The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:00 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:59 pm Why was I dead before Day 2?
You were the Mafia night kill on night I think.

[mention]Mafia[/mention] Why did you kill me?

Why was I dead before Day 2?

Been dead since Day 1, but I still have more posts than the host.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:54 pm She called me late last night to say she loved me so
It didn't matter anymore but I say she never cared
And that she never will I'd do it all again
I guess I'll have to wait until then
If I get drunk well I'll pass out
On the floor now baby
You won't bother me no more
If you're drinkin' well you know
That you're my friend and I say
I think I'll have myself a beer

Motel Room has been lynched.

He was
Spoiler: show
Beer, Al-Pieda. During the day you are required to be extremely belligerent towards people. If someone complains to the mod on duty about your behaviour I will mod kill them.

It's night 7. Get yo freaky bitches in.

Nice role [mention]motel room[/mention]

Golden wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 9:10 pm Rezz please

Quin wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 2:24 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 2:18 am That should be in dead lol...
Or should it?

Maybe everyone else is dead and we're not.

That should be in dead lol...

Quin wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 2:15 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 2:14 am Are dead players allowed to vote? I accidentally voted...
If marmot gets to vote, so do I!

Shall we take this game over?

Are dead players allowed to vote? I accidentally voted...

Rezz please

Damn this game is still fun.

NIGHT 1 ACCIDENT REPORT

Sorry folks, lessons are cancelled today and forever. Your climbing guide Marmot has fallen to his death.

His cries were heard from across the valley. A trauma expert happened to be nearby, and was on the scene within 10 minutes. He was greeted by a gruesome spectacle, and a marmot who had clearly died on impact from a climbing-related fall. The distance of the fall was unknown, but presumably upwards of 1,000 ft.

A small section of rope was attached to his harness and severed. Clearly his rope was cut, but by an unknown source.

Please be safe out there.

Lame.

Wow you folks have been busy!!

Save some energy for tomorrow. We start ropework bright and early. The only way we're making it up any rock faces is with the right equipment and knowledge. That takes some time and dedication.

But for now, enjoy the rest of your evening!

One important rule of climbing, always back yourself up. When you're on the side of a giant rock face and a long way from the ground, multiple points of attachment to the wall is ideal for safety. If one of them fails for some reason, you've got a second or even a third option keeping you safe.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 11:46 am He’s retired, doesn’t count.

He wasn't retired when he did that though.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 11:42 am Back in my day ballplayers like Ted Williams would take time off from baseball to be fighter pilots in the war! Men these days are so soft.

R.A. Dickey still does cool stuff.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 11:28 am
Charlie Blackmon of the Colorado Rockies can’t climb rocks?

He comes all the time in the off-season. But he's a busy man these days, but But Black would be none to pleased if Charlie was injured playing around on rocks while his team's in the playoff race.

Good morning everyone.

This is Marmot here, and I'll be your rock climbing instructor for the remainder of this game. I'm glad to see you all here in this wonderful place and ready to climb. You don't have any gear? Oh well that's ok, I'll take care of that for you, and we can begin lessons tomorrow.

Charlie Blackmon, what are you doing here? Oh I see, you just happened to be in the area. Well, I know you can't climb with us, but I'm sure your insight and perception will be helpful nonetheless. I'll need another set of eyes with all these other folks here.

As for the rest of you, thanks for coming! We've got a looong climb ahead of us, so brace yourselves for what stands ahead. You've got a lot to learn, but we'll make it yet.

Doesn't he play baseball now?

Happy birthday [mention]Kites[/mention]!! I hope you die (because you asked for it).

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 10:18 am "The second one never catches mafia"

hyperbole much? i've seen vigs kill scum before.

Yeah, well, I can't recall eve seeing a successful one.

I was a vig once. I nightkilled Golden and he was a civilian. He was pissed.

[mention]Turnip Head[/mention] [mention]Kylemii[/mention] [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] [mention]Quin[/mention] I require your assistance on voting for Option 5.

Will no one join me on Option 5?

dunya wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 8:19 am what's funny, as I was fishing through Mountain Mafia for some Eloh comps, is I came across a post I made about Jay:

"I was pinged by Jay's lack of focus tbh and the fact he didn't direct a single suspicion towards me. That's very unlike him. He usually kills my game when I'm townie, and frustrates me till I start dreaming of rage quitting. :P When I named him as a suspect, I hoped it would trigger a different kind of response where I could be sure of his towniness, as I have been in past games. How will Jay respond? That is a huge tell all in itself."

isn't that funny. he's trying to kill my game here.

That's cuz he's on the other team see

Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 2:02 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 2:01 amIt's literally mathematically provable that it favors the town. Idk what Golden is on about man.
Marmot and I literally mathematically proved this is false. This is why I don't like your townieness, because you seemed to decide this was a fact based on... what exactly? This isn't the puzzle-solving nutella I know.

I did what?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.

I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.

Too bad once you vote it you can't switch away.

The thing I like about the triple lynch is that suddenly, more players will have made meaningful votes.

Instead of Player X being lynched with 6 votes while Players Y & Z live on with 4 votes apiece, all three players are lynched. Instead of Player Y's and Player Z's alignment remaining a mystery going forward to some unknown future time while the players who voted for them continue to have uncertain intentions, they would die immediately, and more information is gained about the players who died, as well as the players who lynched them.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:57 am Thank you Marmot. I have a feeling your alignment guesses are off, as 23-4-4 would be highly civilian slanted. Still, the basic concept of what you are saying is apt.

The question here must then be: going one at a time offers a slight improvement in raw probability while also increasing the probability of night killed civilians during the nights between those one-at-a-time lynches. One can also say to be fair that the increased time frame adjusts the raw probability further in an ideal world, to some unknowable degree.

Is it an agreeable trade?

I will stop screaming and allow others to pipe in.

I can crunch numbers, but I can only conjecture on whether it's better for town to have 2 extra days of discussion while those three players are lynched, or to get as much information as possible as quickly as possible, or some other benefit that either option will provide.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:33 am
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:31 am The same math applies to the single day version though
The probability of a single civilian correctly identifying two mafia members out of 7 players (5v3 minus self) in one try is .286 -- the number Golden reported. There is no multiplication.

No it's not. 2 mafia members out of 7 is .286 of the players. The probability of selecting 2 mafia members from a group of 7 players is .0476 (4.76%), a much lower rate.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:55 am
Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:27 am
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:26 amif we catch even just one mafia tomorrow i think #6 would be worth it.
If you catch one mafia for every three lynches town loses.

For this to be successful we HAVE to catch two.
mathematically sure, but mafia isn't 100% math.

catching the first mafia member of a team opens up avenues for finding the rest of them.

linki oh god you guys are doing actual mathematics

It was all fun and games while we talked about math.

Then someone actually did math...

Oh hi Sloonei, you like numbers?

Simple scenario regarding the maths. I will make some assumptions on this. One player will die each night, and that one player who will die flips civilian. Also, that there are two teams of 4 mafia each, and that all independent players count as civilian here, leaving 8 mafia and 23 civilian roles in the game.

SCENARIO 1 - We lynch 3 players in one day.

We lynch three players tomorrow. Assuming there are 30 players alive after Night 1, the following odds result from this.

Lynching 0 mafia = 37.9%
Lynching 1 mafia = 45.5%
Lynching 2 mafia = 15.2%
Lynching 3 mafia = 1.4%

SCENARIO 2 - We lynch 1 player tomorrow ( I won't get into the math of the other options now).

We lynch one player each of the next three days, allowing two nightkills to happen in the process (2 more dead civilians over those three lynches). The following odds result over that span.

Lynching 0 mafia = 36.3%
Lynching 1 mafia = 46.0%
Lynching 2 mafia = 16.2%
Lynching 3 mafia = 1.5%

Addendum: yes this requires assumptions. The odds are pretty similar, slightly edging having the tri-fecta lynch. Additionally, Scenario 2 requires that two players are nightkilled by the time the third player is lynched, adding two additional deaths to the toll.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:57 pm Hell, I gain an advantage if someone should pull or bop me.

BOP SPRITYO

I was about to do a statistical analysis of Syndicate games to see what the top three vote-getters were alignment-wise. Then I realized that the effect is lost if people don't realize they're lynching the top three players, so the point would not help.

[mention]Charlie Blackmon[/mention] you'll be pleased to know a new emoji can be found in the post editing page. Enjoy.

[mention]Charlie Blackmon[/mention] I miss that emoji. Thanks for bringing it back. <3

And I think you mean Charlie Blackmon.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:22 pm now epignosis is forcing me to learn baseball terminology

I got u

Going with Option 5 so that one player may have the power.

Mwuahahahahahahahaha...

Remember that just because we lynch three players doesn't mean we each get three votes. We likely each only get one. That's the biggest downside of Option 6. Each of us only has the say to lynch one of the three players, and no say (with our vote) to lynch the other two.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:36 pm At this juncture this game has more posts than Turf Wars and Talking Heads combined had AT THE CONCLUSION OF NIGHT 1.

You're doing a great job chap.

I think there's something to be said about a civ treestump supporting Option #6.

Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:35 pm
Golden wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:31 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 8:29 pm #6 is extremely pro-civilian. Vote it now!
Seems extremely pro-mafia to me.
I thought this at first, but then I thought about it and Jay is definitely right. Think about it. We'd most likely end up lynching the same people within the next couple days, and if they end up being civ, then that sucks but it sucks more if we waste three days doing it. Better to get that over with early and learn from it, and odds are we'll lynch someone bad and have much better direction going forward.
I strongly disagree.

The town will control the top lynch. It won’t be at all difficult for the mafia to control the second and third. The idea that you just march on and lynch those people anyway is demonstrably false, often second place in an early lynch survives the whole game. I cannot overstate how strongly this option favours mafia.

What’s more generally speaking speeding up the rate of death in any given fashion is considered not to alter balance so for jay to make this claim is HIGHLY suspect.

And that's where you ride in on blazing saddled unicorn pumping your rainbow-spewing fist in the air and bring it smashing down on those scum who think that can control that lynch.

Oh lol, Golden already said what I did.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:25 pm Mmm okay Jay's right. We're bound to mislynch people early anyway but with 3 top suspects getting lynched at least one of them will definitely be bad and in any case they will give us a ton of info to work with. I'm in support of #6 and voting accordingly.

All of my vote analysis in Ancient Greece suggests that this will not happen.

Then again, we have two mafia teams here.

Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 8:15 pm Oh, well, hello everyone. I'm Charlie Blackmon. Center-fielder for the Colorado Rockies.

Hi I'm Marmot, pleasure.

Search found 158 matches