The Syndicate

My lunch break has concluded. Later

Nice show, awesome! Thank you for your service, Jack.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:49 am tsp told people to shoot a wolf that means he's rand wolf

Are you the bussing type if wolf?

Don’t seem to manage much at all today.

Boquise wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:19 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:20 am Might recommend blowing up Dolby to motivate him to play

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:56 pm don't know about dolby but idk it's dolby he hsould already be dead

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:57 am blast dolby rn
Maybe I am just too nervous about bussing. I am not convinced by this.

Why?

I judge the scenario as unlikely since mafia enjoyed a cycle with three town victims.

How does the second quote in particular read wolf towards wolf?

Boquise wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:07 pm @everyone: what do you think was the mafia team's likely strategy at the end of Day 1?

Dolby was on mislynch, maybe someone else complied, I’ll have to do my reads on this angle.

Dizzy said in hood they didn’t wish to create a tie or move to lucy.

Dizzy’s amplifies suspicions of me with a link with Violet because in chat I proposed using the magic action on someone mid-activity, and Violet’s D1 was almost blank among the lowest active.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:09 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:03 pm
Boquise wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:07 pm @everyone: what do you think was the mafia team's likely strategy at the end of Day 1?
Dolby was on mislynch, maybe someone else complied, I’ll have to do my reads on this angle.

Dizzy said in hood they didn’t wish to create a tie or move to lucy.

Dizzy’s amplifies suspicions of me with a link with Violet because in chat I proposed using the magic action on someone mid-activity, and Violet’s D1 was almost blank among the lowest active.
Ok, but you did argue we could use it on Ruri, correct?

On someone who was almost lynch of the Day? Yes.

Morning. Wow. RIP Moonwink.

Maybe I should throw my traditional reads method out, game is moving at a whole different pace.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:58 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:38 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:55 am Day 1 Mafia in a vacuum is Spacedaisy, Dyslexicon, and Ricochet.
Is the BTSC prize even logical, mechanic-wise, if it would place two wolves in a hood? Town me with Dizzy sheeping at most.
If you won BTSC, what did you learn about Dyslexison?

What did Dyslexicon learn about you?

I didn't engage much in the BTSC, just like I lost real life steam in the game during EOD1. Strategised the prize tactics. Dizzy didn't turn active either and I didn't push it. Asked about their EOD state of mind and they stated, much like in the game, that they're confused or unsure a lot.

Dizzy formed the image that I would be keeping distance and biding my time from my low pace and that I would have bias against targeting Violet, even though I just didn't feel prizes, fake or real, should be tested on the bottom of the barrel. Didn't wish either to come out that way, in hindsight.

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:33 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:53 am
Moonwink wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:51 pm I'm kinda disappointed that everybody ignored the Epi vote aside from Epi. I think that would have spewed Epi town regardless of whatever he did to me.
What was Moon talking about here?
nobody thinks epi is mafia therefore he's threadspewed town, thread spewed being everyone has the same opinion on their alignment so they're probably just that alignment

can I get a simple English 7:30am version of this, please? what's threadspewing?

Spacedaisy, Epignosis, what's the take on Boquise, that you voted him?

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:42 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:38 am
lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:33 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:53 am
Moonwink wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:51 pm I'm kinda disappointed that everybody ignored the Epi vote aside from Epi. I think that would have spewed Epi town regardless of whatever he did to me.
What was Moon talking about here?
nobody thinks epi is mafia therefore he's threadspewed town, thread spewed being everyone has the same opinion on their alignment so they're probably just that alignment
can I get a simple English 7:30am version of this, please? what's threadspewing?
you know about lord kelvin or much about mathematical proofs, if not what was ur major, I'll give u a sick analogy because I thought the above was a very simple explanation

I couldn't convert minuses in equations for my dear entire life. Try a musical analogy or just plain.

Dolby Interaction Perspective

Boquise
- sole engagement with Dolby is asking him to scrutinize himself
- places him second bottom for no direction in posts

Interaction bit on the polite, low-pressure side and final read backed up by less detailed reasoning than expected for a sus color.

Dyslexicon
- banter about Dolby being mafia
- enhance of Dolby’s wordscan of lucy’s meta ask (missing the mafia question)
- hopeful that Dolby will prove frequent-poster
- would have nominated Dolby in the vig shot fake scenario
- further interacts with Dolby on kill option
- reveals vig shot bluff soon after Dolby response
- open to Dolby’s sus placed on me
- temp vote on Dolby
- wolfcores Martin and Dolby
- wolfteams Dolby with Martin and Violet

Worth a grainsalt on both the open statement about hoping Dolby will be active and the readiness to follow what Dolby concocted as his D1 cases, but every bit of pushing Dolby into attention and contention (from vig shoot, regardless if bluff, to wagon) feels too risky to ignite from teammate perspective.

Epignosis
- shrug response to Dolby light questioning him
- D2 returning with a softvote on Dolby for his D1 sketchy townread on him

Null. Or ever so town-lean, as in a gut tell that Epignosis is just playing his own route and didn't bother to cover tracks and act blind on teammates' inactivity.

(This was written last night, before the vig shoot happening).

Lucy
- meta ask and ask about poststyle; Dolby replies in detail
- banter to TSP suggesting a vig shot on Dolby
- then adds Dolby on the vig shot nomination list
- awaits for Dolby to contribute more (or expresses belief in him doing that)
- asks Dolby for EOD reads

To note that, whilst not that uncooperative early on, Dolby put on his best reply form to lucy's ask. Sensing a sort of go-with-the-flow once Dolby was on people's minds about a potential vig flip. Vibe is that it is not out of reason for much of this interaction to be nudges towards.

Spacedaisy
- nothing

TSP
- nominates Dolby for vig shot (for motivation to play)
- D2 claims Dolby should have been dead
- Right off tell Jack to “blast dolby”

Struggling to comprehend the wolf angle on casting Dolby in the eye of every (bluffed / real) mechanic-related danger. Plus the night 1 claim, which is extra twisted WIFOM to build.

Violet
- nothing

TSP
Epignosis
Dyslexicon
Spacedaisy
Violet
Boquise
lucy

Not sold on this interaction angle by any means, but this is the best I can read into it atm.

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:53 am what's your read on me @Ricochet

Don't have time to make a case on you right now.

If compelled with just 30 seconds to realtime, I would say I don't trust you, but couldn't make a convinced statement.

From the Dolby profiling, I would say there are high odds at least one of his mafia teammates either: a) minded their own line of work and never interacted or b) interacted well with him and/or nudged him to put on a good show. You would be in the second camp.

Least odds in my mind would be a hardbuss, in the style TSP did, which is why I am now confused why you are voting him or how do you see him wolf out of this.

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:06 amshit analysis

Sad face.

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:07 am me and boq are town, tsp isn't cleared at all

why

Boquise wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:12 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:54 pm Don’t seem to manage much at all today.

Boquise wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:19 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:20 am Might recommend blowing up Dolby to motivate him to play

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:56 pm don't know about dolby but idk it's dolby he hsould already be dead

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:57 am blast dolby rn
Maybe I am just too nervous about bussing. I am not convinced by this.
Why?

I judge the scenario as unlikely since mafia enjoyed a cycle with three town victims.

How does the second quote in particular read wolf towards wolf?
to me it looked like Tony and Dolby were forcing an interaction so that they wouldn't look like partners. Neither of them actually says anything about the other in their posts.

Yes, but as far as the vig shot goes, TSP confirmed Dolby blast in an instant.

Don’t get any advantageous sense for wolves out of that save for extreme supatowning facade.

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:19 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:11 am
lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:53 am what's your read on me @Ricochet
Don't have time to make a case on you right now.

If compelled with just 30 seconds to realtime, I would say I don't trust you, but couldn't make a convinced statement.

From the Dolby profiling, I would say there are high odds at least one of his mafia teammates either: a) minded their own line of work and never interacted or b) interacted well with him and/or nudged him to put on a good show. You would be in the second camp.

Least odds in my mind would be a hardbuss, in the style TSP did, which is why I am now confused why you are voting him or how do you see him wolf out of this.
of course the least odds would be that he was hard bussed, there was no vote lmfao, you need a Lynch to bus and there was no Lynch here

trust lmao

okay, give me one other example of a partner interacting with dolby, you just listed the opposite ends of the spectrum placing me at one end, there's literally no interaction that escapes the spectrum, and you're arbitrarily saying mafia would be least likely to buss. is it not true he was low posting, and got heavily suspected yesterday, why would mafia not stand to benefit from a buss eg to kill a low posting member of mafia and gain credit?

we're using different meaning for (throwing under a) bus, for me the vig shoot moment also consitutes a throw under. any sacrificial stance on a teammate, if you will.

I just broke down all the interactions with Dolby. "Heavily suspected" is not a reality out of that. 3 vote wagon at one point, but can hardly track if any of it seemed to stick.

lucy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:32 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:24 am we're using different meaning for (throwing under a) bus, for me the vig shoot moment also consitutes a throw under. any sacrificial stance on a teammate, if you will.

I just broke down all the interactions with Dolby. "Heavily suspected" is not a reality out of that. 3 vote wagon at one point, but can hardly track if any of it seemed to stick
I love ritual human sacrifice, also that's a good point, I have to reread
3 votes is objectively heavily suspected, is it not?

This shouldn’t be ultra semantic.

3 votes is objectively lynch danger zone, yes, however town Martin snap voted him, Dizzy snap voted him with extra hip wiggles and I can’t evem trace the third one on mobile haha.

Hence not that “heavy” of a heat put on him.

Let’s start with Stating the Obvious

Lucy’s EOD1 wagon was all town
Dolby was on the mislynch, no case, little to no interaction of value with Triple. actually the last voter on the wagon (#491), adds a snickering this is fine (#508), sealed it

Now let’s try to Occam the TripleWagon

If another wolf jumped on the wagon

Daisy – very early ping-vote on TripleHaven, stated returning to the case, never did due to RL.

 Could have a been an early plant, of course, but given timing and inactivity there is no strategy to crack.

Dizzy – takes a voyage from leaning town (#102), drops it based on Daisy’s ping (#152), switches to Lucy, then hesitates and reads lucy’s own vote on Triple well (and banter for not being voted by her) (#274), back on TH, though stating it’s directionless, jumps on Tony, jumps on me, jumps on Triple, reads Triple wolf-wolf with me (banter or otherwise), keeps vote with same hesitation, jumps on Dolby, jumps back, jumps Ruri, jumps back on Triple, reads town and doesn’t even move off Triple at the last minute

 Dizzy’s EOD is so all over the place, I’m inclined to almost put it down to complete theatrics in order for wolf Dizzy to be this anxious and conscious of wagoning and lynching Triple on such weak case-making. Would have had sure opportunity to pile up either on a mislynch of me (with stronger in-game reasoning) or a wolfbus of Dolby (once votes started heating on him). Inclined to consider this a town (or indy) sprawl.

lucy – unless I missed more stuff prior (searching “TH” is impossible, rember), ping-votes Triple in same sentence in which opposes Dizzy wagon (#265); then when Dizzy votes, considers it baiting (#279), goes back on very early Triple post to mark it weird / subjective (#410), then hesitates with the read (#412), admits it was weaksauce (#416), but is from then on stuck in self-pres scenario

 Out of all three, probably weakest sauce to ever wagon TripleHaven, up until self-pres became a given. #279 probably the worst looking post – why ping-vote and then shading another ping-voter?

Dizzy > Daisy > lucy

If wolves stayed off both wagons

Boquise (vote on me) – enough sus to vote/wagon me, read lucy town, leaned town on TH even with reservations

TSP (vote on Moonwink? Official VC doesn’t count) – had some tiny posts on perhaps voting Triple, never acted upon, nominated Dolby for a vig shot

Violet (no vote) – incommunicado

I got nothing, I don’t get TSP being wolf from Dolby situation, so it’s down to pure chance if the other two constitute the entire wolf pool left.

Stretch to a maybe that wolf Boq might have been safe to pedal my wagon and not touch anything. No effort (or backed up reasoning) to save lucy, if she were wolf on the lynch block.

clarification of post above: Dizzy > Daisy > lucy in terms of townleaning

[VOTE: lucy] aubergine

Why should you be read town for inheriting Triple’s kill? Didn’t it go to a rand player from their wagon?

On TSP alluding to bussing: he did?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:36 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:00 pm Why should you be read town for inheriting Triple’s kill? Didn’t it go to a rand player from their wagon?
I did not inherit Triple's kill. Did Triple have a kill? My role from the start was vig. I shot Ruri, is what I'm talking about.

Oh, ok. I interpreted as claiming to have inherited Triple’s power.

Why did you only claim this at this stage of D2?

Why didn’t you vig Violet, lol?

Wants to magic Epig.

Discusses with me low post choices.

Vigs my preferred low post choice.

Shades me for not going with the lowest post choice.

Bloody hell. Are you protecting your teammate?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:04 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:45 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:36 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:00 pm Why should you be read town for inheriting Triple’s kill? Didn’t it go to a rand player from their wagon?
I did not inherit Triple's kill. Did Triple have a kill? My role from the start was vig. I shot Ruri, is what I'm talking about.
Oh, ok. I interpreted as claiming to have inherited Triple’s power.

Why did you only claim this at this stage of D2?

Why didn’t you vig Violet, lol?
Why shouldn’t I tbh. It’s for clarity ig. I don’t have the role anymore.

And I said why Ruri. Plus I have a soft spot for Violet, as the last and only time we played was in a champ qualifier game, and I really enjoyed him there and know he can bring more.

Also this kind of sounds like you are in fact teamed with Violet lol

I don’t get your rational for sussing me on the N1 talk. If I gave you the impression in BTSC that I may be wolf and protect Violet from target, why not test it out?

Boquise wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:25 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:21 am
Boquise wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:12 am
Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:54 pm Don’t seem to manage much at all today.

Boquise wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:19 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:20 am Might recommend blowing up Dolby to motivate him to play

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:56 pm don't know about dolby but idk it's dolby he hsould already be dead

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:57 am blast dolby rn
Maybe I am just too nervous about bussing. I am not convinced by this.
Why?

I judge the scenario as unlikely since mafia enjoyed a cycle with three town victims.

How does the second quote in particular read wolf towards wolf?
to me it looked like Tony and Dolby were forcing an interaction so that they wouldn't look like partners. Neither of them actually says anything about the other in their posts.
Yes, but as far as the vig shot goes, TSP confirmed Dolby blast in an instant.

Don’t get any advantageous sense for wolves out of that save for extreme supatowning facade.
I see absolutely no reason that these two can't be teammates.

Give me a reason that they can. A reasoned reason.

Reconcile bussing Dolby twice at the first signal of vig with 'dolby should have been dead" & the chance for a four streak town casualty by mid D2.

Mkey.

Boquise wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:50 pm He had absolutely nothing to say about Tony during their catchup. only said the bare minimum about Dolby

Who did?

yet all TSP said was off with his head

and Dolby schemed as he pleased. so that would be only TSP on his own applying strong buss on teammate.

Violet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:24 pm With Moonwink being town, I think the wolves will be found in Rico, TSP and Dizzy. I would prioritize Rico over TSP.

Why? You had a more concrete read on TSP than Dizzy or me.

Violet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:44 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:32 pm
Violet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:24 pm With Moonwink being town, I think the wolves will be found in Rico, TSP and Dizzy. I would prioritize Rico over TSP.
Why? You had a more concrete read on TSP than Dizzy or me.
Do you think TSP was bussing Dolby? That's the main question here. Right now I would not rule it as impossible, but I do not think it is the easiest explanation.

Nothing is impossible, but I see it as the furthest explanation.

Can't say you answered my question.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:18 pm No, fuck, I don't want a tie. I'll voe lucy. [VOTE: lucy] aubergine

Is this just tie related? What's your lucy read?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:48 pm Who's up for chopping Violet tbh?

Valid if they'll never exit general POE. But total guess based on Dolby flip.

Any other advantages to this?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:53 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:52 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:48 pm Who's up for chopping Violet tbh?
Valid if they'll never exit general POE. But total guess based on Dolby flip.

Any other advantages to this?
I mean, they'll probably flip mafia. That's all.

So, total guess.

Joining you, if my original vote leads nowhere.

Not voting TSP apart from self-pres.

[VOTE: Violet] aubergine

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:55 pm Interesting. Committed to killing the Rico/Violet link?

I got nothing, apart from potential distant/disengaged wolf and taking them out of POE.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:59 pm Guess I have to do a meaningless buss vote then.

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Spoiler: show
As in town on town

6-2 at best and you want to lynch town. Unbelievable.

Morning. RIP TSP & Boq.

I've been on road yesterday, which synced well with the Night phase, and have a concert tonight and returning home tomorrow, which syncs less well with the Day phase. Will drop when I can today and more towards EOD tomorrow.

The TSP mislynch didn't clear stuff for me, since my reads were at lucy wagon wolf with Dolby, Violet backbench wolf, and maybe Dizzy sheeping us (whilst also wagon wolf with Dolby) or Boquise sheeping us hard. With Boquise kill, that leaves lucy / violet / dizzy.

Epig town, by virtue of his D2 action.
To which, my only small question mark would be that I am very confused as to why Moonwink's role flip seems identical to Epig's (or rather to how Epig's vig shot unfolded D2). Two policy killers in one game? Or some sort of copycat mechanism?

Daisy town, but no lock on it.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:10 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:00 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:59 pm Guess I have to do a meaningless buss vote then.

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Spoiler: show
As in town on town

6-2 at best and you want to lynch town. Unbelievable.
This post is just outing. I haven't seen anything scummier since DigitalDude from this year's champs.

I reacted to the text put in spoilers (why you placed it in spoilers being a question in itself).

You ended EOD voting someone you believed was town. Of course I found it gross.

And you could be grinning at us in doing all of this.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:13 pm I believe Daisy is town and I believe Epig is town. I believe Daisy has found Epig as town.

I think Rico is pretty much always mafia. The partner is either Violet or Lucy. It's iiinteresting that I was loverized with Violet, and didn't wake up dead.

I'm actually pretty confident in this solve. But that doesn't mean I won't have an open mind.

What do you mean, "pretty much always"?

Violet wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:32 pm Some call me the loverizer. They are mistaken, as I am much more like a hostage taker. I pair myself with a player I suspect is a wolf and if wolves dare to kill me, they'll lose one of their own. If I used my powers succesfully that is.

Currently I think Rico and Dizzy are the likeliest wolves. Boq started to trouble me a bit after TSP's flip, but that slot doesn't require solving any longer.

Host's ruled that no roles are alignment-proof, so my issue is that this vig claim reads much too failproof as town powers go.

Epig's vig was conditioned by being voted, so he could attract town or wolf alike - as proven, it turned out a town casualty.
Jack's vig was sacrificial.

Your vig power is the least "bastard", as stated.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:38 pm Could just kill Violet first.

As in lynch? Or vig kill? Do you still have bullets? I thought you said during D2 that, after Ruri, you don't.

lucy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:39 pm Lucy
daisy

violet

epig
trebuchet
twink

How did you progress from "me being TR by boq" to putting me last bottom?

How on earth is Epig bad in your view?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:02 am My vote is on Ricochet because he's going through the motions. Walls of text were so 2015.

I do not have a conviction there, but I will NOT wait until the last minute this time to vote like I did last time. My vote will be informed this round.

Don't get what you mean by going through motions. And I am indeed ancient and antiquated.

How do my Day performances read to you?

===

Think that's about it, for now.

lucy / violet / dizzy

Both me and Epig has chosen to inherit the role of the one we killed. Which makes it so that our original role is the one revealed.

I may indeed miss full implication of the inheritance mechanics.

I understand the first part and indeed have understood that Epignosis has inherited Moonwink's role after he killed her.

Yet Epignosis also stated his Policy Kill is his original role, not an inherited one.

The second part, I do not understand it as well.

Can you bring more clarity to why Moonwink's flip is shown as the Policy Kill role itself?

viewtopic.php?p=984823#p984823

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:40 am [

Ok. Well, my vote didn't matter at all, TSP was getting chopped anyway. I said what I said to see what reactions I got/I just did it.

Sometimes I feel like you take things quite literally and seriously, will you say that is fair?

In an incorrigible way.

My problem is that you doubted or disputed the TSP lynch would flip mafia. If you were fine with lynching and getting a flip answer out of TSP, I feel you probably could have phrased it better.

Ah. That clarifies it indeed. I was scratching my scalp to the bone around that flip reveal.

Cheers.

Good morning.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:51 am @lucy @Violet @Ricochet

Please vote.

Was out of business yesterday.

I'll make my reads and vote today.

Case file Epignosis

I don’t think there needs to be one.

Is it outside the range of possibility that his role might be non-town? No.
Is it outside the range of possibility that he might lay low, attract little buzz, enjoy the townreads received in general (at times for less than informed / substantiated playing, no less) or for his vig action? No.
Would he place outside POE for his gameplay alone, as opposed to the role factor? Probably not for me.

Still, to project him as a mafioso policy killer seems even more extreme and twisted than yesterday’s take on TSP having constantly tried to drown a teammate.

He was quick to fire with his policy kill, plus revealed the action in real time and reacted to the miss in quick fashion. It was all over in half an hour. That’s a very small window for any backstage strategizing.

Plus, his role would have allowed him to choose a victim from several candidates, had he drawn more votes. If wolf, he could have waited / baited / tested the kill on several players, as a method to clear town danger.

Any case on Epig being wolf would need a Change my mind_meme.jpg. I’m not seeing it.

Read: Town

Case file Violet

Role claim musings

1. As stated before yesterday, I see no downside to the role apart from dying (being killed). Jack had that as well, but also with an actual gamble on catching mafia. This role instead reads straightforward mafia booby trap. Every vig role thus far has shown serious downsides or limitations. What makes this role believable, in context of this game’s apparent design?
2. Does the role require to lock on to a wolf in order for the booby trap to work at a later stage?
3. It seems to me Violet never confirmed if the “hostage-taking” meant BTSC.

This role seems to me anti-mafia by design. Personal gameplay dictates how you achieve success with it – Violet chose low-posting, so the hopes with this role were perhaps not to get heat and POE’d mislynched during the Day (so far, so good), but also to attract the night kill (did not pan out).

Furthermore, non-mason BTSC sounds unlikely by default to take place between wolves (or, rather, a mafioso with this role to be allowed to target himself and another teammate in building the BTSC channel).

Hypothesis A

a) This role’s vig shot mechanic is fake, but BTSC occured for real. Violet is mafia. Dizzy is not.
b) This role is entirely fake (the BTSC). Violet is mafia. Dizzy and Violet could have crafted this narrative as mafia.

Hypothesis B

This role is genuine. Violet is town. Dizzy could be either.

Enough wall posting, Rico, where does that leave us?

WIFOMland, that’s where.

If Violet town

- Would expect wolves to push for her mislynch.
- If wolf is lynched today, nightkill proof, assured seat at 3-way LYLO

If Violet wolf, one of the two variables of Hypothesis A is legit.

Read: ???

(of course this is taking long as hell)

Case file Dizzy

Previous role stuff

- Claims Ruri nightkill was theirs (#880)
- Inherited Ruri’s role and discarded spankviglol

Spankvig target and kill checks out, as Ruri had only three posts D1.

Further musing: still no clarity offered (even though I asked – #897) on why they chose Ruri over Violet. Both were compatible for the spankkill on D1, so at most Dizzy could have even gambled with a 50% chance kill on either. Bit concerning that answer was only some meta nostalgia for playing with Violet (and shade thrown back at me re: the Rico/Violet pairing).

The spankviglol vig role is probably the least alignment-solvable of those to evaluate. Both town or mafia could have this type of (very) conditional extra shot / game removal.

Current role alluding

As for the inherited role that Dizzy is alluding to, I didn’t pick up the hints, would require more clarity.

Lovertime with Violet

See Violet case.

Wolf/wolf with role claim genuine breaks all logic.
Wolf/wolf with role claim fake is a possibility.
Town Violet / wolf Dizzy is a possibility.
Wolf Violet / town Dizzy is a possibility (less so if vig claim legit).

If wolf/wolf, there has been distancing aplenty. In this scenario, Violet has had lukewarm sus on Dizzy (#708) and has now shifted even more towards red on them (#977). Meanwhile, Dizzy acted hound on Violet without restraint.

If Violet town and Dizzy wolf, Violet has locked on to wolf in her chat so mafia cannot afford to nightkill her, therefore their only hope would be for Violet to be mislynched.

Eliminate all role conjectures, vote pattern

D1
- #34 Moonwink [townflip] – blank
- #102 Ricochet – shallow
- #176 Lucy – “for outed mafia” (?)
- #278 Triple [townflip] – for early and loose reads
- #316 TSP [townflip] – temp vote, blank
- #341 Ricochet – back on, probably after Boq’s player salad assessment
- #342 Triple [townflip] – immediately back
- #446 Dolby [wolfflip] – with Uma dance twerk
- #449 Triple [townflip] – a more solid vibe on phoniness
- #472 Ruri [townflip] – embark on a wagon to lynch inactive, admits it is “CRINGE”
- #488 Triple final [townflip] – tho “prob[ably] town” and “sorry, TH” (#505)

D2
- #645 Ricochet – Dolby angle and overall gut feeling
- #885 Lucy – given D1 votecount
- #946 TSP [townflip] – willing to bus just to get a flip out of the affair and focus on mafia after
- #947 Ricochet – psyche
- #953 Violet – wants her chopped
- #962 TSP [townflip] – meaningless bus vote, with further comment of reading TSP town

You're tearing us apart, Rico, read it already

Dizzying amount [pun intended] of back-and-forths or switcheroos, no close on stronger reads/vibes, any wagon pushed for was for low-tier clean-ups etc. BESIDE, call me judgey, but repeated pattern of bussing the main wagon whilst acknowledging no confidence in a wolf result is either frustrating town behaviour or anxiety-inducing wolf work-around.

I still hold hope that all this from Dizzy is town sprawl, but there’s also nothing I take Dizzy off POE for and it is not the unlikeliest read that it could all be a nervous act, whilst cleaning town all up, including via lynches.

Read: Eternal POE, could vote

Case file lucy

Role stuff

N/A or no clue.

Vote pattern
(might have missed some, lucy doesn’t use the vote button all the time)

D1
- #265 Triple [townflip] – ping vote
- #415 Ruri [townflip] – jump on wagon, clarifies later (#419) intent to clear low-poster
- #502 Triple [townflip] - votes to self-pres

D2
- #760 Ricochet – no reasoning, though impartial (#762)
- #768 Moonwink [townflip] – shortly moves, presumably at Moonwink’s taunt
- #849 TSP [townflip] – down with it
- #850 Ricochet – down with it too
- #851 TSP [townflip] final

Play pattern

D1
- Meta asks much of the field (Moon, Dolby, Daisy, Epignosis, TSP, Rico, Martin, Jack)
- #207 clarifies (to Daisy) that interpretation of meta answers is not her D1 MO, gives a pass to evasive answers
- Next stretch, focuses on interaction with some and others’ pings on her
- #264 promises readslists, even though not her MO this early
- Next stretch, pokes a few (Dizzy, Jack) on their pings and others (Boq, Rico) on reading her
- #410 adds one more ping on Triple, though #412 still leans town, #416 admits it was half-assed ping
- #420 TR Triple for “actual solving”, though on the “fast and loose side”, which mirrors a bit Dizzy’s #278 similar assessment
- #424 would still push Ruri elimination, since not confident in Moon or Triple lynch

D2
- Interprets night kill
- Invites players (Boq) for realtime
- #542 started looking at a Dolby read, then nothing
- #553 states again meta of warming up reads starting D2, with help of realtime
- #557 more on own post-reading skills
- #590 more on own read accuracy, albeit poor in wording
- TRs on Jack, then Epig, then Boq
- Develops twinkies gimmick as an ask across the board
- #606 asks me on reads (on her, dizzy, boq)
- #671 “could tell [of possible mafia] in Dizzy and/or Rico” but put it aside not to get wrong and then less influence, would follow Dizzy
- Inquires Dizzy, Boq, Violet, TSP
- #684 starts an “I know what you’re doing” exchange with Dizzy re their “tactics”
- #728 ping on TSP for “doing nothing”
- #769 “will make a readlist”
- Mad at Epi for his shot
- Exchange with me on TSP angle

I read Lucy’s D1 in quite a bad light, more than anything with natural bias against players with the mindset to do less, solve less or delay such matter. However, I’ve re-read that she wasn’t committed to lynch wagons she didn’t see reasonable (Triple, Moon). Was committed to clearing a low-poster, until self-pres intervened.

More active D2 with several pursuits, but not that sure this time how to sum it up. Ping on twice now having said readlists will happen, yet sticking to none. Townread a fair amount of players, but openly founds reasons to not clear and pursue the TSP lynch.

I’ll push it further in her case that so far during D3 I find her thought process even more confounding. “Certainty” in Epig being bad, meta profiling of wolf Dizzy. Why pursue this? Where does this lead? Where is lucy’s head at? Why is it hard to answer this on MYLO, what does she achieve in playing it so?

If wolf/if town scenarios don’t reveal too much nuance, I think. If town, this is overall a weird play, with less-than-promised aspects of case-making, and I concede that I will have more to learn and reflect on this gameplay of hers post-game. If wolf, it would be a sort of float around play, lynches would align in same way Dizzy’s would i.e. cleaning town.

Read: Nothing to take off POE, could vote

Case file Spacedaisy

Role stuff

No clue. Was there something, from someone, about Daisy spewing Epig town? I picked up the comment, but couldn’t wrap my head around it.

Vote pattern

D1
- #147 Triple - TMI

D2
- #824 Boquise [townflip] – vote toss with inquiry
- #875 TSP [townflip] – moves, no reasoning
- #938 Boquise [townflip] – moves, still not decisive
- #939 lucy – moves right away, just to avoid ties
- #942 TSP final – chooses this path over less “town posts”

D1 may be pardonable in Daisy never getting back to the keyboard, D2 becomes more questionable with votes this sketchy and thin.

If there’s nuance I can grasp, it would be that Daisy, much like Dizzy, admitted at times to be “spinning” wrt what to do, where to vote, but she comes off more detached as opposed to Dizzy’s more erratic and defeatist tones. Furthermore, up to #942 I’m sensing that Daisy took just as detached of an approach to game solving i.e. recapping her own way, reading into things her own, making comments that were not much connected to other viewpoints.

I admit there could have been more scrutiny to Daisy’s activity and voting.

if wolf

coast on early (and recurrent) towncred, no wagon pushing, less than active presence and memorability

if town

active as possible, but with faults in engagement and connectivity with main topics

Not the easiest read to project and not ideal at MYLO phase. I would hope this is just less-than-optimal town play, instead of low effort wolf banking.

Read: town guess or would not pursue to lynch.

Friend coming over. Be back around 1-2 hours till EOD.

If I could project Violet's role as town, that would leave just lucy and Dizzy, with a heavy maybe on Daisy as wolf sheep. Project to vote one of them two.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:39 pm

I'm starting to think maybe not Violet/Lucy, since Lucy is pushing me now, which would make Violet die as well. So that seems less likely.

I don't follow. Why would Violet die if we lynch you? It reads to me that Violet dies if mafia nighkill her, also exploding in their face.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:33 pm
Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:22 pmFurther musing: still no clarity offered (even though I asked – #897) on why they chose Ruri over Violet. Both were compatible for the spankkill on D1, so at most Dizzy could have even gambled with a 50% chance kill on either. Bit concerning that answer was only some meta nostalgia for playing with Violet (and shade thrown back at me re: the Rico/Violet pairing).

The spankviglol vig role is probably the least alignment-solvable of those to evaluate. Both town or mafia could have this type of (very) conditional extra shot / game removal.
I think I was very clear why I chose Ruri over Violet. It is because I know Ruri to be a low poster who is prone to being a mischop if they are town. That is my experience with them. My experience with Violet is the exact opposite; that they are very actively involved. I have not played with Violet since that champs game some years ago, so yes, that also factored in. If you asked my gut at the time, I would probably say Violet had a slight more chance of flipping mafia than Ruri tbh, but that's moot. Ruri also had a wagon on D1. So that is why I chose Ruri. Is that clear now?

I also completely disagree that my role is the least alignment-solvable. Most big games on syndicate have players posting more than 150 posts. This game is literally the only Anniversary game where everyone apparently decided to low post. They could not know that when they made the game. Actually, there was a 100 post post count thing on D1, which kind of changes things, so whoops. But cool. I've said my piece on that.

"I would probably say Violet had a slight more chance of flipping mafia"

You had the chance to target Violet N1. 100% her and 50% Ruri, or other way around. But still something. Why did you not?

As per your second paragraph: how is your original role town-readable by a convincing margin?

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