Search found 959 matches

by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:33 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

motel room
by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Diiny wrote:Were you scoring how J made you out to look vs how you think you objectively look in the thread with that grading system MM?
Yes. I graded it because Jay brought every single interaction with Bullzeye to the table, and explained them all as indicative as me being mafia. I'm not Bullzeye's teammate, my interactions with MacDougall speak the opposite, and I believe he pushed some points beyond reason.

I didn't grade the SK case, no. Jay didn't like it, and it was a little silly of me.

I don't like that Jay offered me as the only lynch option today. I know this is hypocritical, because I haven't offered anyone, but I'm in a quandary because my top suspect was killed off and I'm defending from a thousand missiles.

My vote will likely go to Wilgy because I know I don' want to be lynched. I'm aslo on the road so won't be around much.

Linki: I would go Diiny. Motel room next. But i cant remember much more to them other than their not posting Night 5 atm.
by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Considering Metalmarsh89 as a Psycho Killer candidate:
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
motel room wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Not surprised with any of that.
Two SK kills, no nightkill?
You heard me.
You don't say. :ponder:
MM pokes in on a SK-relevant conversation without saying anything.

I thought Epignosis was the PSK at the time.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Matt F wrote:No MM, I wasn't lynched, not sure what you're getting at?

Again, it could be a coincidence that he made that poster about me, but I truly believe he was a part of the challenge, and IF he was a part of the challenge, then he definitely won because the other challenger DID NOT win.

Cue to the SK getting two NK's and bada boom...
How do we know the "other" challenger did not win? How do we know some other player (from the Syndicate) did not perform their job better, and is the SK?
Contests Matt's Mac-as-SK theory by asking a question implying it could be someone else (without actually naming anyone who might have "performed their job better").

If you're suggesting that I could have been the other challenger and won, check out my Day 4 posts (presumably when the contest happened). I won't win any contests with those.

And reading Matt's original post here, he implied that he was the Syndicate challenger and lost. Then again, I'm from RYM, so that doesn't say anything. Still, I have not been involved in any contests.

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Matt F wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Matt F wrote:No MM, I wasn't lynched, not sure what you're getting at?

Again, it could be a coincidence that he made that poster about me, but I truly believe he was a part of the challenge, and IF he was a part of the challenge, then he definitely won because the other challenger DID NOT win.

Cue to the SK getting two NK's and bada boom...
How do we know the "other" challenger did not win? How do we know some other player (from the Syndicate) did not perform their job better, and is the SK?
I'm not completely sure, I just have a really good feeling that the other challenger didn't win.

Yeah, not sure, but let's lynch Mac and see if I'm wrong.
I'm not opposed to that.
Matt states some uncertainties about his Mac-as-SK read but still pushes his lynch "to see if he's wrong". MM suggests he is "not opposed" despite his prior contesting of the theory.

This statement was in response to lynching MacDougall. I was not opposed to doing that.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MacDougall wrote:Haven't put much thought into who the SK is tbh but if we have everyone on board tracking the SK this could be fun. You could trust almost all the scum hunting done since the Mafia won't actually need to bullshit about who they think is the SK! Can trust almost everything at face value.

Day 5 - Hunt for Psycho Killer.

Let's look at some ISO's and start with people who have mentioned the psycho killer role. Rogue's love talking about their role.

From there we can look at interractions with the people SK has killed.
That's a pretty mighty generalization. But still, good plan. I'll go ahead and add you to the top of the "talked about Psycho Kiler" list.
MM is incredulous about Mac's stated strategy for hunting the SK but still calls it a "good plan". As basic as it might seem -- "rogues love to talk about their role" really is a proven thing in my experience. For some reason many self-aligned players just can't resist the need to involve their own role in discussion even when it doesn't need to be there. I've seen it multiple times. Mac may have been mafia, but I think he was being serious here.

That comment was tongue-in-cheek, in that I was calling out MacDougall for doing the thing he suspected other players of doing. He wanted to look for players who were talking about the PSK, and I pointed out that he was one of the primary players doing that.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
sig wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
sig wrote:
The Day is 5 the time is 10:26 EST
Attempt 1: I tried to leave the house to be bitten by a rattlesnake I know the the snake will know I deserve to die. The front door is locked and the parents won't let me out so I went to my room built a rope using my boy scout skills out of my bed sheets and grappled out the window, down the wall in an attempt to find a rattlesnake. I've safely gotten out the window without falling to my death or my "rope" breaking looks like Boy scouts did teach me something and will begin my search for a rattlesnake in the concrete jungle of Philadelphia after this post. Hopefully it will realize I deserve to die then using it's magic snake powers like in Jungle Book convince y'all to vote for me.
What the hell are these posts? You were already punished to desire death. I'm not seeing any second challenger in the roles. Unless the power absorber really exists. It can't be the Mafia, because Sorsha was lynched.
I deserve to die for not explaining why I wrote such things, I guess you're just going to have to guess though.

I find the argument for Epi being the SK to have some good points, after considering the Mac Sk theory I'm not as confident in it.

Choutus why am I red on your list?

I'm leaning to an Epi vote today especially with the FZ killing it isn't looking good for him. I will need to look over Devin again I know he was second place yesterday and had been gaining attention for awhile.
Oh?

I would imagine one person here knows for certain that I am not the Psycho Killer. :)
That's a loaded comment Epignosis. :)
I think this post might have temporarily sent Epi into hunting MM as a SK candidate, and it's one that makes me suspicious too. Epi made a frank statement with pretty obvious implications, and MM felt the need to butt in and say this. I don't understand what interest MM would have in making this post unless he felt personally affected by Epi's comment. I asked him what this post was about at the time and he responded as follows:

Again, it was from the previous post that I suspected Epignosis as the PSK. I made this post because of what I thought that he was.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:That's a loaded comment Epignosis. :)
What do you mean?
- Epignosis could be bluffing.
- If he is not, he could be implying that the real Psycho Killer knows who he/she are, and that Epignosis is not he/she.
- He could also be implying that another player knows what Epignosis's role is for whatever reason, and thus cannot be Psycho Killer.
- He could just be saying that he knows he is not Psycho Killer in a roundabout way.

Some of these ideas take the discussion to areas that are OB. Epignosis dropped a lot of implications with a single statement.

Here's another theory I would like to introduce. Epignosis loves revenge. He will exact revenge for not only himself, but for teammates as well, and I have been a victim of this. Now, in Recruitment Mafia, Golden "got Epignosis nightkilled by mafia" very early in that game. As an act of vengeance, Epignosis would return the favor and nightkill Golden.
MM expanded on his post by stating the obvious in four separate bullets. He called Epi's claim "loaded" which is mildly accusatory, but the reasons given to describe it as "loaded" can be applied to nearly any role-relevant post in any game ever. MM's response to Epi smelled to me like someone dipping his toes into waters that he didn't need to be exploring and now the smell has become more potent with time and evidence. I think it might be self-revealing.

You asked for the reasons, and I gave you the reasons. I didn't say it at the time, but I thought Epignosis was the PSK, and at times, I was poking him to see how he responded.

I don't understand your accusation. I was correct in calling it a loaded statement. Even if it can be applied to other similar comments, this is more crucial since we're talking about a Psyhco Serial Killer, so I think you're undervaluing the importance of that.


Orange: MM introduces a theory to associate Epignosis with the SK role -- suggests it was an "act of vengeance" against Golden to kill him based on what happened (or rather did not happen) in Recruitment IV. This seems like a dubious premise to me: that Epi would favor an emotional kill choice over a strategic kill choice. He strikes me as the opposite sort. Anyone else is welcome to contest that.

The main reason I suggested this theory is that in a game several months ago, Epignosis was a baddie, and Black Rock was his partner. In a couple games previous to that, I was mafia, and had twice killed Black Rock on Night 1. Epignosis asked her who she wanted to nightkill, she listed my name for that reason, and Epignosis went through with it.

This theory is kinda moot though, because the Recruitment thing turned out to be incorrect assumption on my part.

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:And since I brought it up earlier:

To anyone here who has hosted me, do I miss PMs?
No. I think Jay would have a low-posting game before you would miss a PM or lynch-vote.

Linki: Mac, Epignosis would still send a PM in saying he wouldn't kill if he is the PSK.
MM contests Mac's most absurd Epi-as-SK assertion with a point that would actually seem to support it. Sending in a declined attempt is logistically the same thing as missing the attempt. Illogical application of SK hunting/defending.

I wasn't contesting his theory though. I was just being pedantic about it. My point was that if you have a night action, and you choose not to use it, you would have to send a PM to the host saying such if you don't want your participation score to potentially get dinged. So I was saying that sending in a Pass is different than missing a PM.

And no, that is not illogical application of such a role. Imagine you can nightkill every night, but choose to skip Night 2, 4, and 6. The civilians would be lulled into a false sense of security, and BAM, you kill someone Night 8. You do sacrifice some nightkills in the process, but depending on how things are progressing, this can insight panic in the thread. I guess you could call it a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

But I still had another theory at the time about the PSK, which I thought was applicable. That theory has been proven incorrect though.

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I like my theory about the PSK better.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Maybe he has the option to nightkill twice in one night but must forgo a nightkill the following night.
Important moment in which MM promotes a theory about the SK's lack of kill attempt on Night 5 alternative to Epi's theory about who did not post. He has since reverted to Epi's theory, which would seemingly exonerate MM.

Yes, my theory was that the PSK could nightkill twice on one night, and forfeit his following nightkill clearly that was incorrect.

I have a new theory now that the PSK can nightkill twice on one night if he wants to, but the odds of his targets dying is reduced to 50%. On nights when the PsychoKiller nightkills twice, he is 4 for 6. On nights he nightkills one player, he is 3 for 4, the one unsuccessful attempt coming on Night 7 against the same player that mafia targeted.

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oh really?
Epignosis wrote:No. I think MacDougall is a co-conspirator with Long Con. I don't think serial killers can be caught in the first half of a game outside of luck, so I don't bother hunting them until Mafia are eliminated.
Are you sure you're not the PSK?
Epi started pursuing MM as a SK propsect on Day 6 and one of MM's responses was this. He only complained about Epi's point of focus, not his actual read, and then OMGUSed. Weak.

Again, I thought Epignosis was the PSK. This was not a sudden OMGUS, even if it looked like one. Also, like the case with Strawhenge, I can't address a read that doesn't have anything to back it up. Considering this whole interaction with Epignosis Jay, I think it's mighty inconsistent of you to bring up just a single point from that whole discussion, misrepresent my responses, and call it weak. My responses to Epignosis were spot-on, and Epignosis later retreated and acknowledged this. You also failed to address that Epignosis absolved his read of me being the PSK after the interaction for various reasons.

I looked at the point of focus, because I felt the Epignosis was trying to frame me for the role that he was. Epignosis clearly did not think I was mafia, and later backed off of the PSK read (as you may notice).

Epignosis's targeting of me was inconsistent with his strategy and his intelligence, as I continually pointed out. He knew this, and as we know now, his attempts were to see how other players responded to it.

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Strawhenge wrote:@ mo-ro: The more I look at his voting patterns, and the more I think about classic SK behaviors, I'm thinking Psycho Killer. But there's no way to be sure. I'm just more sure that he's anti-town.
I just find it amazing that you came upon this realization at the exact same time that Epignosis did. The same explanation. The same conclusion. The same thought process.

I don't find your suspicion sincere at all.

And, @ Epignosis. Let me ask you again. I had the chance to lynch JaggedJimmyJay on Day 7, but I moved my vote to seaside instead. If I am the PSK, does this seem like a logical move to you?
Strawhenge (Psycho Killer victim) was getting into the heat of his anti-MM crusade here and MM discredited his entire attack merely because it came at the same time as Epignosis's (Psycho Killer victim) attack.

Strawhenge mimicked Epignosis's case (which Epignosis later reversed). How is this behavior from Strawhenge a good look to you?

Then he asked a ridiculous question to Epi to promote himself as a non-SK candidate. The simple answer is: yes, MM, it seems perfectly logical for you to help lynch seaside on Day 7 and leave me as the odds-on favorite to be lynched right after him. Two for the price of one. I was able to regain my footing, but you didn't know that then.

This question is not ridiculous JaggedJimmyJay. Epignosis made the exact same response later on to being accused of being PSK (to which no beef was attributed). Anyway, you are the most vocal and active participant in this game, and you were on the chopping block on Day 7. I was the first one to move my vote from you to seaside after Epignosis did. The fact that I moved my vote, and the timing of my vote, should be a good look for me, but you're calling it ridiculous. :disappoint:

No, you weren't the odds-on favorite to get lynched next. Even if you put hindsight aside.

This is the point in the game where I think the MM-as-SK case starts to become truly compelling.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here is our conversation from when you first explained why you thought I am the PSK.

You start out with an explanation of why I am the PSK. I explain to you that your actions are not in the greatest civilian interest. I also believe that you know this already. After this statement I make to you, your response continue to get shorter and shorter to the questions I ask, noticably after the point where I suggest that you are the serial killer and why you are. You think I'm the PSK, don't you? You want me to be lynched for it don't you? Why would you not explain why "my action makes sense for a serial killer" when I ask?

Anyways, as I've stated before, it is in the civilian interest to lynch mafia today to skip the night phase. Mafia will get the chance to kill tonight because of the failed kill last night (unless I misunderstand Life during Wartime). I believe you know this, and you are trying to get me lynched today because of this. You have offered no argument that I am mafia to this point, so you don't believe I am mafia. This move only makes sense to me from a PSK Epignosis, and that is what I believe you are.
Here's MM's fullest rebuttal/OMGUS to Epi in the SK debate they were having. He gripes about Epi's responses getting "shorter and shorter" (this is Epi we're talking about here) and lacking in extensive explanation (this is Epi we're talking about here). Nothing in this post is inspiring or even sensible.

How is this not sensible? Not only did his responses get shorter and shorter, but they were getting less-enthusiastic, and he was backpedaling. Again, Epignosis pointed out that it was a gambit later, so his sincerity is doubtful.

I realize that Epignosis has been NK'd by the PSK so he cannot be that role now, but I was pretty certain that he was at the time, and even before then. I've already pointed out above some of the previous instances of me suspecting Epignosis, even if I didn't pursue it until he made a move.


MM again insists that his move from a JJJ vote to a seaside vote on Day was not SK-compatible (absolutely false) and then pushes the agenda that a lynch of a mafia player is the higher priority because of the potential to skip a night phase. That is itself a fair perspective, but look at where he develops from that: "Epi is trying to get me lynched without calling me a mafia read. This means he's the SK."

I disagree about the Jay--->seaside vote, but I already explained this.

What?

Why doesn't this make sense for a mafia Epi who is just trying to generate a mislynch? Why doesn't it make sense for a town Epi who believes the SK is the eminent threat of the day and is trying to get his top SK read lynched? How can we make the immediate jump to "Epi is the SK" from this? The thought process makes no sense to me, and it just reads as total OMGUS.

I saw plenty of reason to exonerate Epignosis as mafia. Also, I know I'm not the PSK, so my actions were made with that in mind. Again, my suspicion of Epignosis came as early as Night 4. This was not an immediate jump to Epignosis being the PSK.

It is important to state that later Epi clarified his move against MM as a SK candidate was a gambit to expose people who'd latch on. That revelatory post follows:
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:So what I have learned by coming out of the blue and calling MM the Psycho Killer is that two people were eager to jump on that and lynch him for no stated reason:

Metalmarsh89
3
Epignosis (4), Strawhenge (6), TheFloyd73 (8)
17%

Regardless of whether MM is PK (and I don't really think he is, for a reason obvious to me), it's clear that Mammaries Can't Wait is still alive (it is October and I was wearing a pink shirt today, after all), and lynching Mafia should be top priority, which would deprive PK of his deadmaking services yet again.

Given that Long Con tried to pull this very thing Day 2 (or, rather, what looks like this very thing), I figure no one would expect me to do it. So I did. :dark:

Plus football got boring as hell last night. :disappoint:
The highighted portion reveals that Epi didn't think MM is the SK for a "reason obvious to him". He's likely referring to the Night 5 scenario in which there was no kill attempt and MM had numerous posts -- implying he didn't miss a PM. I think there's good reason to believe Epi's ploy was correctly placed, even if by accident, and I frankly think MM handled it poorly. If one has absolute trust in the Night 5 theory Epi proposed then there you go, but that's a dangerous proposition -- particularly when MM himself proposed an alternative.

Actually, Epignosis' theory is very probable, as I believe anyone can admit. I was latching on to my theory because I proposed it.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Epignosis proposed that we should search for the PSK today.

I disagree. I think we should put drop the anchor on this mafia team if we can.
Day 9 priorities are still mafia-centric emerging from the Floyd lynch.

3 dead mafia in 3 days. I felt like that was the best time to get after it, even if I failed in that department.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Because I am wary of him after the potential "slip". I don't think it was a slip, but I won't and can't ignore it.

Linki: Epignosis is still my #1 PSK suspish.
Still suspects Epi heavily as the SK even in light of Epi revealing his ruse.

Epignosis did a similar thing Long Con did on Day 1 and even admitted it. I think that was deserving of suspicion.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:You can't "dismiss" him as civilian?

If you're town that's valuable information.
If you're scum you already knew that.
If you're SK his allegiance is mostly irrelevant to you.

Your statement sounds like it originates from the third viewpoint.
Again, you missed the point of my post, and even every piece of my post. Before I said we can't dismiss him as civilian, I acknowledged that it was a favorable look for him. Meta is (typically) important for reading a player, but it should not be the soul method for reading a player.

That's now twice you've misinterpreted my posts.
Fuzz associated MM with the SK role on Day 10 and MM responded with accusations of misinterpretation. I do think the point he made about Choutas looked fake though (that Choutas's self-meta was a good look but couldn't exonerate him).
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I don't really understand why my vote would look SKish. I can understand it coming from a mafia perspective, but an SK doesn't give a damn who gets killed/lynched as long as it ain't him. If anything, at this point in the game, the SK will probably want to lynch mafia, and be more apt to behave like a civilian.
MM again pushes a perspective that is nonsense. A SK still has plenty of reasons to care who is lynched and to employ strategic votes.

The way I explained sure looks that way. But still, I believe that move does not make sense for someone who is trying to keep under the radar. The vote makes sense from a civilian or mafia perspective, but not a PSK perspective.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth
Of the living players implicated by that theory, who do you lean toward?
Jay, same question to you.

Same to everyone else.

If Epignosis's theory is correct that the PSK missed the Night 5 kill because of inactivity, which player do you think is most likely to be the PSK based on players who did not post that night.

The candidates are bcornett (NK'd by mafia last night), Diiny, DrWilgy, and motel room.
MM now pushes Epi's theory of Night 5 non-posters as SK candidates. He seems to have discarded his own proposed alternative theory and is pursuing the one that doesn't feature him as a suspect.

:sigh: As I've said, my own theory has proven false, so why would I continue to stick by it? What do you think about that theory?
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]
Yeah, that was in reference to the SK theory.
Okay, so...? What do you conclude given this correction?

That Bullzeye is unlikely the PSK, as has been proven.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge
I look forward to your expansions.

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?
I dropped in early on Day 12 with a strongly-worded anti-MM statement. What was his primary concern?

When I posted it. :suspish:

Your timing is suspicious. If you are a civilian, and you fear that you might be nightkilled (maybe you didn't for some other reasons, but I'll not go there), why would you wait until just after the day starts and say "Hey, this guy is probably the PSK!"

Your timing looks reactionary to the results of the previous night, and that is why I find it suspicious.


~~~

Conclusion:

MM has made a concerted effort in this game to discuss the SK a lot more often than most players tend to, and in so doing he has maneuvered his suspicions in convenient manners while offering nonsense defenses for himself. If the SK really didn't send a PM on Night 5 then fine, but that theory doesn't have to define the entire nature of the SK hunt. That's a big pill to swallow frankly. I think there are plenty of reasons to associate MM with the SK role.

Let's return to #legacyofstrawhenge2015.
Strawhenge wrote:He's either Life During Wartime or Psycho Killer. Vote him immediately.
This came in Straw's first post after the simultaneous failed night kills of Night 7 on the same target.
Strawhenge is wrong, for what it's worth.
by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:3) You're a harsh bastard, aren't you. Why can't I grade your case?
I didn't say you can't, I asked why you did. It might make sense if it represented some attempt by you to get a grasp of my motivations and thus perhaps a better read on my alignment, but the progression of your behavior does not seem to support that notion.
I am being defiant, you're right.

I've explained some of my behavior in the response to the Bullzeye-study. It was difficult to keep up with all of your content in the thread before. Now it's 10 times as bad because all of your posts are directed at me, and you keep hollering at me.

Now if you call the Bullzeye thing a case it's a weak case. My understanding was that it was a collection of interactions, independent of a specific alignment read. However, you looked at every post in the light of how it could view me as a Bullzeye teammate. So I graded each post on how far you had reached in some points.

I know my interactions with Bullzeye look bad. After the Day 5 lynch, I developed a civvie read on him based on his attitude. Then I got lazy, and never got around to changing it. I did look at the Epignosis case when he posted it. I felt that with the exception of the MacDougall interaction, the looks were weak, so I passed on it.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay got a score of 37/130 on my. That's a 28.5%, or a D on a large curve.

But this is mafia where everything is made up and the points don't matter. :goofp:
Does this mean something to you? You've asserted that my case was bad enough to warrant a poor grade and presented this arbitrary total to discredit it. This is the issue I'm having with you right now: everything you're doing seems to be aimed at building a pile of doubt over everything I say.

If a point I make warrants a "0/10" grade, then it should be a simple matter to destroy it and leave yourself looking better. Your responses do not achieve that. I'll why I feel that way shortly.
The total is not arbitrary. I added up all of the points you scored. I gave you a 0/10 when you misinterpreted my intentions with my posts.
by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:33 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Oh, and I'll get to the SK case you made as well Jay.
by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:31 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Russtifinko wrote:Ok, trying to keep this brief because I am dead tired.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:False.

Night 5: Nobody was removed from the poll on Day 6, so nobody could have been roleblocked. One of his powers wouldn't have gone through without the other one.

Night 7: Choutas was removed from the poll Day 8, meaning that somebody from the Syndicate was roleblocked. Remember that I am from RYM in this game.

Those were the two nights that Life during Wartime attempted and failed to perform a nightkill. The Night 7 one is more relevant because Strawhenge made his comment on Day 8, and Psycho Killer made a kill attempt that night (that also failed).

My point is that Strawhenge could not have targeted me on Night 7, as his roleblock would have had to gone to a Syndicate member.
So based on this, if we have any idea at all when Choutas might have flipped, then we can figure out whether the SK is Syndicate or RYM, right? And if we do that and cross-reference it with who didn't post on N5, we might be able to narrow down the SK to a very very few players? I would do it myself, but I am unable to figure out whether the above means the SK would be Synd or RYM. I'd be grateful to wiser people who were able to get on it.

I honestly think this might be the most important issue today. I think getting baddies > getting the SK under normal circumstances, but the reality at this point is that this guy could potentially kill twice tonight, and getting him now could save us from that.
There was only one roleblocker though, and two kills survived. So it is more likely that one player was protected (by his own power or another).

Also, Post #8,000 ftw.
by Marmot
Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:16 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:1.) At no point did I suggest people should trust me more because of my ACEO position. That's MM talking, not me. I have my reasons for thinking he's bad, and I put up two big cases to express the suspicion in terms everyone can understand.

2.) Anything related to my ACEO role is not going into this thread, and any demands to the contrary will be ignored.

3.) Marsh, why are you grading the case? Your mindset is very difficult to reconcile with that of a townie right now regardless of how hard you think I'm trying. You're being defiant, not earnest.
1&2) Alright, I'll drop the CEO thing. But if your posts that I linked to Diiny aren't related to the CEO thing, then I expect an explanation for the obscure comments in them.

3) You're a harsh bastard, aren't you. Why can't I grade your case?
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:56 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Diiny wrote:I've been phone bound today, but I'm reading this mm Jay thing with interest at the moment. What a surprise to have heard noting from wilgy. I'll post tomorrow w/ all thoughts and questions and questions.

Can you show me an example of the CEO trust thing from J, MM? I think he's just trying to get you to engage with the straw case itself. Please, show me he's doing what you're claiming because that sounds questionable
There is no Straw case though.

But yeah, there's this post. And there's this one

What do you think?
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:33 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Jay got a score of 37/130 on my. That's a 28.5%, or a D on a large curve.

But this is mafia where everything is made up and the points don't matter. :goofp:
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Metalmarsh89's content about Bullzeye:

*NOTE* -- I have deliberately avoided thoroughly reviewed Rico's own work on this interaction before producing this.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.

Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%

My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.


Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.
MM brought this out in Night 4 after the Sorsha lynch. He was half-contesting the notion that Devin was saved by Sorsha voters and noted that Bullzeye was the only person to really be pushing that agenda. I've highlighted a portion here that I think promotes an illogical thought process. While we know now that Devin was not "saved", we didn't know that then and that means a townie must approach the scenario from that mindset of uncertainty. MM portrays that mindset here, but arrives at a distinct conclusion (against the notion of a save) via a line of thinking that doesn't make sense. He's acknowledged that the Sorhsa/Devin wagons were at one point tied 7-7 and still discards the notion of a save because "Devin never had the lead" -- this is erroneous to the point of being dubious. A tied tally between a townie and a potential mafioso is literally a perfect scenario for a save to be possible.

Why do I care? Because this line of thinking was his setup for throwing a little shade on Bullzeye. If a line of thinking appears so wrong that it's sincerity can be doubted, and it is applied to a soft criticism of a confirmed mafioso, then the potential for a team mate relationship is perfectly believable. Moreover, MM hardly followed up on this. The following post is essentially the extent of that effort:

I saw talk of the lynch being a savejob, so I asked players who thought this way to explain why it would be a save. Then after rereading the posts again, I realized that Bullzeye was the only player who called it a save.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.
This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.
He again names Bullzeye but it's barely accusatory and even invites the discussion to expand well beyond just Bullzeye.

It was directed at Bullzeye because he was the only player who declared that the Sorsha lynch was a civ. There is nothing wrong with opening up the discussion to other players.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:Are we going to ignore the simple possibility that the ???? kill could've been whoever Golden had seduced? It's not like we aren't 100% certain of what his role was.
If that's the case, does it tell us anything?
On Day 5 Bullzeye throws a pretty meaningless theory into the thread and MM asks a rather neutral question about it.

I agree that his theory was meaningless, which is why I responded with a question that was intended to point out it doesn't help us.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
Ricochet wrote: Yes, if Golden was targeted, it'd go to ????. Golden wouldn't die. He'd not even be a kill target anymore, ???? would.

Alternatively, if ???? was the seduced and targeted, it'd go to Golden. ???? would not be a kill target anymore, Golden would. So it couldn't be a failed kill attempt on ???? anymore.
You'll note that I've questioned why the redirected kill would even be mentioned myself and have said it's the only hole in the theory. Still, it's a better one than Matt's as it has actual grounding in logic. I don't think it's really that important anyway tbh.
Matt's was logical. It just has a hole that makes it impossible, and Matt has yet to acknowledge this.
MM chats with Bullzeye about Matt's SK theory for Mac (suggesting the theory was both logical and had a hole rendering it impossible -- :confused:).

I'm of the opinion that even though Matt's theory here was impossible, he came to a logical conclusion with the information that he had observed. This is different than many of Matt's other theories, which lacked logical approaches.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay! what do you think of Devin's previous vote for espers and this point I raised?

How does Devin's later self-vote, after voting for Bullzeye for meta, sit with you?

I ask because you said you read Devin's reactions today as genuine, but you said that before these posts.
After I'd started to doubt the Devin lynch as a good option, MM dropped this question on me. I didn't really consider it a significant moment before, but it could be now. I'm not sure why the sincerity of Devin's vote is being checked against his "voting for Bullzeye for meta". I don't understand the logic being drawn here, and I don't understand why Bullzeye's name is present in this post.

I included Bullzeye's name because Devin and Bullzeye had a back-and-forth where Devin ended up voting Bullzeye, and then later self-voted. That's how things unfolded after you claimed to read Devin's intentions as pure.

2/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Anyway, I'm mafia'd out tonight, but I may peek back in later.

Tomorrow I'll finish my response to your BR ISO, Jay. Then I'll look at your bcornett ISO. Then I'll read the second half of Rico's novel. Just reminding myself what I plan to do here.

Also, my list of Don'tLynches

Bullzeye
Elohcin
JaggedJimmyJay
Matt F
Metalmarsh89
RadicalFuzz
Ricochet
Russtifinko
Day 6 "don't lynch" includes Bullzeye. I'm not automatically perturbed that a confirmed mafioso is on this list, because mistakes happen to everyone. What troubles me is that I have no idea why Marsh came to this perspective by this point in the game. His only content relevant to Bullzeye before this point had largely read-independent questions and to contest Bullzeye's Devin-was-saved agenda. Honestly considering the way Bullzeye played this game from the word "Go" it's hard to understand how anyone would include him on this list, and I don't see content in MM's history to support this.

Things like this are exactly why I ask people these silly questions and for GTH reads. This is a distinct and important point in which MM took a significant stance on a player and it can allow us to judge him more conclusively.

I don't know if I have a good explanation for this. Even though I had mentioned him a few times before, nothing jumped out at me that made me want to consider putting my vote on him, so I included him on my Don't Lynch list.

8/10 points


- He GTH reads Bullzeye as good on Day 7.

- Bullzeye is the towniest shade of blue in a Day 9 rainbow.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Bullzeye
Most interesting bit to me. What makes you feel good? I wanna feel good.
All vibes. My read also hasn't changed on him for a couple days, so there's that.
I asked him what made him feel good about Bullzeye. He gave me "vibes".

It's Day 9 and we're talking about "vibes". :suspish:

Yeah. And I realized that when you asked me that question, though I admitted that I had not bothered to consider a change by paying attention to him.

10/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm voting Bullzeye for right now.
I'm reading your Bullzeye post now.

How about RadicalFuzz?

Linki: Russ, I didn't intend to call Epignosis stupid. I was taking a popular idiom and inserting Epignosis's name into it.
MM tells Epi he's reading his case against Bullzeye on Day 9. I don't see any post in which he shares his thoughts on that case though.

In case you couldn't tell, I can be all over the place. I never did respond to your BR ISO (though I still have half of a response in a draft). I've not finished my ISO on you. When I become this invested in analyzing a game, this is just what happens. See Flash Mafia, and forigve me for not being as responsbile as some players.

5/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:I have played with Bullz a number of times, and mainly when he's been a baddie, I believe. The one thing I remember well is that he gets HYPER defensive over relatively little things, and generally over defends himself and convinces everyone he's bad. Iirc he's had some pretty spectacular flameouts as a baddie.
Has he had any spectacular flameouts as a townie?
Harry Stephen Keeler rings a bell.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:I have played with Bullz a number of times, and mainly when he's been a baddie, I believe. The one thing I remember well is that he gets HYPER defensive over relatively little things, and generally over defends himself and convinces everyone he's bad. Iirc he's had some pretty spectacular flameouts as a baddie.
Has he had any spectacular flameouts as a townie?
Harry Stephen Keeler rings a bell.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Never mind, he was mafia in that game.
What do you make of Bullzeye being pretty subdued in his treatment of Mac, who accused him often?
It seems like a scumtell, especially considering the history behind Bullzeye as mafia.

I'll double-check his teammate interactions as mafia in past games if I get a chance.
Epi expanded on his meta read of Bullzeye which led to an extended discussion on the matter. He explores the meta question a little bit with past game examples and ends up granting that Bullzeye's subdued handling of Mac's accusation "seems like a scumtell" before pledging to double-check further.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Flash was unconventional, but Bullzeye and I had a good back and forth (I was "bad", but I don't consider Flash a true Mafia game).

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/search ... 2&sr=posts

Last Man Standing was another unconventional one (again, not a true Mafia game), but:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/search ... 5&sr=posts

My point in all this is that Bullzeye seemed perfectly fine with MacDougall calling him bad.

That's unlike him if he's a civilian, from my experience.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 041#p87041

Monty Python. Here's a normal mafia game (closed setup). Bullzeye is mafia, and Long Con is his teammate. Long Con says Bullzeye is info-dumping, but Bullzeye "shrugs it off", even while he is heatedly calling Boogs a liar for his accusations.
MM draws out a specific example of a game in which Bullzeye, as mafia, behaved similarly to what he did in response to Mac in this game. Seems like a pretty significant find, we'll see what effect it has on MM's read. There's evidence of a shift here in MM's perspective of Bullzeye, but there hasn't been a distinct accusation yet.

MM talks to Choutas about Bullzeye and the flavor of this post is mostly soft-defensive. Choutas asserted a single statement Bullzeye made was pingy and MM dissuaded that read. He then qualified that he felt Bullzeye as a townie has the tendency to react abrasively to info-dumping as opposed to cases -- a step back from the prior progression MM was making away from the town read on Bullzeye.

One obvious question I'd ask is: why would Bullzeye abrasively combat info-dumping about him if he's town? The rule-breaking might not be savory, but it wouldn't threaten his position in the game like it might if he is mafia. In any event the important thing here is that MM's momentary straying from the town read seems to be ending here.

I assumed that Bullzeye would act abrasively if info was dumped even as civilian. He is very anti-infodumping and rule-breaking (especially when it involves him), so I assumed that would be his behaviour.

2/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:But hey, I did learn some things from skimming through players' posts looking for all of their votes cast. Here are quick thoughts I have on players.

Bullzeye - There's that MacDougall interaction that Epignosis. But everything else feels less... bad. Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think. After browsing through 6 other players after Bullzeye, my thoughts are all over the place now.

Choutas - I commented on the votes already. He's often voted early without changing his vote beyond that. The only exception was seemingly to try and save a lynched mafia. He has dropped in my rainbow list.

Diiny - His contributions have not been great. Like Bullzeye, I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by the other players I've looked at since, but I do recall him being very go-along in his demeanor.

DrWilgy - His case on Day 2 against Long Con looks really good (barring at strategic bussing attempt). He's still been pretty solid since then. He helped lynch MacDougall on Day 6, and his votes outside of just seemed solid. Also, like Strawhenge, there was a point where he was trying to push an idea that relied on info, before he realized the error in his ways. Like Strawhenge, I think this is a good look for the doctor.

RadicalFuzz - Voting record doesn't look good. His attitude is solid and consistent, but he's done a good job at not committing to any reads on players that happened to flip mafia, specifically MacDougall and Floyd. Each of his votes has not resulted in a lynch with two exceptions. 1) espers on Day 5. Espers did lead the lynch 8-6 over Devin, but Devin was lynched instead due to vote manipulations. 2) Fuzz voted sig on Day 9, but that was a self-preservation vote. Thus, both of these exceptions get stars next to them, and don't make his vote record very solid.

Russtifinko - My mind has been changed on Russti. I think I may have tunneled on him quite a bit this game. Russti has not been afraid of making a decisive vote, whether it be on a baddie or a civilian. This consistent aggressive strategy has more potential to come from a civilian than a mafia member, in my opinion. He's got balls, and his output has been consistent throughout this game. Yes he has said several things that seem waffly/weird, but he's generally been open-minded as well, not afraid to trust another player when he was not certain (which was the case in the Long Con lynch).

Strawhenge - I can't see him being mafia at all. I've got a role pegged for him right now, and I've seen strong flashes of a civilian playstyle that I've noticed in my RYM research of him. I also completely understand the effects of burnout.
Compare the language MM employs here to talk about Bullzeye with the language he uses about every other read in this post. Only with Diiny does he offer up a waffle of a sentence like "I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by other players I've looked at since". He still gives a distinct read on Diiny though -- that his contributions have been poor and him being "go-along". These are criticisms, even if the post does not commit to moving against him. With everyone else he comes to a clear read.

In retrospect this all looks awful. This was a product of me doing the Bullzeye vote-count at night (and Choutas and I think Diiny as well), doing the rest the next morning, and compiling my thoughts afterward. My thoughts on the first three players were less coherent and fresh than the other player because of the belated compiling.

But yes this looks awful. I don't have a defense for this, other than I just felt surer about reads on other players, and cared more to pursue them.

10/10 points


With Bullzeye, he is the Great Emperor Waffle of Eggopolis. He acknowledges that the MacDougall interaction Epi and I mentioned exists, but he doesn't actually say anything about it. He doesn't say anything about anything with regards to Bullzeye.

"Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think."

This sentence can be found the Mafia Encyclopedia of Non-committal Reads.

He did give us a rainbow immediately after this post though.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Thus far, my rainbow list looks like this.


Strawhenge
Russtifinko
DrWilgy

Bullzeye
Diiny

Choutas
RadicalFuzz
Dead center.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Choutas wrote:I have no problem with you lynching me I am cool with that. Really. It's just hilarious everyone bothered to case me on Day 10(some did the previous day, it isn't directed to everyone). I wanted out of the game anyway. The only sad thing about my lynch is that town will get fucked and most likely lose the game.

By all means guys lynch me. Call my reads laughable, bully me and spit on me and lynch me like Jesus.

Then Choutas said, "MP, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing." And they divided up His garments by casting lots.
F*** you're doing it too Choutas. Buck up and play the game. I know it's lasted an eon but I don't give a crap. IrritatedJimmyJay.
You call Bullzeye's situation a concession, but you cheer Choutas on. :ponder:
Yer damn right. :mad:

Vote compilation -- the effort here is appreciated regardless of your alignment MM. I must say though that you put up a lot of posts within this framework and I'm not sure you did very much to take anything from it. In RYM #82 I put up a complete vote compilation as a mafioso because it was the easiest way to Look The Part without actually doing anything. I think it's a good possibility this is the same thing.

I'll be honest. After I did all of this vote-compiling (and going through half of your posts), I felt very... uneasy (I think that's the word I want). I felt a little burnout. I felt like everyone had a reason to be bad. Everything I was reading was easy to accept and acknowledge, I just completely lost the drive to properly analyze things and instead accepted them at face-value.

So I took a long weekend to recharge, dunno if that will be enough.

null points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:Like twice. Maybe three times. Answering posts that directly relate to me and facts I know because I'm me is much easier than reading through hundreds of posts and forming in-depth views based on careful analysis. I'm not even trying to defend myself from being lynched here, I'm just defending against the idea that my having been quiet and uninvolved is in any way related to my alignment.
The idea here isn't that quiet Bullzeye = bad Bullzeye. It's that maintaining an interest in responding to accusations and very little else for days and days is rather fundamental scumtell in Mafia. You fit the mold. Here's the problem: you're insisting that affecting this game in any other way is impossible without "forming in-depth views based on careful analysis". That is not the only option a townie has at his disposal. Most townies never even bother to perform "careful analysis". You've done close to nothing.

Various others were never caught up full with this game and still tried to provide something meaningful. bcornett is an example who comes to mind -- constantly behind the pace of the game, but when he was around he'd put something of value in the thread.
This is a very good point, actually.

Linki: that's what I'm doing right now. Get out of my head.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:This is a very good point, actually.

Linki: that's what I'm doing right now. Get out of my head.
Why is it a good point? What about this point resonates with Metalmarsh89?
The whole salami.

Your comparison of Bullzeye to bcornett, in that brian complained about keeping up, but still managed to state his opinion at times. Strawhenge has been acting similarly, but you have a townread on him, as do I.

But my question to you is, what is your read on Choutas?
I explained to MM why I felt Bullzeye's late game behavior (Day 10 at this point) was so suspicious to me that I said he was conceding as a mafioso by drawing a comparison to bcornett (a townie who had a lot of trouble keeping up with the game but still did his best to stay relevant when he could).

Marsh thought I made a "very good point". What about the point did he like? "The whole salami".

He prodded me for a read on Choutas in the meanwhile.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.
This is possible the worst vote of the entire game by any player in it. If you look back in Marsh's posts for justifications for his Choutas vote, they exist, but not in any confidence-inspiring clear manner. He mostly criticized Choutas for voting early consistently (this is not a strong accusation frankly) and making one bad vote when he wasn't early. When your entire analytic focus is voting records, it's pretty easy to find someone who looks like a dope and fling poop at them. Even still though, the progression of MM's posts seems tailored to the survival of Bullzeye at the expense of Choutas until the day expires -- without inspiring confidence like I said.

Yes it looks bad. No other way to put it.

Moreover, when he explained his Choutas vote -- it wasn't even about his voting record. It was this:
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
motel room wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.
Now that we're on the other side, why did you prefer him to Bullzeye? I went a bit back through your posts and couldnt really see.
Jay brought up Bullzeye's recent behavior. I thought it was a good point. But then I noticed Choutas' behavior today as well. Early on this Day phase, he made about not having time to play and getting modkilled. Then, as the day grew late and it grew more likely he would be lynched, he got more into defending himself. I misread this, thinking he was a member of mafia, trying to bluff us.

I feel bad about it. I didn't have a lot of confidence in the vote, but took it upon myself to break the tie anyway.
motel room specifically asked him why he preferred Choutas over Bullzeye. Instead of referencing his prior voting record compilations (which would have been dubious enough), he cited Choutas's EOD behavior. He acknowledged that I made a "very good point" about Bullzeye's behavior (indeed, "the whole salami" of the point), but moved against Choutas instead without saying why.

If this mindset existed when the Choutas vote was being placed, why did MM not actually express it? He said he preferred to lynch Choutas and voted for Choutas and that was it. It wouldn't have been hard for him to simply say either to Choutas or to everyone else "I am voting for Choutas because I think his current behavior clashes with his prior stated threats to pursue a modkill". Instead, we get it after the fact and it reads like an excuse.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth.
Epignosis wrote:Night 5 posts

bcornett24- 0 posts
Bullzeye- 10 posts
Choutas- 12 posts
Diiny- 0 posts (0 posts Day 6 also)
DrWilgy- 0 posts
Elohcin- Isn't even reading the thread 3 posts
Epignosis- Count yourself if you care
JaggedJimmyJay- 14,241 posts
Matt F- 24 posts
Metalmarsh89- 24 posts
motel room- 0 posts
RadicalFuzz- 11 posts
Ricochet- 27 posts
Russtifinko- 10 posts
sig- 0 posts
Strawhenge- 2 posts
TheFloyd73- The Mountain Comes to Mohammad
This post might not mean much but I'll bring it up. He defended Bullzeye against "mafia" suspicion in light of Epi's serial killer theory. This is a weird goof up to make though because pretty much everyone suspecting Bullzeye was doing so on the basis that he's mafia, not that he's the SK.

It could just be oversight because I didn't even notice it when I responded to this post originally.

Oversight. I meant SK, not mafia.

null points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MacDougall wrote:Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.
Look where your top 2 scumreads sit, Jay.
Mac loves his WIFOM. It' all over his ISO. What do you think this says about those two?
I feel the same way. But as Ricochet pointed out, MacDougall immediately reversed his opinion of Fuzz, calling Wilgy scum and Fuzz town. Fuzz then pushed for a CFD of Wilgy.
MM references a specific Mac post which might suggest Fuzz and Bullzeye would be a difficult pairing to argue as mafia. He then maneuvers this into a case against Fuzz and not Bullzeye.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay, I'll entertain your notion that RadicalFuzz and Bullzeye are mafia. I noticed this post from RadicalFuzz on Night 5.
RadicalFuzz wrote:Bullzeye, if you're still here, how have my posts in the last hour changed your opinion of me? Feel free to do a simple before and after analysis instead of a short answer. I'll read it.
Fuzz asks Bullzeye to analyze Fuzz's recent posts and explain why his opinion has changed. Looking at Bullzeye's posts, he did not mention any change in heart on RadicalFuzz, or any read of Fuzz at all. Here is Bullzeye's response.
Bullzeye wrote:I don't know that they've had any impact at all to be honest. I've never suspected you regardless. I actually have a fairly good vibe about you, I think you've been making good efforts to get involved and find baddies. I might not always think you're right, but as of now I haven't seen a reason to think you're bad yet.
Link to the start of the conversation. RadicalFuzz is forcing Bullzeye to take a stance on him, and Bullzeye does. But RadicalFuzz's approach to Bullzeye isn't consistent with what was stated before.
MM entertains the notion of a Fuzz/Bullzeye pairing by checking into their interactions. This might be important because MM continued to push a Fuzz lynch all day while Bullzeye was still more likely to be lynched (as was Wilgy). If Fuzz weren't dead, this might be something MM would employ against him right now. That's only relevant if Fuzz was town though.

Admittedly, it's not very likely that RadicalFuzz is mafia at this point. Possible, but unlikely.

Either the SK bought into the idea that RadicalFuzz was mafia, or he's more interested in setting me up. (and this is why I don't like your day-opening statement, because it could have come with that idea in mind).

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Of the two, which do you find more suspicious MM?
RadicalFuzz. I think that particular conversation looks bad for both of them, and there are other factors with regards to RadicalFuzz that I/you/somebody has brought up before. The CFD. The Floyd slip.

Like I said, RadicalFuzz asked Bullzeye why Bullzeye's opinion of him changed, and Bullzeye had never stated an original opinion of Fuzz to begin with, late alone changed a previous one. Bullzeye's answer is not great, but I still think that RadicalFuzz put words into Bullzeye's mouth there, and forced Bullzeye to take a stance. It is consistent with RadicalFuzz's intent on someone reading him as bad though, I will admit that.

Linki: Fuzz, you asked Bullzeye "How have my posts changed your opinion of me" when Bullzeye did not have an opinion of you. Can you explain the meaning of that statement?
He specifically selects Fuzz as the more suspicious of the two.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Actually, I would tinfoil Strawhenge as mafia as well.

I'd list Bullzeye as low-hanging fruit.
Bullzeye is MM's low-hanging fruit.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed :( I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.
Ok, Bullzeye. :P
The Bullzeye vote we needed before finally comes on Day 11 in the form of banter.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I almost forgot.

JaggedJimmyJay. My vote's back on you now. :mafia:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.
Welp, there it went. He "took the pressure" off of Bullzeye, which was surely suffocating given that banter vote. :p
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.
I deserve to die because I intend to respond. Not necessarily tonight, maybe tomorrow during the day since there's plenty of time. I'm still reading and don't know how long it will take. I deserve to die for being tired and slow at reading as well as not psychic. My many failures are a great source of shame.
You're not my number one lynch option, my vote for you was in jest.

I know you may not have caught up yet, but just know that though you did receive a few votes yesterday, you're not necessarily everyone's number one lynch option. Everybody (except motel room) is fair game today, and should be treated as such.
This kind of content is quite important, as this is MM speaking directly with Bullzeye in the heat of the moment -- team mate relationships can be affirmed or denied in these kinds of interactions. In this case he is offering encouragement to Bullzeye by assuring him he isn't automatically going to be lynched. I don't think this post is incompatible with a team mate relationship.

Ok, now you're tunneling.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:He could also be a baddie who doesn't have time to catch up or he could be a civvie who has not interest in catching up.
Pick one.
I made a similar assertion about Choutas yesterday, and you found the decision to do so uninspiring. Why the fuck would you ask me to do the same thing again today?
MM waffled on Bullzeye some more and then freaked out when I asked him to take an actual stance.

You already called my behavior from the day before a bad look (and the worst vote in the game). Asking someone to do something you can incriminate them for later is a bad strategy.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?
Is it possible for this question to yield an insightful response on Day 11?
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Diiny wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Diiny wrote:Who are you voting, rico?

Tell me what you think of this radfuzz bullzeye thing too
Come lynch RadicalFuzz with me.
Is this to rico or me?

either way: why not bullzye; why not wilgy?
I don't agree with the case on DrWilgy.

I'm not opposed to lynching Bullzeye. He's my second option.

But you're asking Rico what he thinks of RadicalFuzz/Bullzeye. I want to know what you think.
Reaffirms his preference for Fuzz as the lynch of the day over Bullzeye.
Spoiler: show
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.

If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?
When the lynch is over and the votes are official. You can't declare a winner until the clock hits zero.

Linki: I'm somewhat wary of a Bullzeye lynch right now because nobody has denied the interest in voting against it.
The highlighted statement might be fun, because MM was the one who denied having the interest in voting against it -- he sideline-supported the Bullzeye lynch while maintaining a preference for Fuzz (and used his vote accordingly).

Define fun.

Bullzeye spew about Metalmarsh89:
Spoiler: show
Bullzeye wrote:Haven't been able to catch up as much as I'd have liked to and it's way too late for me now, so as I said earlier I'm going to have to random this one. Hopefully the night phase will allow me to catch up properly and get into the game! Randomizer is telling me to *Vote for MM*. I only hope he can find it in his heart to forgive me.
XD

Bantery Day 1 vote excused as "random"? This post is quite belabored. I am not sure it was really random. That implies a strategic intent.
Spoiler: show
Bullzeye wrote:
Ricochet wrote:What does everyone think about MM?

Then, what does everyone think about MM's "death wishes / death-deserving" posts? I'm seeing them in my revisit of Day 4 and they give me pause. MM's banter and evasive game can serve both his good or bad persona, but those posts suddenly make me think a bit back to how a civvie MM can usually tend to act hinty. Anyone seeing anything of this nature?
Pretty sure he's not the only person to have made such posts. I think it's a punishment of some kind for inactivity. Are you suggesting you think he's hinting that we should lynch him or something?
Rico mentions the deathwish posts re: MM and Bullzeye offers a soft defense. This is an easy post for Bullzeye to make regardless of MM's alignment. He bothered to make it though so judge as you may.
Spoiler: show
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.
Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%
My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.

Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.
Did I not mention Russ like 3 times? Also I thought it had been tied at 9-9 with Russ breaking the tie, but I was tired and misremembering. The reason I think the lynch looks shifty is that every time Devin got near Sorsha's vote count, Sorsha got a bunch more votes to keep her ahead. Obviously not all of these could have come from baddies, but it looks odd to me. Specifically Sorsha's final three votes which all came in one string to keep her ahead. I've said that already as well, I'm pretty sure.
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.
This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.
Well Devin wasn't my strongest suspect. While I did suspect him, the main reason I voted for him was because once she got past the defeatism I felt Sorsha came off very genuine in her defences and had begun to feel quite good about her overall, so didn't think she should be lynched. I felt a Devin lynch was more worthwhile, and more feasible than lynching anyone else I'd thought of (i.e. Russ, I think my only supporter in that case was poor FZ).

As to why exactly I did suspect Devin: There was his blendiness around the LC lynch which has been pointed out a few times as a possible connector between the two of them. I think blendy in general would be a fair description - his posts also have quite a bit of fluff to them, I find. Not to mention, up until naming a few suspects tonight he doesn't ever do very much in the way of discussing his suspicions or adding to existing debates on people. When I look at his posts I feel what SVS was saying about me in Recruitment - he has a fairly solid amount of posts for having given such a small amount of opinions.

You were his teammate in Recruitment, so I'd be interested in your perspective when you get the chance to give him a proper look over.
Bullzeye explains his Devin-was-saved agenda to MM. I don't believe there was a follow-up on this as I mentioned earlier.
Spoiler: show
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
AceofSpaces wrote:I am putting a vote onto Russ, based on what MacDougall said. I really don't have the time to catch up fully and form a solid opinion right now. Voting for Russ is the best I can do.
Black Rock replaced AceofSpaces. This was one of AceofSpaces' only two posts of the game before he subbed out, in which he followed a known teammate's suspicion to vote Russti, being the second vote on him and about an hour before the deadline.

I asked Mac if he wanted to lynch Russti, who had quickly gained four votes, and was looking like a decent lynch candidate (trailing birdwithteeth 4-7). Instead, Mac left his vote on the less popular reywas (now RadicalFuzz).

These things considered, I think Russtifinko is mafia.
Finally someone agrees!
Bullzeye celebrates dramatically when MM makes a move against Russ on Day 7.

Bullzeye responds to Epi's case as well as some Marsh content.

Epi's stuff was a lot more scathing than MM's, so the responses bear that out. Bullzeye is defending himself against Epi and explaining himself to MM.
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed :( I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.
Ok, Bullzeye. :P
Just because I deserve to die (and I do) doesn't mean you should kill me. That'd be too obvious.
:|
Spoiler: show
Bullzeye wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.
I deserve to die because I intend to respond. Not necessarily tonight, maybe tomorrow during the day since there's plenty of time. I'm still reading and don't know how long it will take. I deserve to die for being tired and slow at reading as well as not psychic. My many failures are a great source of shame.
Bullzeye's empty promise to do something with his time in the game falls at MM's feet.

You were keen on scum-spew yesterday. What did you derive from Bullzeye's scumspew of me?

~~~

Conclusion:

It's really easy to see MM in a bad light here. It's just not a good look at any juncture really. The prior analyses re: MM have been rather inconclusive, but this is distinctly bad and icky.

Not convinced? I think a good case can be made that he's the SK too. I'll work on that after I get a little sleep though.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:57 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh, there are a ton of things in this thread that can be illuminated. I illuminated them loudly. Address them as you can and we'll talk about those things. Otherwise you're giving me nothing but insinuations that my word shouldn't be taken as gospel and nor should Strawhenge's -- things that are plainly evident already. Like I said: your focus right now is on my credibility and not the points I've made against you.

That's suspicious. Period.

linki: I didn't tell people to trust me or to trust Strawhenge implicitly. I gave them a case. Two of them.
You're missing the point. Nobody knows how Strawhenge arrived at his conclusion, so asking players to trust him, knowing that, doesn't make sense.

You told him that over and over again yourself. I don't know why you've changed your opinion on that matter.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:25 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

motel room wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, "Trust me guys, I'm the CEO" =/= "Trust me guys, I'm civilian".
Where did he do that?
It wasn't explicit, but I read that Jay is implying that I should be lynched because he is the CEO. He says Strawhenge should be trusted, but he can't tell me why, except that it should be obvious why.

Feel free to correct this statement if it's wrong Jay.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay, making predictions of my feelings as I read your responses looks exactly like that. This post in particular looks like you are trying to get a rise out of me, and you are pleased with the thought of that. Why would that make you happy? Why would it be good to be able to emotionally manipulate another player in the game?

My point is, your pride is showing. Check it please.
There is no "emotional manipulation". There is only me playing Mafia. Sure I was trying to get a rise out of you -- not on any personal level but within the context of this game we've both been playing for an entire month. I'm trying to win, and if you're not on my team then you stand in the way of that. I don't understand why you're concerned with my "pride" right now, and you've still failed to acknowledge the most obvious explanation for my tight-lipped behavior.

You shouldn't care about my pride. You should care about my motives and my correctness. You're not challenging my read, you're challenging my credibility.
If I know what you're talking about, then what's the point? It's frustrating to watch things happen in the thread that can't be illuminated. And it's even more frustrating when I feel like you're taking advantage of that situation.

Also, "Trust me guys, I'm the CEO" =/= "Trust me guys, I'm civilian".
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Jay, making predictions of my feelings as I read your responses looks exactly like that. This post in particular looks like you are trying to get a rise out of me, and you are pleased with the thought of that. Why would that make you happy? Why would it be good to be able to emotionally manipulate another player in the game?

My point is, your pride is showing. Check it please.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:You don't know what reasons I have or don't have to believe Strawhenge. All you know is that I mounted two big ol' cases against you. You continue to focus on the least important thing I said.
You're right, I don't. You've refused to answer that question. :nicenod:
That's right. :)
Get off your high-horse dude. Your read of me is incorrect, and you're going to blow this game (for the civilians at least) if you don't quit it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the impression that I have is that you've got quite a bit of "swag" right now, and you consider yourself top stuff. I resent that attitude, and especially at this junction.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Spoiler: show
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
motel room wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.
That's the fun part. It doesn't even have to be about his role! I bet that's been driving you nuts, eh? ;)

But you trusted him too. You had him blue in your rainbow. You said he was showing things you recognized in your "RYM research" that made you feel good. Why did you trust your biggest foe in the game?
If it's not about his role, then what is it?

I think I know what his role is, and if I'm correct, then there is nothing for him implicate me, especially concerning his statement that I am Love during Wartime or Psycho Killer.

I did trust that he was civilian, and I thought it was clear even what role he was (that role being Take Me to the River). That doesn't mean he was correct. See seaside.
we don't know seaside wasn't correct.
This reminded me of something.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Ricochet wrote:If D3 manipulation could be viable - albeit meaning I should have been dead :huh: - then yes, I would lean on him having seen civ manipulation rather than Drugs, so something working in your favour. But the only civ manipulation with negatives is Blind's, I think? And if so, why would seaside suss one of you out at all?
I honestly think seaside just saw that your vote total was not what it was supposed to be and then suspected everyone on the wagon as a result. I acknowledge this would mean that he never thoroughly read the roles in the game, but I don't see any other explanation.
I would actually agree with this.
This was on Day 8. I had a reason to make this assertion about seaside since I was one of the people implicated by his claims about the Ricochet wagon of Day 3. Marsh did not have this reason, so for him to agree with this assertion is a surprising thing.
And to respond to this statement, I've read the roles. We know that the only vote-manipulative role that the baddies have is one that cannot be linked directly to them, so it's easy to deduce that not only were the three of you (Diiny, Jay, espers) not likely to be a baddie, but one of you is guaranteed to be a civilian.

My scum-hunting abilities might not be very good, but I'm still observant, and can make deductions, especially role-related ones.

Some of my theories have obviously proved wrong, but not all of them.

Linki: Hold that thought motel room. I am putting together a response to it, I'm just responding to smaller points and real-time chat too.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

motel room wrote:Forget Strawhenge. Do you think JJJ is making it up?
Making what up?
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:You don't know what reasons I have or don't have to believe Strawhenge. All you know is that I mounted two big ol' cases against you. You continue to focus on the least important thing I said.
You're right, I don't. You've refused to answer that question. :nicenod:
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Bullcrap.

I just put up nineteen page cases for you as a mafioso and as a serial killer. I did exactly what I begged Strawhenge to do.
That has nothing to do with Strawhenge.

So yes, dropping the point at the end #legacyofStrawhenge or whatever is is worthless if you can't use anything he has to offer.

Imagine another player in this game skipping the majority of the case and going to the bottom line of your case to see your conclusions, and finding that line in there. Using him as a reason to support your case is irrelevant if you have no reason to believe him.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:So I ask you again, why are you putting stock into what Strawhenge had to say?
Guess what time it is? It's time for this emoticon!



:shrug:



You're seething. :grin:

Actually the perfect emoticon right now would be that shrug with the grinface.

Maybe DrWilgy has some thoughts about this.
Jay, after all the effort and "cheerleading" you put forth toward Strawhenge to come up with a logical and apparent reason for everyone to trust him, you're behaving the exact same way.

Your progression is illogical.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Ok Jay. But I've pointed out a good reason why Strawhenge, even if he is a civilian, can't inherently be trusted.

There is also the case he made on Day 10 against Choutas and his vendetta against him. I know I voted Choutas that day too, but Strawhenge was wrong there.

So I ask you again, why are you putting stock into what Strawhenge had to say?

Linki: I'm going to Jay, I'm about to leave for a midterm, but I'll be home in a couple hours.

Will you answer my question?
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Ricochet wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, yes Choutas is Seen but not Seen, which has the ability to change his face and homesite. But had he done that, he would not have been able to be removed from the poll anyway, so that power was not in play.
How would an already converted-to-Syndicatee Choutas NOT be able to be removed from the poll on Night 7? That's actually the part that literally would make sense (Choutas as Synner removed, you as Rymer blocked).
This is why.

Seen and Not Seen – During any night, it may try to change its face. "Changing its face" effectively switches the forum this player is from when it comes to all forum-driven role powers, unbeknownst to everyone else. For example, if this player is actually from The Syndicate, it may elect to change its face, and thereafter it is secretly from RateYourMusic, and a power that would previously have affected it because it was from The Syndicate only no longer will do so. It takes two full cycles before this change takes effect.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Also, yes Choutas is Seen but not Seen, which has the ability to change his face and homesite. But had he done that, he would not have been able to be removed from the poll anyway, so that power was not in play.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:23 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Moreover: I was absolutely not clear on what role Strawhenge was. I had some hunches and that one was among them (there were three of four viable candidates that I could think of). That you were clear on him being that specific role would seem to imply that you'd know his roleblocking power would be relevant to his read on you -- aka you knew why he suspected you.

:suspish:
That is my theory Jay. Do you oppose it?

Anyway, in my previous post, I address why Strawhenge would have been wrong.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

False.

Night 5: Nobody was removed from the poll on Day 6, so nobody could have been roleblocked. One of his powers wouldn't have gone through without the other one.

Night 7: Choutas was removed from the poll Day 8, meaning that somebody from the Syndicate was roleblocked. Remember that I am from RYM in this game.

Those were the two nights that Life during Wartime attempted and failed to perform a nightkill. The Night 7 one is more relevant because Strawhenge made his comment on Day 8, and Psycho Killer made a kill attempt that night (that also failed).

My point is that Strawhenge could not have targeted me on Night 7, as his roleblock would have had to gone to a Syndicate member.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.
That's the fun part. It doesn't even have to be about his role! I bet that's been driving you nuts, eh? ;)

But you trusted him too. You had him blue in your rainbow. You said he was showing things you recognized in your "RYM research" that made you feel good. Why did you trust your biggest foe in the game?
If it's not about his role, then what is it?

I think I know what his role is, and if I'm correct, then there is nothing for him implicate me, especially concerning his statement that I am Love during Wartime or Psycho Killer.

I did trust that he was civilian, and I thought it was clear even what role he was (that role being Take Me to the River). That doesn't mean he was correct. See seaside.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:50 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Jay, you're full of shit.

I'll offer some more elongated responses when I get a chance, but you are stuck in a tunnel now. Your case on DrWilgy yesterday was based on everything that MacDougall said and nothing about what DrWilgy said.

Your case against me is based on my interactions with Bullzeye and no other derivation. The content looks bad, but I'm not basing my whole read on you from your interactions with MacDougall.

You're leaving out way too many pieces of the puzzle for Day 12.
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?
I checked in at work and that's what time it was. Plus the death of RadicalFuzz without an accompanying "the mafia have been eliminated" or "the serial killer has been eliminated" leaves you square in the crosshairs.

More substantive explanation to come.

Why do you care when I said that?
More substantive explanation to come. :|
by Marmot
Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:27 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge
I look forward to your expansions.

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?
by Marmot
Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

RadicalFuzz wrote:I won't state what I think of this yet, lest I misunderstand it and add fuel to the fire, but can you clarify what you mean with this MM?
Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?
Bullzeye was wasn't saying much nor giving us anything to work with. I decided to be blunt and ask him if he was intentionally being murky with his statements so as to not reveal anything upon his lynch.
by Marmot
Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:17 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Ricochet wrote:-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]
Yeah, that was in reference to the SK theory.
by Marmot
Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:29 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Ricochet wrote:A player called Llama would now have probably pointed you to this game
That game barely eclipsed 250 posts in a month. This game has 11 players who have posted 250+ times (including one with 1250)
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:27 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?
Because I'm terrible.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:02 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Diiny wrote:Gratz, Russ! I'm excited for you!

Wilgy, the last few flips have only been making J look better and better. Why is he scum now, despite being 55% before?
This is true. I don't think Jay would continue throwing teammates under the bus for his own gain. He's supatown. :llama:
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:00 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Russtifinko wrote:So I went back to read Wilgy expecting to basically see a whole lot of nothing. My gut read of him said it was a guy who tried really hard to start the game (see: ACEO campaign) and has been dropping off steadily since. I was pleasantly surprised, though. He's contributed a lot more substantive content than I thought.

I do see a few points against him, most of which have been brought up already:
- As Diiny mentioned (yesterday?), he has been fairly floppy floppy on RadicalFuzz, even though they read each other well.
- He was mentioned a lot by baddies (JJJ covered this in his scum spew analysis).
- He has posted large graphs and charts with little analysis to accompany them. (A number of people have discussed this already.)

Things I personally don't like are his declining contributions the past Day period or two, and the fact that he keeps asking people to infodump. I'm given to understand that info is cool on RYM, but RadicalFuzz has said that Wilgy knows the rules here. He seems determined to stretch them to their limit.

I actually feel moderately positive on Wilgy now, despite the shade he's getting. I don't really see him as a super likely SK either, since he's taken enough hard stances (Choutas and bcornett) to get some negative attention.
The case against him has been about things that other people have said (MacDougall mainly), not what he's said.

That is what I have gathered.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:58 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

RadicalFuzz wrote:Oh god that formatting. I apologize.

Wilgy if you think I'm scum why did you save me? You had an emphatic defense of me. Why?
I don't know why I said that. I meant to say I would have placed a more meaningful vote.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:21 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

I gotta go do some homework stuff, but this was a nice update for my spreadsheet. Good work today everyone.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:08 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

RadicalFuzz wrote:By the way, while I'm gloating already, your vote is a one-of off-wagon vote Metalmarsh. The day we lynched scum. Looks like you missed out on all those brownie points, shame.
If there was a close lynch between someone else, I would have tied it. A unanimous lynch is a different story. Again, you've misunderstood me.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:04 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

RadicalFuzz wrote:
motel room wrote:Fuzz, the posts I quoted were before and during you casting the vote. Like remember Long Con's eventual vote for Sig early on where he had to backpedal the Bea thing and find a more compelling reason to place his final vote? Reminds me of that. Too-heavy display of reasoning.
I wasn't around then and haven't read it. My vote was more complex than a simple "He said X, X is scum talk, lynch him" so that's why I had exposition about my vote. Would you have preferred me gloss over my reasoning?

MM as I've said all game I have done scummy things. Soft defense of Mac, illogical reasons for not voting Floyd, I'm aware of this. There is no defense to what I did, simply put. What could I possibly say that would make me look better with those moves?
Oh damn, my vote for Choutas yesterday looks a lot worse now.

Now you can't accuse me of this because I've already admitted it. :P
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:02 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

HOSTS: Will we be told if a team is eliminated?
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

MovingPictures07 wrote:If somehow Sloonei and I receive all Night PMs within the next couple of hours and you all are OK with it, we will proceed to Day 12 and I will extend that period to 72 hours.
I understand moving the game along, but I'm against this.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Yes! Please be Day 12!
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:51 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Ricochet wrote:Guys, I'm voting Wilgy. He's the stronger questionable possible teamie, based on what I reviewed from JJJ's scans. Furthermore, he made an unexplained Bullzeye vote, part self def (I suppose 3-2 was close enough), part "lovin" Choutas' case (a player he mislynched a Day ago and never addressed his Bullzeye case) and I can't find a word on suspecting Bullzeye in the last two pages of history. I feel better sussing this.

With Bullzeye, the Going-Through-Head thought is that he wouldn't have made a towel throw smokescreen move, whilst barely having any vote on the tally, and in any situation in which he might have at least one teammate around. Maybe this is imaginable if the SK did damage and he's a lone wolf, but less so otherwise, because you can stil coordinate, you can still prepare at least one liner, you can make a half-assed move.

I genuinely hope everyone voting him turns out to be right, because I genuinely hope this lynch doesn't push the civs into near defeat. But I can't shed the doubts about this move in particular.
I don't think you're being genuine.
























































:P
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Diiny wrote:I mean do you think in your opinion that he's more likely than not to flip scum? Based on your read of him

Because obviously statistically it's the same as everyone else.
Yes, I think he will.

But there was no opposition to his lynch. Every single player alive in this game has either listed him as a highly-touted suspect, or has their vote on him right now (except for him of course). Unless there is only one baddie left, it is a little disconcerting.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:47 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

RadicalFuzz wrote:Metalmarsh, is word usage not important? Words are the only venue we have to communicate, and this is a game about communication. When I made the comment about your desire to lynch me, I wasn't referring to your case against me, I was referring to your very minor efforts to get me lynched. "Vote X with me" is, in my experience, rarely a compelling argument.
I would be lying if I were saying it's not.

But my point is, if I offer an explanation for your scumminess, rather than defend this accusation, you've chosen to dissect the explanation and suggest that I am bad because of how the explanation is portrayed. This is an elegant form of a NO U, and I've pointed it out several times, but you've misunderstood some of my posts with these attempts.

With no explanation as to why the accusation is false, I believe the likelihood that it is true is increased.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

Diiny wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I understand if nobody wants to move their votes at this point. I just hope that this Bullzeye lynch is the correct choice.
on record, do you believe on the balance of probabilities that he's going to flip scum?
By probabilities, he has the same odds as everyone else.

Or do you mean something else?
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

I understand if nobody wants to move their votes at this point. I just hope that this Bullzeye lynch is the correct choice.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:32 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

RadicalFuzz wrote:His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.

If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?
I've stated my reasons for wanting to lynch you before. I've made my suspicions clear. I'm not going to retype them at this moment in time because they are already existing, and time is running short.

But I have noted your recent, consistent behavior in misreading and discrediting my posts. Many times when I have made a point over the past couple days, you have chosen to address my word usage. You have misrepresented my posts (intentional or not). I brought up an idea to discuss that you linked to my suspicion of you to discredit. And you've also admitted that your behavior at points in this game is scummy, but still seem astonished that I (or Jay or anyone) would call you for it several days later and after you pointed it out first.

You also called me illogical, and I don't even know why. You stated in that post that you skimmed the posts with your name in it, but still managed to come to the conclusion that I am "the worst kind of civilian, who throws logical thought out the window, or scum." That was your response to my ISO of your baddie interactions.

So yeah, I want to lynch you today.
by Marmot
Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:19 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: [END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Replies: 9232
Views: 322658

Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

EBWOP: *stated the interest, not denied.

Return to “[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)”