The Syndicate

RIP bea

Turnip Head wrote:

Ricochet wrote:TH, I don't understand what you're implying "in light of the recent secrets that were revealed". As in, I'm reading the recent secrets that were revealed, and still don't get what you're implying about the "two days" part and about borderline everybody being aware that Higuchi has the DN. Light's team? Obviously (from the beginning of DN ownership going to Higuchi). Remaining Yotsubas? Obviously (from the beginning of DN ownership going to Higuchi and their kill vote power activating). But all the detectives? Matsuda is dead. Penber and Misora, probably (starting from when when Light stops killing, hence the beginning of DN ownership going to Higuchi). The rest?

linki: noted

Then you didn't read carefully enough.

Right, I did miss out on L and Watari. Still not quite there yet at "all detectives", though, but I'll leave it at that.

EBWOP: two nights, not days

TH, I don't understand what you're implying "in light of the recent secrets that were revealed". As in, I'm reading the recent secrets that were revealed, and still don't get what you're implying about the "two days" part and about borderline everybody being aware that Higuchi has the DN. Light's team? Obviously (from the beginning of DN ownership going to Higuchi). Remaining Yotsubas? Obviously (from the beginning of DN ownership going to Higuchi and their kill vote power activating). But all the detectives? Matsuda is dead. Penber and Misora, probably (starting from when when Light stops killing, hence the beginning of DN ownership going to Higuchi). The rest?

linki: noted

Turnip Head wrote:By the way, in light of the recent secrets that were revealed: all detectives, Light's team, and the majority of the Yotsubas will be made aware that Higuchi has a Death Note approximately two nights after he receives it. Kind of like an open secret. Something to keep in mind, folks. I'd say it's likely he doesn't have it yet, so we'll have to consider other explanations for why it appears a different Kira has started killing, if that theory is to be believed.

Huh?

Since FZ. pointed it out, it is indeed true that Epignosis mentioned his idea of MM being a Shinigami 2 minutes after the poll concluded. Also, TH did in fact ask him what he thinks of MM with around 5 hours left to go, to which FZ herself assumed TH is still getting the silence treatment from Epig, which Epig then confirmed - this was somewhere in between TH making his small case against MM and the train on MM picking up (the next vote after this was zeek's and it was only the 3rd vote, I think, from those MM received).

I suspect Epig's rebuttal will be that, indeed, nobody besides TH, who is bound to get no answers from him, has asked him about MM.

But since he now also (sort of) implied all it would have taken was listening to his, I suppose, previous statements he made on MM, I went and checked.

First of all, a huge gap in days between today and the last time Epig, on record, has addressed something about MM or even interacted with him. Last one on Day 5, but on a different issue. Then Day 4, an assumption that Snowman's early-voting secret win requirement, revealed to us through the puzzle, could also be part of TH's and MM's win requirements (btw, right now only TH can still qualify for this; MM's vote on D7 was the sixth)

Epignosis wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I'm interested in the early voting for TH, given the revelation that it was a mechanic for Snowman.

What do you mean?

Line 14. Snowman had to be one of the first five people to vote. With the early voting, it makes me wonder if a similar mechanic is in Turnip Head's role (and MM's, while we're at it).

Oh, and didn't llama vote early too?

He did.

My vote was impulsive.

I can guess why.

Earlier, on Day 3, a dismissal of MM's case (and early vote) on him.

Epignosis wrote:

zeek wrote:Very convincing case, MM, I hadn't put together all those inconsistencies from Epi. Although I'm not sure on you, your points are persuasive. I may vote Epi if he convince me otherwise.

I really don't know what to make of all the strange behaviour in this game tbh, feels like it's going to be quite a random game.

Go for it zeek. I didn't even read MM's case on me and don't plan to post any manner of defense. I'm the easy choice today and I'm okay with that. If you're a detective though, lynching me won't help you.

Earlier, also Day 3, a criticism of TH's and MM's voting early but still posting excessively afterwards.

Epignosis wrote:Perhaps it is the novelty of having a game with more posts than Dr. Who, but I wonder why TH and MM continue to post and post and post and post even after they have voted. Is it an effort to make it difficult for detectives to read and catch up?

Any other reference to MM or dialogue with him, earlier than this, I personally found it to be not as relevant or on a different issue.

So, yes, two references to TH's and MM's behaviours being similar and probably related to the same reasons, but a lot of days ago and even before TH's lynch failed. A reminder might indeed have come in handy, regardless if it would have affected in any way the lynch train for MM.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:I think Misa has her Death Note still, but I think she would relinquish it if we ever tried to lynch her.

So you think not lynching the person you think is Misa is the best option? Would that not just leave the Death Note in her hands until the game is over?

Did I say that? Did I say any of that?

And not necessarily. There ARE other ways to deal with Misa, you know.

Ooh, that is a very interesting point you bring up. Shit's about to get real.

I can't think of what that interesting point might be, tbh. Care to tell, TH?

That's fine with me, in that case, it just read to me like she put L in the same category (or clause, as I put it) with Near (and Mello, which she didn't mention/forgot to mention/didn't know about/any other reason) and, if so, it is not true.

Boomslang wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

FZ. wrote: Second, am I wrong, or is Near the only detective who can't be lynched (other than L, but then someone dies instead of him)? Doesn't this makes the likelihood of MM being bad pretty high?
I'm not sure I get how the mechanics work here, but how are we supposed to get unlynchable people to die?

Near and Mello are both unlynchable (but also powerless) until L dies. Where does it say that L cannot be lynched, though?

MM's likelihood of being a bad unlynchable are about the same as TH's, at this point, I think.

All unlynchable "humans" can become lynchable at some point. All unlynchable Shinigamis are not be lynchable at all, at least judging from the revealed secrets (only Rem could sacrifice herself for Misa's sake).

As long as Watari is still alive, L can't be lynched. From the role page:

Serving as a father-like figure to L, Watari is very protective of him. If L is ever about to be lynched, Watari dies in his place.

Yes, that translates as one lynch escape. Also, in that eventuality, Watari will be lynched. There will be a lynch and Watari will be revealed to have be lynched, right? This is not the same as the non-lynch we've experienced with TH and MM. This is not the same as the unlynchable clauses Near and Mello have.

Turnip Head wrote:Interesting stuff Boo. I haven't read through all of your analysis yet but I certainly will soon. In the meantime, I have two new suspects of my own based on how these players behaved during the MM non-lynch that I will be investigating as potential Light and Misa suspects.

Unfortunately, I think at this point the only Kira we can lynch is still Mikami (X-Kira), and Mikami could be just about anyone, so I'm really not sure how to proceed in that sense.

Misa can also be lynched, unless she has relinquished the DN at this point and she is unlynchable for up to three days. Do you think she did that, since you rule her out? If yes, why?

FZ. wrote: Second, am I wrong, or is Near the only detective who can't be lynched (other than L, but then someone dies instead of him)? Doesn't this makes the likelihood of MM being bad pretty high?
I'm not sure I get how the mechanics work here, but how are we supposed to get unlynchable people to die?

Near and Mello are both unlynchable (but also powerless) until L dies. Where does it say that L cannot be lynched, though?

MM's likelihood of being a bad unlynchable are about the same as TH's, at this point, I think.

All unlynchable "humans" can become lynchable at some point. All unlynchable Shinigamis are not be lynchable at all, at least judging from the revealed secrets (only Rem could sacrifice herself for Misa's sake).

Welp.

Well with less than half an hour left to vote, I feel I definitely can't build a proper reasoning on voting MM. TH's particular case on him does put him in a suspicious light, but I would only be following his [TH's] read rather than thinking it through and in a bigger picture - which is that I don't have a strong opinion on MM, currently. With the current tally, I guess we'll find out if it was a good issue to pick up on; hopefully it was and he is bad.

What I've focused more was on FZ., the cases against her and her rebuttals. I think Llama's case was a bit retroactive, but sufficient. I think Epig's initial case was even better. But some of FZ's rebuttal also strike me as genuine (and others already found it the same way) and, as I've said, I have to choose between believing her frustrations and pleads that her lynch will prove very wrong are either genuine or bluffing. She aggravated things with her unawareness of Russ' revealed secrets (in context of DH's theory that the Kiras are unaware of much of the developments). The whole discussion may have influenced Russ being written down in the Death Note, but it's not decisive, since Kira could have actually been aware all along. However, Epig updated his case on this Day to include Russ' "180 on FZ" and his "differently timed voted for her" and this is a case I find myself agreeing with a lot. I also don't understand why FZ. chose to downplay the relevance of Russ' check, in case he was indeed Mogi and got to check her; Mogi's role check accuracy is realistically one of the best the detectives had, the only other 50% procent check/find accuracy having been Matsuda's (who is also dead). I would also note that this aspect wasn't discussed enough by others afterwards (partly out of the regular disregard for Epig's cases or because other discussions and whatnot). But really, going back to her dismissive reaction to Russ' possible check on her and vote in accordance to that, I really can't understand it coming from a fellow detective, even if she was defensive about the whole assumption. In light of this, I've decided to vote for FZ.

FZ. wrote:And I think you should just wait for the end of the month. I tried changing it, and it gave me an hour later, so I went back. I hope I got it right. In any case, I'm never here when the day ends anyway, so it doesn't matter much

Well it says 1:44 GMT (3:44 where I am), so I just need assurance that this is correct.

FZ. wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Will try to finish catching up, but I probably won't have a strong opinion on everyone brought into discussion. Studying FZ.'s and bea's "invitations" to lynch them right now. I think FZ, after considerable heavy defending including a particular emotional outburst, basically said that we'll be very sorry or be proven very wrong for lynching her. Bea self-voted and wants to get lynched. Does anyone feel these two attitudes, in case they're not genuine, could lead to different outcomes or reveals if the lynch would go through? I don't know why, but FZ.'s feels either like genuine civ dejection or baddie bluff, while Bea's feels like it could come from a likely (current) unlynchable.

Also, not sure how to adapt to DST, since I only switch at the end of this month. Can anyone confirm if deadline is 12:44 or 1:44am GMT?

Just to be clear, I never invited anyone to lynch me. I'm saying you shouldn't lynch me.

I'm going to wait 5 more minutes. If no one seriously considers my suspicions on llama, I'll probably go with MM, because if Bea is unlynchable, then what's the point, and I more than that, I think that of the voters who had already voted, I trust those who voted for him more than I do others

Not quite so, but I can also see how it was a closing statement from the previous Day.

FZ. wrote:I actually want people to vote for me. The satisfaction in the "I told you so" would be so much greater than the enjoyment I'm currently experiencing from this game. And is there a contra colour to Sarcastic orange? Because I really need it.

NIght

I don't have a strong lead on Llama. I can empathize with you fighting off hard his case on you or having received the "give me offense not defense" treatment from him, but I also feel he (or anyone else) could easily call your counter-case of him a NO-U. Snowman also NO-U'd him heavily, although he was way more unsubstantiated in doing so. I don't feel voting bea is the right option, either, and am kinda wary of those who immediately reacted with a vote towards her, even if for traditional "a civ would never do that" reasons.

Will try to finish catching up, but I probably won't have a strong opinion on everyone brought into discussion. Studying FZ.'s and bea's "invitations" to lynch them right now. I think FZ, after considerable heavy defending including a particular emotional outburst, basically said that we'll be very sorry or be proven very wrong for lynching her. Bea self-voted and wants to get lynched. Does anyone feel these two attitudes, in case they're not genuine, could lead to different outcomes or reveals if the lynch would go through? I don't know why, but FZ.'s feels either like genuine civ dejection or baddie bluff, while Bea's feels like it could come from a likely (current) unlynchable.

Also, not sure how to adapt to DST, since I only switch at the end of this month. Can anyone confirm if deadline is 12:44 or 1:44am GMT?

What do you make of this lynch's timing, DH? Did Kira plan Russ' death all along and it was simply a coincidence that L also checked up on him?

Also, RIP Russ.

MovingPictures07 wrote:All E's have been revealed.

Huh? Nothing?!

WHAT

I'm reading sudden kill all over this, but that is not compatible with DH's analysis of how Kira kills.

11 new puzzles are definitely not the kind of temptation I would have wished for at 4 o'clock in the morning.

Absolute fark.

Hopefully the last apologetic post from me from now on, but I'm also sorry I missed the vote yesterday. I was out in the city till late in the evening and then had to pack and catch some sleep until my early morning flight. My reward for that (and probably for skipping Mafia, too :P) now is one hell of a cold. I would have supported both an FZ. and Made lynch, probably going with Made based on his last exchange and because I would have had a harder time deliberating on FZ. with all the new content to catch up with; I sort of lost track of her after having my own issues with her influencing a switch from lynching Snowman on D2, then changing her mind on D3 (but she argued the first was part of her usual MO and that afterwards Snowman did enough to make her think she might have been wrong about him).

RIP Zomba. Had some doubts during the first days, but overall you helped with a good lynch and trusted L wholeheartedly, so I think you were an eager detective.

I like the small detail that Sidoh is responsible for secrets being revealed, not MP.

Also, this lynch could mean more puzzle-making on its way... :P

Epignosis wrote:Gotham has taken a rather horrific turn.

Never watched it, due to getting awful reviews.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Ugh, Takada is dead and Misa is still roaming.

RIP Eloh.

"Ugh"

"RIP"

Woo!

Zomberella12 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

FZ. wrote:I find myself agreeing with llama on this. Don't see any different type of kills, just that Ace was the only player almost confirmed civ, so probably the best option for a kill.

As for giving up the note, I know it's probably there on the first page, but I'm short on time and would appreciate the help for when I come back later: What happens if Kira gives up the note? Does he ever get it back or does he just becomes like a Kira supporter? I get that he can't be lynched or something. Is that for the rest of the game, or just once? Would it be a good strategy to give up that note for a Kira?

Don't know if FZ. is still around, but: what did you mean by Aces having been the only player almost confirmed civ? I don't remember anyone saying that about him or anything he did pointing out at that.

It was in L's note to the thread a few days ago.

Please point out, in that case, where L said Ace is "almost confirmed civ".

MovingPictures07 wrote:Another Death Note has not been put in circulation; that was merely for story. Sorry for the confusion.

Thing is, no one was confused in any way by that, except for Russ who decided flavour storylines are now game indicative.

juliets wrote:Rico would you give a quick overview about how L uses percentages in the show? If it was explained earlier it has flown right out of my head.

This has been said by the writer of the manga

Whenever L gives percentages to indicate how much he suspects a person of committing a crime, such as "five percent", in reality he means over 90 percent; Ohba said about L, "The truth is, he's a liar [laughs]".

Also, much of the time, at least in the anime, L stated this "five percent chance of being Kira" only about Light.

I'm going to also go with L's call in the end and vote for Elo. I'm not sure that what L did was an official or allowed outing, because his secrets haven't been revealed and there's not much known about whether L at some point receives more certain results from his checking or what kind of likelihood/percentages is he working with. I'm also not sure I can go with FZ's idea that L actually did a subtle outing on Elo being (a) Kira by saying there's 0% chance she can be - this reminds me that the first thing I asked, when L's first message came about Russ standing at 4% or something like that, was if we should trust this as an actual likelihood or as L telling us it's actually the other way around (like just L in the show did), but at that point nobody seemed to have that in mind or want to treat L's percentange as anything but how they were stated. My only good interpretation of L's message is that he managed to read more into or pick up something about Elo. I myself still cannot find more in her posts beside the three things could have drawn suspicion on her, but maybe L managed better deductions. We'll find out if that's true, obviously.

FZ. wrote:I find myself agreeing with llama on this. Don't see any different type of kills, just that Ace was the only player almost confirmed civ, so probably the best option for a kill.

As for giving up the note, I know it's probably there on the first page, but I'm short on time and would appreciate the help for when I come back later: What happens if Kira gives up the note? Does he ever get it back or does he just becomes like a Kira supporter? I get that he can't be lynched or something. Is that for the rest of the game, or just once? Would it be a good strategy to give up that note for a Kira?

Don't know if FZ. is still around, but: what did you mean by Aces having been the only player almost confirmed civ? I don't remember anyone saying that about him or anything he did pointing out at that.

Russtifinko wrote:And why is nobody talking about the fact that LYNCHING TH PUT ANOTHER DEATH NOTE IN CIRCULATION????

That seems like something people might want to notice. And, since only one type of being has Death Notes (I'll give you a hint - it rhymes with "Hello, Mommy"), that's more evidence that lynching TH again would be a gigantic waste of time.

wat

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Also

@Rico

Writes a player’s name in the Death Note every night

I admit the LC's kill might have fooled me into seeing what I said was a proverbial 40 seconds death sentence. If that's not possible, then yes, your chain of events makes more sense.

What do you make of Light's very first kill being delayed until the beginning of a new full Night, though?

I think Light realized he could specify in his night PM the time of death, and wanted to be cheeky. Maybe making us think at first that his kill failed.

Totally fooled in that case. Yes, I can see the DN itself having special mechanics as the killing tool and Light being aware of this from the start.

got to fly

DharmaHelper wrote:Also

@Rico

Writes a player’s name in the Death Note every night

I admit the LC's kill might have fooled me into seeing what I said was a proverbial 40 seconds death sentence. If that's not possible, then yes, your chain of events makes more sense.

What do you make of Light's very first kill being delayed until the beginning of a new full Night, though?

Ok then.

bea wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Fine by me if DH and others want to intrrpreted this way, but I personally can't believe the Day/Night cycle has been disturbed based on current evidence.

Present a viable alternative and I will consider it.

N2 sudden heart attack and D3 day kill (in anticipation to N3) make more sense to me. Both could have been planned and announced in advance by Kira.

Please lay out how you see this working out from d1 to now for me like dh has. I'm slow. I thiink I've at least made that much abundantly clear this game.

N1 - intentional no kill or no hit
N2 - Kira announces to the Host he wants LC dead as soon as Night starts (proverbial 40 seconds)
N3 - Kira plans and kills SVS during the day
N4 - no hit
N5- Kira plans and kills Acr during the day

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Fine by me if DH and others want to intrrpreted this way, but I personally can't believe the Day/Night cycle has been disturbed based on current evidence.

Present a viable alternative and I will consider it.

N2 sudden heart attack and D3 day kill (in anticipation to N3) make more sense to me. Both could have been planned and announced in advance by Kira.

I don't think that makes any sense though.

agree to disagree then. For me, a new Day still starts a new cycle, we've all been playing it this way. You suggest all except Kira.

Final post from me for now

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:Why not, if I may ask?

Because Light is probably sitting back and playing from the sidelines. You are not.

Who fits that profile, in your opinion?

AceofSpaces
bea
Black Rock
Boomslang
DisgruntledPorcupine
juliets
Made
Matahari
Ricochet
Spacedaisy
zeek

Don't know how much more I can rise to your standards of playing, but I don't see myself having been a sideline player, so I don't fit your profile of Light.

DharmaHelper wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Fine by me if DH and others want to intrrpreted this way, but I personally can't believe the Day/Night cycle has been disturbed based on current evidence.

Present a viable alternative and I will consider it.

N2 sudden heart attack and D3 day kill (in anticipation to N3) make more sense to me. Both could have been planned and announced in advance by Kira.

Turnip Head wrote:Also:

Ricochet wrote:RIP Aces.

Creepy use of smiley face is creepy.

shit. Very sorry about that. Had mobile in one hand, sandwich in another. 4am here

correct one:

Fine by me if DH and others want to intrrpreted this way, but I personally can't believe the Day/Night cycle has been disturbed based on current evidence.

By your logic, we are now Day 5 and have received Night 3's kill.

linki: again, how can we possibly assume that? What info do *you* have on that?

You're gonna really have to explain how do you assume that when the host post is clear - Night 2. He also made a post that "No one was killed by Kira" on Night 1.

DharmaHelper wrote:

juliets wrote:RIP Aces! I really enjoyed playing with you this game and hope you're in the next. I can't understand why you would be the one to be killed.

DH what is the different methodology you are talking about?

I have been monitoring a number of key factors of each kill, in order to profile Kira. The first kill (LC) occured 48 hours and 18 minutes after the night post..The second kill, (SVS) occured 42 hours and 46 minutes after the night post. This third kill occured a mere 24 hours and 7 minutes after the night post. While I had accounted for this in my profile and assumed a mounting time table, the difference is much more than I anticipated and points to another killer.

The first two victims were also likely leaders and case builders. Personalities that would make them difficult to lynch and troublesome for mafia. Typically, Ace just does not fit this profile. He is much more laid back than the previous two victims, not likely to kick up a stink, and definitely not a leader that would amount to any credible threat.

I have other notes, which for the sake of preserving my investigation I will not share.

Didn't you ask me to clarify this?

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Night 2: So Long Con

LONG CON: Well, that was an interesting and illuminating lynch period!

At that moment, Long Con suffered a heart attack, and collapsed to the ground.

S~V~S: What the....??
BLACK ROCK: Kira, you sick bastard!!!!!!!


Long Con has been killed by Kira.

It is still Night 2.

You still have 24 hours to send in your night actions.

LC's kill happened immediately after we lynched BWT and the Night started.

RIP Aces.

No time to address anything else, have a plane to catch.

thellama73 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

thellama73 wrote:No one listens to my sage counsel that the best defense is a good offense.

Still waiting on part 2 of your sage counsel, though, on how to possibly point at a better suspect when you are the most likely, worst looking, most damning suspect of all (especially early in the game, I might add, though not the case here).

You don't expect me to give away all my secrets, do you?

Nope, only to refrain from giving advices to players who can't use them successfully one bit.

FZ. wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:I should also note that I theorize Light passed his death note to Higuchi recently, which explains the lack of the last kill.

Why would Light want to do that?

FZ. wrote:And I'm still waiting for Bea to come in and reply to Boo's accusations and what he does with it.

I had forgotten about that. I'd like to see what goes on there as well.

To become invincible, and give someone else the kill responsibility. People have been theorizing for days on who would kill SVS and LC. Change the killer, change the kills, change the profile.

That is indeed a good theory.

What happens if they give up the kill? Do they only win together? Can one Kira accidentally kill another? What if the Kira targeted one of the other Kiras and that's why there's no kill?
Sorry for all the questions, but this game is a little overwhelming

Light cannot be killed if Misa targets him with her DN.
Misa can be killed by Light, except if for more secrets on that or if they establish BTSC so that Light doesn't target her by accident.
Higuchi cannot be killed until receiving DN.
Mikami can be killed by anyone possessing a DN.