The Syndicate

I don't have the Beatdown. For all I know, you have it TH, you're the one so broke you had to mortgage, right? I'm going after Water Works, and I'm going after Railroads, because they're baddies. It's not speculation, like "LC is a red" (no, I'm not), it's a fact. An accompanying fact is that every time they kill, they get a great deal more powerful by lining up properties.

It is no surprise that I'm on top of your list, TH, considering I've been completely hounding you all game. It's truly nothing personal, and if Metalmarsh is right and you're a pink, then I've been very wrong and wasted my time and more in coming after you. How airtight is MM's case on you being a pink? I need to look over it again.

Again, I don't have the Beatdown. And it's funny that you'd mention how I have backed off bidding lately, because I've been intending to bid at the end of the night/day for certain things, and a couple of times forgetfulness has cost me so much. $1 for Indiana with a hotel?? Seriously, I looked at the clock four minutes after bidding closed, and swore. I would have gladly taken that juicy red moneymaker.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

Long Con wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:You really don't like me this game, do you Con?

I'm not lying about anything, I don't know why you keep insisting that I am.

I'm not insisting that you are, I'm just trying to get to the truth. I think the most likely explanation is that you're telling the truth, but I'm not seeing the evidence. That's why I'm asking for other opinions on the matter, including yours.

So you're saying you have enough extra properties to mortgage them (at half price?) to reach $1100, without selling houses or hotels? I'm not trying to bust your balls here, but give me some credit and work with me - if you're telling the truth, then there should be an easy explanation that I'm not seeing.

Even if you had a hand full of Boardwalks, you would need to Mortgage forty-four of them to reach $1100 at $25 apiece. Isn't that how it works?

When you mortgage a property you get half of what it cost to buy that property. For example board walks cost $400. So if you mortgage that you get $200 from it.

Oh that's right... I was confusing what you PAY when you land on it for the price of the property. My bad.

So it would just take five or six Boardwalks to survive the $1100 cost. More properties needed when you start considering that there's only one Boardwalk, you know?

He could have had any amount of money to start though. Maybe he had $800 and just had to Mortgage a little bit. I'm not even pushing for his lynch today, I'm willing to believe the DFaraday roleblocking story... and I predict that it will be a DFaraday landslide today.

Linki: Yes, that is what I believe, MP.

Turnip Head wrote:You really don't like me this game, do you Con?

I'm not lying about anything, I don't know why you keep insisting that I am.

I'm not insisting that you are, I'm just trying to get to the truth. I think the most likely explanation is that you're telling the truth, but I'm not seeing the evidence. That's why I'm asking for other opinions on the matter, including yours.

So you're saying you have enough extra properties to mortgage them (at half price?) to reach $1100, without selling houses or hotels? I'm not trying to bust your balls here, but give me some credit and work with me - if you're telling the truth, then there should be an easy explanation that I'm not seeing.

Even if you had a hand full of Boardwalks, you would need to Mortgage forty-four of them to reach $1100 at $25 apiece. Isn't that how it works?

At the very least, this would possibly indicate that TH is lying about selling things.

Ok, so here's the first page:

Houses x 4: Start at $150 each, do not have to used right away if won.
House x 10: $100

Houses and Hotels (bought based off the cost on the normal games card, use the wiki to find the cost):
*Can only be bought for immediate use*
Houses: 0
Hotels (Must have 4 houses before upgrading): 6

Metalmarsh, you did some detective work involving TH, the houses, and the 'Pinks' (I prefer to call them Magenta)... can you take a look at the current stats and let us know what you think? I would think that TH (and his team) would have had to sell Hotels to make it work, at least downgrading to one or two houses on each. I thought there were 6 hotels available before this night was over.

Shouldn't we be seeing some changes there? You have to sell off houses and hotels before mortgaging, so they should be showing up as available.

Kind of him. We must remember to send him a Christmas card.

Well, my original thoughts to think were centred around you lying about the mortgaging, because I thought thoughts regarding the mortgaged property showing up for purchase.

Now I'm thinking I was misremembering the rules, and I'm probably wrong, but some clarification would be best either way. Did boo let you know when your death was imminent that you can do that? Or was it your idea?

Also, it seems TH is not a Red. Although now he IS a red, given that he has Illinois with a hotel. What a complicated world!

Some thoughts.

I could be wrong, maybe in the board game you mortgage properties but still own them, just don't collect rent while they're mortgaged... and then you can subsequently sell to the bank and open it up to buyers. I'm just not sure, let's just wait for boo to clarify before thinking any thoughts.

Turnip Head wrote:I had to mortgage some real estate to pay off my debts.

So, where is it? In Monopoly board game, when you mortgage a property, other players can buy it, right? Boo, can you tell us about property mortgage in this game please?

Turnip Head, just rolling in the dough, huh?

MM, I would understand if you said knowing a Railroad is why you were targeted... but it doesn't explain why you survived. One explanation is you being Water Works I think, another is that a Protect was used on you... wait, did you buy the Roleblock?

Turnip Head wrote:Juliets, I had to use my extra +5 votes that I won because you jerks voted for me but thank you for the non apology haha.

Which +5 votes did you win?

Sig bets are lame!

I have never been or owned a red. My game should speak for itself on that front.

I'll go with TH because he's my guy

S~V~S did not post for all of Night 4.

Her last post before, was from Day 4:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 360#p98891

And she did not post again until Day 5:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 480#p99050

S~V~S wrote:I had a busy weekend~ but kept up reading. I intend to reread both TH & Boogs a bit harder.

I had thought 2 as well, Tennessee and New York I presume... but the poll title is "Make it 12", and the Deads option is "13 - 1"

I take that to mean 13 LMS to 1 Civvie, and the Civvie-sympathetic poll is hoping we take out an LMS person. And no, I wasn't implying that I'm not Civvie, not at all.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Long Con wrote:I still say TH is Water Works.

Would you take a look at the reasons I stated for TH being a pink, and tell me why you think that is not true?

Skimmed it before, I see now that your argument does make sense. I'm interested to see how TH responds to that.

I still say TH is Water Works.

Also, after doing some Board analysis, and just now noticing the poll info... there is one solitary Civilian left in the game.

As if I needed another reason to vote TH.

juliets wrote:oh I see, that was Tuesday before last. I'm looking for the one on the 25th (I think thats the date of this last Tuesday).

I think I missed that one, busy week. Sorrryyyyyy!

Who would you have voted for, bea?

I think I have it in Photoshop still... I'll get it when I'm home , remind me if I don't.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Long Con wrote:Llama displayed a pattern of behaviour for you that made sense for you being Water Works. You want individual points because any individual point is exactly NOT a pattern. It's not about points, it's about building up a whole, it's a holistic view of Turnip Head.

I'm honoured that you think that my opinion alone is going to get you lynched. A trifle overdefensive, given that what I have seen is more people sympathize with you than accuse you. I hope I'm wrong.

The main reason I don't like your vote on me LC is that some inactive players will come in, see me in the lead, and put a vote there for that reason.

Curious post you quoted... instead of the post where I admit that I mistakenly thought you hadn't made money on the Green, you quoted one about, and to, Turnip Head.

No matter, your point is well taken. With a lynch this inactive, what you're describing is possible. Nothing I can do about other people voting if they don't read the thread, unfortunately.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Yea I think TH made a good point about Long Con saying that LLama's points are important factors but hasn't really said what points stick out to him. Also did we figure out who all could be water works based on who was here when they killed and who was away when they missed the kill.

Not really a good point, since I already debunked it, but that's ok. I know most of the players in this game won't really care who's lynched since they're LMS, so it's easiest to just come on and agree with whatever without adding much of their own input.

Turnip Head wrote:Long COn, you are the one who said this:

Long Con wrote:I think Llama's points about you are an important factor as well.

I asked you to point out which points were an important factor.

And instead of answering my question you just quoted his entire case.

You can't point to any individual point that just makes sense. You're just citing it because it exists.

Llama displayed a pattern of behaviour for you that made sense for you being Water Works. You want individual points because any individual point is exactly NOT a pattern. It's not about points, it's about building up a whole, it's a holistic view of Turnip Head.

I'm honoured that you think that my opinion alone is going to get you lynched. A trifle overdefensive, given that what I have seen is more people sympathize with you than accuse you. I hope I'm wrong.

Turnip Head wrote:So you just quote his case post and offer no analysis. I refuted that case multiple times, Llama never responded to any the counter points I made to it and neither have you. You ignore all my posts refuting the cases against me. You keep regurgitating the same old case that doesn't make sense, and the fact that it exists is apparently enough.

I call bull. You are voting for me because you are being opportunistic. I'm not on your LMS team, so you're hoping I get lynched.

I call bull on your "what part of Llama's case do you agree with?" crap. I saw you ask someone that before, and I think it's a way for you to try and pare down a case to certain points that you can individually refute. Well guess what, being able to offer a perfectly Civvie explanation for each little point of a case doesn't make you a Civvie. It's called looking at a pattern of behaviour. I don't really care that you can offer *an* explanation for each little piece of the analysis individually. It doesn't mean I have to believe everything you say about how things possibly could have been going on with the way you play.

I don't understand "opportunistic". Why would I want you out over someone else if I were on an LMS team, you'd be the same level of "ya gots ta go" as everyone else in this game. I am voting you because I strongly believe you are Water Works.

Turnip Head wrote:Which points specifically from llama's case do you agree with, Long Con?

This quote works well for me:

thellama73 wrote:The case on Boogs is good.

I think Turnip head is bad, though.

BWT flips bad, I suggest looking at the people who voted for him late in the day.

thellama73 wrote:Now, who is BWT's partner? I would guess someone who voted for him after his lynch became inevitable, after Spacedaisy at least. Maybe Turnip Head of Splintsy-Splints.

Turnip Head singles out Daisy, even though the timing of her vote makes no sense for a teammate. ALso helps that she is not around to defend herself.

Turnip Head wrote:I still feel that this is the sketchiest vote all day, and BWT flipping utility makes it even sketchier to me:

Spacedaisy wrote:I give up. I don't have time to catch up. I honestly don't even know the mechanics of this game. I'm going to roll with a BWT vote.

She hadn't even read the thread. Still managed to vote for BWT.

When I point out this makes no sense, he claims that BWT's lynch was inevitable when he only had four votes. Really?

Turnip Head wrote:I don't think there was a big chance to save BWT yesterday... I felt his lynch was inevitable, like FZ's. Maybe if Metalmarsh had garnered more votes it would have been closer. But it was LC who had the most non-BWT votes, and there was a lot of hesitation to lynch him yesterday.

Whether she's civvie or baddie, Daisy's vote stands out, and needs to be explained.

He pushes this idea for a few posts, when nobody bites, he changes the subject.

Turnip Head wrote:We would need to cross reference all of BWT's suspicions with the players that we know landed on a Utility square (and got rolechecked)

He then pleads a frame-up.

Turnip Head wrote:Looking back at BWT's posts, it seems he killed Black Rock in an attempt to set me up

Other than that he didn't mention suspicion of many players outside of Boogs and Llama, neither of which have been checked by the uties.

Then Epig makes an admittedly elegant case on Boogs. TH immediately agrees.

Turnip Head wrote:I can dig it Epi. Boogs can have his turn in the hot seat. The interaction between him and BWT is weird.

I call him out on changing the subject, as a late BWT voter. He responds.

Turnip Head wrote:I've been a late voter every lynch, and expect the trend to continue.

I was the first person to agree with Epi's original case on BWT, so there's that.

$10 Electric Company

This rather misses the point. It is not the fact that he voted late, but that he voted late for BWT specifically, that is consistent with what a teammate would do.

He bid on Electric Company, although he screwed it up, and his vote gave him a $200 boost. Water Works has the most incentive to bid on Electric Company.

Turnip Head wrote:Well I meant to outbid Boogs on Electric Company but my dumbass didn't increase the bid to $11. So boogs has Electric Company.

Overall, his tone sounds to me like someone who is desperately trying to change the subject to anybody but him. I refuse to let the subject be changed.

Turnip Head wrote:Well I meant to outbid Boogs on Electric Company but my dumbass didn't increase the bid to $11. So boogs has Electric Company.

And there's other posts he made that put together a broad analysis of your behaviour over time that are sensible. It just makes sense to me.

Metalmarsh, I have to admit, I thought Pennsylvania hadn't been landed on because I was going by checking the board images. I see now that Hannah hit you up on her whirlwind tour around the board, and it makes a lot more sense that you could afford the Hotel landing. I can't change my vote, but how about if I say "hey everyone, my reasons for voting Metalmarsh this time were based on erroneous observations!"

Ok, I chose my vote, and it reminds me that someone was asking if I still hold my earlier suspicion of Metalmarsh. I hold it enough to choose him of the five people who have landed on a Red Hotel and survived. S~V~S has a really good reason, what an awesome influx of cash that was for her! Nijuu was second most likely for me to choose.

*votes Turnip Head and Metalmarsh*

Also busy here, but I'll be checking in tonight. Tomorrow is busy from morning to night, so I won't be around much, maybe checking in on my phone if I get a chance.

I do believe in the case on you, Turnip Head. It's more than just the Lorab thing, I think Llama's points about you are an important factor as well. My suspicion of Lorab as a Railroad is pending what you are. You can bet that I will go after her if you turn out bad.

I'm going to have a look now at which of the Red Five will get my other vote.

HannaK wrote:

HannaK wrote:RIP MP

And wow someone really felt like i needed to take 3 turns huh?

So in the Dutch version I always play at home, we never do this, but apparently there is a rule that you get another turn if you roll doubles so you can ignore this post


And yeah I guess following the money is as good a tactic as any at this moment because it results in a high chance you either lynch a powerful member of a LMS group or a baddie, but Long Con, I do not really get your case against TH, it's basically: I know people have reasons not to think he is bad but I keep suspecting him anyway?

Well, if you only take my last post and literally no other posts in the game, then yes, that's the case on TH.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:RIP MP.

It looks like Nijuukyugou has got some serious loot to be able to land on Illinois and Pacific and be able to afford rent on both.

Although you were wrong about the Pacific factor, I'm still very suspicious that five players have now landed on $1000+ hotels and survived. I'm sorry, but if I land on one of those things, my game is over. (I hope I roll an 11 tonight!)

One of my two votes today will be for one of those five people, because one of them is a red or a railroad or just someone with too much money. Too much money! How do you not die when you land on those? Maybe there's a green in there. I don't know.

My other vote today will be going to Turnip Head. I believe he's Water Works despite the arguments against it. Several other people seem to have compelling reasons to think he's a Railroad (unless Keys not being WW debunks that completely, not totally sure on that one). IF my conjecture that MP and zeek were reds (fortified by the fact that zeek, whose role was known to the Utilities, was killed recently by them), then both baddie teams are now in control of a Red Death Hotel. I can't escape the belief that Turnip Head is a baddie, and I'm going to vote for him again.

Turnip Head wrote:As I sit in the Las Vegas airport staring at a row of slot machines while waiting to board my connecting flight to Colorado, I realized this is a good time to mention that I'll be out of town visiting friends and family until Sunday. I'll still try to keep up and post my thoughts but I likely won't be as involved as I'd like to be.

Ok, but we might still lynch you!

Turnip Head wrote:Ohhhhhhhh. So the reds aren't getting the money from those houses. Got it.

Yes, good to know, that makes much more sense.

How can the reds put up their nine houses for sale AND still build hotels?

Don't you exchange the four houses back to the bank when you upgrade them to hotels?

So, if I had a property group with four houses on each, then I could build hotels and then put those houses on another property group (assuming I somehow had two) for FREE?

These questions are for boo.

Turnip Head wrote:Splints: because I'm at work you jerk. You threw these accusations up at the last minute. You'll better believe I'll have things to say if I survive this.

And yes I'm defensive. I'm fucking fighting for my life because I've done nothing but defend LC's case all day and now you just tried to get a different lynch train started on me in the final hours without even doing due diligence .

I feel like plenty of people defended you against my case... I felt like my case was debunked in many peoples' eyes due to the perceived logical fallacy.

$85 on +5 votes

I'm switching my vote to keys.

fingersplints wrote:I don't see what's so strange about it still LC. You had him pegged as a certain baddie role. If you do not think he is that role I am wondering if you see him more as a civvie or different baddie role.

Maybe it was the way you phrased it. Do I think he COULD BE a Railroad or LMS? In other words, do I think it's at all possible that he's part of the majority of the players in the game?

EBWOP: "...could not be Railroad or LMS."

Ok, I'll answer that in a broader way: I think that any person in this game could be a Railroad or an LMS.

Was there any way for me to say 'no' to your question? If I said 'no', then that means that I think he's not Water Works, and that he could not be Railroad of LMS. Which would mean that I definitely think he's an ungrouped Civilian.

That's why I thought the question was really strange.

fingersplints wrote:

Long Con wrote:

fingersplints wrote:Doesn't that mess up your theory about TH being WW

If TH won Electric Company, then I would believe he's not Water Works.

Do you think he could be a railroad? Or lms?

Why are you asking that? Am I supposed to answer in a certain way?

fingersplints wrote:Doesn't that mess up your theory about TH being WW

If TH won Electric Company, then I would believe he's not Water Works.

TH and Lorab. One of you won Electric Company in the bid, and lied about it. I don't know why you would lie about it, because at this point it exonerates you from being Water Works, because we haven't seen the 10x Utility rate for players landing on Utilities. Not to mention it was put up for auction. Boogs didn't have it.

What's the deal there? Someone should 'fess up, you won't get in trouble for lying.

Ok, I found it:

Result: 7 or more players rolled a 7 gives 7 random players (3 guaranteed from being in the pool of people who rolled 7) small random powers.
1 = 1 any time vote
2 = Protect that night
3 = Get a double search
4= Get a roleblock to use following night
5 = Get an extra dice to use following night (on anyone)
6 = Get $100.
7 = Get 2 of the other 6 powers.

So, three of us got $100... it's weird.

S~V~S wrote:

Long Con wrote:

bea wrote:

S~V~S wrote:Wow that was fast, lol.

On night 3 I won $100 for being one of 7 people to roll 7; I presume that the other 6 also won prizes; DP was not one of them iirc. But discussing windfalls might be something we want to think about if we start using hotel survival as a litmus test of big $$.

I won a similar prize on the 7's night. I'm not even joking. IDK what it was or what my cash count is at this moment.


It was prolly 1oo. I'm srrsly that out of it this game. I'm such fail its not even funnyl

Not even joking, I also won $100 from the Seven contest. There were three $100 prizes in the seven, right?

I had the impression that all 7 got something. Neither the word nor the numeral 3 was mentioned, just that I was one of 7 who received a prize. So if there was this prize, do you think it likely there may have been others? I know when it started being questioned in detail about how much money the people who landed on the Reds may have had and how they may have gotten it, I thought of prizes.Having won a secret prize myself and all.

I can't find boo's post telling about the Seven prize. How did it work?

The TH rebuttal... I have to admit that I find myself resisting it.

He had a kill night 2, and chose to kill Black Rock 1.0... and when we looked back on all of BR's posts, the only thing that stood out was that she had spoken up against TH. I would believe that they wouldn't feel a pressing need to waste a 'fail-kill' on Lorab, to get her insta-lynched. This was before Hedgeowl got that treatment, and it's not illogical to think that they might not have gone with that plan on their very first kill. They had Lorab in their back pocket at that point, maybe they wanted to "go for cred" by lynching her.

He was around Night 4, and so he didn't likely MISS the kill. He may have chosen not to kill in order to implicate low posters, or the roleblock may have been used on him. Both do seem unlikely.

By Night 6, he had already accused her in the thread... and killing zeek could have been a power play for gaining a hotel, so no time to waste on fail-killing Lorab.

So there was not, like a super-huge number of opportunities to reveal Lorab as an RR. There, of course, are many factors that go into choosing to purposefully do a fail-kill on someone. In this game, It would mean giving up the opportunity to gain property and power. The choice between lynching her and fail-killing her isn't an easy one to make, but the ideal way to do things, the way that gets the most benefit, is to lynch Lorab on a case they put together armed with the knowledge she's a Railroad, and use the nightkills to gain power.

I can't make a convincing case as to why TH would miss the NK on Night 4, and the case that keys missed it accidentally is much more convincing on that front alone.

bea wrote:

S~V~S wrote:Wow that was fast, lol.

On night 3 I won $100 for being one of 7 people to roll 7; I presume that the other 6 also won prizes; DP was not one of them iirc. But discussing windfalls might be something we want to think about if we start using hotel survival as a litmus test of big $$.

I won a similar prize on the 7's night. I'm not even joking. IDK what it was or what my cash count is at this moment.


It was prolly 1oo. I'm srrsly that out of it this game. I'm such fail its not even funnyl

Not even joking, I also won $100 from the Seven contest. There were three $100 prizes in the seven, right?

keys56000000000 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:I'm just pointing out the facts. It looks like Keys was not around for the missed kill, and returned just before last night's kill.

a) I'm around.

b) I would never miss an opportunity to nightkill one of you motherfuckers.

@MP: how the fuck does my d1 union agenda benefit the rail roads? fucking lol. later.

I would vote for this guy if he were running for President of Mafia.

Also, MetalMarsh, yeah, you got me. Four times in total, though the first two were generously combined into one warning. Then I went to bed, got up the next morning, and went about posting like I was Mr. Normal. I posted twice, then had one of those realizations where you feel yourself go pale and catch your breath, before going back and seeing exactly how many posts I had already made. I lost my vote on the first one, and paid you $50 for the second one.

Well played, sir.

Ok, so here's the new theory of TH being Water Works. I'll acknowledge the "base" theory that Llama put forth, since he was quite adamant about TH being bad, but his ideas didn't gain enough traction, probably because he was a sketchy character himself. And this theory has a bonus aspect, that this Utility has generously given us a Railroad as well.

I'll go with one of the smaller pieces of evidence first, that TH was actually actively campaigning to NOT kill Water Works, based on the fact that Water Works missed their kill on Night 4. He wanted to skip Water Works and go after LMS groups in order to leave the kill in the hands of an inactive player. He wanted us to accept the theory that we would be seeing Water Works miss more kills in the future, making it safer for everyone to leave Water Works alive.

Upon reflection, that's a fool's dream. I don't think it's a remotely plausible thing to believe. But Turnip Head was pretty insistent on it, even going so far as to accuse people who wanted to kill Water Works of anti-Civvie behaviour.

One of TH's main suspicions is Lorab. He is really pushing the idea that she's a Railroad. Lorab landed on Electric Company on Day 1. If TH is Water Works, then he's doing this because he knows that Lorab is a Railroad, and he's now moving to take her out. It makes sense to wait a while after learning her role so early, because she would be looking for a Utility coming after her after landing on it. And in the last lynch, TH vs Llama, you would think that Llama would be the first vote, since this was his case... but Lorab is actually the first vote.

In the 'Mexican Standoff' situation of a Uitility knowing a Railroad, and a Railroad knowing they know... the Railroad would probably act fast to eliminate the Utility once they know who it is.

Zeek, incidentally, also landed on Electric Company and had his role learned. Water Works killed zeek last night. If zeek was a red property, then that's why he was killed. Which means Water Works would have a Death Hotel in possession. If that's true, and we lynch Water Works, then that hotel will be up for grabs, and the reds obviously have enough money to outbid anyone to get their property back. Just stuff to think about.

*votes TH*

Oh, that's right. So that would put him at $0 plus any rent he's made, minus anything he has bid and won, if that has happened.

And if he's clean... then amazingly, three people landed on the Death Hotels and survived. :o