The Syndicate

Hey guys. I'll probably be behind for a while (maybe this whole phase) but after that I should be back up with the play. In the meantime, anything that people can offer about insight into the end of phase would be helpful and appreciated. From my brief glance it's difficult to follow, but it looked as though it was a close thing between marmot, dizzy, and sloonei?

Also, rip silver lantern. I enjoyed playing with you and I hope you stick around for some more.

Good work getting the marmot guys! Back in range but won't have time to properly catch up until tomorrow.

Didn't see your iso, haven't read the thread.

Just popping in to say that's it from me, see you next phase. Let's get a scum!

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:Lc is gone. Damn. Who else is here?

I'm cooking, but hello. Talk to me, fellow bogan.

Hi quin. You haven't looked as town today. Are you keeping up?

After spending 5 hours in this thread this morning, yeah, I'd say I'm pretty caught up.

What's your beef?

No beef I still think you are town just yesterday you were top read today I don't remember you.

Hi, I'm Quin.

Quin is friend not food.

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:Lc is gone. Damn. Who else is here?

I'm cooking, but hello. Talk to me, fellow bogan.

Hi quin. You haven't looked as town today. Are you keeping up?

After spending 5 hours in this thread this morning, yeah, I'd say I'm pretty caught up.

What's your beef?

No beef I still think you are town just yesterday you were top read today I don't remember you.

Quin wrote:I want Sloonei to say more about how I should be familiar with info-dumping setups.

Are you?

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:Lc is gone. Damn. Who else is here?

I'm cooking, but hello. Talk to me, fellow bogan.

Hi quin. You haven't looked as town today. Are you keeping up?

Scotty wrote:

Golden wrote:Where is lc? He was here.

Hey, you went all epi on me, but I was the only kiwi at the twble lol all my wife's family are here it's so Aussie I need a Canadian or two. Scotty you count as a Canadian today you're there.

What are you acting?

Yeah man I've been acting for years.

Also I get paid to act

No I mean what

Lc is gone. Damn. Who else is here?

Where is lc? He was here.

Hey, you went all epi on me, but I was the only kiwi at the twble lol all my wife's family are here it's so Aussie I need a Canadian or two. Scotty you count as a Canadian today you're there.

What are you acting?

You too scotty. You and lc. Reads! What about inh and other people?

Lc I see you lurking and posting in the thread. Get in here birthday boy. I want your reads.

I may be slightly drunk. I nearly called juliets a guy in the other thread.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Responses in marmalade.

how can you be so glib about murder!



Hang on, marmalade is made of marmots, right?

Dyslexicon wrote:

Golden wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Sometimes I feel that Golden acts like I'm confirmed town.

Not sure exactly what you're seeing or how you mean this, but I tend to act like everyone is town. Even when I suspect someone on one hand, I don't want to ignore their perspective on things on the other, in case I'm wrong. I think I'm much better at figuring out who is town than who is bad, so this also aids my hunting approach.

It's not for how you interact with me (actually thinking about it, I don't think we've interacted much? Hi.), but more so in your analysis of votes and wagons and how people are treating me, it seems like you assume that I'm town. Both with the reactions to my fakeslip and in regards to the wagon on me. I don't know what this means, it's just a feeling I had and I wrote it out.

Fair enough. From my perspective, it's not that you're town, it's just that the fakeslip is terrible logic for why you are bad (as became clear when you explained it and shared the link), and I don't have a lot of patience with the ongoing suspicion of the slip after that point when it seems patently incorrect to me.

Having said that, I do town read you, and I am in the habit of defending people and acting high and mighty, which is probably not the most flattering side of my personality.

OK, its time I need to make a vote, so:

vote insertnamehere

If Eloh is lynched, so be it. The most persuasive reason I have against is she is an attractive vig target, and based on the flavour text around the Wilgy death I can see there being a vig in the game, so I'm willing to give that a chance to happen instead of wasting a lynch on someone who has no content to read.

INH, on the other hand, I'm used to him having strong views and declaring them, and I'm not seeing that. What's more, I don't feel as though he's engaged with criticisms, or where he has he's been simply dismissive, and I don't like the feel it gives me.

Dyslexicon wrote:Sometimes I feel that Golden acts like I'm confirmed town.

Not sure exactly what you're seeing or how you mean this, but I tend to act like everyone is town. Even when I suspect someone on one hand, I don't want to ignore their perspective on things on the other, in case I'm wrong. I think I'm much better at figuring out who is town than who is bad, so this also aids my hunting approach.

Quin wrote:If people stop paying attention to me, I'll die.

Infoclaim

Hey, inh. Do you have any reads you'd like to share?

Quin wrote:

Fredwood wrote:I guess that's not helpful but I'm really confused by the vote.

Also should I hammer with at 9:59:59 I was going to refrain from voting because of the drama, but since it seems to be a mad dash just put a vote on anybody, not voting seems counter productive.

Golden, you mentioned wanting to look at people who considered throwing the hammer down on sig without actually doing so. What are your thoughts here?

Fred is actually a good example of what I mean. Dizzy was saying he wanted the day to end so he could go to bed, I find it more likely a civilian would have indulged him without caring what it looked like, than a mafia who might be worried about looking bad.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:Am I correct to assume that your information is why you asked me what you did?

I'm not answering that either.

If it's not then 'I have information' had no business in your response.

You don't know what has business in my response. We're done here.

Does this exchange with Quin change your opinion on his affiliation in any way?

Quin wrote:Why are we assuming Nacho was the mafia kill?

Flavour text.

Alternatively, there he is.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Where the hell is LC?

Having a birthday, I presume.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I have very little time left this phase. I have no idea what kind of time constraints I'll be dealing with tomorrow. If anyone has any last requests for me, get 'em in now.

Excluding your top suspects, who is the person you would iso right now if you had time?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:@Golden

That might be a good indicator that the kill wasn't redirected, since if it was that'd imply the presence of two redirecting roles. I have no idea how sprityo might design a setup; typically I think redundancies are less likely than an arrangement of unique role functions.

Scum Player X kills Whoever, redirected to Nacho
Golden targets Someone, redirected to Someone Else

It's hard to say though, since redirecting roles can take a lot of different shapes. Target swaps, source swaps, mirroring, etc. Very speculative.

It's a clusterfuck. The only comparable game I can think of was RYM87, and I remember seeing double ups and jack of all trades and stuff there. I don't want to suggest we theorise based on the idea that it was redirected, I just wanted to see if you speculated on mechanical doubts, basically. You didn't, and I think that's actually a good look - I didn't know I'd think that in advance, but I do, because I think it demonstrates a mindset that you weren't considering the possibility.

I do agree with it.

But you didn't hit on the real reason that I asked, which in some ways might be in your favour, since I think you'd be considering it publicly if you were bad and it was truly what happened...

The person I chose to target last night is not the person where my target ended up. Somewhere along the way I was redirected. I was wondering the extent to which you might take into account redirection in responding.

Damn, it was silver lantern. Sorry!

Jay, how much weight do you think I should give to Nacho's death, in reading you?

speedchuck wrote:Where did I star wars reference? I am trying to find it.

You said 'don't get cocky, kid', which I assumed was a Han Solo reference. Was I wrong?

I'm going Southeast.

And also I missed inh - I'm used to him being more active and peddling his views as town. I don't know what he is like as bad, but I find him noticeably missing this game after his early posts.

Wow, I should have just put the names in colour. That's hideous.

quin - I've liked Quin since the moment he noticed Dizzy's slip and I think he has done more besides which looks genuinely hunty.
Jack - I get vibes very similar to Unfortunate Events, where although he was technically indy he leaned town all game
nutella - Oozes town

sloonei - I've liked his early stuff. He's not afraid to provide reads even when he's just starting the thread, and I like this a lot. It also doesn't hurt that I liked Sorsha's early responses to Jay
dizzy - his reaction to how people took his fakeslip, and subsequent hunting, both came across as townie to me.

A big pile of yellow here

soneji - The soneji/silver argument kind of passed me by, and I feel like I need to read it back. I've had no real interaction with soneji this game either, and I can't remember his viewpoint on anything.
Silver - Same goes for silver as soneji, although in this case I think it's the number of new people that I'm finding challenging. Part of it is that I know I need to read that early discussion back.
LC - I hated his early dizzy stuff, it's objectively scummy. I also feel like it's par for the course LC, who often looks terrible for stuff like this then comes back town. It usually takes me two or three cycles to get a firm read on LC, but I feel like he's more likely on the upswing than the downswing.
speedchuck - Of all the newbies, speedchuck is the closest to going down the list. His responses to why I pinged him were good on the first read, but when I realised that he had already read my full explanation for why I didn't vote when he raised it (I didn't want to push a bandwagon vote to potential hammer range, especially before doing my own research), it bothers me a bit. I don't really know why speedchuck would see it as the civilian thing to do to rush in on a vote even after knowing my explanation. But, I can't quite tell to what extent this is culture. (I also appreciate his Star Wars reference)
scotty - He's been busy and I have no read. However, I'd rather not vote scotty today (for reasons - not infodumpy reasons though).
DF - How do you solve a problem like DF
fred - fred's banter feels fred, based on interactions in other places like signups and elimination game. It's disarmingly charming, but he doesn't get a town read for being himself.
straw - how to take his dizzy stuff. A civilian pushing a boulder up a metal ramp in the rain, or a baddie looking busy to an end he knew was unlikely to come back to bite? I haven't played with Strawhenge in a while, but I perceive him differently in this game. I usually get a strong town vibe from him, this time I don't yet. I'm giving it time.

inh
jay - I feel like I see a lot of evidence of Jay half-assing his viewpoints and not thinking them through or balancing them, which is what I normally see from him. A point in his favour is that I find his disappointment at Nacho's death genuine
Eloh - It's not the vote, it's the fact that she had to read enough of the thread to know dizzy only had a one vote lead over sig (as at sprit's most recent tally... it was actually tied at the time she voted), and yet she described it as 'following the people'. Town Eloh has trouble keeping up, but my memory is that she also tends to be forthright about it and asks for help/brief catch up posts from others, which was absent here.
marmot - he's been scarce across the board (not just in this game) but I don't understand much of his mindset in this game yet. Reminds me a little of Dune.

speedchuck wrote:

Golden wrote:sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.

"Is this guy alive so that we can kill him?"

Yeah, I'll get your requested reads down soon. Already did Marmot. Don't want to lynch him yet.

I mean, apologies for asking dumb questions to closed setup clusterfuck experts. I just don't know what is on the table and what isn't.

Hey, Jack. As I'm doing the reads, I realise I don't have much of one on silver. Do you have any meta-based views?

I have to have a vote that can work as my final vote done in the next eight hours, because there's no guarantee I'll be able to get back (and an absolute guarantee I won't be able to be current with the thread) for at least the rest of the phase after that point.

So, to this end, while I do a bit more of a detailed reads list, I'd really like as many people as possible to give me gth reads or, preferably, a short precis of why they think each of the following people is a good or not good choice for a vote. As things stand right now, these are the people I have any level of active suspicion on.

Jay
Eloh
Marmot
inh

(No, I'm not looking to go with 'most popular vote', but I am already having trouble keeping up with everything due to my limited time, and this will help me make sure I have in the open points in favour and against these choices).

Also @Jay - I saw you said we don't know wilgy is dead, but it looks like he is dead from OP. In any event, because of the way polling works during the day, sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Golden wrote:I get good vibes from jack.

I'd like to hear more about that.

He reads the same as the guy I came to trust in unfortunate events. His interactions with me have felt like a genuine attempt to figure me out.

Sloonei wrote:Golden I want to know all about the reads you have in this game right now please.

I'll do a full reads list when I get to work.

speedchuck wrote:An idea, or a question, really:
JOH, JJJ, Strawhenge, and Golden: Who is most likely to be scum out of the other three in this group?
You're the ones that have been debating/disputing a bit, so your opinions probably matter to me.

Jay most, straw second most. I get good vibes from jack.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:JOH:

I don't interpret Nacho's reception of my POE reads to be a joke at all. Indeed he is accustomed to playing in an environment where that kind of methodology is very typical. I think he and I were on a similar wavelength in that regard. I didn't only want to present his suspects, I wanted to present a larger framework for his theory of the game. I think that's more likely to have driven his being killed.

Where you're correct is that Nacho did not state a confident scum read on you; I don't believe he stated one at all. It was his mindset of POE that I was working with, not his specific declared suspects. You were highlighted because of the overlap with my assessment of the sig votes. Based upon those two angles combined I see reason to suspect you, and I grant still that it's speculative work. I intend to do more.

Golden:

I didn't realize Nacho played in Monkey Island, so that's an important detail that changes a lot of what I had been thinking. However, this might help you to understand where my mind was at: do you believe I intentionally omitted that? I certainly didn't. And regarding the notion of a contradiction in my assessment of kill meta: I said it depends on the person; it also depends on the circumstance. What I was describing was a circumstance that'd be likely to influence the mindset of a vocal Syndicate regular on the mafia team.

One more point that I think you'll be more likely to resonate with than most: I would never kill Nacho on Night 1 in this game. I was really looking forward to playing with him, because in our only other game together (the MU hydra game) our GJJ hydra was vig-shot on N1. That's why I groaned to see him get offed so early in this one. He plays a lot like I do and I wanted to see more this time.

I agree you didn't omit intentionally, and I also agree this pushes your needle back towards town for me.

Quin, you reminded me of something I found interesting at the time. Why did no one put down the hammer on sig?

It would have been easy to justify given dizzy was essentially asking someone to. I feel like this could be noteworthy. Eg, did anyone express suspicion of sig but hold back from the hammer?

A couple of instincts at play. The first is that a civilian would have been more likely willing to drop the hammer from an optics perspective, I think, because a mafia would be more wary of standing out. Does this make sense? People with more hammer experience than I, what seems likely?

You know, I went looking for that post myself and I can't find it. To the extent that I wonder if it was a pm conversation with llama. Gah!

Whatever, it's just the truth. Yes, it's self serving if I'm bad, but frankly it's self serving full stop. When people accuse me of doing something dumb that I would never do, I like to point it out. In part it was also because i wanted to get from people the mafia motive for what they found suspicious.

Trying to keep up here and there when I get a mo, sorry for less posting but it's probably going to last this whole phase and I should hopefully be back to normal posting levels thereafter.

Some quick Notes. Nacho was in his third game here, he was town in monkey island. Not sure if that shifts jays analysis at all, but I still see jay saying things that I don't like. There is a real cognitive dissonance in his posts about nachos kill. On one hand, he reads into the unlikeliness of syndicate regulars to be largely responsible, and is willing to analyse on that level, but then he rejects jacks assertion that there is a pattern to early kills on the syndicate, and says it really depends who the mafia are. I don't see how you can analyse based on a pattern but reject another.

I actually agree with both jay and jack. I think there are patterns of night one kills, and I think they've both articulated things that seem likely and common. I think jacks observation is worthwhile because I'd guess that more of the baddies are people nacho had less interaction or reads on that the opposite, on balance. (Not that I think nk analysis is in any way reliable because, how do you pick from whatever pool you are left with?)

@sloon, self-meta analysis is something I do a lot. I'm not usually great at pointing to examples, but in this case I know I've posted the thing about how I don't lie about stupid stuff completely out of a game - it's in some thread in the drawing board about general mafia strategy. Sorry I can't link from phone but I remember specifically talking to llama about it. It's not an attempt at wifom, it's just a fact. Inh and I haven't got off to a great start in our mafia career at understanding each other - it feels like he always suspects me from the off for things that I will literally never do as any affiliation. It's helpful long term for me to help him understand me.

And frankly, I think if you look you will find tons of games (certainly as civ... I don't know if I also do it as bad) where I do meta self-analysis, because I get suspected and even day one lynched a lot when town for really 'not what golden looks like when bad' reasons.

Dyslexicon wrote:Sig could have voted me though, or another counter wagon. Although that would've looked scum as hell.

Actually this only serves to emphasise the disparity between his words and the actual level of lynch threat he felt.

He also said something about his vote for me, I forget his specific words, but they indicated that he intended to read up and then make a serious vote, which he proceeded not to do.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Does anyone out there have a reason to oppose one of the following lynches:

sig
Elohcin
Sorsha/replacement
DrWilgy

I don't think the suspicion of Sorsha is warranted (even at the time I was saying I thought her responses were fair), and I particularly don't think we should lynch that spot when sloonei can come in to it. He can be judged on his own merits.

I don't oppose any of the others.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I thought the day ended later. I'm back though.

Do you mean earlier?