The Syndicate

Alright, Caps and DDL I guess.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:That's the civ point of view, the baddie point of view if that you were watching the wagon thinking if it was worth entering it, then fabricated an ISO to back down. Or maybe you are teammates with him.

I've had a baddie vibe on you all game, so I'm gonna bet on it.

Ahh. Well, you're wrong. He very well could be bad, and I understand why it wouldn't look great for me if he is, but at this point I don't feel super confident in a vote for him.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

nutella wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:And yeah I'm aware she made an ISO but that could have been done on purpose so yeah.

I think I'm gonna vote for nutella and Bass, and maybe possible Mac.

Is that sentence about me? What does it mean? "Could have been done on purpose" what do you think I accidentally farted out a post?

I'm just antecipating a possible "but she did do an ISO to explain the Bass vote" and saying it could have been something a baddie would do.

...I still don't get what you're saying. What Bass vote? I was considering joining some other people in voting for Bass, but I decided to actually ISO him and when I did it turned out that I found little reason to actually suspect him, so I'm most likely not going to vote for him.

Hey where the hell is everyone? I've got two hours to decide who to vote for, and so do the rest of you...

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:And yeah I'm aware she made an ISO but that could have been done on purpose so yeah.

I think I'm gonna vote for nutella and Bass, and maybe possible Mac.

Is that sentence about me? What does it mean? "Could have been done on purpose" what do you think I accidentally farted out a post?

To be honest I haven't even been paying attention to the indie roles and forgot there was one that recruited. But yeah, I still think it's possible.

Russtifinko wrote:

Quin wrote:

nutella wrote:Also though, we've been kind of assuming the YTs only have 2 members left, but considering their team is chock full of secrets they might have recruited by now and might be doing way better than we think.

ehhhhhhhh????????

I second this "eh?". Now that you mention it, recruitment would be a pretty fitting mechanic for a religious cult, but nutella, where did you come up with this? Do you have any non-lore reason to think it?

The fact that Yellow Turbans only have 3 members next to Nanman's 5, combined with the fact that all of their roles have secrets, leads me to believe it's likely they have a recruitment potential.

Also though, we've been kind of assuming the YTs only have 2 members left, but considering their team is chock full of secrets they might have recruited by now and might be doing way better than we think.

D0-D1 Bass is fairly active/assertive; he resists trusting JJJ; in the duel mechanics discussion he is in favor of dueling two suspects, earning JJJ's "baddies go the simple route" accusation. His Day 1 votes are for Scotty and MM (2nd vote for MM while Wilgy also only had 1 vote at the time), so actually a fairly good look there/makes me think he's less likely to be nanman actually.
Day 2 he's again fairly active, asking people's opinions, commenting on things, etc. Votes again for MM and for himself. 6th vote for MM. Still looking quite good on that front.
Day 3 he misses the vote, after having said "I wouldn't mind dueling today."
Day 4 he comments that the above comment didn't get more heat, is otherwise inactive while he receives a bunch of votes and the next day he is surprised he got a bunch of votes.
Day 5 he is again inactive and missed the vote for the third time in a row.
Today he makes the weird comment about Quin not being killed as a high poster (ignoring the fact that DDL has more posts), though he does then vote for DDL along with Quin (voting early to make sure he doesn't miss it again).

...Okay, you know what, now that I did this ISO I'm much less convinced Bass is bad. His voting record for MM makes it pretty improbable that he's Nanman (which is the team I originally thought was likely for him and DDL together), and I don't really expect him to be Yellow Turban. He could be, but I don't see any actual reason to suspect as much.

Now it feels like I and a bunch of other people have been somehow guided to want to lynch Bass without any real reasoning. I wonder how that came about? Someone remind me how the Day 4 bandwagon on him started?

Yeah, I'm good with that plan. I might pull up his ISO since DDL asked and since the thread is so dead right now.

Actually, move Bass higher on that list. I'm quickly convincing myself that he and DDL are teamies.

Bass's point applies equally (actually slightly more) to DDL and I find him more likely to be bad than Quin. I've quasi-trusted both of them for most of the game but DDL has been acting pretty strangely and I think it's time to look more critically at him. I'd be happy to put some combination of him, CapsFan, and Simon up for the lynch; Bass and Russ are also still decent choices imo.

^Ah. I finally understand this. I do in fact remember him buddying up to MM a little bit.

Oh no RIP Glorf And too bad about DP.

By my count 16 out of 30 players voted. The participation rate in this game continues to be shameful

Sloon, you have less than 30 minutes as of now Also, as I just explained to DDL, DP is not a "mere lurker lynch." His votes are sketchy.

Yeah, I'll go with Caps and DP.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I don't get what people are seeing in DP when he has an ISO that is shorter than this sentence I am writing right now.

You might as well have the same probability of success by voting for Soneji (if he were still alive).

Where I come from, we don't lynch people like DP. We wait for the host to modkill/replace them.

Because he still pops in to vote, and he just so happens to stack votes on competing bandwagons that make for a not-so-good record. For instance, he voted for two of the closest runner-ups to MM on day 2.

Scotty wrote:

nutella wrote:I think a quick look at my D1-D2 record should dispel any idea that I could be Nanman.

My best question is: are you one of them Amarillo Turbanos?

You mean "turbantes amarillos," I think And no.

Scotty wrote:

DFaraday wrote:I won't be on again before the day ends, so I'll give some quick thoughts:

Boomslang is reading pretty genuine to me. DDL less so, but I'm not feeling terribly bad about him either.

Scotty, Golden, and Nero (when he's around) are coming across civ to me.

I am still suspicious of Glorfindel, but I want to pursue the Caps case this time.

I do think Nutella has been blendy and rather too agreeable all game, so I need to review her posts.

I noticed that votes for Russ seem to fluctuate wildly from day to day, which gives me pause in regards to Russ voters.

RE: Nutella- I actually think she has been argumentative and throwing around all kinds of suspicions and seeing what sticks. Not agreeable. I would hold that honor to Quin, honestly.

Where have I done so? I don't feel like I've been throwing around suspicions -- I've had very few original thoughts this game. I usually go off of other people's cases and change or develop my thoughts post by post.

I think a quick look at my D1-D2 record should dispel any idea that I could be Nanman.

Scotty wrote:

nutella wrote:I'm not MP's teammate. As you can see when I voted, Russ said at first that he was voting for Bass, and then switched to MP at the last minute. At the moment I voted I thought he was voting for Bass, so I also voted for Bass in hopes of getting him in second rather than Glorf. Also, I really thought MP was good. He had me fooled. While I felt fine voting for Bass because though my read of him was pretty neutral it was not as good as my read of MP.

So why even include the post talking about your regret in not voting MP?

After I voted I realized Russ changed his mind, causing MP to have more votes than Bass, so I failed in my intention to save Glorf.

Scotty wrote:

nutella wrote:Also, you really think MP wanted so badly to duel his teammate? That would be quite a brave ploy, especially considering his team only had 3 members total.

Wait, I think I missed something. Who is MP's teammate? I thought MP is the only revealed bad guy on that team.

I'm saying that if you think I'm MP's teammate his strong desire to duel me would make no sense.

Also, you really think MP wanted so badly to duel his teammate? That would be quite a brave ploy, especially considering his team only had 3 members total.

I'm not MP's teammate. As you can see when I voted, Russ said at first that he was voting for Bass, and then switched to MP at the last minute. At the moment I voted I thought he was voting for Bass, so I also voted for Bass in hopes of getting him in second rather than Glorf. Also, I really thought MP was good. He had me fooled. While I felt fine voting for Bass because though my read of him was pretty neutral it was not as good as my read of MP.

That being said, I do sort of agree with his assessment of Mac and INH, but atm I'm not feeling like either of those are strong enough suspicions to get my vote today over candidates like DP or Caps. When I ISO'd Mac I felt pretty neutral about him, and I could easily see him as a baddie hiding in the background, but DDL's tunneling of him is kinda weird. Not nearly as weird as how he briefly considered feeling the same about INH but then suddenly dropped that didn't care when Boomslang posted and caused him to (for some reason) flip the f out.

Huh, DDL is acting rather odd. He's suddenly all over Boomslang for calling his posts suspicious without explaining why, when in his reaction to Boom's post he is essentially doing the same exact thing. And ignoring the fact that DP's votes have been specifically suspicious? Weak, DDL. Pay attention.

Glorfindel -- nice summary, will be handy to refer to for MP's interactions. Given the variety of his exchanges with JJJ it still seems to me like they could have been teammates, but you could also be right that they weren't. Inconclusive. I'm rather inclined to disagree with you about Dom though, I think MP's defense of him was so incredibly strong that I would be amazed if they were teammates because that would be the least subtle save attempt ever. But hey, anything is possible and maybe MP was just that confident.

TheCapsFan wrote:Took a quick glance at the vote patterns, because I like those, and I could definitely see JJJ as scum.

I'd like to put up a case against Disgruntled Porcupines. The original reason I was drawn to him was because his vote on me was the scummiest.
- Has posted like twice all game, both just saying who he votes for, with no reasoning.
- Day 2, he votes for Russetfinko (alongside MM and JJJ) and timmer, who we know to be town (alongside MP and JJJ once again).
- Day 3, he votes for me and timmer again (alongside MP)
- Always one of the last to vote, and only against people with substantial amounts of votes to their name

This is decent I guess.

Unsure how I feel about CapsFan right now but I could see him and JJJ being MP's teammates I guess.

Pleasantly surprised at the lynch result!! Nice.

RIP TH Weird that the YTs have killed another non-player.

Sorsha wrote:I'd like to say I find it notable that MovingPictures and TheCapsFan both voted for each other to be prefects. (and they both also voted for jjj )

I'll likely be voting for CapsFan today since I think he voted for one of his teammates in the prefect poll.

Nice catch.

Oh damn MP might have been the better choice to save Glorf, but I also think he's good... hrmph.

Oh hello Russ. Showed up to vote to save yourself, huh? Probably won't work.

I'm voting Russ and Bass (in hopes of edging out Glorf)

Dom wrote:

nutella wrote:

MacDougall wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:I went with Mac and Bass.

Why?

Last I checked you didn't much explain your votes either

Hollow accusation with zero meaning in it. What's the point here, nutella?

Sorry, what? I am pointing out that Mac's questioning of TH is sort of hypocritical seeing as he also didn't explain his votes, and I'd like him to do so. It is neither a "hollow accusation" nor does it have "zero meaning." I continue to feel as though you are making up bullshit reactions to perfectly reasonable posts because you have decided I'm bad and need to bend everything I say to support that.

MacDougall wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:I went with Mac and Bass.

Why?

Last I checked you didn't much explain your votes either

Boom, why does the messenger post add to your suspicion of DDL? I'm pretty sure that role is just posting opinions without any basis in info, so why put much stock in it? I think all it tells us is (a) DDL does not have that specific civ role and (b) whoever does have that role doesn't trust him for some unexplained reason.

Not sure whom that's directed at, but I just reread his posts and am finding him pretty genuine actually. Just would like some more participation.

Looks like Mac was absent for Day 0 and missed the prefect vote. Day 1, Mac goes after MP for his town-read list. Talks some mechanics with JJJ, supports dueling two suspects. Voted for Wilgy and JJJ because he "wanted to see them duel." Mostly looks good so far.

Day 2 he says he thinks Dom is civ, questions Glorfindel a little, votes for Dunny (because he disappeared and I guess never responded to something Mac said to him on d1) and for Russ (says he "feels neg" on him, but doesn't seem to have mentioned him at all until the vote post). Says he doesn't think MM is a good candidate because he doesn't trust the wilgy wifom reasoning, and he defends his use of meta. His reaction to the lynch result is "Wilgy's wifom wankery ftl." Looking a little less than perfect from this lynch -- my main question is his Russ vote, which he doesn't really give much reasoning for. But he was only the second to vote for Russ (after DDL), and MM had 5 votes at the time and Dom 3, so probably not a save attempt unless he was hoping to pick up the Russ train. Still think he looks alright.

Day 3. Brings out a theory against Simon, but does nothing with it afterward. Says Glorfindel's post about MM not voting for timmer is a good point. Says he's pinged by bwt, and thinking of voting for Dunny (for a response to him) and Bass (for wanting to duel and mac reads his tone as bad). He actually votes for Timmer and BWT. Is anti- lynching TH because he thinks it's a framejob/weak wifom reasoning, and jokes(?) that Sloonei is always bad. He's "intrigued" by the sorsha wagon.
So a little all over the place on Day 3. Nothing incriminating, still, just all over the place. Like it kind of felt like all of his posts were about different things/people, except for continuing to trust Dom and insisting that TH couldn't be MM's teammate.

Day 4 - he makes fun of the messenger role, still doesn't understand votes on Sorsha, calls me "fake," says he doesn't suspect Glorf, says he has some concerns about BWT, Bass, and Dunny, and that he'll try to make more of a case but nothing since then -- he hasn't posted for over 36 hours.


And that's that. Overall I'm feeling fairly neutral about him still.

Turnip Head wrote:nutella what do you think about Mac or Bass?

No idea, really. I had an okay vibe from Bass early on but he hasn't been around a ton, and that seems pretty normal for him but could go either way alignment-wise. Mac, I really don't know how to tell. Tbh I haven't noticed him very much, he seems to come in and give his two cents or point out a couple things/people he finds suspicious -- he accused me of sounding "fake" a couple times without much explanation. Someone who knows his meta better than I do said something along the lines of his style being aggressive(? was that the word they used?) and that he looked more or less his usual self, but I don't know, I've barely noticed him this game despite a decent post count. I'll ISO him right now because I'm curious now.

linki @ Golden -- I agree with you about Glorfindel. Again, I think Lorab is probably civ but I haven't liked or agreed with her tunneling lately. At the very beginning of the phase I thought I would be looking at TH and Glorfindel, but I kept an open mind and right now they're actually two of my civviest reads.

Dom wrote:

nutella wrote:I am of course aware of all of those posts. None of them, however, except for that one that was already brought up, actually advocate for the lynching of low posters. He repeatedly discusses the odds of one of the teams being inactive, which I guess you could say implies that he thinks it would be a good idea to go after inactives, but only once does he say it outright, and he never really follows up on it. I guess you and I interpreted his posts differently, but to me, advocating for lynching low posters is a very different thing from stating observations about mechanics and numbers in the game.

Semantics. Sad ! You are bad !

I don't see what's bad about explaining my reasoning.

Dom wrote:

nutella wrote:Also, lack of precedence does not mean lack of probability. There's probably a fancy logical fallacy term for that but idgaf. Just because you've never seen an inactive mafia team before doesn't mean it couldn't happen, especially considering the Yellow Turban team only consists of three players, and this game has WAY more than three inactive players. They only killed once, and it was on SVS, an inactive player -- perhaps if nobody in the team had been paying attention they wouldn't know SVS hadn't been participating and just picked her to get rid of. Idk, I just think Glorfindel's lines of thinking are not entirely unreasonable

You are not wrong in that.

However, I find the probability to be very low. Hostin' Epi does not randomize roles. He cherry picks roles-- or has int he past. I doubt he'd put all people he suspects might be no-shows as his baddie teams. And he didn't. MM and Wilgy are not no-shows.

So your ignoring the facts is troublesome. Very troublesome. We need a better leader than that.

I am not ignoring any facts. Everything I said there is based on facts and probability, and I never actually said I believe the YTs are inactive, I just said it was possible and defended Glorfindel's reasoning for it. As for Epi cherry-picking teams, I acknowledged that when Golden pointed it out, and yes, it probably does make Glorfindel's conclusion even less likely. He probably didn't know that or take it into account originally, so again, as I said, based on probability his line of thinking was not unreasonable. That is all I have said. Show me where I have "ignored facts."

Dom wrote:

nutella wrote:Rare for the two of us to be so at odds, though -- we so often think alike as civs. Perhaps we have drifted apart

Bad ! Manipulating with emotion. Guilt. Bad !

Really?? No. That was just an observation I had. It felt weird arguing with Lorab, because I don't suspect her. This post may as well have been in OT green as it was an observation of our history. Not emotional manipulation.



5 hours to go and I still have no idea who I'm going to vote for. Russ is still a possibility, but like Sloonei said it feels a little weird throwing a vote on him for no substantial reason other than he hasn't defended. I don't really feel super strongly about Sorsha. I could see voting for TheCapsFan, he was oddly active for a very brief period and yet within those few posts made some pretty bizarre statements and contradictions iirc -- I might look back at that. The recent talk of Boomslang has me thinking; thus far I haven't really considered him/I've had a slight civ read on him. Might ISO there.
Not really feeling confident about any suspicions today. Hoping the best for the lynch

Rare for the two of us to be so at odds, though -- we so often think alike as civs. Perhaps we have drifted apart

LoRab wrote:

nutella wrote:I mean, I would be surprised if nobody on the team participated, but let's just take Night 1 -- missed PMs happen, and again, there were enough inactive players at that point that I could see a three-person team missing their night PM. I'm not saying it's necessarily the most likely explanation and I didn't really agree with Glorf when he suggested it, but it's not exactly improbable either and I think you're being pretty harsh on him.

Linki: Fair point, yeah, I guess Epi wouldn't let a team be made up of only inactives (though there might be a couple players who have been inactive this game that he might not have foreseen as such)

You literally asked for posts showing that he had posted about inactives more than once. I responded by posting examples. You aren now saying I am being harsh. I think you are being disingenuous.

I don't suspect you for it (yet), but I also don't see you as being fully fair in your assessment.

And, sure, disagree with me. But enough with the subtle not quite accusing me but sort of saying you think I'm bad. If you think I'm bad. Say so. If you don't, quit with the quasi-accusations. Either way, I'm civ. But I'm not sure what your'e trying to get at with this whole line of whatever.

I don't think you're bad, actually. The above post to Glorf was mostly a joke. I actually think that your absence for the first few days makes you pretty unlikely to have BTSC. I just haven't agreed with your accusations against Glorf and I was pointing out what I understood to be a false accusation. I thought you were being harsh on him well before you responded with the posts from his iso -- in fact, the thing that mainly struck me as harsh was your insistence that he had said those things without providing the receipts.

Anyway, I think Glorf has a point -- this is all pretty tangential and getting the thread off track, and I don't suspect either of you. Who do you think we should talk about?

I mean, I would be surprised if nobody on the team participated, but let's just take Night 1 -- missed PMs happen, and again, there were enough inactive players at that point that I could see a three-person team missing their night PM. I'm not saying it's necessarily the most likely explanation and I didn't really agree with Glorf when he suggested it, but it's not exactly improbable either and I think you're being pretty harsh on him.

Linki: Fair point, yeah, I guess Epi wouldn't let a team be made up of only inactives (though there might be a couple players who have been inactive this game that he might not have foreseen as such)

Actually Glorfindel, I'd like your opinion on something. Considering Lorab hadn't even been aware that the game had started at the time of the YTs' first missed kill, and considering her outright despisal of your hypothesis, do you think she could be one of them? (I personally don't really think so but it would be pretty funny if so)

Also, lack of precedence does not mean lack of probability. There's probably a fancy logical fallacy term for that but idgaf. Just because you've never seen an inactive mafia team before doesn't mean it couldn't happen, especially considering the Yellow Turban team only consists of three players, and this game has WAY more than three inactive players. They only killed once, and it was on SVS, an inactive player -- perhaps if nobody in the team had been paying attention they wouldn't know SVS hadn't been participating and just picked her to get rid of. Idk, I just think Glorfindel's lines of thinking are not entirely unreasonable

I am of course aware of all of those posts. None of them, however, except for that one that was already brought up, actually advocate for the lynching of low posters. He repeatedly discusses the odds of one of the teams being inactive, which I guess you could say implies that he thinks it would be a good idea to go after inactives, but only once does he say it outright, and he never really follows up on it. I guess you and I interpreted his posts differently, but to me, advocating for lynching low posters is a very different thing from stating observations about mechanics and numbers in the game.

I skimmed his ISO since you didn't, and I didn't find anything. I may have missed something but I would like to see proof.

LoRab wrote: And you have definitely advocated for/supported the idea of lynching low playing players. Several times. I don't particularly want to go through all of your posts and link every time you've supported that idea, but I'm happy to if you really are going to deny that you've done so.

This is patently untrue. I have verified Glorfindel's claim that the one post mentioned is the only time he says such a thing. Kind of unbecoming for you to assume he's lying and assume you know what he's said better than he does.

Sweet lordy could people not repeatedly quote mile long posts every single post.

Or was Mr. Popular based on number of times quoted? I don't remember... man that was a fun team to be on though.

Quin wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:My first guess is that the sockpuppet is one of those things where they gain power when people quote them. I'm going to stay away for now

I have never heard of such a role.

I once invented a role (for a "Build Your Own" game in which players designed their own roles) that gained different powers based on how many times my name was said in the thread, and it's been reused/adapted a couple times -- not sure if there's precedent for a version based on number of times quoted, but it's possible. I kind of doubt that's what this sock is though, sort of an odd thing for TH to think of.

Diao Chan wrote:

nutella wrote:I am hungry for thread activity guys. I'm feeling directionless and not really confident in any suspicions, and I know we have 24 hours but I'd rather not pull votes out of nowhere. I feel helpless without JJJ or Rico to build cases for me, I could do some ISOs and try to farm something myself but I don't know where to start atm. Someone slip or something.

Peanut butter, I believe you are a good man
How are you feeling now movingpictures07
He seems very eager to kill you

lol, peanut butter. I think MP is probably civ, just misguided

Diao Chan wrote:Where missing bass
I do not remember that he recently heard from any
I'm going to look at the number of posts to see who else is silently missing