Search found 8 matches

by Nevinera
Thu Dec 19, 2013 9:58 am
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Night 2] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

MovingPictures07 wrote: You suspected them, then started doubting it, then came off it completely.
I understand; it could be genuine. Just thought otherwise.

Well, do you have any thoughts as to anything else going on? Your insight is always very intriguing, regardless of alignment.
I have to admit, I've only been skimming the thread.

I think the failed kill on llama is very telling though -
First, I don't see any roles that would be kill-immune or defender roles visible, so it must be a secret role.
(My guess is the DA, and that he gets to protect someone and picked llama).

I've generally noticed a tendency to try to off somebody that is in the middle -
not pointing straight at you, but saying things that you would prefer not be said,
or prompting significant discussion when you'd rather things stayed quiet.
I think that in this case the latter is more likely; llama has always been a wonderful conversation starter.

I also think I recognize his flailing-around as civ-llama (though I wont trust it next game, sir!)
He's trying to scrape information out of thin air, and doing it in the least safe but most effective way :-)

Beyond that, and my observations about MR, all I've got is people that are acting confusingly. But a lot of
people appear to do that on purpose any more, probably because it makes their baddie and civvie natures
difficult to tell apart? I'm a little specifically suspicious of j^j^j, but I think that whole stack of people that voted for MR
needs attention. People can say anything, and can lie marvelously well, but there are only a few ways to deceive with your voting and still have an impact on the results.

If anyone else wanted to spend the time tracking down the degree of expectedness for each of those MR votes, I'd be interested in that analysis.
I think some of those votes were intended to be blendy (not necessarily a baddie trait though), and some were opportunistic.
by Nevinera
Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:02 pm
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Night 2] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

MovingPictures07 wrote: Does anyone else think Nev might be bad? I'm hesitant, BUT, I think it's really weird the way he suspected MR really early on, then slowly backed away from the suspicion, finally to arrive at this post above.

I know he's busy, but it seems convenient. Maybe I'm way off, but I want to hear what others think too.
I've posted like.. Four times. I'm not sure how I could have 'slowly' backed away from anything.

I suspected MR for weak reasons that others agreed with, and then changed my mind after reading his reactions that day.
They didn't feel fake to me. I think I've been fairly clear about the few points I've made.
by Nevinera
Wed Dec 18, 2013 9:00 pm
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Night 2] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

thellama73 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:Who wants to take a stab at trying to prove they are civ? :)
I survived an NK last night. Does that mean nothing?
It's not prove of civness, but it certainly improves the odds a lot. I've voting llama for that reason.

And I'm sorry I missed the vote. I was sure I'd be back before time, but we had to run out the door to get to the lights festival at the botanical gardens (awesome, btw).
It wouldn't have affected anything anyway - I wouldn't have voted MR, because his reaction to my original accusation
felt very civ to me.. but I'm at a bit of a loss right now.

I'm kind of hoping for a bit of analysis out of llama, who I'm feeling most confident of so far,
to save me having to reread the thread in my copious free time :-)
by Nevinera
Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:58 pm
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Night 1] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

thellama73 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote: Llama, what do you think of Nev?
Interesting you should ask, as I had just filed away a suspicion of him that I thought was premature to bring up.

I know he is really busy, but I also know he is very savvy, and I am worried that he is deliberately remaining in the background to avoid suspicion. Notice how no one has talked about him until you brought him up just now. It is definitely the kind of play he would make if he thought he could get away with it, and since he has been busy and quiet the last couple of games he has been in, now would be a perfect time to make that play.

I will certainly be watching him closely.
It is totally the kind of "play" I would make! I can think of no better opportunity than now -
I have the perfect cover of *actually being incredibly busy*, which you have to admit
Is ideal for a gambit such as "trying not to talk too much so that nobody lynches me".

On the plus side, "watching me closely" should really take very little effort on your part :)
by Nevinera
Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:18 am
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Night 1] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

After reading MR's reaction, I no longer think it likely he's bad, so I'm glad that never went anywhere.

I actually think that a no-lynch day one is a big civ win, since it wasn't coordinated that way -
We got a significant portion of the information we would have gotten anyway, and didn't lose a civ
(which, let's face it, always happens. Minimalism mafia aside).

I gave up on trying to read Mongoose long ago, and the statement in question reads pretty naturally to me,
but if Llama sticks to his guns I might vote there anyway - I'm not seeing a lot to go on right now.

I'm taking Blankets. I do actually have a copy I've been meaning to read, and I like pictures.
Anyway, I'm going to go read and reread the first post. I might read it again also.
by Nevinera
Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:32 pm
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Day 1] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

MP's impression of MisterRearranger has added a small amount of weight to the scale, and I'm not sure I'll be back in time to vote after this, so I'm going to go ahead and put my vote there.
by Nevinera
Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:08 am
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Day 1] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

thellama73 wrote:
Not a gambit at all. Let me try to rephrase so it is more clear:

It would be easy for people to jump on me, since I was mentioned as "crying out" in the Host Post. It would be easy for people to read into it. However, as a baddie it might make sense to pointedly not read into it, watching others scramble around in the dark and make mistakes. When I am lynched (which I am sure I will be) and flip civ, the baddies can then say "well, we tried to tell you not to read too much into that" and come out looking like good guys.

When I am a baddie, I often defend people I know to be civs very aggresively so thta when they flip civ, I look good. I think that is what Boo and MR might be doing.
I follow and agree. I have also noticed that teams of baddies usually create some minor conflicts among themselves in the thread,
so as to distance from each other in people's minds, and I am therefore looking (gently) at Llama and Johns as well.

I also think that the first poll, rather than selecting somebody to get something, rewarded people who voted a certain way.
I think that idea was already thrown around, but my guess is that anyone who voted for the first *night kill target* will get a bonus.
I doubt Llama got anything out of it.

I will hopefully get back to this before the poll expires, and I hate to vote with so little to work from.
But if I had to vote now, I'd probably have to randomize among those four.
by Nevinera
Sat Dec 14, 2013 12:07 pm
Forum: Previous Side Missions
Topic: [ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia
Replies: 1705
Views: 43641

Re: [Prologue] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

Bah, I missed the game start.

I'm not terribly available this weekend, but I see that our poll runs another day yet.
I'm going to be even less available than before (just started a new contract job),
but I'll try to contribute more than last game, at least once per day on weekdays :-)

I gather nobody is confident of how this poll works, or what it's for?
I'll just randomize the unvoted .. Moving Pictures it is.

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