The Syndicate

Okay, I've been thinking about the situation with Ambray and me. Here's my analysis of the possibilities.

Possibility One: We are both baddies.

Possibility Two: One of us is good and the other bad.

Possibility Three: We are both good, but one of us has received false info.

I don't think Possibility One is tenable (in fact, I know it to be false, since I know I am good), so I am going to discard that if you don't mind. Since we don't know whether Possibility Two or Three is the case, let's say it is a fifty-fifty chance. Therefore, if you lynch one of use, there is a 75% chance you will get a civvie. If the happens, the other will be implicated as a liar, and you will have little choice but to go after them the following day, regardless of whether Possibility Two or Three is actually the case.

Peruing this avenue leads to:
a 25% percent chance of lynching one baddie.
a 25% chance of lynching a civvie, followed by a baddie
and a 50% chance of lynching two civvies.

Those are not good odds. Given that there are at least two other baddies hiding among the other players, I think it makes much more sense to go after them than to come after Ambray and me, even if one of us turns out to be bad, which I doubt.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:I was also joking, hence the winky.

Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.

I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.

You do realize this is a ballsy move on both your and Ambray's parts, correct? Because if one of you is incorrect here, you are going so very down.

I'm very well aware of this, which is why I think we are both probably on the side of good, but one of us has bad info.

I was also joking, hence the winky.

Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.

I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.

MovingPictures07 wrote:How about Stevie NKs BWT?

Lol.

How about stop having terrible ideas.

[quote="MovingPictures07"

thellama73 wrote: He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.

Who is then?[/quote]

I don't know. I think all the baddies including Hero are hiding among the quiet people, though.

Ambray wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.

I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.

And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?

Yes.

He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.

Ambray wrote:Well I personally throw the SK in with the baddies, so....

As do I.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Here's a thought. I think all of us engaged in this argument are probably civvies who have been duped in some way. Maybe we should focus on the people being quiet. (SE, DP, Boogs, BF)

You don't think Ambray is lying?

I have no idea. I said I thought she was suspicious, but your spirited defense of her made me doubt myself so much that I can't tell anymore. My instinct now is that the baddies are all keeping their traps shut, laughing their heads off, tears streaming down their fat faces at the confusion they have sown.

Here's a thought. I think all of us engaged in this argument are probably civvies who have been duped in some way. Maybe we should focus on the people being quiet. (SE, DP, Boogs, BF)

I guess we will find out who is lying after the next lynch.

Ambray wrote: So I'm going to continue railroading BWT.

And I will continue defending him! I would even believe MP was bad before I believed it of BWT.

Ambray wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Did anyone notice anything in Snow Dog's posts? He was a role block after all.

The only thing I recall is that he did ask me TWICE about SE. But he didn't seem too sure about that.

SE is another person I want to look at. They brought me up serveral times then voted someone else. I thought that was strange.

SE has been rather quiet and voted for He-man, who I think is civvie, and russ and me, who I know are civvie. I definitely would be open to looking at him.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Do you have reason beyond anything stated at any point in this thread in that assumption?

You don't have to elaborate more than that, and you shouldn't, but I need to at least know that.

Yes.

Ambray wrote: You think BWT is civvie?

Yes.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Are you confident I'm off base?

Yes.

MovingPictures07 wrote:BWT is Hero then. He has to be. Unless there's something else going on here.

There is definitely something else going on here. I realize that your play style involves making very confident deductions, but you are sometimes off base, as you are here.

Well I am thoroughly confused.

Ambray wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

Ambray wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:How can you think you knew how you survived? This isn't right.

You're hinting you protected me.

The villager could have protected you as well.

I doubt it, or I would have had more support.

But the villager doesn't know who he is protecting. Could have been pure chance.

Ambray wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:How can you think you knew how you survived? This isn't right.

You're hinting you protected me.

The villager could have protected you as well.

I don't know why people are saying we only have one more day to kill a baddie. There are currently nine civvies left and three baddies. If we get two kills tonight, and if they are both civvies, it will be seven to three. Then the night after that, five to three. That's assuming Hero never kills a baddie by mistake. I think this thing is far from over.

I think Roxy is very unlikely to be on the baddie team, because she voted for Epi on day one when he just barely got the most votes. I don't think a member of his team would do that. I guess she could be Hero though, although I don't get that impression from her.

He uses inappropriate language and all my other suspicions have flown out the window. Good enough?

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:

Kate wrote:

DisgruntledPorcupine wrote:Crap.

My bad. :P

Can we please lynch DP now like I wanted to the first two days?

EBWOP: FOUR times in a row

You are wrong, MP. As for me, I am willing to trust you about Ambray, which means all my suspicions were wrong. I will therefore be returning to my roots, looking at low posters and particularly Boogs, who has now voted for a civvie for times in a row.

Oh expletive deleted. I expect this will be my last day with you all. I'm really sorry, Snowy.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Oh man, this could be bad. Let's hope it's not.

I REALLY hope it isn't, because if SNowie comes up civvie, I will have a very hard time surviving the next day.

Well there goes that idea. Thanks a lot, rey. :P

there are five of you left to vote. You could still get BF.

btw, is Ambray silenced today? Conspicuous silence.

wow, this one is really down to the wire. Don't lynch me please! Everyone else has really made a good case for themselves, but I KNOW I am not bad.

S~V~S wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Can someone explain exactly I am so suspicious? SVS keeps putting words in my mouth and creating straw man arguments against me. I can't really figure out the determination of some to kill me off.

Um, I stopped suspecting you days ago, after Epi was lynched. You need to move forward. I believe it is others who are putting words in your mouth, not me. I have not made an argument against you in days. But is you keep saying crap like this, I might start again.

I'm sorry if I misrepresented you. I was referring to your apparent annoyance at me not following you vote and asking about my concern over Mp's defense of Ambray when there was no concern. Hope that clears up what I meant.

Can someone explain exactly I am so suspicious? SVS keeps putting words in my mouth and creating straw man arguments against me. I can't really figure out the determination of some to kill me off.

[quote="Snow Dog"]No one seems convinced Llama is civ./quote]

I am!

EBWOP: Okay, I am a LITTLE concerned given thta I have one vote and MP is indicating that he will give me another. But that's concern of a different nature than what you were talking about.

S~V~S wrote:I really don't either, other than that he is the civvie protector, and he protected her.

But why are you concerned? You voted for Snow Dog, not Ambray.

I'm not concerned. I just would like to figure it out so I know for sure whether my suspicion of Ambray is unfounded.

I'm trying to figure out if there's anyway MP could have certain knowledge about Ambray's role. He seems so sure that I feel like he's hinting at us, but looking at the roles I can't see any way he could learn such a thing.

reywaS wrote: I've been suspicious of llama since day one, and he hasn't done anything to ease my suspicions.

What would you have me do?

Seek out some wealthy patron and crawl like a clinging vine up the lordly tree? Rising by deceit and trickery instead of my own strength?
No thank you.

Imitate what others do and dedicate my works to the rich in the hope of arousing a smile of recognition from some sterile face?
No thank you.

Breakfast everyday on insults, wear our my knees and warp my spine with endless bowing and groveling in the dust?
No thank you.

Become a master of hypocrisy and opportunism? Never letting my right hand know what my left is doing? Burn incense for some glorified idol of the day, pull the proper strings?
No thank you.

Shall I become the captain of some literary cult by writing stupid love songs for wealthy widows and navigate to success with their sighs filing out my sails? Pay some publisher to print my poems and bribe some critic to review them?
No, thank you!

Shall I become the high priest of a petty group of hack writers who dine together once a week?
No, I thank you!

Shall I build my reputation on one flawless poem and never write another, should I scheme to get my name mentioned in the columns of some newspaper and smack my lips over little praises written about me?
No, thank you.

Shall I calculate and scheme, live in fear, make visits instead of rhymes, meet all the right people, seek introductions and favors?
No, thank you.
No I thank you . . .
And again, I thank you!

Oh my friend, I prefer to sing, to laugh, to dream, to travel light in my own way to see things as they are, and speak out without fear, to cock my hat at any angle that I choose, to duel if necessary for a quick "yes" or "no." I prefer to work alone without any thought of reward, to scorn fame for a journey to the moon. Never write a line that does not ring with sincerity. I shall be content with the fruits and flowers that grow in my garden, no matter how small, because they belong to me. Then if success should come my way, no tribute ever need be paid to Caesar, whatever fortune or misfortune that happens shall be mine and only mine.

And although I may never reach the stature of a great oaken tree, I shall never be a parasitic vine. I will climb perhaps to no great height, but I will . . . climb . . . alone.

But seriously, folks. Just reread BF. Honestly, the only thing that struck me in his posts was the idea that the lynch switch was really vote manipulation, which was very unlikely. His voting record is bad though, so I remain on the fence. If I suspected everyone who thinks I'm a baddie, I'd have to vote for everyone!

blindfaeth wrote:i dont even know what ennui means lol. hope its not a bad word, if so, shame on me, I'll wash my mouth out with soap.

Poor vocabulary=baddie!

MovingPictures07 wrote:

blindfaeth wrote:Eh, I'm gonna vote Ambray, because DP and Roxy both have lightly mentioned me and they are thinking about voting snow dog. If they're wrong about me maybe they're wrong about him too.

Definitely, and we should trade sometime

Did this ping the crap out of anyone else or just me, by the way? Man, this is pingy. I'm going to go back and re-read BF and then the other three now. Be back shortly.

BF hasn't been pinging me too much, but I was just looking at the voting record and he is one of the few who has voted for a confirmed civvie two out of three days. Definitely worth a look. (for the purposes of this analysis, I am counting myself as a confirmed civvie)

S~V~S wrote:

thellama73 wrote:While I don't trust Ambray, I also don't want to be led into a bandwagon by someone I also don't really trust, so I am voting Snow Dog.

LOL, really? Then, no one can ever read me ha ha. You said you were waffly on me, now you are suspecting me enough again that you don't want to vote for the person you have said is very suspect to you cause I did?

I think Snow Dog is more likely baddie than Ambray, so I wanted to vote for him anyway. I will be happy if either one ends up getting lynched because I think both will probably flip bad, but just in case, I am hedging my bets and voting my conscience. I didn't want to be led against my instincts, and especially not by you, who I am indeed waffly on. I don't see what's so funny about that.

While I don't trust Ambray, I also don't want to be led into a bandwagon by someone I also don't really trust, so I am voting Snow Dog.

So do you think the three remaining baddies are me, MP and Ambray, then, SVS? I really think the assertion that MP has been recruited upon resurrection is a long shot. If the cow did not resurrect MP and it was a rogue secret or something, wouldn't the cow then be very vocal about MP? Unless you are the cow and doing exactly that? Hm.

MovingPictures07 wrote: Why Ambray and SVS, care to elaborate?

SVS is more of a hunch than anything else. Her doggedness in going after me early in the thread struck me as odd, but I also have a hard time imagining thta a baddie would expose herself so. I am just not sure.

Ambray pings me by her attack on BWT. After examining his posts, I have become firmly convinced that BWT is civvie, and I don't see why she would think otherwise.

Assuming Epi and Elohcin were both bad,and assuming the wolves are good (or at least not actively working against the civvies, which I think is reasonable) we have three people left to lynch. My top three candidates, in order, are Snow Dog, Ambray and S~V~S. I might well be wrong, especially about SVS, as it is hard to get a read from some of the less active players like DP.

I am planning to vote for Snow Dog today unless someone or something changes my mind. I also welcome any thorough analysis of my posts, as I believe I have been consistent and logical throughout.

Snow Dog wrote:Hi everyone. Im back. need to do some catching up.

Oh good, you're back in time for us to lynch you.

Seriously, though. I'm glad you're feeling better.

S~V~S wrote: Linki@ Llama~ baddies have been known to self insanify, that does not clear someone. But tbh, he is reading fairly pretty on the level to me

I realize that but taken with the rest of the evidence I posted it either indicates civvieness or a REALLY elaborate ruse. I tend to think it's the former.

MovingPictures07 wrote: As to those who've said they've been reading BWT as civvie, why?

1. He voted for Snow Dog on day one, and I think Snow Dog is bad.
2. He pushed for Epi being lynched on day two over the other names mentioned.
3. He as insanified.
4. He stood up for Russ' ability to logically deduce Epi's role, even though he did end up voting for Russ in the end.

Is it possible this is a very clever camouflage? Yes, but I think it is unlikely. I also agree with SE that Ambray's insistence that he is bad is a bit pingy.

MovingPictures07 wrote:And what about llama?

I think that guy is definitely on the level.

It occurs to me that Snow Dog is sick and hence absent. If he is Herobrine, it would make sense that he wouldn't have killed last night. Also, I just reread BWT and he comes across as civvie to me.