The Syndicate

I agree, it would only be logical to lynch you in that case.
I plan on voting for you tomorrow.

We will still need to lynch boomslang, unless Bea dies tonight in a mysterious sock-motivated explosion of some kind. We'll probably need to do it twice :-\ The logic that he's cohen is solid, though far from proof.. but he hasn't really argued the point. Of course if whatever is in these packages k...

Whoops, too slow. I'll be a replacement if a third is somehow needed though.

EBWOP: Color change

I'm going to vote for Elo, because Hedge's defense is plausible, despite having no confirmation.

Yes, that fit my assessment of you SD.

There's certainly a solid chance of that, imo.

Mind you, I don't think that role would fully make sense, since I can't see why the creeper would have tried to kill Hedge (and get bounced onto SD) either, as another of the only suspected people remaining..

(preferably on a night that wasn't Inh's random-fest)

I believe she is hinting here, is anyone aware of corroborating evidence?
A night power that targeted Hedge but didn't turn out to hit her, perhaps?

That would persuade me to vote Elo instead today.

For instance, helpful as he was, I really do think DH was bad. I was trying to find a chink in his armor when he got Red Roomed. I agree with you there! And yes, it was tough to stick anything to him, since he stayed with analysis and avoided opinions. My reasons for suspecting him revolved around ...

Also, slinging mud at Zodac and hoping some sticks is almost the only tactic available to a baddie at this point. They must realize that they can't win by staying hidden at this point - we can simply lynch all the people we don't know are civs, and they lose. So they have to try and discredit the e...

yeah, exposing all the secrets certainly shoved the game way over to the analytical side.

A few people seemed to be implying that DF had hinted at a certain role. Maybe it was a real hint, maybe it was a fake one, maybe it was a freaking coincidence. But a hint means someone is a civvie, right? Should that be orange, lol? Memo to all, if I ever hint again myself, shoot me, K? I am not l...

Well, in Avant at PA, he killed everyone who opened the package, lol. So that is my experience with Sockses bearing boxes. So as i see it, our options are Elo, FH & Hedge, right? Based on what I have been reading and who has been presumably cleared? I seem to recall someone describing another g...

:SVS: I decided to chuck my package. Hopefully he's not going to kill half of us with a random mechanism this game, but if he is he will presumably not do it in either of the ways he has before. (I'm only aware of the 'open it kills you' and 'not opening it kills you' results, if there are any othe...

hope that post didn't count..

There are lots of thing I (for example) do not know. How would you like me to take them under consideration? Should I make illogical decisions based on the fact that my logic might be wrong? Should I vote roughly randomly to compensate for the chance that MP is just messing with us when he tells us ...

To SVS's point about theories and confirmation bias; it's certainly a valid concept, but I don't think that's the case here for me. It might have been relevant to my prosecution of Bea earlier though. FH - I don't know that he's cohen or anything, I just don't think he's fetus. It's totally possible...

Would you prefer to lynch a baddie who is not as dangerous, or take a chance at this stage of the game guessing? "Not dangerous at all" is how I would phrase it. Not with as large a group of known civs voting as we have today. And I would prefer to guess among the unknowns than spend two ...

An *unlynchable* vanilla civvie, but I agree with your logic about Mongoose.

I guess creeper could have been blocking her some of the time (and certainly would have, if he's known she was penny)

A quick extra thought - MacG's kill *might* not be announced if it fails, since it would be publicly confirming that player as a civ. We have a number of unexplained (and failed) kills in the thread - epig was incinerated N6, and DH survived incineration N7. If those were MacG's kill attempts, then ...

I can't see any good explanations for why they wouldn't have gotten at least any *attempted* kills - even if they tried to kill someone that died anyway each night, there's still be an entry in the log about it - 'tried to kill X, but failed!' If you look, that same night BWT also survived a kill at...

I hate this guys. :rip: Mongoose. I really did think you were good. I think we really ought to try Boom again. So many of us just have no clue on the others and I am afraid we will just end up lynching another civ. In my mafia career, I have seen many roles where players are unlynchable, but there ...

MacG is probably already dead, I guess.
It's possible he was found last night, but someone would have been a little more noisy in Mongoose's defense I should think.

Rereading DF makes me think he's most likely civ, though I can't be fully confident about that. Reading SD tells me absolutely nothing except that she seems to be a very nice person. Here is my trust list: Trust: SVS, FH, Lizzy, BWT, Nevinera, Bea Most likely Civ: DF No Idea: Elo, Hedge, SD Probably...

RIP, Mongoose (who is not martell).
I hate this guessing game, I'm going to do some more rereading today.

I'm not feeling elo again - if she isn't cohen, then her reaction seemed more civ than desperate baddie to me. And since I did that reread I have had the feeling that she's barely been reading the game - that remark about Zodac is completely typical of her this game. Either she's a masterful actress...

S~V~S wrote:So who do you think IS Fetus? Or Creeper?

I don't have any idea who is the creeper, I'm afraid..
I recommend that you read back over my last few days, though -
Knowing what you know I know you know I know, of course. ;-)

I think he's Cohen. Which is not exactly "bad", but probably needs lynching.
No rush on that though.

I certainly don't think he's fetus, though I suppose he could be the creeper if he got a protection of some kind from somewhere.

Well, I guess Zodac didn't get the memo regarding the usefulness of an Elo lynch to the baddie-hunting cause. For all reasons previously outlined, I'm very inclined to vote her again today. But let's think about the likely outcomes if you vote for me again today. If I'm Fetus, you can't kill me unt...

Do you have any other explanation for why the creeper would be killing on an odd night? If Big Daddy (Bouncer) dies, Creeper stops blocking every night, instead blocking every odd night, and tries to kill a player every even night. However, it has only a 60% success rate of killing its target. I rea...

The manipulators' kill moves around as the members die - that kill should exist until all four of those characters are dead. The VGV kills are not like that - the members of that group have powers that expand if certain other members die, so that there should always be someone with a kill. I don't s...

Wouldn't Catherine have gotten moriartys kill if she were still in?

I don't think Fetus is very likely.

I think Cohen is more likely.
I suppose it's also possible macguyver is still out there though.

timmer wrote:What if because of that mass red room yank, we're down to just one baddie?

That'd be sweet!

bea wrote:also- timmer - you made all this - which theory do you think is most valid?

I think they're all predicated on some assumptions we don't know are true.

Currently the only explanation for there being a tie that I can find is percy - I think that he would be able to pick thomas at night and get the tripled vote the next day. There could be items that do something similar, but percy seems most likely to me. @MP (when he gets back) - can percy use Thom...

So I just reread Elo and Boomslang. My conclusions are not strong, but Elo reads through like a crazy busy person who's not really playing, and boom reads like an attentive player who's not putting arguments out of his own. It's tough to give good examples of that sort of thing, but fortunately they...

I liked the cut of timmer's logic, but I don't agree with some of his assumptions. I'm focused on how the tie could have happened, though I know there's always "it was a random item!" I'm leaning towards a percy power right now though. Good luck Zodac, I'll see if I can come up with anythi...

Bea said she still had the shield then, that it gets handed off every two days in this game.

I don't think it's rumple, the odds of that seem slim.
He'd need two manipulators voting in a tiny, detectable group - recipe for disaster.
And they wouldn't try to save elo unless she was a third manipulator..
I don't think there are that many left.

Day 11 has the title "another one for Zodac"

I still have a good feeling about bea, though she is confusing me mightily again.
FH too, of course.

How did that tie happen?
Thomas would fit, but he's out supposedly.
I guess we could have Percy copying him?

Bah. I don't have time to wait any further tonight. Given the conversation lately, and the fact that I've already voted her, I'm going to vote for Elohcin. There's nothing strong there (I don't buy into any of this 'epig defended you' stuff), but there's basically nothing there on anyone. I have my ...

I don't think a baddie would be playing dumb at this point SVS - it's not nearly as obvious if you weren't watching with that in mind the whole time :-)

I mean wifom and all, so I won't remove him from suspicion.
But I wouldn't vote boom just because he doesn't seem to get it.

At the moment I would feel alright with a vote for Elo, DF, Boom, or Hedge, and I could countenance a mongoose. I have no particular reason to vote one of those more than the others, though I like Elo a little better because I voted for her in the past (so if she's sander I'd still want to lynch her...

"Yes-manning" is seeming too agreeable with the general tone of the discussion. For example, "Oh, I still don't get what's up with bea, but I no longer think she was on rumples team. I'll trust SVS on that assessment," and "Certainly, baddies should come first!" In res...

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