The Syndicate

Gunther

Might as well.

We guess that Group 1 will guess there are two "baddies" in prison with us. Our wager is $100. Final answer.

Gunther

Even before I reviewed my notes, I was thinking 2. It feels like a safe and smart number.

Gunther

Prisoner 208986 wrote:It just occurred to me that maybe you can't discuss that 813 because it happened in the main thread. No modkills!

No, I just couldn't remember the specifics of the "seemer" discussion. I checked the role list here and it's pretty obvious. One of the Police roles can appear as any role he or she wants when lynched.

Prisoner 483934 wrote:Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

That's the 100-point question, isn't it? What would you (and anyone else) have guessed before my post?

Gunther

Okay, so here's the scoop y'all. I took a bunch of notes during our one day in the game on who got lynched (which means arrested) by the town during day phases and who got thrown in jail or killed at night. This should help us rationalize how many possible "baddies" are in the slammer with us. If you want all the "gory details" open up the spoiler section. Otherwise just skip down to my answer.

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

ORIGINAL PRISONERS (11):
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

Our prison threads began on Day 2, meaning that any one being thrown in prison on Day or Night 1 are among us. This means that both Diiny and Tranq are among the original prisoners. Diiny was lynched and Tranq arrested at night. I have no idea which prisoner they are/were, nor would I be allowed to reveal that information if I knew it. We don't know if any of the original prisoners qualify as "baddie plants," so I am operating on the assumption that there were no such "plants."

DAY 3

Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

Only one player joined us in prison on Day 3 and that was Prisoner 980854, who was actually RadicalFuzz and they were revealed to be a baddie upon the Day 2 lynch. No one was arrested on Night 2.

DAY 4

Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 888206
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

On Day 4, there was once again just one player joining us, Prisoner 888206. This person was Long Con, who was lynched Day 3 and revealed to be Team Sockface. He was later "modkilled" for breaking the rules and his Prisoner identity was revealed to all.

DAY 5
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 888206
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

This was our big jailbreak day but we still had new inmates in our ranks. Prisoner 331347 and Prisoner 483934 joined us. I have reason to believe both of them are good because Agleaminranks was lynched and revealed to be Team Sockface Day 4 and Metalmarsh89 was arrested Night 4. We do not know Metalmarsh's team but since it seems teams Sockface and Daisy cannot arrest players, he must be good. We do not know which is which nor are we allowed to out them if we do.

During out jailbreak, Prisoners 509378 and 740359 were paroled. It is unclear if they are still active in the game, dead, or re-arrested. Prisoner 888206 was modkilled for breaking the rules. Prisoners 379949, 513538, and 980854 were all killed Night 5 but we do not know by whom.

DAY 6

Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 6, we found ourselves back in prison with three new inmates: Prisoner 153930, Prisoner 219747, and Prisoner 606386. We know that Dragon D. Luffy was lynched and revealed to be Team Sockface. The other two prisoners must have been arrested by the Police Night 5, so we can assume that they are good. We do not know which prisoner is Dragon D. Luffy, nor should we speculate or out them if we know which prisoner they are. That would be against the rules.

DAY 7
Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 7, we found ourselves with two new inmates: Prisoner 126993 and Prisoner 419713. We don't know anything about the circumstances by which they came to the prison, nor are late arrivals allowed to reveal any timeline events from the "game thread." We don't need anyone else getting "modkilled" you know. If we assume one was lynched and one was arrested, then we can assume that at least one of these two inmates could be a lynched "baddie." So as of Day 7, there could be only one baddie among us.

DAY 8

Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 541395
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 792787
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 8, we also only received two new prisoners to this cage of ours. Prisoner 541395 and Prisoner 792787 joined us for the day of what should have been the easily-winnable foreign language challenge. With the operating assumption that the two "families" cannot arrest players, then we are left with the conclusion that only one of these two could be a lynched "baddie," thereby raising the potential number of "baddies" among us to two.

DAY 9

Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 541395
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 714386
Prisoner 792787
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

Ah, the present day, if you will. Today we are joined by just one new prisoner: Prisoner 714386. We do not know if they were lynched or arrested, so we have to assume it possible that they are a lynched "baddie," which brings our grand total of potential "baddies" among us to three.

Now there is one caveat to all this. I believe that somewhere along the line it was made mention that there was something called a "seemer" role that can make itself look like another role when lynched. Take that with a grain of salt.

So there you have it. If the "game thread" players got really lucky, the maximum number of possible baddies among us is three coming from the Day 6, Day 7, and Day 8 lynches, with the asterisk and footnote that there could have been a "seemer" in play.

Now we must ask ourselves this- do we think that the "civvies" got lucky enough to lynch three of the Police in three consecutive lynches or possibly go two out of three with a possible "seemer" lurking among us?

My best guess would be that there are two baddies among us in the prison population. What does everyone else think about that, given the information I provided?

Gunther

Alright, here's where it would help to have a note-taker in Group 1. I will provide my analysis in just a little bit. Obviously we have to bet 100 on this one to reach our goal.

Gunther

Also, since Group 1 is on the same wavelength, I would encourage everyone here who has not yet voted (and those willing to change their vote) to vote for Prisoner 219747. If the next challenge requires full prisoner participation, we know that we cannot count on 219747 at all.

Gunther

Hello? Hosts? It's now 10:00 Central, an hour after the deadline. Can we get some results up in here? I'm the boss. Need the "info."

Okay, so I'm not really the boss in this situation but it felt good to say. Just eager to get our hands on our next (and judging by the time remaining, final) questions.

Gunther

Don't want to be "picky" but it's now 9:19 am Central. Sooo....

Gunther

Prisoner 277058 wrote:I'm also sad we missed the layup of the 219 answer.

I wouldn't call our third question a lay-up. We may have over-thought the question but there were legitimate concerns as to what the other group would pick.

And honestly, this is a challenge that I don't think Group 1 can fault us for losing. We are literally guessing what their answers would be. There is no level of "intentionality" to this challenge. It's kind of like our Day 4 challenge- the degree of guesswork is rather high. We will just have to wait and see what the deadline is on the next question. If it's the final one, then we will have to bet for the win.

Gunther

Hosts: is it 9:00 eastern or central?

Gunther

Shit. I haven't got a clue on this one. Looks like we'll need to wager big on the next one. Any one have any thoughts? We haven't been discussing the Warden's identity much.

Gunther

We're past the deadline. How did you we do?

Gunther

Prisoner 219747 has not posted at all since he or she joined us in prison on Day 6. The Day 6 and Day 7 challenge did not require full participation from the prison populace, so we simply looked down on 219 for not even trying. The Day 8 challenge required everyone's participation. Because 219747 was AWOL again, we lost the challenge.

Prisoner 331347 also did not post during the Day 8 challenge, so they also bear responsibility for our loss. 331347 also failed to post during Day 7 but did contribute three posts to Day 6.

Prisoner 153930 is noteworthy because he or she joined us on Day 6 and basically said we could shank them first when it came around to it because they essentially want out of the game. 153 posted once on Day 6, twice on Day 7, but did fulfill the posting quota on Day 8, albeit with the one English posting "gaffe."

Given that 153930 was gracious enough to fulfill the quota, it shows that he or she is at least willing to do the bare minimum to help the rest of us. As for 219 and 331, it seems they do not care, so it may be best to "shank" those who won't even bother to show up before eliminating those who at least show up begrudgingly.

Gunther

Thank you for the input, 483. I'd like to hear from a few more people before I make my mind up and add my two cents. We've got time.

Gunther

Prisoner 277058 wrote:Hear me out on this. We should wager zero. There are more than one inactive prisoners and even with 15's mess up I dont feel comfortable that we can correctly guess this

This is good to consider. I listed the "post counts" during yesterday's challenge but it was not unanimous on who to shank if things went haywire. I advocated for 153930's shanking if his or her post in English, under the impression that that alone would cost us the challenge. It seems I was wrong about that but the incident could be fresher in other prisoners' minds because of my strong stance at the time. We also do not know if any of the Group 1 prisoners took notes on the information that I posted.

I would agree that caution is necessary given the uncertainty of the information Group 1 retained.

11:00 p.m. Central is quite a long time from now, which means we may only get two or three more questions after this one. I suspect the questions might get harder from here on out. Let's mull this one over for a few hours and get some group input. We may want to consider a lower bet (10 or 25) since we "overachieved" on question number two.

HOSTS: Can you tell us how many more questions are scheduled after this one?

Gunther

It is now noon, Central Time. How did we do?

Gunther

I think this was a reasonably wise decision, 277. This feels like it could be the closest to a "gimme" that we could possibly get.

Gunther

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Prisoner 813142 wrote:Question for our lurking hostess: Does Group 1 know that they can pick from all prisoners and not just their group? Has that been specified to them as it has to us?
Yes.

Riiight. Well, I asked my question to Spacedaisy because she was lurking. I wasn't expecting Sock-Man to answer. In the words of my brother, "That's not your hostess! It's a man, baby."

Gunther

Question for our lurking hostess: Does Group 1 know that they can pick from all prisoners and not just their group? Has that been specified to them as it has to us?

Gunther

Very well. Now we need to discuss our confidence in this answer and turn that into a wager. If it seems obvious to us, then I think a bold full-scale bet may be warranted. After all, why make 50 points when we can earn... 100? *puts pinkie to his mouth*

But if you think it's not a sure thing, we should discuss wager amounts. At the current rate of 6-8 hours for each "Q&A session," we may anticipate somewhere between six and seven questions in total. That means that if we play it safe with 50-point wagers, we could earn a maximum of 300-350 points, assuming we don't get any wrong. Obviously, if/when we reach the 750 point mark we should just bet 0 points from that point on to ensure victory.

Gunther

MovingPictures07 wrote:It's open to all prisoners from both groups.

With this in mind, I am inclined to think that our original prisoners would vouch for my pardon. Prisoner 606386 would certainly come to mind for his efforts in challenges 5 and 6 but I would suspect the original prisoners would be biased in favor of an original prisoner. 920077 proved his mettle the day we were in the game but I'm not sure Group 1 will remember that very well at this point. I think, given my "info dumps" on participation and whatnot, that I might be the first name to come to mind.

I know that 413022 would be an advocate for me and 920077 would probably concede me as the best choice for the purposes of this challenge. Prisoner 640326 seem to have remained on good terms throughout this game as well. I am probably one of the most visible and recognizable original prisoners at this point. Whether they actually would vote for me or not is irrelevant. I suspect that they will want to try to make as easy and obvious an answer for as many of these questions as possible.

Does anyone think there's a chance the non-original prisoners would suddenly participate more and collaborate to select a non-original prisoner out of foolishness, pride, or an attempt to thwart our success in this challenge?

Gunther

Good morning to whoever sees this before the noon deadline.

Group 1 comprises of the following prisoners:
Prisoner 126993 (joined us on Day 7)
Prisoner 331347 (joined us on Day 5)
Prisoner 413022 (an original prisoner)
Prisoner 419713 (joined us on Day 7)
Prisoner 541395 (joined us on Day 8)
Prisoner 640326 (an original prisoner)
Prisoner 714386 (joined us today- Day 9)
Prisoner 792787 (joined us on Day 8)
Prisoner 920077 (an original prisoner)

One thing to consider is just how much the non-original Group 1 prisoners are participating in this challenge. The new prisoner (714386) will not likely have much influence on this answer. Prisoner 331347 has barely participated, so he or she may be a "no-show" as of yet.

Prisoners 126993 and 419713 contributed more than just the bare minimum, so they at least would be slightly more familiar with who is pulling their weight around here. Prisoners 541395 and 792787 were new on Day 8, making it difficult to tell where they are in terms of understanding what we've been through.

Prisoners 413022, 640326, and 920077 are all original prisoners. They've been through it all with us and have all contributed to various degrees across the previous six challenges. I could see them joining together as a decision-making block for this challenge, though I do not know their approximate times for posting activity.

Here is a question to our hosts: Is Group 1 selecting which Group 1 prisoner they would like to parole or is their decision open to Group 2 prisoners as well?

Gunther

Why not?

Gunther

Prisoner 277058 wrote:
Prisoner 813142 wrote:Greetings my fellow irascible inmates. Before we tackle the issue at hand, there is something we need to address. We failed a challenge, providing the Warden with a "win." The Warden getting a "win" makes me angry. When Dr. Evil gets angry, Mr. Bigglesworth gets upset. And when Mr. Bigglesworth gets upset, people DIE! As we work through this challenge, I will be more than willing to post a breakdown from my notes on each player if you actually want to discuss everyone. There are two candidates that I feel are worth eliminating but we can discuss everyone if you wish.

Now then, for the challenge at hand. Is there anyway of finding out a full list of prisoners in our group? Or do we have to rely on prisoners posting to learn who is among us?
Thank goodness you're in this group.

I'm sorry, I've never been good at detecting sarcasm. Is that what what you are projecting here? Or are you glad to have me and my "notes" available to this group?

Prisoner 208986 wrote:813, I'd rather stick to who its been narrowed down to and why. I really don't have an interest of talking through every person. As for the challenge I'm still assimilating. Maybe the "turn right" thought is valid unless someone thinks they have a better answer. This first one looks like 50/50 to me. I can't think of any way we could get info on whose team is the right answer. I am going to see my relative in just a bit and tomorrow I have to drive home so my time for input is limited. Thats just fyi in case you start wondering where I am.

linki: whoa this isn't what I thought.

So choosing between 219 and 331? That works for me.

Prisoner 153930 wrote:If you guys shank me I'll actually be very happy.

Been wanting to break free from this game for ages.

We'll get to you in time, if we find ourselves on a losing streak. For now, it may be best to eliminate the total absentees. They will prevent us from succeeding in challenges where everyone must contribute.

Prisoner 277058 wrote:Team Sockface 50 coins final answer

Interesting guess. My notes aren't very helpful on the other folks. Our group consists of four original prisoners (Day 2) and five newcomers, all of whom joined our ranks on either Day 5 (our day in the game) or Day 6 (our first day back in the slammer). Based on that, I'd say that we're most likely to be more Sockface than Daisy. But that doesn't help us determine what the other group thinks they are comprised of.

Gunther

Greetings my fellow irascible inmates. Before we tackle the issue at hand, there is something we need to address. We failed a challenge, providing the Warden with a "win." The Warden getting a "win" makes me angry. When Dr. Evil gets angry, Mr. Bigglesworth gets upset. And when Mr. Bigglesworth gets upset, people DIE! As we work through this challenge, I will be more than willing to post a breakdown from my notes on each player if you actually want to discuss everyone. There are two candidates that I feel are worth eliminating but we can discuss everyone if you wish.

Now then, for the challenge at hand. Is there anyway of finding out a full list of prisoners in our group? Or do we have to rely on prisoners posting to learn who is among us?

The Syndicate

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Re: [DAY 9] Turf Wars: Prison Edition

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