The Syndicate

@TH - I've explained it over and over and over and over again. You just don't like the explanation.

It's basic mathematics.

@Tranq - yes, I could see that as a possibility. If I'm honest, I could also see you in the LoRab spot.

@SVS - I don't know what to say to that. I wasn't trying to veil anything thinly, but I did think you would take from it that I think maybe you are trying to clear your name.

I just think lorab knows dom is a civ.

For me, I think it is easily timmer and TH first from that team... after that, figuring out who else is on the team is a possibility. The dom thing makes sense, but I don't really think it is true.

@tranq - every player needs to be out there. I'm even including thinking you could be one of them, at this point.

As for trickster - I don't think it it necessarily is as straightforward as 'finding out which team they are on'. The person I am suspecting right now for being trickster has even either voted or considered voting trickster. For me, that reinforces that trickster is a good vote... it may be the only way we can figure out that roles affiliation. If I find out that role is civ, it changes the complexion of the game from here significantly.

I can find other ways to double back on the Master Thief.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorsha has voted for an awful lot of civilians lately.

I was going to say the same thing about Golden.

I think I have voted for everyone who has been lynched.

Not quite true - I voted for you one day when you weren't, and I voted Juliet on the Canuck day, but juliet did have more votes, and was actually bad.

I haven't evaluated 'who has been lynching the civilians', but I'm willing to bet your name is right there on the list. Didn't you also vote both Matt and Bass?

I didn't vote Wilgy... although I did start the suspicion on him, but I also advocated holding off another day on the day he was lynched. Those who know me well in this game, might have given some thought as to why that was. That's a good point, actually. I might need to go back and see who ignored that advice on Wilgy.

Let me point out... NOONE has successfully lynched a circle yet, although I am trying hard.

I've never voted for Bass. I've voted for, or tried voting for timmer the past few days.

When timmer was not on the poll, I did vote for Matt once (when Bass edged him) and Dom once.

I found Matt's quest believable, which is why I didn't vote him yesterday.

Well, I also voted timmer on each occasion or tried to.

linki @tranq - that possibility does make sense. Timmer/TH/dom would work for that team.

Tranq wrote:@Golden: How sure are you about Dom? I have him as a possibility for both teams.

For me his odds of being bad went down when circle tried to night kill him. Before that, I would have said he was circle. I see his chance of being witherdeath as smaller.

You know, the more I begin to think on this the more I realise there are actually quite a few possibilities for how I have been thinking some people are civ that clearly, at this stage, are not.

Trickster being on one team and possessing entity being on the other is one thing. Actually, that could still account for a lot.

Matt has been talking about some people knowing what HIS role is. Is there any possibility the trickster could have tricked us about Matt, and be on team circle?

But of this list of people... Lorab, Tranq, SVS, MM, Draconus, Sorsha.... there is at least one and I think now at least one from each team that I can't trust. And that prospect scares me.

I come to this view because even if timmer and TH are circle, they need a third person (I don't know who it could be) and there still needs to be at least one Witherdeath alive.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I was under the belief that Sorsha was on a civilian power bloc. But now, I have a very hard time believing that Sorsha is who I thought she was.

There is too much evidence for me to not believe she is who I think she is, in terms of role. In terms of affiliation - I have only the same that I have with any other person I trust. But I also have that she has been very in sync with my thoughts in this game, which for me has been a positive.

Right now, I think it is fair and appropriate for me to re-evaluate everyone I've trusted. That includes Sorsha. The only person who I feel completely fine not reevaluating at all is splints.

Turnip Head wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorsha has voted for an awful lot of civilians lately.

I was going to say the same thing about Golden.

I think I have voted for everyone who has been lynched.

Not quite true - I voted for you one day when you weren't, and I voted Juliet on the Canuck day, but juliet did have more votes, and was actually bad.

I haven't evaluated 'who has been lynching the civilians', but I'm willing to bet your name is right there on the list. Didn't you also vote both Matt and Bass?

I didn't vote Wilgy... although I did start the suspicion on him, but I also advocated holding off another day on the day he was lynched. Those who know me well in this game, might have given some thought as to why that was. That's a good point, actually. I might need to go back and see who ignored that advice on Wilgy.

Let me point out... NOONE has successfully lynched a circle yet, although I am trying hard.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I voted Master Thief.

The big question here is: are all of these roles still alive? Is that why they are on the poll?

Certainly at least one is not.

I want to know about the trickster.

RIP Matt.

I did not believe in you, and that means that there must be a member of the circle that I can't account for, given timmer is getting himself off the poll.

I wonder, does anyone have an equivalent message like mine for what the Avenging Statue would be doing?

Oh, I assume a matt lynch. Yeah, thats how I feel. I'm quite scared about the prospect of allowing Matt to finish his three days.

@tranq - but LC has basically allowed us to know the pixie is civ, right? I'm relying on that for some of my opinions. Chameleon though... that makes sense, actually. The other thing I think is that the possessing entity might be able to do something similar, I have a theory that role is about appearing to be others and making them appear to be you (from an affiliation perspective eg with LD checks).

@tranq - I think he only needs two. I'm with lorab on that. It's majority rules.

@Lorab - it helps that we lynched so many indys early, but I think I have all 7 accounted for without Typh.

That's why I have him as bad.

And you think it is in our best interests for.... way to leave us hanging!

Tranq wrote:I think all three of you could be bad tbh.

I'm still thinking TH > Matt > Dom atm but i haven't voted yet. I'm willing to consider all options.

Do any of you think Timmer isn't a baddie?
Do you think he's Cabal or Circle?
Assuming he's Circle, who do you think his teammates are? He has to have atleast 2 or 3.
How do you think he managed to disappear from the poll two times in a row?
Thoughts on the Cabal?
Thoughts on the Living Statue?
Thoughts on SVS?
Thoughts on LoRab?

Sorry, I should have answered these sooner... I didn't have time when I woke up and then I forgot they were there.

I'm pretty sure timmer is a baddie, and he must be on a team of at least three. So circle. This is my implication from him being missing from the poll two days in a row. Teammates - TH, Matt, Typhoony (dead) is my best guess. The Matt/Dom fight has me also thinking Dom is a chance, but I don't really think they'd waste a kill on him so I'm not thinking that is likely.

I think the Cabal is also probably three people strong right now (technically two because I think the golem is protecting that team) and I also think perhaps Floyd was not on that team after all (trickster ability). What do you think of that, tranq? Do you think it possible that the trickster made floyd appear to be on the cabal team because you were convinced he was? Another option for me is Luke was the one who wasn't really bad. But, I haven't heard of people being poisoned since he died, so I think he probably really was that role, and I think the trickster doesn't just make their affiliation change, but they look like an entirely different role.

The Living Statue - I think it is sort of out there who this person is now, but I don't want to feed that. I think my thoughts on this can be gathered from my general thoughts on the individual in question.

SVS - trickster. LoRab - I don't think she has me fooled. But I don't feel as certain as I do about splints and sorsha. Actually, tranq, I'd put lorab in a category with you - people I have reason to believe are good, but I don't really have enough information to prove it.

OK, so things haven't happened quite the way I would have hoped they would for Matt so now I'll tell you why I have Matt > TH.

I think Matt is the powerful one here that they are trying to protect, not TH. Maybe both are powerful, I don't know... it may be why Matt is putting the focus on Dom instead of TH.

But what bothers me most of all is this 'quest' that Matt is on, for a number of reasons.

1) It meshes entirely with the message I had previously got, except that the message implies something that is not in the towns interests, and Matt was trying to make out like it was supatown. When I specifically put that message into the thread, it didn't phase Matt at all. There wasn't even a split second where he indicated any amount of doubt that his mission was town focussed.

2) This makes me think that the goal of the team today is to keep Matt alive. Maybe Matt really is on a quest, but I don't trust him that it's civ aligned. Maybe, his team just got the same message that I got, and they are using it because it will sound plausible to anyone else who knows about quests to stay still for three days.

What I really wanted in this day phase, to make me feel better about Matt, was some sign from him that he was thinking, and not just sticking to an entrenched position. Thinking about 'could I have been misled about this quest'. Thinking about 'what might other people be getting at'. Instead, the vibe I got was not 'I'm doing what is in the best interests of the civs' but 'my survival is paramount'.

Even to the extent that I'm beginning to think that the fight with Dom could be a sign of Dom and Matt being on the same team, trying to make Dom look bad so that Matt can survive longer term. Today has felt like a gambit to secure Matt's survival.

I agree with Tranq, in that I'm coming out of this side of the day feeling like all these guys could be bad... wouldn't it be funny if the four guys we voted to be on the poll are an entire team

But right now, Matt is the one I'm most worried about, so I'm voting there.

Matt wrote:It means don't listen to anything I've said about the Spirit Oracle. Like you're on a jury, and you have to dismiss that evidence.

OK, so unlike me you didn't check with the host before posting stuff

Nevertheless, even putting all your spirit oracle stuff aside...

Do you still feel positive that remaining in your current square is the right move for the town?

What does that mean, matt?

Matt wrote:Let me ask you a question, Golden, do you consider specific coordinates to be "vague instructions" and if so, how do you come to that conclusion? Still waiting for Dom to answer that one

No, I don't. I wanted to ask more about that (for instance - what specific co-ordinate), but I think it would be against the rules for you to answer.

I know Dom's role, because a person who is now dead told me. But the problem is not that he survived. It's who tried to kill him.

The reason I thought maybe he was the spirit oracle is all your stuff about giving instructions and stuff... I'm having a lot of trouble untangling what I think the pair of you are talking about. You were talking about dom giving you instructions, you see why I was getting confused?

Tranq wrote:

Golden wrote:I know of a space that gets you off the poll to, but it requires some people be asked... which actually meshes with timmer starting on the poll then vanishing. Has anyone been asked if they agree to timmer being off the poll? I know I haven't.

I've been to that square early in the game. The number of people needed to make that work is actually worrying me quite a bit.

I'm thinking TH > Matt > Dom atm. You?

Right now, Matt > TH > Dom. Dom's failed nk has me thinking he isn't bad, and I'd still definitely take either Matt or TH over Dom.

I'll explain why I have Matt ahead at a later stage. Right now, I don't want to dictate behaviour in the specific area I find suspicious, if you get what I mean. I want to see how things play out.

Matt - I have published the message in full. The message did not come from a particular square, not the swamp or anywhere else on the map. It came absent of any specific square, do you get what I mean? It wasn't telling the person who had it to stay in the square they found it on, because that isn't how they obtained it.

The thing that always puzzled me about that message I had was 'which square'. It said 'stay in this square'... but the message didn't come from a specific square. Could it be any square?

It makes a lot of sense to me that these two things are two halves of the same puzzle.

I know of a space that gets you off the poll to, but it requires some people be asked... which actually meshes with timmer starting on the poll then vanishing. Has anyone been asked if they agree to timmer being off the poll? I know I haven't.

@matt - is dom the spirit oracle?

I'm finding this spat really confusing. It's quite clear that something has happened that most of us aren't privy to.

@Dom - are you the spirit oracle?

Matt wrote:The more you speak, the more bad I think you are. Golden - how sure are you on Lorab because I know you called her good in a previous post.

Of those people within my 'list of people I don't think are bad', LoRab would be in a middle category for me...

Not someone who I have so many external factors to back up my trust that I can't doubt it.
Also not someone who I think 'There were signs I shouldn't have trusted her that I ignored'.

There are others I trust more, and others I trust less.

Matt wrote:Oh, just reread, must've been confused. I thought the square was the swamp, but apparently peeps find the location of a swamp.

Anyway, I don't have any freakin' clue as to what any of that is about. It has nothing to do with me.

Golden, this message you got about the Swamp, is it North, East, South, or West on the map? Cuz Paradise Meadows is South and that's where I be.

The message I got doesn't say you need to be at the swamp. It just says that after your quest is complete, the three players will know where the swamp is. I don't think the two need to be the same thing.

I see nothing in your spirit oracle message that suggests that even you should rely on the fact or feel confident in the idea that your quest will work out in favour of the civvies. If anything, I think it more likely that the spirit oracle was talking about the same quest. Why do you feel so confident your quest will benefit the civs? Is there something more?

Matt wrote:I'm pretty sure the hosts are havin' a great time watchin' me quest!!

I'm sure this is true as a host, there is nothing more fun that seeing your players ball to the best of their ability. I don't think you have been personal... the other day when you were going after me it didn't feel personal. I felt like I was being personal, though, even though I knew it was only because I had had a bad day and your suspicion of me came out of the blue at exactly the wrong time for me.

Matt wrote:Golden - I have done something unimaginable to me before yesterday, which was to mark you down as civvie before I was 100% sure. I'm trying to trust you, and in return, trying to gain your trust.

I implore you to vote elsewhere then me today if you want a civvie win. And since I have you marked as civvie, then I'm sure that's exactly what you want.

Yes, it is completely what I want.

But Matt, in star wars you were imploring to the point that if votes were changeable, I actually would have changed. So I now know that is in your bag of tricks.

So, here is the thing... I have this message, I've had it for quite some time.

"If you stay on this square for three consecutive nights you become the avatar of maligna. You may not use your night power twice while on this square. Three random players will be activated at this point on a quest win condition. They gain anonymous btsc, and if all three players are on the same square, they can kill you and fulfil a win condition. They will know the location of the Swamp of Everlasting Night."

This is a quest involving staying on the same square for three days, and to me it does not sound awesome.

Draconus wrote:

Draconus wrote:I've heard of Paradise Meadows. I don't know what it does, but I have no reason to not believe Matt about that part. The question is, is Matt bad? If he is, then we don't want him to achieve "awesomeness."

@Golden - Do you have an idea of what TH's role is? I have my own suspicion here, but I'm hesitant about it.

Thinking back on this question, I should have rephrased it. Do you suspect TH enough to vote for him today?

For me I think what I'm getting to the bottom of today is more, what do I think about Matt. I suspect TH enough to vote him, but I suspect Matt more.

If Matt is able to convince me to let him be, TH would be my second option. I don't think Dom is a great option.

linki @matt - does knowing your role equate to he should know your affiliation?

Turnip Head wrote:

Long Con wrote:Timmer has been removed from the poll!

Golden wrote:TH, what are you able to tell me about why you survived?

I'll answer your question, but I'd like you to answer mine. Matt's not the only one who's been questing I was poisoned on night 1 but after assembling a few pieces of an item I was able to construct an apparatus that could keep me safe. A separate item from the marketplace allowed me to search for the cure to my poison, and after 30 fucking days I finally found it yesterday.

My question for you Golden is why you felt "more or less 100% sure" that Bass was bad, but you did not have those same odds for Matt being bad. You later said that in both cases you were playing the mathematical odds through some process of elimination. Why did that process lead you to different percentages for Matt and Bass being bad? What conclusions are you making, and why are you making them?

The conclusion I drew was that I did not think any other player was Cabal.

Draconus wrote:I've heard of Paradise Meadows. I don't know what it does, but I have no reason to not believe Matt about that part. The question is, is Matt bad? If he is, then we don't want him to achieve "awesomeness."

@Golden - Do you have an idea of what TH's role is? I have my own suspicion here, but I'm hesitant about it.

No firm idea. A relatively small pool of options, though.

I don't really understand what Dom is getting at.

OK, Matt, so not a formal quest within the game, but more a personal quest to use information that you obtained on the map?

I'm going to hear Matt out. I wouldn't I say I trust him... his quest might be just as beneficial to him no matter his affiliation. But I don't think he is lying about having a quest - do you have reason to think that?

I've seen evidence that being put on a quest is something that could happen in this game. I haven't had one myself.

Golden wrote:Matt - in respect of your grand quest - do the words 'avatar of maligna' mean anything to you?

Matt ^^

I have never been to or heard of paradise meadows. I see no reason for you to be lying about the fact of the quest, though.

For me the point is not the spirit of the game. I don't think talking about what one comes across on the map is against the spirit of the game. For me the point is - everyone knows that:

Sharing stuff openly in the thread comes with inherent risk of being targetted for death
Sharing stuff openly in the thread can unwittingly benefit the baddies

And even then, I've still shared a lot openly. I'm just aware of the risks.

I've withheld a lot from the thread that I've only told people who I have good reasons to trust. For me, that is the most effective way of communicating info in this game.

Matt - in respect of your grand quest - do the words 'avatar of maligna' mean anything to you?

Timmer being off the poll is insanely frustrating.

I'm also not voting dom today, so my vote will either be Matt or TH.

TH, what are you able to tell me about why you survived?
Matt, what are you able to tell me about your grand quest?

hey @Matt - I've talked about heaps of what I've learned on the map - since long before you were. When I did exactly that yesterday, you accused me of cheating. So please don't take the moral high ground on that.

linki @ lorab - I'd agree that the spirit oracle sounds kind of like something the trickster might create. It could also be a legit square on the map, though. Has anyone else come across the spirit oracle? (For me - no I haven't, I haven't heard of it).

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I will vote timmer.

Hosts: if a player's name is not on the lynch poll, can they still be lynched via shenanigans?

Are you planning shenanigans?

Voted timmer. Not a hard choice for me. Glad to see he isn't off the poll again.

linki @ lorab - agree. Of the four names, the only one I don't support a lynch of is Dom. Given the names who ended up on the poll, I'm not sure a whole lot of new discussion will come out.

She seemed second in command of golden's mislynch the civs posse?

What the hell are you talking about?

I think I've been pretty clear that Sorsha is second in command of my mislynch the civs posse.

Also, because SVS has been pushing so hard to 'put a dent in the circle' - and I get that from a civ perspective because I have been feeling the same way. On the surface it feels like we nearly have the cabal done and the circle we haven't lynched one.

But then imagine this possibility - circle have had two people killed by nightkill (I think it's possible - Typh I think would be one. Zebra or HB could be another). In the mean time, we have the trickster, who has made someone NOT on the cabal look like cabal, and they could still have two people alive AND the golem protecting one of them.

And I can see SVS pushing this kind of logic when she feels close to a win. It's exactly what I'd expect from baddie SVS if she was the trickster and still actually had numbers in the game.

It makes me nervous.

Matt wrote:

Sorsha wrote:I wouldn't kill you even if you weren't eliminated. It would have to be MM at this point. If he was gone then SVS. I think we'll be rid of Witherdeath if that were to happen.

I'm hesitant on SVS because I always think she's bad and she did this in Dune too where she suspected me non-stop even though I was civvie. However, being wrong on me is one thing, but putting together the idea that TH and I are partners.... woo boy! Either she is seriously misguided or a baddie bad bad.

If I had one kill, I don't know who would be. But I'm thinking MM too, only because I've been after him all game and his sudden vote on me just cuz it was the cool thing to do does not make me thing he's good.

Golden...

I'm going to mark you down as civvie. I don't ever do this unless I'm 100% sure (and yes, by saying 100%, I mean 100%), however, I think someone would've called you out when you said all that about striving to put together a civ win and all the btsc you've had, etc etc etc. So eff it.

In that case, knowing you already suspect me, Timmer, and TH...out of those you trust, who do you think would be the Judas?

SVS. I already went back and isoed her last night. The hints of her trying to stop juliets lynch are there.

At least, it doesn't necessarily imply it.

But I admit... if it is possible for one...

Matt wrote:Hello Tranq. I'm Matt. Why did you vote for me?

Linki - Golden, what are you talking about dude? Like seriously. I never said I was tricking you. I'm saying if you think ONE person tricked you because Bass ended up being good, I'm saying ANOTHER tricked you as well since I am ALSO good.

I didn't trick anyone. I don't even know where you got that from.

Oh, I get you. I'm not sure that follows, but I can see why you would think it would from what I have said. The thing is... I could be wrong that you, TH and timmer are all circle, and one of you could be cabal, but even if you are civilian, you still aren't a member of the cabal. I thought I had whittled it down to bass as the only person who could be the last member of the cabal. So it wasn't only about him being good. Like I say, I may have gotten cocky about you, TH and timmer all being one team... or it could be someone I think is civilian. Am I making sense?

You being civilian doesn't imply I've been tricked by a second person - just that I'm drawing wrong conclusions about the connections between you, timmer and TH.

Matt wrote:Tranq and MM - Can you both tell me why I received your vote last day phase? Thank you.

A lot of you seem to be discussing "inside" things that are going over my head. Apparently this must be part of the exclusion SVS was talking about earlier.

I'll say this, Golden, if you think only one person has tricked you because of Bass being good, well bud, I'm going to add 2 people tricking you to that list because I'm not bad, either. And I only say "tricking" assuming you are civvie.

I have two days off, like I said, I'll be rereading the thread from thanksgiving as well as going over some ISOs.

Golden - Do you have SVS marked as civvie and if so, why?

@Matt - you clearly still haven't figured out my definition of tricking. The only way you are tricking me is if you are the trickster. It's kind of funny that you say you are 'tricking me into thinking you are bad' though, lol.

I did have SVS marked as a civvie, but like I say... someone is tricking me. SVS is an option.

It's also not 'I got vibes from bass he was bad'.

It was 'there is no mathematical way Bass could be good'. And yet he was. Bass was not the one tricking me there. It's someone I believe to be civ doing the tricking.

Do you understand? Because if you can't get to grips with that, we are never going to be talking on the same level.

I feel best about splints right now. That is because I believe there is abundant objective evidence of what role she is, and abundant objective evidence that role is on the side of civ. I don't see how I could be fooled on that front. Sorsha is a close second. It's not impossible I could be fooled, but there are lots of reasons I feel confident.

Beyond that, I guess there is a chance that anyone else I think is civ could have me fooled. And I'm coming to the view that one of them must be the trickster.

@Sorsha - you know, I did not want to see that theory. But I'm beginning to think you might be right.

@Matt - here is what really intrigues me...

If you are not Dr Dre (which you've claimed not to be a few times) then who is? That post makes them alive, and yet I have no room on my spreadsheet for them to be alive if they are not you...

Matt wrote:So in that case, those roles were occupied by those who voted Bass?

Hmmm. MM voted me.

Again, I'm obvi tired. Be back tomorrow, got two days off, let's rock this bitch town! BOOM

No, because at least one of the people mentioned did not vote for bass. You jump to a lot of assumptions. I do, however, think it probable that all of those roles are still alive.

And no, no "RIP Bass". I don't feel the need to RIP people just because I was wrong, and I never have. Bass didn't even come in and vote you to save himself, and he could have. He could have done anything to prove his civvieness. I had good reason to believe he was responsible for the death of Bullz. Yeah, I was wrong, but it's hardly that which got Bass lynched. I was the last one on. My thought when I saw that lynch come up was 'damn, I should have stuck with Matt'.

My second thought is... that if I'm wrong about bass, what else am I wrong about. It is possible that there are only three baddies left and I'm still on the right track. But I thought Bass death was going to end an entire team. Now, I think, I have placed my trust in someone incorrectly. The question is who.

You have to understand Matt - at some point this game becomes numbers. If I have 9 people I think are good and 4 that I don't know about, I don't need to feel sorry about lynching the four... even if one comes back civ. Each time the lynch goes for one of those 4, I'm confident I'm one step closer to getting the civs the win. Do you understand this? It's maths. It's the odds. I still have no reason to believe you are good.

I'm not going to get involved in your semantics. I can't actually believe that you choose to follow up TH's 'more or less' thing. It's just ridiculous. Everyone knows what that phrase means. Plus, I explained exactly what I meant very clearly. For your benefit...

Golden wrote:It means that one always has to recognise there is a margin of error in a game with role secrets/map etc, but that I am as sure as it is possible for me to be.

I'll admit, I may also have gotten slightly cocky in pegging you, TH and timmer as all on one team.

As for the TH thing - look, I think you were right he was genuinely trying to get to the bottom of it. My snippiness towards him came from the fact I feel like he has taken opportunities to throw shade my way over all the last few days. But when I understood what he was getting at, I answered. When people aren't real direct with me, I assume they have an agenda.

OK, so...

TH was not lynched

And I do not know where the end of the Cabal is hiding. Is it possible that timmer, TH and Matt are not all on the same team.

This is a very interesting lynch situation. I wonder if bass shows in the next 8 minutes.