The Syndicate

I nominate Dolby. They haven't posted today, but a couple of their reads I find nuanced enough to be more town-associated.

NAA works too. He hasn't been low-posting in general, but he hasn't posted yet today.

Ruri, I have very little confident in being town.

DoO I'm middling on. She's offered just enough engagement and discussion to not look like my memory of her scumplay, there's just not a lot of it. GTH, I'd call her town.

sabie appears to be having trouble formulating a strategy in this game or doing much, but she's being open about all of this, and I think that's slightly towny. I'd be ok yeeting her today.

Luckbox's Day 3 I find kinda scummy. He has made many posts that look like "I don't really know about so-and-so, but I also haven't read" or "Player X could be this, but I haven't really read their posts" There is a number of instances of adding excuses to his engagements/statements. Example 1, Example 2, Example 3. I perceive this as offering back doors for their reads so they can walk away from them. I'm curious about other players' thoughts on this.

Poison/ignoramus. Poison fell off the face of the earth, and ignoramus hasn't become engaged enough in the game for me to TR him, but I gather that he will be.


DrWilgy, Scotty, and Sonny/Gavial don't qualify, being avid posters this game. (Sonny hasn't but Gav has)

If Scotty really is mafia, he'll almost certainly keep talking the next couple days (unless he's killed tonight), and we can broach it again Day 5. That's my main argument for not chopping him today.

Why don't we yeet a low-poster today? If they're town, great for us! If not, then it's a wash since mafia will have to kill town tonight anyway. Either way, it'll be easier to do that now than waiting until F3.

Just thinking ahead, town can't win this game at all before F3, so yeeting obvious town every single day will make our lives harder in the future. I know we talked about Day 3 and Day 5 being better gamble days for us, what about a gamble in that direction?

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:07 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:02 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:56 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:47 am

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:41 am I don't like Scotty at all this game, but Gaviale posting seems towny

Stating the obvious?

Which is obvious? That gav’s post seem towny or that she doesn’t like me

Yeah, which makes me wonder why Gav is choosing this interaction (with you)... Maybe I have it backward.

I'll have to read the thread (probably N2 if I'm not dispatched today).

Well Gav is probably engaging with me because I’m engaging with him and he just wants to be involved. This hot potato game he’s suggesting is probably NAI but it also screams ‘I want to appear like I’m being productive’

Not scum reading him right now, but he’s not super town to me yet.

I feel like wolves probably feel a need to be a bit more vocal today since that seems to be the way we’re lynching. I’m still wary of Wilgy, and…honestly, even marmot.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:43 am If luckbox is wolf, his posts have been intentionally milquetoast.

Marmot is on my potential wolf list.

Ruri actually seems town to me

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:49 pm okieee heres my current list, in order of least confident to lynch > cannons away

DaughterOfOmega
Wilgy
Marmot
sabie

Gavial
Ruri
Dolby

Poison
Luckbox
NAA
tess
TSP

Scotty talking about me on Day 2.



Why am I your vote today Scotty? You're voting me because you think I'm town right?

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:22 pm We really should be making mafia kill their own this night phase, giving an obv town more time to talk d4, as opposed to mafia getting a free pass today, killing obv town tonight, and losing a potential helpful voice. Scummiest player should not be voted out today.

Maybe Marmot should be the chop today for that reason.

Marmot and Wilgy wanted my head for a while now, and I can’t actually remember what reads NAA has pushed

Scotty argues we should try to chop a townie today.

Scotty also argues against him being today's chop.


These two thoughts together, unless I'm missing a switch in cognitive processing, suggest to me that you are mafia Scotty.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:10 am It’s been over 24 hours and I don’t think marmot or NAA have posted.

Dunno what that means.

I worked yesterday and was out late afterward, that's what it means.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:02 pm And if it’s ‘well, I just want him to shut up because I’m trying to have a chill game’ then stick a fork in it, buster brown.

Why on earth would I as mafia be so averse to being lynched? I could just as easily Kill myself tonight if we lynch a town.

Now, half the town thinks I’m bad and what have we learned when I’m revealed town?

Counterpoint. Why, as town, would you be averse to it?

iH

I did cc your claim, you better TR me.

tessepia wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:22 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:22 pm I mean, it does look like random participation in the world where TSP and I are both town. But sure.

zz

Nah cause if that's the situation he just votes TSP to look townier for voting on a town that went over rather than vanity wagoning p much

Does that look townier? These EOD's are snoozers right now since it kinda doesn't matter.

I still overall agree with you, I'm mainly playing devil's advocate.

I mean, it does look like random participation in the world where TSP and I are both town. But sure.

Self votes don't count and make you immune to chop the next day.

tessepia wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:17 pm I don't think Dolby has any wolf motivation to justify a vote on Marmot when the previous most probable candidate is TSP

Like the only world is Dolby/TSP w/w and Dolby wants to do subtle distancing from TSP but not negate the votes there that much? But like nah, lol

Basically if Dolby is a wolf and he shows up and people are going "lets just vote this wolf out" he probably goes yeah alright and goes along with it

And the same applies to a towny cause

If he suggest a vote onto Marmot wolf, then it'll be a little too brazen probably--just in general but also other reasons I don't care to get into

And if Marmot is town, he doesn't really get himself anything special, when he can just vote TSP instead, and if TSP goes over and he's not a part of voting town it's just like, why

Don't know if I'm explaining properly but I think showing up EoD just to go "lets vote this random person" from Dolby is like 90% town on it's own

My rodent brain says wut, but it sounds like you're offering a meta read.

We are (almost) podracing.

tessepia wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:13 pm Dolby probably a fine vote

k

[VOTE: Dolby] aubergine

The host has a secret tie-breaking system, so we should just avoid ties.

Close votes are fine though.

Dolby wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:34 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:33 pm Wait am I gonna die

yeah I'm a triple voter gonna elim you

Oh crap, I was pre-eminently cc'd afterall

Wait am I gonna die

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:14 pm You can't be mountainous without an ______.

Without an... unta?

Spec chat right now: "This isn't a mafia game, this is a f'ing chatroom."

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:59 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:56 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:12 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:00 pm Don't make me do it Dr

Wha happen

I am mountainous

Maybe cut back on all those carbs, my marmot

Gotta put on the winter weight so I can hibernate. I'm sticking to primarily starches and fibers at least.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:57 pm Wilgy, my therapist has told me it would be advantageous to have an open mind, and as a Taurus, I’m intrinsically stubborn when I am set on a path.

Without a flip of wolf yet, it’s all grasping at straws. I’m not fully committed to you being a wolf, despite you being the recipient of my tunnel this game.

You voting tess is something I agree with, for instance.

Without a wolf flip everything is darkness

I literally just got out of a therapy session, but my therapist told me other things, like to unravel my negative cognitions.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:12 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:00 pm Don't make me do it Dr

Wha happen

I am mountainous

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:39 pm Odds are, if Wilgy is bad, Poison is probably town in 9/10 simulations.

I like how you offered a perfectly reasonable independent probability as a dependent one

Don't make me do it Dr

In a game where we're just intentionally mindlessly yeeting townies, I don't think anyone can be accused yet of bad reads yet.

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:43 am Oh right we win by reaching parity. So we could technically win at f5

I don't believe so. It's impossible for town to win before F3, because no matter what, there will (or at least should) be two mafia dead by the time we reach F5, meaning we need to get two town yeets in a row starting at F5.

Scum can win in F5 though, as there will be one scum, and all they have to do is get yeeted.



Is this a scumslip?

Actually, everyone should probably make a list before the end of each day, that might be useful, and give us things to talk about.

Hmm, it might be challenging to really get a grasp on who the mafia are before we learn one of them (which hopefully doesn't happen until Day 3). Hunting for them now before one of them flips doesn't feel fruitful.

POEing is fine. I like TSP's idea of a list. @TonyStarkPrime could you make a list before you die just so we have a confirmed townie's list to go off of tomorrow (assuming you're town).

Poison/Scotty/DrWilgy sounds like a dope mafia team. Is that the team?

It just occurred to me why Scotty's pfp is a Scottish Terror.

@Poison we miss you come back plzzzzzzzzzz

Luckbox Inc wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 10:04 am

Ruri wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:20 am I wonder if optimal play is to just vote out the lurkers. Those who post a lot should be easy to solve towards late-game. Or, we should always leave the most obvious townie in the game. Since mafia will get a free kill on their own if this is past D3, it also might be better to vote out one mafia just before that.. Prevents them from picking someone they're sure won't be voted out.

This pretty much the only post that has any content, but the other ones seem fine on tone.

I wolfed with Phraze not too long ago although don't have much insight gleaned from it. I think she's generally pretty utr and don't assume that she would be posting too hard in either role here-- so she's probably still basically rand here. But I do like the post quoted above.

Post #420 hype

Nobody will be able to cc me, it'll be beautiful.

I will out myself later when I RC

Luckbox Inc wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:48 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:43 am If luckbox is wolf, his posts have been intentionally milquetoast.

Marmot is on my potential wolf list.

Ruri actually seems town to me

I've felt like it basically doesn't matter if I end up in the POE given that we're trying to kill villagers-- I get that that can be problematic late game when it comes time to kill wolves, but I'm a pretty decent late game villager and fortunately not a lot of people here know me-- so I probably will live and we'll get to put that to the test-- should be fun.

See you in F3.

I don't see any reason for Ruri to be town, what do you see there?

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:43 am If luckbox is wolf, his posts have been intentionally milquetoast.

Marmot is on my potential wolf list.

Ruri actually seems town to me

Aaaaaayyyyyyyy I do be howlin'

Luckbox Inc wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:40 am

Luckbox Inc wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:38 am just checking in, see that I have zero notifications and that Tony is lead wagon still so it looks like today is going well.

On what day do the wolves get to kill one of their own assuming we keep killing villagers?

n/m I see Marmot just addressed this.

If we accidentially kill a wolf though that would be pretty bad really.

Yeah, it's fine if we do it on Day 3 or 5. It's less than ideal today or Day 4. And we lose if we do it after that.

Luckbox Inc wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:38 am just checking in, see that I have zero notifications and that Tony is lead wagon still so it looks like today is going well.

On what day do the wolves get to kill one of their own assuming we keep killing villagers?

Day 3 and again Day 5.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:50 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:56 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:47 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:45 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:43 pm @Scotty I think the appropriate scum strat is to just kill off townies all day every day, and leave an ambiguous finale? I think it's basically impossible for mafia to win this otherwise barring a ridiculous performance by ALL members of the mafia?

The issue for mafia is they all have to die right? So N3 & N5 have to be used to kill off scum players who suck, voting out the good scum players during the day is just bad play for mafia and probably the only way they lose.

Hence the appropriate strat for town is to kill off question marks on D3 & D5.

Or we could not waste yeets. D3 & 5 should still have a semblance of POE.

I feel like this guy is just posting for the sake of posting.

Says the person who multicolor jestered. Get out of here and don't discredit. Every yeet is important and we shouldn't throw votes willy nilly as you suggest.

I don't disagree with NAA on this one.

If we kill town on Day 3, mafia get to kill one of their own.

If we kill mafia Day 3, mafia won't get to kill one of their own, and have to kill town.


Either way, it's the exact same outcome. The question is: is it more beneficial for us if mafia selects a townie to NK, or selects a wolf to NK?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:40 am

Ruri wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:33 am I wonder if this is some jester game. I vote Luckbox.

I mean it kind of is seeing as how the goal is to be voted out but there are no PRs or anything.

Ruri wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:20 am I wonder if optimal play is to just vote out the lurkers. Those who post a lot should be easy to solve towards late-game. Or, we should always leave the most obvious townie in the game. Since mafia will get a free kill on their own if this is past D3, it also might be better to vote out one mafia just before that.. Prevents them from picking someone they're sure won't be voted out.

Sounds kind of like what others have been suggesting. Do you have someone in mind that you would vote out that you think is potential mafia?

Who else has been suggesting this particular strategy?

Ruri wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:20 am I wonder if optimal play is to just vote out the lurkers. Those who post a lot should be easy to solve towards late-game. Or, we should always leave the most obvious townie in the game. Since mafia will get a free kill on their own if this is past D3, it also might be better to vote out one mafia just before that.. Prevents them from picking someone they're sure won't be voted out.

It would be counter-productive to vote out mafia imo. It puts them closer to their win-con every time we do.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:51 pm Note to hosts, never try to fix a mistake / gameplay-related thing with an in-game post... I think this confirms Scotty as town, right? (I mean he's been angleshooting all day pretty much)

I'd recommend not interacting with the host in-game either (or attempting to) for similar reasons.

[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

She's probably town.

@Gavial we kill the townie people, that's why falcon is dead silly.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:40 am If we just kill everyone who has no clue what’s going on how many wolves do we flip? Zero?

I kinda like this.

Although really, the wolves probably don't care what happens until F5.

I am mountainous

Even when we toss out theories that Sloonei is just slanking scum, he's still killed Night 1.

RIP