The Syndicate

Spooky Ghost

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Spooky Ghost

I don't know if "change my mind" is really accurate. I changed my vote.

I knew that if I was right about Hotel Golf then we had already lost, my only chance at any result other than a Delta lynch would have been to convince you to agree in my theory in the last hour of the phase, and even then we'd only have a 1/4 chance of victory. That seemed like a lot of work.

I guess it was more like "acceptance" than "agreement".

Spooky Ghost

well like you said my vote didn't really matter

I wasn't moved by your push for Delta cus I thought you were wrong. I thought lynching Delta was a risky move, and it seemed to me like you were dismissing the risks associated with that choice too easily.

Spooky Ghost

Alpha wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:27 pm Whether or not we were correct about Juliet didn't factor in to my push of hotel golf, or more accurately it factored in equally regardless of whether they were civ or mafia.

In this case "they" refers to juliet

Spooky Ghost

Whether or not we were correct about Juliet didn't factor in to my push of hotel golf, or more accurately it factored in equally regardless of whether they were civ or mafia.

The way I viewed it was that if there were two living mafia then they had to be H&G, if both of them were alive coming into day 5 then we would lose. If there was only one mafia left then eliminating one of H or G would at least narrow down our suspects list moving into night 5 and give us roughly a 50% chance of victory since Delta, despite being a non participant would still cause that day phase to be resolved by tie mechanics rather than being an automatic win for the mafia. At a time when I couldn't go back and look things over or really analyze anything to a satisfying extent, I saw that as our best chance.

I knew that in the case where we had a solo mafia, moving into day 5 with 2 active civs alive would have been more ideal but the fact that the players pushing that idea the hardest were the ones I thought were the most likely to be linked by mafia motive made me really uncomfortable with that.

It appears i was probably wrong... assuming this game doesn't instantly end at the dawn of day 5.

Spooky Ghost

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:27 pm
So to expand on this now: players will be given a sockpuppet account, the names currently will just be the phonetic alphabet, with portraits being the corresponding character. This can change if people are interested in submitting a portrait of a scientist/bodyguard/normal person for themselves. (It doesn’t have to be good I promise)

I know it's late in the game and the game but is it cool if I change my avatar to this picture of the popular scientist character ALF from TV fame?

Spooky Ghost

I'm guessing that based on the fact that Sprityo even bothered to extend the night that we don't have 2 active baddies, if we did then the game would be over as soon as the next kill happened so there'd be no real purpose in extending it.

So it kinda seems like all of the anxiety I had over the last 48 hours was a waste of time.

Spooky Ghost

If this were a competition for who can fuck up sockpuppet usage the most frequently you and I might be tied.

Spooky Ghost

that's like the third time you've done this.

Spooky Ghost

Golf do you think Juliet was a civ or mafia?

Spooky Ghost

jeg....

Spooky Ghost

Also if Golf is the last wolf then the mafia spelled out the word JIG.

Spooky Ghost

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:00 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?
If there's one mafia left and it's not Delta, who is it?

Probably.... Golf? Hotel has seemed genuine today at times and you've seemed genuine forever.

Spooky Ghost

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm I throw my hands up in the air at this point. I hope it's Delta and that just ends the game because otherwise we're pretty much losing since I can't seem to convince any of you all that it's not me.

I really don't have any solid reason not to suspect anyone at this point. I came into this day phase trusting Bravo completely and now I only trust him like 70%> I've been away from a computer for the entire last day phase so I haven't even been able to ISO otherwise I'd have probably been an even more paranoid mess, actually.

Spooky Ghost

I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

Spooky Ghost

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.

Well.... tell me any other pair of players that could be a pair of mafia and I'll redact it.

Spooky Ghost

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:43 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.
When it comes to the kills I think you kind of provide a counter-argument within your argument: "semi" relevant kills. The India kill may have been perpetrated by a team who wasn't cognizant of the potential for his being oracle despite his stance against Echo's claim. They killed Foxtrot who was a consensus suspect. They killed Charlie who was generally read as a civilian, but only alongside two or three other players. I don't struggle to imagine a "semi" engaged mafia team making these kills, not even a solo Delta.

Indeed if there's an argument in Delta's favor on this front I think it'd have to be "there was a kill at all". That's always shaky though.

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pmIf there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.
My concern here is that you're not considering the endgame problem. If a civilian Delta doesn't vote, the civilians cannot possibly win without the aid of a coin flip.

If Delta is a civilian and there are two mafia, lynching him would lose the game. That much is true, and I acknowledge the risk. That's why I feel we're forced to make a judgment call about the likelihood of one or two mafia members.

If one mafia member is more likely than two, which I believe to be the case, then we would be better advised to set ourselves up for success in that scenario. Delta can be the sole mafia and the game would end in victory now. Delta can be a civilian and we won't be stuck relying on a coin at LyLo.

Combine that notion with POE which has left with me with two players who don't have as much or any civilian credibility going for them, Delta and Hotel, and I think it makes sense to lynch Delta now.

Alright I guess that makes sense.

Spooky Ghost

I've switched my vote to Hotel. I'm certain this is the correct choice. If you still think Delta is the best choice then I understand. If we already have a solo wolf or we currently have a living wolf who is partnered with Delta then I think lynching Delta is an okay choice that won't lead to disaster, and if Golf and Hotel are actually the mafia together then I get to have the satisfaction of being right, which in some ways is almost better than a winners banner. B)

Spooky Ghost

Can you summarize the argument for lynching Delta? I feel like I'm missing something

Spooky Ghost

Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.

Spooky Ghost

Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

Spooky Ghost

We have an hour left on maybe the most busy of the year. We need to cobble together some kind of coordination. :x

Spooky Ghost

Today:
Alpha has accused (almost) everyone
Bravo has accused Golf
Delta has accused no one
Golf has accused Delta and Alpha
Hotel has accused Delta and Bravo

I don't see an easily compatible pair other than Golf and Hotel, but if they're mafia then Hotel is going through unnecessary hoops to play around with us because in that scenario even if Bravo and I do our best to win we can only win by winning two ties in a row. Maybe that certainty has given hotel the confidence and security to accuse bravo with relatively little consequence, because as mentioned.... if the mafia is a pair of active players at this point of the game, the worst case scenario isn't actually very bad for them, given a 75% chance to win

I think if we have a pair of mafia left then it has to be team Hotel Golf. I also.... am no longer sure that we're even looking for a pair.

Spooky Ghost

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:19 pm Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

I need to think about this.

If Bravo is mafia then he has pulled wool over our eyes big time which is well within his skillset.... Probably?

I think the kills make a little more sense with the context that Golf is who she appears to be, if she is mafia. I've known that player to as mafia choose to kill less active players instead of confirmed/trusted players, or more active players, to keep the game interesting. Which would explain why Charlie died instead of me or Bravo.

Although..... Those kills would also be smart for a mafia bravo now that I think about it....... because Charlie was close to confirmed civ and I've been following along with Bravo's stuff fairly closely...........

Spooky Ghost

some host shit we all ignored til now wrote:So to expand on this now: players will be given a sockpuppet account, the names currently will just be the phonetic alphabet, with portraits being the corresponding character. This can change if people are interested in submitting a portrait of a scientist/bodyguard/normal person for themselves. (It doesn’t have to be good I promise)

We are all idiots and fools. We could have had interesting and unique avatars this entire time. We could..... spell out fuck.

Spooky Ghost

If Hotel is being authentic about their theory about pushing Bravo and isn't just gonna do a "just kidding" vote at the last minute then.... Maybe there really is a solo mafia?

Spooky Ghost

I feel comforted by the fact that I am going to feel like an idiot no matter who the mafia is.

Spooky Ghost

[mention]Golf[/mention] what are your thoughts on bravo?

Spooky Ghost

Alright so whether this was your intent or not I feel a little less sure that GH is the baddie pair. Which makes our scenario much more complicated and a little more hopeful than I hoped/feared.

Spooky Ghost

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:22 pmSince when am I not considering Golf as mafia? Why are you putting words in my mouth?

It just seems like you aren't. We're at a crucial moment in the game and it's important to consider everyone as suspects.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:44 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:30 pmwe are probably already in lylo.
Why probably? I assume you think Echo was bad, but not Juliet, why? If you already explained this at length and I'm forgetting, my apologies. I haven't had as much time to devote to this game as I would have liked so I may be out of the loop a bit.

I actually just have 0 faith in my own scum hunting ability... And trusting that we were right about something uncertain from the past is a good way to get tricked in the future.

Spooky Ghost

Please tell me more about the Bravo is bad theory

Spooky Ghost

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:28 pm I'm starting to think Bravo is bad.

Oh. Huh.......

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:23 pm
Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:07 am
golf wrote:1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.
I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.
Preparing for the worst case scenario is great.

Here's the thing though. How probable is it that we have two mafia members left versus one? I don't think it's probable.

There is absolutely no downside to voting under the assumption that there are two baddies left. If there's actually a solo baddie left and we pick the wrong one then we get one more chance tomorrow. That's what I've been saying. The probability depends on whether or not we were correct about Juliet and to a lesser extent Kilo, and I want to hope that we were, I really do, but if we weren't correct then we risk mafia on dunking us today.

Spooky Ghost

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:20 pmI'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie... so unless there are two baddies (again, not feeling it, but possible), unfortunately I think it will be a mislynch. Nonetheless, this makes sense to me. I'm willing to vote Delta just because it makes 0 sense to leave an inactive player in LYLO because that's a death sentence.

we are probably already in lylo.

Spooky Ghost

Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:28 amAnd my problem with you right now is you are pushing a very illogical and risky lynch. I know you don't know my role if you are civ, but I do and that is why I am sure of this fact. And if you are the deep wolf you've got to paint Hotel and I as bad because you might have to convince Bravo or the other one of us that it's the other person. So I am I the same place you are. I really want to believe you are tinfoiling but you are making it really hard.

It's not really illogical or risky at all. 2 players suddenly show an unprecedented amount of unity as soon as we get to endgame? That's bad news. This isn't tinfoil. If you can show me evidence that you and Hotel aren't mafia together then maybe that could put me closer to believing in you.

The worst part of this is that even if Bravo and I do work together and align our votes the best we can hope for is two ties, and we have to win both of them to stop the mafia from instantly winning.

Spooky Ghost

[mention]Delta[/mention] if you're around we could really use your input.

Spooky Ghost

It's late and I need to sleep but I want to point out that Hotel also had a pro-lynch-Delta stance paired with nebulous yet for some reason steadfast reasons for trusting Golf.

My running theory rn is that G/H are W/W. I want to hear [mention]Bravo[/mention]'s thoughts on the pairing in light of Golf's recent posts, but as of now I think that either one of them is our best bet.

Spooky Ghost

golf wrote:The absolute only risk here is if two people are bad and neither one is Delta, I just really don't see that as likely no matter how I dice it. Actions do not support that theory.

I guess my problem with this is exactly that. If you and Hotel are mafia then you'd want to push exactly this narrative, because if neither of you (in that circumstance) gets lynched today then this game is yours. The alternative to lynching Delta would be convincing Bravo or me to vote for the other, which would be significantly harder so.... Delta. Right? In the scenario where you and Hotel are the last living mafias, I believe that would be the best move, or at least it's what I would do.

Spooky Ghost

[mention]Golf[/mention] Does your suspecting Delta rely on me being a teammate of theirs, or could Delta be a lone wolf?

Spooky Ghost

I'm not willing to gamble based on the idea that we might have been right about Juliet, no matter how probable it may be.

Spooky Ghost

But why do you think Hotel is civ?

Spooky Ghost

golf wrote:1. 4 players left
2. 2 baddies and 2 civs.
3. They kill one during night, bringing it down to 2 to 1. Game over.

I want to be clear, avoiding this exact scenario is my #1 priority for today. In any other scenario we get a second chance if we get it wrong today, so I'm playing under the assumption that we have two left, because if we don't prepare ourselves for that then that's how we lose.

Spooky Ghost

I want to know why you seem to be so opposed to lynching Hotel.

Spooky Ghost

Those posts posit that Delta may be a mafia member if you and hotel aren't both bad. No one is a suspect only because Delta could be bad. Delta doesn't have any relevant links.

Spooky Ghost

2 currently living and active mafia members is the worst case scenario and lynching Delta is the number one way to not be prepared for it.

It feels really sketchy that Golf and Hotel seem to be so against considering that the other might be mafia at such a crucial time in the game.

Spooky Ghost

I'm not particularly interested in lynching Delta today because if he's civ then we lose Day 5 no matter what. If Delta's mafia then he's probably not a solo inactive mafia because there was a kill last night. If he is a mafia member with a living teammate then lynching his teammate will put us in a better position to win.

Spooky Ghost

I don't think we were ever lynching anyone with the reasoning that they might be Delta's teammate. Delta is a null read.

Spooky Ghost

[mention]Golf[/mention] what are your thoughts on Hotel?

Spooky Ghost

Golf wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:19 pmFrankly Alpha, I am concerned by the fact you are pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta. I am inclined to think Delta is our last baddie, but if I am wrong I'm looking at you for deep wolf.

For clarification purposes, is this a real accusation or are you just saying this to make your theory seem more credible?

Spooky Ghost

I don't know if we can count on Delta to show up and vote on Day 5, so I think today is basically do or die.

Spooky Ghost

I've been considering Golf as an unlikely partner for Juliet because of their self preservation vote for Juliet on day 1. IIRC the votes were spread out enough that Golf could have voted for anyone else to preserve their own safety just as well.

I slept through the last hour or so of that phase and the polls haven't been preserved so I can't recall the exact circumstances. If I'm wrong about the circumstances in which Golf voted for Juliet then Golf is also a possibility.

Oh shoot but Hotel also voted for Juliet day one didn't they.

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