The Syndicate

S~V~S wrote:I think FZ could be bad.

I think Floyd & Luke are nubs and hard to judge by the standards with which we judge each other. And you know me, I pay attention to those i suspect, and not as much to everyone else.

Let me ask you a question. Do you hold the same degree of certainly about FZ that i hold about Bea? Be honest with me here.

Linki, What "tude"? Matt asked you a question you seem unwilling to answer it.

No, I definitely don't hold the same degree of certainty you hold about bea. This is why I'm trying to make clear that I don't have a 'number of days' thing.

Who would answer Matt's question? I disagree with you that it was a 'good' question. It's a question that, in fact, has no good answer, other than for me to claim info. It also starts by presuming that outcomes that are not FZ won't end the game.

My truest answer is 'if we don't lynch FZ today, NO civilians have to die, because we could lynch the last harkonnen and win. On the other hand, if we lynch FZ today, I think at least one civilian has to die, before we win." That would be the truest answer I could give.

But, as I say, this is not me having a bea level of certainty. It's just what I think is going on.

@Matt - well, that certainly makes life easier. My vote today will only be for either floyd or FZ. Lets hope luke isn't the baddie.

Honestly, I'm not sure why I'm getting a 'tude from you when I'm actually (as far as I can see) the only one putting work in in this thread to try and figure it out?

S~V~S wrote:Well then perhaps you should.

Well, what is your own view on FZ, Floyd and luke?

Matt F wrote:As for saving MM, what's the difference between 3 of them trying to save MM and 4 of them trying to save MM? If we know three of them did, what's to say the team didn't decide to go all in because, as you pointed out, "that would be soooooo stupid so there's no way that could've happened."

The difference is between them getting civ cred for lynching floyd, or getting no cred for lynching him because he was a civ. That's a massive difference.

@SVS - Why is this a good question? I'm not going to put a day on 'when I'll lynch FZ'. In a game where things have happened each and every day that make me more confident about things, I'm not ruling out something happening tomorrow that leads me either to rule out FZ, or to make me want to lynch her more. I don't have an answer. All I can do is talk about the evidence I have today, right now, for whether I want to lynch her today. I haven't even isoed her yet.

Well, Matt. Put aside FZ. Who would you vote for, Floyd or Luke?

S~V~S wrote:That's a really good question, tbh.

I disagree. If FZ isn't bad, the fact she has defended all the baddies is irrelevant.

Matt's question amounts to this - "Golden, I'm subtly trying to ask if you have info on FZ". The answer is no. As I said to zebra, I'm not a cop. I'm working on what is in the thread.

Nevertheless, I trust certain things. What if, for example, Sorsha came out tomorrow saying we absolutely should not lynch FZ. Would I still go ahead and vote for FZ? Probably not. I don't know if sorsha is actually an info role, but because Sorsha has been right about a lot, I would trust her (and believe that it might be info).

I have no answer to that question. On any given day I'm going to lynch the person I think is most likely to be Harkonnen. If on one day I think it is FZ, she will be my vote. I still haven't done her iso yet today, so there is more to come yet.

But tell me - do you think it likely that literally all four of the baddie team pile on to floyd, who in this scenario has to be civ, to try to save MM? Doesn't that seem immensely stupid, to you?

@Matt I'm focussed on finding the last Harkonnen. If you think that has to be FZ, then vote your way. The more I read, the more convinced I am that it is unlikely to be FZ. For me, I think it is more likely to be either luke or floyd.

Interestingly, of the three candidates, Luke is the only one zebra called scum in gth reads. TH had a scum read on both floyd and luke, but not FZ. FZ had that odd 'indy' read on TH.

I think it is kind of admirable that FZ is defending Floyd when he is the most viable alternative to an FZ vote, and again speaks well of her affiliation to me.

MacDougall wrote:Floyd as civ would be a new thing. He has played the same lurky odd game in all three games.

He could just as easily have waited to say what it was for a perceived town advantage. If he straight up says that there is an item that disrupts the poisoner he paints a target on his chest right?

In actuality that could be why the scum tried so hard to get him lynched just assuming it was a protective counter to their poisoner.

That's a fair point.

FZ. wrote:

Golden wrote:

MacDougall wrote:Yes you make a valid point.

The most persuasive bit for me is the poison thing. What do you make of that?

The thing is, unlike us, they had to know Sorsha was sitting on some information. I don't know, when I'm bad, which is not the case now, when I recognize a team mate has been caught by solid information, I'd buss him as fast as I can, because this is something that won't go away next day. With Floyd, things could get better as the game progressed. So trying to save MM at the expense of Floyd doesn't really seem logical to me.

Trying to save MM at all doesn't seem logical, but they did.

MacDougall wrote:Yes you make a valid point.

The most persuasive bit for me is the poison thing. What do you make of that?

@Mac - TH and FZ are two different people, both of whom I feel I have a good read on generally. The apparent 'same behaviour' looks bad to me from TH, and good to me from FZ. Because I know their games.

Anyway, I haven't done my FZ iso yet. But just looking at that day two lynch. Really? All four pile on to save MM? When Floyd would have come back civ? I've never seen a baddie team do anything that stupid.

Floyd:

Against

Spent day 1 avoiding questions about what his item (the poison snooper) actually did. Not even vague questions. Direct questions. And he wouldn't even answer them to confirm it does something. The only other person to get it is banana, who isn't around, so we don't know what it does. Suddenly, and literally in his first post after MM died, floyd says that his snooper protects from poisoning. This reads very much to me like he deliberately did not want it out there that there was a poisoner (because they were on the same team). It also makes a LOT of sense to me that a team with a poisoner would target the poison snooper to find out what it is.

Floyd's day one self vote to avoid being on either civilian bandwagon.

Floyd's remarkable certainty on the MM vote (I've never seen him appear this certain of anything in his mafia career - mind you I've never seen him be civ). This post expresses this, when FZ asks how he can call MM's posts baseless compared to his own posts:

TheFloyd73 wrote:Linki: FZ? Seriously? Have a read over his past 15 posts.

The massive bandwagon from his own teammates to lynch him instead of MM. For FZ to be bad, literally every single baddie would have had to jump on the bandwagon to save their own teammate, at the expense of a civilian. This is what I would have to term one of the stupidest moves of all time if true. This favours floyd being bad, rather than FZ, for me.

When he votes for sig he indicates he doesn't think sig is bad. He votes early for TH but reserves his right to change it (if his teamie isn't going down?)

As a poisoner, MM seems important. Floyd's role may have felt less important. Perhaps a sacrifice they were willing to make to up their chances.

in favour

The only thing I find in favour is the fact that he would have to have been hella bussed. It would have to be a cred plan. But I mean, I find this more credible than the idea that all four people would hand themselves to us on a silver platter on day two by trying to save MM. That plan would look even more stupid when they would then have to know Floyd was civ, so it wouldn't even get them cred.

Conclusion

Having read Floyd's iso, I'll be blown away if he isn't the droid we are looking for. The entire thing read like he was on the mafia team from start to finish. I'll still do the rest, but that reads so bad.

When I get a moment, I am going to do an iso on each of FZ, floyd, luke, and also zebra for clues.

MacDougall wrote:I don't buy it. If the scum had a grand plan around making floyd look civ while sacrificing their own players all the power to them but I doubt it.

You might be right. I mean, it's just me guessing essentially, thinking what the most likely outcome is. I get good vibes from FZ. While TH's vote timings and post all felt completely wrong, FZs feel the opposite, to me.

Also, Floyd vote for MM is the most certain thing I've ever seen him to do in mafia. And the timing of it was right in there with sig and MM voting for him.

If it isn't one out of Floyd, Luke and FZ, I'll be surprised. Everyone else doesn't feel like a fit with harkonnen on one level or another. But for me the only thing that points to FZ is her vote record, not her posting.

MacDougall wrote:Huh.

On another topic what is the championships?

Win a game, get an invite to the game of champions 2015, an invite only game for people who, well, were champions in 2015.

I was a pretty key vote at a pretty key time in two of the lynches. In the third, I was the person encouraging everyone (when they were suggesting lynching either me or zebra to lynch sig) that lynching sig would probably be better than lynching zebra.

I'm a great paranoid theory that I'm bad, but I think there is plenty of evidence to demonstrate I'm not.

I'm not sure I agree that, if I was bad, pushing floyd ahead of FZ would be a good idea. Either order would be equally fine. If I was bad, I could have waited on the Floyd thing. I don't want to because I want us to get it right today. TH's votes always stuck out to me as way more poorly (mafia-ly) timed than FZs ones.

Maybe I'm blind, she could have me fooled. I could well be wrong. I don't blame anyone for choosing FZ today.

@FZ - in the TH voters, obviously I know it's not zebra or I, I'm also pretty confident about Eloh, and I did an iso of sorsha yesterday and came back with her asking really pertinent questions to MM and TH before we had lynched any baddies. If she is bad, it's one of the best performances I've seen (and she certainly did a lot to paint her teammates as bad before it seemed needed). Once again, that means we come back to only Floyd... someone who jumped on TH immediately at the start of the day and said he'd 'consider changing it later'

MacDougall wrote:Not that I accused you of protecting FZ but if you were scum what you are doing now makes a lot of sense. Kill off your main foe step 1. Sew some seeds to an unlikely lynch candidate in Floyd that is low hanging fruit due to being new so pressuring him could easily cause him to react poorly. If you can get Floyd lynched then great you have another free day where FZ gets lynched you buy yourself two days. If you are scum you probably feel invincible with no suspicion on you anymore. Bea, lurkers, FZ ... you have a string of easy mislynches to work through. Throwing shade on some others on the way through to set up mislynches later would be smart.

You are the most worrying scum candidate to me right now on account of playing supatown and Zebra now being dead you would be nigh unlynchable so with respect to that I feel the need to keep you in my line of sight.

I wrote that last post just for you, Mac. Think about it.

I'm not scared of you mac. I'm House Atriedes, and I wouldn't have any objection to you using whatever means you had at your disposal to test me to prove it

I tend expect some kind of tactical approach to lynching. If Floyd was lynched instead of sig, how much better would sig AND th look? That's the kind of baddie move I'd be making. TH went to the championships on our behalf... and he spent his last day in the game talking about how terribly he has played. All of these baddies have played a game that (whether intentional or not) certainly makes floyd LOOK civvie - and that is my point.

I'm not sure why you would be eyeing me when there is only one harkonnen left (even acknowledging the concept of a traitor I just brought up). What is exactly your reason for thinking baddie golden would protect FZ and not be happy just to watch her go down?

Also the wifom of both dead MM and sig talking about how they lose all the ties. I think it's would be consistent with MM's sense of humour to talk about what bad luck they had losing the ties if they literally had no horse in the race to win the ties.

S~V~S wrote:That is true; but Dr Yeuh also gave Jessica & Paul supplies and the Dukes signet ring after he died; things that kept them alive. So if he was atraitor, he was an unwilling one.

So I could see him being an either/or kind or role.

I would be more concerned with who is a Harkonnen first, agreed?

Agreed. I didn't really need to say that until after the last Harkonnen is gone, but I just felt like it.

I think Floyd being bad would make TH's votes make a lot more sense in context. Why so overtly try to save two teammates so late? Possibly because a successful outcome would have created civ cred.

My order at the moment would probably be Floyd > FZ > Luke.

Matt F wrote:Don't mind me, Golden, I'm just bein' goofy.

Who are your top three suspects?

At the moment, the three I'm most focussed on are floyd, luke and FZ.

RIP zebra. Sucky time to go.

Banana seems ok to me, because could he really have put that kill in?

Although... this might be a good time to raise something I've been thinking about for a while. An extract from Dune wiki - might not actually mean anything in this game, but should be kept in mind.

"Dr. Wellington Yueh (10082 AG-10191 AG) was a Suk doctor and agent of Baron Vladimir Harkonnen who served House Atreides as the personal physician of Leto Atreides I."

Matt F wrote:Did one of ya all block me? I hope that's the case. If I die, please build a statue in remembrance of me, Golden.

Eh? Do you mean protected you?

I could see it, but I'm also not convinced we should rush in too quickly.

Great to see it going so well. Good job everyone on the TH lynch.

Sorsha wrote:I'll do gun to head.

I just read bloopers posts, I'd like to hear more from her but I'd say she's not bad, atm.

Thats how I felt when I read them too. An iso on ninja is a good thing to do, I think.

Anyway, I have to go preach a sermon now, so no gun to the head for me. But I will say, I'm not going to sleep on Floyd or Luke, I think it's worth checking with epi to ask - will a player who doesn't participate for several days be modkilled?? (Banana), I still think TH is a good choice, though.

FZ. wrote:

Golden wrote:@FZ - my working theory on the vote manip is that multiple powers were at play. For instance, player A targets one person with a vote manip, and Player B targets player A with a power multiplier, which makes their power affect more people.

Another possibility could be that the 'one side' that had so much power was the smuggler, for whom so much power might not be unbalanced.

I feel like I'm ok with it because of who was involved.

I get everything you're saying, but if it's a multiplier, why would it all work on civvies?
Same question for the Smuggler question. Did the multiplier choose the people who had to vote? Was it random? How do you think it works that all voters were civvies?

There is a difference between believing they were forced and thinking they were all civvies.

I don't know how it could work on all civvies - but I'm guessing there are ways it is possible for the person with the role to know if it does, for example it effects people two each side on the role list (and perhaps one of them was dead). This is me spitballing, obviously we don't know how it works for sure. But really I'm not assuming people who had their vote forced are civvies because of that - it just happens to be a good match for people I think are civvies anyway.

@FZ - my working theory on the vote manip is that multiple powers were at play. For instance, player A targets one person with a vote manip, and Player B targets player A with a power multiplier, which makes their power affect more people.

Another possibility could be that the 'one side' that had so much power was the smuggler, for whom so much power might not be unbalanced.

I feel like I'm ok with it because of who was involved.

Luke - be you civvie or baddie, you are just starting to get to grips with the game, which is great to see. I hope you hang in there and keep playing games here.

Turnip Head wrote:Yes, it is truly hilarious how badly I've played this game. I would not even know where to start defending my actions. I would not be surprised if I were unanimously lynched today, and that's what I deserve.

If you are civ - I understand how much it sucks to be in this position. I've been there. I did the iso on Sorsha in part because I was feeling like 'don't just assume everything is this easy'... and it would have been a great ploy if sorsha was bad all along.

But of course - you could feel that particular statement is completely true no matter what affiliation you are.

I just did a reread of sorsha - just to see if everything checked out and she wasn't bussing MM.

Actually I think Sorsha's posting history is very strong - her questioning at the start of night two all the way through to the vote for MM look very sincere and ask pertinent questions without giving anything away. So I'm feeling great about Sorsha after that read.

I did catch this though:

Turnip Head wrote:

Sorsha wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I think it's clear that MacDougall did not have a scumread on Matt to start the game. I also agree that TH is wasting his time looking at Matt for that reason.

My case on Matt has nothing to do with whether or not Mac had a scumread on him.

What do you think of sig and MM? Do you think either or both of them had something to do with BRs death? If you only had the two to choose from for a vote today which one would you vote for?

I don't care to guess who killed BR because I think anyone could have done it. I do not plan to vote for sig. I think the same people trying to find meaning in the BR kill could be the ones who killed her. So.

I'm going to have great difficulty seeing past TH for a vote today. In addition, I have a sermon to write and preach so... voting early, because I don't know just how much time I'll have to be engaged in the thread tomorrow.

I don't think you are correct about Matt F, SVS.

TheFloyd73 wrote:Going with TH for the moment, but they may change.

I'm guessing it probably wont' change.

Epignosis wrote:13. Votes are not changeable.

That kind of felt out of the blue, but I just did an iso.

I wouldn't be a big fan of a ninja vote today. I really didn't like her day one vote, but since then I've felt like I'm seeing civ ninja.

What do you think of TH, SVS?

S~V~S wrote:

Golden wrote:@Matt F, I was thinking through where I stand on each player a bit earlier. Putting together a mental rainbow list. And I realised that bea was floating back up to the higher end of my suspect list as well.

I don't think bea's vote missing is at all unusual for her, though, as a civilian or a baddie, in that she is often busy at the wrong times. But I do think your case is really strong, and I'm willing to consider a bea vote today.
]

I am not.

And hooray for no death

OK SVS. I'm going to trust you on this one. I sense that there is truth in what you are saying. I'm willing to hold off on a bea vote.

@Matt F, I was thinking through where I stand on each player a bit earlier. Putting together a mental rainbow list. And I realised that bea was floating back up to the higher end of my suspect list as well.

I don't think bea's vote missing is at all unusual for her, though, as a civilian or a baddie, in that she is often busy at the wrong times. But I do think your case is really strong, and I'm willing to consider a bea vote today.

PS, bea, a football/pizza storm sounds kind of amazing.

Hey, neat, thanks poll person!

The return of matt f and his oddly specific questions

@Mac - it's not that I want to be unhelpful, but I look at your post and feel like you are asking me to repeat what I've been saying for the last 24 hours. So - this is my attempt to sum it up, and after that if you don't understand what I'm getting at I'm not sure I can say much more. I think there is sufficient thread evidence for me to feel as though Eloh had a role in sig getting four votes yesterday, and I think her specific part of that is not consistent with her being bad with sig.

I think the baddie team probably has a redirector and redirected (person x's ability) to sig.
I think Eloh had some kind of role yesterday. Either she IS person x, or she also targetted person x, and had some impact on what went down. Regardless of whether Eloh is person x or just targetted person x, the impact of Eloh's role was negative for sig, and the baddies would have been able to see that risk. So it just doesn't make logical sense to me that she would be bad.

Add to that, her thread content yesterday was significant and important in me identifying that we should not assume sig to be civilian. Explain to me why it would be so in her interests to keep talking about a redirection role when, from the baddie perspective, it would have been much more helpful for saving sig for the baddies to pretend that sig WAS the intended target of the vote manipulation, and therefore was probably good.

Eloh being bad... just doesn't make sense to me. She would have to be some master busser who was hoping to shed shade on sig for cred if he got lynched, and I just don't think that is Eloh's style at all. In fact I'm certain it isn't.

Without Eloh, I wouldn't have had an inkling sig could be bad.

I'm looking at eloh's posts more than MM's and sigs.

Also, the fact that Sorsha backs me up makes me feel more confident in the read as well.

TH is my number one for today too. I think he has a high chance of being bad. His positioning in both lynches has been far worse than FZ's, in my opinion.

I'm going to do a read back on him and have a look at his various opinions.

I would strongly advise against an Eloh lynch at this stage. I don't think Mac is correct. It was Eloh's conduct yesterday which led me to realise sig could be bad. There is a lot of stuff Eloh said yesterday that seems both unnecessary and actively hurtful to her own team if she was sig's teammate.

Does any one have any reason to think they were the kill target last night?

FZ. wrote:

Golden wrote:I don't think you are my top suspect, you've just gone from 'town read' to more middle of the road.

You know how when you make too many bad decisions, you don't feel like playing? That's where I'm at now. I'll get over it. I doubt I'll be NK, so I'll probably have to defend myself at some point.

I understand completely, FZ!

I don't think you are my top suspect, you've just gone from 'town read' to more middle of the road.

bea wrote:also - Kate would have at least given me a hug for the "I do believe in lawyers" post.

Sorry, my dinner arrived at the door just as I was catching up with it!

a2thezebra wrote:

Golden wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:

Golden wrote:

a2thezebra wrote:I'm saying it is most likely a mixture. I'm saying it's more up in the air than it's being taken for granted as, without biting down on any particular conclusion. As for Golden being a cop, that's a separate conclusion altogether. That is just because his reads and conclusions seem better than his arguments.

Somewhere, a lawyer just twinkled out of existence.

Look at this way; if I'm wrong, consider yourself in the league of dunya in my opinion as far as accurate reads go.

Is that good or bad?

VERY good. Sorry I forgot you're not from the RYM crowd.

I have played a few there, but only with dunya once.

I'll take that as a compliment.