The Syndicate

No kill on night three is also why I believe protector DOES exist.

MacDougall wrote:The fact that you are still alive is also a little bit confounding. Just a tad.

Why? It's only been since zebra died that I've gone on the offensive. It's why I asked for protection tonight, if it exists. Before that, we had no kill on night three so do you think I was so obviously and clearly the best target on nights one or two?

MacDougall wrote:Aside from you right?

Aside from me what?

Some other reasons Luke is bad.

Luke11646 wrote:

Golden wrote:Hey, Luke... you've played pretty well for a newbie. Especially if you are a civ with no teammates to speak to. I hope you stick around

Thanks, I guess.

I guess he felt the compliment was halfhearted.

a2thezebra wrote:Well you could lynch Luke, too. No civ-aligned player feels the need to say "I don't know who to vote for" this much.

Luke11646 wrote:

FZ. wrote:So Luke, if you're finished reading, what do you think of everything that's going on? Any thoughts? Who do you plan to vote for?

I don't really know who to vote for but I'm leaning towards voting for Mac, he hasn't done much at all recently and I don't know who else I should vote for.

Luke11646 wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Golden wrote:Marmot barely posted in this thread for days, and then suddenly appeared when people said it was suspicious. I don't think lynching him would be unfair - that's very odd behaviour for a marmot.

If I'm not going with Eloh, I could go with MM. What's your opinion of Eloh? You said that if zebra 1 comes out civ, you might change your opinion on Eloh. Did you?

What about Floyd?


Linki: Luke, if you go by who hasn't done much lately, there are plenty of people to lynch before Mac. What about Banana, Drac and some others? Does low posting equal being bad in your opinion? If that's the case, does it mean you're bad too?

I don't know who to vote for and I might just vote for someone who isn't going to get lynched, I don't want to miss two votes in a row.

Luke11646 wrote:The poll is about to end so I'm just going to vote for banana, he's only posted once and I don't know who to vote for, don't take this personally banana.

Luke11646 wrote:

sig wrote:I don't like Luke's vote at all he completely avoids both wagons and doesn't comment on either.
@Luke thoughts on MM/Floyd?

I'm new and I don't know who to vote for, I'll get back to you after I've re-read.

He definitely had the most motive to kill zebra, who was after him consistently from early on.

Elohcin wrote:Golden you have me in the wrong house. Also, I still haven't given up on the idea of a bad Bea.

Great. The entire reason I posted that list is because I was specifically hoping you would say that.

Now I'm 99.9% certain it's luke.

I have banana and luke that way around specifically because harkonnen kills are still occurring, otherwise they would still be interchangeable.

Mac's good, but despite his first 17 posts being on point

If we do not lynch luke tomorrow, we will not be lynching a harkonnen. Unless svs is wrong about bea. I'm going to have a second look at bea tomorrow.

House Atriedes

Mac
SVS
Matt
Golden
Draconus
Black Rock
Zebra 1.0

House Fremen

Zebra 2.0
FZ
bea
eloh

House emperor

Floyd
Ninja
Sorsha

House smuggler

Banana

House harkonnen

TH
MM
sig
luke

If I have anyone in the wrong house, they can feel free to call me out without telling me their real house. I'm not 100% certain.

FZ. wrote:

Golden wrote:Thanks FZ. I never saw those posts that were deleted, but I can confirm that I had deduced you to be House Fremen.

And what do you think about what I said about SVS? She's never played with me as a baddie, yet she claims to know how I act as one. Doesn't it look to you like maybe she was just trying to make me look bad?

SVS is someone I have a notable history of being unable to read. I think it is possible she is 'trying to make you look bad'. I also think it is possible she has just convinced herself you are bad. I think its also possible that your death is part of her win condition, even if she is not otherwise bad.

I don't think she is Feyd-Rautha, though.

Thanks FZ. I never saw those posts that were deleted, but I can confirm that I had deduced you to be House Fremen.

MacDougall wrote:Heh pissibility.

Good word

MacDougall wrote:

Golden wrote:I think the smuggler/rogue may be banana. We haven't seen any ill effects from this role (as far as I'm aware) even though I feel we might have expected to.

I am going by the assumption that the person who is influencing votes and polls is the rogue.

You think the same person is influencing both? That's a possibility I hadn't considered.

However, I mentioned earlier that epi doesn't allow self-targetting as a host. If the rogue is taking names off the poll, it isn't luke.

I think the smuggler/rogue may be banana. We haven't seen any ill effects from this role (as far as I'm aware) even though I feel we might have expected to.

Does it sound daft to me that I would be the one to point out the possibility that Wellington, specifically, could be a recruit if I was that role?

Yes. I do think that sounds daft.

Yes, eloh, I'm interested in luke is not on that list? If we could rule him out, wow. I haven't been able to yet. And do you find it at all persuasive that banana hasn't been around but zebra still died?

Matt F wrote:Golden - So do you still think I'm Wellington (you're wrong, btw) and now that Floyd is dead, do you think Wellington has been recruited by someone else?

The Wellington thing was just a theory - I had no proof of it in any direction (or even that Wellington is a traitor). And I'll admit, it was paranoia about you defending Floyd, and I feel a lot better about you now that that has passed with Floyd not being Harkonnen.

And if you are honest about you not being Wellington - then no, I don't think Wellington has been recruited, I think Wellington is dead.

I also have BR and draconus pegged as something, btw. That bit I'm kind of a little proud of!

Matt F wrote:

Golden wrote:

Elohcin wrote:I really wish you (Golden) would share more with us about your trust in FZ and how it came to be.

I've been working very hard, espeically by way of observing others responses to what happens in the game and various discussions and hints, to establish which house I believe each player to be in. There have been good reasons why this has felt like a good strategy for figuring out the game, not least of which is your own contributions. I believe I have established the house of many players. FZ is one. I believe there is evidence as to which house she is in, and I don't think it's Harkonnen.

I won't say more - I'll let FZ claim which house if she will, because even ruling out Harkonnen, if I'm wrong and she wanted to lie she only has a 25% chance of guessing right.

What house do you have me pegged for? What about bea? Just curious.

And no, I'm not accusing bea again, I'm just wondering.

I have you pegged as Atriedes. I feel pretty good about that. Not certain, but I feel good about it.

I have bea pegged as Fremen, but I'm a lot less sure. I'd have that at about 70%.

I'm not going to answer in respect of any more people, because I don't want to narrow down options for other people to presume where they fit into in my 'theory of the game'.

Elohcin wrote:I really wish you (Golden) would share more with us about your trust in FZ and how it came to be.

I've been working very hard, espeically by way of observing others responses to what happens in the game and various discussions and hints, to establish which house I believe each player to be in. There have been good reasons why this has felt like a good strategy for figuring out the game, not least of which is your own contributions. I believe I have established the house of many players. FZ is one. I believe there is evidence as to which house she is in, and I don't think it's Harkonnen.

I won't say more - I'll let FZ claim which house if she will, because even ruling out Harkonnen, if I'm wrong and she wanted to lie she only has a 25% chance of guessing right.

That was a response to Matt, not you, Eloh. I have never had the sense you are ignoring anything.

Sorsha wrote:

Golden wrote:If there is a protector out there, I feel like I might need a hand to survive tonight.

Lol.. You think Team Hark is going to kill you? Shouldn't they be thanking you?

For what? Not letting FZ die? They weren't invested in which of those two was lynched. But they will be invested if tomorrow is FZ vs the real harkonnen.

True... I could be wrong. But it is possible you could be wrong too, SVS, no?

I'm not a cop, I'm not a lie detector, I don't trust FZ for any reason that 'can be falsified', I've tried to make really clear these things.

What results can be falsified?

If there is a protector out there, I feel like I might need a hand to survive tonight.

S~V~S wrote:Can we lynch FZ now

No

The question is, are you harkonnen?

Close that poll!

Fingers crossed.

@FZ - I really hope this lynch proves it! Fingers crossed!

For me, it's the same. Is it just because of how the lynches go down, or do you disagree with the stuff I've said about thread content? Do you want to contribute more to it?

Matt F wrote:Sorry, got caught up in TH thread for a sec

Golden - I really don't want to see Floyd lynched. But at this point, it looks like he will so we'll see what happens.

And yes, you should always consider civ tunnely Matt F

What odds would you put on Floyd coming back civ?

And that is the honest truth of how I've been reading your posts today - defensive of Floyd and trying to avoid his lynch... not specifically pursuing FZ's lynch.

I am certain Eloh is truthful. I do, however, think it is possible you are Wellington Yueh. Your conduct today has begun to make me think you must be, because you seem to otherwise be ignoring things I wouldn't expect you to ignore.

I'm not 'twisting anything', but on the other hand I suppose there is a certain extent to which I should allow for perfectly normal civ Matt to be tunnelling right now, so it could well be that I'm just paranoid. But it does look to me like today, you've been less trying to solve it and more determined to make sure Floyd isn't lynched.

Matt F wrote:

Golden wrote:@Matt - your behaviour today has been... shall we say, I can only term it as VERY defensive of floyd.

But you haven't provided any context as to why I should trust this read. And you have ignored my points on FZ entirely.

What points? "Oh breakthrough, definitely not bad". M'kay.

As for defending Floyd, yeah I guess I am. I don't think he's bad.

Wow, boy, have you avoided all the actual points I made and boiled a days work down to a single post.

Matt, I'll ask again... when have you ever seen an entire baddie team... all four of them... all join on a lynch train one after the other to save a teammate, when all they would get in return if they succeeded was a civilian dead and no cred at all (especially if MM was just lynched again the next day).

Also, I don't read SVS as angry or anything. I just suspect that maybe it isn't in her interests for the game to end now (even if she is otherwise civ) and she was trying to persuasively change the course of today's outcome. When I talked about her having a 'tude', my point was that she was pushing me to answer things without any time for me to analyse or breathe, when it felt to me like having the space to work through things was the better way to get the right outcome.

It also felt like she was pushing me into answering Matt's question, when I did not trust Matt's question.

Or, she really believes FZ is bad so much that she is tunneling a bit.

If Floyd isn't the last harkonnen, I am absolutely confident it is luke. I'm not sure what Matt's game is, but it could well be setting up a civilian FZ lynch tomorrow. And yes, it will be a civilian lynch.

@Matt - your behaviour today has been... shall we say, I can only term it as VERY defensive of floyd.

But you haven't provided any context as to why I should trust this read. And you have ignored my points on FZ entirely.

Matt F wrote:I voted FZ. I don't think Floyd is bad and the only way he isn't lynched at this point is if the remaining voters go to FZ.

I would strongly resist listening to Matt. Don't vote FZ.

Further, if floyd is the last Harkonnen and the game does not end, I suggest lynching Matt tomorrow.

Matt F wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:BTW, Matt, do you believe my stating that I was stuck in a "dammit, little time, show do I vote for?" situation.

Considering Mac's bewildering statement about you, I think you're good, or at the very least, not Harkonnen. I won't be voting for you today.

Eh?

Hey, Luke... you've played pretty well for a newbie. Especially if you are a civ with no teammates to speak to. I hope you stick around

@bea - one harkonnen left, banana doesn't seem to have been here in days. The only reason I'm ruling banana out is... who killed zebra if banana is the last harkonnen?

I guess he could be if there is a recruit, though.

What sense does that make?

You asked me if I had bea levels of certainty, honestly. My honest answer is yes. I have bea levels of certainty. That you choose not to respect that, makes me think something more is going on.

If you can't take that for what you and I know it is, then I have to ask you - why have I made you vote FZ? Are we on team Harkonnen together? If I'm covering for her, why not vote me? I'm not sure what you are getting at, or why you feel the need to 'walk away'.

The most clear answer to me is that - perhaps some people won't have their win conditions satisfied if the harkonnens die today and the game ends, and maybe you are one of them. That's all I can think of.

Because I can't see any legitimate reason why you would ask us to 'trust how well you know bea and how certain you are' but ignore the same back from me... when neither bea nor FZ have done anything game-wise to fully clear themselves.

I've done as much as I can to explain why I think FZ looks bad, and why I don't think it is as bad as it looks. In fact, why I feel confident it can't be.

S~V~S wrote:

Golden wrote:

S~V~S wrote:Golden, I don't know how we can play in the same thread when you say things like you would rather lynch a million civs than someone you personally don;t suspect.

that does not even make any sense. And this is coming from me, a person who has a high tolerance for lack of sense making.

How many civs would you lynch before bea?

None. Bea has not voted in favor of the baddies in every lynch, and argued extensively to save sig and try to imply guilt on people who chose not to participate in saving the baddie sig.

Bea did not do any of that shit. FZ did.

The point of that question was how many civs would you have to see dead before you would suspect FZ.

Thats the point of my question, too. How many civilians would you have to see dead before you would suspect bea? My answer in respect of FZ is the same as yours in respect of bea.

I don't see what bea or FZs conduct in lynches has got to do with it. Bea is not good because she has an exemplary vote record. Her self vote on day one was suspicious, as you know all too well.

Sorsha wrote:

MacDougall wrote:For me I was sold by FZ's post volume. I find it challenging to align the thread count and sheer effort of posting woth what would have had to have been a seriously busy btsc with sehat has happened. Also TH looks like he tried to discredit her badly on the way out.

Effectively her vote evidence is very poor but aside from that she has been a bigger contributer than most. If we went through Floyd and Luke she would become top priority once again though.

I agree that she has been working hard to find lynch candidates but all her work has lead away from three baddie lynches so far...

Or, has it actually been correctly leading us towards one...

MacDougall wrote:For me I was sold by FZ's post volume. I find it challenging to align the thread count and sheer effort of posting woth what would have had to have been a seriously busy btsc with sehat has happened. Also TH looks like he tried to discredit her badly on the way out.

Effectively her vote evidence is very poor but aside from that she has been a bigger contributer than most. If we went through Floyd and Luke she would become top priority once again though.

Her thread volume is major. It's hard work to iso!

@Sorsha, it isn't one particular post to point to, per se.

S~V~S wrote:Golden, I don't know how we can play in the same thread when you say things like you would rather lynch a million civs than someone you personally don;t suspect.

that does not even make any sense. And this is coming from me, a person who has a high tolerance for lack of sense making.

How many civs would you lynch before bea?

Sorsha wrote:

Golden wrote:Oh, thank god, breakthrough.

I now do have bea levels of certainty on FZ.

Voting floyd.

Can you please explain? FZ has pretty much gone against every baddie lynch we have had in this game so far.

OK, but if floyd is bad she has also been ON baddie lynches, right?

Have a look at my case on Floyd, I think its good for explaining how I think those lynches went down and why I don't think FZ would be bad. Honestly, the day 2 lynch happening like it did if FZ is bad? I just don't see that happening in any world. Have you ever seen that happen!?

Otherwise, just remember I trusted you on MM, I trust SVS on bea, I think its time to trust me on FZ. That doesn't necessarily have to mean you vote floyd.

MacDougall wrote:I just had a quick look at a few pages. Floyd is also my vote. While the logic looks bizarre the thread evidence is not there for anyone else. All other players are genuine. Even niju and Luke.

Thanks mac.

I agree. I have been doing the iso on FZ, and its a mammoth task. I don't think the thread evidence is there for her either. I'm not quite seeing what you are on luke, but it seems much more strongly against floyd than it seems against luke.

Matt F wrote:Um I don't think I was criticizing you, Golden.

Anyway, I was thinking about taking up the herculean task of ISOing MM, sig, and TH, and cross reference who they spoke with, who they suspected, who they said was good, and who they didn't mention at all. I might start that in a sec.

@Matt - either floyd or luke is the last harkonnen. Luke isn't on the poll. Do the work if you like, but I would lynch a million civs before lynching FZ.

Oh, thank god, breakthrough.

I now do have bea levels of certainty on FZ.

Voting floyd.

MacDougall wrote:

Golden wrote:Honestly, I'm not sure why I'm getting a 'tude from you when I'm actually (as far as I can see) the only one putting work in in this thread to try and figure it out?

What an unfair thing to say.

I don't think, when I've clearly done an iso on floyd and luke and zebra, and have said I will so one on FZ, that it is at all unfair to respond that way to this response to me saying I haven't isoed FZ yet:

S~V~S wrote:Well then perhaps you should.

I find that to be on the nose.

(Unless you mean 'mac is putting work in'. Sure, but mac isn't criticising me while not doing work. Matt and SVS are. Perhaps I should have said 'when those criticising me aren't putting in that work'.)