The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:05 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:49 am Would a prudent towny go to bed when i had 7 votes on me like she did?

It’s a reasonable question. I can’t blame SPF for needing to sleep, but I don’t go to bed early in a day phase and let a wagon sit at L-2. I unvote or move just to stall a hammer.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:59 pm

EllieDelight wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:56 pm i swear i work all day to try to prove I'm town, or at least the leasy cummy of the scums but i go to work and suddenly since i can't defend myself im lead wagon

Don't get fired, come back, say your piece, and I will listen.

Let's please keep our hands off of the hammer, thanks.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:01 pm Whatever we do, it seems like there's more to talk about. Let's please ensure folks have a chance to do that.

I know we're not close to a hammer right now, but still

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:32 pm I endorse a Michelle chop. I spare the vote to prevent the hammer.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:39 pm I defer to the rest of town on when to hammer. I am at peace with an Ellie bake, but I am in no hurry. If anyone else wants more time, you should have it.

I'm just kinda detaching and letting myself think.

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:15 am Gonna do this bit by bit cuz otherwise i'll never post it....
this is starting from maybe an hour from time of post to when SPF claimed JK. If you have something to add to this lmk. If you have something you want to change about what you've said or correct your self or whatever, also say.
I avoided "alison is bad because she's teammates with X" (sorry J) or post like " Alison, ur so baddd omgggg"

Tutuu Re:Alison
Tutuu

Spoiler: show

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:31 pm doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:44 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:26 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:15 pm Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:54 pm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:45 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before

I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

i find grogu and doom's behaviors weird, alison and dkkoba have had no reactions

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:35 am so hyped that i wanna post while resting between sets

assuming no cc,

spf - jailkeeper. n1 nutella n2 tutuu
made - cop. n1 holster n2 michelle town
michelle - peeked town

tutuu

leaves me with:
alison
doom
koba
esooa
grogu
jjj
nanook

we can make 2 more misyeets, even if mafia vigs someone we don't lose our 2 free attempts. also if spf manages to jailkeep exactly the mafia killer tonight we win a 3rd free misyeet and potentially auto win, gl gl @staypositivefriend

god my abs hurt and i cant breathe

lets go with 2 free misyeets, that pool of 7 i can reduce to 7-2=5, and the 3 mafia are there and i cant make a mistake. therefore i simply need to find 5-3=2 townreads among that list of 7 and i have auto

trustfall:

alison - had some logical inconsistencies that i think arent an attribute of her scum game; had some stern and towny tonal posts of "stop scumreading me ur playing poorly", has been pretty reasonable and has pushed the game forward
*snip*

----------------

distrustfull:

alison - is capable of being uber towny as scum, is capable of doing pretty much all of her posts she has posted this game as scum, was content with the status quo and poe on day 1 which we now see was completely and entirely wrong
*snip*

i just realized all of this effort is for nothing if someone cc's so lol me, but, wont be the first time i feel embarassed at myself and wont be the last so whatever

1 more set

out of the trustfalls i found it easiest to come up with esooa and weirdly enough grogu. and hardest to come up with jjj and nanook

out of the distrustfalls i found it easiest to come up with alison and doom. hardest to come up with .... jjj and nanook once again. which is bizarre.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:31 pm doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:44 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:26 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:15 pm Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:19 am JaggedJimmyJay RE: Alison

Spoiler: show

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:47 pm If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:04 pm @jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?

It was my analyses of her interactions within my POE. I began assessing with this POE: [Alison, Omega, Grogu, DK, Esooa] and found that Alison is a poor fit with both Omega and Esooa. So for her to be mafia, if my assessments are accurate, she would have to be teamed with exactly Grogu and DK. That is on its own power unlikely, and if not then that means 1) she's town, 2) my analyses of Omega/Esooa were flawed, or 3) she would fit better with someone outside my POE instead.

I haven't looked into #3 yet. But then she popped in with her legacy and I think it looks pretty authentic. So my current feeling is that #1 is the answer.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:41 pm @Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:

For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:48 am I agree with nutella in that, at least right this moment, I struggle to conceptualize the game without Alison being mafia. She serves as a ringleader of sorts and allows town to cannibalize, all while ushering the bad consensus onward from a place of relative detachment. She could be carrying lower-volume players or teamed with a goat, but I really doubt the team is something like [Grogu, Omega, DK] or something similarly easy-world.

Doesn't mean she's evil and I'll always keep listening blah blah, but that's where I'm at.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:17 am I suppose tutuu and Alison both would fit the "started hot and tailed off" stencil shape for mafia

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:35 am SPF Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:39 am the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:30 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:29 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:24 pm @Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:07 am Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

^^two posts from alison from yesterday that pinged me at the time, and ping me slightly more now. they are focused on asserting the incorrect consensus POE while downplaying the possibility of tinfoils in the "middle" slots.

in fairness to alison, she started entertaining "tinfoil" shortly after making this post, but i want to present these for posterity's sake

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:40 pm hello, i'm at work and don't have a ton of time to dedicate to my solving right now, but i'm staying caught up with the thread and i will drop my two cents when i have the ability

i would like to chime in and say that i am personally not interested in a DOOM chop today. i feel that her posts in the last hour or so have a respectable amount of town equity, and even if i'm wrong about that fact, there is zero world where DOOM!scum survives until the endgame. if she is scum, then her lynch is somewhat of an inevitability. in that regard, i would like to go for a deeper scum today. my gut and my brain are currently pointing me to alison, but i'm not married to that stance just yet. however, i do not personally feel that alison has towntold yet today.

i do feel that nanook and tutuu have, though

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 am thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:39 am i'm confused about the claim that alison is "frozen" when she hasn't posted. if she hasn't posted isn't it possible that's asleep, or distracted, or etc?

i'm far from opposed to considering an alison scum!world, but that seems like a leap

hi Doom, ur next!

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:40 am

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:22 am nutella Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:59 pm wait but that logic implies she's with alison

and i dont really think that


so no i'm not sure what's wrong with that take

i think i agreed with her that it looked bad for grogu

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:48 pm Koba flipping out at jay, and their general vibe coming into this gamestate, is super likely scum imo. I'm still going for Alison first but I think they fit together (and Alison's reaction to the Jay/Koba interaction was so opposite from mine so...yeah)

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:28 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:28 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:08 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:44 pm I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

If I am scum what advantage does this give me over just laying down some generic cheap townread on nook and either killing him at night if I genuinely believe he's a PR or just going about my business if I don't

Just because I can come and argue that I would have killed nook if I was scum?

Yes

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:08 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:44 pm I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:09 pm like i know that sounds confbiasy but my impression is it's legitimately a strategy scum alison would consciously use

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:03 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:07 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:08 pm Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

this wasn't enough for alison to dismiss looking at a deepwolf esooa world

what "brute force" do i have compared to esooa? i was pretty forceful about michelle early d2 and backed off of even that, otherwise been pretty chill

idgi

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:25 pm in order to not be too hypocritical (hi papa sloon) i prob should consider esooa more (and this is another one idk why alison isn't) bc she fits the same ""archetype"" of having pushed tons of townies

and mac warned us about her scumrange

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:59 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:55 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:50 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:19 pm

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:21 pm my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol

This is very bad post. Not only is clear I am town, but Alison is clearly town also. This is concerning post, didn’t you post you used to be a monster at this game? You are as clueless as I am.
Monster inc. type of monster you are

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:59 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:55 pm

why do I hate this post

if i'm reading it right it's kind of leaning on alison being mafia and grogu being their teammate but jumping to a vote on grogu instead of alison? idk

still think esooa is fine, but she's probably where i reevaluate first if alison flips town

miss quoted something. think i fixed it....

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:43 am Doom RE: Alison

Spoiler: show

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:35 pm It's weird to me because why does mafia Alison choose Nutella to go on, when that is a harder road than others.

Maybe she is town? hmm

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:32 pm I still want to vote Alison for the dropping of the town read of me for no seeable reason other than needing a spot in poe

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:15 pm I like all of the Alison voters though, meh I think I am fine with it

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:59 pm I think there being so much consensus on Alison makes me want to not kill her lmao

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:08 pm If Koba is mafia, I find that she spews SPF town, with what seem like a couple pocket like attempts.

Koba did not give much on Alison, which could be a likely partner, same with Grogu

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:49 am Grogu re: alison

Spoiler: show

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:47 pm This is the most I ever posted on a game by far I believe. I must have like 200 posts. That’s ridiculous.
Also I have been forthcoming the whole game. I have struggled to see “scum”.
I have felt that neither do most players here as shown by who we baked so far.
I think the leaders are leading us to hell.

That being said:
I don’t see why tutuu gets shot by scum...
I believe she’s likely scum, but I don’t know how to prove that or look at posts and say: there I found the clues.
People I don’t trust either:
koba, jagged, esso and the aforementioned tuttuu but this later one I’m not sure about.
Trust me or not, we are all wrong and I highly believe Alison is another miss. They are like me and omega just easy low hanging fruits. If any of us is scum is likely omega since someone said he was a great player and I have yet to see that so he’s likely fooling us.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:55 pm Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:19 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:17 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:16 pm @Alison vote essoa

no. see my post

I think you are town. If I have to vote you to save myself I will. Therefore you are going to Jill yourself or kill me and that’s going to result in town flip. Do you but I guarantee you die before me FYI

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:18 pm Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:58 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:23 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:20 pm I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:53 am Made re: Alison

Spoiler: show

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:54 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:52 pm I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:51 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:34 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:28 am let's say it this way: If we mislynch, we should reevaluate everything.

I think Alison is shifty. yes, her/your if x then y makes sense, but what i'm saying is that's something that helps you/her, alison, to determine if she trust Esooa's read. it feels over explainy.
I think nutella is shifty because of interaction with JJJ who is my biggest scum read
I think i trust tutuu most, which is a 180 from where i was like 3 pages

I don't have enough trust in anyone to make a towncore, especially one based on mindmelds when they aren't alignment indicative.

I also also don't like how Alison positioned Mac (i think it was alison?) as a person who could break up towncore if he shows up and is bad. It implies that the only reason someone would have to break up a towncore would be because they're bad.

This all feels too fast and far too loose and i'm not liking none of it at towncore building stage

Saying my post was over explainy is fine. Calling it gaslighting and manipulative makes no sense. Those two accusations don't track together, either.

Why is JJJ scummy, and what interaction does nut have with him that makes her look bad?

The towncore people are townreading each other for reasons beyond mindmelds. If you don't trust the towncore, more power to you, but it's not accurate to say that they're just mindlessly sheeping each other because of mindmelds.

Also it's nanook who posited that, but also you're taking that whole take out of context anyway. The idea was that JJJ would not panic despite being in the POE as scum if he has a scum buddy competent enough to turn the tables.

I don't like the passive voices i've highlighed here

further, i feel like if Alison wasn't bad, mafia would jump at opportunity to follow the case to get her lynched. Sure, they could of just went with the Lc->ellie->Made->michelle->spf plan, but like i don't see a reason not to add Alison to the list of players to push. there would of been no pushback from 3 town (me, michelle, spf, tutuu, and so on), maybe even more.

Yeah, I'm tunneling a bit, but I should be able to come out of it like i did on tutuu when reading other players....

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:59 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:21 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:08 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:57 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:52 am Okay y'all. Write out your hypotetical towncores, because i don't think they line up.

Like Alison, SPF isn't even in your towncore???

They don't even have to. Not everyone in the towncore has to share the exact same reads. It's about a critical mass of trust coming into play. Sure, I may not have a solid reason to trust X personally, but I don't have any particular suspicion on them, and I trust Y and Z greatly, and Y and Z both trust X. So I extend trust to X as a result of that, and take them out of the POE. I don't need to directly townread everyone else in the towncore so much as I do need to not scumread them and trust that my actual townreads can read them.

I get that. it's about consolidating around trust.
but like there doesn't seem to be much if any overlap, unless you define towncore to be a process where trust is defined implicitly: Where the people who are trusted the most trust the reads of the people they trust most and a PoE appears organically, but that doesn't not sound like what towncore is.

towncore from my understanding is an explict list of players who town trust. sure, the list isn't going to be the same exact for all players-- one person off here one person off there-- but what it feels like you're describing here as a towncore is a town daisychain.
I think the difference there is less than just semantic

I mean I think there's significant overlap

Alison's investment in towncore at this point i'd say is pretty AI

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:57 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

Agreed, Alison is very awkward here.

Reasons I’m voting Alison rn

1. Bad Day on vote record
2. Awkward around the PR reveals

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:20 am in light of me, made, michelle, and ellie all being town, it's obvious that the scum have been manipulating this game and pulling it into a certain narrative. i felt consistently throughout yesterday that something was "weird" about this game - and it's obvious now that the thing i found so weird was the fact that the scum was bruteforcing the POE into a specific direction

in my opinion, a reveal like this should make every town player here start their reads over from scratch & use that information to determine who's been pushing the game into a direction that's advantageous for scum

Or town have been hard pushing town

Either way I’m not starting from scratch lol

okay, i'm just gonna brain dumping and see if we can build it into anything that makes sense
two scenaros:
Situation . Mafia has been running train on thread: JJJ,nutella, alison
Situation . Mafia has just been going with that flow: tutuu, nanook, grogu, doom

i'm starting to have real doubt about it being nutella wolf because:
1. that means they didn't give nutella the kill day one, which means they have probably an even townier person to give the kill (or they vig'd night one. Is there reason not to vig n1?)
2. Mac, Nanook, JJJ, LC, Tutuu, and Alison have all consistently ruled her out till this point. she deserves the win if this is the case tbh

in Situation the confusion we've felt has come from dissenting voice that just didn't make sense. Alison is good at logicing, if she's town, hopefully there's enough here for her to win it for us. if she's not town, then boom, got one. basically, @Alison solve the game or we're baking you (if ur not too busy, thx )

Doom has also been saying she has felt super confused this game, so that's not a green check but a point to weigh in her. Especially if we're in Situation and not Situation

I feel like confusion vibes more with a Situation but, someone made the point that this game maybe the kind of game that needs to be supported by analysis, and not just vibes. so again, @Alison , u got this!!! unless you don't in which case

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:56 am Michelle did her own Re:Alison because she's great

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:42 pm idk how big can be an Iso for Alison, but I want to reach a post I remember from the middle of day 1
here are signs of possible agenda in every post.

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:14 am ordered

Bombs
DkKoba
JJJ

Removal
Esooa
nanook

Evasion
nutella
lurkers/one-posters
tutuu

Aggro
SPF

Duds
LC

LC is the first push made by Alison

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:19 am Dk is inno child by the way. Threadspewed/TMI'd out the ass and has not trended down in terms of tone after being townread by half the game.

pocketing Dk here I think

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:28 am I'm sorry about the rand michelle

this 'joke' was meant to start a discussion who succeed to put me in the Poe and is agenda-y

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:37 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:36 am idk if there's one in esooa/tutuu ehhh

could be one in jay/made, prolly made

I veto jay

I have one reason to townread him but I think it's a really reliable and good reason

pocketing Jay, and if Alison is wolf the possibility of being with Nutella are pretty high

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:37 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:36 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:34 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:28 am I'm sorry about the rand michelle

the alison mindmelds go on and on and on

I don't like this. y'alls last mindmeld alison was bad?

nutella and me mindmeld regardless of our respective alignments, I don't think she even sees it as AI at this point she's just using it as a fancy "I agree"

well, the regardless thingy is a curious choice of words

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:55 am

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:54 am Alison is town i think, i can feel it

why am I town for explaining the mtg joke?

She looks like she wanted to discredit me for the read. Discussing and questioning town reads on themselves are bold wolf tactics, and Alison if wolf can play like this

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:58 am esooa/tutuu is probably T/T

swap tutuu with DoO in my POE and I am happy with it.

These are changes made with the thread's flow

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:59 am I actually think Made is the highest scum equity player here because they can be scum in like every world but Michelle/Omega etc. have their scum equity reduced if Made isn't scum (becauase it doesn't make sense to pocket or TMI him in that situation)

constructing world so early is a known scum tactic but here she expressed it in a way that looked like she is clearing me and Omega if Made flips scum. Looked like a real thought, and was a thing who was strengthening my town read on Alison then

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:15 am The tell is that I think nutella mafia would pretend to be cagey about townreading me due to fake suspicion about being pocketed, which would simultaneously discredit me and make her look like a Paranoid Townie.

nutella town just says whatever's on her mind and what she really believes without thinking about how it makes her look.

I understand such take about Nutella, but what if they are both part of the scum team?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:17 am

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:15 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:56 am both michelle and daughterofomega have given weird townreads of made that are out of tune with the rest of the thread


is that just the team lmao

Sometimes you have to realize that the evil want to fit in and gain the innocent's favor. You want to attack the people on their own, or giving takes that put themselves outside of the majority. This is something that some town do, because their ideas and thoughts are genuine, and instead of tailoring their responses to gain credit, they just say what is true to them.

Any credit given to this slot for posting thoughts that go against the grain should be revoked because they are clearly aware it is a townie thing to do and are fishing for cred for it

a chain full of wifom
the shade for Omega can be distancing if Alison is scum

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:23 am why is coming back to thread a towntell in general actually? I've seen it waved around a bit but like I do it extensively as both alignments and it's always because:

1) I like playing mafia and decided I want to play more
2) I have new thoughts about the game to share
3) I said I was going to sleep but I had insomnia again

and all three things are NAI

Alison disagrees what Nanook said is a town tell for me, even if she knows this is a habit I have and she put effort in showing he is wrong.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:36 am I think my towncore is Dk, Esooa, JJJ, nutella, tutuu, maybe nook. Unless I am being completely outplayed this should be close enough to the truth (if not just the straight truth) to roll over the game given the players involved.

the coloured word is preparing for her being wrong because she may be outplayed. I saw Alison villager at MU, she was not afraid of being outplayed, I don't remember this, and she found me villager even if I was just gif posting

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:34 am I feel like this is the kind of game where you just form a towncore and then roll them over with brute force

also where is LC

again, push for LC but not a direct case

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:56 am

EllieDelight wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:56 am lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

looks like TMI

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:57 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:47 am @esooa -

coming into today, you seemed especially certain that i was mafia

has learning that i'm town recontextualized your understanding of the game? has it made you consider a world where you could have been pocketed by someone pushing the same agenda?

it seems your focus is on tutuu, and that's a good avenue to explore today, but i'm especially curious about your thoughts in players like nutella/jagged/alison

it makes me scum read jjj way more. I still am uncertain on the possibility of Nutella being scum, I just don't see it in her demeanor and such, but she's definitely deserving of a re-read atp. I already scum read Alison a lot

only one I could find from Esooa

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:59 am Alison on herself

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:33 pm So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:28 pm I'm posting in between classes and can't keep up with the speed of the thread. I'm gonna finish everything up and hopefully find time to play. Can the people who have me at the bottom of their scumlists please explain why (unless you already have) because I don't enjoy it when all the townie shit I do gets dismissed as "Alison could have faked this as scum, oh well, everyone else is townie, guess she's the exe by default".

If you're going to exe me off that you better commit to sheeping my solve after I flip.

Made wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:00 am Last only post from Nanook

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:20 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:16 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:09 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:15 pm Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

I did not lol, but that was a silly reason to TR me—I “soft” a PR in most games I play, or so I’m told, by saying stuff like “you can’t kill me” or “I’m literally confirmed town” when I’m not.

I think there was a particularly insistent way you repeated it that went beyond playstyle/WIFOM but eh. How come you didn't seem at all curious why I had a tight-lipped townread on you?

I figured it would come out eventually

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:33 pm So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:28 pm I'm posting in between classes and can't keep up with the speed of the thread. I'm gonna finish everything up and hopefully find time to play. Can the people who have me at the bottom of their scumlists please explain why (unless you already have) because I don't enjoy it when all the townie shit I do gets dismissed as "Alison could have faked this as scum, oh well, everyone else is townie, guess she's the exe by default".

If you're going to exe me off that you better commit to sheeping my solve after I flip.

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:54 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:52 pm I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:51 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:34 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:28 am let's say it this way: If we mislynch, we should reevaluate everything.

I think Alison is shifty. yes, her/your if x then y makes sense, but what i'm saying is that's something that helps you/her, alison, to determine if she trust Esooa's read. it feels over explainy.
I think nutella is shifty because of interaction with JJJ who is my biggest scum read
I think i trust tutuu most, which is a 180 from where i was like 3 pages

I don't have enough trust in anyone to make a towncore, especially one based on mindmelds when they aren't alignment indicative.

I also also don't like how Alison positioned Mac (i think it was alison?) as a person who could break up towncore if he shows up and is bad. It implies that the only reason someone would have to break up a towncore would be because they're bad.

This all feels too fast and far too loose and i'm not liking none of it at towncore building stage

Saying my post was over explainy is fine. Calling it gaslighting and manipulative makes no sense. Those two accusations don't track together, either.

Why is JJJ scummy, and what interaction does nut have with him that makes her look bad?

The towncore people are townreading each other for reasons beyond mindmelds. If you don't trust the towncore, more power to you, but it's not accurate to say that they're just mindlessly sheeping each other because of mindmelds.

Also it's nanook who posited that, but also you're taking that whole take out of context anyway. The idea was that JJJ would not panic despite being in the POE as scum if he has a scum buddy competent enough to turn the tables.

I don't like the passive voices i've highlighed here

further, i feel like if Alison wasn't bad, mafia would jump at opportunity to follow the case to get her lynched. Sure, they could of just went with the Lc->ellie->Made->michelle->spf plan, but like i don't see a reason not to add Alison to the list of players to push. there would of been no pushback from 3 town (me, michelle, spf, tutuu, and so on), maybe even more.

Yeah, I'm tunneling a bit, but I should be able to come out of it like i did on tutuu when reading other players....

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:59 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:21 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:08 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:57 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:52 am Okay y'all. Write out your hypotetical towncores, because i don't think they line up.

Like Alison, SPF isn't even in your towncore???

They don't even have to. Not everyone in the towncore has to share the exact same reads. It's about a critical mass of trust coming into play. Sure, I may not have a solid reason to trust X personally, but I don't have any particular suspicion on them, and I trust Y and Z greatly, and Y and Z both trust X. So I extend trust to X as a result of that, and take them out of the POE. I don't need to directly townread everyone else in the towncore so much as I do need to not scumread them and trust that my actual townreads can read them.

I get that. it's about consolidating around trust.
but like there doesn't seem to be much if any overlap, unless you define towncore to be a process where trust is defined implicitly: Where the people who are trusted the most trust the reads of the people they trust most and a PoE appears organically, but that doesn't not sound like what towncore is.

towncore from my understanding is an explict list of players who town trust. sure, the list isn't going to be the same exact for all players-- one person off here one person off there-- but what it feels like you're describing here as a towncore is a town daisychain.
I think the difference there is less than just semantic

I mean I think there's significant overlap

Alison's investment in towncore at this point i'd say is pretty AI

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:57 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

Agreed, Alison is very awkward here.

Reasons I’m voting Alison rn

1. Bad Day on vote record
2. Awkward around the PR reveals

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:20 am in light of me, made, michelle, and ellie all being town, it's obvious that the scum have been manipulating this game and pulling it into a certain narrative. i felt consistently throughout yesterday that something was "weird" about this game - and it's obvious now that the thing i found so weird was the fact that the scum was bruteforcing the POE into a specific direction

in my opinion, a reveal like this should make every town player here start their reads over from scratch & use that information to determine who's been pushing the game into a direction that's advantageous for scum

Or town have been hard pushing town

Either way I’m not starting from scratch lol

okay, i'm just gonna brain dumping and see if we can build it into anything that makes sense
two scenaros:
Situation . Mafia has been running train on thread: JJJ,nutella, alison
Situation . Mafia has just been going with that flow: tutuu, nanook, grogu, doom

i'm starting to have real doubt about it being nutella wolf because:
1. that means they didn't give nutella the kill day one, which means they have probably an even townier person to give the kill (or they vig'd night one. Is there reason not to vig n1?)
2. Mac, Nanook, JJJ, LC, Tutuu, and Alison have all consistently ruled her out till this point. she deserves the win if this is the case tbh

in Situation the confusion we've felt has come from dissenting voice that just didn't make sense. Alison is good at logicing, if she's town, hopefully there's enough here for her to win it for us. if she's not town, then boom, got one. basically, @Alison solve the game or we're baking you (if ur not too busy, thx )

Doom has also been saying she has felt super confused this game, so that's not a green check but a point to weigh in her. Especially if we're in Situation and not Situation

I feel like confusion vibes more with a Situation but, someone made the point that this game maybe the kind of game that needs to be supported by analysis, and not just vibes. so again, @Alison , u got this!!! unless you don't in which case

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:47 pm This is the most I ever posted on a game by far I believe. I must have like 200 posts. That’s ridiculous.
Also I have been forthcoming the whole game. I have struggled to see “scum”.
I have felt that neither do most players here as shown by who we baked so far.
I think the leaders are leading us to hell.

That being said:
I don’t see why tutuu gets shot by scum...
I believe she’s likely scum, but I don’t know how to prove that or look at posts and say: there I found the clues.
People I don’t trust either:
koba, jagged, esso and the aforementioned tuttuu but this later one I’m not sure about.
Trust me or not, we are all wrong and I highly believe Alison is another miss. They are like me and omega just easy low hanging fruits. If any of us is scum is likely omega since someone said he was a great player and I have yet to see that so he’s likely fooling us.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:55 pm Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:19 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:17 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:16 pm @Alison vote essoa

no. see my post

I think you are town. If I have to vote you to save myself I will. Therefore you are going to Jill yourself or kill me and that’s going to result in town flip. Do you but I guarantee you die before me FYI

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:18 pm Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:58 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:23 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:20 pm I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:35 pm It's weird to me because why does mafia Alison choose Nutella to go on, when that is a harder road than others.

Maybe she is town? hmm

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:32 pm I still want to vote Alison for the dropping of the town read of me for no seeable reason other than needing a spot in poe

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:15 pm I like all of the Alison voters though, meh I think I am fine with it

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:59 pm I think there being so much consensus on Alison makes me want to not kill her lmao

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:08 pm If Koba is mafia, I find that she spews SPF town, with what seem like a couple pocket like attempts.

Koba did not give much on Alison, which could be a likely partner, same with Grogu

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:39 am the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:30 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:29 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:24 pm @Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:07 am Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

^^two posts from alison from yesterday that pinged me at the time, and ping me slightly more now. they are focused on asserting the incorrect consensus POE while downplaying the possibility of tinfoils in the "middle" slots.

in fairness to alison, she started entertaining "tinfoil" shortly after making this post, but i want to present these for posterity's sake

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:40 pm hello, i'm at work and don't have a ton of time to dedicate to my solving right now, but i'm staying caught up with the thread and i will drop my two cents when i have the ability

i would like to chime in and say that i am personally not interested in a DOOM chop today. i feel that her posts in the last hour or so have a respectable amount of town equity, and even if i'm wrong about that fact, there is zero world where DOOM!scum survives until the endgame. if she is scum, then her lynch is somewhat of an inevitability. in that regard, i would like to go for a deeper scum today. my gut and my brain are currently pointing me to alison, but i'm not married to that stance just yet. however, i do not personally feel that alison has towntold yet today.

i do feel that nanook and tutuu have, though

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 am thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:39 am i'm confused about the claim that alison is "frozen" when she hasn't posted. if she hasn't posted isn't it possible that's asleep, or distracted, or etc?

i'm far from opposed to considering an alison scum!world, but that seems like a leap

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:59 pm wait but that logic implies she's with alison

and i dont really think that


so no i'm not sure what's wrong with that take

i think i agreed with her that it looked bad for grogu

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:48 pm Koba flipping out at jay, and their general vibe coming into this gamestate, is super likely scum imo. I'm still going for Alison first but I think they fit together (and Alison's reaction to the Jay/Koba interaction was so opposite from mine so...yeah)

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:28 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:28 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:08 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:44 pm I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

If I am scum what advantage does this give me over just laying down some generic cheap townread on nook and either killing him at night if I genuinely believe he's a PR or just going about my business if I don't

Just because I can come and argue that I would have killed nook if I was scum?

Yes

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:08 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:44 pm I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:09 pm like i know that sounds confbiasy but my impression is it's legitimately a strategy scum alison would consciously use

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:03 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:43 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:41 pm i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:07 am

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:08 pm Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

this wasn't enough for alison to dismiss looking at a deepwolf esooa world

what "brute force" do i have compared to esooa? i was pretty forceful about michelle early d2 and backed off of even that, otherwise been pretty chill

idgi

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:25 pm in order to not be too hypocritical (hi papa sloon) i prob should consider esooa more (and this is another one idk why alison isn't) bc she fits the same ""archetype"" of having pushed tons of townies

and mac warned us about her scumrange

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:59 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:55 pm

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:50 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:19 pm

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:21 pm my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol

This is very bad post. Not only is clear I am town, but Alison is clearly town also. This is concerning post, didn’t you post you used to be a monster at this game? You are as clueless as I am.
Monster inc. type of monster you are

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:47 pm If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:08 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:04 pm @jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?

It was my analyses of her interactions within my POE. I began assessing with this POE: [Alison, Omega, Grogu, DK, Esooa] and found that Alison is a poor fit with both Omega and Esooa. So for her to be mafia, if my assessments are accurate, she would have to be teamed with exactly Grogu and DK. That is on its own power unlikely, and if not then that means 1) she's town, 2) my analyses of Omega/Esooa were flawed, or 3) she would fit better with someone outside my POE instead.

I haven't looked into #3 yet. But then she popped in with her legacy and I think it looks pretty authentic. So my current feeling is that #1 is the answer.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:41 pm @Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:

For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:48 am I agree with nutella in that, at least right this moment, I struggle to conceptualize the game without Alison being mafia. She serves as a ringleader of sorts and allows town to cannibalize, all while ushering the bad consensus onward from a place of relative detachment. She could be carrying lower-volume players or teamed with a goat, but I really doubt the team is something like [Grogu, Omega, DK] or something similarly easy-world.

Doesn't mean she's evil and I'll always keep listening blah blah, but that's where I'm at.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:17 am I suppose tutuu and Alison both would fit the "started hot and tailed off" stencil shape for mafia

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:31 pm doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:44 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:26 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:15 pm Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:54 pm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:45 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:42 pm made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before

I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

i find grogu and doom's behaviors weird, alison and dkkoba have had no reactions

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:35 am so hyped that i wanna post while resting between sets

assuming no cc,

spf - jailkeeper. n1 nutella n2 tutuu
made - cop. n1 holster n2 michelle town
michelle - peeked town

tutuu

leaves me with:
alison
doom
koba
esooa
grogu
jjj
nanook

we can make 2 more misyeets, even if mafia vigs someone we don't lose our 2 free attempts. also if spf manages to jailkeep exactly the mafia killer tonight we win a 3rd free misyeet and potentially auto win, gl gl @staypositivefriend

god my abs hurt and i cant breathe

lets go with 2 free misyeets, that pool of 7 i can reduce to 7-2=5, and the 3 mafia are there and i cant make a mistake. therefore i simply need to find 5-3=2 townreads among that list of 7 and i have auto

trustfall:

alison - had some logical inconsistencies that i think arent an attribute of her scum game; had some stern and towny tonal posts of "stop scumreading me ur playing poorly", has been pretty reasonable and has pushed the game forward
*snip*

----------------

distrustfull:

alison - is capable of being uber towny as scum, is capable of doing pretty much all of her posts she has posted this game as scum, was content with the status quo and poe on day 1 which we now see was completely and entirely wrong
*snip*

i just realized all of this effort is for nothing if someone cc's so lol me, but, wont be the first time i feel embarassed at myself and wont be the last so whatever

1 more set

out of the trustfalls i found it easiest to come up with esooa and weirdly enough grogu. and hardest to come up with jjj and nanook

out of the distrustfalls i found it easiest to come up with alison and doom. hardest to come up with .... jjj and nanook once again. which is bizarre.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:31 pm doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:44 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:26 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:15 pm Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny