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by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

As a matter of fact, I'm ruling Jay out as being the SK based on that little tidbit.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Sloonei wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I could see inh having information on leetic after reading his Day 1 posts.
Why are you voting for me?
You've made multiple comments about Ted Cruz being the SK. The first one was a response to Quin on Day 0. But the second one was unprovoked on this current day phase.

You were the one who sorted through the SK/mafia kills. Jay tried and G-Man frowned at him. You did it and got no such reaction.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

I could see inh having information on leetic after reading his Day 1 posts.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.
It's not his reasons for believing that which I find suspicious. I agree with them. It's that he thinks Golden is faking information about INH -- but he still trusts Golden the most and INH the least. That doesn't make sense to me.
I could see a reason for it, perhaps. I've seen faked information before (I think Boomslang did it in the GoC?).

There is only one SK left presumably, so Quin doesn't have as much need to make such a dubious comment. You make a good argument.



Do you think this is the most suspicious thing you have seen today, or just the most recent?
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marmot, please talk to me about this:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?
Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.
Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.
BRB.
I don't see what you see.

Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

Linki: nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo :omg:
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:You've voted Sloonei Marmot. What is the cause?
My vote was in a silly place anyway. As of this moment, I still think Sloonei's the way to go today.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Sloonei wrote:Note the (2) next to Quin's vote. He parked himself there at the start of the day and has not budged.

Everything's looking bad for Quin now, I can't stop.
Not necessarily. I don't know when he voted, but that just means his vote is the oldest of all the current ones.

Linki: lol, yeah I'm not sure what I was thinking with that post.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Sloonei wrote:I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.
There's also the fact that Epignosis said nothing about Quin 2.0 and that makes it untraceable other than for someone to say this.
Epignosis had taken a little heat on Day 1. Do you think Beck would still kill him knowing that?
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

I'm at work now, so I'll be in and out.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:VOTE METALMARSH89
Two can play that game.

VOTE JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
Okay. I don't think that vote serves a purpose.

Here's my struggle, bros: my suspicions are more centered on Sloonei and MM than the others, though just marginally (I haven't felt this conflicted about a vote in a long time). Both of you have led the tally recently, and both of you have responded in a way that seems genuine and believable.

However, Sloonei's response is a bit more forensic. I can see the explanation he is providing for his hunting methods, and I think they align with what he has done in this thread (before he or I ever suggested it was what he was doing). MM's response is more emotion-driven: the notion that he wouldn't kill Epignosis. In recent memory, I have been getting burned when I trust those emotion-driven posts and I am less feeling less inclined to operate that way right now with the game on the line.
That's a combination of the emotion and logic. On one hand, I offered personal reasons. On the other hand, I offered a statistical trend that suggests that I am not the SK. Take your pick.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:27 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Sloonei wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Sloonei, if you do end up mislynched how would you recommend we approach the following day phase?
Continue on as you have been today, perhaps with just a bit more urgency. I like the way the discussion has flowed, even if it is currently focused in the wrong place. Like I've said a couple times today, I have been approaching it like Day 1 because we're now hunting for one bad guy who could conceivably have left no trace whatsoever the previous 3 days, and the easiest way to catch him will be to make everyone explain what they're doing to catch him. Anyone who has trouble doing that or seems dishonest is a good suspect. And like I said, you, golden, and quin have all seemed to be genuine today. I'm still underwhelmed by Metalmarsh and waffling on INH.
If you are a mislynch, we are probably in LYLO tomorrow.

And now you see why I didn't want to focus effort on finding the SK yesterday? They are hard to catch!
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:VOTE METALMARSH89
Two can play that game.

VOTE JAGGEDJIMMYJAY
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Sloonei wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Another note.

Sloonei raised the point that I didn't want to search for the SK earlier. That was correct. I didn't want to spend the energy looking for a solitary player when a team of 3 is easier to pursue. I did the same thing in Talking Heads. This is not a new strategy for me.

If the best and pretty much most viable method to hunt a SK is to study their nightkills, then doing early game hunts for such a role would probably be fruitless.
I was grasping at straws, okay cool. I'm treating today like Day 1 because the serial killer hunt is essentially a blank slate, and I was filling it in the only way I know how. Please don't base this critical mislynch off of some shit that I was flinging. That would be awful.
Touche.

But I haven't forgotten that you're the one who pooled through the Host Posts to determine who the SK may have nightkilled. ;)
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Quin wrote:I wouldn't study even if it was over. :sigh:
I don't start classes for another 2.5 weeks. :sigh:

Linki: oh hai.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:36 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

I'm off to bed now. Catch you all in the morning. :offtobed:
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:32 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Quin wrote:
Quin wrote:I intend to move my vote from marmot at some point. I don't know where I want it to go. :disappoint:

Marmot, do you have a list of most/least likely to be the SK?

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?
Just to go a bit more in depth,

marmot does not seem to me the kind of person to use 'emotional appeals' like this as a scum/indie tactic.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Golden wrote:Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?
A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. :) But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.
I used to get emotional in mafia games, but that was before I became a marmot.

Quin, what's your candidate list look like?
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:29 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Quin wrote:I intend to move my vote from marmot at some point. I don't know where I want it to go. :disappoint:

Marmot, do you have a list of most/least likely to be the SK?

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?
I made one earlier.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:My vote today will end up on either insertnamehere, Sloonei, JaggedJimmyJay. I think there's enough circumstantial evidence based on activity to rule out Quin 2.0 and Golden 2.0. Those 3 are listed in order of my current vote preference.
But it needs to be updated, so here's my new colorful one.

Golden 2.0
Quin 2.0
JaggedJimmyJay
insertnamehere
Sloonei
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:27 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
I told you. I'm more interested in lynching someone who could be either mafia or serial killer. I don't think reywaS or DrWilgy are the latter. You could be either one.
That is a peculiar strategy. Why are you using it?
What makes it peculiar?
Why would you not simply want to lynch the person most likely to be mafia or most likely to be the serial killer? It seems you are thinning out or weakening your suspicions by trying to potentially lynch them both. You can only lynch one player at a time. Why not focus on one role?
Because you catch serial killers by luck. Even if I'm wrong that 3J is mafia, there's a chance he's a serial killer. If you're wrong about reywaS, you're probably not getting the serial killer.
I do not agree that we catch serial killers purely by luck.
Epignosis may have been scum, but that's irrelevant to the SK. He didn't know that. Thus, anyone communicating with Epignosis among the living people would be interacting with him as they would anyone else.

Epi rejected the reywaS lynch because he said it didn't boast dual-potential to net a mafia or a serial killer. He wanted to lynch someone who was a viable candidate for both (he was bullshitting, but it's the perspective he provided). Given this mindset he portrayed, he was clearly conscious of both the mafia and the serial simultaneously -- the mindset Sloonei would seem to favor when he criticizes MM for "let's ignore the serial killer".

This might be an actual contradiction from Sloonei and evidence a disingenuous interaction.

I like this a lot. It's a small thing to pick up on, but it does not agree with what he's accused me of.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:16 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also note, Sloonei did not call Jay out for also wanting to pursue mafia over the SK on Day 3.
This reminded me of a thing. Stand by.

This post is pointless, I'm sorry for it.
I'm going to bed when I finish my beer.

But I should be around in the morning.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:14 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Also note, Sloonei did not call Jay out for also wanting to pursue mafia over the SK on Day 3.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:11 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Another note.

Sloonei raised the point that I didn't want to search for the SK earlier. That was correct. I didn't want to spend the energy looking for a solitary player when a team of 3 is easier to pursue. I did the same thing in Talking Heads. This is not a new strategy for me.

If the best and pretty much most viable method to hunt a SK is to study their nightkills, then doing early game hunts for such a role would probably be fruitless.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:06 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:For some reason I believe you, Marmot. :rolleyes:
I'm mildly surprised. Remember that other guy who said he's only ever bussed a teammate once? :rolleyes:
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:02 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I don't feel good about voting for anyone. I hate serial killers.
Going back through all of my games, I realized that I've never been a SK.

Linki: I would kill Ricochet in a heartbeat though. :beer:
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:59 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Here's some proof for you too, a list of every game I've played on this site and been mafia.

X-Men - Epignosis hosted.
The Hobbit - Epignosis survived to the end, but did not win.
Monopoly - I intentionally did not kill him, but the other baddies did.
Film Directors - Epignosis did not play.
Death Note - I did not kill Epignosis as mafia, but Bass the SK did.
Recruitment - Epignosis was killed Night 1 by the other baddies. He replaced back in for DH later, and we had to kill him late in the game because we knew he was a very powerful civilian role that we needed dead to win.
World Reborn - I can't remember who killed Epignosis, but I had nothing to do with it.
Downton - I let Epignosis live until my bitter end.
Angry Birds - Epignosis hosted.
Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder - He was lynched Day 1 lol.
Dune - Epignosis hosted.
Pikmin - We let Epignosis live until the end, and we won!
Barry Lyndon - We killed Epignosis to win the game. Epignosis essentially lived the whole game.
Psychic - I don't remember much of this game, but I subbed in and was almost immediately nightkilled myself. I do recall Epignosis living a while though.

So there you go, I've been on a team that has killed Epignosis twice. Once was to end a game. Once was because I (we) needed his role dead as part of our win condition. Epignosis being killed in this game does not fit in a scenario that I would kill him, and I absolutely did not do it.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:40 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Golden wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Golden wrote:Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?
A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. :) But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.
I can understand that as a rule... I have in the past had a similar feeling towards you (it only lasts so long from me though, until the luck evens out). Are you suggesting there are no exceptions to this rule?
Much appreciated. :biggrin:

Not necessarily. If I am on a team with other people, and they felt the need to kill Epignosis, it would happen. Endgame scenarios are ruled out as well.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:28 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Golden wrote:Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?
A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. :) But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:16 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Sloonei wrote:The marmot has started to separate himself for me, mostly because everyone else has done something to make me believe they are not the serial killer. Metalmarsh has done no such thing.
Can you make a list of these things?
by Marmot
Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:15 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 3

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.
This is just generally speaking, not because of what inh has done in this game. :P

Linki: this^
I already explained to you the thought behind that post Jay.
I don't understand the explanation, now that we're here looking at it again. What about INH, generally speaking and not because of what he has done in this game, makes him prime SK material?
In my eyes, inh is the quintessential SK. When I think of him in mafia, I think of him being a dastardly and cunning fellow.
Sloonei wrote:
Sloonei wrote:So my question is this: If we assume the serial killer wants to kill Trump, and Trump is a townie, the serial killer would be someone who had been town reading Boomslang, Rico, and Epi at the times of their deaths. Maybe.

Metalmarsh made little to no mention of Boomslang or Rico around their deaths. He had Epi as green on a late rainbow list.
This isn't a question. I never asked a question. Do people agree with this premise? And if so, who might that implicate?
I didn't townread Ricochet. But if I was the SK, I would certainly entertain killing him since he asked. I do have a sense of humor like that. :)

I didn't have anything to say about any of the kills iirc.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm watchinh handegg tonight. I'm warming to an MM vote.
These thoughts are so very related. :stare:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.
I have never and have no intention of ever nightkilling Epignosis.
Sloonei wrote:Tell me about this Quin 2.0.
Tell me also about this Quin.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:23 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 3

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.
This is just generally speaking, not because of what inh has done in this game. :P

Linki: this^
I already explained to you the thought behind that post Jay.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Sloonei wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote::beer:
Let's talk about why you are voting for me. Is it just because I've made a couple remarks about Ted Cruz?
I also haven't read you very much otherwise and felt like moving my vote around.

I found it curious that you suggested Ted Cruz is the serial killer twice now. The first time was semi-prompted, but the second time was unprompted.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

:beer:
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

G-Man wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
G-Man wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.
You are wrong about this. You have all the information you need to figure out who killed whom.
I'm not seeing it. Can you just tell us who did it?
I come from the olden days of Lostpedia and SpoilerTV. Back then, the TV-centric fandom of those sites encouraged longer narratives in lynch and night posts. Those posts helped add depth to the story being told concurrent to the events of the game. They also often contained game-relevant information and were not to be skipped over just to see who died. This is an element I think I miss the most. Gone is much of the art and beauty of the narrative side of game. Instead we trend more toward data-driven posts that cater to those who approach the game more as a science than as a form of entertainment.

This is my first time hosting on The Syndicate. I've got my hosting feet planted firmly in the past. I don't write longer lynch and night posts out of vanity or ego. Read the posts and find the clues.
:smoky:
This sounds like fun!

I suck at these sorts of things though. :P
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

I'm moving my vote to Sloonei.

Are you Ted Cruz mate?
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 0

Sloonei on Day 0 you say?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Looking for mentions of "SK" or "serial killer" or "independent" (noun) or "indy" earlier in the game before it was viewed as a serious possibility:
insertnamehere wrote:yay game!

I'm gonna have to vote for Crazy Bernie, who I expect to be some sort of psycho serial killer role.

Also, Milo Yiannopolus better be a vanilla loser, or I'll become SLIGHTLY MIFFED.

You won't like me when I'm SLIGHTLY MIFFED.
INH on Day 0.
Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:TED CRUZ IS THE ZODIAC KILLER
I'll be immensely disappointed if Ted Cruz isn't a rogue serial killer in this game.
Sloonei on Day 0.

~~~

The conversation about SKs kicked off a lot more after Night 1 where there were two kills.

The purpose of this is that I have sometimes seen LMS rogues who have a tendency to blab about themselves either directly or in roundabout ways. :ponder:
Sloonei on Day 4.
Sloonei wrote:All I know for sure is that I hope we're looking for Ted Cruz right now.
He's got a hankering for finding Ted Cruz. :ponder:
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:53 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

I considered the possibility of mafia having two nightkills and there being no SK, but that goes out the window with Epignosis's flip.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I can't find an example of Epignosis addressing or speaking of Quin 2.0 at any point after Beck was replaced. Not a word.

Not sure why Quin 2.0 would feel the need to kill someone who thought he was invisible.

However, I think you're incorrect to disqualify him MM. Beck was definitely here at the start of Night 1, and Quin 2.0 replaced him in the middle of Night 2. The slot was filled and active as necessary to deliver all possible SK kills.
Alright, Quin's not off the table. I incorrectly remembered when he subbed back in.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

My vote today will end up on either insertnamehere, Sloonei, JaggedJimmyJay. I think there's enough circumstantial evidence based on activity to rule out Quin 2.0 and Golden 2.0. Those 3 are listed in order of my current vote preference.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 3

This is the only serious thing Epignosis had to say to me all game. Lot's of jokiness, but this is it with regards to on-topic posts.
Epignosis wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I just voted INH.
I'd like to know why.
I was reading through INH. It's a small thing, but:
insertnamehere wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
insertnamehere wrote: And I'm very rarely 100% sure of anyone's alignment. Although, if I am, it's probably Epignosis. And I've been right about him for the last two games.
Yeah, you really got me with that, "He's either Shawn or a confused civilian but totally not Yin oh no wait he's Yin."

You should be a politician. :nicenod:
I thought you were Yin ever since my team failed to NK you, I just didn't announce so in the thread. :p
INH made like he was some expert on me. When I called him on it, he raised the fact that he was bad in that game...which was the entire point of my response.

Since then, he's called me good. That doesn't sit right with me looking back.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I am content to act on the assumption that the serial killer killed Epignosis with the intention of removing a townie. Credit to Epignosis to looking the part (perhaps a little too well :p). With this in mind, I think the kill would be less likely to come from someone who was in good standing with Epi. This would be a decent look for Golden 2.0 -- he and Epi had their disagreements, but it never took the form of Epi suspecting Golden. I might even say that from the perspective of a SK Golden, he'd have had Epi pocketed. I don't believe Epi ever cast meaningful suspicion upon Sloonei either -- just an isolated :ponder: about his Day 1 CFDing.

I can't remember off-hand what Epi's take was on MM and Becquin. I'll have to look.
Epignosis never really interacted with me. That's curious. :ponder:
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:An SK would have the inclination to act as an active baddie-hunter, especially at a point in the game where civilian numbers are low compared to mafia numbers.
They would, yes. And perhaps INH really was looking for a scum and tunneled me that thoroughly. It happens. I want him to respond to my assertions before I make that assumption in his favor.
It's certainly plausible. The odds of Quin being the SK aren't very high, and the odds of him being mafia are extremely slim considering they're likely dead. Yet he's tunneled on me the last day and a half.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I can only remember one game where we lynched a player because we thought they were the SK, as opposed to reading them as mafia. That was in Talking Heads with Diiny. And if I recall, the only reason we caught him was because he didn't post one night and missed a kill. His record otherwise was pretty pristine.
I voted for Diiny in Talking Heads because of night kill analysis. Because it was successful in that game, I employed the same method in this game -- that's when I determined the two players most implicated by the kills on Nights 1 and 2 were INH and yourself. I've started to like you more since then, and I think Epignosis on Night 3 is also attributable to INH (Epignosis voiced suspicion of INH throughout Day 3 and after reywaS flipped town and I looked better he'd have probably gone that direction again).
And here's a testament as to why I would not nightkill Epignosis. :P
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:My point is, I don't think you can use the exact same argument with a different conclusion, because the argument doesn't relate to this particular role.
That's kind of my point too -- the conclusion is a general one. He suspects me regardless of circumstance and is not developing his read. He's counting on me being lynched. I think that's mafia behavior and serial killer behavior. I could be wrong, but I want his answers.
Perhaps you are right. I think I'm just being overly pedantic about this.

If inh suspects you of being mafia (sincerely or not), then nightkilling you isn't really in the cards for him, as that leaves him at a dead end, and looking bad if he is wrong about you.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Does inh have anything to gain by forcing a read on you that he doesn't believe in?
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think my beefs with INH are as applicable to a serial killer as a scum, so I'd still like a response to that.
Except for Point 1, I don't think any of this is relevant anymore.

Point 2 might be relevant since the SK nightkilled Epignosis. inh doesn't like that you suggest that SK nightkill a possible mafia member, and the ensuing night, the most townread player in the game (aside from the just-returned Golden) is nightkilled. But that's only if you think inh's thoughts and the SK's actions are that well-connected.
I don't follow. The point of that post was to illustrate that INH's read on me is not developing organically, which would be applicable to anyone whose chief interest is survival.

I could actually see INH himself killing Epignosis and then painting that hyper-complex and improbable scenario to blame me for it.
I thought the point was to call it mafia behavior?

An SK would have the inclination to act as an active baddie-hunter, especially at a point in the game where civilian numbers are low compared to mafia numbers.

I can only remember one game where we lynched a player because we thought they were the SK, as opposed to reading them as mafia. That was in Talking Heads with Diiny. And if I recall, the only reason we caught him was because he didn't post one night and missed a kill. His record otherwise was pretty pristine.

My point is, I don't think you can use the exact same argument with a different conclusion, because the argument doesn't relate to this particular role.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think my beefs with INH are as applicable to a serial killer as a scum, so I'd still like a response to that.
Except for Point 1, I don't think any of this is relevant anymore.

Point 2 might be relevant since the SK nightkilled Epignosis. inh doesn't like that you suggest that SK nightkill a possible mafia member, and the ensuing night, the most townread player in the game (aside from the just-returned Golden) is nightkilled. But that's only if you think inh's thoughts and the SK's actions are that well-connected.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

The last time (and only other time) Epignosis bussed a teammate was in Guess Who? Mafia.
Spoiler: show
Image


This is the real Pamela Brown!
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Also, my silly Day 1 case was spot on. :eek:
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Wooo! Was a baddie team eliminated?
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:14 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Quin wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Quin wrote:But you should also feel bad about making this the most stressful game of mafia ever played :haha:
Fwiw, I feel incredibly unstressed about this game. :D

On a side note, I'm housesitting for my friend and her dog while she's away. Today's Day 1, and I come home from work to find her dog got into her roommate's bedroom and dropped a giant bomb in the middle of the their floor. :sigh:

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
:haha:

Yup, sums it up nicely.
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:10 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Quin wrote:But you should also feel bad about making this the most stressful game of mafia ever played :haha:
Fwiw, I feel incredibly unstressed about this game. :D

On a side note, I'm housesitting for my friend and her dog while she's away. Today's Day 1, and I come home from work to find her dog got into her roommate's bedroom and dropped a giant bomb in the middle of the their floor. :sigh:
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:05 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My PC² in this game is currently 149.50. I am not going to explain what this means.
I assume it means your average posts-per-day?
by Marmot
Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:04 am
Forum: Previous Heists
Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
Replies: 2588
Views: 63939

Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4

Golden wrote:If anyone is 'taking me in' it will turn out to be marmot.

His talk about what good civilian play looks like is like giving a girl roses on a first date.
If I've stated what I think good civilian play looks like, you should probably mute me for the rest of the game.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Actually the biggest concern about Golden 2.0 is that he is also leetic, and who knows WTF to do with leetic. I honestly think that if leetic was some manner of non-townie, we're in trouble because there's no evidence to support it given leetic's silence and the fact that neither dead scum had much to say about him (other than Scotty's semi-self-preservation vote).
To counter that, leetic and reywaS were both essentially MIA on Night 2, meaning the slimmest of chances that would make them possible mafia partners is that leetic logged on to submit a kill and that's it, or that G-Man let Scotty submit the nightkill.

Otherwise, leetic/Golden 2.0 cannot be reywaS's partner, nor can he be a killer of any kind.

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