The Syndicate

He did, actually. And used insect swarm on both of you also.

I'm glad you got the swarm off, but my odds were never good to begin with :-P
By the last night I was figuring my chances thusly:
35% chance of killing daisy (using my 10% plus electro 25%)
and then a 10% chance of killing you every night while you took a 30% swipe at me every night.
My chance of victory was in the realm of 4 percent, and there was a 1 percent chance that nobody survived the game at all!
(not a common outcome, eh?)

If you had been a little more direct, I probably would have skipped my attack - something like "Reread the win conditions and ask MP" would have definitely sufficed. But you didn't need to, since you had the swarm.

I feel really bad for Rob though.. He felt terrible all game, betraying you guys and then I guess me also.

Linki aces - that does sound like the kind of plan I'd love to try :-P
The tied vote against devin failed because his dancer gets to do some vote manipulation I think.

Bullzeye wrote: What we should have done is had DF kill Epi straight away and then either got Nev lynched or NKed him the next time we could.

Probably. NK'd though, not lynched. If you'd backed me into a corner I'd have revealed who you were quickly enough :-)

If it were me, I would have told you guys everything immediately and started playing for time with my new master while my old team scrambled to get another big daddy plasmid to take me back. I was sort of assuming that was his plan the whole time, and that the 'accidentally' forwarded message was part of that plan.

linki bullz: Ryan wasn't dead yet at that point. We all thought she was on team ryan, because of her reaction during the early stages of the game when we started tossing DH's name around as a shared secret.

I'm sorry I stole Epi from you, Snow :-\
But when he forwarded the team switch to you guys accidentally, I can't believe you believed his line :-)
He must be a fast talker :-P

Snow Dog wrote:How nev didn't get lynched after Owl I don't understand.

I walked the line of being harmless and also looking civ enough that targetting me would make other people targets too.
There were enough confusing roles and team interplay that nobody could follow exactly what was going on,
and I tried to imply that I was peach, and that peach's abilities were more useful than they appeared.
Like that I could role-check people when they pointed plasmids at me and the like.

Spacedaisy wrote:Nev, as you coud tell from the end post we did not have our final picture yet. We could not win with you unless we had all four. We planned on voting for Devin in order to see that none of us got ynched and allowed us another day to search. We were down to three people left unchecked.

I totally didn't think I counted as a 'team' for the purposes of winning with you (LMS and all).
I have been running on an increasingly slim chance that I could kill one of you and then the other
once you'd wiped out all the competition. Yes, with my 10% attack. >.<

MP: Are we allowed to donate our wins? Because I still feel like I cheated Hedge out of the game :-\

To expose some details of my very odd game, I got a big-daddy hypnotize plasmid and snatched Epig with it pretty early. It appears that someone else stole him from me shortly before you lynched him (Mata I think?), but having btsc with him gave me access to a crazy amount of information, that suddenly became much less useful when Ryan died. At that point, knowing who the baddies all were (including Devin and Daisy) did me very little good directly, so I started trying to turn information into authority - next time I try to do that I'll be more circumspect and less info-dump-ey of course. Anyway, it apparently worked sufficiently well to keep me off the lynch docket through the end of the game.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Day 15: My Friend, You Are Fucked!

Flyin' High was fucked. She managed to make it this far, despite her paranoia, but the pressure was now too much. The others started after her, but she panicked and took her own life first, stabbing herself in the chest.




Flyin' High has been lynched. She was Peach Wilkins.

It is now Night 15. You have 24 hours to send in your night PMs.

o.O wtf?
The games not over, so one of you is totally not who I thought.
And what are you talking about Daisy?
I guess you have some kind of secrets, but I'm really confused..

Phew. I guess I shouldn't be too surprised, since thuggish has such a terrible attack, but I was totally expecting to just miss the victory there :-)

Voting FH, let's get this over with.

I think they're pretty high.

Voted Aces, obviously.

[quote="Devin the Omniscient"]
Nev - You seemed to trust me more than Matahari. Why is that?/quote]

I think I know who you are.
Because of my gut, and not because of any information I might have received.
I was pretty sure before (would have bet the game on it), but Daisy's reaction to the lynch threat makes me pretty confident.

In fact, I think your role at this point is fairly obvious to everyone in the game, and was last poll also.
I would bet that both Aces *and* FH are LMS, as their reasons for voting for you last round are logically very flimsy.
I'm happy to vote for whichever of them you prefer.

I'm glad she didn't still have a life left or I'd totally have bought her line when she survived.
Hmm. Maybe she wasn't sure how many lives she had left, and was hoping to pull just that trick?
If so, I'm impressed by the plan, mata.

I think that makes things fairly straightforward though, now it's all down to NK randomizers.

AceofSpaces wrote: I will probably vote for SD. Not because of Mata, but because of my own observations.

Any chance you'd be willing to share those?

Flyin' High wrote:I
Aces, Nevinera, what are your thoughts on this?

I don't see whatever pattern Mata has been talking about.

On the other hand, Daisy's response to this whole thing has me a bit confused.
I was pretty sure I knew who Devin was, but I don't think her reaction to his proposed lynch makes tactical sense.

I'm not going to swing my opinion around on such flimsy conjecture and guesswork though,
so I'm voting Matahari.

linki Mata: If you're right, then hopefully your reasoning will be evident after the fact,
because if there are two ADAMers alive this late, our chances seem pretty slim.

Devin the Omniscient wrote: @Nev - I'm not sure I understand which plasmid would give the info you seem to have. Unless more is revealed than I suspect by controlling a Big Daddy or a Security Bot.

Potentially?

Matahari wrote:I agree with aces about daisy. But I also suspect that devin is a killer. I am voting her today. I urge you all to trust my instincts on this. And no, I'm not speaking of info. I'm speaking of painstaking daily s.s. work.

Please do transcribe some of this 'work' for us to review?
I think you're wrong, but I'd love some analysis to read.

And I don't think we should lynch Daisy, I really feel like she's on the civ team.

Flyin' High wrote:I had considered Nevinera as an LMSer due to him being on of the people who commented specifically on DH being civvie, but I can't figure out how he could be LMSer and still have as much info as he appears to have this game.

I don't know how to answer this within the constraints of etiquette as I now understand them :-\
I guess you should reread the plasmids. One of them would allow someone to hypothetically gain that information quite early.

And that's two! Um, I mean I think that's two, but don't actually know.
But well done, everyone but me!

I had better vote - I'm out of town, and my access to Internet is occasional until tomorrow night.
I'm going with Aces, reluctantly.

His reaction to my dump still bothers me, and I found the early voters yesterday to be suspiciously opportunistic.
(FH and aces mostly, Kate went early, but there wasn't any opportunism there, since she went first, and I kind of believe her that she misinterpreted me on the topic).

I'm not at all confident about him, but I've got nothing better.

Huh. I was pretty sure we still had a big brother floating around, but I expected a kill last night.

The possibilities I see:
- someone missed their night action
- I was wrong, and both bb are dead (crosses fingers)
- we got lucky on an 85% kill chance.
- they tried to kill Cohen, who is not easily killed
- protective plasmid?

I'm starting to wonder if maybe we have more civs left than I thought.
If my guesses were right, the odds of no kill last night are vanishingly small.
Do we have any missing players left at this point?
(sorry, I'm playing from an iPad, and searching is hard)

I'm going to be on the road all day.
I should be available some this evening and tomorrow afternoon,
But I'll be semi missing.
Going to Charlottesville until Sunday!

Nah, I'm just not going to commit any *more* gross breaches of etiquette. Existing ones are still useful ;-)

Kate wrote: So, you think she's bad, you mentioned earlier that you *cough* thought *cough* she was bad, and since I voted for her I should be looked at?

If you want to kill one of the remaining civs, that's a fabulous idea. I've made it pretty clear that I thought she was bad since way back at the Bea lynch, like day 7? So is it really all that surprising that I'm ready to vote for her?

I'd be happy to look at Aces tomorrow, as I have also said a few times before.

I mentioned specifically that I had earlier thought she was bad for what I figured out later was an inconclusive reason.
I don't feel I can make that much more specific, but I am not certain of any of the remaining roles at all.

AceofSpaces wrote: FH actually took the time to look up post and make a case, presenting evidence. I thought it was compelling. I voted to support it. Not sure how that is a bad thing to do. In fact, it is pretty damn consistent with what I've been saying forever now. I feel like I'm repeating myself at this point. Your sudden turn around on Mongoose is what freaks me out.

I haven't turned around at all. I still find her one of the better suspects for the lynch, and I'm wavering between her and you.
Your early eager vote does not scream 'civ' at me, but I also find FH's case fairly solid.

I'll vote Mongoose too, since it doesn't appear to matter anymore, and everybody is so impatient.

That was odd. Aren't we still a day early?
Big case against Mongoose (compelling, admittedly) and then boom, boom, boom, three early votes against her.

I really doubt she's on Team Adam, but I think the odds are decent that she's a Ryaner..
But this smacks to me of people wanting a quick lynch to whittle down the competition;
constructing a bandwagon and then riding it.

I'm still deciding behind mongoose and Ace, but I think we should take a hard look at Kate, Ace, and FH for this sudden flocking vote.
I particularly see this is a big 'someone else' vote by Aces, trying to keep the wagon rolling.

Epignosis wrote: I have an idea for these people who want to improve education: Get the students Mafia accounts and have them participate in a few games.

Can you imagine what politics would become?
"I'd vote for him, but I have a suspicion that he's only pretending to be like that; some of his statements didn't feel.."
Oh. I guess not much would change. Come to think of it, public schools *are* a little like mafia.

EBWOP: *if* he's who I think he is.

I'm not Cohen. But he's who I think he is, he's still good.

Dom wrote: Why are you suspecting Mongoose now?

I'm not, particularly.

It came up, and I remembered that I was one of those who had seemed pretty confident and voted for her rez.
If I had to vote in a vacuum tomorrow, I'd lean toward Aces over Mongoose because of the strange reaction to my info dump.

(I follow your line of thought Aces, but if it were me I'd scowl and then reach eagerly for the vote button.
I certainly wouldn't think "well, she's probably a baddie, but it might be *unfair* to vote for her").

I just didn't want anyone passing on Mongoose because I thought she was good :-\

Mongoose wrote:You guys went with your gut several days ago when you voted me back. I told you all that you wouldn't regret it (and as long as you are a Civ), you won't. I'm at worst morally ambiguous. A lot of my compatriots are dead or seem to be dead, but I'm still hanging in there.

I went with Mongoose based on a uh, gut feeling. But I've found several ways my intuition could have failed me in the time period since then, and now I have no confidence that earlier-nev was correct.

Spaghetti also surprised me - I was almost certain Sullivan was dead.
But I guess alive and not doing anything is logically comparable.

I think I see a bandwagon forming. All of you voting the same way, this early?
Well I'm not buying it. I'm going to vote for spaghetti instead of spaghetti,
And I hope others will join me!

Seriously though, this is kind of rough on people with no nk :-/
I guess this way we will get to see who he is?

Dom wrote: W I F O M

Um.. I do not think that means what you think it means.

That argument can only be applied to a decision in which you are committed to your choice.
You however, get to try me out, decide if I'm for real, and then kill me if I'm not.
Neither cup is dangerous for you.

Linki Dom: glad to hear that :-)

Hedgeowl wrote:

Nevinera wrote:It's not like it's a surprise that you voted for me hedge, but you really should mention when you do it.

I haven't voted yet, but didn't think I needed to tell anyone.

I think you meant Boom.

I'm sorry, I misread that poll >.<

Devin the Omniscient wrote:Yes I would like to hear from both before I vote but I will need to vote very soon.

I have to start getting ready for my Grandma's birthday party.

Not sure what else I can tell you. I'm already kind of riding the edge of the rules.
I have no idea why she would think I'm Cohen though.

Bullzeye wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Is outing dead players illegal MP?

I'm not MP but anybody at all could tell you it is. So is infodumping tbh.

The rules post doesn't mention info dumping.
Outing is illegal, hinting at roles is discouraged, but allowed.
I'm sure I'm on thin ice out here, but hopefully MP will warn me before squashing me :-/

I'd assume dead players are protected too, but it doesn't hurt to ask.

Is outing dead players illegal MP?

AceofSpaces wrote:

Kate wrote:Nev is reading as genuine to me and we think we know he is, I think we should keep him around as long as we can.

Aces, an alliance is not a horrible idea. We all have targets on our back at this point and those who refuse to vote with the "civs" may show who is not one. After what happened last night we are all likely to get attacked to it anyway. Might as well give it our best shot while we have a chance to.

I'm inclined to trust nev.

"Refuse to vote with the 'civs'"? Really? I don't know you from a hole in the ground, Kate. Not only am I supposed to trust your vote, but now if I *don't* vote your way I'm automatically not a civ? WOAH.

The problem with a "civ" alliance is that there is no way to prove you are a civie, and on top of that there is no way to prove your vote is any more on key than any other vote. You know who this "civ" alliance would benefit most, Kate? Team Adam. Those big daddies are really only vulnerable to lynches, so if they were to form a voting block like this "civ alliance" where they could all vouch for each other and then claim anyone who doesn't vote with them is a baddie, then they could coast to the end of the game.

So, that is why your idea is super flawed and super suspicious.

Probably going to vote for you later.

If it helps any, one of them definitely died last night.

It's not like it's a surprise that you voted for me hedge, but you really should mention when you do it.

Boomslang wrote:My apologies for not contributing this weekend, folks; I've been at the Bunbury Music Festival in Cincy, and this will also prevent me from waiting around to vote this afternoon. Right now, I'm most suspicious of Nev for vaguely threatening remarks, so I'm casting a vote that way.

I don't find that surprising at all.

Linki hedge:

Yeah, keep trying to ride that cart.
"I'm one of you! Nev is just trying to lynch me because I questioned him!"
My behavior would not make any sense at all were that the case.
I'd be immediately revealed on your death!
What would I say, "oops, I was so sure, please don't lynch me now"?

AceofSpaces wrote:

Spacedaisy wrote:I see you said you wanted to hear from me, Dom. I apologize for my falling quiet after Bea's lynch. I have been busy between work and life in general. Yesterday I was out of town for almost all day for my nephew's first birthday party. I don't really know who I suspect at this moment because Bea was my last strong feeling either way. Then the last man standing crap started and now I feel a bit like I could swing a cat by it's tail and probably hit someone who would potentially have a kill at this point. I saw what you said about Nev, but I could also read it the way he explained what he was saying so I'm not sure it means anything. Either way I would bet if he isn't lynched someone will kill him tonight after a comment like that which could possibly be read as a slip up. Given his info he seems to have I am more inclined to believe hm at the moment and maybe toss a vote on hedgeowl. I have a bit of time to decide before I have to go to work though,so I want to think on it.

Linki: Aces, what role are you thinking Nev might be?

I don't know who he is, but I don't like it when people try to barter for lynches. It comes across as desperate and I don't trust it. Like I said, the last person to do that ended up being Fontaine. Also, if Nev really has information that could help the civie's he should have shared it sooner.

After rereading some things I now know who is *hinting* at though. Not sure I believe it, but at least I see it now.

@Nev, nice scare tactic's bro.

The best scare tactics are also the truth.

I'm not 'bartering for lynches', I'm offering proof for my claims. Unusual, I know.
I wish could prove them with requiring you to lynch someone first, because that would be way safer for me,
But I don't see a way to do that.

I'm not surprised I "come across as desperate", I kind of am.

Linki:
You're surprised hedge? Really?
Who else am ging to vote for, right after I hitch my fate to your lynch?

People who are not hedge - seriously, you should vote for me if you aren't pleased by the result of lynching hedge.

Voted hedge, obviously.

Incidentally, if I do die today anyway, pay attention to the people who lead that charge.
They are the ones that are afraid they'll be exposed, and want me gone before I can do it.

Most of them needn't worry though, I don't have a lot more to offer after hedge :-/

Hedgeowl wrote: So now Dom and I are suspicious because we question you? Isn't that how this works. If you say you have information arent we at least supposed to ask the how, why part rather than just believing you right off.

Also, no one actually said you were their lynch target yet. In fact Mata was the only one declaring her intentions so directly and those were for spaghetti. (Remembering Mata's early arguments about spaghettis playstyle in a previous game being similar is worth considering.) Lashing out and targeting others seems a bit strange when no has even voted yet or declared intentions of voting for you.

Oh I don't thnk dom is suspicious, I just think that most of the people still surviving are LMS.
I have no info about him.
I also don't think you are suspicious hedge.
When i know exactly who you are, it's not "suspicion".

Feel free to question me - I'm not retaliating at you, yours is just the only
role I know about that most people will agree is bad.
I'm short on bargaining chips, sorry.


Aces: I'm not sure I follow your point.
The fact that I didn't offer any help until I threatened does mean I'm bad, just that I want to win -
There's no team victory in this game, and I have to be alive at the end.
I have been fairly clear about the tactical reasons for that behavior,
But I'd be happy to further explain if anyone doesn't follow the reasoning.

I sounds like a few of you intend to lynch me anyway.

Tell you what, lynch hedge first - she's probably fairly dangerous by now.
Then if you still feel I'm bad lynch me tomorrow, eh?

Dom wrote:Nev said, "other" last man standing folks.

As if he is one...

No, I said it as if *you* were one. Because the odds of that are good.

Kate wrote: Maybe we should form an alliance of those we believe to be civ?

I would love that, but it would tactically unsound right now.
As soon as we organize, the LMS people will observe the voting bloc threat and immediately kill every single one of us.
As a non-threat, I can wait until the endgame and hope for a couple of lucky rolls on the randomizer to keep me alive.
It's not a great chance, but I don't see anything better happening.

I'm kind of wondering if MP foresaw quite such a bloodbath here.
The normal tactics of mafia are all useless now, and we're left with our fates resting almost entirely on randomizers :-\

HedgeOwl wrote:Do you not consider the 2nd civ team an alliance?

As far as I can tell, there aren't enough of us left to call it an 'alliance'.
I don't feel I can safely comment on my role any further, but you should reread the list.

I'm not sure what you think is a slip-up.
Drawing attention to myself probably was?

It hardly matters though, you don't need to convince the civs to vote for me,
you need to convince the other LMS folks to do so.
I'm not just a civ, I'm seriously no threat to anyone now.
All I've got is data, and its pretty useless data after last night.
I can tell you the roles of three of the dead folks, and I can point out two individuals as members of Ryan's army,
But since there is effectively no longer an alliance of civs trying to lynch the baddie threat
(instead, there is a mob of LMS players trying to lynch the ones most likely to kill them),
None of my info is remotely useful.

Matahari wrote: Nev, I'm not sure about the meaning of your last sentence. I haven't noticed anyone acting suspicious of you/trying to trump up a case. Or did you just mean that in a general way, as in all civvies are in more danger?

The latter. All the last-man-standing players need everyone to die, and I doubt there are even three people left that can win together.

>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Uhh... wow. is all i really have to say about that. I reaaaally hope some baddies got taken out with that one as well.

I am almost certain that at least two of those players were bad, and have strong evidence that one more of them was.
Bad in the sense of 'on one of the original baddie teams'.
Now that all the Ryaners are lms, the list of 'people that want me dead to win' has gotten unpleasantly long :-(

Dom wrote:....there goes my entire suspect list....

I have solid intel suggesting that your baddie list was substantially correct.
There were a lot of good .. Guesses? By various parties last night.

Kate wrote:Holy crap.

Is every night going to be like this?
It almost feels like rolling the dice for survival now :-\