The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Voted for Rico.

Even after I voted for you on Dusk 0?

Sorry mate, I picked the guy I think is least likely to be mafia. You're second-least.

Linki: yeah, I just saw that. :P

Russtinko

Whatever, nothing to lose either way. Unfortunately, whoever Drugs is, there's a good chance he drugged Jimmy, and Jimmy might get lynched if his vote gets redircted.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Voted for Rico.

Even after I voted for you on Dusk 0?

Russtifinko - Last visited: Sun Nov 08, 2015 2:15 pm

Day 13 ended at Sun Nov 08, 2015 2:39 pm. Call me paranoid, but could Russ have even sent the nightkill in?

I'll be gone until after the deadline. Hopefully night lasts at least a few hours, but we'll see what MP wants to do I guess.

My vote stays on Diiny.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We have proposals and we have nice dinners with girlfriends. Meanwhile I have eight billion posts in a Mafia game. I have got to find a life.

I'd probably have more than seven billions posts if I didn't miss Days 2 & 3. :P

Diiny wrote:What else was the SK doing on night 5? Probably not missing his PM.

As Jay pointed out, he still kills nightly.

Diiny wrote:OR. PSK tried to kill ??? from night 4 again, not realising that there's a double targeting rule until it was too late?

Something like this has to have happened, because I'm not the sk. As much as you all believe it. Gah

Ricochet, Russ, and I are all knowledgeable of the double-targetting rules.

I would imagine Jay is too, but that's a bigger assumption.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MM is mafia -- This would likely mean that Drugs is still alive and the motel room lynch was coordinated accordingly. His team mate could easily be either Rico or Russ in this scenario. If this is the case though, the game is essentially over for the townies barring some really lucky breaks. It's also possible Wilgy was Drugs and MM is the last mafioso. The lasting concern for me is that when his lynch seemed imminent he vanished from the thread in such a way that it made me feel really good about how he'd flip. I again reiterate though that in this phase he has behaved like a player whose role has been figured out (without outing himself). While my concerns persist, I don't know if we can afford to rely on a theory this complex.

It's not that I intentionally vanished from the thread, but I was out of town with a friend for the day, so my ability to post was limited.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Question to everyone alive, since three of you have much more experience with The Syndicate than I do:

I there anything you can think of that might cause the Night 5 serial killer kill attempt to be absent from MP's host post that night? We know already that he answered this question himself in a seemingly conclusive manner, but I don't know what potential loopholes might exist and this is your opportunity to tell me about them.

Are there any precedents set in TS lore that might offer an alternative explanation for the one generally being accepted?

In our lore? Not that I know of.

The only explanation I have (aside from the Epignosis theory), is that the PSK intentionally skipped the nightkill in an effort to throw off pursuit of him. But, there are only a couple players I would not put that past, and neither of them are currently alive in this game.

Ricochet wrote:What tie?

Golden won as top wagon. Blind being on me and misfiring would have just dropped me lower by one vote.

If Pulled Up voted Golden (say... b24) then he further pushed Golden into getting lynched. If Pulled Up didn't vote on either wagons (say... Zebra or Matt), it didn't change anything.

As I just pointed out, Blind couldn't have misfired on Day 3. On Day 1, a civilian was lynched, so his range went up to +1. On Day 2, mafia was lynched, so his range would go back down to 0.

So on Day 3, his vote would have been accurate.

Ricochet wrote:

MetalMarsh wrote:Jay mentioned this before, and I agree with him (especially since he was the one who suggested it). Seaside checked the lynch, saw a number on you that was not 6 (so probably less than 6), and rather than assume all of the role possibilities, he assumed bad news.

On the other hand, Blind's vote should not have been randomized at that point, right? By my understanding, Blind's "range" should have been 0 on that day.

This is also true. Further evidence of not believing seaside really checked that Day or saw something on Jay and/or Diiny.

If Pulled Up and Blind's votes were both there, Golden still could have won the tie, right?

EBWOP:

Ricochet wrote:Plus, for the umpteenth time, I don't understand why seaside would suspect seeing anything on JJJ or Diiny, if one of them is supposed to be Blind and there were no drugs involved (because Night 2 was skipped). If I would have had that role (the song is probably my favorite TH one) and had checked Day 3 and saw that there was one vote less (Blind) and/or one vote more (Pulled Up), both not fitting a baddie's role (Drugs giving +2), I would be pretty bad at my role to leave breadcrumbs on this being suspicious. Nothing against seaside, but I think we're making stuff out of a legacy that he didn't really leave. Or, if he did, it's not a good one.

Jay mentioned this before, and I agree with him (especially since he was the one who suggested it). Seaside checked the lynch, saw a number on you that was not 6 (so probably less than 6), and rather than assume all of the role possibilities, he assumed bad news.

On the other hand, Blind's vote should not have been randomized at that point, right? By my understanding, Blind's "range" should have been 0 on that day.

Ricochet wrote:Also, after a good night's sleep, I realized my "Pulled Up could have had +1 on LC D2" logic was 3am shit tier, because Pulled Up only gets empowered by non-civ lynches, not by civ mislynches.

So that leaves us with two explanations: Blind is Diiny and there was no interference with the main wagons. JJJ (or Russ? ) is Blind and their vote fortunately stuck on LC. Put this in a vacuum and, yeah, it's a 50-50 between Diiny and JJJ. But add in some other cues for Diiny being bad (unlikelihood of him being mafia, his absence), compared to JJJ pretty much being Satan incarnate if he's bad, plus some other factors I can (questioning JJJ to good result) or can't be specific about, and I'm leaning Diiny is bad, JJJ is Blind.

I would agree with this in general though.

Ricochet wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:If The Great Curve is out there reading this, I suggest they use their one-time power today.

Also, I think someone claimed he was a terrorist, claimed to avert a catastrophe.

Wert zebra being Pulled Up, there is this post.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:^^^and this post came on Night 3, just after the lynch that seaside presumable "looked" at.

He could have instinctively asked for Great Curve to check what might happened after a Day phase in which Golden won a lynch with 6 votes, yet bea got killed with no votes. ... although it's a bit murky to understand why zebra would request vote manipulations to be checked, when what happened was more a thing of roles manipulation.

Ricochet wrote:Plus, for the umpteenth time, I don't understand why seaside would suspect seeing anything on JJJ or Diiny, if one of them is supposed to be Blind and there were no drugs involved (because Night 2 was skipped). If I would have had that role (the song is probably my favorite TH one) and had checked Day 3 and saw that there was one vote less (Blind) and/or one vote more (Pulled Up), both not fitting a baddie's role (Drugs giving +2), I would be pretty bad at my role to leave breadcrumbs on this being suspicious. Nothing against seaside, but I think we're making stuff out of a legacy that he didn't really leave. Or, if he did, it's not a good one.

Jay mentioned this before, and I agree with him (especially since he was the one who suggested it). Seaside checked the lynch, saw a number on you that was not 6 (so probably less than 6), and rather than assume all of the role possibilities, he assumed bad news.

On the other hand, Blind's vote should not have been randomized at that point, right? By my understanding, Blind's "range" should have been 0 on that day.

Ricochet wrote:Also, after a good night's sleep, I realized my "Pulled Up could have had +1 on LC D2" logic was 3am shit tier, because Pulled Up only gets empowered by non-civ lynches, not by civ mislynches.

So that leaves us with two explanations: Blind is Diiny and there was no interference with the main wagons. JJJ (or Russ? ) is Blind and their vote fortunately stuck on LC. Put this in a vacuum and, yeah, it's a 50-50 between Diiny and JJJ. But add in some other cues for Diiny being bad (unlikelihood of him being mafia, his absence), compared to JJJ pretty much being Satan incarnate if he's bad, plus some other factors I can (questioning JJJ to good result) or can't be specific about, and I'm leaning Diiny is bad, JJJ is Blind.

I would agree with this in general though.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I think you need more host posts about buildings and food.

I am currently located in a building.

I am currently located with food.

Also, I'm not pleased about the prospect of Russtifinko being mafia. He was my first suspect.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:This game has actually been going on since September 30th, if we include Day 0.

Shouldn't this be in pedantic pink?

If it was, then you'd be unable to respond to it. :P Actually that's not true.

Diiny wrote:I mean I'm waiting to do it because I don't want to fuck it up and I want to do it properly and not in bed at 2am; I understand what you mean.

Gotcha.

This game has actually been going on since September 30th, if we include Day 0.

Diiny wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Diiny wrote:I haven't got it in me to case Rico/Russ tonight but I still can't tear myself away from the thread. If you've any actually defensible shit to fling at me, now's the time.

I readily grant that the case against you is largely process of elimination right now. That's not something you can defend against -- and I'm sorry for that. The best thing you can do for yourself right now if you're town is convince me and others that someone else is what you're accused of being.

This is why I'm waiting to case Rico and Russ, I know that town's chances are based on me doing this to the best of my ability.

If Ricochet offers a case on you being SK, and you pick it apart and make a solid defense, where does that leave us?

This is a crucial situation that requires proaction. If you are not the SK (or mafia), defending yourself will not get either of them lynched.

^^^and this post came on Night 3, just after the lynch that seaside presumable "looked" at.

a2thezebra wrote:If The Great Curve is out there reading this, I suggest they use their one-time power today.

Also, I think someone claimed he was a terrorist, claimed to avert a catastrophe.

Wert zebra being Pulled Up, there is this post.

Diiny

I've run through the scenarios in my head. Basically what it comes down to is that one of either Diiny or Jay is Blind.

Here's a couple points why Diiny is likely the PSK.

1) As we all know, he missed Night 5 and Day 6, the only night that the Psycho Killer had the oppurtunity to kill, but didn't.

2) Day 7, Diiny votes for Jay. Jay looks like he's going to be lynched, but there's a very late push against seaside, and he's lynched instead. Diiny is one of the last players to switch from Jay to seaside. Jay was about to be lynched, but not only did he lose the pursuit at the last moment, players like Epignosis lost interest in lynching Jay for the time being. Night 7, the same player is targeted for nightkill by both the Psycho Killer and Mafia. The player is likely Blind. Looking at it in context, Jay is a likely kill-target because he wasn't lynched. It actually makes more sense for mafia to target Jay with a nightkill then for the PSK, but we just happen to know that they both targeted the same player.

Ricochet wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:And because I like voting early, JaggedJimmyJay.

You put Diiny bottom read and lynch priority. What's the hold up?

I told ya townies to stop fighting and focus on baddies.

Rico, it's not that simple. If you, Jay, and I are definitely civilians, then there's no question that Russti and Diiny are the last two baddies, and we have an easy lynch ahead of us.

You have to be considered in the mix whether you like it or not.

Also, Ricochet voted right off the bat today. That has me worried.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:And because I like voting early, JaggedJimmyJay.

You're going to understand why I pushed against you suddenly on Day 11 soon enough. If that has you perturbed, I urge you to take a step back and reconsider everything I did in that sequence.

Funnily enough, it has nothing to do with that. :P

I need a little time to think though. I just recalled the instance of seaside going after you, Diiny, and espers from early on, probably from his role power. There might be something there to clear one of you and Diiny as civilian, and even a very specific civilian role.

Two nights in a row that Take Me to the River failed to remove someone from the poll. That makes it more likely that it was Strawhenge.

And because I like voting early, JaggedJimmyJay.

Ricochet wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:(if you really insist, I received clearence to talk in more detail)

I could use a little of this juicy goss though. If you can help me to exonerate MM then I agree the suspect pool becomes exactly the size it must be for town to win. Try to share what you can without infringing upon your own desire for secrecy too much.

Maybe even give me a Top Secret Code to crack.

Naw, I checked the sentences I would post with the judges and they're good to go. It doesn't have to do with secrecy, either, because it stems from the game (lynch results, role interpretation), in this case.

I'd just like to ask MM first if he's ok with this.

I think this could be the civilians' last chance at a successful lynch, so all the cards on the table are fine with me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This is what my spew review had to say about Russ before the Bullzeye lynch. I'll check those interactions.

I've always said that Russ passes the evidence test without quite passing the eye test. His tone and language early in the game were consistent pings.

If I understand this correctly, you're saying that a quick look at Russtifinko looks bad, but further inspections shows a player who's been involved more than it appears?

Which test do you value more?


Linki: Oops I mean lynched. I've had a lot of typos this game. No I don't, but I believe he did post on Night 5, and I think that is the most solid evidence we have on any player being the SK. Not the only one necessarily, but the best one.

Ricochet wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Night 12 rainbow list - ordered by lynch priority.

Ricochet
Russtifinko
JaggedJimmyJay
DrWilgy
Diiny

Talk to me about Russ. What points at him not being a baddie? I really need the input on this.

Again his consistency. I don't see him as mafia because his participation has gone up as the mafia continued to get NK'd and while Bullzeye's participation has gone down.

I could give a better look at his content, but I was distracted by other things yesterday.

Night 12 rainbow list - ordered by lynch priority.

Ricochet
Russtifinko
JaggedJimmyJay
DrWilgy
Diiny

I won't forgive you Jay.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I do realize that part. I recall Epignosis suggesting that HBoy was mafia, and you agreeing it is possible.

But if you want the PSK to nightkill mafia instead of civilians, I think he'd be more likely to do so if he thought there were more mafia. Suggesting that HBoy was mafia would give him the idea (especially if he thinks you're a civilian) that mafia's numbers are actually dwindling, and that he still needs to kill civilians.

At that point in the game, the SK having only killed one guy that I thought seemed at all likely to be mafia was exactly the frustration I was expressing. That's not balanced, even then.

What's your point? Are you saying I made a boo boo or that I did something suspicious?

I think it's suspicious. I think you thought to stick to your read of HamburgerBoy rather than try to bait the Psycho Killer into a sense of urgency. I think this because I think there's chance you are the PSK, and you didn't think to bait yourself.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Another note from Day 5: Marsh had his vote on espers, who finished with 8 visible votes.

Devin finished with 6 visible votes.

Devin died. Chew on that as it pertains to your Marsh read.

Chewing away. What do you take away from this event?

I do realize that part. I recall Epignosis suggesting that HBoy was mafia, and you agreeing it is possible.

But if you want the PSK to nightkill mafia instead of civilians, I think he'd be more likely to do so if he thought there were more mafia. Suggesting that HBoy was mafia would give him the idea (especially if he thinks you're a civilian) that mafia's numbers are actually dwindling, and that he still needs to kill civilians.

Ricochet wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd rank the serial killer victims in likelihood to be mafia as follows:

1. RadicalFuzz
2. HamBurgerboy
3. Epignosis
4. FZ
5. Matt
6. Strawhenge
7. Golden

Dude, you said you read everything. Love for Sale is dead since N11.

Yeah.

And going back to the drugged Devin on Day 5, FZ. and Hamburgerboy cannot be mafia, because the only two unaccounted for mafia would have to have still been alive Night 4.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:If there is one area of hunting where I lack confidence, it's in identifying the SK. I don't have a great history for figuring out rogues, so I acknowledge that any read I provide is unlikely to account for the SK possibility a great deal because it just isn't my focus. Anyone out there is welcome to make him a priority if you think you have the skills to figure it out.

I'm going to write a Letter to the Serial Killer of my own, in memory of dear departed Choutas.

Dear serial killer,

You've been killing town reads all game long save perhaps for HamburgerBoy. You're going to need to stop doing that, not only for town's sake but also for your own. You're digging your own grave if you allow the mafia team to obtain a significant numbers advantage. Eventually they'll overwhelm you simply by virtue of voting advantage. So kill a mafia read already FFS.

Sincerely, JJJ

Hey Jay, when you wrote this letter to the PSK, why did you suggest that HBoy could be mafia?

Just realized something. If Drugs did effect the Devin lynch way back when, then HamburgerBoy must be civilian.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Note: Bullzeye's only semi-meaningful contribution beyond self-defense over the last few cycles of his lifespan was to consistently toss shade at Russ. It doesn't look like deliberate distancing to me -- it looks like forced b/s to satisfy people's demands for content. Russ was not an uncommon target for shade.

It was consistent with Bullzeye's prior material too.

And I can't really be 95% bad. It's either 100% or 0%. :P

Linki: Well you're suggesting a theory that satisfies your suspicion rather than one that seems probable.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Just one question:

Why are we so completely certain that this mislynch wasn't caused by Drugs on motel room and Blind on Marsh? I am being asked to trust a player that I felt was 95% bad last phase and also survived a lynch via shenanigans. Help me.

That's a complex scenario you've offered.

There's probably simpler ones.

Oh yeah, I didn't specify. I agree that Diiny is the SK. I think you and I aren't the only ones either. I just really hope he can be lynched easily. It's amazing how often independent LMS roles last in games on this site.

Ricochet wrote:Yeah, answering back to some of the questions posed on that EoD is meaningless now, at least for me. In hindsight, I also wished a baddie would have gotten hurt by these shenanigans.

The fact that WIlgy and Russ are hardly separable on three out of four baddie lynches is killing me right now. It really makes me wish the SK would show, at least once in this entire game, some anti-mafia moves (that we can know of or decipher, at least), even if eliminating the mafia could hurt his endgame chances. Alas, I suspect he'll off a civ, probably me.

Russ has been playing this game with a pretty consistent effort, and actually has been going stronger over these last few days. Do you think that is a sign of a baddie Russ?

This may sound like a weird observation on my part, but I had read Russ as bad all game up until Day 10 (I think), and his increase in activity happened right around the same time.

Ricochet wrote:Yeah, answering back to some of the questions posed on that EoD is meaningless now, at least for me. In hindsight, I also wished a baddie would have gotten hurt by these shenanigans.

The fact that WIlgy and Russ are hardly separable on three out of four baddie lynches is killing me right now. It really makes me wish the SK would show, at least once in this entire game, some anti-mafia moves (that we can know of or decipher, at least), even if eliminating the mafia could hurt his endgame chances. Alas, I suspect he'll off a civ, probably me.

Yeah I know.

Diiny looks awful during the EoD. Regardless of Jay's tunneling, he looks mighty civ to me. I know he didn't like my responses to him yesterday, but I was still trying to figure out how he was aligned.

I feel my probability of death tonight is pretty high though.

Ricochet wrote:Marsh, why did you vote motel, if you said, as far as I understand, that you'd vote Wilgy to not get lynched. Wilgy was leading by 2, motel had the same as you. How can you vote in interest of not reaching top wagon the weaker wagon (motel) rather than the stronger one (Wilgy), at that time? Can it be because you and WIlgy are connected?

I made a big mistake. I thought about voting for Wilgy, but I saw Russti's vote on motel room, and so I voted for him because again, I thought he had a chance at being the PSK.

I should have played it safe. Unfortunately, I was at a casino for the last 6 hours of the day phase, and didn't have the ability to respond to everything or even properly think about what I was doing. I made a ballsy move with my vote, and it backfired.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Wait, which Night are we talking here? Because on N7, a single player (the same one) survived a kill coming from two directions. I'm confused by this, in context of the discussion being about Night 7 and reading into Strawhenge's possible River moves.

I don't think Strawhenge's role, whatever it was, or anything else may have done behind the scenes had anything to do with the failed kills of Night 7. I do think that Strawhenge strongly believed he caused one of the failed attempts though, and that MM was the player implicated in his mind.

I rather regret mentioning Strawhenge at all when I mounted my cases, because now way too many people are wasting time talking about him when my cases were meant to be new content against MM.

That's exactly what I told you was going to happen Mr-Hashtag-Man.

Ricochet wrote:Also, you really suck at counting (more than I do), considering you're about to reach 9K, not 8.

That was the 8,000th post in this game thread. :P

Sorry motel room, and sorry everyone else. I voted motel room because I thought he was more likely to be the PSK than Diiny and DrWilgy.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I HATE SHENANIGANS

Bully you.