The Syndicate

Yay! Close call, we got lucky! GG Wolves!

Enjoyed playing with you both, gims and KJQ, thank you!

gims wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 12:21 am youre the best, LC

It should be noted that I completely fell for Jack's Town impersonation and attempted to fully sabotage the game, saved from ignominy only by the good fortune of every other player missing the deadline to change votes.

gims wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 12:22 am I want to believe I'd find this tomorrow morning cause its so blatant

I felt a little embarrassed that I came in devoted to the two of you being Town and said as much. Then I kept thinking, fortunately.

gims wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 12:18 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 10, 2025 1:37 pm
Spoiler: show
Okay but this time you be the wolf and I be the indy.

JACK NOTICED IT TOO lmao

I've been waiting for you all day to reveal it. I worked out everything and realized what to look for. LOL my thought process is literally in the thread, starting with voting Roxy.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Apr 10, 2025 1:36 pm Jack I hope this can be a bit like Inception for us. Teamwork makes the dream work.

Aw, he left.

Gims! If you were a Wolf who knew Jack was a Wolf, and that he didn't know who YOU were, what would you do?

Don't go anywhere. I'm out in my workshop now. I'll be back in in 10 minutes and I'll give you a juicy tidbit that you will love.

No prob, you came through when it mattered!

Roxy! Yesss... it is [VOTE: radish] aubergine!

Oh, we'll decide today.

Gims, the premise is wrong. They weren't able to win on the Day falcon was voted out because of Jack's role.

Everything's going to be ok, guys. I cracked the code.

Extra tough to figure out when Roxy disappears and plays poll games instead of posting.

Jack didn't count for parity. The game would not have ended at that point like we assumed for a three-Wolf team.

They would have known Jack was voting falcon, and decided to use that to help give him cred as well. Two wolves both on the falcon train can equal a win.

That Jack role really raises some alarming questions.

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

Also RIP Mac, absolutely bizarre kill choice.

I think there are two options today, me or Roxy. If either of you, gims or Radishes, pulled off that last-second swing to eliminate falcon, then that was a crazy move that, as far as I can tell, threw away an instant win in favour of a more savoury "I fooled everyone" win. Either way, the win is/should be yours. I love crazy plays like that, really. I mean, that one's far TOO crazy, but generally awesome.

I killed pyxxy. TSP was right, I am a one-shot vig. I would have used it on Scotty if pyxxy had gone over instead. I don't think that moves the needle at all, but I feel like it's time for full disclosure. I was also "pacified" on Days 3 and 4, so I couldn't Fight or use Day abilities, though I had none to use.

I don't think I post this if I'm Jack's last teammate:

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 11:35 am
gims wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 11:31 am I suppose we could go roxy since she peaced out from the game and that looks more alignment indicative than jack poofing from existence

idk. I'll be around. kinda trust all of you atm? which is probably not a great thing.
We could go Jack and save Roxy for tomorrow.

Are there two-Wolf scenarios we should be considering, or should we just assume the worst and hope to be pleasantly surprised? Probably the latter.

What if we kill one of them, and it's a Wolf, and the other doesn't show up, and there's still a nightkill?

[VOTE: Roxy] aubergine

Sometimes it pays off to miss the deadline.

I wonder if Jack thought I was his partner?

Oh wait, it's delayed, isn't it. FIND OUT LATER!

OR it's two Wolves left and we have just lost! FIND OUT NOW! :o

hell, so would Mac and MR I bet.

gims would switch too

Jack, no one else is here.

[VOTE: Roxy] aubergine

Maybe she's just the last Wolf.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 12:32 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 12:26 pm Wait, Roxy, if you are trying to communicate, vote for me.
That mechanic of being silenced without the whole thread being notified and having to communicate through votes only has never actually been in a game has it?

It definitely has.

Wait, Roxy, if you are trying to communicate, vote for me.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 12:21 pm
gims wrote: ↑Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:57 pmLET IT RAND
I think this is town. It's absolutely a thing I've seen wolves say more as "I need something to say because I'm scared to actually say or do anything atm" but gth, this is a townie posting.

The final two posts of Day 3, IF there are three Wolves, cement MR and gims as Town.

If there are only two Wolves, then it could be one of them who was confident that falcon was never making the long game, realized they have to go alone, and made the sacrifice.

I am still willing to vote Roxy. Moreso than before, even, with the silent voting shenanigans.

where have you been since Thursday?

gims wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 11:31 am I suppose we could go roxy since she peaced out from the game and that looks more alignment indicative than jack poofing from existence

idk. I'll be around. kinda trust all of you atm? which is probably not a great thing.

We could go Jack and save Roxy for tomorrow.

Are there two-Wolf scenarios we should be cnosidering, or should we just assume the worst and hope to be pleasantly surprised? Probably the latter.

What if we kill one of them, and it's a Wolf, and the other doesn't show up, and there's still a nightkill?

I went back and looked at Mac's posts for Roxy interaction, and just from reading through his posts I felt like "ok, he's probably Town". Then there seemed to be a notable lack of Roxy interaction, alarmingly little at first. Thought I "had something".

Then I saw this post:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 4:33 pm Eh don't overreact to roxy's ate gims... she goes over next for certain.

I largely agree with your first solve. After reading the eod yesterday I think Roxy/LC are the most likely. Falcon spewed MR town imo. Jack was critical to Falcon going over and did not need to townside.

@Roxy can you talk to me about why you townread Falcon so much please?

@Master Radishes can you explain why you tried so hard to push Roxy over Falcon?

... and I realized that the whole latest page of Mac's ISO if from when Roxy wasn't present.

So that explains that.

Then this:

Roxy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:54 pm voted Mac tho scary to vote with radish LC voted there and he got us Scotty.

... and I don't think Mac and Roxy are the Wolves. Roxy almost certainly is, she was willing to do anything BUT vote falcon, read EoD again with that in mind and she looks bad.

It's just lame to go Jack and Roxy right now, but it's not Radishes or gims, it cannot be, they are the architects of falcon's demise in the last seconds of the Day.

gims wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 9:40 am jack bounced from the game lmao

what do we do now

i dont think this is a play whatsoever, like, jack isnt giving up as scum, this is something NAI

roxy also gone from the game it seems, its only the 4 of us yapping atm

sucks that I lowkey townread everyone playing lol

Three hours left. It just seems like it's Jack and Roxy at this point. Even if it's just one of them, I don't think their teammate among we four is doing much to push either way. I guess maybe Mac could be with Roxy, and going for Jack.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 6:26 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 7:13 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:41 pm To use an old reference from MU,

Falcon's iso was a plinko board. Gims' iso is a waterfall.
How's LCs?
Not sure it fits either descriptor perfectly. Feels smoother than plinko but more like a calm river than a waterfall.

So, does Plinko mean that the person is jumping from topic to topic, unfocused, and reaching a conclusion in a dubious way? As opposed to a waterfall that has an easily followable flow of ideas that naturally lead to a conclusion?

Or is Plinko a style that just pops up here and there in the thread, and the waterfall is present for longer exchanges?

It's not that I don't get metaphors, I've just never heard this one and I feel like I could interpret it in several ways.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Apr 20, 2025 12:52 am It's kind of wild that Jack hasn't posted at all today...

Since Wednesday I think.

gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 10:32 pm ugh sorry roxy voted rad, not falcon. she never voted falcon.

Oh.

That could be significant.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:18 pm
gims wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:16 pm I understand the jack posts look bad. I'm not fighting this flip. but imo its really just LC.
@Long Con I think your interest would make more sense to be in debating your alignment with gims than mine with me.

Ok! Looking back at Day 3 and part of a quote that I'm looking at right now (and will post when I figure it out) where Jack says: "Like LC said, we're in position to sleepwalk to a MR yeet..." and I was like "hey yeah, I did say that!" And then (through no influence of mine) the yeet was shifted to Wolf falcon.

But I'm kinda the original guy who said the impending MR yeet (was it 6 votes on him, no other votes on the board?) was something that should at least have a more nuanced approach. Apparently I said something somewhat impactful as it was being quoted.

That is my contribution in the debate on my alignment, thank you Mac for the advice.

gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 10:08 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:42 pm Is it equally unlikely that any of the active voters at EoD are Wolf then?
not really? but they're also some of my strongest townreads atm (roxy, rad)

It was a process of vote-shifting with the folk who were present. Did anyone stand out as *most* hesitant to vote falcon? Was radishes a proponent of the falcon yeet?

I haven't looked back at it yet with the perspective that the game could have been over. What I'd like to see is no indication of that in anyone's undercurrents during that time.

I'll just go look.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 7:13 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:41 pm To use an old reference from MU,

Falcon's iso was a plinko board. Gims' iso is a waterfall.
How's LCs?

Oh, yes please. I don't understand this metaphor yet.

gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:21 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:43 pm Radishes was the counterwagon. Why isn't it Radishes though?
not if your worldview is jack/mac

I don't want a worldview, I want a solve.

gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:25 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:50 pm Why isn't it gims?
I had a lot of control over the gamestate at ELO because I was the only player townreading radish, while kay and roxy wanted to kill him. I had many ways to make sure a townie would die instead of my partner, as that would lead to a scum win. I'd be p ashamed if I put my partner on a 4-2 at EOD instead of at least going 3-3 and forcing a flip, and that doesn't even count for the fact that I put radish himself at 3 votes so he could flip with mac after I asked him to vote mac. I was in a position where I could kill radish, mac and falcon by playing very normal mafia, and if we're dealing with a 3 player scumteam, that would be scum win. if im scum at that eod, scum wouldn't flip.

Is it equally unlikely that any of the active voters at EoD are Wolf then?

Why isn't it gims?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:41 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:40 am
gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:10 am LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.

also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.
We just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.

I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.
So your case is that I not only bussed Falcon but then to follow it up now decided to bury my other partner too?

You do seem to be voting Jack right now, it's true. I'm willing to take it one step at a time. Instant double-bus is not realistic. [VOTE: jack] aubergine

Radishes was the counterwagon. Why isn't it Radishes though?

gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:58 pm there's something silly going on if the game is jack and mac though

if its jack and mac and falcon, they have all avoided auto winning the game to cross vote and peace out on a partner. yes it could be a play, but it feels really counterintuitive to me that scum team would behave this way. unfortunately I have grown to also townread the people outside of that wagon, so I'm in a pickle where maybe *forgetting* was a thing. for instance, if they vote for master radishes, they win? because one townie at least would be voting them. like. you need ONE townie to vote with you, because town votes were scattered.

That's more or less the point I was making. In order to believe this, you have to believe that they screwed up by not getting back by EoD and changing their votes.

Jack STILL hasn't posted since Thursday morning, you think he was being strategic, or just kinda dipped for a bit?

Falcon's last post was Wednesday afternoon - you think his team was counting on him to rally and do the optimal play?

Like, I know I'm probably the king of tinfoil, and I can't think of another player on the site that I tinfoil more than Mac or Jack. Maybe Wilgy, actually. I know both these guys have Wolf games that are indistinguishable from their Town games; they've both earned the paranoia from me repeatedly.

I wish that they had both been present at the end of the day, and still kept their votes where they were.

I also acknowledge that, as Wolves, they are each likely to be running the numbers, and to realize that a Town elimination is Game Over yesterday. So then they both vote Wolves and clock out early? That's not very believable assuming optimum play.

All it takes is "damn I thought I'd be back well before the poll ended but life got in the way and/or I just forgot" and it looks to me like something very possible.

gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:10 am LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.

also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.

We just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.

I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.

From memory, neither Mac nor Jack were around during the last few hours of the day. I was not there at all until after the poll closed, but I did reread the four (?) players present until the day ended. Lots of vote movement, and several players missing from the thread.

Yes, these scenarios have all assumed optimal play, but mistakes and unavailability are both real.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 9:35 am So like...yeah, LC can easily be with Falcon. It's no guarantee, but I'd be willing to vote there if gims insists. Still leaning towards Jack as more conventionally 'wolfy' though.

Same question, why would Jack vote falcon when keeping him alive gets the win?

Or does one of these Jack suspecters KNOW its a two Wolf team?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:57 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:55 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:44 am It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.
Tell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?

It depends somewhat on how the fallout of that MR lynch comes around. But there'd be three voices in the thread to direct opinion, which would probably be pretty strong.

Wait, no. I just looked. There are six players left. That would have been the final elimination of the game; Mafia would have reached parity after the nightkill. Or it's a 2-person Mafia team and falcon's teammate would a) not be so disposed to bus and b) be scrambling to get a handle on several future yeets as a solo baddie.

If it's a three-Wolf team then everyone who voted falcon must be Town, because a Town yeet would have resulted in Mafia victory.

If it's a two-Wolf team then bussing is possible but a harder road to travel, albeit with an advantage.

Again, I have had a few drinks. Is my assessment accurate or did I miss some key factors?
Yes i think we are either in LC + Jack or just Jack.

You think Jack wouldn't play for the easier win, like you? How can he be a Wolf when he voted out falcon?

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