The Syndicate

I would like to believe that no civilians out there in the Mafia realm would be so petty as to pursue their own lynch, on purpose, when everyone is still talking things over, when the vote was tied -- because it's not only strategic nonsense, it is just horrible gamesmanship. Nobody I know would do that.

So I'm considering that self-vote a bad look.

Uncle Leo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:31 pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:14 pm Moved to Leo.

Would you like me to vote for myself? I will gladly do that. As a matter of fact, moving my vote to me right now since you all are so sure.

VOTE UNCLE LEO.

If you are a civilian and you lynch yourself with the game on the line, that would be the most petulant, despicable thing I've ever seen in a Mafia game. I have played in a lot of Mafia games.

Keep talking Leo and I'll keep considering my final decision. The only vote that matters is the last one.

Nearly the whole gang is here. I can't believe it.

Elaine Benes wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:23 pm Oh my God, today was a hell of a day, and only just got worse.

I'm sorry Lanie. What's the deal with days anyway?

Just please be ready to use that critical vote of yours.

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:19 pm Peterman not posting much and staying in role makes it really hard for me to gleam into his actual thoughts. I still don't think Mafia wouldn't know there's a cop in the game. So my money is on a Frank/Leo pairing now.

If I could most succinctly summarize why Peterman might be a civilian:

A mafia member who has been taking heat for nearly the entire game is going to end up with more than 8 posts entering Day 4 by default. Even a lurker making periodic appearances is going to feel the need to respond to that shit, and that alone is going to inflate a post count.

[mention]Frank Costanza[/mention]
[mention]Elaine Benes[/mention]
[mention]George Steinbrenner[/mention]

Your votes are critical now. I think Leo is the best vote presently. Whatley remains in my 3-player POE, but I do agree with George that his voting behavior in this late phase hasn't been pro-mafia. That's a good thing.

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:16 pm What specifically in Peterman don't you like? What's that glaring thing that makes you pause on him?

He doesn't have enough content to be subject to the hard analytic suspicion which is possible for higher-content players (like yourself). So any direct suspicion for Peterman is going to be inherently limited to matters of gut and isolated pings (or just his general slow participation rate).

I think Leo makes a better suspect between those two specifically.

Another reminder to all: we have three possible lynches remaining (two if we suck) and two mafia members. That's one mislynch.

So if we have a POE of three suspects which correctly includes both mafia members, we can't lose the game. Leo is an agreeable vote for me because he was in my most recent set of three suspects, alongside Whatley and Frank. However, if Leo is mafia, then I think the likelihood of Peterman being mafia increases congruently.

I'd love to hit that godfather. It'd break the game wide open.

Moved to Leo.

Leo and Steinbrenner might be stuck on their votes. I hope not.

Pee break. I'm glad we're all here, folks. Keep the dialogue moving as long as possible.

Tim Whatley wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:06 pmI don't think we had a tie between two mafia, so I'm excluding Peterman.

What leads you to this conclusion?

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:05 pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:01 pm

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:57 pm The fact Peterman isn't even aware of the civ read on Frank is as interesting as Whatley not knowing that Steinbrenner is the "cop"

It might be interesting. Tell me why you think it's interesting.

Well, mafia team communicates to each other, this sort of information would have been made clear between them I feel, even if they aren't up to speed in the thread THERE IS A 2-SHOT COP - HE ID'D ESTELLE AND FRANK. It brings them both further down my suspect pile.

I considered it a potentially incriminating given that neither power role was killed -- potentially the result of mafia members being behind on the thread and literally not knowing what's going on (Peterman and Leo come to mind, which I dubbed a viable pairing).

Lanie where are you?

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:57 pm The fact Peterman isn't even aware of the civ read on Frank is as interesting as Whatley not knowing that Steinbrenner is the "cop"

It might be interesting. Tell me why you think it's interesting.

Frank Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:56 pmThe part of the Jackie ISO I liked best was this:

I like that he's willing to state disagreement with Jerry unprompted here, but I would like to hear more on why Jackie had these thoughts about Estelle at the time. There is no prior mention of her in his posts.

That got me thinking about Jackie trying to lead Jerry further down the road to incorrect suspects. Because all of the people in his "What's Up With" tier at that point (including me) are/were civ. Jackie might have thought that, if he flipped bad, that interaction with me and Estelle would create more follow-up interest.

I don't follow exactly -- you say "best part of the Jackie ISO", but the quote features Jackie's name. I don't think he spoke in the third person. Whaddya mean?

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:56 pm

J Peterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:54 pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:49 pm Thanks, Peterman. Now, tell me, having made your best effort to figure out my nonsense charts and the like, was there anything in my analyses you didn't agree with? I see the one comment you made there in your reads post. What else? Does Frank's civilian ID mean anything to you?

I assume you mean civilian ID for Whatley? Depends on his flip, I suppose. But he doesn't seem terribly sure about the ID, considering his last comment/quote from Whatley about not being sure. So of course it means something to me, but I have yet to see exactly what.

No, he means Frank Costanza flipped civ. Since there's a cop in the game, it is possible we have a godfather, however.

Guaranteed actually. There is 100% a godfather in this game. Setup A in the 14 player matrix.

I wish I was this good at being mafia. Alas, I can't hang. I am the civilian duck who quacks like the civilian duck.

J Peterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:54 pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:49 pm Thanks, Peterman. Now, tell me, having made your best effort to figure out my nonsense charts and the like, was there anything in my analyses you didn't agree with? I see the one comment you made there in your reads post. What else? Does Frank's civilian ID mean anything to you?

I assume you mean civilian ID for Whatley? Depends on his flip, I suppose. But he doesn't seem terribly sure about the ID, considering his last comment/quote from Whatley about not being sure. So of course it means something to me, but I have yet to see exactly what.

The civilian ID was on Frank. What does that mean to you?

THE GAME WILL BE WON OR LOST TODAY, LET'S RUMBLE.

Tim Whatley wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:37 pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:27 pm Whatley, defending yourself is pointless at this point. Just do that hunting. That hunting is your defense. Who's bad?

Leo, Frank, recent posts makes me want to look at George but I can also see the angle of a frustrated civ taking heat solely based on mafia actions.

George, how do your actions counteract what is being claimed? Can any of your actions hold you accountable or no?

Tell me more about Leo and Frank. I'll give you two options, please address one or both:

1) Why do you suspect Leo and Frank most?

2) Why do you suspect George and Peterman less?

EBWOP

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:48 pm I don't feel I have the support of town enough to actually sway people to vote for someone I want at this point. If my post helps confirmed townies, in my eyes I've done well. Otherwise, it's sticking to people I think are scum.

Imagine for a moment that you have total control over the lynch. Who dies?

I understand some of these questions are repetitive, but there's a reason I am asking.

[quote="George Costanza" post_id=377013 time=1508366917 user_id=230
I don't feel I have the support of town enough to actually sway people to vote for someone I want at this point. If my post helps confirmed townies, in my eyes I've done well. Otherwise, it's sticking to people I think are scum.
[/quote]

Imagine for a moment that you have total control over the lynch. Who dies?

I understand some of these questions are repetitive, but there's a reason I am asking.

Thanks, Peterman. Now, tell me, having made your best effort to figure out my nonsense charts and the like, was there anything in my analyses you didn't agree with? I see the one comment you made there in your reads post. What else? Does Frank's civilian ID mean anything to you?

J Peterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:43 pm So, from what I've gathered, I'm happiest to vote George, Whatley, or Frank today. And maybe Leo. But less likely Leo.

Peterman, this is no time for player salad! You just talked about everyone, so pick one!

Frank, please talk to me about Steinbrenner.

[mention]George Costanza[/mention]
[mention]Uncle Leo[/mention]
[mention]Frank Costanza[/mention]
[mention]Tim Whatley[/mention]
[mention]J Peterman[/mention]

Two of the five of you are mafia. From your perspectives, you should be able to say it's just two of the four (unless you want to add me into the mix).

Please do the following:

Eliminate two players from your suspect pool, not including me.

Frank, I don't understand what's happening in that post. Do you trust Whatley or not?

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:31 pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:23 pm Why the hell wouldn't Jackie do that? It's the point of WIFOM. I've seen a mafioso fake track their own teammate into a kill and cruise to victory with it; I can certainly conceive of this.

we've all seen a lot of things. Since the narrator has chosen to disclose the actual identity of the player at death, I'm assuming that would help determine some player habits.

Sorry to break you out of roleplay mode, but would the player Long Con shout LYNCH GEORGE COSTANZA after getting lynched and knowing he'll be flipping scum if I was his team mate? If you say there's a greater percentage that he would, then lynch me. You'll be lynching a vanilla townie, but at least it'll give you information on how NOT to assess a situation.

I have no idea why you're insisting this is some kind of impossibility. This happens all the time. I have done it myself as a mafioso, in the championship game of the MU tournament two years ago. I was on my way to the gallows and I posted a huge ISO incriminating my only teammate.

He survived the game and won.

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:27 pm lol.

You literally voted for me after analyzing my interactions with Jackie. You can call it whatever you want, I think it's weak. Sorry if that upset you but it doesn't change my mind.

I literally voted for you after analyzing everyone's interactions with Jackie, deeming yours the worst, in combination to never having read you as a civilian at any point prior to that. I didn't think you looked good before Jackie, and I think you look worse after Jackie. Exactly how is that "weak"? That's what scumhunting is. It's a deliberate usage of information in the thread to arrive upon an educated conclusion.

"lol"

This is how you take pressure in crunch time, after willfully planting your flag in the lynch of a player you read as a civilian to be a "team player"? No way, George Costanza. No way.

Whatley, defending yourself is pointless at this point. Just do that hunting. That hunting is your defense. Who's bad?

George Costanza wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:13 pm you're basing your entire votes on Jackie's interactions with me, jerry/elaine? that's really lazy scum hunting. Terrible in fact.

Worst post in the thread.

From this defense:

Just a thought for you: after Elaine all but sealed his deal confirming she'd tracked him, he went down shouting me as his top suspect.

Do you honestly think that, along with the post above, is actually something a team mate would do? Do I think one of the people he named in that post is a team mate? Sure, it's more than probable. Do I think it's the name he was yelling the loudest aka me; no.

I think you should give Long Con as a player a little more credit than that. That said, no doubt he's laughing in his grave now at how he got the two most vocal posters to vote for me without a hesitation. Well done Jackie. You played it well.

Why the hell wouldn't Jackie do that? It's the point of WIFOM. I've seen a mafioso fake track their own teammate into a kill and cruise to victory with it; I can certainly conceive of this.

Wait a minute, hell no, George Costanza is scum. Full stop. Voting George.

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:10 pm Not because I believe Whatley is mafia, though, I don't see it (especially based on Kenny Bania's attitude--yeah, all 3 posts of them--read more like vanilla townie to me) but because this is a team effort and I want to be a team player.

I appreciate the mindset. I know about your concerns regarding Frank. Is there something about Leo and/or Peterman that concerns you as well that we could talk about?

George Costanza wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:06 pm I still think Frank is the better lynch today. I hear what you're saying about Whatley and will move my vote if it makes a difference.

If you had to narrow your suspect pool to just three names, who would they be?

J Peterman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:09 pm I am burnt the fuck out after today (and really for the last few days). I'm going to try to recharge for a bit and be back to actually play, but I just wanted to apologize for being so absent.

Do what you have to do Peterman, but please be aware that the lynch is finalized in 3 hours! There's little time to waste! Anything you can say or do could be immensely helpful and turn the game over completely. Imagine how big a boost it would be if you could convince others that you might be a civilian -- even without wasting time defending yourself and instead just finding those dang baddies.

I'm rooting for you, Peterman. I believe in you. The burnout is real, but the game is nearing its end. Let us cross the line together.

Four hours. The game is on the line. Bring me your concerns ASAP.

I'll be around, but tonight I'm taking Winona out to that great Chinese place if I can find it. Maybe this guy knows where it is...

By the way, if Leo and George are civilians -- this Day 4 has been a wonderful example of teamwork. Even if not, most of it's genuine and I really appreciate that. This is what makes Mafia such a great game; when numerous players coordinate their different mind-spaces into a single, combined effort. So many civilian teams simply don't do it.

I want to state that I don't care about the "safer" lynch, because I think playing it safe it often the same as "not winning". However, I do think the notion of avoiding Frank is logical this time if and only if there is confidence and consensus in the alternative. Three of us seem okay with Whatley. I'm looking forward to hearing from Elaine, Peterman, and Whatley himself.

Goddamnit Leo I like that post.

George Steinbrenner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:53 pm Frank/Whatley is currently looking like the most plausible team to me, but I'm not yet at a point where I'm comfortable removing anyone else from my POE.

Officially speaking, all five remain in my POE. As I work through the scenarios though, I can "eliminate" them separately, for pretend, and see where that leaves me. It has been illuminating, I think.

I may have just convinced myself to realign my 3-player POE to this though:

Frank Costanza
Tim Whatley
Uncle Leo

Within that paradigm, Peterman is only mafia if Leo is his teammate. That entire interaction can be reduced to Leo's "these guys are civilians because they voted Peterman" analysis, which occurred during a night phase when there'd be no urgency for Leo to rip on his teammate so blatantly. I don't feel much about that.

If it's Leo/Frank, it's again only that post which hints toward it -- I think a bit more convincingly than the Peterman/Leo link.

To further clarify how I've arrived at Frank/Whatley, I'll return to my chart. This time I have removed George from the equation, dangerously trusting in the fire seemingly lit under his Day 4 arse.



Three compatible pairings remain.

Note though: Frank, Bania, and Whatley have never said a word to or about one another in this game thread. It's not typical mafia behavior, but I am not sure it'd be surprising in this scenario wherein both player slots have generally been populated by low posters.

I follow you, Yankeeman. This post in particular is perplexing:

Tim Whatley wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:12 pm I see, I interpreted what she was asking differently. I see no harm in asking for role claims. I see harm in people who are lying to make vague statements about needing to get more information.

This relates the core of our situation. We are always trying to get more information. I'm sure when we have more information and the time is right to share, we will. Elaine should know this.

Sien, what do you think of Uncle Leo's vote for you? What do you want right now?

I don't know what is being implied in the highlighted portion or how it applies to Elaine's behavior.

Elaine and you, Steinbrenner-advocate, have both voiced improved feelings about George. I can at least state that his urgency and effort this phase are good to see and inspire hesitation in my own suspicion. I haven't removed him from the pool though given the remaining interactive dynamics in play.

It has me viewing a Frank/Whatley team as the most likely of all.

The biggest point of contention seems to be Whatley, who I view as a top suspect and a member of my 3-player and [hopefully] game-winning lynch set. Others have voiced trust (Elaine, George, perhaps Big Stein to a lesser degree). I arrive at my suspicion largely given my reduction of potential teams, which allowed me to tentatively move past Leo and Peterman. The other three are what's left.

So I'd ask someone who trusts Whatley to examine all the interactions I checked which include Peterman and/or Leo and tell me if/where you disagree with my conclusions.

It's a vote I could support. Lynching a civilian who has been ID'd civilian with a godfather still alive would be a gut punch, but that's only relevant if he's a civilian. I think he looks bad.

I'm glad to see some work was done overnight. I had a terrible night. My girlfriend Jodi is a masseuse, and she refuses to give me a massage. What's the deal with that? What's the point then?