The Syndicate

Mwa huh? I get a banner for making a suggestion? That’s even more inconceivable than when I won Turf Wars without signing up for the game itself.

Congrats to the Lifetime Achievement Award winners! Some very deserving names on that list.

DH- 2018 was your year man. Now that you’ve won more Sockys than Meryl Streep has Oscar nominations, are going to go to Disney World to celebrate?

Must say- the diversity in this year’s awards is beautiful.

My goodness, what a finish. Well done Speedchuck. While I am pleased as punch to catch both DDL and S~V~S as baddies, my spreadsheets failed to illuminate your evil nature. I’d have probably tinfoiled on Sloonei.

At least we kept you guys honest and made you earn it at the end.

This was fun! Great game hosts!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:35 pm Like, we should invent a "Worst Role Use" Socky just for me.

Mocky Awards: Coming your way in 2020!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:13 pm [quote=G-Man post_id=513902 time=<a href="tel:1549758431">1549758431</a> user_id=383]
My screenshots will still be correct even if I’m killed tonight. It may have seemed like vanity early on but I did it that way out of simplicity and to enhance usefulness after my death.

I’m not sure what this post refers to.
[/quote]


My spreadsheet screenshots all feature my name in a light shade of green, denoting my civvie status even before death. That makes them useful even after I’m dead.

Meh. Not what I wanted to hear.

My screenshots will still be correct even if I’m killed tonight. It may have seemed like vanity early on but I did it that way out of simplicity and to enhance usefulness after my death.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:41 pm Something else I want to note about the luna wagon, for context, is that I picked her name without a very big reason behind the choice. I had some suspicions on her, so it wasn't a "random" or arbitrary decision, but I did it more for the sake of spurring discussion on players other than DDL, rather than to condemn luna specifically. But then things just kind of stuck there. I briefly tried to shift to SVS and was greeted by crickets.

Make of that what you will. To me it suggests slightly that luna is civilian, and it's possible that one of the voters on her is bad.

Meaning S~V~S?

You just reached a townread on nutella based on the way DDL went after her. The Luna votes were you, Nutella, and S~V~S. If it’s not nutella, and you’re maintaining your innocence, that only leaves S~V~S in that scenario of yours, right?

Unless that was a subtle confession on your part.

My earlier analysis left out something.

If Sloonei starting the Luna train was the work of a panicking civvie, and Luna is a baddie, then I don’t see how Nutella nor S~V~S are her remaining teammate. It just seems silly to call attention to yourself to change votes so last-minute, only to be forcing a tie between baddie DDL and baddie Luna. A baddie flip for Luna would not have slowed down any suspicion on DDL. It’s wasted energy and the baddies don’t need to try that hard to play mind games that will fall flat.

My take on DDL-Nutella is wrapped in tin foil. On the surface, it looks like he picked a civvie to tunnel on and kept circling back to it as his fallback. This burned me once or twice as a baddie when my tunnel target actually got lynched and it became obvious that I didn’t have any real reads on anyone else.

He uses auto-sus as his bases and selects a few posts that seem “just like baddie nutella” and then he doubles down on it when Mac posted his long, supposed take-down of Nutella.

It could be that easy- DDL picked Nutella as an easy target, especially when she won as a baddie so recently. It could also be an attempt at a long-game soft-bus turned hard-bus. But if we lynched Nutella, would we have found his prolonged focus on her sketchy?

In the words of [mention]Epignosis[/mention], don’t get cute. This is either a hyper-cute long-game gambit on DDL’s part or it’s him settling on an easy target to manipulate people toward.

I wouldn’t put it past DDL to try some kind of overarching master plan scheme but I also have a hard time believing that the baddies felt any need to try very hard in this game until around Day 4.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:19 pm [quote=G-Man post_id=513881 time=<a href="tel:1549749328">1549749328</a> user_id=383]
Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

This one intrigues me.
[/quote]
Me too. Then again DDL’s lack of interaction with you intrigues me as well.

May we discuss DDL’s fixation on Nutella? Read through his ISO (it’s really not that long) and share your interpretations.

Maxing out the list with...

SPEEDCHUCK:

1) Responds to Speed’s question about lynch preference ( he favored Nutella and used Mac’s case to reinforce his tone read) on Night 3.

Making good time here! Onward to....

SABIE12:

1) Soft defense of Sabie based on her cautious meta established in a prior game on Night 1.

Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

M PLUS 7 / SLOONEI:

1) Only mentions MP in the context of wondering if my M shenanigans meant my Socky was for him.
2) Quoteless response to Sloonei re: better lynch ideas on Day 5.

My next review...

LUNALEE:

1) Tries to quash Luna’s sus of him looking for an easy lynch of someone who looks opportunistic by arguing that civvies look for opportunistic behavior too. WIFOM on Day 1.
2) Stunned by Luna’s “I look civvie because Enrique flipped civ” post Night 2.
3) Responds to Luna calling him out for cherry picking that post Night 2.
4) Explains his D2 EOD absence on Night 2.

Mentioning other players is part of the game. Here’s my breakdown on how many times DDL quoted, responded to, or mentioned the remaining living players:

G-MAN:
1) Ponders whether CBob & I have curses on Day 1.
2) Ponders if my M shenanigans have something to do with my Socky Award on Day 1.
3) Wonders why I was such a hot item on the D2 lynch poll on Night 2.
4) Wants me to elaborate after I list him as mafia.
5) Uses my gripe about lazy Sprityo train to vote for reywaS on Day 3.
6) Tries to side-step my suspicions of him on Night 3.

More spreadsheet fun, now featuring baddie red!

OVERALL VOTES:
DAY 1 VOTES: My fresh take in analyzing Day 1 is that Luna and S~V~S are not baddie teammates. Before S~V~S voted, there was a two-vote two-way tie between Enrique and Long Con (both civs). If S~V~S and Luna were teammates, there is absolutely no reason to take a two-way tie between two civvies and make it a three-way tie between two civvies and a baddie. Unless someone steps in it royally, you don't bus a teammate on Day 1. There is no benefit to disadvantaging your team like that.

Luna voted for DDL on Day 1 and was the only vote on him. That's plausible baddie behavior. So is S~V~S diversifying the mislynch options by making it a three-way tie between Enrique, Long Con, and Luna.


DAY 2 VOTES:
DAY 3 VOTES:
DAY 4 VOTES: Luna and Sloonei were consistent in voting for reywaS D3 and D4.

DAY 5 VOTES: S~V~S and Sloonei are consistent in not voting for DDL two days in a row. Day 5 also reemphasizes (for me) that S~V~S and Luna are not baddie teammates.

Sloonei starts the train on Luna. If you are baddie teammates and your third teammate is leading the poll, you do not try to CFD on another teammate in a MYLO/LYLO scenario. You bullsuit a case on a civvie in the hopes of stealing the win. Sloonei and Luna are not teammates.

Nutella was second on the Luna train. S~V~S was third. We've already established that S~V~S and Luna cannot be teammates. The Luna train was either the baddie team's attempt at winning the game by finding a civvie to lynch instead of DDL, it was or a pack of civvies panicking over DDL's lynch being "too easy" (and at least one baddie joining the fun to try to seal the win). It's too much effort for baddies to try to engineer a tie between two baddies. What's the point in working so hard at something that's just going to delay the end of the game? Neither Nutella nor Sloonei are teammates with Luna.

If Luna is bad, her remaining teammate is not G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, or Sloonei. If Luna is bad, then her teammate is either Speedchuck or Sabie. If Luna is civvie, then at least one of DDL's teammates may have voted for Luna.

If you suspect Luna, then you have to clear G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, and Sloonei.

If you suspect any of G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, or Sloonei, then you have to clear Luna.

Discuss! Please also review the spreadsheet picks and let us know what other relationships you think you can rule out.

Marvelous! We got one. No room for error though. I’m going to have some time tomorrow. I’ll revamp my spreadsheet and post some more screenshots. Now that we have a baddie in the mix, we can start stitching together scenarios of vote spreads and clusters. We can then read back through EOD’s and see which scenarios fall apart under scrutiny and which ones stick together.

Teammate behavior may be possible to find now, though the wording in the posts has me wondering about baddie BTSC. DDL was a specific role and aligned with the mafia, not just part of the mafia. I ran Outpost 31 with no baddie BTSC, so it’s possible something similar is going on here. I’m still going to treat it like normal mafia and assume teams for now.

I’m glad I’m not a complete dunce at this game.

My work-life balance is a one-way tilt this week. I’m voting for DDL, eating some dinner, and heading back to the office.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:16 pm G-man, that's a lot of data. I was sort of hoping you would share your conclusion from it.

Make your own conclusions and share with the class. If everyone doe it, we may find consensus and sort this thing out.

My goodness gracious, that was a beautiful save! Now I'm pissed off, so we're taking things to the next level of spreadsheet geekdom.

Standard Format Nice to put all the votes up there but tricky to analyze in its own right. Lots of mental gymnastics. Let's take it a day at a time:


Day 1: Votes are listed in alphabetical order. Do not try to infer intent from the order of presentation. This is just to show how many civvies/mystery folk were on each train. The far left column is who received votes. The rest of the cells show who voted for that person.

Day 1's chart isn't all that useful because things are a little too spread out. CBob and Nova complicate the mix with their unknown identities. Let me know what you think you see here. Lots of civvies picking up votes though.


Day 2: Four of the five people who picked up votes are guaranteed civs. Go back and read Day 2 again. Who seems all too relaxed through this guaranteed mislynch? It's unlikely all the baddies voted together, so think about who isn't colored in green and how those names being split the way they are make you feel about them.


Day 3: Same exercise. Both major trains are civvie. Who's too chill through all this? Who's rationale looks forced? Mind the vote splits. On a day when there's no risk, baddies don't have to be as careful with splitting but they also don't like bundling votes together too often.


Day 4: Based on your readings of Day 2 and Day 3, how do you interpret Day 4?


Spend a little time on this. We can still turn this thing around!

My vote stays on S~V~S to keep things spread out more. I support a DDL lynch too, I just find I can infer more from votes when they’re spread out more. Runaway trains stymie analysis.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:21 am Hrm. It's weird that it's not MYLO right now.

My thoughts revolve around the presence of some kind of indy role. There are still ten of us. If there are three mafia (my assumption for a game this size) and an indy, then that still gives us one more day. Today is critical, however, in determining if the civvies will have a chance to win. In my mind, we’re screwed if this lynch goes wrong. I’m something of an optimist in real life but I’m a tin-foiling pessimist when it comes to mafia.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:43 pm Who's supposed to get lynched this time?

Mad money is on S~V~S and DDL.

CBob was one of the ones I was considering as baddie-possible. The lack of a flip doesn’t help but I no longer have to worry about him, which is nice.

Meandering about town tonight for a few errands. If I die, you’ve got my spreadsheet to evaluate. You’re welcome.

If I live, I’ll expound upon the following points:

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] hasn’t triggered my usual auto-sus for him. For that reason, I suspect him. Many of his posts are short and to the point. There are just a few in his ISO of any considerable length. That suggests a cautious approach, which seems abnormal to me.

[mention]S~V~S[/mention] is the opposite. She’s gotten a little explainy, a trait seen more often when she’s bad. She likes to shut people down by poking right back. She’s a slick, measured baddie, who can all but talk you into self-voting if you’re not careful. She’s not displaying busted SVS tone yet though. She dropped her suspicion of me too quickly and she’s come close to using her perceived expectations of others’ meta to plant seeds in the minds of others.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] is my weakest read of the three. I have two others in mind as alternates for the third baddie but I want to see if either of them die tonight, thereby helping me along the way.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:41 pm Oh they were the leading vote getters I see

Made myself orange for Day 2 to signify the tie. Sorry for the lack of explanation.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]- I’m pessimistic from a numbers standpoint because we’re one mislynch away from making it all but impossible to win. To reach that point by mislynching someone with in-thread content to base suspicions on is one thing, but we reached this point by lynching someone who was absent and never voted. Sprityo’s lynch gains us zero information because we can’t go back and understand his posts or votes through a civvie lens. It was a lazy and convenient course of action. I wish RL had afforded me more time yesterday.

My contribution for the phase:




Sorry folks. Operation washer & dryer will rule my lunch break and evening. Tomorrow night is church night. These phases just end too early for me.

Masterful job, guys. Back after bathtime.

Mama Bear and Puff the Magic Dragon, splitting their votes up again? How convenient.

Sorry- no time for details before the deadline. I’ll elaborate in a little bit.

reywaS wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:45 pm whats the better option, gman? I'm all eyes.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:36 pm Mafia is:

@Dragon D. Luffy
@Kylemii
@S~V~S

Man O’Day! Are you kidding me? We’re taking the non-participant option on Day 3 after two consecutive mislynches AND down four confirmed civs? He better flip mafia or else it’s game over for the civs.

Mafia is:

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]
[mention]Kylemii[/mention]
[mention]S~V~S[/mention]

My apologies. Lunch break was devoted to looking up models and prices of washers and dryers.. I re-read Day 1. I don’t want to start any crazy trains, so I’m going to hold back on too much commentary until I’ve gotten through Day 2 as well.

Nobody makes me feel good, but a few of you make me feel weird. Nutella is the closest thing I have to a civvie read right now. I think she was suffering from recency bias against Epi. She leaned his way for quite some time but Epi’s flip makes her posts about Epi seem too forward to be from a baddie.

Many people declare their votes with either the vote tag or by mentioning that they are voting in the thread. There are enough votes, however, that did not come with some kind of clear, in-thread declaration, that I can't take my vote analysis and spreadsheeting up to the next level like I used to. I'm trying to piece Day 1's votes back together but I just can't get them all put in order. I'm just going to use tone reads and infer intent from voting history as it's collected. With four confirmed civvies down, it should clear up a few things but I'm far from a confident baddie read on anyone just yet.

Many thanks to the host for the extra 24 hours. I would have been at a party in the hollers, where cell signal is a myth.

Since this game is still a relatively short read, I’m going to give a re-read another crack now that we can interpret two more players as civvie. I’ll try to plot out the votes in order too. I still hate the fact that our polls don’t track votes in the order they were cast. It makes vote analysis less reliable and vote analysis is what I’m best at.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:31 pm Sup I’m here and don’t really know what’s been going on.

Methinks we're getting laughed at. Hard.

M Plus 7 and sprityo failed to vote both Day 1 and Day 2. They also both have just two posts each. That's frustrating as heck with the game on the cusp of Day 3. We had time to deal with at least one of them, but I think we're stuck dealing with their collective absence now (barring replacement).

Anyone else see anything worth noting in these votes?

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:24 pm Many moons have passed since I made a game spreadsheet. I'm going to go do that and see how it feels.

Most depressing, isn't it?

Many moons have passed since I made a game spreadsheet. I'm going to go do that and see how it feels.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:04 pm So what's the deal about Gman anyway? Is he acting more suspicious than usual? I'm not paying much attention to him other than the fact he is starting everything with an M.

Maybe my natural charisma is too disarming this time around?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:34 am My voting for gman is because hes very nonchalant about being okay with a civ being lynched as long as the game keeps moving and he just goes after people who barely participated so theres nothing to go on.

My nonchalance has less to do with this specific game and more to do with my general approach to the game of mafia itself.

RIP Enrique.

Congrats Rico! I hope he comes back to accept his award in person. He’s another person who’s been waiting a long time for some Socky love for his games.

reywaS wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:10 pm but you are a cool cat gman...i just am a rock star that votes on a whim and think that enrique train is bull shite

Makes no difference to me. I’d have liked to keep my vote on S~V~S but I’ve been dying earlier than I care to lately, so I did the “I want to live!” thing for a change.

The cool thing about this game is that, even if we lynch a civvie, we still get a Socky reveal. We need to get our collective crap together soon but at least we don’t have to just stew and be mad when we’re wrong.

If I am lynched, I’ll have to remind myself of that but it’ll still be fun when I die. Let’s just say I have a special guest doing my presentation for me.

Masochists

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:35 pm @Lunalee @G-Man why are you voting svs

My previous post was pretty straightforward, no?

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:53 pm My day just keeps getting better.

No clue on my availability tonight. I’m placing a vote on S~V~S for now over her initial insight into Enrique and LC. It smells like the kind of maligned meta arguments I’ve seen her and others use against me in order to sell a mislynch without looking obvious.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:52 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:13 pm I am struggling fam. Kill me plz.

I don't know what this is.

I have gone away for the weekend (and also have a bit of a cold) so I am struggling to participate and was requesting the Mafia to kill me which they didna do.

Mac, I tried that once (in all Joker memes, no less). It never works when you want it to.

My day just keeps getting better.

No clue on my availability tonight. I’m placing a vote on S~V~S for now over her initial insight into Enrique and LC. It smells like the kind of maligned meta arguments I’ve seen her and others use against me in order to sell a mislynch without looking obvious.

My day is going to be pretty busy but I should be able to do a full re-read between lunch and breaks. The deadline ends after the kids’ bedtime, so I might be around for EOD.

RIP nova. Congratulations DDL! Will all the winners’ names start with D this year? Oh, the suspense!