The Syndicate

Gobnait is clean!

I had a great time playing as her, so thanks to everyone who helped put the game together. Having an info role was exciting, and I was dead by the time any controversies arose, so they didn't affect my experience a bit.

DH, you did a more or less perfect job of defending yourself against my unceasing accusations, but killing me was a bad move because everyone believed me after seeing my role. It was fun (albeit a bit frustrating at times) sparring with you.

And DP, I realized you were Finnian right after I voted you on Day 5, when someone said it was obvious who you were. I just sat there with my mouth open thinking "Oh no, what have I done?"

Gah! I had a feeling my doom was impending. Avenge me, civs!

Izett Cruelsinger wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:Izett, Bac was never included in my group of suspicious Caillic voters. He never voted Caillic. That group was Queran, Bronwyn, and Carmen. I believe Bac to have been civ, if that helps you any.

Ok, maybe not the group of suspicious Caillic voters, but you did include Bac in a group of "only civ voters" that you included Queran in (implying that Queran and Bac had the same voting record, while saying THAT voting record makes Queran bad, yet the same voting record on Bac and you just said you think Bac was civ)... then you make it a point to mention that Queran was making a little "case" or having a go (just words, take the idea from them, but don't take them literally) at Bac as further proof that Queran is bad. I don't know, it all just doesn't quite jibe for me somehow...

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:First off, I'll reiterate about Queran's voting record. 4 votes for confirmed civs, and the vote for me which makes 5. Only Carmen has voted 5 confirmed civs, and only Queran, Bac, and Bronwyn have voted 4 confirmeds.



By the way, I believe in his case that Queran mentioned he thinks I was buddying up to Bac before his untimely demise. Here viewtopic.php?f=2&t=148&p=19818#p19818, around the time of his large response, he accuses Bac of buddying up to me, and here viewtopic.php?f=2&t=148&p=19818#p19818 (as well as in a number of other posts around the same time) he goes after Bac fairly hard and insinuates that Bac has bad intentions, mainly because Bac asked him to use more everyday language. Just another example of overreaction on Day 2.

Linki and such.

Izett, your point is a good one, but you're forgetting to mention that Bac was Japanified, survived an NK, brought us info about the secret baddie team, and then was NKed. I think that evidence trumps his vote record. Otherwise I'd likely be counting him as bad.

Dallon, how rude of you!

I'm going to vote Carmen. I never liked her role hints in the first place, even though I'm not sure what to make of them now. I was nervous about her after the Finnian fiasco, since so many of us were so sure about both of them, but going back and looking at her Day 1 behavior while writing my Queran post made me think she's likely up to no good. I still think Queran would be even better, but I understand why people won't vote him today. It's clear he won't be lynched and I don't want to throw my vote away. It would be a miracle if Rumpelstiltskin doesn't control it, as much as I've posted today, but I also hope this vote will make the lynch more unanimous to avoid Rumpelstiltskin's influence.

Izett, Bac was never included in my group of suspicious Caillic voters. He never voted Caillic. That group was Queran, Bronwyn, and Carmen. I believe Bac to have been civ, if that helps you any.

Queran, you're right about that first quote being directed at me and not Bac. My apologies. Unclear antecedents again. I still maintain that you went after Bac, and then changed your opinion rather quickly when no one followed you.

I'm glad baby krakens are scared of me. They should be, because they're evil and I try to kill evil things. Not much success yet, though.

And thanks for the tip, Rox! That was pretty awesome.

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:I'd be more convinced you were genuine and not trying to bamboozle us if those links were not to the same post, which they are.

Hah! Be honest, no you wouldn't.

There are actually 4 or 5 posts of you getting on Bac's case. Here is where he accuses Bac of "faulty logic and no uing and deviousness". Keep in mind, this is right after Bac said your Day 2 post about me was suspiciously long and quote-riddled. Here it's "your recent aggressiveness after I hinted at having you under my microscope a bit more" and Bac's supposed evasiveness regarding me. Here Bac is "base covering". After that there's a back-off post here, ostensively because no one else has mentioned Bac this entire time.

The next day you can't decide whether Bac is good or not.

Then yesterday he suddenly is good, and I'm "buddying up'" to him, instead of the other way around. Here and here.

Are the links right, there?

Linki: You seem to have beaten me to this. Really, "less than aggressive"?

PS- How do people do that cool thing where they make the links read as other words? Like, some people can make the word "Here" be a link, for example. That would save space, and look way cooler.

Ok, here goes. I'll try to keep it concise, which as most of you know isn't something I excel at.

First off, I'll reiterate about Queran's voting record. 4 votes for confirmed civs, and the vote for me which makes 5. Only Carmen has voted 5 confirmed civs, and only Queran, Bac, and Bronwyn have voted 4 confirmeds.

Now, back to Day 1. It seems a common misconception that I was saying Caillic voters were bad because they were saving Jorhan. I was actually very careful about NOT saying that. I was saying there were likely baddie votes among Caillic voters because of the high proportion of votes that came in for him at the end of the Day 1 lynch. I mentioned 3 players that day because they were the 3 of the last 6 total votes that went to Caillic. Those were Carmen, Bronwyn, and Queran.

Carmen had listed her reason for voting Caillic as trusting Shand, and thinking Jorhan was good because he had received an illegal vote. I didn't understand either of these things at the time (nor, do I believe, that I ever got an explanation from Carmen when I asked). In hindsight, I probably should have been giving Carmen a closer look from Day 2, but she escaped my notice in the hullabaloo that ensued.

Bronwyn's vote for Caillic was partly following Queran's lead. He pointed out that Caillic had voted Ameerah while simultaneously hoping she was not lynched. She also said she was pinged that Caillic had not defended himself after receiving his first vote from Shand, a point I was originally confused about due to unclear antecedents. Her response was more or less "I am not connected to Queran and am not bad." Which to me seemed reasonable, so I let it go.

Queran had not given a reason for his vote until asked (which, as he pointed out, was very shortly after he voted). That pinged me and still does, and Queran seems experienced and should know that reasons traditionally go with vote posts. That coupled with the number of late votes for Caillic made me suspect him most highly of the three. Queran's response to my post was more or less similar to Bronwyn's, aside from some name-calling, which I think we can all agree was a bit rude. I was more or less prepared to let this suspicion go as well, until this rather lengthy post. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=148&p=19774#p19774 It points out my aforementioned antecedent confusion and accuses me of "No U-ing" Queran, which is ridiculous. He did mention me in passing on Night 1, and I didn't bother responding. Why? It was a Night 1 ping, which is certainly not unusual in mafia, and it just didn't bother me. I believe this "Who mentioned who first?" is a major point in Queran's recent case against me. Yes, he did mention me first, but if we're looking for the panic of a cornered baddie I think it's clear that he is the one displaying it, not me. It bears noting that Queran dropped a vote for me on Day 2 long after my vote for him, and after it was clear that Jorhan was going down.

By the way, I believe in his case that Queran mentioned he thinks I was buddying up to Bac before his untimely demise. Here viewtopic.php?f=2&t=148&p=19818#p19818, around the time of his large response, he accuses Bac of buddying up to me, and here viewtopic.php?f=2&t=148&p=19818#p19818 (as well as in a number of other posts around the same time) he goes after Bac fairly hard and insinuates that Bac has bad intentions, mainly because Bac asked him to use more everyday language. Just another example of overreaction on Day 2.

Since then my primary ping on him is unhelpfulness. Yes, as he mentioned, he did make the big post listing suspicions on Day 3. Here it is: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=148&p=20104#p20104. It lists Ameerah, whom he does like, and Mainchin and Carmen, whom he does not. My point with that, though, was that it came to late to influence the vote on a day we really needed all hands on deck. Making a large post when it's clear who will die also gives pretty easy outs, and sets up for being able to build a case on anyone you mentioned the next day when the lynch results are out. Other than that, most of his posts (and since there are a lot, you'll either have to read back through them or trust me) from Day 3 on are either back-and-forth with me or throwing out the names Dierdre, Eurolyvn, and Laine, as well as the now deceased Etain and Finnian. My theory is he's trying to see if something sticks. Oh, and he theorized that we would have 2 days in a row, which ended up happening. So either good guess there or good info, I'm not sure which.

That's my case. I think his Day 2 posts are the most useful of what I have, besides his voting record. I guess you'll have to decide for yourselves who is telling the truth. If you want me to respond to anything let me know.

It seems Queran wants to win this little battle between us. If he does, at least please lynch him after me. I would be really depressed if he went for so long being so obviously evil and won.

Also, cool to have so many new/old players rejoining! Welcome.

Ok, if it'll help people I'll put it up. Tomorrow though, since it'll be long and I only have phone access today. As Shand noted, it'll be biased, but I'm ok with that. And Bronwyn, to be more clear I wasn't pinged by your request, which I find totally reasonable and in the spirit of mafia, just by the timing of the request, because it seems to give Rumpelstiltskin and friends a chance to use my words against me, literally

RIPIYWG Bac and Etain. I'm pretty sure Bac was, and was starting to lean that way on Etain.

My favorite Grimm character my be the Big Bad Wolf. "The better to eat you with" is one of the all-time great bad guy lines. And his plan, while nonsensical, is sort of brilliant.

Bronwyn Mightyfeet wrote:Gobsuit, I saw where Queran says he's going to present a case on you today so we can see why he thinks you're suspicious. Will you also layout for us why you are suspicious of him?

I can do this if people want. I have reservations. First, I likely die either way. Either folks believe him and I "win the popularity contest" or he flips bad, everyoje believes I'm civ, and it gets me NKed. Second, why ask me to write a super long and detailed case now, right after Rumplestiltskin comes back into play, after we've had 3 rl sunny periods without him? That super pings me.

That said, if people are set on deciding between the two of us and too lazy or busy to read up themselves, I'll go for it. Anyone else have input on this?

My word order was off. Someone's a bit touchy about their voting record!

EBWOP: My earlier post should have read: "Queran has now voted for 5 civs straight."

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:EBWOP: Counting me and the three Finnian votes :P

Hahaha well played. That's fair, although I'd say I voted for civs thrice, not 3 civs. 3 not 4 because you're not a civ.

Laine Crystalsteam wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:

Fane Winebattle wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:For the other three, do you have anything besides their quietness? I'm worried about lynching someone for quietness now; as the Finnian lynch showed us, that can be a mistake.

Not very much to be honest, it's more of a feeling based on their tone, but I find the fact that Dallon jumped into the thread immediately after his name was mentioned a little suspect, considering his lengthy absence before that.

Lyel's excuses have shifted over time, lacking a little in consistency (Although I hate to be too hard on him given how hard a time he seems to be having in RL.)

Grutfud has basically been MIA, missing votes and not saying anything, so he is the one I suspect least of the three right now, although I do think a good strategy for the baddies would be to switch lynches while remaining very quiet in order to throw suspicion on others.

Thanks Fane. I have been musing a bit on these three as well. There's just so little to go on. I agree that the timing of Dallon rejoining is pingy, but I think for now it's probably wisest to give him a chance to establish a thread presence while looking at candidates I have a better feel for.

I also agree that I would almost feel bad putting Lyel up for lynch because of the difficulties he's mentioned. If he's lying to hide baddieness then it's extremely poor form, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that's the case. However, if it is true I still have no idea whether he's good or bad. Same with Grutfud. I think these baddies have shown they're too powerful and too tricky to take a chance lynching someone we can't read (or slightly better, since baddies now outnumber us, but my point still stands).

What are people's thoughts on leading lynch candidates for tomorrow? I know Carmen has still been getting some attention, but who else do people think is on the chopping block, as it were.

Oh! And as a side note for the folks keeping tally at home, I believe Queran has now voted for 5 straight civs. 4 are confirmed and then 1 vote for me. Just sayin'.

That's a horrible thing to say. Lyel wouldn't make up that his father-in-law died. Though you're only saying if, don't even question what happens in real life and if it influences the game.

As for the poll, I like both equally and you can't have one without the other but I'll go for characters.

RIP Finnian. Sorry.

Yeah I also want to make extremely clear that the thought never crossed my mind that Lyel would lie about a family tragedy like his father-in-law's death. Laine is right to say that would be a horrible thing to say. If there was anything about his reasons I would have questioned it would have been the illness, but as I said I haven't seen a single thing to indicate that would be the case.

Queran, I'll continue to refuse to respond to your points against me unless you bring up something truly worth addressing or a large number of players start believing you. You have indeed voted for 5 straight civs. I never said they were 5 different civs. We both know that would be mathematically impossible since you voted Fin twice.

By the way, I don't think I remembered to say RIP Fin. In hindsight I feel bad about not believing you, my instincts (as those of many others) were way off.

Bronwyn, you're right. I was counting both NK victims as civs and assuming the info that there are 3 unrevealed baddie teammates for the witch and one Indy is true. Your count is the correct official one, but my more speculative one puts it at 9-10, assuming the indy is civ-aligned.

Fane Winebattle wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:For the other three, do you have anything besides their quietness? I'm worried about lynching someone for quietness now; as the Finnian lynch showed us, that can be a mistake.

Not very much to be honest, it's more of a feeling based on their tone, but I find the fact that Dallon jumped into the thread immediately after his name was mentioned a little suspect, considering his lengthy absence before that.

Lyel's excuses have shifted over time, lacking a little in consistency (Although I hate to be too hard on him given how hard a time he seems to be having in RL.)

Grutfud has basically been MIA, missing votes and not saying anything, so he is the one I suspect least of the three right now, although I do think a good strategy for the baddies would be to switch lynches while remaining very quiet in order to throw suspicion on others.

Thanks Fane. I have been musing a bit on these three as well. There's just so little to go on. I agree that the timing of Dallon rejoining is pingy, but I think for now it's probably wisest to give him a chance to establish a thread presence while looking at candidates I have a better feel for.

I also agree that I would almost feel bad putting Lyel up for lynch because of the difficulties he's mentioned. If he's lying to hide baddieness then it's extremely poor form, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that's the case. However, if it is true I still have no idea whether he's good or bad. Same with Grutfud. I think these baddies have shown they're too powerful and too tricky to take a chance lynching someone we can't read (or slightly better, since baddies now outnumber us, but my point still stands).

What are people's thoughts on leading lynch candidates for tomorrow? I know Carmen has still been getting some attention, but who else do people think is on the chopping block, as it were.

Oh! And as a side note for the folks keeping tally at home, I believe Queran has now voted for 5 straight civs. 4 are confirmed and then 1 vote for me. Just sayin'.

Fane Winebattle wrote:RIP Finnian. So our vote deductions have been incredibly horrible so far. I think we need to go in an entirely different direction. The baddies are toying with us by sowing suspicion on the people they are protecting. Reading the thread, the following people still strike me as acting strange and I would like to see them discussed over the night and following day period.

Queran: A lot of people were looking at him early on, but the suspicion sort of dried up. I still think he seems shifty.
Lyel: I know he's been dealing with personal issues, but that doesn't automatically make him good and he hasn't really said anything.
Dallon and Grutfud, both of whom have been very quiet.

I tend to trust Bac, Bronwyn and Etain. Gobnait has been been very helpful, but has also led us down some wrong paths, so I think he needs to be watched.

Thanks for this! (Well, not so much the last paragraph. What wrong paths have I led anyone down? I thought the only path I had led was trying to have Queran lynched. Glad to see someone else sees something there, maybe I'm not totally crazy.) For the other three, do you have anything besides their quietness? I'm worried about lynching someone for quietness now; as the Finnian lynch showed us, that can be a mistake.

Anyway, I'm sorry if I seemed testy before. I didn't know you were a replacement, obviously.

Rhinfrew, NO U much? I mentioned briefly that one of your posts had pinged me and said clearly that it was far from conclusive, and now suddenly I'm 'setting you up for a lynch tomorrow' or however you put it? I need to be able to discuss things that seem strange to me in thread in order to find baddies. Sharing ideas doesn't make me bad. Don't get your sash in a knot.

And to everyone: Rumpelstiltskin's power is active only during day powers following nights where he's chosen a word. It says so in the powers list. So feel free to write as you will every night.

I'll be going with characters. Just watch The Office series finale. They did next to nothing for 9 years, but it was a great show because of the characters.

Fane Winebattle wrote:I'm pretty convinced of Finnian's guilt, an given Rumpy's ability, I think it would be foolish to spread the vote out.

*votes finnian*

Rumpelstiltskin's ability isn't in play, Fane. There was no night after yesterday.

It's frustrating that so many players are paying so little attention.

No point in dragging it out. Finnian will die no matter what I do, but here's my stamp of approval. Hope we're right!

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:There is a group (yes group, given that the heading is "The Wicked OneS") whose abilities have been secrets. This grim revelation means that I have to reevaluate everything.

For now, however, I will astrally project myself into the mind of someone a thousand years from now and blow up a shit ton of robots in hopes that answers come from that.

I just wanted to take a second to point this out. If you've believed Bac's info and the surrounding discussion, we've known about this for days now. This strikes me as a possible case of playing dumb. It's something I'd say if I were on the secret baddie team. Not saying you are, Rhinfrew, just that it pings me

Dierdre Wonderbird wrote: What I wonder about also is, if Finnian is a baddie, let's say The Nixie, and the secret is that he was going to survive the first attempt on his life but in return, there would be no night phase when it happened, it might explain why suddenly yesterday there were people talking about low posters. Baddie teammates would have been preparing for the next day, knowing that that day they would not be able to hide behind Rumple.

the point being, if we lynch Finnian and he's the Nixie, I'll be strongly eyeing every single person who suddenly had "new ideas" yesterday as his teammates. In fact, I'd say that puts him aaead of Carmen on my personal lynch list for today.

This analysis seems very, very insightful. Glad to hear your thoughts on FInnian, but I think the Nixie stuff you mentioned is even more valuable.

I read the Nixie Grimm tale, and in it the Nixie kidnaps a prince into her underwater lair. When a princess comes to save him she throws gold into the water, and the prince pops out of the water. Then the Nixie gets mad because she was tricked and tries to drown them.

My point being, it seems extremely plausible to me that the Nixie's power would be getting something of value (survival) in exchange for giving something (another Day period). It's far from certain, but I very much like the theory.

In summary, I think at least 3 and probably all 4 of the following 4 are bad (in alphabetical order): Ameerah, Carmen, Finnian, and Queran. I personally would be happy to vote any of the 4 today, but I think we should discuss all 4 heavily over the next day so we can avoid talking too much when Rumplestiltskin's power come back into play. What are others' opinions of these players?

Also, maybe if we say Rumplestiltskin a whole bunch he'll just go away like in the story.

Bac Wunderelin wrote:

Mainchin Ironbeast wrote:

Shand Azureye wrote:I apologize for not participating much today; work has been brutal, and I haven't been able to give the game as much time as it deserves. I've read through and enjoyed the eloquent, well-thought out recent posts. Unfortunately, and this could also have to do with my shattered confidence -- I really believed Jorhan would flip bad -- I'm still not getting any strong pings. What also makes my hands a bit shaky as I move it towards the vote button is Bac's idea that there may be another secret baddie team lurking. If this is correct, then our situation looks very bleak indeed, and we most certainly need to choose our target wisely today.

Right now, I'm fairly certain that Gobnait is a townie (else, he's the best baddie I have ever played against), and I'm feeling good about Bac as well. Despite the Jorhan debacle, I still feel uneasy about Queran, but that may just be because of his style. His eloquence and verbosity I appreciate more than anyone else's in the game, and at the same time, it's these same qualities that also make me a bit apprehensive about his agenda. I certainly don't have anything concrete against him though, and while I don't feel comfortable voting for him today, my eyes are ever set on him.

Ameerah Frolicstag wrote:Mainchin - Table switcher. First to propose the idea that there is at least one mafia at each table and that the hosts may have decreed that. Says he will likely randomize Day 1, then ultimately decides to vote for a low poster, Gaerwen. He defends Laine here when Laine began taking heat for his posts and vote Day 1. He has a couple of posts defending Gobnait (maybe buddying up to him??). And I was somewhat bothered by his post here. At the end he says he will try to find some time to read back and form some opinions of his own, but barring that will vote for "the most satisfactory argument from my esteemed fellow creatures." To me this reads like a nice little set-up for being able to place the blame on someone else's case if a civvie gets lynched again.

Thank you for the synopses Ameerah, that helped me a lot. I've my eyes on all the three players you mention (Mainchin, Laine, and Carmen). Of the three, I find Mainchin the most interesting at this point, especially coupled with the point that Rhinfrew brought up earlier. Mainchin voted for Miyuki at a point when Jorhan was all but sure to be lynched. This could be a simple baddie tactic to stay out of trouble, knowing (as only a baddie can know) that the town would come after the Jorhan-voters when, eventually, it would be revealed that Jorhan was good. This is a minor ping, however, and truth be told, I'm almost as lost today as I was on day 1. I do have to vote soon because I don't know if I will be able to get on the internet before the poll closes. I will give it another hour or so, and hopefully a second read will bring something to my attention that I might have missed in my first. Failing that, I'm leaning towards a Mainchin vote today.

I have never ever voted for Myuki!

I found this while rereading mainchin. I find it interesting. Ameerah and Shand both are kind of (looking at it in retrospect) trying to cast suspicion against Mainchin. I also find it WAAAAAY interesting that Ameerah mentions someone buddying up to Gobnait. Buddying up is not the totally commonest expression, in Mafia. I did a search of it at RM and came up with 66 matches. Second time this game I see someone discussing "buddying up" in relation to Gobnait.

Personally I have no connection to Gobnait, but a few people seem realllly invested in trying to plot connections for him. Shand also specifically says he would like to plot connections for Mainchin, Carmen & Laine based on Ameerahs post. Now, Mainchin was a civvie. My initial suspicion of Laine was based on Jorhan being bad, which he was not. A lot of people, including me, seem to see potential civ credentials in Carmen.

This post is one of theose things that make you go hmmmm, as far as I am concerned.

Today we have a chance to have a lynch free of fear of talking and free of Rumpys manipulation. We really need to talk a lot today, and get our cards and suspicions on the table.

Thank you for this!

Bac, I'm sorry if it seems like I'm "buddying up" to you. When I'm trying to decide whether what a player says is true, I base my judgment on 2 things: 1) whether their theory makes sense or I can trust any info they're putting out, and 2) whether I trust your motives. Since, after your insanification and subsequent kill attempt you mentioned, I believe you are civ, for you I only have to look at #1 when reading your statements. This makes me more likely to trust you. However, I hope other players will judge my statements on their own merits when deciding whether I am civ, regardless of whose opinions I ask for.

I think it also bears mentioning that you were originally accused of buddying up to me, by Queran, a few days ago.

I'm very convinced that there is in fact a plot to create connections for me that I do not have, as you said, and I believe it's pretty clear that Queran is leading it. I'll pull the quote if anyone needs me to, but Queran used this tactic yesterday with Mainchin when he said that if Carmen flipped bad he also believed Mainchin would. The fact that Ameerah and Queran have used the same terms, your silencing after mentioning Ameerah, and her mentioning a Carmen and Laine connection, makes me think that Ameerah likely does not have civ interests at heart either. I can't be sure, but I think Queran and Ameerah believed that Carmen would flip bad, and then saw the opportunity to secure a civ lynch the next day by linking her to Mainchin and Laine.

EBWOP: I voted Finnin, since he seems to have replaced Finnian on the poll.

Wow, 2-2-2 so far! Avoiding that spread is going....poorly. I have to choose now and then sleep. I will go Finnian for reasons previously stated. I still feel worst about him. And I'm not sure about the "subtle push" being discussed, but I think the possibility is there. Linki #2: wait, is the "subtle push" away from Carmen or Finnian?

Linki #1: Miyuki, can you explain why the scenario you put forth is the only way a nogoodnik would dare hint at a civvie role? And the hint you seem to have picked up is a different role than the one I had been reading. Since when are role hints ok, anyway? Every other game I've played, hints have made people want to lynch the person more, not less.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Bac's thoughts on Ameerah are right, as well. Occam's Razor says silencing and then killing him to stop him talking about her is a solid plan. But given the current spread I think that's a debate for tomorrow.

Linki #3: Wow Queran, prolific today!

6

Finnian Metalfox wrote:No, it was a terrible post. Quiet you.

Also, I find it weird no one has questioned Anchorete's absence but me. I guess s/he said s/he would be sporadic, but 0 posts since Day 2... Just a thought, eh?

8

Definitely a fair point to bring up Anchorete. Lyel, Dallon, and Grutfud also fit that bill, more or less. It's partly just because you haven't made a sunny period poll yet and partly just bad luck that everyone's looking at you, I imagine. However, it's also true that most of them (and I forget whether tat includes Anchorete) at least said "I'll be busy" or given some sort of explanation in advance.

Bac, I'm inclined to trust your instincts at this point, at least to some extent. What makes you think Ameerah besides your Japaneseification after mentioning her, and who else would you consider over Finnian for today?

5

Miyuki, thanks for pointing out those posts. I don't know what to say about the possible role hints; they're certainly subtle enough to be seen as unintentional if one wants.

What are people's thoughts on other possible nogoodniks? My spreadsheet still has too many holes because of inactives; I'm not sure whether nogoodniks are more likely among low posters, no-shows, or actives.

4

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:Wait, aren't you Carmen? Are we doing third person all of a sudden?

11.

Linki - WIFOM always gets on my nerves, not because of those who use it, but just in general the sort of infinite possibilities of bluffs, double bluffs, tripple bluffs etc ad nauseum. As it stands I have 3-4 really locked in suspects, and those would be in no particular order Mainchin, Carmen, Finnian, and Gobnait

Still 11.

Yeah Carmen can't be the word, it's a proper name.

And I was feeling really good about our candidates until this post. I'm certainly a civ, and I have been reading Mainchin as very civ as well. This worries me that neither Carmen or Finnian is on Queran's (evil) team. That doesn't stop them from being SKs or on the other team though, so I guess it's ok.

All things considered, I'm still ok with choosing either of them, but could we please save a bunch of time and just lynch Queran? Are people really still reading our ongoing debate as civ-civ? I just don't see how it's possible, we've been at each other's throats now for going on 3 days. No one else sees his posts as un-genuine?

3

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote: And Rhinfrew, if I'm reading you right you've been talking about Grutfud, not Finnian, right? Grutfud is the one who participated in the democratic process on Sunny Period 2 but not 1 or 3. I suppose it's a remote possibility that they are the SKs and that, having both not participated, were unable to kill, but it just seems counterintuitive somehow. Personally I doubt that that explains the lack of NKs, especially since there should be two groups doing them per moony period.

2

No Gobby, I'm talking about Finnian. But I had not noticed Grutfud. According to Shand's chart, Grutfud missed the odd ones, after which followed peaceful evenings. Good catch.

Say, how do you know who is supposed to kill when?

7

I don't know who is supposed to kill when; I am making assumptions based on past games, which I admit could be totally wrong. I am used to SKs NKing each moony period, and, if there are 2 teams of evildoers, one killing every even moony period and one killing every odd moony period.

There are too many inactive players, I can't even venture guesses on enough players to come up with numbers of who should be evil and who shouldn't that I have any confidence in....

Miyuki, I still think both Carmen and Finnian may be bad. I don't think Carmen's posts last moony period redeem her yet, but at least she's cited specific reasons for absence (field trips and doctor's appointments) and seems willing to play along a little bit.

I guess on reflection, part of me just wants to lynch Finnian because of his contrariness. That's not really fair of me, because it has no real bearing on his win conditions, and if I thought he was on our side I'd try to be patient with him. But if they're both evildoers, as I believe, it seems just as good a reason to choose him first as any.

And thanks for your answer, Izett. That clears things up.

2

Izett, I'm not totally clear on what you're saying in your post; could you clarify?

And Euro, I think the case on Finnian (at least as I see it) has less to do with missing our daily activity correlating with NKs (I think you're right to assume a teammate could send in the NK). It's more that he's been around and posting but isn't contributing to the game in any way.

And Rhinfrew, if I'm reading you right you've been talking about Grutfud, not Finnian, right? Grutfud is the one who participated in the democratic process on Sunny Period 2 but not 1 or 3. I suppose it's a remote possibility that they are the SKs and that, having both not participated, were unable to kill, but it just seems counterintuitive somehow. Personally I doubt that that explains the lack of NKs, especially since there should be two groups doing them per moony period.

2

(1)

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:

Finnian Metalfox wrote:

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:The aloof disinterested act is starting to get pretty tired.

Mainchin Ironbeast wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:And any reason you'd be up for a Carmen lynch but not a Finnian one? He missed the poll again yesterday and didn't defend himself or offer any thoughts or suspicions, even though he was on the chopping block. Either he's the least concerned mafia player I've ever met, not voting is related to his power somehow, or he's simply mocking us.

Either suits me as long as we get a general agreement. Finnian just doesn't seem to care which in itself is quite worrying.

This is a game. Games take second priority to other things. I have stuff going on lately and frankly deducing every detail in a mafia game isn't going to be placed above all other things. So I'll do what I please and if you wanna lynch me for it go for it. Waste a day period on a civ. I'll try and get votes in but me not looking much I haven't had much to say so I'd probably get jumped on for those too. I don't want to be replaced because this is just temporary, but whatever.

Not asking for every detail, just asking for a little more than "lol dunno "

If you didn't have enough time to play, or don't want to, then don't sign up, as it's unfair to those who actually do.

I agree with Queran here. And about yay for no NK!

Sounds good. I just wanted to double check that was what you meant.

Wow, I just realized I hadn't absorbed any of Page 15 since I read it at 5am. There's some good stuff in there. Mainchin, you say you're sure your read on Laine is right?

Eurolyvn, very insightful analysis about Carmen and Fane. I'm now also surprised she never gave Fane a closer look. In my personal opinion, Finnian is still a slightly better candidate for lynching tomorrow, but if you and others want to go for Carmen instead then I'm with you.

And any reason you'd be up for a Carmen lynch but not a Finnian one? He missed the poll again yesterday and didn't defend himself or offer any thoughts or suspicions, even though he was on the chopping block. Either he's the least concerned mafia player I've ever met, not voting is related to his power somehow, or he's simply mocking us.

You're right, Mainchin, it is possible it was civvie. If Bac's info about the hidden roles is right (and I for one think it is) then there's one hidden civ role with a chance at that, compared to 4 hidden baddie roles and the nixie's secret power. I just don't like the odds

Oh, and I'll go with rune, I guess. Runes are a common form of tattoo among my people and, indeed, endow us with many mighty powers

So I've been thinking about why no lynch happened yesterday, and I can't think of a single civ reason. It has to be either secret baddie power or prize/night poll related, right? What do people think about which of those two? I think just given the odds and the result, it's probably a safe bet that at least one of Carmen and Finnian is bad, if not both.

I learned in a previous game that if someone is nearly certainly bad and escapes a lynch, it's best to try again to make sure. Feel free to disagree with me on that strategy, though. I propose the following: during the night period today we discuss and come to a conclusion about who to lynch, and try to have most of our thoughts on the table before the day starts to avoid Rumpel's power. If people think that'll hamper the exchange of ideas too much feel free to say so; I'm also game for running a 'normal' lynch if we get enough consensus to minimize the chance of manipulation.

Queran Gloomsoul wrote: A) Despite the backhanded schemey way she went about it, Gobnait is right to say we will benefit from spreading our focus.

And thanks, Queran. I will caution that I think spreading votes too much (like I think we did yesterday) is dangerous, but some divergence in ideas is better than a unanimous lynch like Day 2.

Hmmm....not sure what to make of the no-kill. How is Bac still insanified??? I was looking forward to hearing from him.

It seems I owe Queran an apology. I never expected you to actually post your thoughts, and I was wrong. One concern I had was that you would post too late for your thoughts to be of use, and I was right about that. I think it shows a lack of regard for the civvie cause, since you had plenty of time earlier in the day and spent it giving yet more reasons for why I'm more evil than you, which as I mentioned was pointless. However, better late than never, and I'm glad to have heard from you on something else.

Hmm, and Fane slipped a vote in there for Carmen while I was Linki'ed. Fane, I wish you'd have said something. I may have been persuaded to join you in voting Carmen, if only to avoid spreading votes too thin.

I just need to decide. Going with Finnian, because his total unwillingness to provide any suspicions whatsoever reminds me a lot of Queran. Speaking of whom, he never did come back and mention those other names he said he'd bring up, despite the fact that this lynch is vital if Bac's numbers are right and has required a lot of discussion.

I'm holding onto hope that Carmen may say something useful once the rl concerns she mentioned clear up.

Linki: Oh no, Mainchin! If you're civ we can't afford to have you throwing away panic votes because of clock errors! Can you give further insight into what made you go with Etain, who just joined us, rather than someone about whom we have information to go on?

Linki x2: Carmen, I think others found random votes for Jorhan strange as well. If I'm understanding Ameerah's point here, I think she's asking why vote him on Day 2 if you thought he was the target of a plot on Day 1, as you are implying?

Well, it's getting near the time I need to vote and with no clear consensus yet. I think Carmen and Finnian are equally good candidates for a lynch at the moment. It worries me a bit that no one has defended either of them, because I can't help but wonder if someone with BTSC would be getting support from their team in this situation. However, on the merits of their own play (Carmen's inconsistencies and Finnian's 'cavalier' (good word, whoever that was!) disregard for polls), they could each merit my vote. I find the discussions around Laine and Mainchin interesting as well, though neither of them is likely to receive my vote today.

I also wanted to mention that Dallon has been MIA recently. I don't think it portends evil on his part, but someone had mentioned today's inactives and I thought he should be included.

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:But not even willing to venture the slightest guess about anyone else?

When my attentions are less distracted I'll offer my thoughts on others. Probably later this afternoon.

Maybe I should be more clear about why I'd like to hear your thoughts. The first reason is my suspicion of players who haven't contributed to discussion (see Finnian). You haven't contributed since Day 2 other than to say "I'm not evil, you're evil!". I thought I'd give you a chance to try to help the civs instead of just defending yourself. A shame you're too distracted.

The second reason was that if you're bad as I believe, your posts may give some clue as to who your teammates are. Unfortunately, while all of your posts are directed at me we're unlikely to get anywhere useful. We need good lynch candidates today, and I believe you're using our argument as a distraction to stop others from discussing and to stall giving any opinions that could later incriminate you.

Either way, I think it's apparent neither of us will be lynched today, so how about we drop our differences together and work on something mutual instead of beating a dead horse?

Bac, I'll have to get the translation on your latest post later. In the other one Eurolyvn translated were you saying you think Laine is bad? It looks like maybe you were talking about his day 1 vote for you. Again, quote if I'm right. Is there anything else making you think he's bad? I know that may be tough to answer given your current state

But not even willing to venture the slightest guess about anyone else?

Thanks for that translation, Eurolyvn. Bac, are yoy trying to say you think there are 2 civvies, and indie, and four baddies among the secret roles? If you're allowed, quote this paragraph if I'm right.

If that's true we are in big, big trouble. 8 baddies and 2 sk's, with 10 surviving civs (or 9 and an indy) by my count. We shouldn't be able to swing a stick without hitting a baddie right now. Numbers like that may make it hard to get consensus without baddie influence. Maybe it would be useful to talk about who does seem trustworthy as well, instead of just who to lynch

Queran, interesting that you're unwilling to mention other pings beside me.

Oh and Bac, I had no luck using the site you suggested to translate your statements, except for the one saying "Try this website." So that's frustrating.

Bronwyn Mightyfeet wrote:Gobnait, could you share what you are still seeing about Queran? I thought the suspicion was based on her vote for Caillic in that it was supposedly saving a bad Johran. Since that turned out to not be true I'm curious what you are seeing at this point.

Yeah, my original case against Queran carries next to no weight now. Basically my ping now is that I wasn't at all satisfied by his defenses from the morning of Day 2 on. In fact, they've reeked of insincerity to me. The most notable example is his accusation that I was "NO U"ing him and then later deciding to vote me after I had voted him, when it was already clear Jorhan was going to die. That, plus continuous efforts to call me a liar and characterize my statements using mafia jargon (ie NO Uing, backtracking, and others, iirc) instead of having a reasonable discussion about why he's not bad, make me think he is.

However, I think that for today I'll have to look elsewhere for my vote, since others don't seem to share my thoughts and I'd prefer not to throw mine away.

Welcome, Etain! Good to see you, Feline Diviner of Things Undone.

I for one am satisfied by Mainchin's reply to my query, and since I haven't been pinged by anything other than his switch he's out of contention for my vote for the time being. I don't know what to make of Rhinfrew's case on Miyuki since I had been reading them both civ; I think for now it just means he(?) will bear a bit of watching.

I'm frustrated, disheartened, and pinged by Finnian's refusal to contribute suspicions, or really anything of use. Same goes for Laine, to a slightly lesser degree. I also wish Fane would show up and say something. I know he says he's new and seemed to be lacking some confidence, but I think he could contribute to the discussion. The timing of people mentioning pings about him and him disappearing from the thread doesn't give me warm fuzzies, though I don't think it's a major ping yet.

At this point I could see my vote going to Queran if others share my suspicions, or to Carmen or Finnian. I don't think that it's surefire that either Carmen or FInnian is bad though, and my own lack of confidence worries me.

And Queran, what are your thoughts on today's lynch? I'm unlikely to believe you, but I saw that you were on and am curious about what you have to say

I agree that we need to hear more from her to know what she's thinking. The idea that she voted Jorhan to clear herself is a clever one.

I've reread most of the posters in the 10-15 post range now. My impressions are far from set in stone, especially with so little to go on, but I thought I'd share anyway.

I don't know what to make of Mainchin yet. His table switch on Day 1 seemed suspect to me (who had incentive to switch? Only baddies, to change their team distribution. All tables were full, and we didn't know what would happen regarding the vote, so there was no reason for a civ to switch). He hasn't said anything super pingy since then though, in my opinion.

Rhinfrew has seemed pretty helpful, and I'm also reading kind of civ on Ameerah, Izett, and Euro Livin' at this point. With a very low degree of certainty, as I said.

I feel less good about Finnian, who has put forward no game-related ideas in any form so far. I'm very torn on Fane, who says he's new, and Lyel, who cited rl reasons for low participation. My thoughts on either of them would be pure guesswork

Does anyone else have a read on the players I mentioned that they'd like to share? I'm trying to generate discussion about players who haven't been discussed much so far