The Syndicate

Awake for now. Glad we found Cavil. Poo on more resurrection.

I'm on some light pain meds, FYI. I had outpatient surgery this morning, so I may not be around much today while I recuperate . Ricochet can confirm that I am telling the truth because it's the same outpatient surgery I was supposed to have during his heist game but the doc nixed the procedure when I nearly passed out from local anesthetic shot because mama raised a wimp and G-Man doesn't do needles well. Am I rambling? Might be. Focker.... out!

This is post # I don't know

sig wrote:Post 5

I don't see an issue with Rico's opinion of Epi, and i think his outburst was genuine.

I'll be voting for Epi today for reasons previously stated.

Epi

Also I don't want to lynch one of the final five the first day they're back.

Aright, well I don't think we should be lynching Epi. #3 it is.

Vote = S~V~S

Linki: wrong you are, it seems. Hmmm? :P

This is post #6.

More linki: vote spread much?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Forgot the vote needs its own line.

Black Rock

And this vote puts me in a quandary. I'd like to stick to voting for one of my bad reads. Both BR and SVS are among those reads but they are my #4 and 3 respectively. We need to stop spreading the votes around, so voting my top two seem to be off the table. I just don't think BR is going to have much traction but I also want to spend some time reading up SVS's progression on bea in case that makes me feel any better or worse on her.

This is post #5.

Polo wrote:
G-Man wrote:Admiral wants us to post reads and cut to the chase. For that reason, I'm going to eliminate neutral/unsure reads for all except the four rezzed player. These GTH-esque classifications are based on votes and notes.

Black Rock- Bad
Dex- ?
DrumBeats- Bad
DrWilgy- Good
Epignosis- Good
insertnamehere- Good
JaggedJimmyJay- Good
juliets- ?
Matt- Good
Nerolunar- ?
ObscureAllure- Good
Polo- Good
rabbit8- Good
Ricochet- Good
S~V~S- Bad
sig- Good
SokothQultuq- Bad
Spacedaisy- ?

I will try to elaborate on a few of these once I get home from the office. I still have more work to do.

This is post #3.
You think S~V~S may be mafia you say. You vote her tonight too would, hmm?

Actually, I'm still more suspicious of DrumBeats and Sokoth still. I found what feels to me like an unnatural/forced progression on S~V~S's view on Glorfindel Day 6. I'll post it if the baby will let me leave her side. I hate using my phone for playing but baby girl flips out everytime I get up off the floor. Playtime is srsbsns it seems.

This is post # 4.

Admiral wants us to post reads and cut to the chase. For that reason, I'm going to eliminate neutral/unsure reads for all except the four rezzed player. These GTH-esque classifications are based on votes and notes.

Black Rock- Bad
Dex- ?
DrumBeats- Bad
DrWilgy- Good
Epignosis- Good
insertnamehere- Good
JaggedJimmyJay- Good
juliets- ?
Matt- Good
Nerolunar- ?
ObscureAllure- Good
Polo- Good
rabbit8- Good
Ricochet- Good
S~V~S- Bad
sig- Good
SokothQultuq- Bad
Spacedaisy- ?

I will try to elaborate on a few of these once I get home from the office. I still have more work to do.

This is post #3.

At long last, I can add alignments to the technicolors. I think it completely changes the way we can look at these in a good way. If you look at the 'In Vote Order' lists, look at where the different alignments were voting and where the gaps leave room for opportunistic baddie votes. Take that gap voter and look at their votes all the way through. Does anyone disagree that we can assume the remaining NK'd players were probably civ?

Day 1 still feels like a lost cause given how spread out the votes were and the fact that there were so many missed votes. Then again, with so many revealed players in the missing votes list, it might make it easier to look for the baddies in Day 1. Days 2-5 are prime for spotting baddie gap votes. The longer we get into the game, the more names get alignments behind them, the harder it is for baddies to hide their votes as the picture becomes clear. You can hide your bad vote in the moment but not forever.

I also altered the way Epi and Wilgy are listed. Don't forget to take a second look at their votes too, since they're still alive. Same thing goes for the Final Five. Does anyone disagree that we can assume they were civ before they were rezzed Day 9?

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

IN VOTE ORDER:

1. EPIGNOSIS (Metalmarsh89)<----NK'd
2. IKA (Vompatti)<----MODKILLED
3. MATT (Long Con)<----SECRET ROLE-Admiral Cain- Lynched-CIVVIE
4. POLO (ObscureAllure)
5. BLACK ROCK (a2thezebra)
6. OBSCUREALLURE (Nerolunar)<----HUMAN- Lynched rezzed as FINAL FIVE
7. EPIGNOSIS (Silverwolf)
8. DFARADAY (Scotty)<----NK'd
9. RICOCHET (Matt)
10. EPIGNOSIS (Ika)<----NK'd
11. s~v~s (Ricochet)
12. RICOCHET (DrumBeats)
13. MATT (Spacedaisy)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
14. LONG CON (sig)
15. METALMARSH89 (juliets)<----HUMAN-Hot Dog- Died in sortie- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
16. RICOCHET (S~V~S)
17. EPIGNOSIS (indiglo)<----NK'd
18. METALMARSH89 (G-Man)
19. EPIGNOSIS (JaggedJimmyJay)
20. INAWORDYES (LoRab)<----CYLON #3- Lynched- INDY

MISSED THE VOTE:
Bea<----HUMAN- Lynched- CIVVIE
DFaraday<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
Inawordyes/DrWilgy<----CYLON #?- ???
Epignosis<----CYLON #8a- Lynched- auto-rezzed- ???
Glorfindel<----CYLON #8b- Lynched- CIVVIE
Nutella<----CYLON #4- Lynched- BADDIE
Sokoth

DISQUALIFIED VOTES:
Black Rock
Polo

PER VOTE RECIPIENT:

1. EPIGNOSIS (Metalmarsh89)<----NK'd
7. EPIGNOSIS (Silverwolf)
10. EPIGNOSIS (Ika)<----NK'd
17. EPIGNOSIS (indiglo)<----NK'd
19. EPIGNOSIS (JaggedJimmyJay)

9. RICOCHET (Matt)
12. RICOCHET (DrumBeats)
16. RICOCHET (S~V~S)

3. MATT (Long Con)<----SECRET ROLE-Admiral Cain- Lynched- CIVVIE
13. MATT (Spacedaisy)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE

15. METALMARSH89 (juliets)<----HUMAN-Hot Dog- Died in sortie- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
18. METALMARSH89 (G-Man)

2. IKA (Vompatti)<----MODKILLED

4. POLO (ObscureAllure)

5. BLACK ROCK (a2thezebra)

6. OBSCUREALLURE (Nerolunar)<----HUMAN- Lynched rezzed as FINAL FIVE

8. DFARADAY (Scotty)<----NK'd

11. s~v~s (Ricochet)

14. LONG CON (sig)

20. INAWORDYES (LoRab)<----CYLON #3- Lynched- INDY

MISSED THE VOTE:
Bea<----HUMAN- Lynched- CIVVIE
DFaraday<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
Inawordyes/DrWilgy<----CYLON #?- ???
Epignosis<----CYLON #8a- Lynched- auto-rezzed- ???
Glorfindel<----CYLON #8b- Lynched- CIVVIE
Nutella<----CYLON #4- Lynched- BADDIE
Sokoth

DISQUALIFIED VOTES:
Black Rock
Polo

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

IN VOTE ORDER:

1. A2THEZEBRA (Metalmarsh89)<----NK'd
2. RICOCHET (a2thezebra)
3. NUTELLA (G-Man)
4. LONG CON (Nerolunar)<----HUMAN- Lynched rezzed as FINAL FIVE
5. VOMPATTI (Vompatti)<----MODKILLED
6. LONG CON (indiglo)<----NK'd
7. LONG CON (LoRab)<----CYLON #3- Lynched- INDY
8. A2THEZEBRA (Matt)
9. NUTELLA (S~V~S)
10. NUTELLA (Silverwolf)
11. EPIGNOSIS (sig)
12. SIG (Long Con)<----SECRET ROLE-Admiral Cain- Lynched- CIVVIE
13. NUTELLA (ObscureAllure)
14. NUTELLA (Scotty)<----NK'd
15. LORAB (bea)<----HUMAN- Lynched- CIVVIE
16. A2THEZEBRA (Ricochet)
17. EPIGNOSIS (DrWilgy)<----CYLON #?- ???
18. VOMPATTI (Polo)
19. LONG CON (Spacedaisy)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
20. NUTELLA (juliets)<----HUMAN-Hot Dog- Died in sortie- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
21. LONG CON (nutella)<----CYLON #4- Lynched- BADDIE
22. NUTELLA (JaggedJimmyJay)
23. A2THEZEBRA (DFaraday)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
24. NUTELLA (Black Rock)
25. NUTELLA (DrumBeats)
26. LONG CON (Glorfindel)<----CYLON #8b- Lynched- CIVVIE

MISSED THE VOTE:
Epignosis<----CYLON #8a- Lynched- auto-rezzed- ???
SokothQultuq

PER VOTE RECIPIENT:

3. NUTELLA (G-Man)
9. NUTELLA (S~V~S)
10. NUTELLA (Silverwolf)
13. NUTELLA (ObscureAllure)
14. NUTELLA (Scotty)<----NK'd
20. NUTELLA (juliets)<----HUMAN-Hot Dog- Died in sortie- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
22. NUTELLA (JaggedJimmyJay)
24. NUTELLA (Black Rock)
25. NUTELLA (DrumBeats)

4. LONG CON (Nerolunar)<----HUMAN- Lynched rezzed as FINAL FIVE
6. LONG CON (indiglo)<----NK'd
7. LONG CON (LoRab)<----CYLON #3- Lynched- INDY
19. LONG CON (Spacedaisy)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
21. LONG CON (nutella)<----CYLON #4- Lynched- BADDIE
26. LONG CON (Glorfindel)<----CYLON #8b- Lynched- CIVVIE

1. A2THEZEBRA (Metalmarsh89)<----NK'd
8. A2THEZEBRA (Matt)
16. A2THEZEBRA (Ricochet)
23. A2THEZEBRA (DFaraday)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE

5. VOMPATTI (Vompatti)<----MODKILLED
18. VOMPATTI (Polo)

11. EPIGNOSIS (sig)
17. EPIGNOSIS (DrWilgy)<----CYLON #?- ???

2. RICOCHET (a2thezebra)

12. SIG (Long Con)<----SECRET ROLE-Admiral Cain- Lynched- CIVVIE

15. LORAB (bea)<----HUMAN- Lynched- CIVVIE

MISSED THE VOTE:
Epignosis<----CYLON #8a- Lynched- auto-rezzed- ???
SokothQultuq

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

IN VOTE ORDER:

1. RICOCHET (Long Con)<----SECRET ROLE-Admiral Cain- Lynched- CIVVIE
2. SIG (Scotty)<----NK'd
3. S~V~S (Matt)
4. DRWILGY (Nerolunar)<----HUMAN- Lynched rezzed as FINAL FIVE
5. LORAB (Polo)
6. LORAB (a2thezebra)
7. LORAB (Vompatti)<----MODKILLED
8. LORAB (Ricochet)
9. LORAB (S~V~S)
10. LORAB (DFaraday)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
11. LORAB (JaggedJimmyJay)
12. BEA (LoRab)<----CYLON #3- Lynched- INDY
13. NEROLUNAR (ObscureAllure)
14. NEROLUNAR (Epignosis)<----CYLON #8a- Lynched- auto-rezzed- ???
15. JAGGEDJIMMYJAY (SokothQultuq)
16. NEROLUNAR (Juliets)<----HUMAN-Hot Dog- Died in sortie- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
17. NEROLUNAR (sig)
18. NEROLUNAR (Glorfindel)<----CYLON #8b- Lynched- CIVVIE
19. GLORFINDEL (G-Man)
20. NEROLUNAR (Bea)<----HUMAN- Lynched- CIVVIE
21. NEROLUNAR (DrumBeats)
22. LORAB (Black Rock)
23. LORAB (Spacedaisy)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
24. NEROLUNAR (DrWilgy)<----CYLON #?- ???
25. NEROLUNAR (Metalmarsh89)<----NK'd

MISSED THE VOTE:
Silverwolf

DISQUALIFIED VOTES:
SokothQultuq

PER VOTE RECIPIENT:

5. LORAB (Polo)
6. LORAB (a2thezebra)
7. LORAB (Vompatti)<----MODKILLED
8. LORAB (Ricochet)
9. LORAB (S~V~S)
10. LORAB (DFaraday)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
11. LORAB (JaggedJimmyJay)
22. LORAB (Black Rock)
23. LORAB (Spacedaisy)<----NK'd- rezzed as FINAL FIVE

13. NEROLUNAR (ObscureAllure)
14. NEROLUNAR (Epignosis)<----CYLON #8a- Lynched- auto-rezzed- ???
16. NEROLUNAR (Juliets)<----HUMAN-Hot Dog- Died in sortie- rezzed as FINAL FIVE
17. NEROLUNAR (sig)
18. NEROLUNAR (Glorfindel)<----CYLON #8b- Lynched- CIVVIE
20. NEROLUNAR (Bea)<----HUMAN- Lynched- CIVVIE
21. NEROLUNAR (DrumBeats)
24. NEROLUNAR (DrWilgy)<----CYLON #?- ???
25. NEROLUNAR (Metalmarsh89)<----NK'd

1. RICOCHET (Long Con)<----SECRET ROLE-Admiral Cain- Lynched- CIVVIE

2. SIG (Scotty)<----NK'd

3. S~V~S (Matt)

4. DRWILGY (Nerolunar)<----HUMAN- Lynched rezzed as FINAL FIVE

12. BEA (LoRab)<----CYLON #3- Lynched- INDY

15. JAGGEDJIMMYJAY (SokothQultuq)

19. GLORFINDEL (G-Man)

MISSED THE VOTE:
Silverwolf

DISQUALIFIED VOTES:
SokothQultuq

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

DAY 7

Spoiler: show

DAY 8

Spoiler: show

I have to process this to see if any new reads develop out of adding the alignments. I'm swamped at work because I'm off the next two days. I'll try to get some reads out there around dinnertime. That's probably the next time I'll be able to jump on.

This is post #2.

So say we all.

Are the four returning playeres revived with their powers in tact? If so, I hope Nero and juliets are civ-aligned, since we know both of their roles are useful.

I'll be out most of today (realtime day). It's day 2 of the family member graduation party circuit. Today is a road trip to the Poconos beginning in 30 minutes. Reception is spotty up there and I'll be away from my spreadsheet.

Speaking of my spreadsheet, I'm trusting it over my gut from here on out. Epi's hunch was right- Glorfindel was able to sound so adamant because he was on his own. Glorfindel, I cannot apologize enough. Let me start with this: I cry your pardon. I have forgotten the face of my father.

I'll revise the technicolors with the new reveal info and post my reads tonight when I get home or tomorrow morning.

This is post #1.

All this talk about Epi being the opposite #8 than he flipped just seems silly to me.

1) Can we really trust anything coming from the dead? There are baddies in there! Of course they are going to try to sow seeds of doubt. One of those messages was generic as hell and the other one I'm almost certain came from Glorfindel.

2) If Epi were some super-devious role-flipping seemer-bot, why wouldn't Glorfindel have fought Epi's status all game long?

3) Are we actually considering some kind of role-flipping seemer-bot ability for the baddies on top of everything we already know/suspect? Isn't that just a little much to cram into one game? Doesn't it make things a more complicated and difficult than it needs to be?

This feels like a distraction that needs to be shelved and ignored.

Ricochet wrote:G-Man didn't salute.

Are you talking about the current phase? There wasn't a SSWA in the night post.

DrumBeats wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:
Matt wrote:RIP bea.

Not going to lie, you were one of my top susses. One reason that I never shared was that Glorfindel at one point used the word "maths". I looked into his entire post history at the Syndicate, and he had never used that word before until this game. And I know you use the word "maths" often, so I thought maybe you were saying it in btsc and he picked up on it.

Alas, that wasn't so.

Now, ObscureAllure, I would like to know...

ObscureAllure wrote:Bea - I keep seeing you say you're a nub player. have you not been playing for years?
What was your intent with this post? Did you think that bea was trying to trick people into thinking she was actually a nub who just started playing? Tbh, this question just seems like it's there to make bea jump through hoops and I don't like it.

The point of the post is exactly as it sounded. She has said multiple times this game that she's a "nub" (the slang of newbie) player and it is odd to me because she was around years ago before I took a break. You can't really be a newbie at something you've been playing for years. It felt like she was using that as an excuse (oh, I can't figure out who the mafia are because I'm just a lowly nub!" Type of a feel. How on earth does that make me suspicious?

I'm beginning to understand that Matt jokes because you pick the weirdest, not role related shit to harp on.
To be fair, as someone who doesn't know how long any of you were here, I thought Bea was actually a "nub" using the newbie defense.

As far as I know, someone calling themselves either the term "nub" or "n00b" doesn't just mean "I am a new player." It's also a self-deprecating remark implying that you are playing like a nub or having a bad game where nothing clicks. I remember that being Piano lingo because certain players would call each other 'nub dutchies.' I don't know that OA ever played at The Piano but several Piano folk migrated to Rev, where OA resurfaced after STV crashed and burned for the second (or third?) time. If she was ever exposed to it, I would assume she has just forgotten. It's a molehill, not a mountain.

RIP bea.

I think I found what I didn't like about S~V~S's Day 6 vote but I'm going to keep reading through her content to see if there's any more to it.

I agree with Jimmy. Since losing the amnesty claim to strategize around, we've been a little sloppy as a group. We need to come up with a PLAN for approaching tomorrow's vote. If we can all share some reads tonight and during the first half of Day 9, maybe we can pick up a sense of direction. Day 8 was like Day 1 revisited but without the favorable result. All the missed votes make my spreadsheet weep.

After checking your posts, DrumBeats, this is the one we are both referencing. I apologize for failing to take your whole post into account in my notes. I noted your sarcastic ''thanks for that" but failed to note it as sarcasm. You were not in favor of Cain after all. The rest of my behavior observations stand though. You've had a strange game, sir.

Now for that better offer...

A better offer has come up, so I have to vote and leave now.

If I'm going with my strongest hunch. I'd like the vote data to be more complete but there is so much weirdness to his record that I can't give him a pass.

vote = DrumBeats

And now for DrumBeats' votes:

Day 1 he votes mid-pack for Rico. Consistent with his Day 1 suspicion of Rico. Day 1 is still too spread out for me to make anything of it.

Day 2 vote comes next to last overall and isn't necessary to seal the deal on her lynch. It is at least consistent with his suspicion of her but I thought his suspicions were soft.

Day 3 is that Nero vote.

Day 4 he is the first to vote overall and votes for the obvious target: LoRab. Eager to attone for his Day 3?

Day 5 he misses the vote. Was he being punished or was it a miss? I can't recall just now.

Day 6 is when he nearly repeats his Day 3 by voting sig.

Day 7 is another miss. He was in the brig.

That's three missing votes out of seven. The remaining votes look suspect in varying degrees and they aren't helped by the absence of other votes that could make him look better.

Aw crapweasels. 'He' is DrumBeats. Sorry about that.

Linki:

'd by JJJ

Apologies for splitting this up but I want to get this out there before too close to the deadline. I'll post the vote analysis portion after I eat dinner.

Behavioral Observations:

Pre-Day 1 he jumped right in and tried to help with the opening decoding puzzle

-Night 1 he becomes an early adherant of 1) Epi is civ-aligned and 2) Not all Toasters are bad. He asks people for their thoughts about the merits of the checkerboard sortie plan.

Day 2 he suspects Nutella for very silly reasons (the letter N isn't common- um, watch Wheel of Fortune much?)

Day 3 he recommends we use either Glorfindel or bea on the counterwagon to LoRab instead of Nero, who flipped human. Later on, as the Nero train is established, he reverses course and suggests we put Nero in the lead over LoRab, which would nix our ability to confirm her amnesty claim.

Day 4 he thanks Cain for martial law (even though it makes the game harder to win for the civs)

Night 5 he seems pretty firm in thinking that Wilgy is bad and says he'll be suspicious of Wilgy defenders if Wilgy flips as Caprica 6.

Day 6 he still pursues his suspicion of Wilgy and chides those who buy into Wilgy being Caprica 6 or #2. He also questions Dex's and Polo's motives for entertaining the notion that Wilgy is civ-aligned. He also questions the issue of balancing a game with a small baddie team.

Day 7 he was in the brig, I think.

A little pressed for time, so here's the basic outline for bea:

Behavioral Observations:
Day 2- Suggests the accuracy of a split/fragmented BTSC baddie team is accurate for game balance when all we had done was lynch a civ-aligned Toaster and this came before Nutella denied having BTSC.

Day 4- Refuses to make amnesty claim; null read on Glorfindel

Day 5- Civ read on Glorfindel and she votes sideways on sig under the guise of giving Wilgy more time to explain himself while not drunk

Day 6- Says she's leaning toward a sig vote but ultimately votes for Glorfindel

Vote Analysis:
-Missed the Day 1 vote
-Day 2 she voted mid-pack sideways on LoRab (lone vote that way) instead of any other multi-vote trains
-Day 3 she votes mid-to-late on Nero, bringing him within 1 vote of LoRab (delay tactic on a suspected civ-aligned?)
-Day 4 makes a safe late vote on LoRab
-Day 5 is a sideways vote on sig (but this isn't very damning at all since we know LC was bad and Wilgy may be civ-aligned)
-Day 6 is a deadline vote for Glorfindel (could be trying to look good for helping lock & confirm Glorf but it was a non-lynch)
-Missed Day 7 vote

If you want to look for teamwork behavior with Nutella, good luck because Nutella died Day 2 and bea missed the Day 1 vote.

If you want to look for teamwork behavior with Glorfindel, save for Day 2, all of her votes are within three votes of Glorfindel (though looking back at the times of said votes is necessary to see how close in time they voted, not just how close they are on the vote list).

Early bea looks worse than recent bea, so this is a little soft. Sokoth might deserve my #2 spot instead of bea looking at all this written out. One thing I come back to is that she feels like a quiet player but she's got a decent post count. Probably because she blitzes us with posts whenever she's around.

SokothQultuq wrote:G-Man – Cylon
Seemed Pretty Nonchelant when Glorfi was sent to the cleaners which is odd to me to be honest. I would think you would be excited to see another potential Cylon outed and destroyed if you were town. I thought that was a little strange. Seems to be a supporter of the Wilgy is not a Cylon Camp.

Along with Ricochet's observations, I feel there are points on me that need corrected. I'll admit that Glorfindel's flip was more cathartic for me than triumphant. I had been on his case since Day 3 and I was growing a little weary of the pursuit.

Also, I do not support the "Wilgy is not a Cylon Camp." I think he is one, just civ-aligned. If true, which I believe is the case, we don't need him dead to win.

Gotta get some work done. I'll post the looks on my top two suspects (Bea and DrumBeats) in a little bit.

ObscureAllure wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:
DrumBeats wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:So both sig and Wigly are confirmed cylons due to surviving their lynches. I think we can all agree that there is likely only one good cylon left. This means at least one of the two of them should be bad. Are we not going to discuss this?
Didn't we come to the conclusion that there were likely two goods left earlier (Cap Six + Leoben)? I remember that was what Dex was pushing

He's not Six, so it leaves one. I figured out a long time ago who six and Gaias are. I'm honestly shocked more people haven't. He's not six.
I had an idea of who Baltar might be, but then it didn't check out after a certain lynch. So.

Would you be willing to start a sentence with "I think" and then say who?
Helllllll no. But I WILL say I think it's non of the people who are known/highly suspected cylons (Wigly, sig). Which leaves only one possibly good role and two cylons. One of them has to be bad. (possibly both is neither one is the last good guy, or if the good guy isn't actually good.) Despite Dex's dying comment, I'm more likely to suspect Wigly on it. But I'm not ready to vote for that, yet. I think Matt and Polo are also highly likely to be cylons. Of the four, though, Sig is probably my vote. Sig voted for Glor the day Glor was saved, but when voted for Wigly the day that Glor was dying? Why? Also voted for Zebra the day that LoRab died, but NeroLunar to save LoRab? The votes seem odd. It feels like a baddie trying to save LoRab in both cases, and then trying to hide in the Glor bandwagon while he was safe before trying to shift attention to Wigly when Glor was no longer safe.

Matt - please run it through again and repost to help with the translation.

Articulate, if you would please, why you think LoRab was not civ-aligned / anti-Cavil. The lore folks suggested she might have been, given the character's rebellion against Cavil on the show.

As of today, only two people from my Day 5 suspect list are still alive- DrWilgy and sig. Seeing as I think DrWilgy is a good Cylon per Dex and I think sig is a human, I had to review my notes and crunch the technicolors quite a bit.

My weakest suspicion right now is Black Rock. That is mostly due to my natural inclination to be wary of her and the fact that she's still around. There are fewer people left in the game, so she ticks back up into the suspicious category. I understand that RL is weighing her down right now. I've been there myself. I actually feel bad about suspecting her because it's not really on substance but on a tiny fleck of paranoia that's cemented itself over the years and never goes away.

Up next would be SokothQultuq. For much of the game he's been what I would call a quiet observer. We've enabled that behavior for him because he is brand new to the game of mafia. It took until Day 3 to get anything concrete out of him. He suspected Glorfindel based on an overreaction, Long Con for trying too hard to convince people he was civ and being jokey, sig for being wishy-washy on Toasters, and JJJ for coming off as too helpful too soon. Day 6 he gave more reads, with DrWilgy bad, Glorfindel good, JJJ still a bad read, Polo as bad, sig good. Now he gives both JJJ and sig civ reads, sig because he can't quite find anything to accuse him of yet and JJJ because he doesn't think someone going as in-depth as JJJ could be bad.

Around Day 5 he finally starts mixing things up a bit, showing a little sass and resisted calls for him to make his amnesty claim but he eventually caved. He was in the brig Day 7 apparently for missing too many so say we all's.

His votes don't reveal too much. He missed the vote Day 1 and 2, which frustrates me and my spreadsheet. Especially the Day 2 lynch because Nutella was bad and we can't really judge where Sokoth stood on her. Day 3 he votes sideways on Jimmy, which is at least consistent for his player reads. Day 4 though he is early on board for the LoRab lynch. If the lore can be trusted and LoRab was a civ-aligned or anti-Cavil, then it would make sense for baddies to be early adopters of that train. He voted for DrWilgy Day 5. Some think there is something shady about him voting for Wilgy after Wilgy already claimed but given the claim plan needs a claimer in the lead to prove Toaster status, he's got the fallback of 'well I wanted to be sure' in case calling Wilgy's bluff meant lynching a human. He votes for DrWilgy again the next day despite the popularish theory that Wilgy is a good Toaster. Sokoth's Wilgy vote also made it a three-way tie, perhaps to try to bump momentum toward Wilgy instead of Glorfindel? A bit of a stretch given that very few were interested in Wilgy at all that day.

I'm letting this one percolate. I want to do a full ISO of him tonight since his post count is light. We gave him a lot of space early on. He has produced usually when asked or demanded. I get that he's new to the game but by Day 8 I would think he should be getting the hang of it.

Another round of technicolors, revised to include Dex and Vopatti.

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

DAY 7

Spoiler: show

AHL game is over. The team from my area lost.

Neutral reads:

ObscureAllure- She's been a little less consistent lately. It could be a baddie trying to build a plan on the fly but it feels mostly like old-school OA paranoia. Still on the civvie side of neutral.

Rabbit8- What are the odds that one feisty, animal-named player would replace another feisty, animal-named player? Zebra had a few ideas that I agreed with, whereas rabbit not so much. Still, there's a strange consistency between the two. Maybe it's the blunt tone they both wield. Rabbit's behavior today strikes me as someone who would rather egg you on into being wrong about him than spend half the phase defending himself.

Ricochet- His thoroughness makes up for some of his early game behavior. I don't remember him being so pugilistic before but I have a poor memory for these kinds of things.

S~V~S-Sure, she was right about Long Con as Cain but her back-peddling on the claiming issue hasn't faded from my memory. I also need to go back and look at her Day 7. Something about her vote for Glorfindel seemed funny but I can't remember why just now.

Vompatti would have been here too had he not gotten himself modkilled.

Linki: Not me. Given all the mechanics helping Cavil and his minions (rez ships, Final Five), having a second baddie team would seem to make the game too imbalanced for the civvies to win.

After feeding both of my daughters dinner, a little Sesame Street, bathing them both, and putting one of them to bed, I can finally focus on this game. And the NHL playoff game on TV. And the AHL playoff game live-streaming on my computer.

I'll be in and out for a bit while I catch up and post the rest of my reads.

As I feared might happen, coming off of Glorfindel's lynch, my other suspicions are either soft or in flux. Bear with me while I try to reason a few things out.

Looking at the player list, I know of a few players that I trust to be civ:

DrWilgy- This is based almost exclusively on my full-on conversion to trusting Dex over the last few days. He was one of Wilgy's strongest defenders. This makes me think the baddies got rid of him in order to open up some room on pursuing Wilgy. Dex seemed pretty confident in the lore that Wilgy's role is not with Cavil. There have been arguments over such lore but I'll trust the dead on this one.

Epignosis- It seems pretty cut and dry to me. He flipped and the lore suggests his role is civ-aligned. Plus he's been on the hunt and produced. I bet that dead note bashing him is from Nutella. I could see her trying something like that.

insertnamehere- Subbed in for Silverwolf. 'Nuff said.

JaggedJimmyJay- I have a similar affinity for JJJ that I do for Sloonei. I want very much to trust him because he is so darn good at what he does. I don't think I've seen him as a baddie yet and I've not gotten burned by him yet in a game either, making it hard for me not to trust him. With his change in approach for this game he has been accused of being Jimmy-Lite. That may be but I feel like Jimmy-Lite may still be Jimmy-Right.

Matt- He may be confusing and all over the place at times but he doesn't come across as false or mischievous to me.

Polo- I like his persistence and intensity through much of the game. It feels consistent enough to be pure.

sig- He's my softest civ read because I last had him as my #2 baddie. That whole non-lynch plus Gaius taking over has me thinking still. I don't see how a baddie could play a part in triggering those events. Call it a reluctant or cautious civ read. I just have trouble seeing anything else but civ for him given the circumstances.

My lunch break is over and I've got a mountain of work to do at the office (ah, the joys of a compressed, four-day payroll week!) so I have to leave for now.

So say we all.

An unpleasant night was had by all at the House of G. Don't go to bed angry- stay up and fight! Needless to say, I'm now both physically and mentally exhausted. It was all I could do to post the baseball stuff I do each week in the OT threads.

I was going to post player reads when the dawning of Rabbit Season made me do a partial re-read on him. I'll pick it up in the morning.

RIP Dex.

Spoiler: show

Ricochet wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Recruit team with kill? Game is broken, town is fraked.

Recruit team without kill? Sure, make that two ways of judging things differently, then. But then the angle of JJJ hunting nutella doesn't really matter. It was on Day 2 and JJJ could have been recruited at any point in the game.
Ah but what if the game has already broken a little on our favor?
Broken means that the game has a design flaw that makes it impossible for a faction to win, so I don't know what "broken a little" means.

G-Man wrote: I see all this discussion about two teams and recruitment and I wonder if there's a simpler answer. In this post, Golden the Coward says that our sorties for resurrection ships was triggered by indiglo mentioning them in the game thread.

Golden wrote:The event was triggered by indiglo, not timed, but given only one mission can be made every 6 hours, being there at the time of the event being triggered is not overly important.
That was very early into Night 1. Had she not mentioned them, we would have been looking at each other, saying 'derp,' and wondering why Toasters won't die when we try to lynch them. Who knows how long it might have taken for someone to trigger the sortie grid? A full-sized baddie team with this kind of protection would be at an insane advantage, so a smaller team makes sense if they have that lynch protection to balance out their smaller-than-average team size.
Honestly, if someone saying Resurrection Ship was the buzzword to trigger the hunt, I'm fairly sure anyone with lore knowledge would have duly brought up the idea.

G-Man wrote: I ran the numbers (because it's what I do) and we found six resurrection ships in clearing the grid. There are eight Toasters listed in the roles but two of them are the same model. So that's seven models plus the Final Five, which gives us 12 models in the game. What if there were two models assigned to each resurrection ship? We got one before the Day 2 lynch deadline, so maybe we got lucky and hit Nutella's resurrection ship just before she got lynched.
That would indeed have been quite lucky on our behalf.

G-Man wrote: The Final Five is another insurance policy that the baddies don't get taken out too quickly. We don't know how many are left but we know they can be lynched because the resurrection ships were all blown up and the grid search ended.

We also found and dispatched an indy role in Long Con pretty early on. We'll have to wait for endgame to learn what more that role could have done but martial law made it harder for the civs to win because it increased the number of Toasters we needed to lynch.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic but a small baddie team with initial lynch protection and a back-up group of members plus an indy role that makes it harder for the civs to win sounds pretty complete to me. Wouldn't adding an additional baddie team into the mix make the game even more difficult for the civs to win?

I have to get home for dinner. I'll be back with new technicolors and player reads before the night post. Given all the mechanics we've cracked and at least two likely baddies and an indy gone, I think we might be doing better than our host imagined possible.
I personally think it could adequately range from one mafia-team and a bunch of indies (Biblical-style) to two mafia-team and a few indies (GoC-style) or mafia & recruit / mafia & rogues etc.

Alright then, Captain Killjoy. Thanks for

Here are the revised technicolors:

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

DAY 7

Spoiler: show

Ricochet wrote:Recruit team with kill? Game is broken, town is fraked.

Recruit team without kill? Sure, make that two ways of judging things differently, then. But then the angle of JJJ hunting nutella doesn't really matter. It was on Day 2 and JJJ could have been recruited at any point in the game.

Ah but what if the game has already broken a little on our favor?

I see all this discussion about two teams and recruitment and I wonder if there's a simpler answer. In this post, Golden the Coward

says that our sorties for resurrection ships was triggered by indiglo mentioning them in the game thread.

Golden wrote:The event was triggered by indiglo, not timed, but given only one mission can be made every 6 hours, being there at the time of the event being triggered is not overly important.

That was very early into Night 1. Had she not mentioned them, we would have been looking at each other, saying 'derp,' and wondering why Toasters won't die when we try to lynch them. Who knows how long it might have taken for someone to trigger the sortie grid? A full-sized baddie team with this kind of protection would be at an insane advantage, so a smaller team makes sense if they have that lynch protection to balance out their smaller-than-average team size.

I ran the numbers (because it's what I do) and we found six resurrection ships in clearing the grid. There are eight Toasters listed in the roles but two of them are the same model. So that's seven models plus the Final Five, which gives us 12 models in the game. What if there were two models assigned to each resurrection ship? We got one before the Day 2 lynch deadline, so maybe we got lucky and hit Nutella's resurrection ship just before she got lynched.

The Final Five is another insurance policy that the baddies don't get taken out too quickly. We don't know how many are left but we know they can be lynched because the resurrection ships were all blown up and the grid search ended.

We also found and dispatched an indy role in Long Con pretty early on. We'll have to wait for endgame to learn what more that role could have done but martial law made it harder for the civs to win because it increased the number of Toasters we needed to lynch.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic but a small baddie team with initial lynch protection and a back-up group of members plus an indy role that makes it harder for the civs to win sounds pretty complete to me. Wouldn't adding an additional baddie team into the mix make the game even more difficult for the civs to win?

I have to get home for dinner. I'll be back with new technicolors and player reads before the night post. Given all the mechanics we've cracked and at least two likely baddies and an indy gone, I think we might be doing better than our host imagined possible.

Awesome night! I was right about Glorfindel, plus the Penguins and Warriors won. (modkill me if you must, Golden the Coward

but Curry4Life!)

I've got to do some reading and thinking today because my player reads aren't all what they were last time I posted lists.

Dex wrote:
G-Man wrote:Awesome first period! I recommend you all tune in to the hockey game if you're able. Besides, the Warriors game is only starting nowish and will probably still be on after the hockey game is over. It's been a real treat and there's still two periods to go!
Au contraire. That was a terrible fist period.

Awesome first period WAS awesome.

Second period was exciting as well. I'm fine with either team winning the Cup, but I'm pulling for Pittsburgh.

Golden wrote:By "The Warriors game", I assume you mean "The Thunder game".

Modkill could be on the line, here...

Oh come on. Win or lose, the headlines will focus on the Warriors. Either it's a miracle comeback by the team of destiny or a shocking exit after a record-breaking season.

Awesome first period! I recommend you all tune in to the hockey game if you're able. Besides, the Warriors game is only starting nowish and will probably still be on after the hockey game is over. It's been a real treat and there's still two periods to go!

I see Glorfindel is accepting his fate. No hard feelings, man. We all land in these sorts of impossible situations now and then. That's the nature of the game.

As I see no reason not to, vote = Glorfindel

Burning bridges on your way out is considered poor form.

I hope you're not serious about leaving this site. You write very well and I would love to see what a Glorfindel-hosted game looks and reads like. Around here there is a saying, "it's not personal, it's just mafia."

Epignosis wrote:For those who do not understand my post:

Day 1, Glorfindel proposed that green names were good and red names were bad. His theory.

Cavil, Doral, Boomer, and Athena were green names.

Conoy, Biers, O'Neill, and Six were red names.

Glorfindel is a Cylon, so the question is, which one is he?

He would not be claiming his own role to be evil, so that rules out Conoy and Six.

That means Glorfindel is Cavil, Doral, or Boomer.

Are any of those Cylons good Cylons?

All the lore discussion I've read in this game thread suggests no, unless I misread something. If he still believes his color/alignment theory to be true, then I would say it makes him either at least as misguided as he accuses me of being or a baddie who's been caught red-handed.

Glorfindel wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Glorfindel wrote:
G-Man wrote:Because now that he confesses to be a Toaster, I feel validated in suspicions of him. Early on he was asking questions about Toaster mechanics. That led me to believe he was one. If, in fact there are more than just one good one, his continued pattern of answering questions with questioms and indirect statements frustrates the hell out of me and leads me to believe he is not one of the good ones. If he wanted to convince us he's good, he'd have cut the proverbial crap a long time ago and started giving us direct answers. The fact that he only gives short, to-the-point answers when cornered and badgered to the breaking point speaks volumes to me.
G-Man, see... you've done it again... Still, there's enough in this post that gives me hope that you are not totally lost. I KNOW you think I'm bad and have done practically all game but I want to ask you to do something for me - for the good of the entire Town. You've stated a fact there in your second sentence. I understand completely how you've come to your conclusion (and you're still mistaken) but I challenge you to put aside what you think you know about this game and put yourself in my shoes. I know it's hard, but re-read what I said in my 'I am a Cylon post'. There IS another spin to be out on what you've pointed out there that you're missing. It might sound far fetched but it's the truth. I expect you'll still want to lynch me and I accept that but I've not given up hope that you can't see the truth.
Alright, Glorfindel, enlighten me on something if you would. You admit that you are a Toaster and you claim to be a good one when it seems that the number of theoretical good ones remaining are all but accounted for. You refer to my sentence about you asking about Toaster mechanics early on.

Please answer the following question in one sentence, preferably in 35 words or fewer, and with as few dependent clauses as possible:

Why were you asking about Toaster mechanics in the game thread?
I'm sorry, my friend - that is what I originally asked of you. You will find what you seek in your answer to that question. I would honestly love to answer that for you but I cannot.

Are you even trying to convince me not to vote for you anymore?

And when did he post that color/alignment theory?

Epignosis wrote:I wish I had seen this post earlier.

Glorfindel wrote:So Say We All!
indiglo wrote:
DrumBeats wrote:This whole are all cylons bad vs are only some cylons bad thing is interesting. Personally, I believe that only some cylons are against us and others may very well be on our side because 12 scum seems to be too many, especially with one reviving herself right now.

In order to get a more complete town consensus, I would like to hear every person's thoughts on what we are up against tonight. If everybody provides an opinion, we may be able to figure it out as a group, and we will also have things to look back on about this and maybe reveal more depending on how people flip when they die.

My opinion - Epi's Cylon role is a pro-human/town/civ role. So I definitely do not think this game is as simple a set up as humans vs Cylons anymore.
I think I can get on board with this. In one of my earlier posts, I referred to Matt's reference to the Cylons of different coloured font (i.e. red/green). It makes sense to me that the Mafia Team are those whose names are in red font in the index irrespective of whether they are Human or Cylon. Likewise, the opposite applies for those characters in the index whose characters are in green font - they represent the Town. I know that's a Mafia team of 12 members and yes, that's way higher than any game I've played before but thinking on it, why not? Frankly the profile pics of all those characters whose names are in red look pretty damn dodgy to me...
We know right off that this proposal is false, and I believe someone mentioned that the colors have changed as things have progressed, but let's run with it for now.

Cavil
Conoy
Biers
O'Neill
Doral
Six
Boomer
Athena

However, these are almost the original positions for the Cylons. Only Boomer is presently different.

Spoiler: show
Golden wrote:
Battlestar Galactica mafia

Humans

Admiral William Adama – Affectionately called the Old Man of the Fleet, Admiral Adama keeps the human race alive with his hatred for machines, his paranoia, and his cool head under pressure. Adama PMs the host each night with an address to the fleet. Adama is guaranteed not to be one of the final five.

President Laura Roslin – Laura Roslin was Secretary of Education, but became president after the cylon attack on the colonies. Though not religious, Roslin discovers that she fulfils prophecies in the scriptures about a saviour. At three predetermined points in the game, Roslin will receive prophecies that she believes will lead her to the salvation of humanity. Roslin is guaranteed not to be one of the final five.

Kara ‘Starbuck’ Thrace – Starbuck is a hotshot pilot, occupied mostly with taking out more cylons than anyone else. Starbuck tends to get the best of her opponents. She starts with negative two votes on each lynch and will survive her first encounter with cylons, but she cannot be resurrected. No matter how Starbuck dies, her role will be made public upon death. Starbuck is guaranteed not to be one of the final five.

Gaius Baltar – Gaius Baltar is a genius and was one of the pre-eminent scientists in all of the twelve colonies before the attack. He was also inadvertently responsible for enabling the cylons to carry out the attack on the colonies. Baltar has invented a Cylon detector, and with it he can check if someone is a Cylon each night. Baltar is guaranteed not to be one of the final five.

Lee 'Apollo' Adama - Lee is William Adama’s son. Lee is consumed with self-doubt and an inability to feel as though he lives up to his father’s expectations. Lee has a strong desire to do the honourable thing, but he often has difficulty figuring out exactly what that might be. Lee has a choice between two actions each night.

Saul Tigh – Saul is the Galactica’s executive officer. He always tries to do right by the Old Man, but he frequently fracks it up. Every night, Saul sends someone that he suspects to be a cylon to the brig. That person may not talk in the thread or vote in the lynch poll the next day.

Galen Tyrol – Tyrol is the chief mechanic on board Galactica. Periodically, Galactica will come under Cylon attack. As long as Tyrol is alive, he will hold Galactica together and attacks will have no effect. If Tyrol is dead, however, Cylon attacks on Galactica have a chance of causing the death of an occupant on the Galactica, and a small chance of causing the destruction of Galactica and everyone on board.

Karl ‘Helo’ Agathon – Karl ‘Helo’ Agathon – Helo is well known for his bravery, loyalty and honour. It is said of him that he always does the right thing. Each day, Helo will select one player to make immune from the vote. The identity of that player will not be public knowledge, and any votes cast against that person will not count.

Felix Gaeta - Gaeta is trusting and idealistic, and he sees the best in everyone. He is diligent and works hard, and considers it an incredible honour to serve under Admiral Adama. He is also something of a prodigy, but remains humble.

Anastasia 'Dee' Dualla - Dee is the voice people hear on the other end of the line, as she is the one who relays the Admirals orders to the viper pilots as they fight. Her voice brings them home. Once in the game, Dee can PM the host during a night phase and stop any human death during that night. If Dee attempts to use this ability unsuccessfully (that is, she does not prevent any human kill that night), she retains the ability until she uses it successfully.

Cally Henderson - Cally is a young mechanic in Tyrol’s engineer pool. Every night, Cally will search for the chief. If Cally finds him, he will get a nightkill protect. If Cally targets Boomer, she will shoot Boomer and Boomer will die. Cally can only target any given player once in the game.

Sam Anders – Sam is one of the colonies most well known professional athletes, as the star player of Caprica's pyramid team. Sam has a leg up on the competition when it comes to contests, Once in the game Sam may PM the hosts to end a contest and win the prize (he must do this before the contest ends). Once in the game Sam may PM the hosts to get a duplicate of a prize won by another person in a contest (he must do this either before the contest ends or within 12 hours of it ending). Any time a contest involves anonymous submissions where a winner will be judged, Sam may submit two entries.

Lou ‘Kat’ Katraine – Kat is a hotshot viper pilot but she is also a rookie, and Starbuck treats her that way. Kat wants nothing more than to take down more cylons than Starbuck does.

Brendon ‘Hot Dog’ Costanza – Hot Dog is another rookie pilot, who proves quite adept at taking out cylons and staying alive. Any nightkill aimed at Hot Dog will rebound onto a random cylon (excluding any unrevealed members of the final five).

Doc Cottle – Cottle is the best doc in the fleet. Cottle protects one player each night from nightkills.

Billy Keikeya - Billy is President Roslin's aide, and is incredibly loyal to her.

Tom Zarek - Zarek was a terrorist and activist in his younger life, and escaped the destruction of the colonies in a cell on a prison ship. Zarek is primarily motivated by his own political gain.

Ellen Tigh - Ellen is the wife of Saul Tigh, and despite her destructive ways and their broken relationship she still loves him deeply. When she has been drinking, Ellen is prone to fracking up. When Ellen casts her vote, it has a 1/3 chance of actually counting towards her target or the person above or below her target on the poll. Any vote she casts against Saul will not count.

Tory Foster – Tory is a savvy political advisor, who is focussed more on the result than on the ethics of getting there. Once in the game, Tory can PM the host during the day period and determine the identity of the person who will be lynched that day.

Romo Lampkin – Lampkin is one of humanity’s last surviving lawyers. He doesn’t much want to continue his craft on Galactica, but circumstances and a sense of duty see him standing up even for those who most others would think don’t deserve a voice.

Cylons:

John Cavil (number one)

Leoben Conoy (number two)

D’Anna Biers (number three)

Simon O’Neill (number four)

Aaron Doral (number five)

Caprica Six (number six)

Sharon ‘Boomer’ Valerii (number eight)

Sharon ‘Athena’ Agathon (number eight)

Secret role

[secret role] Might be human. Might be cylon. Might be stationed on Galactica. Might not. Who really knows.

So then, according to Glorfindel:

Mafia Cylons:

Conoy
Biers
O'Neill
Six

Civilian Cylons:

Cavil
Doral
Boomer
Athena

Glorfindel isn't O'Neill or Biers. For those concerned that Glorfindel is Six, that cannot be the case, for he would have been labeling his own role as evil (red). The same is true of Conoy. If Glorfindel is a green Cylon, which he speculated were the civilian Cylons, then he is Cavil, Doral, Boomer, or Athena, and he ain't Athena.

Aren't we operating under the assumption that Cavil is the head baddie? If so, none of this makes a darn bit of sense.

Glorfindel wrote:
G-Man wrote:Because now that he confesses to be a Toaster, I feel validated in suspicions of him. Early on he was asking questions about Toaster mechanics. That led me to believe he was one. If, in fact there are more than just one good one, his continued pattern of answering questions with questioms and indirect statements frustrates the hell out of me and leads me to believe he is not one of the good ones. If he wanted to convince us he's good, he'd have cut the proverbial crap a long time ago and started giving us direct answers. The fact that he only gives short, to-the-point answers when cornered and badgered to the breaking point speaks volumes to me.
G-Man, see... you've done it again... Still, there's enough in this post that gives me hope that you are not totally lost. I KNOW you think I'm bad and have done practically all game but I want to ask you to do something for me - for the good of the entire Town. You've stated a fact there in your second sentence. I understand completely how you've come to your conclusion (and you're still mistaken) but I challenge you to put aside what you think you know about this game and put yourself in my shoes. I know it's hard, but re-read what I said in my 'I am a Cylon post'. There IS another spin to be out on what you've pointed out there that you're missing. It might sound far fetched but it's the truth. I expect you'll still want to lynch me and I accept that but I've not given up hope that you can't see the truth.

Alright, Glorfindel, enlighten me on something if you would. You admit that you are a Toaster and you claim to be a good one when it seems that the number of theoretical good ones remaining are all but accounted for. You refer to my sentence about you asking about Toaster mechanics early on.

Please answer the following question in one sentence, preferably in 35 words or fewer, and with as few dependent clauses as possible:

Why were you asking about Toaster mechanics in the game thread?

Epignosis wrote:If Glorfindel is genuine and good, does that change anyone's thinking on DrWilgy?

A pro-town Glorfindel flip would force me to re-think a lot of things about this game and my ability to be effective in it. My pro-town leanings for Wilgy are dependent on my civ read of Dex. As long as he didn't give me reason to doubt my civ read on him, I'd be willing to keep on believing that Wilgy could be good.

Answers/responses in orange.

Epignosis wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
G-Man wrote:And now that I post my question to Epi I see he's no longer signed in.
Little kid's birthday party. I didn't mind two dozen screaming children. The hostess makes a mean Margarita.

G-Man wrote:A question for Epi, since I see him online. What are your thoughts on Rabbit right now? You suggested he was part of a save on Glorfindel at the end of Day 6. Have your thoughts changed at all? I'm running him through my technicolor analysis right now along with Glorfindel and Ricochet (since he was at odds with rabbit).
rabbit8 has been away for a while, but I have a good memory when it comes to mafia, and he strikes me as no different than himself, which, in this scenario, is important, because zebra was doing the zebra, by which I mean doing whatever zebra does with two extended middle fingers. That neither one has struck me as artificial in any capacity sits well with me. I realize that isn't particularly helpful, but I wasn't paying much attention to either.

My thinking that rabbit tried to save Glorfindel was stupid because I wasn't thinking in terms of rabbit being zebra. And Glorfindel didn't need saving anyway.
As I applied the technicolor treatment to zebra/rabbit, the word that kept popping into my mind was consistent. By my estimation, there is a very narrow tinfoil path for zebra/rabbit (zebrabbit? zebbit?) to be baddie teammates with Glorfindel:

1) Glorfindel has to be a baddie Toaster (this much I can swallow)
Why?
Because now that he confesses to be a Toaster, I feel validated in suspicions of him. Early on he was asking questions about Toaster mechanics. That led me to believe he was one. If, in fact there are more than just one good one, his continued pattern of answering questions with questioms and indirect statements frustrates the hell out of me and leads me to believe he is not one of the good ones. If he wanted to convince us he's good, he'd have cut the proverbial crap a long time ago and started giving us direct answers. The fact that he only gives short, to-the-point answers when cornered and badgered to the breaking point speaks volumes to me.

2) Rabbit and/or teammates had to think that Glorfindel wasn't going to claim out of nobility and they were trying to scramble to save him from himself (possible but very tinfoily)
That makes no sense.
I call this possible only because you'll see just about anything the more you play the game of mafia. For this to be the case, Glorfindel's teammates would have to feel desperate to save him against his will. Desperation is not something I feel that I've seen out of anyone yet, which is why I said this was very tinfoily.

3) LoRab was not a teammate and the baddie team worked to eliminate her (possible to see but I feel like most of the heat brought against LoRab was because Nutella's flip somehow made her look worse and teammate like, which some disbelieve now due to later discussions of lore and possible factions)
Do you think Lorab's lynch was a good one?
I don't know. Having never seen the show, I have to defer to the people who know the lore when it comes to this sort of thing. I'm not crazy about it because I don't want to get steered down the wrong thought process by someone's faulty recounting of show lore. It seems like there are enough people familiar with the show playing that someone would call out that kind of shenanigans.

The lore folk have made some pretty convincing posts on the possibility that #3 was civ-aligned since she revolts against Cavil on the show. Remembering the small baddie team setup of you Biblical game leaves me open to the idea of several Toasters being anti-Cavil / pro-town in this game.

I'll give rabbit a neutral-but-trending-civ read for now. I feel almost comfortable with his alignment after looking through my vote lists. Both zebra and rabbit mixed it up with Ricochet, which is strange but kind of consistent too. And zebra wasn't pushing the If-Nutella-flips-bad-BR-looks-worse case. Zebra went after LoRab her answers not being very direct in nature. In other words, zebra wasn't just taking an easy swipe; she went after substance or lack thereof.

And unless teammates honestly thought Glorfindel wasn't going to claim AND felt he was necessary to save, you're right- a save attempt on Glorfindel makes no sense. This makes me want to go back and take a second look at DrumBeats. What are your thoughts on him now?
Questions in yellow.

I would still lynch DrumBeats.

I need to take another look at DrumBeats. The Day 6 crazy isn't the only mark on his record. He got weird the day Nero died soon. Not necessarily a pattern but it doesn't seem wise to me to get weird around lynches that feel as important as that one did.

Epignosis wrote:
G-Man wrote:And now that I post my question to Epi I see he's no longer signed in.
Little kid's birthday party. I didn't mind two dozen screaming children. The hostess makes a mean Margarita.

G-Man wrote:A question for Epi, since I see him online. What are your thoughts on Rabbit right now? You suggested he was part of a save on Glorfindel at the end of Day 6. Have your thoughts changed at all? I'm running him through my technicolor analysis right now along with Glorfindel and Ricochet (since he was at odds with rabbit).
rabbit8 has been away for a while, but I have a good memory when it comes to mafia, and he strikes me as no different than himself, which, in this scenario, is important, because zebra was doing the zebra, by which I mean doing whatever zebra does with two extended middle fingers. That neither one has struck me as artificial in any capacity sits well with me. I realize that isn't particularly helpful, but I wasn't paying much attention to either.

My thinking that rabbit tried to save Glorfindel was stupid because I wasn't thinking in terms of rabbit being zebra. And Glorfindel didn't need saving anyway.

As I applied the technicolor treatment to zebra/rabbit, the word that kept popping into my mind was consistent. By my estimation, there is a very narrow tinfoil path for zebra/rabbit (zebrabbit? zebbit?) to be baddie teammates with Glorfindel:

1) Glorfindel has to be a baddie Toaster (this much I can swallow)

2) Rabbit and/or teammates had to think that Glorfindel wasn't going to claim out of nobility and they were trying to scramble to save him from himself (possible but very tinfoily)

3) LoRab was not a teammate and the baddie team worked to eliminate her (possible to see but I feel like most of the heat brought against LoRab was because Nutella's flip somehow made her look worse and teammate like, which some disbelieve now due to later discussions of lore and possible factions)

I'll give rabbit a neutral-but-trending-civ read for now. I feel almost comfortable with his alignment after looking through my vote lists. Both zebra and rabbit mixed it up with Ricochet, which is strange but kind of consistent too. And zebra wasn't pushing the If-Nutella-flips-bad-BR-looks-worse case. Zebra went after LoRab her answers not being very direct in nature. In other words, zebra wasn't just taking an easy swipe; she went after substance or lack thereof.

And unless teammates honestly thought Glorfindel wasn't going to claim AND felt he was necessary to save, you're right- a save attempt on Glorfindel makes no sense. This makes me want to go back and take a second look at DrumBeats. What are your thoughts on him now?

Adjusting the lynch poll to end tomorrow is fine by me.

@bea- no problem. It's easy for me to tackle it since I came up with the system. I can be a little overzealous with my data crunching.

Ricochet wrote:I'm here, though. What do you say of INH?

As I believed that Silverwolf was civ, so do I believe that INH is civ. Just because Silverwolf subbed out doesn't mean all the Ika-Silverwolf insta-read discussion flies out the window. Having seen it in a prior game, I have no reason or desire to doubt Ika's passionate defense of Silverwolf.

And now that I post my question to Epi I see he's no longer signed in.

A question for Epi, since I see him online. What are your thoughts on Rabbit right now? You suggested he was part of a save on Glorfindel at the end of Day 6. Have your thoughts changed at all? I'm running him through my technicolor analysis right now along with Glorfindel and Ricochet (since he was at odds with rabbit).

All of us seem to be preoccupied with holiday goingson. Is there any chance we could extend the day phase to allow for more discussion?

Bea, the purpose of my technicolor lists is to make it easier to spot things in the vote list. It may seems like a disaster at the Crayola factory at first but that's why I show two different formats of the vote list- one in vote order and the other grouped by vote recipients.

The biggest benefits I get from them are the ones that are easiest to see- gaps between votes for a certain player and clusters of votes for one or more players. For instance, Day 1 was very spread out and hard to read much into without other days to examine. Day 2 shows early momentum for Long Con followed by a few 2-players blips of action against Nutella, followed by and almost back-and-forth pattern between Nutella and Long Con votes. Day 3 has the huge early train for LoRab followed by the huge countertrain for Nero.

Spotting things like that help me dig deeper. Why did the thread seem to reverse direction so dramatically on Day 3? Well, LoRab claimed for amnesty somewhere in there. That explains the why and then I can dig back more for the how.

The technicolors also help me look for patterns or trends or other such strange or fishy behavior between two or more players. With a few days of voting, the data set is larger and harder to manipulate to sell a certain narrative. When a baddie gets lynched, we my lists make it easier (I think) to go back and look at their votes and see who they voted for and voted with.

I believe, after technicolor success in Biblical that baddies eventually give themselves away in their votes. It's not intentional but unavoidable for the most part. Maybe it's an early sideways vote to spread the totals around to cover for a teammate. Maybe it's getting stuck voting for one too many bad-looking civ lynches because they had to follow their faux-suspicions to the end.

If you think you're onto someone, you can test your theory by trying to write their narrative via technicolor analysis and fimd a way to weave it together to fit with the baddies that have already been lynched. It's harder this game because we're not being told if someone is mafia or not when they are lynched.

So say we all!

As per the Admiral's orders:

Epignosis: Civ. I'm willing to trust those knowledgeable in lore on this one and he has been on the hunt. The existence of two #8's makes sense for one to be good and one to be bad based on the lore that's been shared.

DrWilgy: Civ. I'm going to trust Dex on this one. He's been rising in my reads despite my hesitancy to trust replacement players. I'm still looking for the hint that a few people think they saw though.

Glorfindel: Mafia. My read on him (and his late claim yesterday) confirm to me that he is a Toaster. I think he is a bad one because of his unwillingness to provide concise and direct answers. Seriously, some of his posts are as convoluted and unhelpful as John Lennon's ghost.

Bea- I saw your post. I will get back to you on it this afternoon. Neighborhood yard sale day! I came in for a "water break." The neighborhood is still swarming with people.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'm still interested in lynching Glorfindel Day 7. Confirming his identity should yield clue on other players that we're talking about.

Linki: then which anti-Cavil Toaster is he, JJJ? We've got Epi and Wilgy (I'm still coming around on that theory as well). If we think the eight listed are split four and four, you think we've found the remaining three good ones?

My technicolor review of DrumBeats:

Day 1 he is the 2nd vote on Ricochet, which ties Rico with Epi. This is also the 12th vote of the day. In a normal game, it would be much too early for Team Cavil to know the identity of a good Toaster. We didn't even have a Day 0, just that opening decoding mission. I'll have to check the context of the vote itself but my notes say he speculated that Rico wasn't putting enough meat and potatoes into his posts. He backtracked during the night, saying he felt better about Rico after the Poking of the Wolf saga. Drum was also an early adopter of the Epi is good theory and believed that there were pro-human Toasters in the game.

Day 2 he votes last (9th) on Nutella. It could be seen as cementing Nutella's fate (put her up by 3) but the vote was also very close to the deadline, so it's possible that Nutella's fate was already sealed. This is the 'obvious bus vote' in his voting record if there was one.

Day 3 he votes 21st overall and 7th for Nerolunar. This is the same lynch where he proposed the idea of putting Nero ahead of LoRab since she claimed and was immune anyway. It was faulty thinking. Or was it? If you want to tin foil, keep in mind that LoRab was #3 and some have speculated based on lore that she could be a pro-town or at least anti-Cavil Toaster. If LoRab was getting scrutinized as a possible baddie and Drum's team knows she is not one of them, why not make an innocent mistake that possibly gets a human lynched and leaves an enemy Toaster as easy pickings for the next day? It's a bit reckless because it brought suspicion on Drum as well. But if we think there is no coordinated effort to save pro-town Toasters, then maybe it's a deliberate action the other way. That's a lot of tin foil to work through but that's the only way I see any strategy in what Drum did Day 3.

Day 4 he votes right out of the gate for LoRab. To be fair, she was the popular option, especially since she claimed for amnesty and spent the night not being shy of her non-human status. Given the speculation that LoRab's role could be pro-town or at least anti-Cavil, it makes sense for an pro-Cavil member to join the herd that day. This was also the day that Drum thanked Cain for the martial law decree. If there is a pro-town group of Toasters, the martial law decree made the game harder and longer for the civvies to win because humans would have to get rid of a lot more players. The pro-Cavil faction could be happy with this if they know or think they can identify the Toasters who aren't on their side and work to get rid of them first. During Night 4, he stated his belief that sig is bad and called non-claimers suspicious. Perhaps he knew there were anti-Cavil holdouts among the non-claimers?

Day 5 he misses the vote. My notes show he was suspicious of Wilgy, Zebra, and bea. At night, supports the view that Wilgy is bad and says he will be suspicious of Wilgy defenders if Wilgy were lynched and flipped #6. Off the top of my head I cannot recall all the Wilgy defenders that night but it became a significant point of conversation as well as a point of contention.

Day 6 he votes 16th overall and 4th for sig. There was a moment of confusion where people thought that Drum's vote tied sig with Glorfindel. Perhaps Drum even thought he brought it to a tie. He didn't though but Rabbit did not long after. He spent a decent part of his time that day suspecting Dex and Polo for defending Wilgy. The night before he questioned Polo's shift from suspecting Wilgy to thinking he was #6. Day 6 he also said he was weirded out by Dex's seeming knowledge that Wilgy was #2.

Overall, it's a little early for this much tin foil but you could piece together a few of the more plausible aspects to see how Drum is either anti-town or at least on the hunt for anti-Cavil Toasters. Take a look at my technicolors and let me know what you think you see for DrumBeats.

*Add me to the list of people who hold this view.

stupid phone

Linki: Ask a simple question, get five paragraphs

Polo wrote:
Dex wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:You keep saying anti-Cavil -- do you literally mean "not aligned with Cavil" or "on Cavil's team"? You called Glorfindel anti-Cavil too.
I'm trying to come up with replacement terms for civ and mafia, which I think are murky in this game. We have two sets of cylons, though; the Cavil faction (mafia), and the anti-Cavil faction (civ).

Glorfindel is Cavil faction.
Agreed.

Add me to the list who hold this view.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:There's definite potential for the baddies to have some kind of lynch immunity/prevention beyond the amnesty act. If it weren't for the Baltar election coinciding with sig's "lynch", I might suspect him even more than I did before.

Agreed. Sig was my #2 suspicion. It's very difficult for me to do a complete 180 on him but I am trying to keep an open mind. Glorfindel could have voted for sig to save himself but he did not. I'm unsure if that is just his higher-level nobility or trying to avoid bussing a teammate. Call me crazy but, given everything else we've seen out of Glorf this far, I feel more inclined to believe it's the former.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think the impeachment theory cannot work since Baltar is not in the original Presidential line of succession. An impeached Roslin would likely be replaced within that line, unless Lee Adama and Tom Zarek are somehow both dead.

And why couldn't that be possible with four people having been NK'd? If there is no one left in the line of succession (which was a short list to begin with), why couldn't someone else fill the power vacuum?

You say sig makes no sense as Roslin because he was so opposed to the amnesty law. I agree. So maybe Roslin died at some point after the amnesty law and sig took over but the other person in the line of succession was already dead. With a line of succession so short, the chances of becoming leaderless at some point are pretty fair. Given all the crazy antics we've seen so far, don't you think Golden the Coward

would have something in mind for such a situation?

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