The Syndicate

Also, well survived SVS!

Hey look, canuck is on the poll

fingersplints wrote:I feel comfortable with my dfaraday vote and that suspicion still. With the threat of recruitment in the air it's hard to feel comfortable about anyone, but I still feel pretty ok about Sloonei, and SVS. I don't know how Golden reached his process of elimination, but I know it is wrong as far as I am concerned. Not saying that makes him bad but it does make me question his motives. He still is around my more trusted side but less then the other two I mentioned.

It's just the possible options available. I really do believe it is wrong as far as you are concerned, but I'm just trying not to rule you out because I 'think' you are good.

I don't think we should go after DF tomorrow. But hey, I guess that can wait until tomorrow.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:I think that is more likely than gumshoe or devin. Also reinforces that B & C is not the silencer, and that the phantom is.

I suppose JJJ and I are also on the same baddie team then?

This post makes no sense at all.

Ninja, which team do you think splints is on? If she is bad, I think she is on team two, which means she could wait a day for real discussion.

I think that is more likely than gumshoe or devin. Also reinforces that B & C is not the silencer, and that the phantom is.

Sloonei wrote:It does not appear that anyone was silenced today. Unless it was gumshoe or devin, but

JJ

I voted MM.

Phantom plot summary:

Opera singer Christine triumphs at the gala on the night of the old managers' retirement. Her old childhood friend, Raoul, hears her sing and recalls his love for Christine. At this time, there are rumors of a phantom living at the Opera and he makes himself known to the managers through letters and malevolent acts. Some time after the gala, the Paris Opera performs Faust, with the prima donna Carlotta playing the lead, against the Phantom's wishes. During the performance, Carlotta loses her voice and the grand chandelier plummets into the audience.

Definitely think the phantom is the silencer...

I can't see anything that backs up that he would have two lives, though.

G-Man clearly played the game as though he was going down from the moment he subbed in, and I think his team played it as such. I've not taken the votes for G-Man into account because I don't think they are meaningful.

MM, I think, is clearly not on team two. But honestly, all of his baddie hunting reinforces that he isn't on team two. It always felt to me as though he was expending more effort trying to sort out what was up with team 2 than team one. He's been so focussed on missing kills and unknown forces... even night stuff.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:My day today is a write off. The poll end time is 45 minutes before a deadline I've been working towards for the last several weeks, and I am unlikely to have spare time before then.

I was hoping for something more clear cut. It's not clear cut right now. This is what I don't like about changeable votes... I really can't control how people will move over the hours that I'm not here. Hopefully I'll find time to pop in again later.

In the mean time, I'm personally feeling very firm about DF being my preference.

If you have time, I would really appreciate some input on metalmarsh. I know you've said that you're more inclined to go with DF than MM today, but I'm a bit unclear on why that is the case. I will do everything in my power to ensure that one of the two of them is lynched today, but at the moment I am not sure which I prefer.

If MM is lynched, you won't see me complaining. MM says he will survive a lynch, so in the interests of reducing the number of total kills left on the board if DF and MM were the final two baddies, I think lynching DF first would be more advisable. Just my opinion.

What do you make of Spacedaisy's vote change?

I trust Daisy, do not think she is bad, and think her reason for changing her vote is genuine.

]but do you agree with it? Not the vote itself, but her reasons for changing.

I think you and SVS are both civilian and both genuinely find MM to be bad - so no, I don't have the same concern she does.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:My day today is a write off. The poll end time is 45 minutes before a deadline I've been working towards for the last several weeks, and I am unlikely to have spare time before then.

I was hoping for something more clear cut. It's not clear cut right now. This is what I don't like about changeable votes... I really can't control how people will move over the hours that I'm not here. Hopefully I'll find time to pop in again later.

In the mean time, I'm personally feeling very firm about DF being my preference.

If you have time, I would really appreciate some input on metalmarsh. I know you've said that you're more inclined to go with DF than MM today, but I'm a bit unclear on why that is the case. I will do everything in my power to ensure that one of the two of them is lynched today, but at the moment I am not sure which I prefer.

If MM is lynched, you won't see me complaining. MM says he will survive a lynch, so in the interests of reducing the number of total kills left on the board if DF and MM were the final two baddies, I think lynching DF first would be more advisable. Just my opinion.

What do you make of Spacedaisy's vote change?

I trust Daisy, do not think she is bad, and think her reason for changing her vote is genuine.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:My day today is a write off. The poll end time is 45 minutes before a deadline I've been working towards for the last several weeks, and I am unlikely to have spare time before then.

I was hoping for something more clear cut. It's not clear cut right now. This is what I don't like about changeable votes... I really can't control how people will move over the hours that I'm not here. Hopefully I'll find time to pop in again later.

In the mean time, I'm personally feeling very firm about DF being my preference.

If you have time, I would really appreciate some input on metalmarsh. I know you've said that you're more inclined to go with DF than MM today, but I'm a bit unclear on why that is the case. I will do everything in my power to ensure that one of the two of them is lynched today, but at the moment I am not sure which I prefer.

If MM is lynched, you won't see me complaining. MM says he will survive a lynch, so in the interests of reducing the number of total kills left on the board if DF and MM were the final two baddies, I think lynching DF first would be more advisable. Just my opinion.

S~V~S wrote:

Golden wrote:My day today is a write off. The poll end time is 45 minutes before a deadline I've been working towards for the last several weeks, and I am unlikely to have spare time before then.

I was hoping for something more clear cut. It's not clear cut right now. This is what I don't like about changeable votes... I really can't control how people will move over the hours that I'm not here. Hopefully I'll find time to pop in again later.

In the mean time, I'm personally feeling very firm about DF being my preference.

Why do you think you should be controlling how people vote?

That's not the point... the point is that with unchangeable votes, when people vote before you, you can control where your vote is relative to theirs.

My day today is a write off. The poll end time is 45 minutes before a deadline I've been working towards for the last several weeks, and I am unlikely to have spare time before then.

I was hoping for something more clear cut. It's not clear cut right now. This is what I don't like about changeable votes... I really can't control how people will move over the hours that I'm not here. Hopefully I'll find time to pop in again later.

In the mean time, I'm personally feeling very firm about DF being my preference.

Grey, or purple? You just want it both ways.

Those two are on different teams.

Sometimes the obvious is the obvious because it's true. Honestly, in this game I think the mafia's best move might have been killing off some of the inactives. But I wouldn't have - it's easy to say in hindsight.

My opinion on MM is that I have no reason to rule him out as possible mafia, but that I think he is less likely to be bad than DF. Also, I think that he role hinted, but it's not a difficult role hint to test. I'd still choose to lynch DF first.

S~V~S wrote:I mean this whole thing is circumstantial, based on a gossip post, pretty much. And vague roles with no powers listed. I guess i am just not seeing this in terms of black & white as much as you are, Golden.

I don't have a problem with that, SVS. I get where you are coming from. I understand why it's not black and white. I just think there is enough context to what has happened in the game for me to feel comfortable another recruit is very unlikely (for instance - team 1 starting with 4 mafia, team 2 with three, the recruit ability creating balance).

But mostly, it's just because I have a very specific world view about how to approach this game at this point. It's not just ninja I'm excluding from suspicion - its people like you and daisy as well - and the reason I'm doing it is because I am certain those people can't be phantom or Bonnie & Clyde and I'm more interesting in catching those two first and then seeing if there are still baddies left.

SVS, I think this probably an agree to disagree in terms of whether it would be role hinting, but putting that aside I would note that there is pretty decent evidence that there isn't another recruit out there.

We know they were recruited by LC, who died after only three nights and could recruit on odd nights only - giving him exactly two opportunities. He also could only recruit three specific roles. I calculate the odds of him successfully hitting would be 0.08%. Add to that, we had specific evidence in the night post of LC recruiting BR (the two hooded figures shaking hands on night three).

S~V~S wrote:Using a power behind the scenes and role claiming are not the same.

I think no-one has ever suggested ninja has role claimed though.

But I do think she has used a power behind the scenes in a way that has me thinking she is civ.

S~V~S wrote:Looking back, I am intrigued by the people backing Ninja up, and implying anyone who does not get on the hayride with them has to be bad.

I do not think anyone implied that anyone who thought otherwise 'has to be bad'. And circumstances have moved on several days since that point anyway, to the point that now I just think anyone not 'getting on the hayride' is simply choosing not to believe the obvious truth.

I see no reason not to believe someone who was primed for lynch wouldn't use their role to save themselves. If someone has the civilian ability to stop a lynch, they frequently use it on themselves - and frequently earn town cred through doing so. What's the difference?

Sloonei wrote:I think the singer should be obvious at this point.

I think that was MM's point.

fingersplints wrote:Golden, I vote as late as I can every single game (I feel like a broken record as I know I have said this before), but have needed to especially in this one where I have been under considerable suspicion for days. I'm not sure how anyone can fault me for holding my vote to possibly save myself.

I can't, really. I can't honestly mesh your posts so well with you being bad. Like I say, I'm working on process of elimination. I wouldn't choose to lynch you where there are viable alternatives for who is bad.

Night 8 kill options:

Civvie ninja.
Event kill (West Wide Story PM had one explanation for this, but it doesn't fit the other facts)
Wildhorn kill with less flavour.
Independent (I think thats very unlikely)

I'm inclined to Occam's razor, myself, but I acknowledge there are other options.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Looking back, fingersplints had multiple posts throughout Night 4, the night that Team Wildhorn missed there first kill.

On the other hand, DFaraday did not have any posts Night 4.

JJ wouldn't be a bad kill from the perspective of DF.

I don't feel the need for a consensus because I had B & C narrowed down to JJ and splints and now one is dead.

I'm pretty sure its splints.

Like, really

Phantom: DF or MM
B & C: splints

I'd call it 95% sure.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:

Sloonei wrote:When did the insanifier stop being a thing? Are we assuming that was Jekyll & Hyde?

Given we know that role, it isn't. Probably Cats (ie G-Man). After all, Dom probably considers that musical to be nonsense

Is it unlikely that the role was only partially revealed to us?
This is not a major point, but

I think it is reasonably unlikely, but worth asking.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:I believe it's the phantom doing the silencing. He 'silences' people in the audience. But really it's just a stab in the dark based on theme. I was also targetted by the silencer and jekyll on the same night, so B & C could be a guess.

You were? I asked before and you said you weren't.

If I did I misunderstood the question. It was day four, the day LC was lynched. I do remember saying that I didn't think it was necessarily fact that they were working together, and that it wasn't the same role (I had specifically clarified that).

Sloonei wrote:When did the insanifier stop being a thing? Are we assuming that was Jekyll & Hyde?

Given we know that role, it isn't. Probably Cats (ie G-Man). After all, Dom probably considers that musical to be nonsense

I believe it's the phantom doing the silencing. He 'silences' people in the audience. But really it's just a stab in the dark based on theme. I was also targetted by the silencer and jekyll on the same night, so B & C could be a guess.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:Put it this way - give me any other name and I'll tell you why it isn't them.

The only other person I feel can fit at this stage is MM, so it's just a matter of whether or not anyone finds his role hint believable.

For the sake of discussion, why not share the reasons why it's not everyone else?

Well, I mostly just did a second ago...

Golden wrote:I think MM made a roleclaim yesterday and I'm taking it under advisement.

SVS, Devin, Daisy, Gumshoe were all absent at a time that three out of the possible four remaining baddies were definitely active. Only a maximum of one of these four can be bad.

I know Sloonei, Ninja and golden are good.

I'm still really down to a list of DF, splints and MM, I can't see any need to lynch off that, and I can't see any reason the civs shouldn't win from here really. if MM is honest about his role claim, then I wouldn't be surprised if DF is the phantom (kill tonight, first priority) and splints is bonnie & Clyde, and thats all that we have left to do to win.

So speaketh my spreadsheet.

Add to that, I think I have previously done analysis in the thread as to why I think that, if DF is bad, he is most likely team webber, and analysis of why I think that, if splints is bad, she is most likely team wildhorn.

And to be expressly clear, the 'one baddie' I think the four absentees can be is Andrew Lloyd Webber, and I think we can figure out if this role is alive or not by lynching the phantom, which is why my focus has been there.

@DF - I know my role
I have reason to believe I know Ninja's role and affiliation
Sloonei was the subject of a night kill attempt by each mafia team.

Put it this way - give me any other name and I'll tell you why it isn't them.

The only other person I feel can fit at this stage is MM, so it's just a matter of whether or not anyone finds his role hint believable.

Sloonei wrote:I'd like hear why you think Faraday is Phantom, golden, if it's something you can elaborate on.

I agree with what you have had to say about niju's role.

Process of elimination.

Sloonei wrote:With regards to Ninja: I was losing my mind sitting on the sidelines and watching everyone not talk about her. When I came back I wanted nothing more than to seize the opportunity to thrust her name back in the discussion. Now that I've done that I can say that she's no longer my top suspect, and I don't think there's any doubt that Golden is wrong about her role. I do not think that completely clears her and am still far from clearing her name, but I'm coming down a little bit, at least. I'm still going to consider voting for her today if I'm not dead.

I'm not sure if you are saying you think I'm wrong or right about Ninja's role, the way you've worded it.

Bye JJ - I will say at this point that although I didn't particularly want to piss you off, I did actually buy MM's case on you. But I thought you might be Bonnie & Clyde. Since I think thats who killed you, I guess I' wrong about that. Lets hope you were Webber.

@sloonei - you now have the same two suspects as me, although I'd do them in the opposite order.

I think MM made a roleclaim yesterday and I'm taking it under advisement.

I don't really have any specific questions to ask of you because at this stage I'm just in 'ruling out the baddies' mode.

linki @ MM - I believe it is literally impossible for daisy to be on wildhorn.
I'll be honest, from my perspective:

SVS, Devin, Daisy, Gumshoe were all absent at a time that three out of the possible four remaining baddies were definitely active. Only a maximum of one of these four can be bad.

I know Sloonei, Ninja and golden are good.

I'm still really down to a list of DF, splints and MM, I can't see any need to lynch off that, and I can't see any reason the civs shouldn't win from here really. if MM is honest about his role claim, then I wouldn't be surprised if DF is the phantom (kill tonight, first priority) and splints is bonnie & Clyde, and thats all that we have left to do to win.

So speaketh my spreadsheet.

Metalmarsh89 wrote: What is to stop a pair (assuming there are two left) of fingersplints and Jay being the last two members of Team Webber? Or you and I? Or you and Spacedaisy? Or fingersplints and Gumshoe? Or DF and Jay?

Nothing. What do all those teams have in common?

One of fingersplints, DF and you is on them all.

Before your approach to me raising this yesterday, I had it very firmly pegged as DF and it still could well be. I've just read back the roles and I can see perhaps where you are coming from as well, so...

Can you see this, though:

If you are civilian, you should be comfortable with me pursuing this theory, provided I lynch splints and DF before you, because you would likely be able to see I'm right.
If you are bad, though, you'd attack the theory at its heart, since you'd know it would catch you eventually.

I do think you have finally understood where I'm coming from. The second member of the team could be literally anyone. It could have been neverwhere, it could be devin or gumshoe. But if it is an absentee, then once we take out the 'phantom' (and yes, call this the permanently active teammate if you like), the kill will stop happening, and we can lynch the absentees last if the game keeps going with no kills.

Your case on Jay was more than that length of time ago. I did read it. I think it holds merit but for one thing - you ignored the absentee aspect of things.

To me, there is no value in assuming or going after an absentee is on team webber right now, because we can factually determine that one very not absentee is on that team, and then once that person is dead we will find out if the second member is still alive now or not. It could well be canuck, for instance.

I brought ninja's name up because yesterday I made a case in which I pointed out 9 people that could not be the phantom. I eliminated 7 for absenteeism, and me and ninja for unspecified other reasons....

And you attacked the concept of absenteeism, and not me ruling out myself and ninja. This is what I found completely bizarre and, frankly, very bad about your entire response to my initial case.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I noticed your suggestion about nijuu and dropped the discussion of her altogether.

This is literally the first thing you've said in the last 24 hours that I think sounds civilian.

I feel like John McEnroe. Can this possibly be serious?

But I'll spell it out. I was trying to 'insinuate' that you are the phantom, and therefore know 100% that ninja and I are not on that team.

But here is the things MM - imagine a world in which I'm wrong about this - if you really want me to believe you, then I've given you the full toolbox for how to figure out who the phantom is and engage with me constructively on it. Why do you continue not to do that, and instead make out like this is some massive confusing conversation. It's really not that difficult...

Golden wrote:I think with 'bad players could be able to send in for each other and canuck could be one of them' you have come up with literally the only hole in my theory, so well done there. The practical idea that the team would ask dom to send every kill in from the phantom is an odd one to me. I still strongly disagree with it. But I will admit you have found the one possible truth which could be possible outside of one of those three being on team webber.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Golden, I did not go through all the possibilities, that was just the first one that came to mind because Canucklehead was NK'd recently by the other team.

Golden wrote:If you can come with any other possibilities, by all means try. I do not think you can - not without suggesting that a dead man is sending in the kill PMs. Oh, you can disagree with my assessments of myself and ninja, but I know that those two people are not on team webber, so that might persuade others but it won't persuade me.

Not sure this is so hard to follow...

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:If you can come with any other possibilities, by all means try. I do not think you can - not without suggesting that a dead man is sending in the kill PMs. Oh, you can disagree with my assessments of myself and ninja, but I know that those two people are not on team webber, so that might persuade others but it won't persuade me.

But I'll be honest - the fact you didn't go straight for that angle is a big part of why I think you are bad. I think you know me and ninja weren't webber

What? I can not comprehend your intentions here.

What intentions?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:And please stop saying things like "that doesn' look good for your civvieness". It's a word maneuver that makes me look bad without you actually calling me bad. I disagree with the tactic.

OK, sure.

I THINK YOU ARE THE PHANTOM!

I'm really not manipulating words to try and paint you as bad without calling you bad. I've made it very obvious at this point which specific role and team I believe you to be. I don't know why you can't see that things like that exact post you just made wouldn't look bad to me?

You are trying to make it look like I'm manipulating words and you are trying to discredit me. But I do not agree I'm using turns of phrases that are not me actually calling you bad. There is no doubt. I'm actually calling you bad. I do believe I am right about you being the phantom, and I think the way you have handled my suspicion over the last 24 hours is not the way someone who is civilian would have handled it, I think it's someone who I'm right about would have handled it.

If you can come with any other possibilities, by all means try. I do not think you can - not without suggesting that a dead man is sending in the kill PMs. Oh, you can disagree with my assessments of myself and ninja, but I know that those two people are not on team webber, so that might persuade others but it won't persuade me.

But I'll be honest - the fact you didn't go straight for that angle is a big part of why I think you are bad. I think you know me and ninja weren't webber

MM

I think with 'bad players could be able to send in for each other and canuck could be one of them' you have come up with literally the only hole in my theory, so well done there. The practical idea that the team would ask dom to send every kill in from the phantom is an odd one to me. I still strongly disagree with it. But I will admit you have found the one possible truth which could be possible outside of one of those three being on team webber.

The fact that you immediately went into attack the theory mode - discredit me was your move, rather than talk with me rationally about the other options - does not look good for your civilianness.

Also, you don't remember not wanting to lynch neverwhere?

Golden wrote:I would, however, really advocate that we consider lynching people who are actively putting in kills over someone like Neverwhere, however bad we think she may be. For that reason, I'd like to try and figure out the phantom today given we know its someone who has been permanently active. That rules out a lot of people. I think it could be DF.

I thought JJ had seen the wisdom in that, hence my disappointment in his vote.

@MM - just going to say this. I pushed for your lynch in end of day because I came up with a list of three people that I know one of them to be the phantom, and instead of looking to which of the other two were bad you looked to discredit the theory.

To me that looked bad in the moment. The way you handled my suspicion of you and tried to bait me into voting was something I did not feel seemed civilian.

If you really aren't bad, then the best request I can make of you is to recalibrate and think about which of the others you suspect most.

It's as I said during the day - I am persuadable. I want to figure this out. But right now evidence is my best tool. There are a number of people in this game I believe are confirmed civilians. I recognise I am one and suspicion that I'm on team webber is legit (less so suspicion I'm on wildhorn, which makes no sense). But I believe we can catch the phantom by using what I put into the thread and then people might see my alignment differently.

I'm frustrated with today's lynch because right now I do not think lynching inactives helps the town, and I had made that clear. I think a lot of my frustration here was coming out not specifically because I wanted to lynch you but because I just wanted the lynch to go a different direction to Neverwhere today.

I think DF and splints votes were necessarily defensive after I had called out the three of you as potential phantoms. It was my own fault.

@sloonei - you will realise when you read back that you voting was literally the only way to avoid a neverwhere vote. If you had voted a different way to neverwhere, it might have influenced the lynch.

Apologies if there are any spelling errors, I don't usually drunk post but I deserved alcohol after the week I've had.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:I don't understand what it is about basic mathematics which escapes you, MM.

@sloonei - in that case, did you miss the bit where I raised it long before splints did, when he was fighting with cobalt, hmm? And the bit where team two tried to KILL ME!

Fucking hell.

This is not my only reason for suspecting. It's something about the tone and direction of yojr recent posts. I'll try to pinpoint it when I have the time. I haven't read anything from the last 6 or 7 hours, so I don't know why everyone piled on Neverwhere. While she was probably my strongest suspect today, I do not like this lynch.

They piled on because you didn't show up, and they were waiting for you. When you didn't show up, the lynch was already decided.

@MM - but I didn't have four, did I. I had three. Sloonei didn't show up. Making a move would have caused a tie. Your mathematic skills seem to not be very astute.

This is you accusing me of NOT making a move, by the way. If you want to talk about how many votes I theoretically had and was trying to get, then trying to get people voting for you WAS a move. One that failed.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Sloonei wrote:I was silenced if that wasn't obvious. Missed the vote because work ran a little longer than I was anticipating. I would not have made a difference.
I think Golden might be bad.

I am starting to get a similar impression.

I really hoped he would have made a move to lynch me there at the end.

What move?

A move to lynch me. You seemed mildly tempted to vote for me if others would, and you shouted at Sloonei for missing the vote since you wanted him to vote for me.

Your basic mathematics ability seems to be lacking. It takes four votes.

I don't understand what it is about basic mathematics which escapes you, MM.

@sloonei - in that case, did you miss the bit where I raised it long before splints did, when he was fighting with cobalt, hmm? And the bit where team two tried to KILL ME!

Fucking hell.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Sloonei wrote:I was silenced if that wasn't obvious. Missed the vote because work ran a little longer than I was anticipating. I would not have made a difference.
I think Golden might be bad.

I am starting to get a similar impression.

I really hoped he would have made a move to lynch me there at the end.

What move?