would leave off Made, Ricochet and Zomberella.

Where that gets tricky is that Kira has BTSC with one other person.

I have to think more.

This is a good point. There is a big part of me that wants to lynch Zombrella today (she's setting off my ping-o-matic something fierce) but she is not lkely to have picked those two for a kill, so I have to rethink. Turnip Head still looks pretty good.

If you ~e~~ the entire s~~~~

or, they are not

keep s~~ing these and you can learn

I bet you anything the word after "are" is "not".

Turnip Head wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:1-1 2-1.
1-2?
2-2.
2-3...

Yeah, that one I have no idea about at all.

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