The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:10 pmAlso maybe whores.

whyyy

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:38 pmShould I be expected to do all the work for you Kyle?

you are expected to explain yourself when you drop opinions and vague accusations, yeah. i expect and appreciate that

His decent reads/hunting for baddies, SVS's posts to name just two factors of many.

okay first of all you're implying that speedchuck didn't just get off of a 2 game baddie win streak in which he faked scumhunting enough to avoid suspicion pretty much entirely, which he absolutely did. but second of all. I wasn't present for any of that? all I knew of speedchuck was that he was publically confirmed town by a role and later on a role that confirmed living players role alignments as the opposite of what they really were showed up. the most logical conclusion was that those two facts were directly related. no one was talking about speedchuck's pre-merger scumhunting record and its not like his scumhunting in this thread wasn't super impressive or anything. his defenses required specific roles to exist and I didn't trust that.

also what SVS posts are you talking about?

The Chuck vote reeks of mafia involvement.

okay. but why? what do you think either mafia would have to gain from his death? do you think speed was specifically targeted or are you thinking his lynch was a Wilgy save?

[mention]DharmaHelper[/mention]

it has a lot to do with anything cus you're acting as if speedchuck flipping civ should have been an expected result when everything indicated that the opposite thing would take place

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:11 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:10 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:54 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:22 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:08 am

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:03 am Kylemii voting for chuck makes me feel ok about my calling him out randomly.

why do you say that? tell me one thing that should have indicated that he wasn't a mafia member

@DharmaHelper like for real what makes my vote for speedchuck stand out to you over every other player who came to the exact same conclusion as I did

You seem to have come to the exact same conclusion as everyone else, not the other way around. Very important distinction.

bc it was the most likely conclusion. any combination of events where speedchuck wasn't bad would have involved a bunch of unknowable variables being in place.

you also didn't answer my question. what indication was there that speedchuck wasn't mafia?

What does that have to do with anything? There were indications that Chuck would flip civ.

yes that's exactly what I'm asking, what were they?

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:54 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:22 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:08 am

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:03 am Kylemii voting for chuck makes me feel ok about my calling him out randomly.

why do you say that? tell me one thing that should have indicated that he wasn't a mafia member

@DharmaHelper like for real what makes my vote for speedchuck stand out to you over every other player who came to the exact same conclusion as I did

You seem to have come to the exact same conclusion as everyone else, not the other way around. Very important distinction.

bc it was the most likely conclusion. any combination of events where speedchuck wasn't bad would have involved a bunch of unknowable variables being in place.

you also didn't answer my question. what indication was there that speedchuck wasn't mafia?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:08 am

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:03 am Kylemii voting for chuck makes me feel ok about my calling him out randomly.

why do you say that? tell me one thing that should have indicated that he wasn't a mafia member

[mention]DharmaHelper[/mention] like for real what makes my vote for speedchuck stand out to you over every other player who came to the exact same conclusion as I did

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:03 am Kylemii voting for chuck makes me feel ok about my calling him out randomly.

why do you say that? tell me one thing that should have indicated that he wasn't a mafia member

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:56 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:54 pm that's not what I asked

or at least not what I was trying to ask...

you keep implying that it's unlikely for you to be on one mafia team or the other for some reason and I want to know why?

Nutella couldn't use her role on a teammate iirc

oh, i thought he meant like because of votes or something

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]

that's not what I asked

or at least not what I was trying to ask...

you keep implying that it's unlikely for you to be on one mafia team or the other for some reason and I want to know why?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:34 pmBut A. it puts me on the evens,

plz explain how

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:14 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:16 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:37 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:04 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:57 pm Aubergine *Speedchuck*
He will flip civ; he isn't
He is a baddie

How?

I explained this oh
oh, eighty five times or so
the eighty sixth time

Will be post haiku
It as to do with LCs role
and et cetera

Long Con's role doesn't cause someone's living role to appear in the thread with an affiliation in the middle of the phase. I raised this point before and you dismissed it as "semantics." For you to be correct, the hosts have to be lying about what Long Con's role actually says.

You have not read
anything I have said, have you.
OK, it's like this.

LC mad him look
Civ, SOMEONE ELSE, a civ role,
Revealed his "civ" role

NOT Nutella, a
*Second party* please don't make
me keep saying this

I don't really understand. You suspect speedchuck but you don't think Nutella used her role on him, but instead think that long con used his role to make speedchuck look like a civ and a separate unknown truthful revealer role also targeted speedchuck? is this by coincidence or by plan, and isn't this just like.... the same theory as the most common theory about Speedchuck except with a bunch of extra steps and unknowns thrown in to reach kind of the same conclusion?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:26 pm SVS is the only person who can defend me, understanding that it doesn't make sense for me to be Strexcorp.

Aaaaaannnddd she puts me on the Evil Evens.

wait why?

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:58 pmBgood things to look for, indeed. Could be a smear campaign for nutella if speed was civ. I don't have a reason yet laid out on why speed would be her target. She had already lost a life, so maybe she was feeling the heat to expend her power?

If speed is mafia, he is either on Strex or a 3rd mafia team, should it exist. 100%.

If speed is civ, there is a civ identity revealer out there, that had a one-shot ability like nutella had.

that's not exactly what I'm saying really. I'm saying that if speedchuck is civ, and his presented theory of what happened actually happened then there would be one player who would know his innocence by necessity, since a player who had a true flip dump type role would probably know that they did it. if i were in the position of the player with the hypothetical flip revealy power id be fighting like hell to clear things up. so the biggest problem I see with speedchuck's explanation is that that sort of thing *isn't* happening, or at least doesn't seem to be.

also aubergine [VOTE: speed] aubergine

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:03 amI wanna hear the general idea in your words how you currently interpret them.

alright, so the argument for speedchuck lynch seems to be primarily related to his public flip, being host confirmed as civ followed by nutella's flip as a mafia member with a role that creates fake flips. speedchuck's argument against this seems to be that from his point of view there must be a "one of us only tells the truth and the other only tells lies" counterpart to nutella's role, which is basically the only thing he actually could present in his defense of the Nutella thing. 3 problems, why would speedchuck make an ideal target for a power like that? If such a role existed I would expect the player that has it to be defending speedchuck from the suspicion they had unintentionally put upon him, so I guess that would be a thing to look out for. Problem 3, if speedchuck's public flip was the result of a different role than nutella's then doesn't that mean that nutella's role went unused?

wilgy's deal is a little more nebulous, which is usual for wilgy I guess. there seems to be multiple people who want to lynch Wilgy for different and sometimes intersecting reasons. ive seen meta related reasoning that Wilgy is more serious than usual which is a tendency for his baddie gameplay. there's also talk of his previous role seeming like a role which would be more effective in the hands of the mafia. there's also Sloonei(?) and.... DH's(or was it epi's???) reasoning that because sprityo was killed following the immigration of Cerberus that his killer was more likely to be a part of the immigrating group. Sloonei worked down the group to Wilgy using poe and he was left with Wilgy as the most likely killer of that group.

that's the understanding I get from my limited experience in the thread, I am confident that I'm missing out on some nuance, and would appreciate any gap-filling that may occur. as of right now I'd be more inclined to lynch speed out of the two.

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:27 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:01 pm I don't think Marmot responds to INH's vocaroo link the way he did if he and wilgy are partners. That effectively renders wilgy's role useless.

I also assume wilgy is an Even rather than strexcorp based on thr Night 8 kill. This hinges on the theory that the Evens are killing on even nights while strex kills on odd nights. We could put more research into that. The theory which has been raised is that sprit has to have been killed by a newcomer from Cerberus after LoRab pressed the button, but I think that theory is baloney. That said, if the assumptions about nightkill mechanisms hold true, then somebody from the Evil Evens needed to have been active in Pikachu on Night 8 to kill sprityo. POE has more or less ruled out everyone but Wilgy (for me, at least) from that grouping. His first role seems like it could easily have been anti-town, not that that's been an entirely reliable metric in this game. I stand by my strong suspicion of him and am inclined to guess that he is an Even with nutella and Long Con.

What about Kyle?
I have him as a null-bad read right now. I’ve brought this up before but he’s like Tonya Harding to me- just skating along the edges and probably holding a dark secret.

He’s offered to do ISOs on people early on, but didn’t. When pressed again by me, he said he’d get around to it. Did amounted to a few reads on some people. Then the rest of the game, to be brutally honest, has been a game of 20 questions from him, except it’s more like 200 questions and there’s no end to the game in sight. Call it falling behind (which is entirely possible, since he was in 3+ games simultaneously) but it feels like a crutch to keep up the ‘what’s going on’ routine this late in the game

okay first of all, chill, dude. I've got things going on, sometimes promises get broken. my schedule got more complicated when I got promoted to fish guy and at the same time that this game's amount of content literally tripled in size, so I'm a little behind, and yes definitely more than a little bit disengaged.

I like to ask a lot of questions to find out what's important and what I should focus on during my digs so I can be more efficient and only spend time on things that are worthwhile or relevant. work smarter not harder is like 90% of my strategy in everything in life.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:17 am Kylemii's interactions regarding Marmot are not convincing. They look phony.

what interactions?

i feel like i'm so behind... i've been kinda telling myself that i don't really need to read the entire Pikachu thread to like... feel engaged, but I still feel like I know less than I could know if I'd read everything. maybe i should just bite the bullet...

can someone please summarize the arguments for and against both speed and wilgy? i think i generally get the idea but would appreciate seeing the two sides of each layed out neatly.

sorry i missed the vote, I was chilling with Lenny in Seattle at the time and basically forgot about mafia completely.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:27 pm Someone protect SVS.

She is a civ.

plz explain

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:17 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:10 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:25 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:53 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:52 pm I've been around a bit today. I'd also like to emphasize the "doesn't make any sense for me to be nutella's teammate" angle and see what people think about that.

What angle is that?

If we were teammates nutella wouldn't have been the one hit by my bomb

what bomb?

Last person to vote for him got a bomb, it's in the day 6 Lynch post.

ohhhhh is that how Nutella was daykilled

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:25 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:53 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:52 pm I've been around a bit today. I'd also like to emphasize the "doesn't make any sense for me to be nutella's teammate" angle and see what people think about that.

What angle is that?

If we were teammates nutella wouldn't have been the one hit by my bomb

what bomb?

this game is now my sole thing of attention, as far as mafia goes, because I was rudely murdered to death. i will have some time during the latter half of this eweek for reading things so I will take that opportunity to dig into 'chu

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:23 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:18 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:27 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:56 pm The difference between our speculations is that we know one exists(existed) and one is entirely speculation.

Yes, you know nutella better than I do, but predicting how she plays a role is circumstantial. I, conversely, don’t like hoarding cool powers, but sometimes I do.

I think balance would require that they both exist. As I said multiple times, I was at the front of the "Chuck is Bad" queue, but if he is not LC's teammate, I have problems with that. Either he is LCs teammate, or he is Nutellas target. Not both. I just find the opportunism disturbing. The thread based reasons for him being bad are totally contradicted by him potentially being Nutellas target. The moon comes out in the morning and the Sun shines at the North Pole on New Years day if Chuck is bad but not LCs teammate.

After I took flak for "railroading" LC, this readiness to turn on someone for a reveal in a game where nothing is known or predictable is something I find ill done.

And that's all I have to say about that.

I don't know if this was said, but nutella can't target her own teammate, and LC and nutella were teammates. Do you think nutella was not LC's teammate?

Excuse me if I am misunderstanding your argument.

No, I don't think that. I think either Chuck is LCs teammate OR he is not bad. For Nutella to have flipped him civ, he would have to be on Marmots team, and why the hell would Chuck go out on a limb like that for LC if he was a baddie on the other team?

i think placing him on Marmots team makes zero sense. And if he was on LC's team, then Nutella could not have faux flipped him. You can't have both.

My argument is that if there is a baddie faux role flipper there prolly is a true flipper, too. Becasue a world with Chuck bad on a team opposed to LC makes no sense at all.

Is there historical precedence for this? in terms of games and roles from the past year