Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:I am not saying I think all inactives are civ, no. Let me give you a clear play out of Your statements in the time since I have returned MM...
First you come in with this pretty confident case...
Then you begin laying the groundwork for the idea that Night 8 was a missed kill...Metalmarsh89 wrote:Hedgeowl ISO for the win!!!!! (with lots of exclamations!) I'm just looking at interactions with/about Long Con and Black Rock.
Hedgeowl originally offers a no read of Long Con in response to Golden's question, with the reasoning that she can never tell very well with him. She also admitted to being sympathetic to LC for reasons that don't pertain to the game. This is very early in the game, so it's hard to tell if this indicates a baddie or civilian response. She did talk about SVS more in this post than LC, though Hedgeowl would later go on to vote for Long Con.
Still no read of LC here, and Hedgeowl states that Epignosis's comments about SVS are noteworthy (she likes them?).Hedgeowl wrote:Oh I am not saying that. Did I say that? I was commenting on the earlier discussion about newbies, which SVS and LC are not. I am sympathetic to LC because of Epi's accusation around the word "interesting" but that's more because I am someone who overuses this word in life. I do find SVS' defense interesting (!) however. I would not say I am ready to vote based on any of this yet though. Mostly, I think there been a lot of huffing and puffing and MP's redonkulous rainbow list aside ( ), not much noteworthy in 5 pages that took me too long to read, so I agree with Epi there. I will say so far he reads like civ Epi to me, and I can never tell very well with LC.Golden wrote:Hedgeowl - if several people ended up voting for LC or SVS today, would you consider that there seemed to be good reasons for that, or are you saying that you find the reasons to suspect LC and SVS unconvincing?
what are ISOs that everyone is mentioning? I assume not In Search Of...
Hedgeowl comments on Cobalt's vote, calling it unsurprising. This is Hedgeowl's first mention of Cobalt, and had not interacted with him before. Keep this in mind.Hedgeowl wrote:That was a bit of tongue and cheek humor. I did not think his rainbow list (with only 2 colors!) was super valuable to me at the time, but I thought it was funny of him to try. I am so rarely serious in my posts, so it sometimes causes confusion. I play mafia for the lulz and as a break from my crazy wonderful two year old when he is sleeping, so I am not as serious as the serious players, but I do enjoy the game.Sloonei wrote:I would add to Turnip's post that in Hedgeowl's third post, she seems to state that MP's rainbow list is something worth taking note of, but all she goes on to say is that it made her laugh.
I also don't want anyone to feel as if I am insulting your rainbow lists. They are new to me and I am just getting used to them, but have no issues with those who use them, as you know, an actual rainbow. I haven't decided how I feel about Grainbows yet though.
Ah, my bandwagon comment was in no way related to SVS or LC. They are both so slippery when bad that I often find I suspect them in every game just because, but struggle to really find a concrete reason beyond gut. This game so far, I am finding Epi's comments noteworthy regarding SVS, but also keeping in mind this dynamic between the two is not new. As for LC I still don't know, but I have 3 more pages to read.Golden wrote:Yes, TH, that's exactly what I was trying to do. I felt like Hedgeowl's statement was definitely something that could be referred back to later to defend LC or SVS, and I didn't want to allow it to be used that way. I could definitely see a scenario where Hedgeowl is in a team with LC or SVS and was hoping to have some else run with her comment and imply that LC or SVS were being bandwagoned.
Also, her response question 'Did I say that?' - was a noteworthy response to me.
How is it sloppy of me? What exactly did I say that you find to be mafia excuse speak? That I dont want to target newbies? Also, I can't decide if I am offended or not if it is sloppy mafia playing.Neverwhere wrote:I'm with Turnip Head on this one. I got so caught up focusing on the whole Epi - Lc - SVS talk I forgot about the posts Hedgeowl had made. They read really scummy to me too. A lot of mafia excuse speak. If Hedge is bad, it seems kind of sloppy of her....
At this point she's pinging me the most for a day 1 vote.
I am reading Gumshoe as civvie for now.
TH, you have seriously played mafia with me enough to know that I am very wary of bandwagons or what I perceive to be bandwagons and have used my votes before to actively save people I think are civvies. I dont see how that is any different for me this game.Turnip Head wrote:It just seems so out of place in that post. And I see what you're saying, she could refer back to that remark to preemptively counter any bandwagons she doesn't like. It's like that sentence came from the future and landed in Hedgeowl's post.Golden wrote:Yes, TH, that's exactly what I was trying to do. I felt like Hedgeowl's statement was definitely something that could be referred back to later to defend LC or SVS, and I didn't want to allow it to be used that way. I could definitely see a scenario where Hedgeowl is in a team with LC or SVS and was hoping to have some else run with her comment and imply that LC or SVS were being bandwagoned.
Hedgeowl places her vote on Day 1 in the final minutes.Hedgeowl wrote:Alright, I just finished catching up and am tired. I am really uncertain as to my suspicions currently, but would like to look back at those that jumped on board other people's suspicions and voted as a result. I am not super surprised at Cobalt's vote, but dont know how serious to take it given his earlier comments. MM as well need to reread. I will be interested in seeing how others vote an will plan to vote tomorrow evening hopefully.
Also, I find myself identifying with TGG description of playstyle as well. Rings true for me too.
Night y'all.
This vote looks good at first, because it was a vote on LC to tie him with SVS for the lead (I think). But not long after, LC swoops in to put SVS ahead. Sure LC may have voted for self-preservation, but looking at Hedgeowl's vote, I don't think it's as sincere as it seems. I understand backing off of SVS, but Hedgeowl had offered no suspicion of LC to this point. She offered no read of him at one point, and sympathized with him in another post. She hadn't stated a suspicion of Cobalt either, but at from her posts, I believe she should have been more prone to vote Cobalt.Hedgeowl wrote:Ugh, I am like 5 pages behind, but I don't want SvS to go down on a self vote. Voting LC because between him and Cobalt I feel more suspicious of him, but very weak still.
Linki no idea what is going on in the vote lol.
This move may have a calculated one to give Hedgeowl a good look.
Hedgeowl comments on Day 2 that she doesn't like Cobalt's antics, but doesn't seem to want to touch the Cobalt-LC relationship.
Hedgeowl wrote:I don't like the taunting Cobalt trying to get us to vote him now. Claiming that ability after someone guessed it seems like what you did I a game LC when Juliets said you were indy and you weren't.
I am almost inclined to leave the LC-Cobalt thing for another day, but there have been so many questions raised between these two. I still have 4-5 pages to read before the last lynch,
Day4, Hedgeowl states she is still catching up, and still plans to read about the LC-Cobalt relationship. She includes that she is finding LC increasingly less suspicious as she goes.
The very next day, Hedgeowl reads LC as a frustrated civ, but a civilian nonetheless.Hedgeowl wrote:Ok, still several pages to go before I am fully caught up. Honestly sloonei those lyrics are not subtle in the least. Maybe someone is super ballsy and confidant in their gut reads, but it seems extreme to write a whole song about Nutella if you don't really think she's bad. Either way very fun song writing there! I def don't think we should take the word of night post though, because there is no guarantee they are civ I would assume. I do however think it worthwhile to examine Nutellas posts, votes etc. just in case. No reason we shouldn't all get some scrutiny.
I also need to do some rereads of LC-Cobalt to get a better handle on that currently. I am still suspicious of LC, but less so the more I get caught up.
fuckin wifi signal..posting now I hope.
But 20 minutes later, Hedgeowl backtracks and votes LC. LC was lynched this day, but he held a 10-6 lead over G-Man at the time of her vote. That's not insurmountable, but still a wide margin, giving her vote less credit.Hedgeowl wrote:I was also curious about this and thought it must have been something I missed. I've been rereading LC's posts, which have a lot of exchange with Golden, so surprised to see the Epi vote. I am still finishing them, but more and more LC is reading as frustrated civ to me. I need to read more about others thoughts on his connections to Tiny, and sig's posts in light of his lynch. I never thought the he killed Epi theory as a valid one. As BR commented I believe, it just doesn't seem like LC's style.Neverwhere wrote:Very good point. Also...like I said before. Cobalt out of nowhere says he's 100% sure of Epi being bad and Golden suddenly just votes for him also.FZ. wrote:Scotty, no, I'm not sure that corruption means the player will change to bad, but I want to be sure about this, because if any of us were bad and could recruit or something of the sort, we'd take the most trusted player in the game. Right now, that's obviously Sloonei. So unless someone saved him, or he has a power to survive a NK on his own, I would be quite worried.
As for Golden voting Epi, that's a very weird choice, and I think we should think about why it's there. I doubt he was forced to do it, because Epig was not a high candidate for a lynch, so why waste it on him. So it seems he voted Epi for a good reason, at least to him.
Oh, and Neverwhere just reminded me about Splints.
Splints, of course civvies hesitate, but I think your choices for baddies are too easy. I think Bubbles is not bad, and based on his recent posts, I don't see Bass as bad either. I could be wrong of course, but it seems as if you chose the easy targets.
Hedgeowl comments on BR. Not much of a comment, just says she doesn't believe she would defend LC being his spouse.Hedgeowl wrote:Ok, I am making a mess of those spoiler and quotes tags, so will have to get someone to explain it to me later. I went back and read the cases on sig and LC in light of sig's posts and it doesn't look good. I dont know sig as a player, so I cant tell if he would defend a teammate so often, but it's not how I usually like to play as a baddie. However, with such early suspicion of LC it may have forced the team to go on the defensive. I dislike that he isnt here to defend himself, but reading through his posts he did have quite a lot of opportunity this game. I agree with Epi and Sloonei's assessments and will vote LC.
Votes Long Con
LInki Gman are you trying to tempt me to vote for you?
On Day 7, the day BR was lynched, Hedgeowl votes nutella, but does comment after the lynch about BR, and directs attention towards nutella.Hedgeowl wrote:Welcome JJJ and SVS! Glad to have you, even though I have been super absent this game. So far in catch-up I have only read this page, so my plan is to vote now since they are changeable and then continue to catch up this evening while also during other things.
I obviously need to catch-up more on the BR case because I just havent been present enough to understand it beyond that she defended LC early on. Of all the people to get caught in a defense of LC, I would think someone's spouse would be the one. If they had been on a team, I think it less likely she would have defended him honestly. Now, I also felt that he wouldn't be the kind of player to go after Epi on Day 1, but didn't mean I didn't vote for him with two mafia teams.
This is Hedgeowl's most recent post, coming during Night 7. This is the part I find most suspicious. Hedgeowl said she was going out of town for 10 days, but look at the other parts of this scenario.Hedgeowl wrote:Corrupted, so this fits with the LC teammate theory since that's the team with 3. It wouldn't be crazy of them to recruit BR either. Well done, those who sniffed her out. I can take no credt having minimally participated in this lynch as it is. I am interested in the fact that nutella did not vote. JJJ, scotty, and others what do you think of nutella in light of BR's flip, is she the next place to look or are others still suspect.
Lol Cobalt, yeah no one thinks your LC's teammate now I think. But could there be more than one corrupted teammate...
- - Black Rock is lynched Day 7, and Team Wildhorn missed the Night 8 kill.
- Black Rock and Long Con have both been lynched, possibly disheartening a mafia team to have multiple excellent teammates go down.
- Hedgeowl says she will be out of town and will have internet, but has not posted since then.Hedgeowl wrote:I officially endorse your analysis, although that of course means diddlysquat. I am just too busy irl and at night so tired that it's no longer fun to catch up constantly, so eventually I give up and go to sleep. I am going on vacation for 10 days tomorrow in rural Wisconsin. I have been told we have internet, but will be with a ton of family. Granted my participation cant get much worse at this point. As for suspects, I still have nutella on my list, but saw JJJ say she defended herself well, so need to check that out. Otherwise, I havent taken the time to anayze the votes as I like to do, not that we have lynched several baddies, but thats where I like to start in my analsysis usually.Scotty wrote:Grr I just did a whole analysis post about Hedgeowl and it got deleted. I'm too tired to do it again.
It's ok though, because here's the short gist of her:
-She has only 37 posts, which is quite minimal for someone still [actively] playing the game.
-but she has been constantly "catching up". I legit feel her frustration of continually having to comb through 10 pages every day for the past few gamedays, and how she's felt absent.
-She has voted not terribly so far. She did miss Day 2 vote, even though she was around and could have voted. I don't think it's that suspicious, since she picked it back up every day thereafter (except for the Tiny night). She missed a few night polls as well, so this also seems like a genuine busy-ness. Her vote off the G-man lynch felt justified with her self-proclaimed ideology of players bandwagoning only if they has a reason.
-I feel like she reads as a backdoor civ- she hasn't shared a lot of original suspicions, but also doesn't always go with the crowd on voting.
Hedge, I hope as the thread gets lighter that you come around more.
Can you give me 3 people you might suspect right now and maybe a little bit why?
I think Hedgeowl could be a member of Team Wildhorn.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I do not. Well I will admit I could be wrong, but, for example, SVS has voted nijuu each of the last three days (including very early on today) which does line up with Jekyll and Hyde's role, and with the way things look, makes nijuu a likely target for J&H. I won't dismiss the TinyBubbles being Jekyll theory, because I understand that if it's true, someone else must be the real Sweeney Todd, and that is still a possibility. I just think that, regardless of my early theory of the LC/TB relationship, that TinyBubbles is a civilian. Also of note, Sweeney Todd gets one nightkill in the game. The fact that G-Man was not nightkilled before his lynch leads me to believe that Sweeney Todd is either an inactive player, or a relatively new player like TinyBubbles who may not feel comfortable pulling the trigger on a nightkill.Golden wrote:Are you suggesting that you do not believe bubbles is jekyll? I've been trying to figure this one out for ages.Metalmarsh89 wrote:What confuses me more about Team Wildhorn's missed kills is that I believe that it seems to me that Jekyll & Hyde has still been targeting players.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, the attempt to nightkill Bass on Night 5 is confusing. I don't think that Team Wildhorn could kill on odd nights.
All of the baddies' kills so far have had some obvious flavor to them. Thus, I am more inclined to believe that the kill of Scotty did not come from a baddie team, nor may have it even come from another player. It could even have been role-related on his part.Golden wrote:I am very much liking the cases MM and Epi have brought on hedgeowl.
If I understand MM correctly, hedge could not be jekyll? Because jekyll is active?
In which case, it should also be possible to test if hedge is B & C by way of checking when she left and not been back since. (I tend to think the unknown force could be Mr Hyde? So I'm not assuming wildhorn missed a kill - but I could well be wrong about that, I understand why 'unknown force' might sound more like a civilian ninja or independent role).
Not to discredit DF too much, but TGG left on weird terms, and may even had suggested to his teammates to throw him under the bus.Golden wrote:I just read DF back, and I no longer think he could be on team webber. He was one of the first people to agree with my case on TGG, and was pretty consistent about it. Even before G-Man subbed in.
I also do not think he could be on team wildhorn with either FS or hedge, because those happen to have been two of his more consistent suspects. His voting for BR looks good too. I think he could be on team wildhorn, but I'd have him below splints and hedge on my radar, and I'm trying to figure out who is on team webber! Where are Webber and the Phantom hiding?
Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:Then you voted hedge. After her flip you said:
You didn't feel super compelled by it? Really? Despite coming in all, Hedge ISO for the win! Exclamation point! Could have fooled me. And you here make it look like you were trying to lure out mafia members, but it seems a foolish plan to me to put a vote on someone you apparently weren't super compelled to believe was bad and we're just using as mafia bait.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I didn't feel super compelled by the case, but there were couple things that I saw. I'll admit that I did try to fit it all into my theory.
But this game has fallen into a rut, and I think you will have noticed it too, and I was just looking for something to spark discussion. Anything. I thought about looking at Team Webber, who has been more active, but I figured it would be easier to look at Team Wildhorn, and see how the active member(s) of Team Webber respond.
Nobody was posting yesterday. Jay appeared to be silenced, so I decided to try and throw some ideas out to spearhead discussion. I thought about the possibilities, and decided to go after Team Wildhorn, mainly because of the theory I came up with. If I look at potential Team Webber players first, then we end up with a couple inactive Wildhorn members who would be difficult to find. If I went after potential Wildhorn members first, Webber has clearly been the more active team (they haven't missed a nightkill), and so it would be easier to lure them out.
Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:Convenient. You find everyone who voted the same way you did as probably bad. But not you, oh no, nothing to see here, move along folks.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Pretty much everyone that came in and stated "Wowie, these cases are so compelling, I can't even decide who to vote for between splints and Hedgeowl!"JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A few people joined your cause soon after you mounted the case. Who among them do you feel was the least sincere in doing so? If you're town (or even anti-town on a team other than Windhorn), then someone out there capitalized on you being wrong.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I didn't feel super compelled by the case, but there were couple things that I saw. I'll admit that I did try to fit it all into my theory.
But this game has fallen into a rut, and I think you will have noticed it too, and I was just looking for something to spark discussion. Anything. I thought about looking at Team Webber, who has been more active, but I figured it would be easier to look at Team Wildhorn, and see how the active member(s) of Team Webber respond.
I was surprised to see nutella claim that she and Hedgeowl were on Team Wildhorn with certainty. I didn't know there was reason to believe fingersplints was on that team. And then nutella didn't even vote.
Spacedaisy, well you already pointed her comments out. She just hopped in the game, and that post was her only post in the last 30 hours.
I don't see any reason to suspect Golden. Or rather, I see plenty of reason not to suspect Golden, and I haven't bothered considering him as a mafia.
Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:Then there is this little gem:
Nice how you set me up to take the fall for what was going to come. You set the stage for exactly what you knew was going to happen, and then when it did, you have been dancing around like it proved something. Good luck explaining your way out of it when I flip civ.Metalmarsh89 wrote:One important thing I intentionally left out of my original theory of Team Wildhorn that no one caught: I did not include any players that replaced in later in the game. This would include you JJJ, Spacedaisy, and SVS, but you were silenced, SVS wasn't around all day, but then there is Spacedaisy, who stated that the cases were "pretty compelling". If there's a nightkill tonight, I'd bet it's coming from her.
Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:Finally, you comment again on your case on Hedge. You "take responsibility" but at the same time you make the outlandish claim you were just hoping someone would call you out on it as bullshit, that you act as if you knew it was, but if that were the case why would you have voted for her? This makes no sense if you are civ MM, none.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Unless there's anything else you wish to talk about Golden, I don't plan on doing any more game-related stuff this night phase. I'll be gone all day tomorrow camping, so I'll just hold off until Sunday if I'm still alive and not silenced.
JJJ was right though. I forced some points on the Hedgeowl case, so I take full responsibility for her lynch. I was just hoping someone would come in and tell me it was bullshit. Nobody did. My apologies to Hedgeowl.
Earlier you said it was foolish. Now you say it is not civilian (and thus mafia) behavior. Does mafia do foolish things?
Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:Now lastly, regarding this theory of yours that there is a difference in the night kills, I see a major flaw with this. Night 2, a chandelier. Night 4, a chandelier. Night 6, a chandelier. Night 8, what do you know? A chandelier... It looks like the same team to me MM, and the only reason I can think you want to make something that seems so blatantly obvious to me look like something other than what it most likely was, is because you want to direct attention to inactives, specifically, inactives who have recently been replaced. You set the stage, giving us the narrative before it happened. I can see through it because I recognize I'm the pawn in your power play here. I am civ, lunching me will prove that. And I have yelled loud enough that I hope should they be foolish enough to follow you in this bid to lynch me, that they will at least be convinced by my flip to lynch you next. You are bad. My vote will almost certainly remain where it is until the poll ends. I hope others will see through you as well.
And for the record, you currently have one suspicion: me. You did not call me suspicious at all until I called you as suspicious. You have gone through a lot of effort to paint me as mafia and make me look bad, but your efforts are based on an OMGUS because you believe I set you up yesterday.