The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Might change my vote to Rico.

You still want to win this, after 37 days and 1400 posts, right? 'Cause then, you should do anything but vote for me.

Did you solve the N5 dilemma or what am I missing?

You should vote MM, btw.

Diiny wrote:I thought it was worth like one billion

Or is that negative votes on him? ?

Aye.

Diiny wrote:Dinner's in the oven. Pudding in the fridge.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'll be gone until after the deadline.

Town loses. MM's votes are worth too many to counter, right?

MM's vote is worth 1.

Diiny wrote:I'm also reminded of Rico being SUPER defensive AND wifommy on that day where I voted for him early on, and I'd expect the SK to be even more defensive than mafia. Also, his frustration of putting scum as a green skittle (his defence of which is the subject of said wifom) as the SK makes perfect sense. My gut is telling me Rico SK at this stage.

You do remember that confrontation was about me being mafia, right?

The subject of said wifom was that I would never put a teammate as a green skittle, knowing it can blow in my face, not that I was frustrated to have given green skittle to a scum.

Nice spin on what happened, though, I'll give you that.

Anyway, people of all alignments should be able to figure out already who I might be. My D6 tirade against Mac speaks for itself, admist other phases where I wobbled or not like jello. In fact, it speaks for itself especially considering the other phases in which I was jello man. My jump on you and the others on N12 should also speak for itself, in this regard.

I'm Deduction Man.

The SK is not Deduction Man. He's Everybody Please Drop Dead Man.

Diiny wrote:I'd also like to point out that during my discussions with rico, we disagreed over what SK-ish behaviour is like, he suggested 'not finding things to be able to grasp onto' as SKish. I'm reminded of the night bullzeye was lynched (I think?) when he had his meltdown and looked very much as if he was struggling to find things to grasp onto.

Now, when we discussed this I said I didn't think being publicly lost and ambivalent was something the SK would do, but who knows Rico's SK game better than Rico?

I referenced an indy game of mine, not an SK game of mine. I was never SK so far, nor am I now. "Who knows better my SK game than me?" Heck, not even me. :P

My Bullzeye meltdown was due to a horrible Day phase in terms of activity, research and reflecting on a vote choice. It's all in there.

linki: Even better. Swamp couldn't have had anything to do with SK not killing.

Diiny wrote:It has to be the case. I'm not the SK and the SK didn't kill. Either the SK missed a PM, which is unlikely, or PSK **can** kill every night but doesn't **have to**.

Also, if this were the case and the idea that I was the SK (which emerged pretty early) was formed because I was away, I'm sure the PSK found it within his interest to not substitute his kill for whatever the fuck he was doing on night 5.

Why is SK missing a PM unlikely? Why is it unlikelier than abstinence.

Plus, I said I'm open to suggestions on what can explain the SK's behaviour, but then you keep circling around missing action or abstinence, and insist on refuting the very thing that incriminates you and tell us to look elsewhere.

Nah.

I don't understand what you mean with the second paragraph.

Diiny wrote:OR. PSK tried to kill ??? from night 4 again, not realising that there's a double targeting rule until it was too late?

Something like this has to have happened, because I'm not the sk. As much as you all believe it. Gah

Highly unlikely. Plus, would the Hosts actually strip him of his kill if he'd make a double-target error? Do Hosts here do that?

I studied a theory of Swamp being killed on Night 4 and causing the SK to be paralysed on N5, but I am certain Golden was not Swamp (it's still pretty obvious who he was, after all) and Swamp would have still been killed, so it couldn't have been "????".

More replies after dinner.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Alternative theories to consider and my immediate thoughts:

MM is the SK -- would have to mean that there are tally-affecting mechanics in the SK's *secrets* which would seem to make that role immensely powerful. That doesn't mean it isn't the case, but it forces us to speculate in a completely unknown realm. I do think his recent behavior is suggestive of a player who's role has been correctly identified too.

MM would have died last Day, if the SK. I cannot fathom the SK not being able to be lynched. It's too OP - in fact, it'd be broken as fark. Think of it: the SK gets to kill three or four players during two Nights, but we wouldn't be able to lynch him during a Day? Implausible.

Besides, the D12 lynch wasn't a technical failure ("nobody has been lynched"), someone other than MM was lynched.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: MM is mafia -- This would likely mean that Drugs is still alive and the motel room lynch was coordinated accordingly. His team mate could easily be either Rico or Russ in this scenario. If this is the case though, the game is essentially over for the townies barring some really lucky breaks. It's also possible Wilgy was Drugs and MM is the last mafioso. The lasting concern for me is that when his lynch seemed imminent he vanished from the thread in such a way that it made me feel really good about how he'd flip. I again reiterate though that in this phase he has behaved like a player whose role has been figured out (without outing himself). While my concerns persist, I don't know if we can afford to rely on a theory this complex.

It's true your Drugs theory can match with my And She Was theory - and I also can tell that you have personal feelings causing you to do a Drugs + Blind equation, but I'm confident of what happened being related to my theory.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Rico is the SK -- The possibility exists only if the Night 5 problem can be resolved somehow, but if it can be then sure it's there. The primary issue I have is Rico's consistent immense effort throughout the game which would invite night kill attention from the mafia team and doesn't quite seem like self-aligned play. It could be that the *secrets* involve night kill protection of some kind which would be a bit less overpowered than lynch protection.

The N5 problem can't be solved from my angle. I wouldn't miss out on sending such a power, if I were SK, and I would not abstain from sending the kill in order to trick the community. Plus, I already said that, if by any absurd stretch of the imagination, I would have abstained, I would later have replicated the pattern to keep tricking the community, not goof around chaotically, like the real SK did.

I cannot say why my efforts have not costed me my life until now, but I can tell you for sure that any attempt on my life going through would have terminated me. Maybe I was protected during a Night (I did ask for it, after sinking Mac, I think). Maybe my killer was blocked. I don't know and can't tell, but I am most certainly not bulletproof on my own.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We have proposals and we have nice dinners with girlfriends. Meanwhile I have eight billion posts in a Mafia game. I have got to find a life.

I'm taking a break from girlfriends excepting nice dinners and especially proposals (still not over the suffering tbh...), but I should also take a break from Mafia, which I will.

Diiny wrote:WAIT IT'S FUCKING OBVIOUS

IF I WAS SK WHY WOULDN'T I JUST NO KILL LAST NIGHT TO MAKE MYSELF LOOK BETTER

THAT'S SOME RISKY FUCKING SHIT FOR A DOUBLE BLUFF

Okay seriously going now but chew on that

Riiiight, now you come with this bluff, when you're at the end of pulling out arguments.

I called the SK inconsistent for leaving his N5 hole stick out instead of improvising a no kill pattern hours ago. You ain't convincing me.

Wait, you mean this game will eventually end?

By my calculations, there's technically nothing JJJ and MM can do anymore during Nights, so I'm totally cool with Nights ending right away, even before allowing killers to send in any more kills. Yup.

What about D14? 48 hours, as usual? What does everyone else think?

Erratic*, even

Or better yet err-arctic

I'll run the theory "SK is empowered to multiple kills, by not receiving votes at any time during a phase" through my personal stats:

D1 both you and Russ received votes - SK killed once
D3 Russ received votes, but you didn't - SK killed once
D4 none of you received votes - SK killed twice
D5 both of you received votes - SK did not kill
D7 both of you received votes - SK killed once
D9 Russ received votes, you didn't - SK killed twice
D10 none of you received votes - SK killed once
D11 you received votes, Russ didn't - SK killed twice
D12 none of you received votes - SK killed twice

Everything in this is erractic, so the theory can't form into a pattern.

No, you said you "don't see why people are assuming that the most likely thing was for PSK to have missed his PMs". I pointed that's because, factually, the SK clearly didn't send any PM and, comparing reasons, abstinence is unlikelier than the SK missing out on action.

I'm open to hearing ideas other than abstinence or missing out, sure.

You not being here N5 is a reason to believe you are the SK missing out because of you missing out on the Night. AND the following Day phase.

I didn't say there's no pattern, nor that the pattern is random. I said the pattern is chaotic. Me not being able to explain it doesn't mean I'll just file it under *secrets* and never try to process things.

For instance, processing that since the pattern "Two kills, then no kills" did NOT repeat afterwards, that does NOT exclude the option that the NK missed out on his N5 kills. Which puts you in the front seat as the candidate.

If the pattern above would have showed up again (which I also thought it would, until N10 proved me wrong), I would have said, "Yep. It's a pattern and part of the SK's secrets. No reason to suspect N5 for being a missed vote, nor suspect Diiny because he's the most obvious player who phased out at that time."

But since that's not the case...

Diiny wrote:Aren't arbitrary-ass kills a good sign when tracking the SK? Think that this guy's very aware that they're going to be analysed. I doubt they'd pick someone they were clearly banging on about in-thread. Pardon the wifom, but you should at least consider that the SK killed fuzz/wilgy to frame me specifically because of how I was going on about them, or was convinced by my scummy look on the two.

I believe JJJ proved that the Fuzz/Wilgy kills could stand for all three of us (Russ, myself and you) as wanting to remove mafia, not necessarily wanting to remove someone suspecting you.

Diiny wrote:Decided to take yesterday off to let things brew.

The most important thing that occurred to me about night 5 (was it night 5?) is that I really, REALLY don't see why people are assuming that the most likely thing was for PSK to have missed his PMs. Pushing it like that and not even mentioning what I realised are quite obvious alternatives is making me uneasy.

The assumption that SK missed his PM is among the easiest to make, because:

a) there was no SK kill
b) Hosts confirmed that if the SK doesn't send a kill, they will not mention him in the Host Post
c) abstinence is not really common practice, at least here; feel free to tell me, with examples, if it is on RYM; heck, I even played a game on Jesus Toast Mafia and they started ripping inactives to shreds as soon as a killer role didn't do anything on a given Night, because of this exact assumption that that role derped and missed a PM
d) abstinence is not in the interest of a killer role (see Book of Epig, chapter 9, verses 12-13 on that), especially one that needs everybody dead

Diiny wrote: PSK can have different amount of NKs on different days, and so far we have no fucking idea how or why the number changes. I think it's more than fair to assume that he could just have no NKs that day. SK's SECRETS and the provable inconsistency in his NK numbers are more than enough to warrant giving this a serious thought.

I can no doubt agree, in principle, that the variability of the SK's kill attempt count can stem from his secrets. Problem is we can't define it, since the pattern is CHAOTIC.

N1 - one kill
N3 - one kill
N4 - TWO kills
N5 - NO kills
N7 - one kill
N9 - TWO kills
N10 - one kill
N11 - TWO kills
N12 - TWO kills

Explain to me why a host like MP would create a borderline schizophrenic SK role. There is no pattern in this, except that the kill count started to grow. N12 is compatible with the kill count starting to grow. A missed N5 kill is NOT compatible with the kill count starting to grow. It could be, in theory, compatible with a theory in which the SK gets to kill twice, then has no kill the subsequent night - but this was disproven already by the previous four Night phases.

Diiny wrote: There's also the ridiculously slim possibility that I was framed by some attentive mofo but I'm not going to pretend that's likely.

I've been thinking about it, but I give it just as much as credence as you do, basically, lol. Epig pulled a list of several people who didn't post on N5. Do you think the mofo was that attentive as to spot that all those six or seven players are not doing anything on Night 5 or that, among six or seven players, you are the most inactive of them, and plot something? I don't even recall you saying you will be out of business starting N5 (although you did foreshadow it with more RL announcements, previously), so can anyone be this attentive.

Do you think Russ was so attentive as to pull this on someone?
Do you think JJJ was so attentive as to pull this on someone?

Color derp on D6, but a good opportunity to bump my count #0.9Kherewego

Psycho Killer interpretation: "I'm gonna say or do nothing about potentially being clipped, because of a scum vs town confrontation, and lose the game due to misfortune"...? Naw, sounds more like SK absent was still absent. Diiny's prolonged absence only emphasizes further, for me at least, the odds of him being SK due to the N5 miss.

I'll probably make these up to D6 and then halt, to focus on RL business.

Diiny on Day 4

-- missed most of the Day, amuses himself of players thinking he was silenced or such
-- scrambles for some leads re: Sorsha or Devin; questions Sorsha having been a wagon or not on D2, I think?
-- decides for a banter vote on Golden, because he's not informed

Mafia / SK / whatever: null. out of touch seems genuine. Since I'm certain right now that he's bad, his vote move was an easy way out of the situation, regardless, but this activity is technically not something you can put it on the balance and start shouting "yeah, here's your scummy evidence".

Diiny on Night 4*

* hmm, first Night I recall Diiny posting at all. Very interesting taciturn tactic, for a baddie, either way. Probably started posting during the Nights to overcompensate his lack of activity during the Day, due to RL reasons.

-- plans to check what is up with Devin, reevaluate b24, check for bandwagons on Sorsha mislynch, re-check me and Wilgy, plans to read into how fingersplints is doing, in lieu of former suspect Llama

Mafia interpretation: Either an ill-advised (as town) or a well-placed (as mafia) focus on judging bandwagons and whether the mislynched player had a bad counterwagon. What I'm trying to say is that it's worth keeping in mind that this mentality caused us a lot of trouble, until we somewhat finally switched perspective. If he's mafia, Diiny fueled this a bit.

Psycho Killer interpretation: Just as much tinfoiling here as above, but as serial killer, this can be an attempt to cover all leads and re-assert how focused he is on multiple suspects.

Diiny on Day 5

-- apologetic post and "jumping straight into action"
-- criticises Wilgy for near-waffle scum read on JJJ
-- returns to feeling that Wilgy casing LC so late is not actually a good sign
-- plans to re-read me, drops it after seeing I have seven pages of history
-- rebutalls to me questioning his Wilgy suss thought process and his Golden vote
-- curious of Devin not interacting with him, although he insisted on getting thoughts out of everyone, suspects bandwagoning; exchange with Devin goes nowhere
-- rebuttal to JJJ calling him pretending to much out of people and failing to place a vote in the Devin/Sorsha wagons, despite having previous awareness -- stats that town Diiny doesn't make blind [no pun intended] decisive moves
-- votes JJJ for pep talking the field
-- further rebuttal to JJJ's suss on him
-- in reply to Mac, comments on Devin's replacement request, finds it a joke, but then also a possibility of a caveat; votes Devin
-- confirms abandoning Rico reads, focuses on espers
-- rebuttal to JJJ on Devin vote - pushing for response; further rebuttals
-- weirded out by a WIFOM-looking statement from espers
-- rethinks about Devin doing self-vote scum caveats
-- votes espers instead
-- his vote on espers putting him and Devin at 6-6, the following two posts explain eagerness to see a dev flip happening "no matter what" or, in reply to Mac, with whom he agrees, seeing a coin flip

Mafia interpretation: Can be read mostly as possible waffle between two wagons he'd be aware would not flip mafia. For a moment, that "toin coss" talk at the Eod, especially with a baddie such as MacBaddie, made me jump a bit at the thought of mafiosi snickering out loud about this lynch result - but, as I've explained above, it sounds genuine that Diiny didn't anticipate two more votes on espers, after his.

Psycho Killer interpretation: Another attempt to stick to his main suspicions, at least early on, afterwards becoming focused on current events. Focus and language are not as confident as on the first three Days, I should say, so the SK inside Diiny might have been struggling to keep up and look attached to a main story.

Consistency seems to be, again, the main drive. To anticipate Diiny's complaints at this remark, no, I cannot completely distinguish this being SK rather than town, but consistency and civ-looking games can be definitory for an SK's tactics.

Blind interpretation: Just like JJJ's vote, if he is Blind instead, Diiny's vote could have added to Devin's misery (minus 1 on espers, plus Devin being drugged = life sucks). Not to mention Pulled Up might have also been there on Devin, if he was b24.

Diiny on N5

Diiny was absent. SK did not make a move. Empiricism sucks.

Diiny on D6

Diiny was absent. Nearly lynched, as counter to a confirmed baddie.

Mafia interpretation: "I'm gonna say nothing against me becoming a counter-wagon and will agree to take one for the team, for Mac's sake, despite the fact that until the build up of the wagon, I was still looking slightly better than Mac at this point in the collective's mentality"...? I'd say nope on this.

Psycho Killer interpretation: "I'm gonna say or do nothing about potentially being clipped, because of a scum vs town confrontation, and lose the game due to misfortune"...? Naw, sounds more like SK absent was still absent. Diiny's prolonged absence only emphasizes further, for me at least, the odds of him being SK due to the N5 miss.

===

Imma stop here with the analysis, but before I do that, I want to point out that Diiny's reaction to his near lynch was "(And you may ask yourself:) How did I get so popular all of a sudden?". In context of him being a baddie, it sounds like a shrug off, in order to seem calm about how awful his situation nearly went. I can associate this more with SK doing a poker face moment than with a mafioso who, if really out of touch, probably still received around a million PMs from his teammates on how to handle the situation.

I'll be here during this afternoon, but I also have homework, which I'm planning to start soon, rather than staying hooked online. I'll also be here during the last two hours or so.

Diiny on Day 3

-- apologetic post about being limited to phone mafia
-- unconcerned by JJJ making "creepy" posts about wanting to flip (?); makes a projection of JJJ being readable through his reads/analysis not looking well or such
-- questions Floyd's vote and activity
-- feels better about Wilgy, although aware he could tinfoil his effort into having bussed LC (but not pursuing this angle); still unhappy about Llama
-- comments on being glad he didn't jump on b24 wagon
-- pinged by my read on LC before his flip; sees my defense as WIFOM-filled
-- lashes at Llama for commenting on too much posts flooding the thread and making it hard for him to keep up
-- continues suspicion on me for sounding caveaty in assessing LC
-- agrees with Mac on both Llama continuing to look scummy AND his counterwagon being, however, unlikely to be also a bad one (although confuses the facts in saying the llama wagon never picked up)
-- sticks vote on me, finding me defensive and keen to misinterpret accusations

Mafia interpretation: Again aware of Floyd's odd behaviour being off the charts. That "I'm glad I listened to my senses and didn't vote b24" is either purely ironic or quite telling, in context of scum holding off the b24 wagon. Attack on me waffling on LC could be a genuine one or an easy spray target. All these are not really strong observations, however, more on the thin line between "possible" and "reading too much into". But man, so far, until the main game-changer D6 event, I feel I wouldn't have any problem reading Diiny as mafia for these details on D2-D3.

Psycho Killer intepretation: Not much to read into, honestly, his activity dropped due to RL, but his focused increase, by keeping alive a llama suspicion and developing the one on me. If the SK was as consistent and hunt-prone as possible, this looks as consistent and hunt-prone as it can get.

Blind interpretation: His range would have been back at 0 during this Day, so he would have had no issues with pursuing a top wagon.

This day comes off pretty null, overall, in terms of some aspect making the needle start dancing towards a particular faction.

Diiny on Day 2

-- agrees with RDW's viewpoint (or meta reference) that death mourners might be the killers themselves (inadvertedly agrees with suspecting Llama for it?)
-- dislikes seaside calling OMGUS on JJJ
-- hella pinged by Sorsha and Strawhenge making WIFOM necklaces around each other's necks for talking about killing 4KJ
-- questions Strawhenge being focused on Ham; considers Strawhenge distancing himself from killing Ham
-- reads Wilgy's BWT the worst (despite, as I even pointed out back then, this being contradictory with agreeing with Wilgy on D1)
-- criticises seaside's meta game and votes for him; reconsiders after rebuttals
-- reissues intent to lynch b24, because of seeing no town activity from him whatsoever
-- plans to look at LC, although nothing stood out to him
-- rebuttal on me being pinged by his flip on Wilgy (did not endorse Wilgy's vote, only considered BWT on his own - I still find this exchange fishy, btw)
-- questions FZ's suspicion of Wilgy [what the hell, he just said he had a scum lean on Wilgy, as well]
-- would still vote Wilgy, but would consider securing b24 over LC
-- pinged by b24 wagon growing (...I think?)
-- makes another call for a Wilgy lynch
-- comments on MacDougall talking about a gut read on Llama, when Zebra questions that talk
-- questions what Floyd is up to (to the extent of a possible gambit)
-- lashes back at Llama's vote for him
-- questions JJJ staying with his vote on b24; stays pinged by JJJ to some extent
-- decides to spare Wilgy for the moment (because of doing some analysis) and votes Llama

Mafia interpretation: If Mafia, this certainly doesn't look to be Diiny's finest day. Only made one post of awareness on LC and then never checked him out, like he said he would. There's a comment about Zebra going at Mac for something that could read as very, very fine soft defending (but I'm not implying it weighs that much, it's more tinfoil) and, in context of b24 never having been voted by scum (other than LC in self-pres mode), his suss on b24 waning, simply because it started to look like a mislynch, can look a bit "yeah, I'll remove myself off him, too". Oh and he does make an aware post about Floyd acting weirdly, something that would probably be the norm for any teammate at that point.

Psycho Killer interpretation: Again, not his most consistent day, by comparing suspicions to where the votes landed (seaside, Llama). b24 suss went nowhere, Wilgy suss was his most consistent, but he lost faith in that due to context (no wagon on Wilgy) or BOTD'ing (Wilgy making efforts to look into things). His Llama vote is the most spontaneous and partially a bit of a NO U, as well, considering Llama's vote.

Amount of workload and hunting is fairly consistent compared to his D1, although I find it more focused, rather than agressive and jumping at everyone. Perhaps some fine-tuning here, after D1 got him in slight trouble?

Blind interpretation: If so, Diiny may have found reason to stick with a Llama vote as to not interfere with the main wagons. Although, it must be said that, after Diiny's vote, Llama himself became a top wagon for a while, so I'm doubting he projected his vote this way - and he had no control later, because of leaving for the day. Hence, I'm doubting he acted Blind-like or is in fact Blind at all.

Now, here's two more bits of WIFOM for ya:

I would never, under normal circumstances, tactically abstain from delivering a kill or a bad action, if I'm bad and such powers serve my interest directly. To some extent, I can see the point in some civ powered players abstaining from using their powers, if it can prove detrimental to the general civ cause (I've given before the example of River accidentally taking a mafioso off the roster, at this very crucial point in the game, should he keep sending his two names; unfortunately, River was already dead by then). I agree with Epig's idea that killers abstaining from killing is not the rational way for them to behave.

If, by any wild stretch of the imagination*, I would be the SK and would have missed a N5 action, my instinct would have been to further replicate that succession of two kills then no kill, even at the risk of letting too many players live, in order to perhaps trick everyone into thinking it's a power-derived occurence. MM and I did have this thought, in fact, until we were proven wrong by the SK himself continuing to kill, after kill twice (and lately killing twice no matter what).

* to my recollection, in my gaming so far I have missed a vote during Lynch phases twice (Film Directors endgame and Watchmen D4 or D5), because of falling asleep, and once forgot to send my night power in Recruitement (a negative vote, I think, that I totally forgot about, because of a lynch turning into a snowball taking my mind off needing to insert some vote manipulation).

Fell asleep, don't even remember logging off (does that happen automatically after some time?). No Mafia dreams this time.

Thanks for those, JJJ, that angle is definitely helpful (and shorter to assess, in a way), but I'm going to push ahead with mine as well, at least as much as time will permit (which, as I've said, won't be enough in general). Can you do Russ as well, for safe measure?

As for the notes on me, while I still don't have any background or experience as a designated killer (mafia or SK/LMS) (only a teammate getting to pitch in on kill choices) in order to give you clear, psychological rebuttals (not that it wouldn't count as WIFOM, anyway) to your interpretations of my possible actions, here's my take on it:

-- I believe it to be obvious that Government disappeared around the N3 kills time, making FZ. a candidate for that role; if she was Government, then I don't think her suspicion of me simply waned off naturally, but that's obviously pretty much all I can say

-- yes, Golden and I were pretty confrontational in this game, to the point of arguing over meta and over what we're actually trying to achieve by going at each other; I see my defending against Golden not being different, really, from my huge barks against my D3 hounders, of which you and Diiny are still alive, Zebra was killed by Mafia and the other voters (whilst less hounders themselves and more voters or wagoners) were mislynched. Given this field, I see no reason to have made an exception out of Golden. If anything, I was driven by my confrontation with Golden to vote him on D3 and push him into lynch, rather being blinded as to read into his true intentions of wanting to get lynched.

Anyway, what I want to say, more to the point, is that such a suss - defense game I played with Golden would not make me in any way anxious or make me desire to remove Golden simply for stalking me every time I go get bread, to see if I'm not snatching some knives as well

-- with Epig, past the first rounds of suss, I like to believe that I progressively convinced mostly everyone with a town mindset of my good intentions and efforts (in this regard, I feel the mafia and the SK also behaved, rather than attempting to paintspray me), especially after D6 (vote mistakes and wobbles afterwards notwithstanding). I never felt Epig's suss call on me was deep, considering he never built a case around me to the extent he did on Bullzeye, Black Rock, Russ, Mac, seaside and so on. He still resonated with others suspecting me, until he didn't - and all of these were simply moments, rather than continuous assessments (we somehow still never seem to connect beyond such fragmentary interactions, in the games we play together)

-- at this point, I agree Matt's death is probably the biggest one that could be placed in my account, but I have two things to say here: 1) Since I'm not the SK, I tend to believe Matt's death is maybe an attempt to spray me as the serial killer and divert attention from the real serial killer. It reminds me of Recruitement IV and me having (as usual, sadly) a big spat with LoRab. Right when that confrontation reached boiling point, one of the killers decided to kill one of the two members in this dialogue, i.e. LoRab. He failed to do so, but the effect was that LoRaB herself suspected me wanting to shut her up. So I believe this effect can be sought out, as a tactic, by killers outside a confrontation rather than inside it. 2) Killing Matt, as the SK or mafia, in the midst of such intense confrontation, would actually make me more anxious than not. I don't know how much of our Syndicate Mafia time together you recall, JJJ, but the degree of connection a kill can lead back to its killer is quite important for me, when I'm mafia and think about who the team should kill. It rather makes me want to let the hounder live and face the challenge of open confrontation, rather than suppress the hounder and create the least desirable ripple effect: people suspecting the hounded for it. This is WIFOM, of course, but it's consistent with my previous mindsets as a baddie.

-- I thought Strawhenge's death, at the time of it, was either MM going balls to the walls (it still wasn't clear for me, at that time, who MM might be) or the SK wanting to spray all over MM

-- your Fuzz and Wilgy interpretations are pretty much the same for Diiny and me, so I can't add that much personal viewpoint to what is a more general scenario for the SK's moves; I can even agree that the SK may have wanted to keep the mafia numbers in check. In fact, I am shocked that the SK inadvertedly helped my dilemma regarding 'which of three players are the two remaining baddies" equation, instead of killing me or another civ and leaving the dilemma up in the air, making the civ's job far worse throughout this endgame. The only explanation I can think of is the SK being worried he might go through D13-N13 (in which the Mafia can also kill) with one too many mafiosos on the other side. He may have wanted to deal with the mafia, even by thinking there's only one left, because on N13 the mafioso might clip him with his kill, just as much as he might kill the mafioso on the same Night.

Oh wait, concluded my scan too early and missed this post, in which he justifies his BWT vote a bit more, and comments on the others he suspected (Roxy, b24).

So consider my last paragraph redacted.

Before I start posting these, I want to make it clear I can make no promises to compile these all the way through - on one hand, Diiny has 11 pages as of right now, the kind of number MacBaddie had on his lynch D6 and JJJ had on Dusk 0; on the other hand, tomorrow I have to study, do some homework and go to a concert, mainly to meet afterwards with some of the musicians and discuss business (although the event itself is promising on its own: a screening of Nosferatu with a new contemporary music score, player live, to accompany it), so my time will be limited and far from satisfactory to complete this endeavor.

Diiny on Day 1

Day 1

• -- comments on JJJ's strategy to test people's reaction to him saying he'd be minimal poster, intends to keep an eye on Zebra's activity, despite being satisfied with his reaction to said testing
  -- criticises b24's weak start to the game (by making an RVS and not interacting enough)
  -- pinged by Sorsha
  -- heavily pinged by Roxy's random vote and banter, finds it faux-play and "trying to look involved, but doing so in the least accountable way"; keeps pressuring Roxy to explain her intentions
  -- defensive reply to Llama calling him Detective Aggressive Scumhunt von Threadleader (referencing that he's done it as town on plenty occasions, even at the risk of mislynch)
  -- calls his D1 MO "going hard, flinging shit", putting pressure on a player and on those reacting besides on the issues
  -- defends against FZ. feeling that he started voicing opinions at her signal
  -- in reply to JJJ, comments on his Scumhunt von Threadleader tactic not requiring him to go over-aggressive; questions JJJ pursuing this line of questioning
  -- spends more time on questioning Roxy and the people reacting to the issue (such as bea)
  -- questions LC on more suspects than his jump on bea
  -- defensive against sig picking up the ideas that Diiny might be very (or too) aggressive
  -- plans to check B24's meta
  -- in reply to Mac accussing him of not responding to accusations, comments that he's focusing on who to vote for, believes that people intending to vote him will do so, regardless of his rebuttals
  -- pinged by sig demanding players who question to follow that up with reasons, too
  -- questions Wilgy's reason for voting BWT, based on the playstyle claim alone (finds it himself to raise a flag, but not enough to make him vote)
  -- votes BWT in self-defense, at the end of activity

Mafia interpretation - Not much to go with, except a moment of either inspired (if non-Mafia) or planned (if Mafia) questioning of LC's methods. Slightly more important is that fend off of Mac telling him to respond to accusations and him saying he'd rather do his thing. It's tinfoilable (but to be fair, probably not more than that) that, on a day when LC was up to shenanigans and Mac created a bit of distance on that, whilst the other baddies snoozed or were inactive, a baddie Diiny would want to look like he's focusing on his completely separate MO.

SK interpretation - A day of rather intense opinionating, finger waving at people failing at different standards (either lurking, or bantering, or something else) and engaging on all levels, with multiple references to this being the natural gameplay he endorses and which describes him (including referencing meta). As much as I never like to credit llama's line of inquiry being any good, it's quite ironic that he may have nailed what Diiny was doing - which is scumhunt-threadleading. Diiny's defenses to several players on the issue of his gameplay gives me mixed signals. The SK version of those signals would be that he intended to start D1 very engaged and seemingly hunt focused, but then got a bit nervous at players questioning this exact thing; he was a wagon possibility up to a point, so his defensiveness could be in reaction to his MO potentially backfiring.

I need to check how active Diiny stayed after D1 - my impression is that he dropped significantly, but, again, I should also check this factually. Anyway, D1 was intense and something Diiny, in principle, can claim it shows him doing serious town moves (hunting, questioning, testing, baiting, not taking any crap or shenanigans from others etc.)

His self-def on BWT checks out, statistically, although he had otherwise nothing on voting the man. It also makes him look fishy for appearing to ahve dropped all the suspicions that he ever had (b24 for lurking, Roxy for rogue gameplay, LC for casemaking, sig for sounding pushy in demands) - none of these were ever transported into an EoD wrap-up style. Again, it looks like intense work meant to cash in a town check.

DrWilgy wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I thought the 8-bit version of TMbtP I used for Wilgy's death was fun.

Indeed! I enjoyed it so much I started working on this:

and have been trying to get it adjusted to the beat of the song.

Wilgyson, help me host a NES mafia in which you create animated versions of the players.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:What tie?

Golden won as top wagon. Blind being on me and misfiring would have just dropped me lower by one vote.

If Pulled Up voted Golden (say... b24) then he further pushed Golden into getting lynched. If Pulled Up didn't vote on either wagons (say... Zebra or Matt), it didn't change anything.

As I just pointed out, Blind couldn't have misfired on Day 3. On Day 1, a civilian was lynched, so his range went up to +1. On Day 2, mafia was lynched, so his range would go back down to 0.

So on Day 3, his vote would have been accurate.

Derp.

It still wasn't a tie.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

MetalMarsh wrote:Jay mentioned this before, and I agree with him (especially since he was the one who suggested it). Seaside checked the lynch, saw a number on you that was not 6 (so probably less than 6), and rather than assume all of the role possibilities, he assumed bad news.

On the other hand, Blind's vote should not have been randomized at that point, right? By my understanding, Blind's "range" should have been 0 on that day.

This is also true. Further evidence of not believing seaside really checked that Day or saw something on Jay and/or Diiny.

If Pulled Up and Blind's votes were both there, Golden still could have won the tie, right?

What tie?

Golden won as top wagon. Blind being on me and misfiring would have just dropped me lower by one vote.

If Pulled Up voted Golden (say... b24) then he further pushed Golden into getting lynched. If Pulled Up didn't vote on either wagons (say... Zebra or Matt), it didn't change anything.

Sloonei wrote: It came Winter of 2015, actually.

JJJ told me about that.

MetalMarsh wrote:Jay mentioned this before, and I agree with him (especially since he was the one who suggested it). Seaside checked the lynch, saw a number on you that was not 6 (so probably less than 6), and rather than assume all of the role possibilities, he assumed bad news.

On the other hand, Blind's vote should not have been randomized at that point, right? By my understanding, Blind's "range" should have been 0 on that day.

This is also true. Further evidence of not believing seaside really checked that Day or saw something on Jay and/or Diiny.

Choutas wrote:Let's not forget the theme.

MGM ew

^Aren't you still in limbo, trying to find Mal?

We can't afford to eliminate anymore civs. Blind's vote on lylo will be 50-50 and, yes, it's true that, if the lylo will be 2 civs - 1 baddie, Blind's vote along with the other civ, should they vote the baddie, will be a dice roll. I have in mind a variant that might work slightly better for the civs, but I'd rather not say it out loud, where baddie ears could hear it.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:If The Great Curve is out there reading this, I suggest they use their one-time power today.

Also, I think someone claimed he was a terrorist, claimed to avert a catastrophe.

Wert zebra being Pulled Up, there is this post.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:^^^and this post came on Night 3, just after the lynch that seaside presumable "looked" at.

He could have instinctively asked for Great Curve to check what might happened after a Day phase in which Golden won a lynch with 6 votes, yet bea got killed with no votes. ... although it's a bit murky to understand why zebra would request vote manipulations to be checked, when what happened was more a thing of roles manipulation.

Plus, for the umpteenth time, I don't understand why seaside would suspect seeing anything on JJJ or Diiny, if one of them is supposed to be Blind and there were no drugs involved (because Night 2 was skipped). If I would have had that role (the song is probably my favorite TH one) and had checked Day 3 and saw that there was one vote less (Blind) and/or one vote more (Pulled Up), both not fitting a baddie's role (Drugs giving +2), I would be pretty bad at my role to leave breadcrumbs on this being suspicious. Nothing against seaside, but I think we're making stuff out of a legacy that he didn't really leave. Or, if he did, it's not a good one.

Also, after a good night's sleep, I realized my "Pulled Up could have had +1 on LC D2" logic was 3am shit tier, because Pulled Up only gets empowered by non-civ lynches, not by civ mislynches.

So that leaves us with two explanations: Blind is Diiny and there was no interference with the main wagons. JJJ (or Russ? ) is Blind and their vote fortunately stuck on LC. Put this in a vacuum and, yeah, it's a 50-50 between Diiny and JJJ. But add in some other cues for Diiny being bad (unlikelihood of him being mafia, his absence), compared to JJJ pretty much being Satan incarnate if he's bad, plus some other factors I can (questioning JJJ to good result) or can't be specific about, and I'm leaning Diiny is bad, JJJ is Blind.

With due apologies, I must go to bed right now.

Diiny wrote:How. Long. Has. This. Fucking. Thread. Existed.

A month and four days and counting.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:To be fair Rico, I don't think Diiny being Mac's counterwagon on Day 6 precludes him from being mafia-aligned. I do think there is other evidence to suggest that though.

Yes, the reveal that only MacBaddie voted on that counterwagon, despite requesting it in the open, makes me wonder just a bit, but does Mac's attitude tell you he was resigned to Diiny, as teamie, becoming his counterwagon, or indifferent, knowing Diiny is not his teammate?

Mac openly resisted Diiny as the counterwagon on Day 6 (he literally told motel room he wanted it to be DrWilgy). I later interpreted this as a WIFOMburger in Diiny's favor and not in Doc's favor. It's possible I had it backwards.

Yeah, but we don't know Wilgy's flip, so it could have still been an attempt, as you've said, to push for an unlikely Wilgy (as teammate) lynch, only to not leave breadcrumbs afterwards, by sounding like he was truly invested in Wilgy's lynch and instead WIperFOoM all over the place.

I did a summary of Mac's interactions with Wilgy and Diiny, before end of N12 (with links to the original reads, as well). Maybe check it out and give your impression on who looks more likely as Mac's teammate in that whole affair (or in general).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:On RYM, the concept of "infodumping" doesn't exist (until #88 when I brought it from here) because revealing role-related information is considered the norm and not some kind of controversial behavior. That's why I think guys like seaside, Choutas, and Strawhenge all struggled mightily with that rule in this game -- it's foreign to RYMers and they've never been faced with that particular variable.

None of the examples I mentioned, save for perhaps Golden in here, were infodumps. I guess they could be technically called rolehints, that said roles later would have used, especially under lynch pressure, to try to make the players figure it out and avoid the mislynch.

Actually, correction, there's also Zebra as a N3 victim, that could be Pulled Up. If not, then a player such as b24 at the earliest on N9.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:To be fair Rico, I don't think Diiny being Mac's counterwagon on Day 6 precludes him from being mafia-aligned. I do think there is other evidence to suggest that though.

Yes, the reveal that only MacBaddie voted on that counterwagon, despite requesting it in the open, makes me wonder just a bit, but does Mac's attitude tell you he was resigned to Diiny, as teamie, becoming his counterwagon, or indifferent, knowing Diiny is not his teammate?

And what other evidence would you say?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Diiny

I've run through the scenarios in my head. Basically what it comes down to is that one of either Diiny or Jay is Blind.

Here's a couple points why Diiny is likely the PSK.

1) As we all know, he missed Night 5 and Day 6, the only night that the Psycho Killer had the oppurtunity to kill, but didn't.

2) Day 7, Diiny votes for Jay. Jay looks like he's going to be lynched, but there's a very late push against seaside, and he's lynched instead. Diiny is one of the last players to switch from Jay to seaside. Jay was about to be lynched, but not only did he lose the pursuit at the last moment, players like Epignosis lost interest in lynching Jay for the time being. Night 7, the same player is targeted for nightkill by both the Psycho Killer and Mafia. The player is likely Blind. Looking at it in context, Jay is a likely kill-target because he wasn't lynched. It actually makes more sense for mafia to target Jay with a nightkill then for the PSK, but we just happen to know that they both targeted the same player.

I won't deny that Diiny looks purer in the vote tally, because of any possible conflict or exposure. JJJ has a questionable D2 in which, if he is Blind, he either luckily remained with his vote on LC or another role, such as perhaps Pulled Up (who already would have had a +1, based on BWT's mislynch from D1). If Pulled Up wasn't killed on N1, then he was killed on N9 at the latest. B24 could be such a candidate. B24 voted LC on D2.

But to this I add that I tested JJJ during N12 with some questions and I feel he replied very quick and pertinent to them. I only have like, say, 10% doubts of him having done so with full intent, but nefariously.

Meanwhile, let's think of why Diiny, if Blind, wouldn't act in any way under pressure to his own benefit, especially if the game now boils down to two baddies and he accepted the plausibility of you being town? Is it simply for the purity of so called "playing Mafia"? I find that hard to believe. I've played for almost a year here and civs often couldn't resist dropping hints under pressure of lynch. FZ hinted at being Near in Death Note. I hinted at being ninja civ in Donner (via shooting llama in the face #top3moments :nobleemoji:). Jacob, Joseph or whoever it was hinted at being the Day prolonger, in Biblical. You hinted at being the Comedian in Watchmen. Dragon hinted at being Manhattan in Watchmen. Golden hinted, then outed himself being Oh-Oh in here.

I doubt his environment, back on RYM, is purer or more strict than this. I'd rather believe he isn't Blind.

Now, as to your points:

1) Yes, I think it can be empirical evidence. Augmented furthermore by his D6 inactivity, which only makes sense (instead of resisting a near lynch in any way), if you were truly out of touch.

2) Sounds reasonable. I agree that Blind must have been targeted once, if not twice, by now.

Again, I'm sorry and can empathise with feeling that your plane suddenly lost its wings and is tumbling down (hey, in a future game, it can well happen to me; or anyone else), simply because I'm reaching conclusions via a slightly different angle. But since I haven't been sanctioned so far for working out my deductions, it must mean I'm still doing it properly.

Diiny wrote:Why are you so against the idea of casing me? Are you scared that you won't actually be able to mount a proper case and that you'll lose your easy button? There's nothing to lose if you're town, so just do it and let me respond.

linki: your deductions are incorrect because I am town. Talk to me about them as much as you can without infodumping or you're going to spend this crucial day phase pushing a lynch that can (will?) cost town the game

I have deduced that MM might be And She Was, after the D12 lynch result and certain hints I picked from MM's posts that could be (re)interpreted as not wanting to face exposure rather than a lynch (which, in his role, would have been highly unlikely anyway).

I have deduced a role that JJJ might be and his answers to my inquiry have proven satisfactory.

That leaves two players, out of which the unlikelihood of you being mafioso (due to a specific lynch event) makes me deduce you must be the SK.

Anyway, I'll make some evaluation tomorrow, just in case you're the baddie (but seriously, you want me to believe you were counterwagon to MacBaddie as a teammate and you didn't even bother to show up during that entire Day) and Russ is SK, to see if it hurts our chances, if we don't catch the SK today.

Diiny wrote:I have criteria, I just don't have facts. Give me time.

You have... muddy criteria, and a bad knowlege of my facts. Yet you're pushing a half case on me as if you're actually making an informed decision.

If you're going to lynch me because of fucking consistent game play , something you're ACTUALLY ADMITTING DOESN'T EVEN SHOW ANYTHING SOMETIMES, then go ahead.

Tell me your criteria, then.

Which facts have I mistaken or misconstrued, if you say I have bad knowledge of them?

Ironically, a half case is almost something to take as compliment, considering that MacBaddie said I have zero case and all bullsuit on him, when I haunted him successfully.

Consistency is something an SK can aspire to. Of course one can't say "X is SK because he's so consistent", that's just silly.

Diiny wrote:That comment still holds true. You went on in great detail about how I'd be confirmed bad if it wasn't for russ and you wouldn't need to actually play mafia.

Russ is still alive.

Play mafia.

Read again. I said that Russ complicated by being a third player in an equation in which I need to deduce two baddies.

Wilgy was killed, without the Host confirming the mafia team has been eliminated.

There is no longer a third player in the equation in which I need to deduce the two baddies. There's just the two baddies.

Q.E.D.

Everything I'm doing is playing mafia. I'm sorry if it sucks for you personally that my deductions (which I have not stepped out of boundaries with, nor presented in a fashion to distort, disrupt or alter the dynamic of the game) have led to reading you bad.

So you don't have any answers or personal criteria (yet) as to who is SK or how to track him, yet you demand of me to case the hell out of you being SK by standards such as consistent gameplay and votes. (which I've already said that could sometimes be indicative, but other times not, especially if the SK seeking consistency was precisely his MO).