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by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:
Long Con wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:
Long Con wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:I view "pursuing her suspicion" as engaging the person she suspects, collecting the evidence, and presenting a case for her vote. She didn't, and in fact *ACTIVELY* didn't.
The way BR is pursuing Lorab doesn't surprise me. She's mostly a gut player, you should know that.
Should I?
You should. You have played with her a fair number of times... gut play is mostly how I've seen her operate, so I imagine we both saw the same lady.

And if that isn't something you recall, then read my sentence an alternate way, like "She's mostly a gut player, you should consider making this part of your knowledge." :nicenod:
First of all, don't tell me what I "should know". It just makes me more suspicious of you. You don't know how I read you, how I analyze you, and how I remember your post play in games. You know how YOU do these things, but the things I know, remember, and analyze are not going to be the same as you.
Touché. Carry on then. :grin:
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:
Long Con wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:I view "pursuing her suspicion" as engaging the person she suspects, collecting the evidence, and presenting a case for her vote. She didn't, and in fact *ACTIVELY* didn't.
The way BR is pursuing Lorab doesn't surprise me. She's mostly a gut player, you should know that.
Should I?
You should. You have played with her a fair number of times... gut play is mostly how I've seen her operate, so I imagine we both saw the same lady.

And if that isn't something you recall, then read my sentence an alternate way, like "She's mostly a gut player, you should consider making this part of your knowledge." :nicenod:
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:I view "pursuing her suspicion" as engaging the person she suspects, collecting the evidence, and presenting a case for her vote. She didn't, and in fact *ACTIVELY* didn't.
The way BR is pursuing Lorab doesn't surprise me. She's mostly a gut player, you should know that.
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Golden wrote:Every person going after JJ I lean bad on. Llama and Long Con particularly so, but MM also to some extent. The only one that is only mild ping at this point is dom.

Besides that, the case is a crock.

Long Con's case is around JJ's thing about llama. But JJ clarified that as soon as he was out of cursing, and what more was he supposed to do beyond the simplistic while cursed? In addition, the theory was good - he theorised llama didn't respond to his case effectively because he knew Jay would be cursed and so it wasn't an urgent priority. As far as day one theories go, it's as good as any.

JJ has claimed he won't be able to post as much (and he isn't posting as much) but the truth is that he has still contributed and the posts have had content.

I will use my vote to save JJ if I have to.

This is the line I like the least:
Long Con wrote:What I'm seeing in your response is a lot of ways to interpret your actions in a Civ light, but it has not convinced me that it couldn't be the way I interpreted it. I'm going to *vote JaggedJimmyJay* instead of Boomslang at this point, because JJJ is still my top suspect.
Like... I'm not convinced my theory is impossible, therefore I still think you are bad.

????
I can see that you are confused. I'll try to put it in a more clear way for you. JJJ had an interpretation for everything I found suspicious that put himself in a Civ light. Looking at the two viewpoints, I still find mine to be more likely. If JJJ had said something that renders my point of view less likely, instead of just offering an alternate perspective, then maybe I'd feel differently. Like "things didn't happen like you say, because this was said first, proving blah blah blah"... some defenses soundly prove the accusation is much more unlikely to be true.

I think that's a very clear way of putting the line that you liked the least. Perhaps you will like a different line least now. :grin:
My strong preference is a lynch for Long Con, who I think has been pingworthy in just about everything he has done the entire game.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I agree with you about LC and llama though. I agree with FZ about DH.
In much the same way as the Appeal To Emotion and the Not Much Time Right Now statements added fringe pingy garnishes to a case I already believed in... the OMGUS (or "No U") also just does NOTHING to make me suspect JJ less. I don't recall him suspecting me before I came out with a case against him.
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Ok Jimmy, thanks, I think both sides of this are out there in enough detail to let others make their own judgements. What I'm seeing in your response is a lot of ways to interpret your actions in a Civ light, but it has not convinced me that it couldn't be the way I interpreted it. I'm going to *vote JaggedJimmyJay* instead of Boomslang at this point, because JJJ is still my top suspect.

Linki: I'd also like to say that my read of you is meta-independent. I think you have a few players who can only read you through the lens of your past games and expected behaviour, but I haven't played enough with you to have that baggage on my mind.
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

thellama73 wrote:
Golden wrote:
thellama73 wrote:The RadicalFzz kill was obviously because so many people were calling him a definite civ. Today I intend to look at those who were eager to paint a target on his back.
Bullsuit.

Voting llama

I was waiting to see who ran that argument first. I find it much more likely that RadicalFuzz would be killed by someone who wanted to run that argument. I was wondering if it might be DH. I've never been part of any mafia team that has talked about killing someone because others are reading them as civ, nor have I ever hosted a mafia team having that discussion.

Your inexperience is not my fault. I've been part of such teams and I've hosted such teams. If a player is unlynchable due to being widely trusted, they make a good target for a mafia kill.
I agree. Someone being a trusted or proven Civ in the thread is extremely likely to be nightkilled in my experience.
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:23 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Oh yeah, and the reasons for a couple more minor pings.

Appeal To Emotion:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This I understand. I'm not normally the sort to dismiss things like that. I've tried to explain here that my frankness and coldness is the result of significant Mafia burnout. There's also the fact that the most heartbreaking sporting disaster of my lifetime occurred on Sunday and it's left a hole inside me that is seriously a torment. That might sound silly to many, rightfully so, but I invest a great deal of emotion in the Bengals and they traumatized me. This could perhaps be OT text, but I think it's relevant to people understanding why I'm behaving the way I am.

I don't mean to be a jerk though. I'm sorry if I have been, y'all.
And Not Going To Be Around:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm in for a really busy day, so this might be a quiet phase for me. I'm changing my continent of residence in a few months.
Both these things are strategies I have seen baddies use more than once.
by Long Con
Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:16 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Here's why I suspect JJJ. He first became my suspect when Zebra was revealed as the curser. The theory is that Jimmy's belief that Llama was the one who cursed him was fake. JJJ is an experienced player, and I don't think an experienced player would jump to the conclusion that the person who he had some suspicion about would be his curser, with any certainty. JJJ's Smiley posts condemned Llama and might have gotten him lynched if not for Rico's shenanigans. No waiting to have a discourse, not consideration that it was a frame, just right to the idea that Llama cursed him, and here's why.

The way that JJJ dealt with it, coupled with the way that Zebra interacted with the idea, leads me to the belief that it was a plan. To put it another way - starting on a little thought journey into the baddie BTSC, discussing how to take advantage of a cursing role beyond the meagre reward of messing with someone... what I saw with the two of them looks a lot like a plan.

Going from this post:
Spoiler: show
Long Con wrote:JJJ, like HamburgerBoy already pointed out, despite the fact that you couldn't talk, you managed to easily convey that you believed Llama cursed you, and why you believed he cursed you. Saying "I couldn't bloody talk" is disingenuous.

The fact that Zebra didn't agree with you and pursue Llama as a suspect makes complete sense as a baddie teammate. If Llama is going to flip Civ, then it looks good on her that she wasn't after him with you.
Now we know that's because she was responsible. There's no value in trying to frame somebody if it can't actually turn into a case constructed of legible words.
How can you say there's no value in it, when Llama was on par with Lorab as the top lynch candidate, without Rico in the equation?

Now you have torn your shirt open :super: and gone to super-civ mode with your very helpful breakdown of zebra's interactions... after you have been accused. That looks like scrambling to me.
JJJ wrote:Now we know that's because she was responsible. There's no value in trying to frame somebody if it can't actually turn into a case constructed of legible words.
This isn't the only time he has defended against my theory with the notion that being unable to clearly communicate for one phase makes the framing plan valueless. That makes no sense, and here's why I say that: First, JJJ quite capably made the case in Smiley talk that he thought Llama cursed him and wished to lynch him for it. Second, JJJ gets to talk after the curse is over, and so would have plenty of time to make the case later on, so "can't actually turn into a case constructed of legible words" is not realistic. Zebra's unexpected death and reveal changed the plan irrevocably, does anyone believe that Jimmy would not have continued hunting for Llama's blood based on the idea Llama cursed him?

Here's another thing, read this one and then consider:
Spoiler: show
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Long Con wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I did not suggest llama definitely cursed me or imply I was convinced of that. I said something completely different from that. I literally said "I don't know". The difference is not at all negligible.
But what you said was this:
I don't know whether llama did that. Maybe llama has team mates.
Unless I'm reading it differently than you intended it, that's saying "I don't know if Llama did this or if one of his teammates did it".

The difference is negligible, because they both mean "Llama is a baddie on the cursing team".
You are. The word "maybe" should not be glossed over. It implies two realities: one in which llama has team mates and one in which he does not. If he does not have team mates, he isn't bad (this is me speaking within the perspective that "town" isn't a "team" in the same manner as a mafia team). I was clearly suspicious of llama and I said so both in text and in emojis. I thought there was a decent enough likelihood that either he cursed me or a mafia team mate of his cursed me.

I was not certain that's what happened. I'm not certain of anything at all.
Here's the actual quote by Jimmy. Does it read like he's proposing two different possibilities? One, where Llama is bad, and the other, where Llama is Civ?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Cool well as long as llama willfully ignores me I'm gonna go ahead and continue trying to guide him to the guillotine.
Could you clarify why you thought/think that he cursed you?
I don't know whether llama did that. Maybe llama has team mates.

I was a threat to nobody on Night 0, being so vocally detached and lazy as I was. I made exactly one case against someone that was remotely substantive, that being llama. Llama addressed some posts in the general vicinity of that case, but never responded to anything I said. At any point. The next day I was posting in emoticons. Maybe there's a connection. Even if not, his ignorance of me is clearly deliberate at this point and I don't think town llama has any reason to ignore me. I've done nothing to insult him in any prior game, and I have not been a significant part of this game's torrent pace -- so I haven't annoyed him either. All I've done is cast suspicion upon him, both in the form of Night 0 text and Day 1 emojis.

He hasn't given me the time of day. I think he should become dead as soon as possible.
That line in pink is what he claims meant "It implies two realities: one in which llama has team mates and one in which he does not. If he does not have team mates, he isn't bad". The claims are quite obviously false when you read the post. Note who is asking him as well.

Another vaguer ping: After he got accused of this, he began an impressive, 'really-Civvish' ISO of Zebra. It was very helpful, and I believe several people thanked him for it. It's just the kind of thing that's easy to look at and say "this is good, solid contribution, very helpful to the Civs." What I see is one trick in the bag of tricks that an experienced player like JJJ knows will buy some cred.

I think that's pretty much it. Maybe a few gut feelings to shore it up. That's my JJJ case.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Referring to this:

timmer has died. He was Michael Bay, a civilian.

Michael Bay - Film Directors
A hack director known for explosions and getting his way. Every time two baddies are lynched consecutively, Bay may force the game into the Position of his choice. If he is lynched, there will be two Nights in a row. If he is killed at Night, there will be two lynches in a row.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

I'll get my JJJ case together, just got back and wanted to say two things:

1. I think Fuzz very likely got killed for being Everyone's Favourite Trusted Civ. Maybe next time, tone down that talk, because it does paint a target. Do baddies need to paint targets on people like that?

2. Do we get two lynches in a row?
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:
Long Con wrote:Metalmarsh has voted for JaggedJimmyJay without posting, so maybe he's silenced.

That's also a lynch I would be happy to support.

To clarify, you'd support a MM lynch or a JJJ lynch?
JJJ please!
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

MacDougall wrote:
Golden wrote:Three civilians in a night?

:( that is not good.

I wonder if Ghost Illyria is responsible for the death of DF.

And, Bea :hug: :hug: :hug: :hug: :hug: :hug: welcome!
I reckon that's a pretty good assumption tbh. The way the kills came out it looked like the main kill was Zebra and then Faraday was like an afterthought or something.
That is my assumption as well.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

MacDougall wrote:3 kills on night 2 is weird. Surely the scum don't have 3 kills on a single night? :ponder: The flavour makes it sound like one role was responsible for all three kills. What kind of role would be able to kill three people in a single night this early in the game? I've played with the demo man role before but that wouldn't have been able to kill that many people yet.

I wonder if those three players all did something to trigger their demise. I will take a look.
I think that there were probably three different killers, and each of them were given a Shadowsock to send as an Anonymity Assassin.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Metalmarsh has voted for JaggedJimmyJay without posting, so maybe he's silenced.

That's also a lynch I would be happy to support.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:23 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

*votes Boomslang*

Boomslang was the first vote I cast in the game, as I recall, because he made me suspicious back then:
Spoiler: show
Long Con wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Boomslang wrote:Tranq's slip of calling Finn McMissile mafia (the role was part of a second civ team) is too easily fact-checkable to be intentional, imo.
It wasn't a slip. It was Tranq being a nub. Hence my opening post.
What I'm seeing here is, on the surface, a possible Boomslang-Tranq baddie teamup. That's just surface though, and I don't really think that's what's going on here.

However, my ideal civ-mindset would hold back and wait to see if anyone jumps on Tranq opportunistically, rather than defuse the situation with some textbook "let's not get too finger-pointy" sanity. Short-term "obvious Civ" statements can be long-term "don't worry about me, I'm cooler than being cool" baddie groundwork.
And recently his sig vote twanged me in the twingiest of ways. So, Day 3 starts with a vote on him, foremost of my suspicions.

Never thought too much about it before, but Boomslang is a pretty kick ass handle.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:13 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

HamburgerBoy wrote:I just searched and this is the only thread I can find about shadowsocks. I just want to make sure this isn't some kind of exotic role from a previous game or an in-joke or something because I feel like I'm missing something with "I don't know if the mods would use a shadowsock to modkill someone."
You've never heard of shadowsocks? Vile creatures, abhorrent to Civilian and Mafia alike to be in their presence. Dark magics were wrought the day they came into existence! :feb:
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:53 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Argh, never mind. DF was Barry Allen. For some reason I thought we didn't get his role when he died.

Image
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:49 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Maybe Fuzz killed DFaraday then? Maybe DFaraday was a killer role, and Fuzz used that kill last night on bcornett or Timmer?

And, Hamburg, I wasn't saying Fuzz was anti-town - his role kind of says the opposite of that, and I tend to believe it. I was just saying that maybe he thought Timmer or bcornett were baddies, so took them out.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:47 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

HamburgerBoy wrote:
Long Con wrote:So Radicalfuzz was the killer of bcornett or Timmer, I assume.
Based on what? I don't understand any of this shadowsock business, but I see no reason to believe Fuzz was anti-town.
Based on this:

RadicalFuzz has died. He was Ghost Illyria, a civilian.
Ghost Illyria - Last Woman Standing
Kills on odd nights, and uses the power of her victims on even Nights. Can choose at any time to give up her kill and permanently gain the power of her victim.


Except I see now that it's an even night, so it wasn't Ghost Illyria after all. My mistake. So yeah... this game is full of death. As you were.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Also, more references to Positions. Do YOU have Positions in your role?

Probably best to not answer that. :srsnod:
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Also, welcome bea!
HamburgerBoy wrote:Wait, were these modkills? I'm confused.
Baddie kill, Ghost Illyria kill... and some sort of Indy kill? I don't know if the mods would use a shadowsock to modkill someone.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 3.0 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

Oh my! RIP all three of you... three-for-three Civvie killcount last night, that sucks. So Radicalfuzz was the killer of bcornett or Timmer, I assume.

Those shadowsocks were very evil, but I also appreciated the finer points of their personalities. Once unleashed, can the shadowsocks ever truly be contained?
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

thellama73 wrote:
Long Con wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Something that's interesting is that you and Lorab had the same number of votes day 1 Llama.

Would what you said about her also apply to you?
Obviously not because I know I am, civ.
A comma would have help this statement go from suspicious lie-detector tricking to a more reasonable read.
Better?
What makes you think Wilgy is Civ?
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

thellama73 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I don't really have an opinion on Lorab at this point. I haven't found the case on her compelling. But I have noticed that sometimes when a person keeps getting almost-lynched and avoiding it, they turn out to be bad.
Sometimes < half the time ==> more often then not, players that almost get lynched multiple times in one game turn out to be civilian.
That's fair. I confess that I have no statistics to back up my observation.
Ok, well that pings me a bit.
thellama73 wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Something that's interesting is that you and Lorab had the same number of votes day 1 Llama.

Would what you said about her also apply to you?
Obviously not because I know I am civ.
A comma would have help this statement go from suspicious lie-detector tricking to a more reasonable read.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:24 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Boomslang wrote:
Long Con wrote:RIP sig! RIP Gladius Mechaspark - great role to choose form my game, hosts, it's a fun one!
Boomslang wrote:I'm running low on time before class, and I don't think I'll be able to vote after that. Quite disappointed in Drac's lack of posting today. I think the JJJ case is overblown; his effort with the smiley curse alone, when as a baddie he could have safely played it cool, makes me lean civ on him. Lorab's defense seems genuine, while sig is much more flippant. I don't like the games he played with smileys in a recent post, in particular; it's self-conscious, not natural. I'll put my vote *on sig* unless I find time on a class break to read more and change my mind.

Linki w/Golden: Good illustration of the difference between civ read/buddying. Worth keeping in mind, imo.
Well, Boomslang gets back up my baddie list for this bandwagon-hop.
Just want to put this out there:
Boomslang (15), motel room (19), JaggedJimmyJay (20), nijuukyugou (21), juliets (22), Spacedaisy (25), Tranq (27)

If you want to look at late-joining cars on the lynch train, you might want to look a little farther down the line.
Thanks, Boom my man! If I decide to start focusing on late-joiners to the sig train, then I will be sure to reference this helpful list.
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:02 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Also, Zombies! :D
by Long Con
Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:01 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

RIP sig! RIP Gladius Mechaspark - great role to choose form my game, hosts, it's a fun one!
Boomslang wrote:I'm running low on time before class, and I don't think I'll be able to vote after that. Quite disappointed in Drac's lack of posting today. I think the JJJ case is overblown; his effort with the smiley curse alone, when as a baddie he could have safely played it cool, makes me lean civ on him. Lorab's defense seems genuine, while sig is much more flippant. I don't like the games he played with smileys in a recent post, in particular; it's self-conscious, not natural. I'll put my vote *on sig* unless I find time on a class break to read more and change my mind.

Linki w/Golden: Good illustration of the difference between civ read/buddying. Worth keeping in mind, imo.
Well, Boomslang gets back up my baddie list for this bandwagon-hop.
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I did not suggest llama definitely cursed me or imply I was convinced of that. I said something completely different from that. I literally said "I don't know". The difference is not at all negligible.
But what you said was this:
I don't know whether llama did that. Maybe llama has team mates.
Unless I'm reading it differently than you intended it, that's saying "I don't know if Llama did this or if one of his teammates did it".

The difference is negligible, because they both mean "Llama is a baddie on the cursing team".
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:
Long Con wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:
sig wrote:So zebra was mafia, that most likely means JJJ wasn't on her team. I did see the idea that she picked him, but this makes little sense for day 1. I think it is worth looking into the players who after Rico flipped made comments, like saying how they hope he isn't as spammy or it would be better to have lynched a baddie. I find the first group to almost be trying to weaken Rico's credit thus giving him less of an opinion and basically neutering him, and the second group to just be scummy.

I think a few mafia members were on the Rico wagon, however I also think there is a good chance that either LoRab or Llama are scum.

I don't have many civ or scum reads right know, but I do think Long Con is a civilian, and I'm leaning scum on Llama. Know here is my question do you think the early snipping that Llama and Zebra did was fabricated? It was only a little bit, but I'm curious what people think of it.

I think with Zebra's lynch it also makes it less likely that Mac is on her team.

One last thing, if Roger Rabbit was a civ role last game wouldn't it be odd for it to be a scum role this game? Could this be some sort of seemer/prankster thing? Remember Night 0 scum was able to do actions in theory they could have targeted Zebra and then killed her today. This could be a seemer role where it replaces the scum who used it, just switched the alignment, or let the seemer pick a role.
I think the chances of this are low, but then again the chances of hitting a mafia night 1 is also small.
One thing I'm always wary of is Mafia buddying up to Civs, so this is one thing that I have to say toward the relatively popular idea that sig is bad. Why do you think I'm Civ, sig?
See guys this is how you use colors.
*** High Five Bro! ***
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:
sig wrote:So zebra was mafia, that most likely means JJJ wasn't on her team. I did see the idea that she picked him, but this makes little sense for day 1. I think it is worth looking into the players who after Rico flipped made comments, like saying how they hope he isn't as spammy or it would be better to have lynched a baddie. I find the first group to almost be trying to weaken Rico's credit thus giving him less of an opinion and basically neutering him, and the second group to just be scummy.

I think a few mafia members were on the Rico wagon, however I also think there is a good chance that either LoRab or Llama are scum.

I don't have many civ or scum reads right know, but I do think Long Con is a civilian, and I'm leaning scum on Llama. Know here is my question do you think the early snipping that Llama and Zebra did was fabricated? It was only a little bit, but I'm curious what people think of it.

I think with Zebra's lynch it also makes it less likely that Mac is on her team.

One last thing, if Roger Rabbit was a civ role last game wouldn't it be odd for it to be a scum role this game? Could this be some sort of seemer/prankster thing? Remember Night 0 scum was able to do actions in theory they could have targeted Zebra and then killed her today. This could be a seemer role where it replaces the scum who used it, just switched the alignment, or let the seemer pick a role.
I think the chances of this are low, but then again the chances of hitting a mafia night 1 is also small.
One thing I'm always wary of is Mafia buddying up to Civs, so this is one thing that I have to say toward the relatively popular idea that sig is bad. Why do you think I'm Civ, sig?
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Turnip Head wrote:I wanted to clarify something. All win conditions in this game (excepting any potential independent roles, if there are any) are team victories. You win if your team wins. That is all.
What a relief!
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:06 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Golden wrote:But I find LC's approach to the case shady as well. He is making a lot of very firm statements that, in my opinion, push the theory further than it can realistically go without a lot of evidence.
What more evidence can come up to support the theory that JJJ and zebra were scheming to frame llama? She's dead, and he's on high alert right now (if he's a baddie) regarding the whole subject. I think the llama-accusation was a fake thing, and that's how I talked about it. I have never implied that I have info or anything, so how firm are my statements, really? I think it's very realistic, it's a plan that I would completely support if I were the baddie in that situation.

Also, to address the "in a Champions Game" thing. I think, in a Champions Game, baddies would want to elevate their level of play. They get a curse role, and they'd say "all right, how can we REALLY USE this to get an advantage?" Maybe some of you play every game like Champions. I don't think that scrutinizing that opinion is very useful, but that's why I said it.

I'd better get to bed though, BR is all like "are you still playing MAFIA?!!"

Just kidding, she hasn't said anything. But she is in bed, and I'm going now too.
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:55 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Hello Wilgy my friend! :noble: :noble: Here's my analysis of your sig analysis.
So... First eye catch! the post that mentions Zebra from Sig happens to have way more smileys than what I'm used to from Sig. I know he splashes maybe one smiley into a post here and there, but this just feels unnatural to Sig. His reactions to Zebra seems non-committal, kinda there just to be there. I find it odd that his concern was raised, but he doesn't remember those concerns.
The Smiley thing isn't something I really connect with. Is sig THAT much of a non-Smiler that it's weird to use four in a medium-length post? My thing about this *infamous* post of his is that it's a Day 0 post. People are expecting the world of it, and condemning it for being too "fluff". Personally, I have probably done plenty of posts like this as a Civ, because I don't always have a lot to say that early. Some of these guys are just right-out-of-the-gates guys, but I have no right to accuse someone for just getting a post in there to be present.
Sig brushes off DH, stating that it is fluff but fluff is OK. Is this a NO U?
Yes it was a NO U. It's interesting that at this point in the game (Day 1), all we had from Sig were two "I'll be suspicions of you if you are suspicious of me" conversation kill tactics, Zebra hunky pokeyness, and awkward fluff.
I can't condemn him for the soft No U because I also agreed that attacking him for that post was weak and possibly baddie-predatory. It's not a No U if the suspicion of your attackers motives is justified.
This is a lie, Sig wouldn't have asked about JJJ in the non contributory post if this were true.
This is harsh. Accuse the guy of a fluff post until he says "yeah, it was fluffy"... and then turn it around to say "A-HA! But WHAT about this NON-FLUFF that I see???!" To call sig a liar for having a sliver of real-talk in the Penultimate Fluff Post is not very valid. It's not like sig was the one singling out his own post and making sure everyone knew it was 100% fluff, right?
Where does the LoRab suspicion come from?
This is a valid question. If sig is jumping on the Lorab wagon without his own reasons, then it's worth looking into. I do think that the Lorab suspicion was talked out by several people, and I must admit, she's on the baddie end of my hypothetical rainbow list because I read those opinions on her and agreed with some of them. I never delved into it and made my own case on her, but I still held suspicion based on what I read.
Sig's insentience on seemers being in play seems silly. What would pondering this do? I need to check how often Sig states "What do you think of X?" as a civ...
I don't see "insistence" in sig's post about a possibility that Z was a seemer, or that some trickery was involved. I do think it would be relevant to check out his history of "What do you think of X?" though, that's a good idea.

Anyways, this turned into a big "sig defense" post. I guess if he turns up bad then I'll look bad. And if he turns up Civ then maybe I'll look like a baddie who knew it was likely he was Civ so that's suspish. It's easy enough to come to either of those conclusions, but hey, I say things I think of to say. Wilgy, I know you put the time into that sig ISO, and I just wanted to get my opinion out there as well. I don't think sig is bad. :shrug: I'm usually pretty crappy at this though, so we shall see! :haha:
by Long Con
Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:48 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

juliets wrote:
Matt wrote:Boomslang, I find it unlikely that there are two curse roles in a game where there were up to 60 roles (and I'm assuming, role powers) originally but was cut to 30. No doubt our hosts have all kinds of cool shit planned for this game, so why would they keep two roles, one that curses in smilies and the other that curses in questions? Overkill for a champions game, I think.

As for positions, I dunno. I didn't play Recruitment and my role has nothing to do with positions, but I suppose it's possible given Zebra's flip.

Why are so many against looking at Draconus? :ponder:

juliets, were you faking your confusion earlier or was it legit?
I was confused about whether Keterman was male or female. You said male. I believe JJJ said female. Or maybe I misunderstood what one of you said but I don't think so. I understood from before this game started that zebra identified as female. This was the first I'd heard that Keterman and zebra were the same person. I still don't know for sure how Keterman identified - I thought it was as male. I'm still confused but not about zebra, about Keterman.
I love you, juliets. Your confusion is tickling me immensely.
by Long Con
Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:11 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

I doubt that Draconus faked a curse. It doesn't give him any particular cred to do so. Maybe if we see no more curses then it could be something to look into, but even then, it's weird.

If there ARE Positions for multiple roles, and two different roles have the ability to curse on one of the Positions... I doubt that the hosts would make it on the SAME Position. So I don't think that's a likely idea.
by Long Con
Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

I suspected Llama for seeming to prey a little on minutiae that I consider easy targets, like sig's use of the word "interesting" in a Day 0 post that was "too much fluff", more or less. I did explain in slightly greater detail at the time.
by Long Con
Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

JJJ, like HamburgerBoy already pointed out, despite the fact that you couldn't talk, you managed to easily convey that you believed Llama cursed you, and why you believed he cursed you. Saying "I couldn't bloody talk" is disingenuous.

The fact that Zebra didn't agree with you and pursue Llama as a suspect makes complete sense as a baddie teammate. If Llama is going to flip Civ, then it looks good on her that she wasn't after him with you.
Now we know that's because she was responsible. There's no value in trying to frame somebody if it can't actually turn into a case constructed of legible words.
How can you say there's no value in it, when Llama was on par with Lorab as the top lynch candidate, without Rico in the equation?

Now you have torn your shirt open :super: and gone to super-civ mode with your very helpful breakdown of zebra's interactions... after you have been accused. That looks like scrambling to me.
by Long Con
Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Epignosis wrote:
Long Con wrote:I didn't remember TH's avatar for the Spider Monkey thing. These avatar-changing types are hard to keep up with sometimes. You won't catch me doing that. :noble:
What will we catch you doing? :dark: :eye:
Image
by Long Con
Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:17 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

I didn't remember TH's avatar for the Spider Monkey thing. These avatar-changing types are hard to keep up with sometimes. You won't catch me doing that. :noble:
by Long Con
Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:05 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 2~ 2015 Game of Champions

Epignosis wrote:I won't be voting for 3J today.
That's interesting, I assume you guys are currently discussing some sort of sporting event? Cincy? What is that, Cincinnati? I dunno. Is that why?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Burger is no longer Superman. The notion that I am on Zebra's team is beyond tinfoil. It's crackpot.
I think you are on zebra's team.

I think, especially in a Champions Game, a baddie curser role on the first night would not target someone who they want to silence. I believe they would try to pull a frame-up job. I believe that zebra targeted her teammate JJJ with the curse, because they saw an opportunity to frame Llama. JJJ was very sure that Llama was the one that cursed him. Has he even considered that it might be an attempt to frame Llama?

*votes JaggedJimmyJay*

In other thoughts, I think it is more unlikely than likely that there is a Lie Detector role in this game. I think that these roles are rare, and that many find them unsavoury. I like them personally, albeit with some sort of limitation to make it not so easy to just alignment-check on player per round. My opinion is that there is no Lie Detector in this game.
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Long Con wrote:Brown Spider Monkey - ?
Cattle - ?
Plains Zebra - a2thezebra
Yellow-bellied Marmot - Metalmarsh
Brown Bear - S~V~S?
I searched the Syndicate for "spider monkey", and this came up.
Wow. I'm glad I died before that was part of the game.

So Spider Monkey and Brown Bear are the two options I would choose.
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Cattle = Domestic Cow = Hamburgerboy?
Sounds right. Who is Spider Monkey then?
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Brown Spider Monkey - ?
Cattle - ?
Plains Zebra - a2thezebra
Yellow-bellied Marmot - Metalmarsh
Brown Bear - S~V~S?
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

DharmaHelper wrote:
Long Con wrote:Also, I agree that it is not unlikely that the Trickster is involved in the Night Polls. Unfortunately, if it's similar to A World Reborn, there's not really much we can do about it. First, there's a really wide variety of possible poll outcomes... could be some good some bad, or there could be one bad one and the rest are neutral, or something else, something we've never seen before.

Do each of the options correspond to a player?

Brown Spider Monkey - ?
Cattle - ?
Plains Zebra - a2thezebra
Yellow-bellied Marmot - Metalmarsh
Polar Bear - ?
Brown Bear. Shameful.
Sorry, I copy-pasted from the mistake post. :blush: Truly shameful.
thellama73 wrote:Because he's dead? He died. He is no more. He is an ex-Rico. He's pushing up the daisies. He's shuffled off the mortal coil and gone to join the choir invisible.
Important questions: does Rico still win if the Civs win? Does Rico's existence still count in the number of Civs and baddies when endgame arrives?
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Also, I agree that it is not unlikely that the Trickster is involved in the Night Polls. Unfortunately, if it's similar to A World Reborn, there's not really much we can do about it. First, there's a really wide variety of possible poll outcomes... could be some good some bad, or there could be one bad one and the rest are neutral, or something else, something we've never seen before.

Do each of the options correspond to a player?

Brown Spider Monkey - ?
Cattle - ?
Plains Zebra - a2thezebra
Yellow-bellied Marmot - Metalmarsh
Polar Bear - ?
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Hmmm, make that "Monkey".
by Long Con
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Night 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Great job Rico. This is the best possible result for the Day 1 lynch. Congrats on becoming a Force Ghost!

The Spider Money option appeals to me.
by Long Con
Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:41 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

I am going to work now, changing my vote from Boomslang to Llama, for a more relevant opinion. I'm totally cool with Blue Eye being lynched though. He just scares me so I'm staying away.
by Long Con
Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Ricochet wrote:You do you.
RIP Rico.
by Long Con
Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions
Replies: 8411
Views: 177701

Re: Day 1~ 2015 Game of Champions

Ricochet wrote:
Dom wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Lots of serious talk over the night I don't know what to make of. Fuzz's thoughts are written in a complicated manner and Golden did nothing but hit the ball back at him the same way. Hmm. And then you let Baddie Con take it into OT zone. M'kay.
Elohcin wrote:This game is moving way too fast for me.
It'll be over soon, it seems.
Turnip Head wrote:This is not the 2015 Game of Nerds :suspish:

But I love nerds, and this thread is already unreadable as is, and I'm drunk, so carry on :beer:
It'll be over soon, it see- oh wait, you're not a player. :scared:

It's becoming clear the game will virtually start on Night 1, the way the past 19 pages aren't about my spot on baddie catching anymore, but a skip button for players to appeal to. Let it be known, post-mislynch, how easy it was for Dom and Timmer, for instance, to play this card. :pout:
Nice attempt, but nah.
Nah U.

Didn't you say you were off for the Day? Classic baddie coming back to check if his civvictim is still bleeding.
Like when you went to bed last night?

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