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by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 606386 wrote:A grain of salt is my recommendation for you, a whole bag of rock salt is what I have for me.
Okay, that's why I'm confused about what you're saying. If you have more than a "grain of salt's" worth of doubt, then what is inspiring that strong doubt? It can't be that you are the stool pigeon, or this discussion would make no sense.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:25 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:Seeing as we've got two players seeming to claim that ika was the seemer, I'm willing to believe that he was, but I'm not sure who to believe is the real Daisy stool pigeon.
We have no reason to question Silverwolf's motives. She was arrested because she was town, and her perspective was an honest one. The only question to be asked is this one:

Did Silverwolf intend to convey to us that she was the real stool pigeon, and that was how she knew ika was the seemer? Or did she intend to convey to us that she knew ika was the seemer because she felt she could read him really well?

One of those arguments is obviously stronger than the other, and if it's the former then Soneji is a cop. I'll dig in after dinner.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:24 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Turnip Head wrote:I'm with 958 let's lynch Sloondog Millionaire! :feb:
Y'all should wait until the common enemy is handled. :p
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

When I get a moment I'm going to directly compare Silverwolf-as-stool pigeon to Soneji-as-stool pigeon. That might be the whole game.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:This is true. Even a mislynch today gives us the remaining two cops, assuming the game continues.
This is what I meant when I suggested the game could be locked down if any non-cop is paroled. We should tread carefully though, who knows what shenanigans may await.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 606386 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Prisoner 606386 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Prisoner 606386 wrote:I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.
Why?
Are there any reasons to think she was the stool pigeon beyond her claiming to know ika was the seemer?
That alone is a decent reason. She was also totally insistent about it.

Are there any reasons not to that don't also apply to Soneji?
With most players that would be a decent reason, but given their relationship I don't think it is, especially because she was so insistent about it. Silverwolf and ika have proven themselves to be extremely insistent defenders of each other in multiple games, and while you could (and they often have) make the argument that their experience with each other helps back up their defense, I think their love clouds their ability to be objective with reading each other. Not a slight to them whatsoever, I'm just saying that I would take their reads of each other (and this includes role speculation) with a grain of salt at best.

I don't know about Soneji.
I can understand a grain of salt. That's agreeable. You said you "highly doubt it" though. That's a whole bag of rock salt. Surely there's more to your reasoning for such a strongly stated conviction?
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:22 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 606386 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Prisoner 606386 wrote:I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.
Why?
Are there any reasons to think she was the stool pigeon beyond her claiming to know ika was the seemer?
That alone is a decent reason. She was also totally insistent about it.

Are there any reasons not to that don't also apply to Soneji?
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:15 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 606386 wrote:I highly doubt that Silverwolf was the stool pigeon.
Why?
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

At the very least it greatly simplifies the matter of reading Soneji. There's no reason to care how town he "looks", because there can be no doubt he wanted to be viewed as the stool pigeon. If that's true, he's good. If Silverwolf was the stool pigeon, then there is no possible town explanation for Soneji's deception and he's a cop.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:My first thought based on the tone and vocabulary of 126's posts is that they are Silverwolf.
I can't comment. We should be wary of Epi or even ika playing the actor, but not to the point of paranoia.

If you're right that 126 is Silverwolf (I offer no opinion on that), then 126 must be taken seriously. If she was the stool pigeon, then Soneji is definitely a cop and all prior town reading is irrelevant.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Silverwolf once said she knew ika was the seemer for "reasons". I thought this might indicate that she was the stool pigeon. She didn't initially jump on him being the seemer which would confuse me if she has his fake role -- but Soneji didn't either.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

As a prisoner I cannot say who 126 is, but there are only two options. If it's the town option, then we need to hear him/her out.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I think we've got 'em, y'all. :srsnod:
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:47 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sure 813, fill me in.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Okay. He hasn't stated it himself (as per the rules), but Soneji's confidence that ika was the seemer would suggest he is the Stool Pidgeon that ika flipped as, or he wants it to appear that way. I can't right now, but someone needs to check his posts for ika-relevant content to test this theory -- especially the content coming after ika's lynch.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Soneji wrote:That Nerolunar was lynched says to me that Epi successfully deduced my role. The Prisoner likely wasn't arrested due to what Epi himself stated as the reason he hadn't been arrested in prior phases: he doesn't interfere with the cop win-con.

Elohcin

Epi waved away suspicion of her based on meta reasons that she would be active if she had BTSC and hes been too vocal of chaindeath for me to put much trust in him being the Police Chief.
Who do you think the seemer was, and what degree of confidence do you have in your answer?
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 483934 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I understand you 413. At this point everything is process of elimination. If Eloh is not a cop, then Soneji and chaindeath must be. I'd recommend exploring their ISOs to see how you feel about that.
Well if chaindeath is not a cop, then Elohcin or Soneji must be, right? :shrug:
If chaindeath is not a cop, then Elohcin and Soneji must be. It works in any order. If you think one possibility is more likely than the others, then by all means share your rationale. :)
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

It's not a certainty that the seemer was already lynched, but I do think it's highly likely. Hell, even if not we'd know all three cops left.

I think Epi's flip is an indicator that ika could have been the seemer as many theorized earlier.

If there's another parole we might be able to lock the game down in a pro-civilian way. Let's coalesce under one banner, innocent prisoners, and get these dirty cops out of the picture. :dark:
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:56 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Welcome back to the action 920077. I summarized earlier why only three people in the tally are really suspects, this might help you narrow your focus.
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I'll help the prisoners understand why they don't need to worry about Sloonei and Turnip Head in ways that those two cannot.

We know for sure that both dons are still alive. They cannot be arrested, and no lynches have resulted in a don flip.

Sloonei mechanically must be a don. agleaminranks the traitor was triggered to switch sides after Day 1. This means his don voted for him on Day 1. The following people voted for agleam on Day 1:

S~V~S - can't be don, was arrested
Golden - can't be don, was arrested
DDL - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Sockface
Epignosis - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Warden
Sloonei - alive and the don

Turnip Head is 98% likely to be the other don. An attempt to lynch him already failed, and a clear consigliere candidate is visible in thellama73.

I cannot be a cop because only one had been arrested when I was paroled (RadicalFuzz), and he was already modkilled.

This is why our focus is completely on chaindeath, Elohcin/Serge, and Soneji.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:36 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I understand you 413. At this point everything is process of elimination. If Eloh is not a cop, then Soneji and chaindeath must be. I'd recommend exploring their ISOs to see how you feel about that.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 413022 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Part of me wonders if Epi specifically convinced his wife to fill in for his team mate (Serge) when the need arose for a replacement.
maybe? the WIFOM in this case is VERY red and VERY dry - ya know?

And again, this is without actually reading back and stuff....
I dig. It's never easy to feel terrific about lynching someone with a single-digit post count.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:21 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Part of me wonders if Epi specifically convinced his wife to fill in for his team mate (Serge) when the need arose for a replacement.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:15 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Remember that prisoners are not allowed to out themselves OR other prisoners.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:03 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prisoner 413022 wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Hey prisoners: it looks like you folks were running into some bad luck with the challenges considering the number of shankings that have occurred. Were any of the challenges blatantly hijacked by someone, or were they honest errors?
I don't think any of it was intentional blatent hijacking. I think most of it was non participation and bad luck. Things that are honestly pretty common on TS.

can't wait to figure out which one of my co-prisoners is epi though. :feb: :feb:
Cool beans, just wondering because if someone blew up a challenge on purpose I'd have labeled them the undercover cop. I think the cops know what side the prisoners are on after the first breakout. :feb:
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:51 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Hey prisoners: it looks like you folks were running into some bad luck with the challenges considering the number of shankings that have occurred. Were any of the challenges blatantly hijacked by someone, or were they honest errors?
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:43 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I have a little time before I am absorbed into mass transit, so I'll do some work. Why might each of the suspects have killed Nero? I'll theorize:

chaindeath

Throughout the game he has been stating a cop read on Nero (and Nero very often stated a cop read on chaindeath). On Night 11 however, chaindeath changed his mind:
chaindeath wrote:Chaindeath is fine with Sloonei being warden. Soneji and Elo are likely the cops that are remaining. And to preemptively stop the OMG he changed his mind on Nero. It happens. In light of Epi's flip as a cop and some of the conversation leading up to and in the time between days chaindeath has an idea. Epi kept pushing for the two of us to be lynched and if Nero was his teammate that probably wouldn't be a smart thing to do. What would happen if the town rallied to chaindeath's side and we ended up lynching him and loosing the game from it. He'll be keeping an eye on Nero but for the moment he seems like he could be town.
Prior to this moment, Nero only had two significant enemies left in this thread -- chaindeath himself and me. Soneji and Sloonei have been more positive in their reads on Nero lately. So with chaindeath changing his mind like this, Nero's chance of being lynched immediately dropped by quite a bit. I can't lynch him by myself after all (and it's a good thing he was removed or I might have tried. :p). This might be an example of chaindeath projecting his own kill inadvertently by justifying it with a newly developed town read. With that read in the thread, suddenly a highly questionable arrest choice makes at least a little more sense.

Moreover, I think the Nero kill was strategically dubious -- he was a legitimate candidate to be a cop and he didn't have to be arrested. I fully expected to be arrested myself, because I'm never getting lynched on Day 12 and my vote can contribute to the lynch of an actual cop. chaindeath is the newest player remaining in this field, and this might have simply been a newbie mistake. I mean no offense chaindeath, we've all had moments like that.

Elohcin

Epignosis frequently asserted that Eloh just isn't reading this thread at all. He might have been with the cops, but I still believe him on that point. I don't think she is paying attention to this game beyond the necessity to meet voting requirements. That might be enough to explain a dubious arrest choice like Nerolunar.

Soneji

If he's a cop, he has to arrest someone -- and among the standard townies he has no options except for people that could be lynched (anyone not including Sloonei or Turnip Head). The only question to be asked for Soneji would be: "Why wouldn't he arrest Prisoner 509378 instead of Nerolunar???" If there's any reason to be stated, it'd be the cop win condition -- all members of the crime families must be eliminated. If Soneji has reason to doubt that I count among them, then removing me is not necessary to meeting that win condition regardless of my strategic position in the game currently.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:15 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I'll help the prisoners understand why they don't need to worry about Sloonei and Turnip Head in ways that those two cannot.

We know for sure that both dons are still alive. They cannot be arrested, and no lynches have resulted in a don flip.

Sloonei mechanically must be a don. agleaminranks the traitor was triggered to switch sides after Day 1. This means his don voted for him on Day 1. The following people voted for agleam on Day 1:

S~V~S - can't be don, was arrested
Golden - can't be don, was arrested
DDL - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Sockface
Epignosis - can't be don, was lynched and flipped Warden
Sloonei - alive and the don

Turnip Head is 98% likely to be the other don. An attempt to lynch him already failed, and a clear consigliere candidate is visible in thellama73.

I cannot be a cop because only one had been arrested when I was paroled (RadicalFuzz), and he was already modkilled.

This is why our focus is completely on chaindeath, Elohcin/Serge, and Soneji.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:32 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I'm going to be out for most of this real-time day. I can recommend one analytic method: ask yourself why each of the three candidates would arrest Nero and start digging.
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:03 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Welcome to the show, prisoners. It has been far too long. :dark:

I know what many of you are after, and I can help you. I wield at least some influence in this game now. If you help me (and by extension also help Sloonei and Turnip Head), you'll be giving yourself a good chance. :beer:
by Prisoner 509378
Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:00 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 12] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:Actually Nerolunar being arrested instead of Soneji is a bit of a head scratcher. Perhaps there's a very obvious reason for it, or perhaps that's what they wanted us to think. Or perhaps the chief is Elohcin and not paying coose attention.
At the very least it warrants a full review before we dive into anything, I think. It's a long day phase.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:34 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

chaindeath, since you think the cops are Soneji and Elohcin, which one should we lynch first?
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:01 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Did you agree with all of the night arrest choices the team has made, chaindeath?
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Hey chaindeath, are you the police chief?
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Treat them right in there, Sloonei. You never know when you might need them.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

In case I am taken out of the picture, I think the most likely cop combination is chaindeath and Elohcin. I recommend trying to kill the police chief first. If there's another prison break and I'm not in it, you're safe with 920077. But get the prisoners on your side, if they are erratic they can ruin you.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I agree with Sloonei. It'd be fantastic to reappear before the prisoners with the old warden dragged behind me, but it wouldn't serve much strategic purpose.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:16 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Going to sleep to dream dreams of a shackled and miserable warden. I hope this thread keeps moving, we're on the brink of a hell of a comeback. Let's finish it.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:10 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:I had a fairly strong town read on Nerolunar around Day 1 or 2 that I have not forgotten about. I was confident about his towniness then, and when I look back through his posts I am still seeing the same things I saw then. But we're at a stage in the game where everyone's a suspect, so I can't not approach him with more skepticism than before.
Was it the same read that Epi pooh-poohed because of the references to Zodiac Mafia?
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:07 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:I am currently reading the whole "fake read" plan as a calculated move to pretend to assess her as town, thus buying some time to push for a mislynch elsewhere.
That's where I'm at as well. The plan he laid out never had a chance of coming to fruition because Elohcin was clearly never reading this thread either way. I am pretty sure Epignosis was well aware of that. This scenario gave him an opportunity to put her in a lynchable position, and he didn't take it. That would seem to be a meaningful thing.

As always, Turnip Head's perspective would be very valuable. Anyone's would be, but I specifically name him because of his experience playing with Epi.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:02 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [Day 10] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Also, beyond just identifying the last two cops, we need to be conscious of cop roles. It is imperative that the police chief be eliminated first if at all possible. And I think this is the best lead available:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I think the most interesting chaindeath-relevant post Epi made was this one:
Epignosis wrote:Not all cops are created equal. One is responsible for extra arrest attempts. One isn't responsible for anything. When I look for bussing attempts, I look at the value of the role power in question when I'm making a judgment.

Time to cook.
This came in his response to my accusations that his aggression against Nero were manipulative. He suggested that Nero was bussing Dom to protect his other team mate chaindeath, and the reason he gave for this assertion was that he figured Dom had a weaker cop role. This came before Dom had flipped. We now know that Dom was the rookie cop, probably the weakest role on the cop team. Epi's foresight was striking in that regard. This might suggest he already knew that chaindeath had a stronger cop role than Dom did.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:Nerolunar or chaindeath?
I'm still thinking of it as two among Nerolunar, chaindeath, and Elohcin. I think your confidence in Elohcin as a cop is stronger than mine is, though I understand your perspective. The unique spousal dynamic that is Epignosis/Elohcin makes me hesitate before taking a stance with conviction. I'll need to review further.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Prior to Day 9, Epignosis only made one post that acknowledged the existence of Soneji. So I'm going to check Soneji's posts and go the other direction. Sneak preview: Soneji has 90 posts. A search for "epi" in his ISO nets 129 results.

Things Soneji said about Epignosis:
Spoiler: show
Soneji wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
S~V~S wrote:I thought he was implying that, here we go, we already have people saying they are not caught up to the thread and it is only halfway through day one.
Nah. I was just amazed that I vote the guy and he shows up and posts.
There was around a half hour between your post and his. Enough to say that it could be him just getting into the thread and seeing current topic of discussion and your post rather then watching over the thread to see if hes mentioned.

Epignosis wrote:Enrique, look at that pretty little tie.

I hate announcing my votes by the way. I'd rather just vote and let people figure out on their own I voted for them. Much more effective.
More effective at what exactly? At delaying any challenge to your vote?
Soneji wrote:First on the Diiny lynch is not surprising Enrique with the "joke vote" angle. Joke votes can work as bait but not when you're not cooperative for a significant amount of time afterward and ignore others(like Epi) who voted against you on the same basis.
Soneji wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:DRACONUS

SLOONEI

EPIGNOSIS
Cop

Town

Town
Soneji wrote:I think that may be as far as I go trying to do full rereads on the thread. Even with all the dead players its taking too much time and the first two days have given me a strong enough stance on most that I can just go through post histories for anything going forward. Out of all those remaining, S~V~S and Black Rock had the least presence, barely remembered much of what they said. The former at least had a critical enough part in the Fuzz wagon gaining traction that I feel good about putting him in the town pile. Only posts I remember from Black Rock are her calling out TH and Epi for not being on their top game.

Chaindeath, Draconus and Enrique/Boomslang are the ones I feel the strongest about as scumreads. Next level would be Serge and TH. Then Epi and Nero. llama, BR and Scotty are rather null reads. Rest I'm pretty confident as being town.
Soneji wrote:Is there a way to be directed to the post people are quoting on this site? On NF, there is a little arrow we can press on directly quoted posts to be sent straight to them. It really helps in terms of context. On the surface Epi's case against sig looks bad and sig has probably the worst look based off solely where his votes have been placed. Looking at context for both his Ika and gleam votes, I don't see anything really worrying though. The quote Epi is using of sig saying he doesn't like the Ika/gleam wagons is from day 1, the votes from sig on them are from days 2 and 4 respectively. Silver's defense of Ika day 2, specifically Silver saying she'd be demoralized if Ika was lynched, is what prompted sig to be more suspicious of Ika. He also thought that the CFD on Fuzz was an attempt to save a scummate and the Ika lynch was the only one of the original three(Epi/gleam being the other two) with enough steam left for sig to jump on to oppose this attempted save. I won't hold it too much against sig that he opposed the CFD, several confirmed townies did as well and the reasoning against CFD's is valid, even if it worked out in our favor. sig's change of mind on gleam also had progression to it, starting with him liking MetalMarsh's ISO on gleam and then gleam from what he said slipping under the radar post d1.

I don't see anything really indicative of malicious intent with sig's actions. The Prisoner's argument against Epi is much more indicative of someone whose trying to manipulate things to a specific end.
Soneji wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Hey Soneji, could you please be a bit more specific about my case against Epignosis -- what about it did you find agreeable? I just need to assess your mindset.
That Epi makes himself out as a big shot yet avoids any matters where he can show his superior knowledge as well as his tendency to avoid direct accusations. That post he made in regards to Enrique about liking it when he can just vote without noticing it threw up some red flags during one of my full read throughs, as has his shifty behavior on tight lynches.
Soneji wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:Hey Soneji, could you please be a bit more specific about my case against Epignosis -- what about it did you find agreeable? I just need to assess your mindset.
That Epi makes himself out as a big shot yet avoids any matters where he can show his superior knowledge as well as his tendency to avoid direct accusations. That post he made in regards to Enrique about liking it when he can just vote without noticing it threw up some red flags during one of my full read throughs, as has his shifty behavior on tight lynches.
Okay, that is a post I referenced, though I made no comment about his stated preference for not clearly stating his votes in the thread. You were highly specific in the context you lent to your defense of sig above, but your attack on Epignosis lacks the same context. Why was that a red flag for you, and what shifty behavior are you referring to specifically in tight lynches? You seem to have a very keen understanding of this game thread for someone with less than 30 posts; you're paying close attention to small details. This might sound odd coming from me after my own case against Epignosis, but, well... :dark:
I am not sure what makes you think I have a keen understanding of the game thread. My defense of sig? That is a simple matter of looking through his post history days 1-4 and reading those where he mentions gleam and Ika, to see if Epi's suspicions held water. I have a very keen understanding of the game of mafia as a whole, I'm a top 5 best player on my main mafia site, so I can notice the small details.

Unlike with sig, I didn't read through Epi's post history as I ran out of time before work. I am going off of general memory here for him. Your argument didn't look in any way to take his posts out of context, based on my memory of when they were made, which for some of them is fuzzy. The Enrique one I had quoted with a comment several days ago and I have read the majority of d2, so his dodging of the Fuzz/Ika situation has certainly not been misconstrued. He had more than enough time to get a grasp on the situation. He had everything prior to those supposed seven pages read, enough to have the ability to make a judgement call. Only mafia generally have reason to want to avoid looking bad by choosing the wrong person to vote. The Enrique thing was a red flag since to my remembrance he made that post after being called out for not announcing his Enrique vote in the poll in the game thread. It comes off as deflection.
Soneji wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:
Soneji wrote:I am not sure what makes you think I have a keen understanding of the game thread. My defense of sig? That is a simple matter of looking through his post history days 1-4 and reading those where he mentions gleam and Ika, to see if Epi's suspicions held water. I have a very keen understanding of the game of mafia as a whole, I'm a top 5 best player on my main mafia site, so I can notice the small details.
There have been numerous cases and suspicions fielded in recent memory. What was it about my case against Epignosis and his case against sig that inspired you to specifically join the thread and add commentary? Your content is limited because you've not done that for every discussion.
Soneji wrote:Your argument didn't look in any way to take his posts out of context, based on my memory of when they were made, which for some of them is fuzzy.
You see, that's the fun part. Because my case against Epignosis was straight up fake. I was actually laughing as I compiled it, making some silly points that I'd never make in a sincere case. :suspish:
Soneji wrote:The Enrique one I had quoted with a comment several days ago and I have read the majority of d2, so his dodging of the Fuzz/Ika situation has certainly not been misconstrued. He had more than enough time to get a grasp on the situation. He had everything prior to those supposed seven pages read, enough to have the ability to make a judgement call. Only mafia generally have reason to want to avoid looking bad by choosing the wrong person to vote. The Enrique thing was a red flag since to my remembrance he made that post after being called out for not announcing his Enrique vote in the poll in the game thread. It comes off as deflection.
I agree that Epi's vote for Zebra during the CFD was poor, and that alone is the best case against him.
I post whatever catches my fancy that I think will benefit town, within the time I find for this game. I was focused on doing a fairly thorough read of the entire thread for most of this game, though I gave that up as a lost cause once I managed to read up until the end of d2. I am trying now to focus on the present and the arguments being brung up against people now, using post history to make my own judgement on the findings. When I have the chance I will do a few ISO's of my own.

I have read sig as town almost any time I've read his posts during my read through or skim of current posts. That Epi is trying to bring him back to the forefront now caught my interest, so I decided to look into the matter, especially as Epi's been a fringe suspect for me most of the game.

If you found the points you brought up against Epi silly, I would like to know what qualifies as scummy in your book. The points you brought up against Epi were:

1. That he was avoiding participating in the current discussion by acting as if he wasn't up to date with the thread. Something he did while also presenting himself as being able to solve the current dilemma.

2. That he would subtly throw suspicion on players without directly accusing them, like ge did with gleam in the post you quoted.

3. Using meta reasons to defend Mongoose while implying that Sloonei is scum for not dismissing his read "as that is just Mongoose's meta".

4. Devolving the thread into filler talk about basketball.

5. Avoiding the d2 lynch despite acting as if he would break the tie.


All of these are valid scumtells and Epi does display them in the posts you brought up and elsewhere. I am going to take your assertion as low level bait, so I can maintain some illusion that towns current leader knows what hes talking about.
Soneji wrote:If 5:

Chaindeath
Elochin
Dom
Epi
Nero

If 4: Remove Nero/whichever of Dom/Elo replaced Serge. Will need to do more research.
There's plenty more, but it's all more recent and we should have a decent grasp of that anyway. I highlighted one line in this compilation that is of special significance to me. It was the moment when Soneji supported the fake case I assembled against Epignosis. My initial reaction was to eviscerate Soneji for this -- I built a smear campaign on purpose, and when someone took it up I naturally took issue with that. However, I eventually started to consider that I had inadvertently snared Soneji unjustly in this "trap", because his treatment of Epignosis was mostly consistent with his prior stated suspicions. More importantly right now, we have confirmed that Epignosis was a cop. I think then that figuring out Soneji's alignment can be reduced to a single question:

Did he and Epignosis coordinate this incident, in which Epignosis encouraged someone to build a fake case to gauge Elohcin (I took him up on that)? That would mean that Epi suggested the fake case, and then in BTSC Soneji either agreed to or volunteered to take the bait on purpose, for the sake of distancing.

My take? It felt like a reach to even type that. I am inclined to believe that when Epignosis made that suggestion, the only player he was strategizing about was Elohcin -- Soneji was nowhere in his mindset at all. This would imply that Soneji's appearance in that scenario was organic and accidental, suggesting a lack of coordination and a non-team mate relationship. The only alternative would be that Soneji wanted to bus Epignosis and still accidentally supported my fake case against him for the sake of throwing dirt at Epi. That also feels like a reach.

Thoughts?
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:14 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:
Prisoner 509378 wrote:I think the single most important interaction to investigate now is Epignosis/Soneji. That's the haziest wild card left, in my opinion (because we've already talked so much about Nero and chaindeath). If there's anything in those interactions that can help to clear Soneji, that would be immense. And there just might be, I have something in mind...
Whatcha thinking?
I'll get there shortly. Currently just dumping things in here as I find them that I think might be of interest. The Warden's WIFOM might be hard to decipher, but peoples' reactions to that WIFOM... :ponder:
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:12 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [Day 10] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Soneji wrote:SVS have I wronged you in another life for you to be so hostile towards anything I approve of :why: ?

I wonder if an event would take place if we killed the Warden. :ponder:
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:10 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 5] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:Is it because I'm Irish? [Insert the leprechaun smiley I assume indiglo has on hand]
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:09 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 5] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

chaindeath wrote:The warden is a prick... Chaindeath hopes that people will discredit his list, since the warden is likely smart enough to mix up his reads with those who are cops and normal good civis.
by Prisoner 509378
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:07 am
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [DAY 5] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Warden wrote:I understand you people like rainbows.
Turnip Head <~~~
SVS

ika
Silverwolf
chaindeath <~~~

Black Rock
Matt
Epignosis <~~~

Golden
Serge <~~~
Nerolunar <~~~
indiglo
Dragon D. Luffy
Soneji <~~~

Quin
a2thezebra
thellama73
Boomslang
Draconus
Scotty

Sloonei <~~~
sig
Red
by Prisoner 509378
Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:59 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

Sloonei wrote:It's certainly up for discussion though. This is a pretty crucial decision that we have to make.
But we have to throw out Elohcin, chaindeath, and nerolunar on principle. Way too many ???s abot them, and Soneji seems like a good guy but is not in the clear by any means.
The Prisoner is definitely on our side, but mechanically he's something of a mystery still.
Agreed. I'm only willing to consider Sloonei, Turnip Head, or myself. Awaiting TH's perspective.
by Prisoner 509378
Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:59 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

New cop team dynamics:

chaindeath
Spoiler: show
If chaindeath and Elohcin are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
Nerolunar
Soneji

If chaindeath and Nerolunar are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
Elohcin
Soneji

If chaindeath and Soneji are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
Elohcin
Nerolunar
Elohcin
Spoiler: show
If Elohcin and chaindeath are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
Nerolunar
Soneji

If Elohcin and Nerolunar are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
chaindeath
Soneji

If Elohcin and Soneji are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
chaindeath
Nerolunar
Nerolunar
Spoiler: show
If Nerolunar and chaindeath are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
Elohcin
Soneji

If Nerolunar and Elohcin are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
chaindeath
Soneji

If Nerolunar and Soneji are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
chaindeath
Elohcin
Soneji
Spoiler: show
If Soneji and chaindeath are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
Elohcin
Nerolunar

If Soneji and Elohcin are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
chaindeath
Nerolunar

If Soneji and Nerolunar are town, cops are:
RadicalFuzz
Mongoose/Draconus/Dom
Epignosis
???
chaindeath
Elohcin
by Prisoner 509378
Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:50 pm
Forum: Previous Jobs
Topic: [END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts
Replies: 9293
Views: 190996

Re: [NIGHT 11] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

I think the single most important interaction to investigate now is Epignosis/Soneji. That's the haziest wild card left, in my opinion (because we've already talked so much about Nero and chaindeath). If there's anything in those interactions that can help to clear Soneji, that would be immense. And there just might be, I have something in mind...

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