The Syndicate

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:54 pm

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf

but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.

You may have already explained, but it's easier to talk in real-time: what makes Golf the lowest rainbow rank for you?

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:51 pm we will be having a Christmas intermission after today, the night will be extended 24 hours for the holiday festivities

Thank goodness, bless you sprityo.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.

Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:45 pm Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.

I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:42 pm

Bravo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:57 pm

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:08 pm

Bravo wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:16 pm I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.

The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.

I guess I just don't understand why that makes the theory of Wilgy-as-Juliet more mafia-indicative than town?

When there is an "out there" theory in the thread and one of the mafia members (Echo in this scenario) feels the need to talk shit about it without naming anyone, it gives me the impression of there having been a dialogue about that theory (or the strategy behind employing the theory) outside the thread. I admit that it's a rather tinfoil notion, but it's something that I think warrants discussion.

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pm Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

When it comes to the kills I think you kind of provide a counter-argument within your argument: "semi" relevant kills. The India kill may have been perpetrated by a team who wasn't cognizant of the potential for his being oracle despite his stance against Echo's claim. They killed Foxtrot who was a consensus suspect. They killed Charlie who was generally read as a civilian, but only alongside two or three other players. I don't struggle to imagine a "semi" engaged mafia team making these kills, not even a solo Delta.

Indeed if there's an argument in Delta's favor on this front I think it'd have to be "there was a kill at all". That's always shaky though.

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:26 pmIf there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.

My concern here is that you're not considering the endgame problem. If a civilian Delta doesn't vote, the civilians cannot possibly win without the aid of a coin flip.

If Delta is a civilian and there are two mafia, lynching him would lose the game. That much is true, and I acknowledge the risk. That's why I feel we're forced to make a judgment call about the likelihood of one or two mafia members.

If one mafia member is more likely than two, which I believe to be the case, then we would be better advised to set ourselves up for success in that scenario. Delta can be the sole mafia and the game would end in victory now. Delta can be a civilian and we won't be stuck relying on a coin at LyLo.

Combine that notion with POE which has left with me with two players who don't have as much or any civilian credibility going for them, Delta and Hotel, and I think it makes sense to lynch Delta now.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:05 pm Thinking on it, I still stand by my Bravo assessment. He's spewing town reads everywhere and not solving anything. He should die.

"spewing town reads everywhere and not solving anything"

Again I don't know how a human can read this message board forum Mafia game thread and really come to that conclusion.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:53 pm

Golf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:50 pm Hotel going after Bravo is a bad look imo...

But the numbers still support a Delta lynch. I'm not moving.

How the hell is it a bad look? Why isn't anyone assessing Bravo at all? He isn't even doing anything. Meanwhile, I'm the one that we all know is going to be lynched in a final LYLO situation if we only have a lone baddie and this goes onto another phase because somehow I became the default along the line, and you and Alpha are at each other's throats. Bravo's post is classic sit back and watch baddie.

This accusation keeps happening and I haven't seen a real support for it which doesn't rely upon my being quiet this phase. It's crap and I don't believe it.

What exactly does good Bravo do in this situation which you feel has not occurred?

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:18 pm Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

I still lean toward a lone baddie. I would lynch Hotel before Golf. I prefer Delta.

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:12 pm We have an hour left on maybe the most busy of the year. We need to cobble together some kind of coordination. :x

I'm here until the deadline. I know you've said it already over a few posts, but please summarize quickly your grievances with a Delta lynch and state your preferred alternative.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:28 pm Think about it. Alpha and Golf up in here freaking out over the direction of the lynch. Bravo has been in cruise control mode. If there's only one baddie, it's him, and he's content to let us bring each other down.

Gross.

I don't know how you can really believe that I have been in "cruise control mode" given the work I have done to investigate every angle. And when I had the chance today, I observed the discussion at hand between Alpha and Golf and stated my perspectives on it. This reeks of opportunism to take advantage of my inability to be deeply involved this phase.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:27 pm This is a lot of words to just say "everyone is town, I guess it's Delta, and if not it's Hotel, and reassessment will be necessary but I'm not really doing any of it".

Hell no.

First of all, what you've done in this accusation is essentially disparage the POE strategy as suspicious without naming it. I didn't just lazily say "m'kay, everyone is town so lynch the lurker". I have put a crap load of analytic content into this thread which describes my reads and how they align to each theory of the game I've entertained. I have more reasons to view the non-Delta players as civilians than I do Delta: this is POE. After Delta, I have the fewest reasons to read you as a civilian.

Recall this:

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pm That said, I do agree with Bravo that POE is the way to go. The thing is: I'm feeling that most of the players currently in the game are town. Juliet, Foxtrot, and Delta were the only three I didn't feel compelled to read as particularly town, and now Foxtrot is gone, a choice which I can't wrap my head around.

You were aware of my approach and stated your agreement with it. What is the sudden beef you have?

Second of all, regarding the highlighted portion at the top, fuck that shit. How dare you. I have been assessing and reassessing everything I can think of in this game throughout the game. I have been quieter this day phase because it's Christmas Eve and, as I said, I have been away.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:20 pm I'm not feeling Delta as solo baddie...

Why?

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:08 pm

Bravo wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:16 pm I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

Why is it believable? You lost me somewhere in there.

The theory of Wilgy-as-Juliets was a pretty specific one: not only that Juliet might be Wilgy, but that Juliet might be someone trying to look like Wilgy. Given Echo's anonymous dig at the idea and my own concern that there wasn't much reason in Juliet's raps to draw that conclusion, I felt there could be a connection drawn among the three (Golf, Echo, and Juliet).

Where did I lose you?

At present I am more moved by Golf's handling of this day phase than I am by that theory and Golf is not a lynch I would prefer.

"some quick thoughts"

*writes War and Peace*

Okay gotta go for now.

Christmas stuff is keeping me quite busy. I'm going to struggle to be in this thread much until later tonight approaching the deadline. Some quick thoughts on the discussion at hand:

- At face value, I think Golf's push for a Delta lynch right now looks more like a civilian concern than a con to push a game-ending mislynch. Golf's most recent posts just don't look manipulative to me.

- I don't think Alpha looks bad for being worried about that game-ending mislynch scenario. Prior to the start of this discussion Alpha had stated an intent to view this game through the lens of having two living baddies right now for the sake of maximum caution, and I'd say we're seeing the results of that mindset.

- I examined the Hotel/Golf pairing before this discussion and wasn't feeling it. I acknowledge there is some WIFOM in that conclusion, but it's where I was before. I think that right now, a modification of that conclusion based upon the Delta-game-ending-mislynch theory would fall into the realm of tinfoil, and I am just not inclined to go there.

- If Hotel and Golf are both bad, Juliet wasn't bad (if Echo was). That notion gives me problems. Juliet quit at the first indication of having received votes (without any of the typical civilian guilt-tripping) and said nothing through the finalization of the lynch. That is pretty much textbook for concession behavior. If Juliet wasn't bad, then that was truly a damaging and frankly unfair way to handle that situation. I have my doubts.

- Golf is right that even a civilian Delta presents issues in an end game scenario as a projected non-voter. Consider even a Hotel/Golf pairing: we lynch one and the other proceeds to an endgame phase with Delta alive. The civilian voting power in that phase can only be one vote if Delta doesn't contribute, which means at best the game can only be won in a 1-1 coin flip.

I think we're forced to make a judgment call here, and any decision is going to come with a degree of risk. That's the nature of this no-reveals setup. We cannot know for sure where we stand, but we still have to act according to the theories we develop. We treat the game probabalistically rather than deterministically. So the theory I feel the most confident about is as follows:

- Echo was bad.
- Juliet was bad.
- There is one living baddie.
- Delta is a prime candidate. After that, Juliet and Echo interactions and behavioral interpretation at face value take precedence. Based on where we stand right now with recent discussion in tow, my first guess after Delta would be Hotel. Continual dialogue and reassessment will be necessary through the finish.

I'm going to place a vote for Delta. I encourage you all to keep talking it out and I will try my best to get here early enough to engage it in real-time before the deadline.

Alpha wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:34 pm I've been considering Golf as an unlikely partner for Juliet because of their self preservation vote for Juliet on day 1. IIRC the votes were spread out enough that Golf could have voted for anyone else to preserve their own safety just as well.

I slept through the last hour or so of that phase and the polls haven't been preserved so I can't recall the exact circumstances. If I'm wrong about the circumstances in which Golf voted for Juliet then Golf is also a possibility.

Oh shoot but Hotel also voted for Juliet day one didn't they.

I can't remember either. Golf said their vote ended up on Kilo in the end, and I have no reason not to believe that. The vote was on Charlie prior, and Juliet before that. [mention]Golf[/mention], please indicate if this is incorrect or if you placed any other vote(s) on Day 1. Also, can you remember about how the poll looked when you voted for Juliet?

I am also hesitant to give Delta credit for the night kill choice. Charlie was a consensus civilian read, but not the only one. The mafia have to be wary of doctor protections in this game and will never actually know if the doctor is dead. In that regard I think the Charlie kill makes sense. One might suggest that Delta ought not be cognizant of game matters enough to make that kind of call, and I would like to think that the dude(t) would make a damned post in the thread upon visiting it... but that's still a tough pill to swallow. All it takes is a log-in and a PM with a name in it.

[mention]Delta[/mention], play mafia. The game is on the line.

At face value I think Hotel and Golf have both looked alright for most of the game. Golf as a civilian read would rest primarily on the frustration regarding the setup and the ensuing exchange with Alpha. I am hesitant to rely too strongly on such a notion, because that kind of thing has gotten me into trouble before. Hotel doesn't have a singular moment quite like that, but the full body of work hasn't perturbed me really.

If either of them is mafia they've played well.

I think the Juliet/Hotel combination is plausible too, but it doesn't strike me as a stronger connection than the one with Golf. Between the two I would lean toward the latter more than the former given the assumption that Juliet was mafia.

I'd like to hear perspectives on the Juliet/Golf relationship I examined.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:42 am It's not me, unfortunately. Please don't throw away the game by voting me out.

I really am flabbergasted. I still think Golf is good, and so... it's natural to conclude that Delta is bad, but I agree that he's not a solo baddie. But then by POE that means either Alpha or Bravo is bad, and at that point I throw my hands up in the air.

If Delta is bad but not a solo baddie, that would imply that there was only one mafia member among Kilo, Echo, and Juliet. Do you believe that to be the case?

One more post to pass Alpha.

I'll be out the rest of the night. If I drop dead, please fill my shoes as much as time permits by working out any and all potential evidence which exists in this thread. The game is winnable, and wouldn't it be a really cool achievement to win this thing as a civilian?

My top individual suspect is Delta.

One immediate feeling I have emerging from that exercise is that generally, the pairing which seem compatible also have the feel of tinfoiling. The exceptions would be those pairings which include Delta, who is pretty much compatible with anyone simply for lack of content. This has raised my degree of confidence that Juliet was mafia. I think it's important for everyone to consider that question carefully, because it dictates how one must proceed with the hunt. If Juliet was mafia (and Echo), then reads at face value are what matter now. If not, then the dynamics I've just drawn have more meaning and should be carefully parsed through.

I'd very much like to hear any alternative perspectives as well.

Do Golf and Hotel make compatible teammates?

I don't see a mention of Hotel in Golf's posts.

Golf is a town read on Day 1

Hotel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:59 pm

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:58 pm He basically was saying India was suspicious because her response to me was, "Catch up with the thread" which ftr was pointless because I was completely caught up. I was simply stating the couple things that stood out to me. Right or wrong, that was how Juliet read to me at the time. Did I sum that up pretty accurately, Fox?

Oh, okay. I must have missed that. Entirely possible since I read things super quickly. I could vote "I" as well then. Either that or "K".

Hotel asked for an expansion on Foxtrot's suspicion of India, and Golf responded here. Hotel was cordially receptive.

Hotel felt Golf's frustration about the setup was genuine

Golf is a light green on the Day 2 rainbow

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:26 pm

Alpha wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:10 pm

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pmI'm okay with voting Juliet as well, so I will go ahead and do that now, though I will admit I am rather nervous about it.

What is the cause of your nervousness?

Precisely the words that Golf stole from my mouth:

Golf wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:15 pm My concern is there isn't much opposition to thislynch. Unless she is a lone baddie left now or her team mate is bussing her.

When pressed about being nervous about the Juliet lynch, Hotel cited the reason provided by Golf (that there wasn't much opposition). I'm not sure it's typical of a mafioso to blatantly say "I feel exactly like my teammate right here about this near-certain lynch" in this manner, which would be a decent look. That kind of read is more difficult to make confidently without flips in the game, but I do still feel it.

Conclusion: I don't think this the most likely teammate pairing. Hotel's treatment of Golf in particular would be rather brazen if they're both mafia.

Bravo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:02 pm

Golf wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:55 pm No, my day 1 vote went to Kilo.

Thanks for the correction. sprityo, save the polls por favor.

Golf wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:55 pmAlso I am unsure what you mean about Foxtrot? That post was about how Foxtrot handled India I thought. By the time that was going on Foxtrot had backed off me and had tried to convince me to vote India with him. Unless I'm getting mixed up.

I should clarify: Charlie went after Foxtrot for his handling of India with respect to their relationship with Golf. Am I understanding correctly? Foxtrot drew an association between India and Golf which Charlie felt was a dubious assertion?

correction in highlight

Charlie, please let me know if there's a misinterpretation.

I need a break from all these letters.

Do Delta and Hotel make compatible teammates?

Delta hasn't mentioned Hotel.

Delta is yellow on Hotel's rainbow

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pm I'm okay with voting Juliet as well, so I will go ahead and do that now, though I will admit I am rather nervous about it.

That said, I do agree with Bravo that POE is the way to go. The thing is: I'm feeling that most of the players currently in the game are town. Juliet, Foxtrot, and Delta were the only three I didn't feel compelled to read as particularly town, and now Foxtrot is gone, a choice which I can't wrap my head around.

I'd be fine lynching either Delta or Juliet, frankly. If that doesn't end the game though, I'm not sure what to do.

Hotel is okay with lynching Delta by POE. This corroborates the rainbow.

Conclusion: there's not much to work with here. They're compatible by default.

Golf wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:55 pm No, my day 1 vote went to Kilo.

Thanks for the correction. [mention]sprityo[/mention], save the polls por favor.

Golf wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:55 pmAlso I am unsure what you mean about Foxtrot? That post was about how Foxtrot handled India I thought. By the time that was going on Foxtrot had backed off me and had tried to convince me to vote India with him. Unless I'm getting mixed up.

I should clarify: you went after Foxtrot for his handling of India with respect to their relationship with Golf. Am I understanding correctly? Foxtrot drew an association between India and Golf which you felt was a dubious assertion?

Do Delta and Golf make compatible teammates?

Delta hasn't mentioned Golf.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:21 pm Placing a vote on Juliet, going to go back and read through Delta because I have no impression of them whatsoever.

Golf wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:29 pm No wonder I have no impression of him, he only has three posts.

This is all I see from Golf about Delta. The lack of a read is understandable given the sparsity of content available.

Conclusion: there's nothing here to point in either direction. They're compatible as mafia teammates if only by default.

Do Charlie and Hotel make compatible teammates?

Charlie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:47 pm Huh, poll is still screwed up and showing Kilo at one vote but both Bravo and I show up as voting for Kilo so it should be two.

Hotel can you explain why you suspect me and why you suspect Foxtrot?

Neutral prod to expand on suspicion.

Hotel has Charlie as a Day 1 mafia read

Hotel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:50 pm

Charlie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:47 pm Huh, poll is still screwed up and showing Kilo at one vote but both Bravo and I show up as voting for Kilo so it should be two.

@Hotel can you explain why you suspect me and why you suspect Foxtrot?

Just aren't sure if either of you is genuine. Foxtrot seems a bit OTT in a disingenuous way, and your posting seems... detached, for lack of a better word.

Hotel attributed the mafia read on Charlie to a perspective of being "detached".

Hotel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:00 pm Upon reflection I think C's avatar made him/her seem more detached. Lol.

I can see that, frankly. One of these days I need to remember to look deeper into the impacts of avatar emotional provocation upon reads trends. Uh, anyway, continuing...

In light of my interactive analysis of Echo and Charlie, Hotel felt they made unlikely teammates.

This represents a break from the initial read, and in a way that I appreciate. I was less confident in my reception of my own analysis than Hotel and voiced Charlie as a point of some disparity (between the evidence and the appearance at face value). This then looks to me more like someone helping me to qualify my own concerns rather than someone protecting a teammate.

Charlie is dark green on the rainbow

It's consistent I suppose.

Conclusion: I think Hotel's read on Charlie looks like more like an authentic progression than one derived opportunistically. They don't look much like mafia teammates to me.

Do Charlie and Golf make compatible teammates?

Charlie wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:12 pm Ok lemme just go ahead and say I'mma not do that fancy posh verbiage heavy style. At first I was thinkin I was gonna do a different style every post and just keep changin' up the way I speak, but thinking about it now in light of india's thoughts, that's probably not the right choice here and would just make it easier for the disguiser. So I'll try to settle into a more normal style.

Alpha and India, I kind of get why you voted for me, but I wasn't trying to hide behind the style (well kind of in that I think it's fun to see how long one's sock puppet can last without being obviously identified as one's own style) I was just having a bit of fun with it. Alpha, I don't actually think you're particularly suspicious after all as you are one of the most active so far and your jokeyness is genuine. Thus I'll change my vote, not to a non-poster but to someone who has at least checked in but has not yet participated much. IIRC Golf fits that description.

Charlie voted Golf on Day 1 for the reason I've highlighted. Charlie later moved the vote to Kilo. This would fall under the "unnecessary if it's distancing" category.

Charlie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:25 pm And I did say justification was important so I should qualify that vote change. I like Bravo's perspective on Kilo and I can see scum potential in the level of K's participation, which is not too much and not too little. I don't actually suspect Golf that much now that they have returned and claimed bad internet, so I want to vote for someone more in the mid-posting range because scum often blend in like that. And since B is already voting there it has somewhat more chance of competing with my current lead in votes.

Charlie eased up on Golf later in a way that looks a lot like the way Alpha handled Charlie himself. I don't think this change of heart appears disingenuous.

Charlie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:51 pm Foxtrot, I don't get why you so strongly suspect(ed) India. Is there more to your suspicion than the bit about telling Golf to catch up? Because that's really weak. You haven't answered yet whether your suspicion of India is entirely dependent on their being buddies with Golf or not, so I would like to second that question. Do you have any other reasons to suspect either of them independently of each other?

Charlie yammered at Foxtrot for their handling of Golf. This is protective of Golf by way of being aggressive against Foxtrot, in such a vocal way that may be easier for a baddie to stomach in their handling of a teammate (hypothetically Golf in this case) in a game with no flips. The strength of the language here is stronger than we've seen from Charlie elsewhere.

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:19 pm

Kilo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:20 pm We're past the deadline?

Golf

Cause chance is for suckers.

Please explain.

My internet was down for the better part of the day yesterday, which is why I was absent. I'm casting a vote for Charlie.

Golf reciprocated Charlie's early vote.

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:59 pm

Bravo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:40 pm

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:19 pmPlease explain.

My internet was down for the better part of the day yesterday, which is why I was absent. I'm casting a vote for Charlie.

Why Charlie?

Self preservation. Plus I know I am civilian so that means it's entirely possible that the bandwagon formed on me to protect Charlie.

Self-preservation was cited along with this bandwagon theorizing. This kind of has a Captain Obvious sound to me. I can see a scenario where these two actually did distance from one another, perhaps out of some mafia-aligned instincts irrespective of the unique setup. It's rather tinfoily I grant.

I believe the vote stayed on Charlie.

Conclusion: I could see them as mafia together. It isn't a confident matter that shakes up my view of the game, but it's a possibility I acknowledge.

Do Charlie and Delta make compatible teammates?

Charlie wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:22 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:51 am From the one other time I dealt with the Disguiser role, it functioned as thus : When the Disguiser killed someone, their original account was shown as dying and they took over the account of their actual target. Which would mean India was the original account of the Disguiser and Echo the actual kill last night. Important for when looking at possible connections.

[VOTE: ] aubergine

[VOTE:

...Huh?
Nah. Technically this could be the case but it seems highly unlikely. I'm pretty sure that India was actually the oracle and targeted echo and India was targeted for the kill and echo has been the disguiser the whole time.] aubergine

[VOTE:

Neutral discussion of the oracle and disguiser after the reveal was posted.

I don't see mention of Charlie in Delta's posts.

Conclusion: there's barely anything to talk about here. Technically they're compatible.] aubergine

Do Alpha and Hotel make compatible teammates?

Alpha wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:17 pm Delta Foxtrot and Hotel are the only ones who have yet to check in.

Standard prod.

Alpha wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:10 pm

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pmI'm okay with voting Juliet as well, so I will go ahead and do that now, though I will admit I am rather nervous about it.

What is the cause of your nervousness?

Softball question.

Considers Hotel as a potential teammate of Juliet

I think Juliet was the likely lynch at this point, so that Alpha provided this perspective indicates to me a real exploration of the possibility of lynching Hotel. This would again represent unnecessary distancing or bussing in my opinion.

Hotel skimmed and called Alpha a town read

I believe this was a near-consensus perspective at the time.

Hotel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:48 pm

Alpha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:57 pm @Foxtrot what was the deal with your vote for India?

What's the deal with airplane food?

Oh, wait, wrong game.

Banter.

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:52 pm Alpha and Bravo are supatown. If either one is bad, we're doomed.

Strengthened expression of the town read / again in later rainbow

Conclusion: there is some neutral chatter in here which could be called compatible. The point that speaks loudest to me though is Alpha's association of Hotel and Juliet, which I think points to them not being mafia together.

Do Alpha and Golf make compatible teammates?

I'm going to limit my focus to this exchange:

Golf wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:26 pm

Alpha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:02 pm Also there's a significant difference between being dismayed at there being no info flips and flipping the table over and complaining there was no point in playing because we aren't being rewarded with information.

I'm sorry if you think I was being whiny, I've had discussions with Sprityo behind the scenes and made it clear to him that while my opinion is this is a severely civ handicapping element, I vote for flips but would defer to him if he felt like doing so would break his game. I don't appreciate you going on and on about how awful I and others are for saying outright what we see as a balance issue. I am entitled to my opinion and I have been nothing but supportive of whatever Sprityo believes is best for his game while still being honest about my evaluation of the balance. Clearly others think like you and I am fine with it, but I would appreciate if you would move on from continuing to make it a personal attack on me and any one else who stated what they believed to be a problematic mechanic. I am not a whiner and I don't appreciate you continuing to call me names basically. Stop it, or we can take it to the mod.

I apologize to the players and host for my recent absence in the last 48 hours, I have been extremely busy and not getting enough sleep. I just didn't have the time. But I am back now. Please don't take this personally Sprityo and bear with us, this is the holiday season and it might be hard to be as active as normal.

Where are we at here? Are we actually still in Day 2? If so, I'm self voting.

*votes Golf*

Alpha wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:08 pm

Golf wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:26 pmI don't appreciate you going on and on about how awful I and others are for saying outright what we see as a balance issue. Etc. Etc. Etc.

I haven't gone on and on about anything. Juliet was the one who brought it back up, and I needed to clarify things because they were acting like I was making things up.

I've been personally done with the subject since the end of day 1. I brought it up in the first place because I didn't feel like the negativity had any purpose other than to make sprityo feel bad. I probably went a little over the top with hyperbole calling the behavior "whining", and I'm sorry for that, but it seemed like the thread was going down a bad path and I wasn't okay with that. I didn't like that players were saying they weren't going to care about the game or take it seriously because there weren't any flips. I also didn't like that it seemed to be bothering sprityo.

I actually just.... don't really care about this topic, if you're here to play mafia then let's play mafia.

I don't think it's common for people to distance with this kind of emotional expression even in normal games. I have seen something like this turn out to be a teammate relationship maybe once ever, in a game featuring two people who are just more likely to do that kind of thing (Zebra and MacDougall).

Conclusion: I doubt these two are mafia teammates.

Do Alpha and Delta make compatible teammates?

Alpha wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:39 am

Echo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:28 am

Kilo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:10 am*Foxtrot*

Why Foxtrot and not Delta?

Why Delta over Foxtrot?

Alpha wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:16 am We can't spell dick if we lynch Delta.

Alpha wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:18 am Unless the goal is to put vote pressure on Delta until they post?

The Dick Joke amounted to a protection of Delta here. I don't know that I actually care, but it exists so here you go. I think the joke was just genuinely important to Alpha in the moment and that this needn't reflect on any alignments or associations.

Alpha wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:17 pm Delta Foxtrot and Hotel are the only ones who have yet to check in.

Standard prod.

Alpha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:40 pm moving my vote to Delta to see if anything shakes out of the 4 way tie

I can't remember what the tally looked like at this point or whether Delta was part of the four-way tie. The vote stayed on Delta if Alpha's report is to be believed. I don't see a good reason to lie about that.

Alpha noted that Delta didn't say anything about Juliet. This observation didn't come with a judgment.

Delta wondered aloud about some of the oracle/disguiser drama in response to Alpha's commentary on the same.

Conclusion: I'd say they're at least compatible, even if this interaction doesn't particularly move me.

Do Alpha and Charlie make compatible teammates?

Alpha gave Charlie crap for the "Knights Templar" post / continued / and a vote / qualified

I don't think this looks like distancing, and that would have less meaning in this setup anyway. This looks like a legitimate jab by Alpha at Charlie.

Alpha got in Echo's grill when the latter joined the Charlie wagon.

This bears a similar appearance. I don't think Alpha is being protective of Charlie here; but instead the interrogative pressure has shifted to Echo about Charlie. More

Alpha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:42 pm I don't necessarily see my vote staying on Charlie. My issue with Charlie was their puffed up civvie pride attitude not being backed up by any actually scum hunting footwork. Now that they've actually done some stuff it doesn't look quite as damning.

Alpha backed off of the Charlie suspicion later in Day 1. If this was all distancing before then at best I would call it unnecessary.

Alpha wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:48 pm In case I die tonight:

Juliets was suspiciously quick to not only accept that Echo was the real Oracle but also to practically praise Echo for their strategy which involved leveraging possibility of Oracle information in exchange for personal survival. In the light that Echo was a mafia member fake-claiming Oracle, this looks really bad. Juliet was also very quick to drop their suspicion of me and there was also some inconsistency there regarding their reasoning for suspecting me in the first place. The whole thing just felt kinda sketchy I guess. As of right now Juliet is my top scum read.

Bravo and Charlie are probably civ, everyone else I have neutral reads on.

Charlie was less a point of focus for Alpha on Day 2, and by Night 2 the read was civilian.

Charlie's mentions of Alpha are mostly limited to the same conversations referenced above. Charlie has been supportive of Alpha throughout the game.

Conclusion: in a normal game it'd feel like tinfoil to call these two teammates, and in this game it's even more tinfoil. Not feeling it.

I'm going to review other possible teams for scenarios featuring two living mafia members now. Copying them here for my own reference:

Alpha-Charlie
Alpha-Delta
Alpha-Golf
Alpha-Hotel
Charlie-Delta
Charlie-Golf
Charlie-Hotel
Delta-Golf
Delta-Hotel
Golf-Hotel

Note: I do think it's more likely than not that Juliet was mafia. Day 3 felt like a concession and a refusal to give the civilians more data to work with by posting. So it has to be stated that if that is true and Echo was also mafia, these dynamics I am about to examine don't reflect the present game. This is an effort to cover bases, and it could still come in handy for the purposes of process of elimination or for a later phase.

It must be noted that those analyses rely on two things:

1 - Juliet is bad. If not, then the team dynamics I've drawn up don't mean anything.

2 - Kilo was good. If Kilo was bad, and we assume Echo was bad, then there can only be one remaining baddie. Team dynamics theories among living players don't matter. Also, if Juliets is the sole baddie and we lynch Juliet, then the game is over and none of this matters.

If the second assumption doesn't hold, then pure hunting based on face-value judgments of individuals takes precedence over interactive hunting. There is no way for us to actually know whether this is the case, but it can influence our methods and our votes. If the first assumption doesn't hold, other team dynamics of the living players not including Juliet are still meaningful to explore. I will be doing so to ensure all bases are covered.

Do Juliet and Hotel make compatible teammates?

Juliet wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:36 pm I switched my vote to a non-poster for now. @Hotel

I'm happy to lynch such a player today.

Juliet threw a standard non-poster vote on Hotel on Day 1. In an ordinary game this may look like a token distancing vote; there's less room for that interpretation in this game.

Juliet wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:58 pm

Hotel wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:43 pm Okay, voting Echo because why not. Need to finish catching up and then hopefully can provide some reads. This has been a tough setup to get my mind around.

What part are you having trouble getting your mind around?

Softball question. It doesn't add much of anything, but it does provide Hotel with something to talk about. Hotel expanded on the challenges of the setup in response.

Hotel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:40 pm

Juliet wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:36 pm I switched my vote to a non-poster for now. @Hotel

I'm happy to lynch such a player today.

Not cool, man. Not cool.

Chummy response to the generic prod. Okay.

Juliet is yellow on the Day 2 rainbow

I don't care much about the color. It is a timid placement of Juliet though, alongside Delta who had posted very little if anything to that point.

Hotel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pm I'm okay with voting Juliet as well, so I will go ahead and do that now, though I will admit I am rather nervous about it.

That said, I do agree with Bravo that POE is the way to go. The thing is: I'm feeling that most of the players currently in the game are town. Juliet, Foxtrot, and Delta were the only three I didn't feel compelled to read as particularly town, and now Foxtrot is gone, a choice which I can't wrap my head around.

I'd be fine lynching either Delta or Juliet, frankly. If that doesn't end the game though, I'm not sure what to do.

On Day 3 Hotel is willing to lynch Juliet or Delta as a product of POE, with trepidation. I think the POE mindset is agreeable and it does match the prior rainbow. I'm not really bothered by the hesitation over the ease of the development of the lynch either. It does promote a more uneasy atmosphere, but I wouldn't say it stalls the lynch or prevents it (that's the important detail to me in an examination of Juliet team dynamics).

Conclusion: there are some moments that look iffy at face value. I'd say this is a compatible association between Hotel and Juliet, but not one that jumps out at me.

Do Juliet and Golf make compatible teammates?

I don't see a mention of Golf in Juliet's posts.

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:18 pm I'm also concerned about the fact that Juliet is trying to imply they are Dr. Wilgy. Why? If it is Wilgyi would be inclined to think he is good, but if it is not actually Wilgy, I am inclined to think they are trying to appear as Wilgy to look more benign.

Golf was the one to raise the idea that Juliet might be Wilgy, and if so it might be a civilian indicator (or if not it's suspicious).

Golf wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:31 pm I moved my vote to Juliet for two reasons: 1. Self preservation. 2. I don't trust that she is who she wants us to think she is.

Golf voted Juliet here on Day 1 when the two of them were, I believe, the prevailing wagons. This was before the wagon on Kilo took off. I am not thrilled about the vagueness of #2, though it does mesh with the previously-mentioned Wilgy-or-not-Wilgy judgment. I'm not sure there was a good reason to say that Person Making Rap Posts = Wilgy/Wilgy impersonator. I also recall the post Echo made about this, blaming nobody in particular but voicing displeasure about the thought process.

Golf discussed this later in a theory about BTSC between Juliet and Echo. I find myself wondering if each of the three of them was involved in this particular BTSC discussion.

Golf wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:41 pm I doubt I will be the one to die tonight, because I haven't done any hunting in the last cycle at all so I'm not a threat and I have drawn some attention. But if I do die, I think I would also say, lynch Juliet. I'm thinking the reason it might have come up in BTSC was because it was about one of them.

Golf voiced support for a Juliet lynch at the end of Night 2. At this point it had become something of a chorus.

Conclusion: I think there is a believable scenario where Golf and Juliet are teamed together. This contrasts the genuine appearance I think Golf has had much of the game, and I welcome other viewpoints here. Talk to me about it.

Do Juliet and Delta make compatible teammates?

I don't see a mention of Delta in Juliet's posts or vice-versa.

Conclusion: there is nothing to indicate that they are or are not both mafia. It's possible.

Do Juliet and Charlie make compatible teammates?

Juliet wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:44 pm

India wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:37 pm

Charlie wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:28 pm As a component of this hypothetical dick, I must admit that I fail to appreciate its relevance to our objective. I shall not promise that I will not participate should a timely opportunity present itself, but I shall heretofore assume that any participant who focuses disproportionately on that goal to have insufficient priorities and that they are taking advantage of the sophomoric spelling mission to distract from the true and correct mission: the search for those among us who seek to destroy.

Should I vote Alpha for their obsession with avatar spelling?
Or Charlie for this egregious post?

Here, have my vote. Will that help you decide?

As I said with Alpha, I think the relevance of Charlie to this exchange is incidental.

That's the only thing I see for Charlie in Juliet's ISO other than another similar indirect reference in response to Alpha's questioning post-case-against-Alpha.

Charlie wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:30 pm Nice analysis Bravo. I'd definitely be down to vote for Juliets next phase or maybe Foxtrot (I can't quite put my finger on how I feel about Foxtrot yet)

Charlie's first mention came on Day 2. It should be noted that Charlie expressed willingness to vote either Juliet or maybe Foxtrot, and not long afterword Foxtrot turned up dead. In that regard, if Charlie is on the team that killed Foxtrot then he sort of restricted himself to a Juliet vote here (which would be a bizarre decision if they're teammates).

Charlie wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:00 am

Alpha wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:48 pm In case I die tonight:

Juliets was suspiciously quick to not only accept that Echo was the real Oracle but also to practically praise Echo for their strategy which involved leveraging possibility of Oracle information in exchange for personal survival. In the light that Echo was a mafia member fake-claiming Oracle, this looks really bad. Juliet was also very quick to drop their suspicion of me and there was also some inconsistency there regarding their reasoning for suspecting me in the first place. The whole thing just felt kinda sketchy I guess. As of right now Juliet is my top scum read.

Bravo and Charlie are probably civ, everyone else I have neutral reads on.

good post op

Gosh it's quiet in here :\ and I think the night post is (over)due? but add me to the "if I die lynch juliet" club

Charlie wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:15 pm RIP foxtrot.

I'm voting for Juliet, at least for now. Don't want to fall into a tunnel though so I am open to other possibilities.

At the end of Night 2 and beginning of Day 3, Charlie held true to that pledge while remaining open. The openness doesn't bother me, it's the right mindset for a civilian to have at the very start of a day.

Conclusion: there are only a few things to talk about here, but I do think they point to a scenario where Charlie and Juliet are not both mafia.

Do Juliet and Alpha make compatible teammates?

Juliet wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:44 pm

India wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:37 pm

Charlie wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:28 pm As a component of this hypothetical dick, I must admit that I fail to appreciate its relevance to our objective. I shall not promise that I will not participate should a timely opportunity present itself, but I shall heretofore assume that any participant who focuses disproportionately on that goal to have insufficient priorities and that they are taking advantage of the sophomoric spelling mission to distract from the true and correct mission: the search for those among us who seek to destroy.

Should I vote Alpha for their obsession with avatar spelling?
Or Charlie for this egregious post?

Here, have my vote. Will that help you decide?

Alpha is only incidentally relevant here, so the meaning to be drawn from it is limited. It probably says more about India than either of the other two mentioned in the exchange.

Juliet wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:59 pm

Alpha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm tl;dr would force legible content and prevent rapping being used as a smokescreen.

Forcing a player and imposing your will?
Calm your jets man, sit back and chill
I can't be arsed to take your pill
I'll play as a I like, and enjoy it still

Juliet kind of refused to humor Alpha on the request for tl;dr explanations attached to the raps. In a world where Juliet is bad and distancing is perceived to be less important than usual, this looks more like a non-teammate exchange wherein the baddie is trying to appear genuine by being obstinate.

Juliet makes a case against Alpha

This case came after the India/Echo thing unfolded while Juliet claimed to not be caught up entirely. The case itself means less to me than what followed soon after:

Juliet wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:02 pm Thanks for pulling that quote. I missed that post originally.

Alpha answered the accusations, they had a brief exchange, and Juliet ended the matter here and dropped the suspicion. To me, that looks like someone genuinely trying to explore a lynch option, realizing that it isn't going to take, and shutting it down. In the universe where Juliet is bad, that entire progression would strike me as pretty pointless if they're teamed together.

Alpha wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:15 pm Foxtrot, Hotel, and Juliet also haven't checked in yet.

This is the first mention on Alpha's side, a generic activity prod alongside a couple others.

Alpha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:25 pm I'd be okay with a Juliet vote.

There was little else until this, after India and Alpha discussed the rap gimmick Juliet opted for and the lack of clarity within the lyrics. After Juliet didn't comply with the tl;dr request mentioned above, Alpha went ahead with that vote. Again, this doesn't look like a teammate exchange to me.

More recently Alpha has begun a similar effort to what I am doing presently, considering associations of players with Juliet.

Conclusion: I am doubtful that Alpha and Juliet are both mafia.

Indeed, the best method available might be to check everyone against everyone else to discern the most compatible associations (and least for the sake of process of elimination). It's a bit of a workload, but it's manageable with a small number of players like we have. I'll try to get to it as time permits.

By all means, playing cautiously lends itself to playing thoroughly so I encourage it. I think any kinds of analytic opportunities any player perceives to exist should be explored when the objective information available is so limited.

I definitely thought the deadline was yesterday. Given that it looks like Juliet has conceded, the next step ought to be to find connections on that front. I believe that has already begun in some capacity. I’ll see what I can find later tonight.

Considering the difficulty of the setup I think we find ourselves in a pretty damn nice position.

I have a ton going on today for the holidays and stuff, so I am not sure I'll be around. I'm voting Juliet now. I'll try to pop in closer to the deadline to see any further developments in the continuing dialogue, but I can't make any promises.

Bad, Cad, Hag, Jag, Had, Cab, Jab, Chad, Ah, Ha, Ad, Ab