The Syndicate

Maybe I should ask you another question - who do you believe is a Nked member of the Cabal?

Tranq wrote:I know who the NK'd Cabal member is

Are you implying that a Cabal member has spilled the teams secrets, and that you know and agree Floyd is, in fact, a victim of the Trickster?

Tranq wrote:

Golden wrote:1) Tranq really believes he has enough evidence to correctly identify that circle have 2 members left but that Cabal has only one; or
2) Tranq is executing a plan.

Both of these assumptions are correct.

Why do you believe you have enough evidence to presume the Cabal are down to one?

Maybe I'm stupid. Maybe SVS is the last cabal member and Tranq is doing exactly what you say and I'm overthinking it. But I find Tranq's behaviour very difficult to trust.

I'm going to vote tranq now. I understand what others are saying about it being a united front and I agree, so my tranq vote is not locked in stone. But it is my preference.

Well, thats what Tranq says his plan is.

But as I pointed out (in that big post you quoted) - in order to know you are eliminating the baddies 'as efficiently as possible' you have to leap through these hoops:

1) Assumptions about the make up and numbers of the two teams remaining
2) Correctly identifying people as being on a specific team, rather than acting on existing evidence of someone being bad. If LoRab is bad, who says she isn't cabal anyway?

Here is what tranq's theory appears in the way he has written it in the thread...

Tranq said he would sooner take out LoRab because he thinks she is bad and thinks she might be team circle.
Than SVS who he claims he knows is bad but has a deal with.

And that, to me, indicates one of the following:

1) Tranq really believes he has enough evidence to correctly identify that circle have 2 members left but that Cabal has only one; or
2) Tranq is executing a plan.

To me, this leaves me with having to figure out which of these I find more believable...

That Tranq, a civilian, was told by SVS 'I am the last cabal member' and then made a deal with her to protect her until the end, trusting SVS that she is the final member of her team (despite the possible evidence that the trickster could be involved), in the hope that he will correctly identify a circle baddie; or

That Tranq is bad, and wants us to lynch SVS at lylo so that he can win...

And honestly, I just find the second one more believable.

Draconus wrote:Here's one thing I don't understand about the whole Tranq and SVS thing, and people thinking they're a team. Why openly admit you have made a deal with a teammate? It doesn't make any logical sense to me.

I'm not sure if they are a team but...

What if we take tranqs advice, leave SVS until last, and Tranq is the bad one? Even worse, what if tranq is bad and has a teammate? I really see all of his conduct in recent times as being a big endgame play, I get the vibe that he is on the verge of winning the game right now.

In my mind I keep going back and forth - which one of tranq and SVS is bad? But I know one of them has to be. I still think its possible both are. What if tranq is circle and his deal is one that gets civvies lynched until we are done. I'm not convinced by the arguments that Lorab is bad.

So, Draco... you understand my point that we don't understand which team is actually bigger, and that Cabal could be the team in a position of power...

But you think it is important we lynch a circle first because you 'trust tranq'. And you think it is better to vote along with tranq because he 'thinks' someone is circle?

This makes no sense to me. There is a 50/50 change splints was killed by either SVS or tranq. Lynch one and we are guaranteed to either lynch a baddie or discover the other one is.

If you really trust tranq so much that you feel certain he isn't bad, then I think SVS is the way to go.

I'm afraid that LoRab will be the same as bass and matt...

I think we should lynch tranq, but I don't think I'm getting traction on that.

@svs - if you legitimately didn't kill splints, a tranq lynch would clear your name I think.

@splints - I did forget she said that... but what I didn't forget was my own feeling that perhaps tranq could still have been responsible... I can't see how anyone other than one of those two could be.

In some ways I think I'm being paranoid, but I'm trying to be good paranoid not bad paranoid. Can you see my points on tranq?

I agree that we need to be trying to get on the same page. If others are shutting me down on tranq today, I'll listen.

linki @ dom - I have been considering lots of combos, as I said earlier. I'm not taking it as gospel that either team is currently the one that is more urgent to take care of. I could see it being possible that either one (or both) is a big threat right now.

@SVS - well, yeah, I don't think it is accurate to call you a 'known' baddie at all. But the 'who killed splints' evidence is pretty strong, if tranq could be believed that he had skipped away before the kill it might even be damning. I'm considering the possibility that tranq could leave but kill splints because he knew where she was.

But here is the thing - for me, if tranq is not cabal he is circle.

S~V~S wrote:That's a good question, tbh. A really good question.

Don't get me wrong either, SVS. You still could be bad. The points about your defences of Luke and Juliets stand. But I don't think we should blindly pile on anyone.

Sorsha wrote:Because we don't know for sure Tranq is bad Golden. If svs isn't the last Cabal then I'll consider a Tranq vote.

How do we know for sure SVS is bad?

Right now I don't feel sure of anyone, but I feel most strong about tranq.

If you don't like the idea of making deals with baddies, why don't we lynch tranq?

I am beginning to think we are thinking the wrong way in trying to paint people on teams and 'lynch a circle' or 'lynch a cabal'.

I could see tranq being on either team. He seems manipulative. He is admitting making a deal with someone he claims to believe is bad. I don't trust him at all.

Plus I think he is Dr Dre.

SVS, I understand why you are upset, but I really want to know some things from you, like...

What is your view on tranq? and...
Is his claimed deal with you the truth; and...
Why are you ok with cabal winning if you are not bad?

Hosts - is answering tranq's question directly against the rules?

Tranq wrote:

Draconus wrote:

fingersplints wrote:I agree with you about the rest just trying to work out the numbers. I'm not sure why Lorab is cleared by some. I'd always rather lynch original baddie over recruit - so I guess my lynch options would look Lorab > SVS > Dom

I agree with the bolded. We'll need landslide lynches now, so hopefully Golden and Sorsha are on the same page as us.

I agree, landslide lynches. I'd like to hear Golden's thoughts aswell.

I definitely agree on landslide lynches.

And honestly, at this point... I think SVS is more likely to be innocent of the two.

@SVS - what do you think of tranq?

Draconus wrote:

fingersplints wrote:

Tranq wrote:So, MM and Timmer are dead. It still makes more sense to lynch another member of the Circle first.
SVS is a one-woman team at this point. Timmer had 3 teammates who helped him get off the poll. If he only had 2, another 3rd player would've gotten a PM asking them to take Timmer off the poll. I suspect they recruited the Living Statue, and have Scrippleskitz or Possessing Entity still alive. I'm not willing to give them the Cabal's NK tonight. With an SVS lynch and a civ NK, they're standing 4 vs 2. If they have Scrippleskitz, they win. If they have Possessing Entity, and the role is similar to the version in A World Apart, they potentially have a lynch deflection. They'd win.

Dom is the most obvious Circle of Decay member. I suspect LoRab is aswell. I think she recruited him. Their thread behaviour links them together and they both have connections to Timmer and Turnip Head aswell. I'll make a post on them in a bit.

I don't suspect Sorsha at this point. One could say the game has come full circle

How is it 4? We just lynched TH and Timmer is gone now

I agree with you about the rest just trying to work out the numbers. I'm not sure why Lorab is cleared by some. I'd always rather lynch original baddie over recruit - so I guess my lynch options would look Lorab > SVS > Dom

I agree with the bolded. We'll need landslide lynches now, so hopefully Golden and Sorsha are on the same page as us.

Not right now. I agree with you that we need to get on the same page though. But lets not just jump into one choice... discussion is what is needed.

I am really thinking tranq might be a good option. He is pushing one paricular narrative very hard when I think multiple potential scenarios are open..

Circle 2, cabal 1
Circle 1, cabal 2
Circle 2, cabal 2
Circle 1, cabal 1

I think we should be treating all of these as options. If SVS is bad and is the trickster, there is no reason for me to assume Cabal is down to one.

I have been believing tranq and SVS are a team for a while. Could LoRab be circle? I think it is possible, but I'm not as convinced...

Also, there is just the reality for me that every single person left in the game falls inside what I would call my circle of trust and so at this point I reocgnise I could be wrong about anyone and that includes Sorsha and Draco.

fingersplints wrote:Of course I am a bit paranoid about you pushing this though. If I am wrong and it isn't SVS that means it's you

Tranq is making me paranoid too. He has felt like he has an agenda for a while, to me way more than SVS does actually.

So, not that it is any surprise, but it looks like the post confirms timmer is circle of decay.

Sorsha wrote:Oh look, timmer got himself off the poll again

curious, though, I don't know of timmer voting SVS. Is it possible part of MM's role was to take down his killer with him? It's not evident from the role description.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:All the obvious baddie stuff has me uncomfortable. I have no idea why TH just voted to lynch himself when he then did get lynched and came back bad. Was he that confident that he is setting a serial killer free? That seems nuts to me.

I don't know if you saw the final poll, but he and timmer switched their votes to me at the last second.

I didn't see the final poll. Timmer said so in the thread, but TH didn't so I didn't realise he had flipped. That makes a lot more sense.

Voted theme park. I do love my Disney holidays

(plus I have all the other things at home).

All the obvious baddie stuff has me uncomfortable. I have no idea why TH just voted to lynch himself when he then did get lynched and came back bad. Was he that confident that he is setting a serial killer free? That seems nuts to me.

timmer wrote:

Golden wrote:Good outcome.

That should hopefully get timmer off the poll again tomorrow.

Sadly, no. I'm pretty sure my poll-avoiding days are over...

Thats what I meant, but now you have me worried.

Good outcome.

That should hopefully get timmer off the poll again tomorrow.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Golden wrote:I guess TH is wifoming us to try and make us think he will survive.

I'm not buying.

You could vote for him and ensure it, perhaps?

If one more vote is what it takes to ensure TH dies, why not yours?

I don't like feeling like I'm being manipulated,.

I guess TH is wifoming us to try and make us think he will survive.

I'm not buying.

I would have thought at least some baddies would be jumping on this.

Well, I don't think I am going to get my way anyway so it should be fine.

What interests me for now is the two others with me on the MM vote are two people I trust more. Not TH or timmer, for instance. The whole thing is bizarre.

I don't think SVS is being snide or rude. I think she is protecting someone who she has every reason to protect, good or bad, and I don't blame her for it.

I do, however, think it is an emotional appeal to say it is mean for me to vote MM like its a betrayal of trust. I understand that perspective, but it kind of sucks. If I believed SVS was a civ, I'd never have to do it. I'm voting MM because I perceive him to be a threat.

SVS, it would be ballsy to just vote for you - but not very sensible. I would feel crap if someone else was getting lynched because people read me as bad. If that's how you are feeling about my suspicion, then I get it. But I have to make the move I think is right, aside from that. I don't particularly want to lynch MM, but I feel like it is necessary for my chances of winning.

Also - I don't think anyone was killing splints from any square other than the one she was on, so... I mean if it wasn't you, SVS, what are the options? Tranq?

S~V~S wrote:So you think lynching someone who you don;t need dead to win is cool? Host verified?

My entire concept of you has changed, tbh.

It's a straw man argument to say I don't need him dead to win. My win condition does not need him dead to win. However, I believe in practice I almost certainly will not win unless he is dead. I have to be alive to win, SVS.

I am going to vote MM.

I have a feeling it isn't going to go that way, but I think it is the right vote. I'm just not around enough to properly participate today or at the moment in general. It's very frustrating given the game state.

If it goes TH's way, then I'm also very happy with that. I would, however, be very disappointed if this lynch was pushed in a direction other than one of those two.

I'm going to try and pop in towards end of day, but it just isn't easy at the moment. I'm really sorry it is the crappiest timing. But at least I think the options for going forward are clear, and it is really just a debate about which one is the best/most urgent for today. I do think the lynch poll could end up being rather telling.

No, TH, I didn't need to get people to 'think' I had info.

I WAS SURE. I was wrong, but I was sure.

I explained very precisely exactly what I meant at the time.

It's only you who has continued to ignore that, and make fun of me, and poke at the fact Bass and Matt were both civvies. Well, it's not a defence that is going to dissuade me from believing you are team circle. I can't possibly be wrong about everyone.

@SVS - how do you feel about tranq?

S~V~S wrote:Mac claimed to be a secret role. He explained how a hidden role worked, which involves another player, and is not important or anything I think LC would be OK with me discussing, but it was plausible, and I was not the only one to be told this. After G9 blew up, I checked the map, and hit the magnifying glass, and it took me to the hosts photobucket for Mafia. I got nosy, and in the middle of the role pictures for the game was this:



Amnesiac Psychopath. This is NOT the role he claimed to be.

NOT a friendly looking guy, and not in the role list. And I got the impression Sorsha trusted him, and she got pretty upset when he died. So there was that too.

Well that explains why the golem killed Mac. I didn't trust Mac, I felt he would have sold us down the river, but I think Sorsha got upset because there was a circle of trust and they started killing each other. I did have mixed feelings about it.

S~V~S wrote:EBWOP, I think Golden went along with it since he trusted Sorsha. She had been making feints at Bass for several days.

No, in that case it wasn't Sorsha. It was all my own process of elimination, genuinely, as I put in the thread.

G9 - I'm almost certain splints was responsible for that, but I think it was a cursecrafter item.

Turnip Head wrote:He said he was "more or less 100% sure" Bass was bad; as I've been harping on, what does that even mean?

It has a very plain meaning. I gave you a link to both the definition, and then I explained exactly what I meant and why I said it. The fact you are still harping on it does not look good for you, in my opinion.

Tranq wrote:Well, Timmer voted you on Day 10. Maybe we should test your theory by asking the Golem to NK Timmer tonight?

Testing the theory would require us to lynch neither MM or TH, so I'm not in support of that.

Tranq wrote:

Golden wrote:Sorry - I haven't put very much eye on this thread recently, I've been too focussed on the other game. My bad. I'm going to try and get back into this one shortly. It's just that the other has been taking a lot of my energy.

Jesus. Here i think we're in a possibly LYLO situation and you're off playing other games

Where do you think your vote is going to?
What do you think of the Golem protecting TH? :P

I'd really prefer an MM vote - but if I can't get it going I'm going to vote TH.

At this point, I tend to think TH really believed the golem was protecting him, but the theory isn't sound, to me. I think he is protecting SVS.

My preferred order would be MM -> TH -> Timmer (assuming lynching TH gets timmer off the poll) and then figuring out if its SVS and what we need to do to do it. In this time we should have time to figure out Lorab, Dom, Sorsha and you.

I'm not quite as worried about lylo as you are clearly, I feel like we have to play it smart to pick off both teams, its the possibility of a serial killer and its extra kill that is an extra factor outside of the town and lynches that I've most worried about right now.

Not a fan of some of this stuff.

I get where sorsha is coming from, and I still feel like she is more likely civ, I don't feel like there is a huge amount of room for doubt, but there is still room for doubt and for constructive and critical thinking.

I'm absolutely certain Sorsha is not the trickster. She is one of the few people that I have actual evidence that is clearly the role I believe her to be. I wasn't implying otherwise, I hope no one thought I was?

Sorry - I haven't put very much eye on this thread recently, I've been too focussed on the other game. My bad. I'm going to try and get back into this one shortly. It's just that the other has been taking a lot of my energy.

Tranq wrote:TH ofcourse. I've already voted for him

The SK is a SK without a K atm. Vanilla, basically. How are you getting a 3 v 3 scenario? Who's the extra Cabal? Who's the dead Circle? I had Typhoony down as a dead Circle for a while but now i doubt that's true. They might even have their full team intact. I don't see how anything other than a Circle lynch today is a good plan.

Do you know Typhoony's role? I do think he is likely their fourth.

Who is extra cabal... honestly, maybe you. Yes, I know they apparently killed you. But then you came back, and went hard after Floyd, who I think could have been the trickster target. But not necessarily you. I think I'm getting to that paranoid point. I just think if SVS is on that team, she is the trickster, and I feel more confident that there is likely another person on that team.

At the same time, I get your point tranq... I'm paranoid about any option. Two days ago, I thought we had four people to lynch and the game would be done. Now, I feel like we are on the edge of a loss, and I definitely feel it's partly my fault.

Tranq wrote:I don't think anyone paying attention to the thread can be in doubt of MM's role.

Did you read the conversation i just had with Sorsha?

You mean... about how we get some circle and then double back on SVS later?

I would be up for that too... who do you think is the best first lynch if we go circle first...

The thing is... if SVS is trickster, and with MM in the field... I could see it being 3 v 3 right now, and one team has a potential serial killer. Thats why I think going that way isn't a bad idea. I wouldn't advocate then immediately lynching SVS the next day... its a tight needle to thread.

Tranq wrote:

Golden wrote:If you believe SVS killed you today, I also think MM is the right choice for a lynch.

You can't be serious

You do know MMs role, right? Or believe you do?

fingersplints wrote:That is an acceptable answer.

How acceptable - because... to me this matters very much. If you believe SVS killed you today, I also think MM is the right choice for a lynch.

And that also means... that I think tranq was right all along, and the trickster could fool us even in voting for them on the poll.

Turnip Head wrote:Golden

It's basic mathematics.

Looks like the trickster is a townie.

Tranq made a point.. how do you know this reval won't be a lie? But my gut says there is nothing in the trickster's role that would cause this host reveal to be a lie. And, I kind of wonder if some of the anti-trickster vote sentiment was from people who were a little afraid that we would find out the trickster wasn't bad.

I'm glad to see fingersplints survive, and I'd like to know if she has any inclination as to who tried to kill her.

Tranq wrote:

Golden wrote:@Draconus - I don't know, but for me it would avoid the necessity for two lynches, so it would be a pretty big swing.

Plus, you know what I mean when I say I could double back and get the Master Thief in other ways. With the trickster, I feel blind.

Maybe you could double back on the Master Thief, but i can't. Knowing whether or not that role is 100% good or bad without a doubt would be a huge help.
Also, who says the Trickster can't fake his appearance from this poll?

Well, now you've really gone and made me paranoid, tranq! That is a scary thought. But I don't think LC would do that to us.

In all seriousness, though, in this case, I just think each of the two of us probably feel we benefit more from different options. I can appreciate why you wouldn't trust my double back, but I know that I can trust it.

@Draconus - I don't know, but for me it would avoid the necessity for two lynches, so it would be a pretty big swing.

Plus, you know what I mean when I say I could double back and get the Master Thief in other ways. With the trickster, I feel blind.

Turnip Head wrote:

Golden wrote:@TH - I've explained it over and over and over and over again. You just don't like the explanation.

It's basic mathematics.

Yeah... that's what you said about Matt and Bass too... may they rest in peace.

Well, not every single person in the game can be pulling the wool.

S~V~S wrote:The point is that the person you suspect DID actually say they would consider voting for the Trickster.

I don't understand what you are getting at.