The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm game to push for the distant item, based on the assumption that working harder to get there will reap a reward (not guaranteed). It'd also be easier to ensure that item falls into the right hands. The added risk sounds fun.

I don't object to the alternative though if that's the consensus preference.

I'm wrong. I just double checked. There's a portal that would allow us to get all five on the trot either way.

I'm pretty sure this works, unless I've missed something.

Just, whatever people do, follow me where you can (but it does take me time to check the correct direction each day) but definitely DON'T GO IN THE EXACT OPPOSITE COMPASS DIRECTION TO WHAT WE WENT THE DAY BEFORE.

I think we have two map choices.

One is to go to a place that we probably won't get to otherwise (because it's out of the way) but it probably means the following day is itemless. The other is to hit four new items in a row (which we could also do after that one day gap) but essentially never get that other one item.

I have no information on what items are where or anything like that, from my perspective it's pure navigation and a numbers game. Has anyone claimed the second and third items? I wonder if they help.

The first place is North West (I believe North East to be a typo, since we shouldn't be able to go North East). The second place is South West, which is the same place that we would have arrived in if we had gone West yesterday.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:One thing about Elohcin that would really be nice:

Please drop in for at least one more post so you can either corroborate or not Golden's N1 claim. Did you target Fredwood?

I'm really interested in this as well, because my instinct is that Eloh would not have targeted Fredwood but instead someone she knows (unless her ability was used by a baddie teammate, I suppose), so my current theory is an ability that moved both her and I from you to fred. Which would actually make sense as a busdrive, except that marmot wasn't watching.

Sorry, missed in it my attempt to decipher Straw's rainbow list.

Jay, do strawhenge interactions please, if you have time.

When I get a moment at work (which is more likely to be in a few hours than now), I'll refresh my rainbow.

OK, I may as well say my thought on Quin's entry now.

It seems to me unlikely that Quin genuinely thinks that nutellas is an every day cop, kills nutella, and then proclaims that he thought nutella was an every day cop. I guess Jay's response was, effectively, the wifom - that I'm saying what I'm saying now. But my immediate thought when Quin said 'I thought nutella was an every day cop' was 'motive' - and if a motive is that transparent, it just seems unlikely that he would be so open about it.

Add to that, this quote is ridiculous. And blatant. If it comes from a baddie it is ballsy.

Quin wrote:I would personally recommend you just move on from this conversation, though.

These things look town to me.

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:This is Jay after he can't post for 24 hours 'give me answers now or I will flip!'

I have thoughts on Quin's entry today but I want to see what others have to say first.

Will I like your thoughts on my entry today?

This is Jay after he can't post for 24 hours 'give me answers now or I will flip!'

I have thoughts on Quin's entry today but I want to see what others have to say first.

Quin wrote:I'll make this a bit more blatant for you if you aren't satisfied, 3J. Give the word.

Pineapple

Quin wrote:Question.

Why am I supposed to vote a maybe-copped person by a player I didn't trust over someone I'd been reading as bad and arguing against the past two days?

Question

Why did you copy my question format?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:I'll also say that the reason I didn't join her on the marmot wagon at the time was because I didn't entirely trust her at the time. I did consider it though.

Why didn't you trust her?

Don't remember.

You suspected nutella might have information on Marmot, suggested you might move your vote accordingly but didn't, because you were wary of nutella for reasons you don't remember. Instead you tried to lynch the easiest target available via the counterwagon to the potentially information-exposed (in your mind) bad guy.

Vote Quin

Question.

Would a baddie nightkill nutella and then immediately say 'I thought she'd be an every night cop'?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:As it turns out, I'm a bit vindicated because INH wasn't town. He wasn't trying to catch scum. He didn't have the town's best interest at heart.

But he wasn't mafia.

I think that's it in a nutshell. Correct behaviour identification, incorrect motive assignment.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:INH was self-aligned, and his interests were purely his own. It wasn't the best lynch, it wasn't the worst lynch. Most importantly, in the eyes of the Hive team, he was not one of theirs. In that vein it can be treated as a mislynch, particularly during the day prior to INH revealing himself as an LMS independent role. The votes that preceded that claim:

Golden
speedchuck
JOH
Fredwood

I would appreciate if the four of you would at least briefly state or restate what motivated your INH votes when you placed them.

Dizzy and Quin voted for INH after his claim. It is more difficult to ascertain ulterior motives there as INH provided an obvious motive. I will still each of you though: what made you feel that the vote was still worth making?

I felt like he wasn't hunting at all. His case on the map-makers felt artificial as he boxed himself into a perspective on info. Beyond that, all he did was a case on dizzy that didn't seem great and meant he wasn't on the marmot vote, and literally nothing else. This is in stark contrast to what I am used to seeing from town inh - a guy who gives lots of opinions and isn't afraid to make them and stick on them.

I stuck on him because he claimed LMS, which is inherently not town-aligned (although, as it happened, he didn't exactly turn out to be LMS, and it looks like he can still win).

Quin wrote:This flip makes me want to reassess things. I thought nutella was a plain cop.

She is exactly what she claimed to be.

RIP nutella and well played. I think you left us in a much better position.

I'm sticking.

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My face when Soneji's vote is pointless

I could CFD Soneji. Scotty's the other option, but I'm not an asshole.

I heard that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It's well known among Mafiologists that JJJ hates no lynches.

Is a tie a no lynch?

@nutella - sorry for not replying sooner. I'm not sure what to make of inh's defence of marmot. He doesn't fit in any conventional mould that I can think of, so I find him hard to predict at the best of times.

Why I don't like him is his lack of contribution, which isn't like the town inh I'm used to.

No, marmot is a busdriver! He can't redirect me! And if he targeted Fred I would have seen him!

this conversation is hilarious. I think everyone except Jay gets it.

I feel like fred is sheeping my posts

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I've had some similar issues with Quin as JOH. I think Quin appears more authentic between the two at face value, though faking authenticity may be his best Mafia trait.

I did not play Mad Max and don't know baddie Quin. Tell me more.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Golden wrote:But it doesn't paint her as a misdirecting role! Bus driver is possible, but otherwise it's me she would target! I don't like that logic for why she isn't bad.

I might just not follow that whole dialogue. I missed a portion of the day's chatter. Is this what happened:

You watched me.

You received a result: Fredwood was targeted by you and Elohcin (after sprityo realized his error).

This would seem to indicate that I was somehow switched with Fredwood, and if Elohcin was the only person to target him other than you then she'd have to be the one screwing with the targets. You targeted Fred with a watch, and she targeted Fred with a switch. She'd have also targeted me. As the watcher you'd have the unique ability to see that happen where a tracker like me would not.

If I follow.

I don't think it has to indicate a 'switch' at all. Sure, you and fred could have been targeted by busdriver Eloh, but all it needs indicate is that I was targeted by a redirector.

speedchuck wrote:

Golden wrote: 2) Why have I been thinking Quin is town? Are there good reasons to townread him?

No idea on your question #1.

With #2:
I don't feel like Quin has been trying to avoid attention.
I don't feel like Quin has been inconsistent.
I don't feel like Quin has been picking reads based on what is beneficial or convenient for him.
I don't feel like Quin has been trying to lead, so my fears about him bringing up opposing views are lessened.
I don't feel like Quin has been saying things that don't make sense. He just follows different logic than I would.

I don't know. I disagree with Quin on lots of things he says, but I haven't gotten a scum feeling from him. It could be that he's just that good, or that I suck.

I like this answer a lot.

But it doesn't paint her as a misdirecting role! Bus driver is possible, but otherwise it's me she would target! I don't like that logic for why she isn't bad.

Oh, 2) Why have I been thinking Quin is town? Are there good reasons to townread him?

A couple of other questions for people generally:

1) Marmot claimed to read eloh's meta and say she is more likely engaged when bad. I don't recall when eloh was bad, or how engaged she was. The only time I remember seeing particularly engaged eloh is in smaller games (which she acknowledges she finds easier to keep up in), and I recall her doing it as town. Does anyone have any insight into whether this meta read from marmot could have been real or not?

Two possibilities: a) marmot moves things away from a teamie, or b) he tries to get cred when she comes back town.

2) I forgot the second one. It will come back to me later.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Golden, you've been asking for help with the JOH case.

Talk about Sloonei's work.

It seems to me to be primarily based on the read hopping around, which isn't something I find inherently bad. Normally I find baddies are likely to preserve their reads (especially on teammates) - especially baddies as experienced as I believe Jack is. I might be more inclined to see this kind of read hopping as bad if it ended with him lynching a civ who he's previously town read, than not lynching a teammate.

There was one thing in there which concerned me a little:

sloonei wrote:He likes Golden's pro-Dizzy analysis, but only uses it to affirm his town read on Golden and later keeps Dizzy yellow, near the bottom of his rainbow

Jack and I had a good working relationship last game, and I feel like we've been on the same page this game. It could be that Jack is intentionally pocketing me.

speedchuck wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:

speedchuck wrote:Fred, we had a claim of a redirected watcher night one. By definition, a redirecting role usually hits the roles it redirects to.
The watcher, after redirected, only saw Eloh. Thus, Eloh is probably redirector.

Granted, we may not trust the watcher (Golden), or clusterfuck rules might apply, but it's a pretty good bet that Eloh is redirector. Scum wouldn't have two of them, probably. Thus, Eloh is prob town.

Redirector is usually anti-town role though? I won't clear Eloh based on these loose assumptions. The setup is ??? at this point. What reason would a town!Eloh not following the thread have to riderect Golden to Fred. That's just really random.

Answering your own question.

Also, I've played a town bus driver before. It can be a protective role.

Golden, busdrivers (for example) visit both target a and b. Then a watcher visiting target a would go to target b, then see the busdriver there.

Though, fair regarding the CF game. Could be something else entirely.

Yes, sorry. She could be a busdriver. I'm talking about if she was a straight misdirector. I think it's a big leap to make to presume Eloh is town and a busdriver simply because I saw her target fred.

I also think Eloh (knowing her) is unlikely to start by targeting people she doesn't know, so I'm wondering if she was also targeting Jay and misdirected to Fred.

Put it this way, I'm not giving eloh any kind of alignment read based on the fact I saw her target fred, and I think it would be awfully unwise to do it.

nutella wrote:I'm pretty confused at the sudden influx of INH votes. I'm still pretty convinced that his behavior was not that of a marmot teammate. I could be wrong but I thought there was a pretty good reason we all backed off from him.

What's the good reason?

speedchuck wrote:Fred, we had a claim of a redirected watcher night one. By definition, a redirecting role usually hits the roles it redirects to.
The watcher, after redirected, only saw Eloh. Thus, Eloh is probably redirector.

Granted, we may not trust the watcher (Golden), or clusterfuck rules might apply, but it's a pretty good bet that Eloh is redirector. Scum wouldn't have two of them, probably. Thus, Eloh is prob town.

I'm not sure why eloh would be the redirector. Wouldn't she have targeted me? I still don't follow this.

speedchuck wrote:But INH is a better vote, based on yesterday's actions and flip alone. People seem to be ignoring him, which is weird.

Just from externally (as in, not there in the moment) inh comes out looking worst to me in the marmot vote.

Thanks nut and speed for giving me a little more context to the jack vote. It seems the primary beef against him is that he is blendy and that his opinions don't feel like they have held the weight of conviction behind them. Is that fair?

I'm trying to find the case on Jack.

I found a post from sloonei setting out marmot/jack interactions and saying he could see a jack vote. He referenced Jay's case on Jack. I can't find Jay's case, if it exists. I can find Jay talking about what he perceives to be unnatural progressions, and perhaps it has something to do with EoD 2.

Can anyone voting for Jack tell me, in their own words, why they think he is worth a vote?

I would still be willing to vote for INH, in fact I nearly did earlier except it felt irrelevant.

In fact, I will

vote insertnamehere

juliets wrote:

Quin wrote:Vote JOH

Because shapes.

Ok, I was trying not to place the 5th vote but since its been placed I am voting now. I'm not sure I understand what the hammer vote is.

Vote JOH

If someone gets half of all possible votes (rounded up) then the day immediately ends and we have to stop talking.

Dyslexicon wrote:

Golden wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Sometimes I feel that Golden acts like I'm confirmed town.

Not sure exactly what you're seeing or how you mean this, but I tend to act like everyone is town. Even when I suspect someone on one hand, I don't want to ignore their perspective on things on the other, in case I'm wrong. I think I'm much better at figuring out who is town than who is bad, so this also aids my hunting approach.

It's not for how you interact with me (actually thinking about it, I don't think we've interacted much? Hi.), but more so in your analysis of votes and wagons and how people are treating me, it seems like you assume that I'm town. Both with the reactions to my fakeslip and in regards to the wagon on me. I don't know what this means, it's just a feeling I had and I wrote it out.

Just saying - what you said last time was it was about analysis of votes and wagons. Now I've done my best to address that, and you are shifting the goalposts.

I don't like this. Especially the way you just replied to my post in a way that felt as though you were accusing me of misrepresenting your suspicion.

Dyslexicon wrote:This post pings me just a tiny bit. Why not look into it yourself? You seem like a person who would rather trust yourself than others in a game (?). I see that you're busy though, so could just be that.

I am 20 pages behind and haven't had a chance to do more than pop in, look at a few short posts, and make responses for the last 5 days and counting.

Dyslexicon wrote:What I felt was that you were treating me as a stronger town read than what you were saying explicitly.

You didn't say that at the time. What do you feel was my explicit read of you?

Hi guys

I'm sorry, I feel really guilty that I still haven't caught up. I've been reading bits in my spare time but I'm still not even up to the marmot lynch yet. I have kept up mostly with this phase (but haven't read things like cases or connection posts in detail). The wife's family finally go home today and so I should have a good chance to catch up, hopefully fully, tonight when the phase is locked.

In the mean time, I'd like to make a meaningful vote, and (from my perspective) I feel like that's either an out of date one based on my opinions before marmot's lynch, or one that trusts.

I see, in particular, what feels like polar opposite views on scotty and speedchuck. Of those, speed is the one I most suspect, because I go back to day one where I discovered he criticised my non-vote of dizzy and then I discovered he had actually read the full thread and had seen my explanation. It felt ok if speed was just posting in the moment and catching up, but I was actually expecting him to get to my explanation and say 'oh, that makes sense', only to discover when I read back clearly that the opposite was true - he knew my explanation before calling it suspicious. Add that to the fact he clipped my post and I still feel that wasn't entirely kosher. Sloonei seems heavily defensive of speed though, I don't yet understand that either.

I also still feel quite suspicious of inh and I see nutella is bandying JoH around, and I trust nutella (ps nutella, I don't think that cop check was wasted at all. I couldn't shake residual Jay suspicion and it's nice to have that out of mind) but I don't understand what the case is and I get good vibes from jack.

I know it's a lot to ask and if people don't help me, I understand. But it would really help to have a succinct understanding of the case against, and defenses of, various players on the block.

I also really want to reconstruct what happened at the end of the marmot vote, but that's going to take a bit of work.

Sloonei wrote:This seems to suggest Elohcin is a misdirector. I do not expect the Hive to have multiple misdirecting roles on their team.

Possibly, or else someone misdirected me.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:Got a response from sprit. He made a mistake, eloh and I targeted Fred. Still not marmot though.

For the sake of clarity, could you reiterate everything you've told us about your night action so far?

Watched jay night 1, the response was originally 'noone targeted fredwood', it's now 'golden and eloh targeted fredwood'.

Got a response from sprit. He made a mistake, eloh and I targeted Fred. Still not marmot though.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:

Golden wrote:

Long Con wrote:

Golden wrote:There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?

I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.

If you didn't get MM, he didn't busdrive Fred with JJJ. You were misdirected by someone targeting you or JJJ was nexused.

*crumbles up rainbow list take three*

Glad I'm not time traveling anymore.

Well done! I didn't even think of that. That makes my question to sprit moot.

"As the Busdriver, you may target two targets, actions affecting each targets are switched"

OK, I've checked with sprit, but looking at this again, I can see how I might be still seen as 'targeting jay' as it's just my action that is switched and not my target. That makes sense.

Long Con wrote:

Golden wrote:There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?

I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.

There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

Quin wrote:Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.

Hmm, I think I'll chose not to answer that one.

I believe that there is no room for doubt, however.

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:

Quin wrote:Something to throw out there is that Nacho might not have been the intended kill given marmots role flip.

I recall Golden mentioning his actual Night 1 target wasn't who he had initially targeted. Was that person Nacho?

No. I targeted Jay and ended up targeting Fredwood.

Would you agree with me if I said that this indicates that they're very likely not both bad? I don't see a reason marmot would target two of his teammates. One, maybe.

Full confession, I only just went back and read marmot's role now to be able to answer this (I was sneaking in a moment just to see how he flipped yesterday while with the wife's family). So I haven't dwelt on it, but that makes sense to me. Assuming that it was marmot that redirected me.

Sloonei wrote:insertnamehere provided a really interesting point as evidence against Dyslexicon at the end of the day. But I took interest in it not as evidence against Dyslexicon at all. Where INH sees Dyslexicon buddying with Golden, I see grounds for suspicion of Golden.

I'm surprised to hear inh took this as a reason for suspicion of Dizzy. If taken at face value, I should be the one who gets suspected. But it shouldn't be taken at face value - people should make their own assessment of my content instead of relying on a second hand perspective.

Dizzy was suggesting I knew he's town when doing my rainbow list and, I'm not sure at what specific times other than that. To be fair, I understood how Dizzy got to that view. I was strongly critical of most if not all of the people who voted for him on day one (there may have been some exceptions, but I can't remember now). But if you look at what I actually said, it will mesh with what my mindset actually was, which is that I had a problem with people who continued to suspect Dizzy for his "slip" because for me there was incontrovertible proof that the slip was not a real slip. The two are completely different mindsets but in the end can appear quite similar in effect.

Put another way, dizzy looked like an easy mark for ongoing suspicion and I wasn't afraid to say it. And I don't think Dizzy is used to the extent that I'm willing to defend town reads yet.

Quin wrote:Something to throw out there is that Nacho might not have been the intended kill given marmots role flip.

I recall Golden mentioning his actual Night 1 target wasn't who he had initially targeted. Was that person Nacho?

No. I targeted Jay and ended up targeting Fredwood.