The Syndicate

Absalom wrote:Isaac
Day 1: Third vote on the Samson wagon.
Day 2: Missed.
Day 3: Second vote for Job, after Uzziah, making it a tie with Uzziah.
Day 4: Missed.
Day 5: Fourth vote on Geoff. Uzziah had seven at the time.
Day 6: First vote on Rachel, Ruth had none.
Day 7: Missed.
Day 8: Missed.

Observations
Both Deborah and Issac's Day 3 votes could potentially have been save attempts. Apart from that though, there's not much here to raise my eyebrow. Esther was clearly replaced around Day 4.

Did you miss the fact that Uzz was in the equal lead with two votes when Isaac was the third vote on Samson on day one?

Belshazzar wrote:. So the idea that Ruth was thrown under the bus seems least likely to me, out of all possibilities. Their plan must have simply backfired because, after her move, she got four more votes and got lynched after all.

I agree - the voting on the Ruth day is one I still think could bear a lot of fruit. Same goes for day 3's save of Uzz.

Isaac wrote:I like your analysis on Balaam and Belsh. It helps me open my eyes a bit and look beyond their "super helpful, civ-friendly" play style. There could definitely be some sneaky behind the scenes action going on there.ky:

What do you make, then, of Absalom saying my voting record seems to exonerate me, and my vouching for Balaam?

Absalom wrote:It's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is a Heathen. He tried to save Uzziah on Day 3. On Day 5, is team decided Uzziah was done for and they had to scatter their votes. Ruth voted for Uzziah and he voted for Samuel (who had no chance of saving Uzziah) in quick succession. The vote for Ruth would have been cover, knowing that she had no chance for survival.

Yes, I've always considered it's possible to see a narrative where Belshazzar is bad, although he is contributing strongly and feels town. There isn't yet anything which rules this out.

Esther wrote:I am on the fence about lynching those who are not active like Bathsheba and Judah? They could possible be bad, but if they aren't then we aren't helping ourselves at at. There is power in numbers even if they aren't helping, right? What do you all think about it?

I think Noah is probably still around and if he picks seven active people, he ups the chance of one of them going home if they are civilian, which would be good. That's a starting point. I feel like they are wasted lynches when we still have info to go on.

I feel really very good about you Esther, I hope your recent presence is a sign you will be around to contribute a bit more because I think you have good insight.

@Absalom - you just thought I was shady because I was coming after you I do know what you mean though. I would have looked a lot better if Jeph was bad. I'll add to that, though, that I think there are plenty of thread things to indicate my alignment - not least of which is (on the Ruth day) being the one who pointed out the Lazarus vote, which I think should be considered a second push that got Ruth over the line.

And yeah, I think it is worth doing. I know I'm often tempted to skip self, but if you provide an active analysis of yourself it prevents others from suggesting what you have done is shady, and allows them to analyse your record for themselves (I already know it's sparkling).

Absalom, even though I feel you are confirmed civ, I don't think the right thing to do is skip a voting analysis of yourself, could you add that to the next set?

Absalom wrote:Well, that is somewhat less than ideal.

Yeah

RIP Jonathan.

My alarm was going off for dismissing Esther. She made a valid point - if Jonathan is bad, it's reasonable to expect the possibility a teammate could be in there somewhere.

Actually my first thought on Esther was 'what sense does that make' but of course it does make sense when you consider Jonathan was in the lead when the Jeph train came in.

Rebecca would be my first bet for a teammate if Jonathan is bad, but this isn't about who it would be, this is about your response to Esther, particularly the bits I have highlighted in red...

Samuel wrote:I get voting for Jonathon but your theory regarding if he flips bad then there must be more baddies there seems ill conceived. How many civs have been lynched this game? Did youto through each one of them and kill everyone who voted them because hey, there must be baddies in there, right? Basing it entirely on this vote is silly, especially given the presence of Laz's vote in there. Baddies usually hold their votes to see if they need to save themselves or their teammates, once that clinching vote dropped on there they can safely distance themselves from a civ lynch. I voted Jeph, I suspected him for days for his behavior earlier in the game. I was wrong. But I am a civ. So this logic to me seems ludicrousbecause you are likely to waste lynchestrying to find the baddie if you go simply on one vote when we have a whole game full of information.

Of course, none of this matters if Jonathan isn't bad.

linki - I'm pretty sure those three are empty socks, waiting for feet.

Good luck guys, lets hope Jonathan is bad since it looks like he is the call.

Oh, also, I don't think I mentioned this so sorry if I did. But I'm assuming from looking through the roles that it is more likely that Aaron targetted the heathen's victim, than that the giant was blocked. Epi's post reads like a block to me, but I can't see anything in the roles that would account for that.

Jacob wrote:Lot, you just said you trusted me

I trust you vicariously, because others appear to have understood your role hint, and I don't like to be the idiot who goes after someone everyone else knows is town. I feel out of the loop on you. But if those vouching for you change their minds, my opinion changes. It's like how I expect that rational civvies wouldn't go after Balaam because of how heavily I'm defending him. Sometimes you don't know why everyone thinks someone is civ but you are better off trusting them in your own cluelessness.

Anyway, I still think it a little suspicious that Isaac only really turns up when pressed. If anything is consistent with the concept of 'behaviour when you have teammates', only arriving in the thread when your name is bandied about is one symptom.

And also, lynching Jonathan could tell us some stuff, although I'll go against my own statements here and say 'Jonathan feels genuine'.

Mordecai wrote:I am voting Balaam today.

I'm really beginning to wonder about you. You seem to be bona fide intentionally ignoring the thread to go on your Balaam tirade. You are doing nothing but hurting the civilian cause.

I don't even see the Jacob 'rolehint', and I feel none the wiser. When I asked if others had, all I've seen is Belshazzar and Jephthah. I still don't know what it is. I will say, however, that I made an assumption as to what role he must be rolehinting from the fact other say 'the role must still be alive'. There was only one I could see that fits that bill, maybe two at a stretch. And even with those names, I still don't see the rolehint...

I do feel like Jacob and Isaac still, even now, have the worst looking vote records and despite the fact they seem genuine it could be very informative to lynch one of them. I don't know why Isaac has vanished so far from the radar, though, and as I said yesterday it's interesting that he was here and about when his name was genuinely on the chopping block but as soon as it's not he vanishes again...

Samuel wrote:

Esther wrote:I really think Jonathan is a good bet. He was 6th to vote for Jeph but 19th to vote overall. If he turns out bad, it will give us a small number of people (Jeph voters - Lot, Rebecca, Balaam, Sam, Laz) to look at next and and we are sure to catch at least one more baddie right away. Obviously they are not all bad, but if Jonathan is bad, I bet at least one of the others is too. I am going to go ahead and place my vote on Jonathan today.

I get voting for Jonathon but your theory regarding if he flips bad then there must be more baddies there seems ill conceived. How many civs have been lynched this game? Did youto through each one of them and kill everyone who voted them because hey, there must be baddies in there, right? Basing it entirely on this vote is silly, especially given the presence of Laz's vote in there. Baddies usually hold their votes to see if they need to save themselves or their teammates, once that clinching vote dropped on there they can safely distance themselves from a civ lynch. I voted Jeph, I suspected him for days for his behavior earlier in the game. I was wrong. But I am a civ. So this logic to me seems ludicrous because you are likely to waste lynches trying to find the baddie if you go simply on one vote when we have a whole game full of information.

And my alert goes off.

If Jonathan was bad, then there was a massive lynch train on Jeph when Jonathan had the lead in votes. Even if none of them are bad, why would it be 'ludicrous' and 'likely to waste lynches' to consider someone else might be helping to save him?

I agree that basing it on one vote is silly, but Esther did make a good point. And I say that knowing that me and my friend Balaam's ass are both in that train.

What does the presence of Lazarus vote in there have to do with it?

Esther wrote:I really think Jonathan is a good bet. He was 6th to vote for Jeph but 19th to vote overall. If he turns out bad, it will give us a small number of people (Jeph voters - Lot, Rebecca, Balaam, Sam, Laz) to look at next and and we are sure to catch at least one more baddie right away. Obviously they are not all bad, but if Jonathan is bad, I bet at least one of the others is too. I am going to go ahead and place my vote on Jonathan today.

I can see your point here in that it could have some votes to save Jonathan. It's also a fairly small pool of options given I'm certain of two it isn't.

I definitely think Jonathan is a better bet than Jacob, given Jeph's virtual vouching and the role hint that seems to be flying around.

All these prophecies about the antichrist occupied by time. I missed the ones about the anti-uzziah.

Stephen, I wish you were contributing more than a vote.

Jonathan sounds genuine to me too, but I admit that I haven't done a good job on the gut front.

In that vein, I now trust Jacob, but I also wonder if we are only trusting Isaac because he sounds genuine. And now that the heat has come off him, does it feel to anyone else like he has faded in to the background again?

I feel as though Malchus, Judah and Bathsheba would be potentially a waste of a vote because they might well die of famine (or be modkilled, whatever is going on). Also, because I'm assuming at this point that at least the first two socks are empty and Epi might still manage to fill them at some point, but that might be hopeful.

Mordecai wrote:

Lot wrote:

Mordecai wrote:I know im probably reaching a bit here, but that whole thing makes me raise an eyebrow. "Why would I help push every mislynch as a heathen? That's too obvious.". Yes it is, but then again Uzziah was practically begging us to lynch him and he was a heathen, who's vote you so happened to miss. It wouldnt surprise me if you were trying to hide in plain sight with that after the stunt that Uzziah pulled on us for four straight days.

It would surprise me greatly if Balaam was trying to hide in plain sight, given he is a civilian.

Under what context? If something happened that lock cleared him, then I overlooked it.

Me, just then

I'm just saying you are wrong, not that you should believe me or know that I'm telling the truth. Up to you to decide.

It's a very uneven relationship, this Balaam/Lot one. I keep defending his ass off, and he keeps being a bit wary of me. I'm surprised he isn't a lot more wary in some ways.

Mordecai wrote:I know im probably reaching a bit here, but that whole thing makes me raise an eyebrow. "Why would I help push every mislynch as a heathen? That's too obvious.". Yes it is, but then again Uzziah was practically begging us to lynch him and he was a heathen, who's vote you so happened to miss. It wouldnt surprise me if you were trying to hide in plain sight with that after the stunt that Uzziah pulled on us for four straight days.

It would surprise me greatly if Balaam was trying to hide in plain sight, given he is a civilian.

Belshazzar wrote:but Day 1 is becoming almost as interesting, now that it shows that Uzziah and Lot have both voted late for Cain.

I assume you mean Ruth? I voted Jephthah on day one.

Belshazzar wrote:I think you can see what the problem is. Every candidate, except for Job and Uzziah (who were lynched and had their roles revealed), is still alive. So it's unplausible for Nebuchadnezzar to have dead checked Simon and get inspired to trick us. Lazarus is still the obvious candidate for Simon, even if his power is now back to square one, after having switched his vote to a player not named Absalom, and even if he piled onto the Jeph lynch (likely making Jeph get roasted with 12 votes instead of 6), which makes it impossible to discern his power from the rest of the votes.

I was assuming from the wording that the zealot's vote got reset to one when changing targets.

Also, just to make it very clear to everyone... I am NOT rooting for the horsemen. I was merely saying I think they are still riding.

Jacob wrote:

Lot wrote:

Jacob wrote:Lot, what was that about the horsemen?

Yeah, that does read pretty randomly doesn't it. Perhaps if you read the post as a whole it might make some sense.

What is war good for? Absolutely nothing. Certainly not for me.

Yeah I didn't understand the rest of the post either.

Well I don't understand your posts about you rolehinting lol so we can call it even.

Absalom wrote:

Lot wrote:That's all I have to say on the matter. We should get back to figuring out who to lynch today

Okay. How about Jonathan? You guys didn't listen to me yesterday, and look how that turned out.

I think listening to you was a much better idea than listening to me

Jonathan is a decent idea. I feel like Deborah and Mordecai are still worth a look. And I need to reread yesterday because I honestly didn't understand Jephthah's perspective on Rebecca and Rachel but I need to take it more seriously now.

Also, does anyone else take it that Elijah is dead?

That's all I have to say on the matter. We should get back to figuring out who to lynch today

Jacob wrote:Lot, what was that about the horsemen?

Yeah, that does read pretty randomly doesn't it. Perhaps if you read the post as a whole it might make some sense.

What is war good for? Absolutely nothing. Certainly not for me.

Anyway, I think I have really come to a deep understanding of where Job was coming from, yes indeed. Yes, I finally see things from his perspective and understand just how important it was that he not give in on his tunnel vision. I can't believe I should have ever judged him for it.

The horsemen shall ride on.

Voting Lazarus, because I think he may be or have had input from king Neb.

Oh, maybe not Elijah... or maybe noone died. Maybe Goliath just got blocked. Hmm...

Sounds like Elijah killed Goliath...

I so hope that's true.

Belshazzar wrote:Lot, can you clarify what you mean here? What's up with Nebuchadnezzar?

I guess he could know if Simon the Zealot is dead, which would allow for play acting.

Samuel wrote:Because it was the way it read to me, that was what seemed ridiculous

OK, I understand.

First category is people I have in my mind slotted in as absolute civs (noting my modifying comments on laz, although I still think the occam's razor solution is that he is civ).

Second category was people who had taken votes.

You just didn't fit in to either of them, thats all.

Rachel wrote:

Lot wrote:I know what you mean Absalom.

I'm comfortable about me, Balaam, Lazarus...

Jonathan and Rebecca could be called defensive votes (but that doesn't mean they are good).

That leaves Samuel.

do you mean you're totally comfortable with lazarus or that you are comfortable with his vote?

i am not comfortable with lazarus.

You know what? Maybe I shouldn't be either.

No-one has disproved or complained about his clear role-hint, though. BUT

Nebuchadnezzar, King of Babylon
Nebuchadnezzar has a revelatory dream every Night, seeing the identity of someone dead.

So perhaps I'm more comfortable than I should be.

@samuel - yeah, but, what is ridiculous? Because I wasn't accusing you of being bad.

Samuel wrote:

Lot wrote:I know what you mean Absalom.

I'm comfortable about me, Balaam, Lazarus...

Jonathan and Rebecca could be called defensive votes (but that doesn't mean they are good).

That leaves Samuel.

Seriously? I have been looking at him for three lynches. You think that makes me bad then go ahead and vote me tomorrow but you won't be getting a heathen or a horseman or any other kind of baddie that might be out there.

No, that's not what I said. Way to overreact! I don't think you look bad (to me). I agree with you that you have consistently been on the Jephthah train with me. But neither do you fit into either of the other two categories. I'm more inclined to think Jonathan or Rebecca are bad. But I'll do a reread.

I know what you mean Absalom.

I'm comfortable about me, Balaam, Lazarus...

Jonathan and Rebecca could be called defensive votes (but that doesn't mean they are good).

That leaves Samuel.

Thomas, I suppose. RIP.

Odd that he was never activated.

My apologies Jeph. I did go after you for a long time.

Absalom, you can breathe easy.

Absalom wrote:It may appear selfish for me to say so, but I hope you guys don't split the vote any further or I suspect I'm a dead man.

It's not selfish. You hang on to your vote for as late as you can. I don't blame you.

But I really just couldn't vote on any of the current blocks just to save you.

Done, thats my vote. I'm not confident today is going to turn out well.

And Ruth's vote for Uzziah at the moment she did it makes perfect sense if Jephthah is bad too.

Samuel wrote:Wait, Jeph wants to vote Jacob, I don't think I want to vote there. Ugh!

Jep DOESN'T want to vote Jacob.

Anyway, I think I will vote there and see what happens. If he doesn't go down, no biggie. But I really wanted today to be a smooth, consensus kind of lynch that safeguarded against a Lazarus Absalom vote, and it doesn't look like we are going to get that, and I think Jeph actively worked against it.

Do you see his role hint?

I don't, but Jeph and Belshazzar claim to. I'm hesitant to vote there if he really is 'super-important' as he claims, and I just wish I understood what he was role hinting at. It's also someone who 'must be alive' and I can only see two possibilities of civvies who must be alive, so I specifically sought out those role hints, and still don't see them.

Thats why I'd prefer Jeph to Jacob.

I dunno, Balaam. I just don't know.

Mordecai? Jephthah? Jonathan? Deborah?

A Mordecai vote could tell us more about Jephthah. So could a Jephthah vote, though, lol. I already took down Ruth because I thought she might be linked to Jephthah, and she came back bad too.

Doesn't surprise me to see Jacob and Jephthah together.

I don't know whats going on. I didn't want to vote Jonathan. I don't want Absalom to be lynched today. I feel like this lynch has gotten completely out of hand. I don't know how we have moved so far away from what appeared to be right in front of us.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I'm considering a Jephthah vote.

Jacob wrote:Or, you know, actually read my posts and consider that you're wrong. You keep saying my votes are damning, and I keep explaining that I have just been misguided and in the wrong place at the wrong time, but your judgment is clouded.

I'm waiting for others to chime in on your apparent role hint. But one response I would make to this.

My judgement cannot be clouded by facts. My judgement can only be clouded by people making posts that are designed to make me doubt the facts. Your voting record cannot cloud my judgement. Only your posts can. I want you to make sure you understand that fully. It doesn't matter how many time you say 'I'm misguided and I've been in the wrong place at the wrong time'. What else would a baddie say?

And having said THAT...

while others are vouching for you, I don't intend to vote your way until I understand it for myself.

Honestly, I cannot even begin to fathom Jephthah's approach to this game. He is all over the place. Japhthah, if you are civ, I've never found a civ who lacked so much conviction. You bounce about like a pinball.

You were suspicious of Mordecai after the Uzziah lynch. You made posts about it yesterday and today. The lynch train you were concerned about was the votes on Rachel. Which Mordecai was on. Then you vote for the other one. All while being suspicious of Rachel. None of this makes any sense to me.

We have all of this vote analysis which I find to be the best form of evidence of all. I find today incredibly frustrating indeed because it feels like we have wandered so far off the beaten path it's ridiculous. What better way for the baddies to get another night but ensure Absalom is lynched, and the best way of doing this is just to keep throwing new names in the thread.

Jephthah just looks so bad to me. Nothing makes sense. It's beyond frustrating.

My order of trust in that list that people are not heathen

Balaam
Absalom
Belshazzar
Rachel
Jephthah.

But Rachel has been generally helpful.

And your own logic is so all over the place. If Rachel is bad, then why are you looking at Mordecai and stuff for being Rachel voters.

At least a vote for Mordecai might sort a few things out.

@belshazzar. Not worried. I'm setting my watch by it. I think it's important we are relatively united today.

Jephthah wrote:

Lot wrote:I'm trying, but I've always been terrible at role hints. I just can't see what you are all seeing with Jacob. I've read the roles and all of his posts twice. I guess I have to take it on trust for this time. I'm not overly comfortable taking Jephthah's words on trust at all. Rachel, Balaam, Absalom, Belshazzar, can you please clearly indicate whether you have seen and understood what Jacob is getting at - without making it obvious what it is, of course.

Why are you so sure Rachel is good?

Why are you sure that I'm so sure that Rachel is good?

I don't even know that I am so sure Absalom is good.

But I'd call the six of us the core six right now, and if any of us are bad I feel sure that we will figure that out in time.

I'm trying, but I've always been terrible at role hints. I just can't see what you are all seeing with Jacob. I've read the roles and all of his posts twice. I guess I have to take it on trust for this time. I'm not overly comfortable taking Jephthah's words on trust at all. Rachel, Balaam, Absalom, Belshazzar, can you please clearly indicate whether you have seen and understood what Jacob is getting at - without making it obvious what it is, of course.

Sorry, I meant fourth vote.

I'm beginning to see your point on Mordecai, though.

Balaam wrote:DAY 6 Results:
1. RACHEL (Isaac)
2. RUTH (Absalom)
3. RUTH (Stephen)
4. ABSALOM (Pilate)
5. RUTH (Lot)
6. PILATE (Esther)
7. RUTH (Jephthah)
8. RACHEL (Rebecca)
9. RACHEL (Mordecai)
10. PILATE (Rahab)
11. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
12. JACOB (Jonathan)
13. JACOB (Deborah)
14. RUTH (Rachel)
15. RACHEL (Jacob)
16. ABSALOM (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
17. RUTH (Balaam)
18. RUTH (Belshazzar)
19. RUTH (Samuel)
20. RUTH (Bathsheba)

Not Voting: Jonah (2), Judah (5), Malchus (4)

Jephthah, why are you pushing Rebecca and Mordecai and not the third vote on Rachel, JACOB!!!!!

How can you come up with this theory that they tried to bandwagon Rachel and yet say Jacob is the worst vote we could possibly make.

Because Isaac's voting record IS the most suspicious. Doesn't mean I find HIM most suspicious. Just that his voting record is, in my opinion, the worst. Jacob's second worse. But Isaac's posts alleviated my view on Isaac somewhat, and Ruth's lynch made me feel worse about Jacob.

Jacob. Votes + Ruth stuff yesterday. I think Jacob is a cinch. Jephthah second, Deborah third, Isaac fourth. Jonathan a distant fifth, or possibly even sixth after Pilate.

But I don't know why people keep inventing the wheel on vote analysis.