The Syndicate

This post by Balaam clears up any doubts I had about him. Sorry for not trusting you, Balaam.

Balaam wrote:Humor me Belshazzar, you offered what read to me like a pretty soft read on Mordecai. His vote pattern looks very suspicious and I don't really have anything in my notes on him that strikes me as worthy of giving him a pass through the next two votes. Heck, your notes don't even seem to justify feeling even neutral on him.

Belshazzar wrote:Mordecai
Day 1: scrutiny of Paul's actions, but also suspicious of Samson and ends up voting for him (first of in the ensuing lynch). Day 2, calls hunt for Uzziah both a cop out but also something he doesn't disagree with (just that it offers room for complacency). Nevertheless, argues significantly with Job instead over this. Come Day 3, he's already wary of Job tunneling, but as far as I notice, didn't take it further.

Two consecutive votes for Lazarus, for his own tunneling of Absalom. His Day 3 one the first of three, whilst Uzziah and Rachel (and soon Job) had already two votes; he never really touched upon these players. His Day 4 is amidst an intense Job vs. Balaam train, in which he again has no part in.
No serious content Day 5 expect his vote post for Uzziah, a late vote that solidifies his lynch. Upon being questioned by Jeph, states that he voted Uzziah in retaliation to Job's flip. His statement that Uzziah would have been a sure lynch (=highly likely lynch) every day raises some eyebrows and rightly so, because it was neither the case quite every single day (except for Day 3), nor did he state this before with conviction.

Day 6, he works on a "voting together" angle of reading the vote records, signaling Deborah, Malchus and Rachel. Votes Rachel of the three, but, conspicuously or not, his vote now stands as bringing Rachel at 3-4 versus Ruth.

Day 7, odd angle theory at whether Absalom would look intentionally civ given Ruth's vote for him. Also builds up his Balaam theory, but presents it only Day 8. Regarding this, some points either don't stand out for me as much as for him or Balaam sounded genuine in defending against them (for instance, #2 and #3, if anyone has followed their exchange), but interestingly enough, he does connect him with Ruth in the timing of the votes, just like Lot noticed.

Hmm, I was sort of expecting to have a stronger read on him. The votes that could be accounted as the worst would be (in order) Day 6 (possible push for Rachel to save Ruth), Day 1 (Samson train, whilst his teammates jumped on Cain's instead) and maybe Day 3. I can't lock his Day 5 vote as bad, but if he is a Heathen, then the deed was long done on sacrificing Uzziah.

From the votes themselves, turning Ruth's lynch into that angle to suspect Absalom seems to me to go against the very nature of Ruth's intent when voting for Absalom (him to die instead of her), so maybe it was an intentionally forced perspective offered to the thread? Is this what others are picking up on as well? Besides that, his Day 3 Lazarus pick and his statement that Uzziah was always highly lyncheable don't match up in attitude, especially for the day that Uzziah could have been lynched. But again, I was hoping for a stronger bad read of him than such circumstantial ideas. I'm open to keeping him in check.

What gives?

Belshazzar wrote:So Samson's vote counted? And the tie was decided randomly or by someone?

Impressive turn of events, anyway. Burn in hell, Mordecai!

This is what's known in the business as "frustration."

Belshazzar wrote:Maybe Isaac is nonetheless a Heathen and there wouldn't have been much saving either way inside the team, if Mordecai would have voted him to die instead.

This is what's known in the business as "desperation."

Oh look, isn't that interesting?

Epignosis wrote:Isaac
5
Isaac (5), Esther (10), Rahab (11), Belshazzar (16), Samuel (17)
25%

Mordecai
5
Absalom (8), Pilate (9), Stephen (14), Jacob (18), Samson (20)
25%

I am on fire this game. Belshazzar is now my top suspect, although I want to do more vote analysis first to make sure.

Esther wrote:I hate to spread more votes, but I would like to vote one of my top three. Lot, Abs, Balaam, I am trusting you this game....what do you suggest?

Of your top three, probably Isaac.

Belshazzar wrote:Well, we're in a peculiar civ/suss square ourselves, anyway. You suspect me, yet I find you the civviest of us four. Lot vouches for Balaam, but you are not sold on him and I have him in a murky area due to his stats, but find his own vouches genuine.

All of this is extremely true.

Belshazzar wrote:I also strongly feel, at this point, that all four of us have done reads and debates in vain, because the rest will just come and do lottery between our choices. Sorry to put it this way, but

Well, I'm convinced that at least one of us doing reads is bad, because wouldn't you? Would you let your whole team not get involved with the thread leaders? I sure wouldn't.

I've been giving Isaac the benefit of the doubt, but if it turns out I am wrong about Mordecai, I will be happy to stop giving him that benefit.

Balaam wrote:So I see a quarter of today's possible votes have already been cast. There's 18 of us left but we'll handicap that down to 16 because , well, who actually expects Bathsheba and Malchus to show up at this point?

We've still got 4 and a half hours until the deadline. Let's do some talking and not just drive-by vote okay?

Who is everyone's top three suspects right now? Here are mine:

1. Jacob
2. Deborah
3. Mordecai

1. Mordecai
2. Rahab
3. Belshazzar

I am simply not seeing the case on Rebecca. Her record doesn't look that bad to me.

Isaac's self vote is troubling. But to me it reads like a civvie who feels doomed.. He is convinced he will either get NKed or lynched. I can't see a baddie throwing in the towell like thta.

I am voting for Mordecai and giving Shazzie a hard for not finding him suspicious.

Belshazzar wrote:Maybe just curious that his case on Balaam vanished after his talk with Lot on Night 4, but it's nothing to account him for at this point.

Despite Lot's vouching, I am still not fully sold on Balaam. What do you make of the vote timing analysis I posted with him and Ruth? Coincidence?

I have to admit, I find it very troubling.

That being said, I think Mordecai is my top suspect today based on all the analysis that has been done.

Belshazzar wrote: Absalom, have you had a chance to re-read Pilate?

Yes. The only remotely odd thing there is thta he seemed to know a bit too much about my foul humour.

Why are you so interested in Pilate? I told you, he is unimpeachable.

Balaam wrote:

Absalom wrote:Why has no one answered my question about Balaam's voting pattern being directly adjacent to Ruth's? The silence on this subject is making me nervous.

I had a question on that actually. Thank you for reminding me.

You said I voted immediately after Ruth twice- Day 1 and Day 3. On Day 1, there were three votes separating Ruth's vote and my vote. Are you focusing on the fact that Ruth and I voted for the same person both of those days and I was the next vote for the same person she voted for after she voted that person?

For me, it seemed a little dishonest to frame it as me voting right after Ruth two out of the first three days. If what I laid out above is on your wavelength, I think it could be described better as Balaam matching Ruth's vote for the same person two out of three days. Even that isn't worded the best, but is that what you're trying to get at?

YOu're right, I screwed up day one. I was focused on the fact that you voted for the same person as Uzziah and Ruth. So the voting record looks like Uzziah, Ruth, Balaam.Saying "directly after" was an error on my part.

What I found more interesting is that on Day 3, 4 and 6. You and Ruth voted within four minutes of each other. And that she missed Day 2 and you missed Day 5, so the record is incomplete.

I endorse and applaud Balaam's analysis. I tried to look at each player in the worst light as well, but two heads are better than one.

Why has no one answered my question about Balaam's voting pattern being directly adjacent to Ruth's? The silence on this subject is making me nervous.

Belshazzar wrote:Really? We have so far at least two players who have hinted civviness (to save their butts, tho), a player whose actions would infer civviness, a player who someone else has vouched to be confirmed civvie, but if the Heathens don't dispose of Isaac tonight, that automatically means he lied?

I think the wheels on this discussion have long fallen off.

I was mostly being facetious. No need to overreact. I am not in a hurry to lynch Isaac, but I would not mind giving him a little WIFOM cover to keep him from being KNed.

Isaac wrote:So is there any way we can stick with wifom and not give the heathens an excuse to kill me?

Well, if they don't kill you, it will look like you're lying, and then we'll have to lynch you. So maybe they won't.

Of course, then you would get lynched, so...

Isaac wrote: Calmallama down for a sec and look at the roles page. I call myself vanilla because there is absolutely nothing next to my role on that page.
My only slip up is forgetting to search for other apostles

If Isaac is telling the truth, he has to be either Matthew, Philip, or Simon Peter. Does anyone have any reason to believe he is not one of these three roles?

Jacob wrote: Absalom, why no analysis of Rebecca? What are your thoughts on her? She keeps getting skipped over in discussion, and I think she's still worth looking at.

I don't know, dude, I'm just not seeing much there. Her Day 3 vote didn't look like a save. Her Day 6 vote looks kind of bad. Her continued voting of Geoff though is what I expect to see from people with genuine suspicions rather than baddies trying to cultivate a good voting record. It's possible she's bad, but she's not high on my already long list of suspects.

Belshazzar wrote:

Absalom wrote:

Esther wrote: What do you mean he's unimpeachable?

I his his voting record makes it almost impossible that he is a Heathen.

Hmm. I was actually thinking you mean it's almost impossible to read a tactic into his votes due to him being always first or early to vote. What about his posts, then? His two-day self-proclaimed "phoning in" for Rachel Days 3-4, whilst Uzziah escaped a lynch and Job got lynched? His "quickie" votes for Jonathan the past two Days?

I'll have to reread him, but I think his Day 1 and Day 5 votes for Uzziah are very unlikely for a teammate.

Corrected full list.

Absalom
Day 1: Second vote for Cain, tying it with Uzziah and Samson.
Day 2: Second vote on the Cain train. Consistent.
Day 3: Third vote for Uzziah, putting him in the lead over Job and Rachel.
Day 4: First vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Third vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: First to vote for Ruth. Good vote!
Day 7: First vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: Fifth vote for Jonathan.

Balaam:
Day 1: The fifth and last voter on Cain, directly following two confirmed Heathens. That would be a ballsy vote if he were bad.
Day 2: Seventh vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent with Day 1. Uzziah had two votes.
Day 3: Seventh vote on Mary Mag. Uzziah had four votes. This is the second time he voted directly after Ruth for the same person.
Day 4: Sixth on the Job wagon. Directly before Ruth's vote for Uzziah.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Sixth vote for Ruth. Came directly after Ruth's vote for me, banking on hypothetical phantom Lazarus votes.
Day 7: Third vote for Geoff, tying it with Jonathan.
Day 8: Fourth vote for Jonathan.

Bathsheba:
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Eighth vote for Cain. Uzziah had three.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Ninth vote for Ruth.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Belshazzar:
Day 1: The sixth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Third vote on the Cain wagon. Uzziah had one vote.
Day 3: Third vote for Mary Mag, tying the vote with Uzziah. Very suspicious vote.
Day 4: Ninth on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Second vote for Samuel when Uzziah had five and Geoff had three. Immediately after this, Ruth voted for her teammate.
Day 6: Seventh vote for Ruth, right after Balaam's.
Day 7: Fourth vote for Jonathan when Geoff had six.
Day 8: Seventh vote for Jonathan.

Deborah
Day 1: First vote for Cain.
Day 2: Fourth vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent.
Day 3: Fifth vote on the Mary Mag wagon, before Ruth. Uzziah had three votes at the time.
Day 4: Self vote.
Day 5: Only vote on Malchus. Uzziah was definitively going down at this time.
Day 6: Second vote on Jacob. Ruth had four.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Sixth vote on Jonathan.

Esther
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Fourth vote for Job.
Day 4: Seventh vote on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Uzziah, just before Ruth.
Day 6: First vote on Pilate, Ruth had three.
Day 7: First vote on Pilate, consistent with the day before and staying away from both civ wagons.
Day 8: Third vote on Jonathan.

Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Jacob
Day 1: Fourth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote on Mary Mag wagon, Uzziah had three.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Fourth vote on Rachel, Ruth had five.
Day 7: Second vote on Rebecca.
Day 8: Eighth vote for Jonathan.

Jonah
Day 1: First vote for Mary Mag.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Only vote on Rahab, Uzziah had two. A weird vote, since I don't think Rahab has taken any other votes all game.
Day 4: Fourth vote on Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had nine.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Ninth vote for Jonathan.

Judah
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Lazarus
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Only vote for me.
Day 3: Only vote for me.
Day 4: Only vote for me.
Day 5: Only vote for me.
Day 6: Second to vote for me, potentially worth five.
Day 7: Fifth vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Self vote (?)

Lot
Day 1: Second vote for Geoff.
Day 2: Second vote for Uzziah. Cain already had five votes at this point, so not too risky.
Day 3: First vote for Rachel. Uzziah and Job had one. A bit early for a teammate, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Second vote for Geoff after Uzziah had four.
Day 6: Third vote for Ruth, before Lazarus voted for me. I think this vote makes Lot unlikely to be mafia.
Day 7: First vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Vote for Lazarus (possibly under duress)

Malchus
Day 1: Second vote for me.
Day 2: Fifth vote on the Cain train.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Mordecai
Day 1: First vote for Samson, Uzziah had two.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: First vote for Lazarus.Uzziah had two.
Day 4: First vote for Lazarus.
Day 5: Ninth and last vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: Third to vote for Rachel. Ruth had four.
Day 7: First and only vote for Balaam.
Day 8: First and only vote for Balaam. Consistent.

Pilate
Day 1: First vote for Uzziah when the highest vote-taker has two. Incredibly ballsy Day 1 play if bad.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: First vote for Rachel.
Day 5: First vote for Uzziah. Clears him in my mind.
Day 6: First vote for me.
Day 7: Second vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: First vote for Jonathan.

Rachel
Day 1: First and only vote for Rebecca.
Day 2: Second vote for Job, following Uzziah.
Day 3: Third vote for Job, tying it with Uzziah.
Day 4: Second on the Job wagon. Consistent with last two days.
Day 5: Eighth of Uzziah. Geoff had four.
Day 6: Fifth for Ruth.
Day 7: First and only vote for Jacob.
Day 8: Second for Jacob.

Rahab
Day 1: Third vote for Uzziah, but Samson already had seven at this point, so pretty safe.
Day 2: Sixth on the Cain train.
Day 3: Fourth vote for Uzziah, late after Mary Mag has five.
Day 4: Second on Lazarus.
Day 5: Seventh on Uzziah. Geoff had three.
Day 6: Second for Pilate after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second for Pilate. Consistent.
Day 8: First for Jacob.

Rebecca
Day 1: First vote for Geoff.
Day 2: First and only vote for Geoff. Consistent.
Day 3: First on the Mary Mag wagon.
Day 4: Third for Balaam.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Second for Rachel after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second vote for Geoff. Must really hate Geoff.
Day 8: Missed.

Samuel
Day 1: Seventh vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth on Job wagon.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Eighth for Ruth.
Day 7: Fourth for Geoff.
Day 8: Twelfth for Jonathan.

Stephen
Day 1: First and only vote for Barnabas.
Day 2: Self vote.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Third for Job.
Day 5: Second on Uzziah.
Day 6: Second for Ruth.
Day 7: Third for Jonathan.
Day 8: Second for Jonathan.

Final observations
I think the people I am most concerned with are Belshazzar, Mordecai, Jacob, Isaac, and Rahab. That list is still too long, so I will try to narrow it down before tomorrow.

What do people think of the weird correlation between Balaam and Ruth's vote times? It's the strangest thing I found in my analysis. Lot, I know you are 100% on Balaam, and I am 90% on you, but I still want to hear what others think.

Mordecai wrote:I don't like talking during night phase, but I may do a quality check on Absalom's lists. He has me down as missing a vote on day 4, when in actuality I voted a second time on Lazarus.

My apologies, Mordecai. I am not immune from mistakes, as I'm sure my voting record has made clear by now.

Esther wrote: What do you mean he's unimpeachable?

I his his voting record makes it almost impossible that he is a Heathen.

Belshazzar wrote: linki: now that Mordecai mentioned it, I also double checked Absalom's lists and I think he also omitted this

Esther: Day 3 - 4th vote for Job

I am glad people are double checking me. It's hard to look at thos vote lists and not miss things.

I'll just do the last five in one go.

Rachel
Day 1: First and only vote for Rebecca.
Day 2: Second vote for Job, following Uzziah.
Day 3: Third vote for Job, tying it with Uzziah.
Day 4: Second on the Job wagon. Consistent with last two days.
Day 5: Eighth of Uzziah. Geoff had four.
Day 6: Fifth for Ruth.
Day 7: First and only vote for Jacob.
Day 8: Second for Jacob.

Rahab
Day 1: Third vote for Uzziah, but Samson already had seven at this point, so pretty safe.
Day 2: Sixth on the Cain train.
Day 3: Fourth vote for Uzziah, late after Mary Mag has five.
Day 4: Second on Lazarus.
Day 5: Seventh on Uzziah. Geoff had three.
Day 6: Second for Pilate after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second for Pilate. Consistent.
Day 8: First for Jacob.

Rebecca
Day 1: First vote for Geoff.
Day 2: First and only vote for Geoff. Consistent.
Day 3: First on the Mary Mag wagon.
Day 4: Third for Balaam.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Second for Rachel after Ruth had four.
Day 7: Second vote for Geoff. Must really hate Geoff.
Day 8: Missed.

Samuel
Day 1: Seventh vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth on Job wagon.
Day 5: Third on Geoff.
Day 6: Eighth for Ruth.
Day 7: Fourth for Geoff.
Day 8: Twelfth for Jonathan.

Stephen
Day 1: First and only vote for Barnabas.
Day 2: Self vote.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Second on Uzziah.
Day 6: Second for Ruth.
Day 7: Third for Jonathan.
Day 8: Second for Jonathan.

Observations
I feel pretty good about Rachel, Stephen, and Samuel, looking at this. A part of me thinks Rahab might be an exceptionally devious baddie who managed to voet for her teammate three times at more or less safe points. It's always the quiet ones.

I'll take a breath here and say, at this point, Isaac, Jacob, Mordecai, and Belshazzar look worst. I'm very interested to see what Rahab will yield though.

Lot wrote: Did you miss the fact that Uzz was in the equal lead with two votes when Isaac was the third vote on Samson on day one?

I did miss that. Although you'll note I caught it in my own voting analysis. Thanks for pointing it out!

Absalom
Day 1: Second vote for Cain, tying it with Uzziah and Samson.
Day 2: Second vote on the Cain train. Consistent.
Day 3: Third vote for Uzziah, putting him in the lead over Job and Rachel.
Day 4: First vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Third vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: First to vote for Ruth. Good vote!
Day 7: First vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: Fifth vote for Jonathan.

Mordecai
Day 1: First vote for Samson, Uzziah had two.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: First vote for Lazarus.Uzziah had two.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Ninth and last vote for Uzziah.
Day 6: Third to vote for Rachel. Ruth had four.
Day 7: First and only vote for Balaam.
Day 8: First and only vote for Balaam. Consistent.

Pilate
Day 1: First vote for Uzziah when the highest vote-taker has two. Incredibly ballsy Day 1 play if bad.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: First vote for Rachel.
Day 5: First vote for Uzziah. Clears him in my mind.
Day 6: First vote for me.
Day 7: Second vote for Jonathan.
Day 8: First vote for Jonathan.

Observations
Mordecai has a really, really bad record. Every vote looks like either a save or a defeatist pile on.
Pilate is unimpeachable. Absalom is a swell guy with a pretty good record of going after baddies.

Lot wrote:Absalom, even though I feel you are confirmed civ, I don't think the right thing to do is skip a voting analysis of yourself, could you add that to the next set?

I skipped my own because I know my role, and hence analyzing my votes would be a waste of time, and because I feel I would lack objectivity. However, if you insist, I will do it next.

Next three:

Lazarus
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Only vote for me.
Day 3: Only vote for me.
Day 4: Only vote for me.
Day 5: Only vote for me.
Day 6: Second to vote for me, potentially worth five.
Day 7: Fifth vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Self vote (?)

Lot
Day 1: Second vote for Geoff.
Day 2: Second vote for Uzziah. Cain already had five votes at this point, so not too risky.
Day 3: First vote for Rachel. Uzziah and Job had one. A bit early for a teammate, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Second vote for Geoff after Uzziah had four.
Day 6: Third vote for Ruth, before Lazarus voted for me. I think this vote makes Lot unlikely to be mafia.
Day 7: First vote for Geoff.
Day 8: Vote for Lazarus (possibly under duress)

Malchus
Day 1: Second vote for me.
Day 2: Fifth vote on the Cain train.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Until Day 6, I thought Lot was looking pretty shady. He hadn't participated in a single lynch, which looked contrived. After his Ruth vote though, it's hard to see how he is bad. I feel fine about Malchus and Laz.

Next three:

Jacob
Day 1: Fourth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote on Mary Mag wagon, Uzziah had three.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Fourth vote on Rachel, Ruth had five.
Day 7: Second vote on Rebecca.
Day 8: Eighth vote for Jonathan.

Jonah
Day 1: First vote for Mary Mag.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Only vote on Rahab, Uzziah had two. A weird vote, since I don't think Rahab has taken any other votes all game.
Day 4: Fourth vote on Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had nine.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Ninth vote for Jonathan.

Judah
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Fifth vote for Balaam.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Missed.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations

Judah is AWOL. Jacob's Day 3 and Day 6 votes both look really bad. I am very interested in Jonah's vote for Rahab. It reminds me a lot of Ruth's vote for Uzziah. An off the wall distancing vote. If it turns out Rahab is bad, I bet Jonah is too, but that will have to wait until I get to her in the rotation.

Next three:

Deborah
Day 1: First vote for Cain.
Day 2: Fourth vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent.
Day 3: Fifth vote on the Mary Mag wagon, before Ruth. Uzziah had three votes at the time.
Day 4: Self vote.
Day 5: Only vote on Malchus. Uzziah was definitively going down at this time.
Day 6: Second vote on Jacob. Ruth had four.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Sixth vote on Jonathan.

Esther
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Seventh vote on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Fifth vote on Uzziah, just before Ruth.
Day 6: First vote on Pilate, Ruth had three.
Day 7: First vote on Pilate, consistent with the day before and staying away from both civ wagons.
Day 8: Third vote on Jonathan.

Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Both Deborah and Issac's Day 3 votes could potentially have been save attempts. Apart from that though, there's not much here to raise my eyebrow. Esther was clearly replaced around Day 4.

Balaam wrote: From here, I think what we need to do is make vote analyses for every player left in the game. Then we need to look at those in conjunction with my technicolor lists and see which three or four look the worst or the most likely to be strategically Heathen. Then we need to discuss those players Day 9.

I'm with you on this. I'll start, alphabetically, with you, Bathsheba and Belshazzar.

Balaam:
Day 1: The fifth and last voter on Cain, directly following two confirmed Heathens. That would be a ballsy vote if he were bad.
Day 2: Seventh vote on the Cain wagon. Consistent with Day 1. Uzziah had two votes.
Day 3: Seventh vote on Mary Mag. Uzziah had four votes. This is the second time he voted directly after Ruth for the same person.
Day 4: Sixth on the Job wagon. Directly before Ruth's vote for Uzziah.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Sixth vote for Ruth. Came directly after Ruth's vote for me, banking on hypothetical phantom Lazarus votes.
Day 7: Third vote for Geoff, tying it with Jonathan.
Day 8: Fourth vote for Jonathan.

Bathsheba:
Day 1: Missed.
Day 2: Eighth vote for Cain. Uzziah had three.
Day 3: Missed.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Missed.
Day 6: Ninth vote for Ruth.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Belshazzar:
Day 1: The sixth vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Third vote on the Cain wagon. Uzziah had one vote.
Day 3: Third vote for Mary Mag, tying the vote with Uzziah. Very suspicious vote.
Day 4: Ninth on the Job wagon.
Day 5: Second vote for Samuel when Uzziah had five and Geoff had three. Immediately after this, Ruth voted for her teammate.
Day 6: Seventh vote for Ruth, right after Balaam's.
Day 7: Fourth vote for Jonathan when Geoff had six.
Day 8: Seventh vote for Jonathan.

Observations:
Every day in which both Balaam and Ruth voted, they voted directly after one another.
Ruth did not post her vote on Day 1, missed Day 2, but on Day 3 she voted 3 minutes before Balaam. On Day 4, 4 minutes after Balaam. Day 5, Balaam missed. Day 6, they voted within three minutes of each other. Maybe a coincidence, but a weird one.

Balaam and Belshazzar voted for the same person 5 out of 8 days. In each case, that person was lynched.

It's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is a Heathen. He tried to save Uzziah on Day 3. On Day 5, is team decided Uzziah was done for and they ahd to scatter their votes. Ruth voted for Uzziah and he voted for Samuel (who had no chance of saving Uzziah) in quick succession. The vote for Ruth would have been cover, knowing that she had no chance for survival.

I'm not saying I necessarily believe this yet, but it fits with the data so far. Food for thought.

I clearly need to reevaluate before tomorrow.

Well, that is somewhat less than ideal.

Jonathan, I have given you chance after chance to convince me I was wrong about you, and be honest, you never even tried.

You said "I'm not bad" and "my votes were reasonable at the time" but that is not a defense. Anyone would say they are not bad, and baddies' votes always look reasonable at the time. It's the big picture that reveals their patterns to be suspect. I gave you multiple opportunities to say who you thought should be lynched in your stead, and you couldn't name One. Single. Name.

It's very frustrating when you ask someone to defend themselves, they refuse, and then they get mad at you for lynching them. What am I supposed to do, just refrain from lynching anyone who asks me not to?

Jonathan wrote:

Absalom wrote:Jonathan: "Don't lynch me!"
Absalom: "Who should we lynch instead?"
Jonathan: "There are lots of cases out there."
Absalom: "Okay, which one looks good to you?"
Jonathan: "Doesn't matter. Just not me."

Voting Jonathan.

I never said "Doesn't matter. Just not me." You totally made that up. Is that what you do now to make sure someone is lynched?

It's not an exact quote, but it was the implication of your reply. You want an exact quote? Fine. After I asked you which case looked the best to you, you said:

Jonathan wrote:I am not in the position to be able to convince you someone else is worse than me without just repeating what others have already said.

You've had days to defend yourself and you could not give me one single name that you thought was bad? You have ZERO suspects?

Jonathan wrote: I probably won't be back on before the lynch so all I can say is I hope you all learn something from this lynch. One thing that I think is important is you just can't look at someone's vote record and say look at the mistakes here, here and here. They must be heathen.

Yes you can. It worked for Ruth, and I think it will work for you.

Jonathan: "Don't lynch me!"
Absalom: "Who should we lynch instead?"
Jonathan: "There are lots of cases out there."
Absalom: "Okay, which one looks good to you?"
Jonathan: "Doesn't matter. Just not me."

Voting Jonathan.

Jonathan wrote: You offered me a chance to present an alternative that I saw last night. I am busy with family as I think I made obvious and have no time to present a case. Besides, and most importantly, many people have presented cases on many other people. Are you saying you didn't find any of those other cases compelling? I am your only suspicion? You are just trying to trap me by setting up something you know isn't necessary at best and knew i didn't have time for at worst.

Sorry for the multiple posts, I just find this stunning. Is there any one of these "cases on many other people" you find particularly compelling, or all they all the same to you?

Is this the Rachel post you reference?

Jonathan wrote:

Rachel wrote:

Jonathan wrote:I've looked at my past thoughts about Absalom and can't find anything that's a baddie read for me. But I know not everyone agrees with me on that. If he's good I don't know why he has chosen to attack me without reading my posts. There is a running diary of why I voted some people and not others and Uzziah is mentioned throughout the days - maybe not everyday I haven't checked that but his name pops up a lot in my thoughts about the game. He would get a fuller perspective if he would consider the two in concert.

So why would lynching you have any bearing on Absalom's alignment?

Sorry I missed this. Maybe I worded that wrong. Lynching me could have a bearing on his perceived alignment in that I am good and it could/would be seen as a black mark on his record. Maybe I'm wrong though. Maybe when I flip civ if I'm lynched people will forgive him for getting it wrong. I just don't want anyone to be able to say "she should have defended herself more".

Basically you are saying I shouldn't lynch you because it might make me look bad. I don't care whether I look bad. I care whether I do the best I can to catch baddies.

You know who worries a lot about whether they look bad? Guilty people.

Jonathan wrote:

Absalom wrote:

Balaam wrote:I'd like to hear input from Belshazzar, Rachel, and Absalom regarding the Jacob v. Jonathan issue. I think one of them (Jacob or Jonathan) needs to die today so we can move forward instead of sideways like we did Day 7.

Here's my input. I think they both look bad, but I think Jonathan looks worse for the following reasons.
1. He has missed fewer votes than Jacob, giving him a more complete voting record to analyze, and the votes look worse, in my opinion. I also think that people with teammates are less likely to miss votes than people without, although I know some people disagree with me on this.
2. When I suggested voting for him the first time, he made the bizarre comeback of something like "if you lynch me, you'll get lynched next." This was directly after I led the Ruth lynch, so I find it a very strange line of defense to take.
3. I offered him the chance to present an alternative to his lynch, to persuade me that someone else looks worse than him. He hasn't done it. He just says "I am not bad" over and over, as if that is supposed to mean something.

You offered me a chance to present an alternative that I saw last night. I am busy with family as I think I made obvious and have no time to present a case. Besides, and most importantly, many people have presented cases on many other people. Are you saying you didn't find any of those other cases compelling? I am your only suspicion? You are just trying to trap me by setting up something you know isn't necessary at best and knew i didn't have time for at worst.

I don't know what words I used but i didn't mean you would get lynched next. I already explained that to Rachel, surely you saw it.

No, you are not my only suspicion, but you are my strongest suspicion, and you refuse to take any action to change my mind on that. How hard is it to understand that saying "I am not bad" is not a convincing defense?

You have been a major suspect for the better part of a week now, and the best defense you have is "read someone else's case and latch onto that"? Really?

I understand that you are busy today, but you knew this was coming, and you have had many days in which you could have offered a real defense. You have not done so.

Balaam wrote:I'd like to hear input from Belshazzar, Rachel, and Absalom regarding the Jacob v. Jonathan issue. I think one of them (Jacob or Jonathan) needs to die today so we can move forward instead of sideways like we did Day 7.

Here's my input. I think they both look bad, but I think Jonathan looks worse for the following reasons.
1. He has missed fewer votes than Jacob, giving him a more complete voting record to analyze, and the votes look worse, in my opinion. I also think that people with teammates are less likely to miss votes than people without, although I know some people disagree with me on this.
2. When I suggested voting for him the first time, he made the bizarre comeback of something like "if you lynch me, you'll get lynched next." This was directly after I led the Ruth lynch, so I find it a very strange line of defense to take.
3. I offered him the chance to present an alternative to his lynch, to persuade me that someone else looks worse than him. He hasn't done it. He just says "I am not bad" over and over, as if that is supposed to mean something.

Lot wrote:Jonathan sounds genuine to me too, but I admit that I haven't done a good job on the gut front.

In that vein, I now trust Jacob, but I also wonder if we are only trusting Isaac because he sounds genuine. And now that the heat has come off him, does it feel to anyone else like he has faded in to the background again?

I feel as though Malchus, Judah and Bathsheba would be potentially a waste of a vote because they might well die of famine (or be modkilled, whatever is going on). Also, because I'm assuming at this point that at least the first two socks are empty and Epi might still manage to fill them at some point, but that might be hopeful.

Everyone was gung ho for Jonathan or Jacob yesterday. Today I am sensing a lot of waffling. I'd be okay with lynching either, but I'd obviously prefer Jonathan. I think it is foolhardy to abandon all the excellent vote analysis going on yesterday (similar to that which caught Ruth) because people sound genuine. Trusting people who sounded genuine is what got us to lynch civvies the first few days.

I would prefer to have us present a united front today and not spread out the vote all crazy like we did yesterday. Question for everyone: are Jacob and Jonathan's voting records better today than they were yesterday when everyone was ready to lynch them?

Jonathan, who do you think is bad? Sell me an alternative.

Quiet today. I'm getting concerned that fewer and fewer of us are actually discussing things. Does anyone have anything to say? If not, I'm going to vote for Jonathan and hope he dies.

Lot wrote:That's all I have to say on the matter. We should get back to figuring out who to lynch today

Okay. How about Jonathan? You guys didn't listen to me yesterday, and look how that turned out.

Lot wrote:

Jacob wrote:Lot, what was that about the horsemen?

Yeah, that does read pretty randomly doesn't it. Perhaps if you read the post as a whole it might make some sense.

What is war good for? Absolutely nothing. Certainly not for me.

What are you talking about?

Suck it, Giant. Your family is stupid.

Esther wrote:RIP Jeph.

Absalom wrote:I'm a little surprised at the late push on Geoff. All day it was all Jacob all the time and then Jacob takes one lousy vote? Where did the enthusiasm for a Geoff lynched come from?

And before anyone jumps down my throat, I know a couple of people have suspected Geoff for a while, but not nearly the number that voted for him. I will have to look into this carefully ere morning comes.

So are you thinking we ought to look at Jeph voters then? Ad do you think they were trying to save Jonathan?

I don't know yet. Give me the night to sleep and think about it. I still think Jonathan is bad news though.

I'm a little surprised at the late push on Geoff. All day it was all Jacob all the time and then Jacob takes one lousy vote? Where did the enthusiasm for a Geoff lynched come from?

And before anyone jumps down my throat, I know a couple of people have suspected Geoff for a while, but not nearly the number that voted for him. I will have to look into this carefully ere morning comes.

I told you guys it was Jonathan!

RIP Geoff.

Quite a few missed votes again, I see. People sure were sleepy in the Bible times.

Lazarus wrote:Im going to go ahead and give absalom the BOTD this time and also vote Jeph. Out of everyone with votes already he has caught my eye the most.

Thank you, Laz, for being reasonable.

Lot wrote:Absalom, you can breathe easy.

Phew.