The Syndicate

Elohcin wrote:
thellama73 wrote:It just occurred to me. Why is Guess Who followed by a question mark? It's not a question, it's an imperative. It should be Guess Who! And your husband is an English teacher.
I guess because the original game had it that way. But you are right. Now it makes me want to change the banners, but I will refrain. They took me two hours this morning (Again, Paint. I really need to learn how to use a more efficient program.)

Photoshop is just for lazy people who are not good at Paint. Paint is awesome.

Golden wrote: We didn't overthink. That's why llama called the night kills boring

Partially that, and partially just to annoy you guys. I hope it worked.

It just occurred to me. Why is Guess Who followed by a question mark? It's not a question, it's an imperative. It should be Guess Who! And your husband is an English teacher.

Ricochet wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Ricochet wrote:If I wouldn't have been a victim of it, all the WIFOM killing spree would have, in principle, made me doubt a bit that Llama is doing it on purpose and that someone else (like Epi ) is messing with it, if only he wouldn't continued to do scummy things, like bantering about how the kills are oh so lame. I've never seen him ever make such comments in previous games (where he was civ or indie all the time) and it kept my belief, even from the sidelines, that he has to be bad all the way until he flipped.

Anyway, all of this is perfect WIFOM material for a future game... whichever future game, which is simply ironic.
Thank God llama and I are hosting the next two.
Speaking of which, will people please sign up for Frisky Dingo? It's taking forever.
Since you didn't actually kill me here, I will probably eventually sign up.

I know, right? I was actually on your side! Weird.

Epignosis wrote:
Ricochet wrote:If I wouldn't have been a victim of it, all the WIFOM killing spree would have, in principle, made me doubt a bit that Llama is doing it on purpose and that someone else (like Epi ) is messing with it, if only he wouldn't continued to do scummy things, like bantering about how the kills are oh so lame. I've never seen him ever make such comments in previous games (where he was civ or indie all the time) and it kept my belief, even from the sidelines, that he has to be bad all the way until he flipped.

Anyway, all of this is perfect WIFOM material for a future game... whichever future game, which is simply ironic.
Thank God llama and I are hosting the next two.

Speaking of which, will people please sign up for Frisky Dingo? It's taking forever.

Ricochet wrote:If I wouldn't have been a victim of it, all the WIFOM killing spree would have, in principle, made me doubt a bit that Llama is doing it on purpose and that someone else (like Epi ) is messing with it, if only he wouldn't continued to do scummy things, like bantering about how the kills are oh so lame. I've never seen him ever make such comments in previous games (where he was civ or indie all the time) and it kept my belief, even from the sidelines, that he has to be bad all the way until he flipped.

Anyway, all of this is perfect WIFOM material for a future game... whichever future game, which is simply ironic.

I like to keep people guessing.

Epignosis wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I told you Golden was Mafia! I'm really surprised about Epi though.
Dude, you had us feeling RUINED. We thought you had info on Golden the entire time, and we strove to lynch you anyway, knowing we would have to deal with the fallout.

Then you posted that you never got a question and we were like, "OH THANK GOD."

I was certain that you would never have allowed such obvious NKs. I see I misunderestimated you again.

I told you Golden was Mafia! I'm really surprised about Epi though.

Elohcin wrote:
- "I think Llama is bad (I know I pick on llama a lot) b/c I asked the host if a member of the mafia has a mustache and llama has one." That is a no no.

I'm just disappointed I never got to ask the host a question about the mafia. Where's the trust, guys?

Thanks, Eloh, for a really fun game! Good luck, civs!

nijuukyugou wrote:Been traveling all day and thankfully remembered to check this game! Back with a vote in a few.

Any idea who you are going to vote for? (hint: not me.)

Epignosis wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'll vote either llama or nijuu. I predict they are the final two.
You waiting to see how nijuu will vote?
Now that you have voted, I will vote for you, and complete my master plan!

This is a much better master plan than voting for me.

Epignosis wrote:Back. Beer and dirt acquired.

More things I've noticed:

thellama73 wrote: Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73
This was after DDL got lynched, which nijuu happened to miss. Notice something funny about that list? Here:

thellama73 wrote: Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73
I searched llama's posts using "nijuu," "ninja," and "blooper," and the only mention or interaction whatsoever is this:

thellama73 wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:Catching up. Stand by.
You're the best, Blooper.
That's it.

thellama73 has no qualms voting off low-participators. He voted for Turnip Head. He voted for Missing Person. He wanted to lynch Hedgeowl. Yet no mention of nijuukyugou, who has 12 posts and one missing vote, and is the only living person in his green span (haha, that's an economics joke).

I'm not sure what your point is. I don't suspect Nijuu. I think she is fairly obviously civ. I also don't think she is that much of a non-participant compared to someone like Hedgeowl or Turnip Head.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote: Linki: Llama, are you mafia?
I'm actually not, believe it or not. But Golden is.
I won't deny that I think he is.

I don't believe you. You now have Golden, myself, and Epignosis who have posted cases against you today, and you have not acknowledged any of them. Instead, you are waiting for one-liners to respond to. There are 6 players (if my math is correct) that want you dead today, so I believe you are a baddie, and helping to protect your last baddie mate.

But, You and Golden are suddenly going after each other today too. You haven't mentioned Golden since early on, and I don't think Golden had a read on you either way before today. I see this as hardcore distancing. Golden even said he wishes he had moved his vote. I doubt it's true. Why would he have voted so early for me if he was really that suspicious of you?

I acknowledged your cases. Epi's is based on my enemies slowly dying off, saying that I would think it was funny. Maybe I would. But those deaths are equally consistent with a mafia that is boringly and obviously setting me up. I am mocking their kills because I think they are bad kill choices, and because it amuses me to taunt the mafia.

Your case is mainly based on me changing my opinions of people, which in a short game like this with not a lot of vote history, is a perfectly natural thing to do. Black Rock seems to really believe I am mafia, which she wouldnt if she were mafia herself. Hedgeowl came across similarly, although I'm still not sure about her. I suspect Golden early on, then pursued other avenues, but now his actions plus the process of elimination have brought him back to the top of my list.

For Black Rock, lynching me is win-win, because even if I flip civ, the incentive for the mafia to keep killing my enemies at night is gone. Her head is probably next on the chopping block.

Just trust me, you guys. Lynch Golden. I'm not distancing. I'm hunting.

MM< you're right about how Rico and I usually go after each other.Oddly, this is the first game I played with him where I really did think he was civilian. It's certainly possible that a mafia Llama might kill off all my enemies, but I'd like to think I have a reputation as a more subtle player than that.

Metalmarsh89 wrote: Linki: Llama, are you mafia?

I'm actually not, believe it or not. But Golden is.

Black Rock wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Black Rock wrote:
thellama73 wrote:You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.
I really pleased that people are still unable to read me after all this time.
If you flip civ I might kick you.

Start lacing up your big girl boots.

Black Rock wrote:
thellama73 wrote:You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

You are so bad.

I really pleased that people are still unable to read me after all this time.

You guys are fun. Don't lynch me, k?

Meh, I decided that defensive voting is for cowards. If I get lynched, I want to go out in a blaze of glory, tilting ferociously at those lovely windmills.

I'm voting for Golden for three reasons.
1. The itiming of his Day 1 vote looked like an effort to protect DDL to me.
2. I believe Spacedaisy was engaging in high-level distancing when she attacked him. Her attacks came when either she or her teammate were in troble.
3. He expressed suspicion of me, but voted for MM anyway, early and a bit of a throwaway. I believe he did this because I am more suspected by the thread in general, and therefore more useful for a mafia member to keep around, and because it keeps his hands clean of my innocent blood should I actually get lynched.

Oh, and I almost forgot. A Golden lynch gives me Mafia Bingo.

Golden wrote: I do feel like you have played up such an obvious baddie game that the thread as a whole was against you.

Do you think I tend to play obvious baddie games when I am actually a baddie?

Golden wrote:And I'll just say that I didn't see llamas post before responding to BR.

Llama, I'm really not sure how to respond to what you are saying. Yes, you did make that point against me. I asked you to read back. You did and said it somewhat lessened your suspicion of me. The reason you felt better about me is because I spent half of day one saying I would vote for MP if he didn't put an avatar up and that is exactly what I did.

There was no way for me to make that vote look good - nowhere I could have placed it except on DDL who I didn't really have any suspicion of at that time. The only thing I could have done to avoid it looking bad is to have voted earlier - which I could not have done AND been fair in waiting for MP to post an avatar. I want you to tell me what you think a GOOD vote would look like for me, lets say in the circumstance MP posted an avatar with ten minutes to go? Do you really think there is such a thing?

As for the daisy stuff - what can I say? I thought Daisy's vote for me was completely out of left field, it came as a shock to me, but it turned out she had called me her 'second biggest suspect' right back at the start, something I hadn't even noticed. Her suspicion of me clearly wasn't genuine (it never felt genuine to me) and I thought and still do think it points to her being teammates with MM. Any suspicion can look like distancing if you squint hard enough.

But - you watched me play and distance from people in economics. I never defended them, and I got on the bus as soon as I could. I didn't want to leave threads for people to tug on. Can you honestly say my game here looks like that? I spent the whole first day more or less defending DDL (he reminded me of econ DDL), only to cast a vote that potentially could have helped outright save him. I then would have had to bus him late, and then I voted off Daisy when she was going down...

I'm not the droid you are looking for. If you are actually not bad, read back again, and think about it.

linki @llama - you are keeping much closer tabs on who you expect to vote for you than I am. I wasn't counting votes when I said I expect you to be lynched. But, I feel like I've been harping on about MM all game and no-one is listening, so my perspective is much more 'I don't expect people to listen and follow me in an MM vote'.

This is a great defense, and I acknowledge there's no good way for you to defend against the reasons I suspect you. Them's the breaks sometimes.

I may follow your MetalMarsh vote if other people listen to Black Rock and I have to save myself. If that happens, I guess we will see if you were right or not. Otherwise, I'm voting for you.

Black Rock wrote: In this case, how would you know if he was going to throw away his vote or vote you. Curious.

I wouldn't know that. I just said I wouldn't.

Black Rock wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Golden wrote: He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.
Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

Is this why you killed Roxy?

Objection, leading the witness.

I didn't kill Roxy, but it is convenient insofar as it keeps me alive. I couldn't have known Golden would throw his vote away early though.

Golden wrote: He is the obvious choice, and the person who I expect to be lynched today, and I'm happy with that.

Why do you expect me to be lynched today? Only Black Rock, Hedgeowl,and you have expressed a wish to lynch me. You've wasted your vote early, Hedgeowl will miss the vote. That means I will take one vote and can save myself by piling onto your vote. Your story doesn't check out, Mafia Boy!

Spacedaisy's comments about Golden are very interesting. When DDL was up for a lynch, she placed a protest vote on Golden. When she was up for a lynch, she suggested we look at Golden after her demise. This is some high-level distancing. Maybe the mafia are not as inept as I thought.

Black Rock wrote:
Golden wrote:I'm also interested in MM's view of llama.

I think they are bad together.

I'm voting MM.
Why not Llama? He is the more obvious choice. You keep mentioning him but avoid voting him. I find that most curious.

Maybe because he is mafia and I am more convenient to keep around since people already want to kill me. I believe I called it.

thellama73 wrote:
G-Man wrote: First and foremost, let's talk about Golden. Our opinions of him seem to be polar opposites. Can you elaborate on why you think he is probably mafia even after his confrontation of Dragon yesterday?
I learned in Biblical Mafia that I do a lot better looking at the vote record than at what people say. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks bad. He put the third vote on Missing Person when Dragon had three votes. Granted, TH had four at that time, but I still think it looks bad. His Day 2 vote for Dragon came late enough to be potential underbusthrowery. Then again, I'm one to talk, since I voted even later than him. I just don't feel good about him right now.

The mafia killed Roxy? Boring. Predictable.

Come on, guys, are you even trying?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.
I suppose you are right.

There is a 50.0% chance that one baddie wants you dead and one doesn't.
There is a 41.7% chance that both baddies are in the group of 6 that do not suspect you.
There is a 8.3% chance that both baddies want you dead.

You must be a civilian right? There is a 20% chance that you are mafia and 80% chance you are not. The odds are in your favor.

I don't think it makes sense to apply probability to non-random events, like whether or not someone wants me dead, but if that is your support, I will take it!

Three people want me dead. Likely only one of them is bad. I'm pretty sure it isn't Roxy, so that leaves BR and Hedgebaddie.

I actually feel a little better about Hedgebaddie since she started posting, but on the other hand she has participated for the first time ONLY after I straight up threatened to vote for her, which looks bad to me. Also, her name is a dead giveaway.
I still think Black Rock looks pretty bad too, so I will have to choose between one of them tomorrow.

Yes, yes, three people keep saying they wouldn't mind seeing me lynched, but there has been very little talk of why. You don't like that I like to lynch non-participants, you don't like that I am a bit flippant, I get it. Those are emotional responses, not good reasons for a lynch.

Good thing I don't have to worry about you voting for me then, O for Four.

The last time you lynched me in a game, Roxy, I was a civilian. Does that make me more likely to be a civilian this game too?

Roxy wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

Gambler's fallacy.

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Anyone think Hedgebaddie will make the vote today?

I also don't think Roxy is very bad. I believe I am seeing Civ Roxy today.

nijuukyugou wrote:Catching up. Stand by.

You're the best, Blooper.

timmer wrote:
Golden wrote:Timmer, what is your view on llama?
I'm curious about his vows on Hedge. I could see a situation possible where Llama got to ask a question of the host, asked something like "is a baddie wearing a tiara?" And gor a yes. I could see that. Because all I see from hedges three posts is an absent player.

Apart from that I don't really have much in the way of thoughts.

Most importantly, I am going camping today for a few dais. I MAY have wifi there I'm not sure yet. For now though I am voting MP.

I'll join you. I need to make good on my promise from Day 1.

timmer wrote:Hmm, so that didn't take long, lol?

Three posts, every one of them apologizing for missing the vote. I'm not sure how I feel about this. I can see the logic that Hedge certainly should have realized the time constraints of a speed game after the first vote fail, and definitely after the second, but does that make her bad? That last vote in particular was close enough that I'd assume a baddie Hedge would have made an effort to get her vote in, so I read her posts as truly being absent, with a neutral alignment read.

llama, all things considered though, and with this game's particular nature, I'm interested to hear more from you about this.

Your points about both SD and DDL defending MP is very persuasive. I've been reading MP as civ, but this is good enough evidence to make me reconsider. I would be down for an MP lynch today.

timmer wrote:One thought about DDL. Early on in Day 1, he made a big point of denouncing the idea of voting for in actives, in particular he didn't like the thought of people voting for MP for the missing avatar etc. Would a baddie have defended in actives like that if no one on his team was inactive? I wonder if maybe not. And if not, could it be as simple as Missing Person being that teamie?

Could be! I'd rather kill a Hedgebaddie though.

Black Rock wrote:I just got home from work, I can participate with you Llama.

Who are you looking at this lynch?

I'm really in a Hedgeowl sort of mood. I am super unimpressed with this mafia. They are not voting to save their members and their kills are lame. I think there is at least one inactive or barely active player among them.

Also, Hedgebaddie is always bad.

Really? No one else? I see I haven't been lynching enough non-participants.

Elohcin wrote:
fingersplints has been put down by the mafia. It is now Day 4

My goodness what a boring choice. This mafia is running scared.

RIP Splints.

Black Rock wrote: Obviously you don't understand the context of the statement or you're just pretending you don't

Agree to disagree.

Roxy wrote:It also feels like you are slinging mud at BR for bs reasoning imo.

A lot of defending going on around here. I don't feel good enough about almost anyone to defend them.

Black Rock wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Great work on Spacedaisy, gentlemen! I'm not sure that this clears Black Rock in any way, since she was voting is pure self-defense. EVeryone is welcome to suspect me all they want. I have no objection.
Can you please explain to me how I defended DDL again. I don't think it was clear to me.

Yep. I was referring to this post.

Black Rock wrote:
Golden wrote:RIP TH. "Turnip Head has been put down" sounds way more intense than it actually is.

I have conflicted feelings about that. Would have been better if we caught a mafia, but I do agree with the sentiment that inactive civilians make the game harder for the civs.

The other interesting thing is that, in a game with no roles, it almost sounds like there was a tie between DDL and TH. I wonder if there could have been an extra vote going on somewhere in there?
Interesting you would focus on DDL and ignore Missing Person was also mentioned in the same context. I don't think it was a tie as much as story telling.

It reads defensive to me. "WHy are you picking on DLL?" kind of thing. Maybe you didn't intend it that way, but that's how I interpreted it.

Great work on Spacedaisy, gentlemen! I'm not sure that this clears Black Rock in any way, since she was voting is pure self-defense. EVeryone is welcome to suspect me all they want. I have no objection.

I suspect spacedaisy. I suspect Black Rock more. I don't really suspect Missing Person.

Voting Black Rock.

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