The Syndicate

Hey Cookie- do you remember what you wanted to say to me? I almost forgot about this post until just now:

Cookie wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
A Flyer on a Burned-Down New York Building

July 30, 1985

You have 23 hours to submit your PMs.

Seriously, that was horrible not being able to talk. I think that might actually be the first time I've ever been silenced. Of course it would happen when I can barely talk in the other game I'm playing.

Gotta say, at first I was worried when Scotty died and I was silenced that we were being played and someone was either setting Cookie up or controlling her. Then she voted for me and posted what she posted. Then it was pretty obvious she was bad. For future reference, Cookie, what you did is what's called laying it on a little too thick. Good effort up to this last day though! Hope to see you in games more often.
I have a response for this, however, I don't think I can tell you while the game is still going so remind me to respond to this when the game ends!

Oh, and my Night 6 Bernard message:

...was created in a bit of a rush, so I just Googled "watchmen bernard" and rewrote the following panels with a brief intro to mourn the loss of Joey:

Ricochet wrote:G-Man, I get that you didn't feel confident in reading people and, thus, focusing on trying to get yourself known to the world via your messages - it was easy for me to become very confident it's you entirely based on style (plus believing a Nite Owl might have lie detected your statements, once their roles flipped. LoRab in fact did, but then still "drummed" on you. boooo. )

My problem with them was that your suspects pool was too wide. As you noticed, players never believed Bernard could suspect himself in his posts (I never had an issue with believing this, though) and, until you finally said something of me too, they believed I was Bernard, not you, because you had taken shots at everyone else. I also got to work with that in my N9 puzzle. A messager should trust himself a bit more with reads. I think it might happen to help the civs more than lead them astray. MM, remember in Film when Bass would constantly read you bad (correctly) both in his Night messages and the thread? We were sweating too much to kill him.

Sorry if Puzzle 5 was too rough, in retrospect I overdid it with encrypting every letter of a bloody lorem ipsum fake text. But I expected you to spot the legible words and have it easier.

Did you even bother with Puzzle 8 after you received it along with getting night killed? That sucked, but the puzzle was also one of quickest and simplest I elaborated, so not that much of a loss.

As a data person, it sucks royally being the Chatty Kathy role. It also doesn't help that I've only played a few games here and don't know you guys like the back of my hand yet. Someone with a deep knowledge of other players' metas would be quite useful in that role.

I wondered about the X<----X---->X at the bottom of puzzle 5. I still tried to decipher it both shifting letters up and down. After I got five words in I all but gave up because it didn't decode to any English language words. The first three (Lorem ipsum dolor) gave me pause though because I knew I had seen them somewhere before. They looked like Latin but I never bothered Googling the phrase or I would have discovered the ruse. I never got in far enough to find the real words in the message. Sorry you spent so much time on it but I'm not sorry I gave up! :P

Now that I know it is filler text, I know where I've seen those words before. From 2006 to 2009 I worked in the public relations department of a company and I wrote the company newsletter. I used an auto-fill function that put those very filler words into my text boxes when I was working on my layouts!

I never got puzzle 8. My death probably prevented me from receiving it.

Ricochet wrote:-- G-Man says he was blocked Night 5, but who blocked him? The mafia blockers were both dead.

G-Man's catch-ups for pages 6-16 were also the most annoying thing I had to write in my log.

I assumed that nothing went through Night 5 because that video Epi posted was all silence. Maybe someone else can explain what happened there.

As for my catch-ups...

They were useful to me!

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Also lol at G-Man having himself as his main suspect the whole game.

I thought that if I tunneled on myself hard enough, some of you might figure it out. Oh well. In my experience, this kind of role (I call it a Chatty Kathy after the role I included in my Secret Mafia game) is often ignored by most players because you don't know if the player opining in secret has any credibility. Seeing as I am a crappy people reader, I knew that I wasn't going to be able to have Bernard say anything useful for the first few nights. That's why the Night 1 message was so all over the place (don't trust nobody, watch out for the quiet ones, keep an eye on the talkers). Night 1 was more for my amusement than anything else. In fact, most of his messages were for the lulz. I was so off this game due to RL dragging me down and making it hard to properly participate in the game.

I really let myself get into the character when I wrote up the posts and I wondered if anyone would assume it was me or just assume Epi dressed up my commentary.

Had I been lynched, I had this waiting in the wings:

Then I would have switched gears and spammed the heck out of the thread with a rezz campaign featuring this guy:

For those of you who don't know (shame on you!), the above picture is the character Andy Bernard from The Office. I would have made silly comments like "You know what this game needs? More Nard Dog!".

Ricochet wrote:I told you guys G-Man was totally Bernard. His posting style was so obvious, after getting accustomed to his dead ink monologues.

I didn't know at first if Epi was going to post my ramblings verbatim or not. Sure enough, he said I could get into the character as much or as little as I liked. I watched some All in the Family clips and fashioned my Bernard after Archie Bunker.

Epi- did you select that role for me or did I get it randomly? Even though I had a crappy game, being Bernard made me smile every time I got to slip into character and write my opinions.

Just about everything Epi posted was word-for-word:

NIGHT 1 (I loved hearing Epi read my words. The delivery wasn't quite what I was going for but these things happen):

Spoiler: show

NIGHT 2 (I was blocked this night, so I incorporated parts of it into later posts):

Spoiler: show

NIGHT 3:

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote:Jesus, Mary, and Joseph you guys! You trying to give me a heart attack or something? We go from poll option shenanigans one day to everybody waiting to the last minute the next. Gimme a break already!

I see we got a new player in the mix. Nice to meet you juliets- now get to work! We can't afford to sit around holdin' hands and singin' Kumbaya while you catch up. We're coming up on Day 4 after all.

Congratulations on finding a few new people to pick on but I got a knuckle sandwich with your name on it if you take your eye off of G-Man and Long Con. Ain't it convenient that they both vanished for most of the day that led to new suspects? Out of sight, out of mind, if you know what I mean.

Speaking of the new suspects though- I'm keeping my hands off of Elo's goodies. She may know how to decorate a cake but something tells me her secret ingredient's scum. Scum I tell ya! There's a chance some of you might be right about her and Cookie being buddies. How do ya like that idea? A broad that makes baked goods and a player named Cookie being teammates. Now that's irony!

And, you know, that MetalMarsh fella still gives me the heebie-jeebies. It takes a special kind of special to vote for yourself on a day like Day 2. Death wish much? Not sure if he's scum too or just a whack-job for the looney bin.

I got one more name for you rainbow warriors to consider- Russ-uh, Russ-uh, Russkie Fink-wad- there it is. Makes an awful good impression by catching up and posting commentary but then misses the vote? On top of it all he comes out and says if he ain't around Day 4 he deserves to be lynched. Fake guilt if I ever heard it.

*sighs*

Things ain't lookin' much better right now. That Rorschach fella's gonna start coming after the folks who voted for Golden and DharmaHelper. I feel bad for that Dragon kid. If it weren't for the mark on his head, I'd say he's goin' places. Tell you what though, that Rorschach better stay away from my customers or he's gonna meet my new security system. Yep, my news stand is now protected by Smith & Wesson but I ain't tellin' ya where I keep it. That's for me to know and...

Epignosis wrote:

It is now Day 4. You have 24 hours to lynch someone.

NIGHT 4:

Spoiler: show

NIGHT 5 (Blocked again- this post would have suggested the dirty bet via Bernard. Instead, I wound up mentioning it in the thread on my own):

Spoiler: show

NIGHT 6:

Spoiler: show

NIGHT 7:

Spoiler: show

NIGHT 8 (The final installment. I'm glad it got posted even though I died.):

Spoiler: show

I'll have to look back at all the names I suggested. I recall initially including Russ just to pick on his name. Go figure!

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I thought you were Baernard for a while because, for a very long time, G-Man mentioned every player except you.

Also lol at G-Man having himself as his main suspect the whole game.

Also I used the @Rico because I felt like I was relying to what you had just said.. Er... whatever, my mistake.

Hee hee. Dragon, would you believe me if I told you I was trying to get you killed by the Inmates?

I suspected you of being baddie/indie so I tried to avoid talking about you in my Bernard posts to make them think you were Bernard. The longer you lived, the more I thought you might be one of the Inmates. Oh well.

Ricochet fleeced me. I was wary of Russ when you guys went into that final lynch because Dragon just seemed too easy but Russ fooled me all the way.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Ugh, the Elo debacle. Yeah, that was a mistake. It was a gambit, really, since I thought I was soon dead meat, people were finding my noncommital and floppy behavior suspicious, and I couldn't get any luck with tracking at night. N1 I track Scotty, he dies. N2, no result, I thought, 'fuck'.

Finally we had luck with Cookie the night right BEFORE I got lynched, but I was silenced and couldn't even hint about it.

Poetic justice after lynching a silenced Elo, I suppose.

For the record, the reason I was playing particularly washy was because I knew, as a tracker, I would eventually have good information. I just never got it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:No, we never tracked Elo. I really thought she was bad and was willing to pull a gambit -- if I was right, then boom, my tracker partner and I were still both alive. If I was wrong, then it gave me another night to check, since otherwise I likely would have been lynched D5.

I tracked juliets N3.

Scotty tracked me on N4.

So you can see why I was frustrated.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I didn't even consider a genuine possibility for why G-Man was so sure.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:- Did G-Man actually have info on Eloh? Was the bet a dirty one? lol

Heh. MP, you can remove the signature regarding our bet if you wish. I made a dirty bet with you. I had just found out Night 4 that Elo was Joey. Elohcin went in alphabetical order: Night 1, she said she wasn't Bass; Night 2, she said she wasn't Cookie; Night 3, she said she wasn't Dragon (okay to skip DharmaHelper because he was lynched Day 3); and Night 4, she said she wasn't G-Man, skipping over herself.

I had been waiting for Joey to skip a name because that would mean Joey was that player. Sure enough, the day I knew Elohcin was innocent was the day MP07 decided to go all guns blazing on her. Had I had another day to work with, I could have come up with reasons for Elo to be trustworthy. Having been peed on by MP07 in Economics, though, I knew nothing was going to stop him. Thus, I decided to knock him down a peg by taking him up on his rhetorical bet. It was a dirty bet all the way but at least I got to re-write a little House of Pain:

G-Man wrote:I'll spam your ass like Rob Soloway
If you vote Elo, I'm looking your way
Word to your mom- my spreadsheet's the bomb
I got more rhymes than BoB's host Dom
And just like the Prodigal Son I've returned
Anyone betting with me- you'll get burned
'Cause I got stats but you ain't got none
If you come to battle bring a shotgun
But if you do you're a fool, 'cause I duel to the death
Trying to step to me you'll take your last breath
I got the skill, come get your fill
'Cause when I place my vote, I vote to kill

Fun game, Epi. It was a rough start for me but I had fun down the stretch. Go everyone who didn't kill me!

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Also those lists you're making remind me a lot of a similar thing Golden 2.0 did by the end of Economics. Ofc this is not evidence, but it's interesting.

You're absolutely right- it's not evidence. It is pure theory. I did a lot of it toward the end of Economics too. My tin foil theories just came in pictures. :P

Also, I posted all this now because the wife and I are taking our daughter to ZooAmerica tomorrow with my in-laws. There's no guarantee that I'll be back by the deadline, so I'll probably have to vote early tomorrow morning.

linki: Really? I could have sworn we lynched you. I know I was itching to for most of the game. Anyway, the rest still stands. I'm throwing theories out there.

Why I Am NOT The One To Lynch:

-While I have been intentionally cryptic and mysterious at times, I have been extremely honest when need be.

-My gut call on needing to protect DH from being lynched on Day 3 was 100% correct.

-If you haven't noticed my signature, my spreadsheet was 100% right on Elohcin not being an Inmate.

-My gut call (albeit it too late) on LoRab Day 7 was 100% right.

-While I admitted to trying to avoid Rorschach's list for much of the game, I took a stand and put myself out there by voting for MP07 Day 6.

-I've made myself a little too suspicious and visible to have any hopes of winning as an Indie. (Yes, I realize that is WIFOM but at this point, we're down to 'who's WIFOM is the least believable?')

Why Russtifinko May Be The One To Lynch:

-He's basically a Ricochet-lite this game. He's taken a few more stances, proposed a few more theories, and been just aggressive/suspicious enough to avoid the Inmates' crosshairs.

-He too managed to avoid Rorschach's list until Day 7.

-He had been discussed by one or two players as a suspicious character, giving him the right balance to play all but right up the middle all game long.

-He's got civvie cred for voting for two out of the three Inmates but does that cred matter anymore now that it's Indie season?

-He's got enough of a theory worked up on one or two players to get him through to the end via mislynches (assuming he can't use a NK).

Why Ricochet May Be The One To Lynch:

-He's been talking the same kind of sense that got Long Con and DH killed, positioning him on the civvie side of everyone's suspiciometers.

-Until LoRab's lynch, he hadn't been part of a majority vote. Perhaps he was ducking Rorschach until reasonably certain he was out of play?

-He hasn't really said or done anything all game that has raised anyone's alarm bells.

-He's going for the "but he looks too clean to be a threat" approach.

Why MetalMarsh89 May Be The One To Lynch:

-MM89 is a tough egg to crack in general, so he may be using his oddball meta as cover for necessary oddball Indie behavior. As an Indie, you sometimes have to do odd things. Unless he gets on the trail of a baddie early or someone holds a vendetta against him (or unless he's killed for the lulz), he's a prime player to be kept around by a baddie team because he will usually look suspicious enough to merit keeping around for a mislynch.

-MM89 seems to have a track record of voting for himself, which weirds some people out. His Day 2 self-vote could have either been playing for the WIFOM (no baddie or indie would do such a thing!) or, as an Indie, he realized his chances were slim and he would look worse for voting someone else who he hadn't expressed much or any suspicion of. He may also have been voting himself because the odds were already stacked against him. Day 2 was weird though.

-He stays away from voting for people that ended up getting lynched. Two of his votes were the only vote for a player that day. He never talked about avoiding Rorschach's list until Day 7. Perhaps that is what he was going for all along. An Indie role would see that Rorschach is going to have his hands full as it is trying to dispatch other player on his hit list. Why put yourself on that list if it can be avoided? Perhaps he is waiting for confirmation or a strong sign that Rorschach is dead before voting majority.

-He's played a weird but safe game for the most part. He hasn't gone after anyone hard core and he's avoided taking too bold a stance on anything. In other words, he's playing this one just a hair to the suspicious side of straight up the middle.

Why Made May Be The One To Lynch:

-In Economics, Golden the Coward

benefited heavily from subbing in for a baddie player that left a voting history with a lot of gaps in it. We sorted out that the silencing patterns indicated that Made was not an Inmate but a voting gap provides a lot of cover for an Indie role too.

-We gave so much time and leeway for both TinyBubbles and Made to catch up that now there is really no time for Made to prove himself. We're all out of Inmates and there's very little of his posting and tone to look at to reach a truly informed opinion on him. He could be using his status as a total guess to his advantage. We probably would all rather vote for someone tomorrow based on more data and observation than what we've got on Made. It's very difficult to try to reconcile behavior between two (or in this case, three) different people.

-What he has posted has been very sensible and favorable- exactly how an Indie role needs to perform at this stage of the game.

Why Dragon Might Be The One To Lynch:

-He's been dead wrong about everyone he's vote for except for Sloonei on Day 1.

-His style in Economics contributed to continued suspicion of him, eventually leading to his mislynch. He also got curb-stomped as an obvious baddie in Guess Who. If he was given an Indie role this game, he would certainly approach the game differently. His confidence suggests that he is a very smart person and player of the game. Having no reason to doubt either, Dragon is the kind of person who learns from his mistakes. Having made a few, he's bound to have taken his game up a notch or two.

-Elohcin said early on that she felt that Dragon was legit because he seemed more relaxed than the Dragon she observed while hosting him in Guess Who. At least one or two others seemed to agree that Dragon seemed calmer and more poised this go around. Perhaps that's because he has to rely on only himself to get that winner's badge.

-He's kept himself just suspicious enough to merit the Inmates keeping him around for a non-Inmate lynch. He benefited from his own misguided hunting because the Inmates never felt threatened by him.

-Several players have expressed suspicion of him before or as they were on their way out.

Speak softly and maintain a potent spreadsheet.

Civilian Roles are in green.
Watchmen Roles are in blue.
Inmates are in red.
Players with their names struck out were NK'd.

Made subbed in for TinyBubbles, who subbed in for Bass.

Spoiler: show

Use the data as reference with what the next series of posts I make.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Moloch isn't exactly what I'd call a red herring. He's a retired supervillain.

Spoiler: show
Here's the story. Ozy wanted to get rid of Manhattan, because Manhattan is omnipotent and could easily stop Ozy's plan if he wanted to. To do that, he gave cancer to a bunch of people who had interacted with Manhattan, to make him believe his radioactive body was giving cancer to people (which was a lie), and make Manhattan run away to Mars in shame, while Ozy put his plan into motion. Moloch, being a supervillain who had faced Manhattan in the past, was one of those people, and was hired by Ozy's company for that (a very shitty job lol).

The Comedian discovered the plan then went to interrogate Moloch to find out more about it. Ozy found out about it and killed the Comedian. Then Rorscharch went to investigate the Comedian's murder and ended up interrogating Moloch too.

So Moloch is more of an unwitting pawn than anything.

Right but he was retired. He wasn't a red herring in the comic books.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I don't see the inmates having anything to do with Moloch, either story wise or gameplay wise.

Ozymandias could do, and at least story-wise it makes sense. Though I don't know how that could be implemented gameplay-wise.

I'm trying to figure out how Moloch would act. Which is hard since we don't know his exact wincon or his MO. Do you guys think he would want to help catch BF as fast as possible, or would he want to stall the game while he works on something else?

Considering the Inmates needed Moloch dead to win, I'm pretty sure Moloch would want them out of the way two unless he has a secret NK protection up his sleeve. At the same time, if Moloch is legit a LMS, Moloch wouldn't care who was lynched so long as it wasn't him. But look at how Epi lists the role:

Epignosis wrote:Moloch (1)
???
Win Con: Last man standing...maybe.

Edgar Jacobi / Moloch the Mystic
*Secrets*

That "...maybe" has me wondering. I don't think we can get around spoilers anymore because the game is on the line. If Moloch was a red herring in the comic books, then maybe he's a red herring here too. He's made to look like a villain in this game because his death is part of everyone's win con. If the real bad guy was one of the Watchmen, then maybe we can win the game with Moloch still alive. It's all very complicated and I'm honestly a little bit lost. My spreadsheet doesn't point to anyone in particular at this point. If we're looking for Moloch or Ozy, then I don't know where to start because I can see a way for anyone of you five to be the last person we need to lynch. I'll post that later.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Made wrote:Actually tho, how does one hunt and indie?
If you wanna hunt an indy, ya gotta think like an indy

DharmaHelper wrote:It took you folks that long to avenge me? Really?

Bitch, we avenged you Day 4. Silly dead players! I guess just because you eat brains after death doesn't mean you still have brains.

Epignosis wrote:
A Flyer on a Burned-Down New York Building

July 30, 1985

You have 23 hours to submit your PMs.

Seriously, that was horrible not being able to talk. I think that might actually be the first time I've ever been silenced. Of course it would happen when I can barely talk in the other game I'm playing.

Gotta say, at first I was worried when Scotty died and I was silenced that we were being played and someone was either setting Cookie up or controlling her. Then she voted for me and posted what she posted. Then it was pretty obvious she was bad. For future reference, Cookie, what you did is what's called laying it on a little too thick. Good effort up to this last day though! Hope to see you in games more often.

To be fair to the southern states, because snow accumulation is so rare, many municipalities don't purchase vehicular plows and salt spreaders and the ones owned by state DOT's are so few and far between that an inch of actually is crippling because they have no way to remove it, making the roads unsafe. We northerners just like to tease them because what is a disappointing snowfall to us (1") is debilitating to them.

Here I go again, doing my thing...

Day 1

Spoiler: show

Day 2

Spoiler: show

Day 3

Spoiler: show

Day 4

Spoiler: show

Day 5

Spoiler: show

Day 6

Spoiler: show

Day 7

Spoiler: show

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I'm pretty sure I'll never be God's gift to anything when it comes to sports.

Also something tells me that guy's parents forced him to go to your country. Otherwise he wouldn't be that bitchy. I actually spent the entire year in UK wanting tos ee snow, and bitching because there wasn't enough of it.

When I was a kid it would snow every winter. Not so much anymore (but the last two winters have been doozies). The blizzard of 1993 was amazing- we had four feet of snow and built a giant snow cave in the front yard. There was so much snow that people had to push and shovel it off their roofs to prevent roof collapses. We lived in a ranch home, so my dad and uncle could safely jump off the roof into the snow in the front yard when they were done.

The blizzard of 1996 was fierce too. Not quite as much snow during the 3-day blizzard but we got pelted almost all January long with ice and snow. It built up so much that this happened:

It had been a pedestrian bridge since Hurricane Agnes and they still haven't replaced the missing spans.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:75 is not even cold, come on.

But I have to go out of my country if I want to see anything below 40.

Also I'm having to use google to convert units here because you guys keep insisting on using stupid units.

When I was in high school there was an exchange student from Brazil in a few of my classes and he complained from October to early May about the temperature. Winter was the worst though. He was borderline indignant that our climate saw temperatures below freezing. He also thought he was God's gift to soccer just because he was from Brazil. It was nice putting him in his place a few times during gym class.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:You people from cold countries who can't stand the heat <shakes head>

Sorry, just kidding. I hope you are doing well, Cookie.

Yeah, and you sissies from tropical countries amuse me when you bundle up as soon as it drops below 75 degrees and 50% humidity.

In all seriousness though, where I live we get both the summer heat and the winter cold. I always laugh at the southern states who freak out over half an inch of snow and can't handle anything below 45 degrees.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:One thing that pings me, reading the Watchmen wikia, is

Spoiler: show
how Moloch spends the whole story being manipulated by Ozy. He's a retired supervillain at that point and doesn't actually do a thing.

What if Epi has lied to us and Ozymandias is the one we should be trying to lynch? While Moloch is just a decoy?

I hate spoiling myself but I had to look. That could explain the heading:

Epignosis wrote: Moloch (1)
???
Win Con: Last man standing...maybe.

The r's mean that player is on Rorschach's list. There should also be on next to my name, Russ, and Ricochet after the last two days, leaving only Made and MM off his list.

*G-Man runs to update spreadsheet*

*spreadsheet growls for being neglected*

*G-Man feeds data to spreadsheet*

*spreadsheet nuzzles G-Man affectionately*

Made wrote:Yo, does anyone know what alignments Elo came up as? marathon reading atm.

Here is a snapshot of part of my spreadsheet. The rest is classified. (inside a spoiler tag because it's a big pic and that chews up data for phone peeps)

Spoiler: show

Well I'm glad you guys suspect me still or else I'd start to worry about getting NK'd!

Sorry to see you go, LoRab. It was nice playing a game with you again after all these years. Had I realized sooner that I was the last person remaining with any extensive playing history with you maybe I could have argued on your behalf. Then again, I had to mow the lawn tonight, so I was short on time.

Cookie also misses the vote and Made speaks, suggesting only one person being silenced. Glory! This game is messing with my head.

While I think I remember it being in LoRab's nature to defend herself until she's blue in the face no matter what, Cookie's posts felt like she was just frustrated- frustrated of being on her own in a new land, defending herself from strange, new people. I'm also trusting my spreadsheet on this one. I see MM missed the vote. Frustrating.

I'm sorry, I'm lost. Who is claiming/hinting at what now?

Dragon just nudged into first place on my list. Pondering...

Russtifinko wrote:
G-Man wrote:I'm going to have to think on this and decide between Cookie and Dragon. My spreadsheet is telling me that LoRab's Day 2 vote was too attention-drawing for a baddie. Indie perhaps, but not a baddie.
You keep bringing up this spreadsheet, and it actually seems like a damned good one. Anything else from it you can share?

And LoRab, it's not making any assumptions at all. DDL was asking whether people think Bernard would have named himself, not saying that he did. Anyway, I'm not gonna put words into his mouth. If you don't get what he was saying, you should either ask him or read the exchange again.

Clearly I don't know how to read you. It's our first game together. You seem bad to me. If I'm wrong, help me get it right so we can win.

My spreadsheet is mostly just paranoid about Made/Tiny Bubbles/Bass because Golden the Coward

used a stretch of missed votes and a substitution to fleece us in Economics.

My spreadsheet also clears Scotty of being Big Figure unless the details of Epi's Day and Night posts cannot be trusted.

Neither MetalMarsh nor Made/TinyBubbles/Bass have voted for anyone who has been lynched. By that I mean that none of the players they have voted for so far have been lynched:
MM89: D1=Niju (NK'd); D2=MM89 (Alive); D3=No Vote; D4=LoRab (alive); D5=Dragon (alive); D6=No Vote
Made et al.: D1=Scotty (NK'd & rezzed); D2=MM89 (alive); D3-6=No Vote

My spreadsheet also suggests that Rorschach is dead because he hasn't killed anyone on his hit list.

I'm going to have to think on this and decide between Cookie and Dragon. My spreadsheet is telling me that LoRab's Day 2 vote was too attention-drawing for a baddie. Indie perhaps, but not a baddie.

Russtifinko wrote:G+Man, yes, the exclamation points are supposed to be question marks. I hadn't found the correct button on the keyboard yet.

At least you've shown you were consistent with your MP suspicion. However, you still severely misrepresented what went on at the end of yesterday's poll. You were the last vote and you knew it, and now you're acting like it was some major shock that two people were blocked and an absentee player didn't vote. THAT'S what you said was disappointing, not the result.

And I just had a thought: you said MP probably made a fool's bet, knowing he'd lose because he was bad, and looking dumb would make him seem more civ. I think maybe you made a dirty bet. Itäs a win+win for you: you get the huge victorious sig, make MP look silly, and get to say to the thread: "hey look, I was protecting civs, guys! I can't be bad!"

You're also making up stuff about a silencer probably being gone to throw shade at MM, when every indication is that both silencers are alive and well. You're looking more and more like BF to me.

Do others think all this is weird, or am I alone here?

DDL, the picture doesnät matter as far as the game. It's just an idiom.

Linki: LoRab, on your point to DDL, he wasn't trying to eliminate the people Bernard named from suspicion. He was trying to figure out who Bernard himself was and eliminate that player from suspicion.
And Rico, your last post is exactly what I was thinking.

I didn't know Tiny Bubbles was going to miss the vote. How could I know that? Him missing the vote is nothing more than logical conjecture. No, I think the result is disappointing, thank you. I know what I think in my head. You don't. With one Inmate left, there's not much to learn from the order or placement of votes. Watch:

1) Dragon: Casts the first stone because he thinks he sees overwhelming evidence on MP07.
2) Scotty: Thinks he's cracked how Cookie has navigated the game and her back-and-forth with him only makes him more certain.
3) LoRab: Calls it a gut vote after a comment or two makes her go

4) Ricochet: Came into the day suspicious of Dragon- their back-and-forth makes him more certain.
5) Russtifinko: Thinks she's been coasting and on defense too much; doesn't want to vote a silenced player.
6) Cookie: Flips from slight civ read to baddie read and doesn't want to vote a silenced player.
7) G-Man: Keyser Söze sleuthing and he's enough of a jerk to vote for a silenced player at this stage of a game.

The two votes that stand out to me most are LoRab's and Cookie's. LoRab said she would hold her vote until the end but didn't. She actually did cast a self-preservation vote by adding a second vote to Cookie when she herself had zero votes against her. On a day where at least two votes would be missing, it was the smart choice. Adding a second vote on MP07 would look bad for someone under suspicion. Cookie seemed to flip-flop on LoRab and, for lack of a better word, flail around a bit with her posts.

Unfortunately, it doesn't mean anything about either of them. Either of their behavior could be explained by either of them being Moloch for all we know. It's time for the long game approach. If we're hunting for Big Figure, then we need to take who we suspect and make sure we can explain it through their votes and their actions. If we're just "baddie hunting" for Big Figure or Moloch, I got nothing.

Also, I'm not making stuff up about the silencing aspect of the game. I'm just thinking out loud because sometimes my paranoid ideas actually lead me in the right direction.

LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote: Also, LoRab probably didn't pay much attention to this, but all of Bernard's messages were presented according to the theme on the Day/Night post, from being recorded in a video (during Ozy's cycle) to taking the shape of an investigative report or something (?) (during Comedian's cycle), a note or letter (during Silk Spectre's) and finally the Manhattan broadcast just now. So yeah, it's from Bernard, alright.
Actually, I did notice that. I notice small details. It's sort of my thing. That and twirling.

I might not post in the way y'all are used to on this forum, but I really do actually pay attention.

I honestly did not notice this. Maybe it's because I'm not familiar with the source material. Not sure if I should be

or not.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:"Pin down"?

Still don't know why you said that.

Close but no cigar.

And now for something completely relevant:
Did anyone look through my posts regarding the votes? I tried to include any mentions of who each player voted for. Quite a few people looked good. I'm curious if anyone thinks better or worse of any other players because of those posts.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Dude, I didn't get whatever pun you thought were obvious enough that everybody would get. Deal with it.

I don't want anyone to tell you what it meant. I want you to figure it out for yourself. It's all about context.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man, are you planning on explaining that image you posted?

Reading over all that, I reach the following stances on the remaining players (this one's for you, MP07!):

G-Man

MM89
Ricochet

Made/TinyB/Bass
Russtifinko
Scotty

Dragon
LoRab

Cookie

VOTE #4: Ricochet

Spoiler: show

Takes some time to review and mentions his thoughts on most players, including Dragon:

Ricochet wrote:Updates:

TinyBubbles - hasn't played one bit. I have nothing to work with. If she's landed a bad role (BF or Moloch), it'll be a desolate endgame if we lose. Based on Bass' performance, still inclined to call it slightly civ.

Cookie - no change. Offered more reads and ideas in the meantime, out of which the interesting thing I got was her idea of LoRab's vote for ika mirroring a potential bussing of an already toast teammate, the same way espers bussed Sloonei when it was half clear he'll get lynched; that, combined with the defense of voting in self-preservation, can constitute a bit of blending. She's [Cookie, that is] a bit more comfortable handing out civ tags than I personally am, but fine, at least there's something to take note of her views on everyone else. Her top current suspects, assuming a vote would materialize from them, are LoRab (ok), MP (she said she won't vote for him, though) and MM (she only found two strange things in his gameplay, yet is putting him at the top? sounds a bit comfy). Keeping a close eye on her.

DDL - no improvement from previous read, in fact I actually feel worse about him. He ended up D4 calling MP scum and ISO'd the hell out of him on N4, but the next Day it all kinda vanished. He acknowledge a bit of his ISO was inaccurate, but was that really enough to take the pedal off him? I don't think it was ever clear, if so. States several times - in real time with MP's case on Eloh, furthermore - that he doesn't find Elo to be Big Figure, only to return and find MP's and Scotty's arguments convincing. Nothing inherently bad with that, since I myself found some of those angles interesting indeed (plus Eloh's whole gameplay truly awful), but this feels too flexible and non-committal, compared to the DDL that hunted and challenged hard on his own. (Golden, D2; DH, D3; MP, D4) I don't like this. Considering a vote for DDL today.

G-Man - no change, I think. Also, check Scotty for a bit more speculation on him.

LoRab - Hasn't been really into the game since D4, when she mostly focused on defending herself and getting herself out of being lynched. I don't remember hearing a suspect from her apart from G-Man the first three days. Oh, you prefer sticking with your leads, rather than being in the loop with others? "Frankly dear..." No change from what I already wrote about her. I'm sorry, but just like with Eloh (even if she was good), you will seriously have to tell how am I supposed to trust LoRab. I'm feeling she's completely detached from the main events and it only makes me more wary. I wouldn't mind voting her today.

MM

Day 1: 2nd vote for Ninja (Ninja at 2, all the other eventual wagons not even commenced)
Day 2: self-votes because he's MM and AWOL (first vote of the Day as well, will end up in a tie with Golden and survive)
Day 3: misses vote
Day 4: 1st vote for LoRab, on her being opportunistic and tunneling with her votes (first vote of the Day as well, LoRab will end up with three votes, tied with Cookie, ika will get lynched with 5)
Day 5: only vote for DDL, on his Moloch speculation and profiling him as Moloch (you guessed it, first vote of the Day)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - allocates an "ike" emoticon to him; admits voting alongside Sloonei, but for simple reasons of voting anyone; later comments on LC's theories of Eloh being Sloonei's teammate; defends himself against Scotty by not actually defending much and agreeing his vote followed Sloonei's (WIFOM planting?)

espers - allocates espers a "mole rat" emoticon; absolutely nothing else
ika - recommends to him to vote LoRab
Read: Enigma. Earlier I thought his banter and fluffing was coming off baddish, but it's hardly a tenth of the stuff he usually pulls; he's far more detached than that. His lack of confrontation with the field, as well as total lack of interaction or read on the confirmed Mafia members (whether distancing or not), doesn't bring in mind the baddie profile I had of him, either. His only semblance of a real case was on LoRab, but then he didn't seem to care about it anymore the next Day. The only pattern I could speculate on (tin-foil-style, let's say) is that his acknowledging of his D1 being close to Sloonei's would be WIFOM planting, and that his suggestion to ika to "simply vote LoRab" could be dastardly buddying (although ika never paid attention to him, so it's probably just banter). His latest speculation is that DDL is Moloch, because it fits the profile of a dormant baddie who hunts a lot to look good. But wouldn't the angle of a dormant Moloch who doesn't do anything also seem plausible? His dismissal of G-Man's suspicions on him, openly saying he doesn't care one bit if he'd get voted by him, could also be notable.
I have no idea where to place MM - yeah, bet you've never heard that before - I'm not too sure he could be the last Inmate and his detachment makes me think the odds are: 60% he's just MM, 30% he's Moloch, 10% he's - yeah, I'll say it* - an unlynchable** Manhattan who also gives no fucks about what happens (MM could have rezz'd Scotty to amend for the D1 banter they had; or for the lulz).

*this is pure speculation, please treat it as such; I've checked with Epig before to see if I'm allowed to make such a specific speculation; if you find it unplausible, think back to Death Note (if you've played it); **I'm not sure Epig's deist views of designing a mafia game would allow for an overpowered, unlynchable Manhattan, but still...he was overpowered and unkillable in the comics and the Watchmen, as far as it's shown, are fairly designed up to lore

Russtifinko

Day 1 - 2nd vote for G-Man, finding his wording strange (Sloonei at 4, Ninja at 3)
Day 2 - misses vote
Day 3 - misses vote
Day 4 - 1st vote for ika, for behavior (tied with LoRab)
Day 2 - 2nd vote for MP, to keep binary lynch close (brings MP at 2, with Eloh at 3)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - indirectly considers llama's points on him having merits (Sloonei's defensiveness being off-putting)
espers - considers his D1 vote the most suspicious, but find there's need to develop his view further; then finds him "above-board" for content; finds him safe vote for D3, although based only on his stated suspicious (which he considers not to be much); D4, keeps espers as mild suspicion; then (at Scotty's inquiry), considers him top read; votes ika for behavior; profiles last teammate as somebody who didn't buss espers on D3, but did on D4
Read: I'm not getting any strong bad vibe from browsing his posts, especially since he got more engaged in the game - he's going deep into reading, relying on gut and meta, participating and challenging others with reads etc. - but some of the interaction above is spotty, just like with many others. He consented to the general view on Sloonei, finding his defensiveness off-putting the way llama put it, but he focused otherwise on Eloh and G-Man and voted late for the latter, in a lynch train that was hardly relevant (despite G-Man's actions being a hot topic). It sounds reasonable, but it's also susceptible to a tin foil version of planting a suspicion on Sloonei to look good, then act in different directions. Just like with Bass, I will be absolutely floored if Russ would turn out to have been part of a surviving Mafia (alongside espers) which totally slacked off almost two Days in a row. His "mild suspicions" on espers, that failed to materialize into a vote until D4, have been brought up before and it was what he started getting some heat for. His early vote for ika technically makes him look good, but since ika totally bombed his exit, it's still believable that he would have been bussed without hesitation. His defense for Eloh makes me feel better, overall. As I've said, I'm reading a Russ who is putting a good game since he got into it for good. I can't decide at the moment how strongly, apart from the shoddy details mentioned above, I suspect him.

Scotty

Day 1 - Votes Eloh (vote hardly relevant within the eventual dynamic of the lynch: Sloonei currently at 1, Ninja at 2, G-Man also having a vote)
Day 4 - 1st vote for Cookie (ties her with LoRab and ika)
Day 5 - 2nd vote for Eloh, finds her very likely Big Figure (Eloh at 2, DDL at 1)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - wasn't pinged by his game; anything else is in context with other reads or discussions

espers - inquires him on reads; talk about D0 results; the rest is in context with other reads, discussion, other players' reads on espers; agrees the replacement is very suspicious; adds ika to his lynch options, based on MP and Russ reads
Scotty is hunting and failing so far, something that he himself acknowledged after the Eloh fail. I'm naturally inclined not to suspect mislynchers right off the bat (being a grave one myself, usually) and most of Scotty's hunting doesn't look to be superficial, tunneling or fake to me. His lack of Sloonei ping and odd voting got him in trouble after D1, to which him being NK'd is a strong indicator that it couldn't have been a sacrifice within the Mafia team. That being said, his shallow surface direct reads on the confirmed Mafia members, compared to always bringing other players in context with them, is pretty undesirable. I will say this, I will basically flip barking mad if Manhattan screwed up and resurrected a baddie Scotty (either Inmate or Moloch), because it feels like a defenseless situation to deal with. His death and rezz doesn't exonerate him from the odds of being bad, but I cannot say I'm getting bad vibes from him right now. I'm noticing a lot of focus from him on G-Man and I'm wondering if there's not something subtle about it; he seems to try to find a bad angle on everything G-Man is doing, even that D3 vote situation, which I personally still can't wrap my head around as being indicative of G-Man being bad - this may be slight tunnel-ish, but I makes me wonder all the more if Scotty isn't aware of something.

In case you're wondering where's the read on MP, hol' up for a few more hours. I'm probably risking again to drag my reads (and my sanity) near to the late deadline hours, but in case I'll feel that'll be the case, I'll focus right away on a shorter version and provide it.

Spends part of his day discussing theories (agree/disagree with parts of them) with a couple players. Then this after Dragon responds to the above post:

Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:DDL - no improvement from previous read, in fact I actually feel worse about him. He ended up D4 calling MP scum and ISO'd the hell out of him on N4, but the next Day it all kinda vanished. He acknowledge a bit of his ISO was inaccurate, but was that really enough to take the pedal off him? I don't think it was ever clear, if so. States several times - in real time with MP's case on Eloh, furthermore - that he doesn't find Elo to be Big Figure, only to return and find MP's and Scotty's arguments convincing. Nothing inherently bad with that, since I myself found some of those angles interesting indeed (plus Eloh's whole gameplay truly awful), but this feels too flexible and non-committal, compared to the DDL that hunted and challenged hard on his own. (Golden, D2; DH, D3; MP, D4) I don't like this. Considering a vote for DDL today.
Alright, my vanishing from this game the past few days can be explained by my decision of playing two big games at once, and the burnout I had because of that. My head was literally hurting from too much mafia friday night, and yesterday I took a break. This is my fault, but it doesn't mean I'm bad. That said, I'm now a dead man walking in the other game (I survived the lynch because of abilities but they're gonna lynch me again), so now I'll be able to dedicate my attention to this one.

My D5 was probably the sloppiest thing that I did in this game. I had a feeling MP and Scotty were on to something there, but they weren't, and I was stupid for tunneling on that. I believed Eloh could be Moloch, and I decided to confirm that, and I guess my theory that Eloh could have bussed both of her teammates (and thus also being possibly Big Figure) was a case of confirmation bias. I wanted to believe Eloh was mafia, and when Scotty and MP gave me a reason for it, I elaborated on it myself and used it to justify a vote.

From now on, I'm gonna vote based on my own suspicions, and screw everyone else.

That said, I think Eloh's silencing last phase was intentional, and might have been a strategy to pull an easy lynch on a player who otherwise could have saved herself from the lynch. Although I don't blame anyone but myself for my own vote, I could see that being an intentional play by either MP or Scotty. For instance, it's interesting how MP picked the very phase Eloh got silenced to tunnel on her, also changing the playstyle he had kept for most of the game. Though yes, they could have legitimately fell for the trap while the silencer was staying in the sidelines watching everything. Actually, I'm almost sure that's what happened to either MP or Scotty, though it could also have happened to both.

I finally finished catching up, and now I'm gonna look at some ISOs and post a list of suspects. Stay tuned.
Uh, no, not your vanishing as a player, your case's vanishing. (Again, just like LoRab, I don't criticize players for "vanishing".) It felt to me like as soon as MP pointed out some inaccuracies about your ISO and you agreed it invalidates a few stuff and said you'll recheck it, it ended up nowhere. You simply said it didn't invalidate the rest of your case and you're keeping him in check. To which my question, if you've called him Mafia a Day before and made ISO hardly invalidating this conclusion, why the downgrade to "still a suspect"?

You make some fair points about having referenced Eloh as potential Moloch but not Big Figure, so I'll look back over your posts, although I'd still say your vote post and reasoning was based on her actually being Big Figure and bussing both her teammates. I didn't get the "maybe Elo is Moloch and I'm fine with that too" impression from that particular post, only from your explanations right now, which is of course a bit in retrospect.

Asserts that MM has been silenced based on forum behavior:

Ricochet wrote:MM has been silenced, he's applying the Roxy method of posting in every other section to signal this.

Mixes it up with Dragon a little bit more:

Ricochet wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Uh, no, not your vanishing as a player, your case's vanishing. (Again, just like LoRab, I don't criticize players for "vanishing".) It felt to me like as soon as MP pointed out some inaccuracies about your ISO and you agreed it invalidates a few stuff and said you'll recheck it, it ended up nowhere. You simply said it didn't invalidate the rest of your case and you're keeping him in check. To which my question, if you've called him Mafia a Day before and made ISO hardly invalidating this conclusion, why the downgrade to "still a suspect"?

You make some fair points about having referenced Eloh as potential Moloch but not Big Figure, so I'll look back over your posts, although I'd still say your vote post and reasoning was based on her actually being Big Figure and bussing both her teammates. I didn't get the "maybe Elo is Moloch and I'm fine with that too" impression from that particular post, only from your explanations right now, which is of course a bit in retrospect.
I've been consistently suspecting MP since I made the first ISO on him, if that's what you wanna know. I took a detour on day 5, but I'm probably voting him today.

"Still a suspect" is not a downgrade. Nobody can get more suspicious than that. Because I can't know for sure anyone is mafia, so the best I can do is call them suspects.

The Eloh case was pretty sloppy, though I believe you should look at my dialogue with MP and Scotty about it if you want to understand what I was thinking.
This is downgrade I meant (or sensed)

Dragon D. Luffy end of D4 wrote:Yes I do have some nerve. I'm doing that because I think you're mafia. If later you flip civ, I'll apologize for everything. But now I don't think you'll flip civ.

Dragon D. Luffy end of D5 wrote:
That said though, I still suspect MP. For all I know he could be whatever of the 2 baddies Eloh is not. LoRab is still on my list too, I haven't forgotten her.
Your dialogue with MP and Scotty feels like it's pointing straight at the switch between dismissing Eloh as Inmate and embracing the viewpoint.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Guys, Elo is the last mafia. I'm sure of it. She's taking advantage of the momentum there is to vote for me, based on what DDL has been pushing, in order to lead a lynch on me. Her vote on D1 for Sloonei was clearly after seeing how Epi's vote succeeded for him in Guess Who?, and her sloppy distancing from Sloonei was real.

In fact, if you lynch Elo today and she comes back civilian, I implore all of you to lynch me immediately thereafter.
I'm almost completely sure Elo is not Big Figure, because it would have required her to sacrifice both of her teamates, and I don't think that's an optimal play to do.

She could, however, be Moloch, based on her behavior, which I agree is really fishy.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:@Scotty

But two sacrifices? With votes on both of them? Forget the opinions, look at the votes.

That kind of play only makes sense if you think you can gain enough cred to survive till the rest of the game. Do you think Eloh came even close to doing that?

I could only see that as possible if she thought espers was doomed and decided to make a risky gambit, upon realizing her faction's likehood of winning was shit anyway. While the Sloonei sacrifice, at that point, was seen as a safer move, with two other members left. Still, it sounds far-fetched.

Scotty, do you think Elo is a baddie, or you think she is Big Figure? I want to know what you think. Do you thinks she is more likely to be Big Figure than Moloch?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:MP, calm down. I knew you'd be pissed by the NO U point, but I had to point it out.

I have a question for you about Elo. Don't you think Elo's votes are way too risky for Big Figure, specially considering she would be sacrificing both of her teamates?

I'm asking those questions because I'm way more interested in hunting Big Figure now than Moloch, so I want to know what you guys think.
Also, "more interested in hunting Big Figure now that Moloch" and voting Eloh accordingly doesn't quite equate with what you've said earlier now that you "believed Eloh could be Moloch, and I decided to confirm that, and I guess my theory that Eloh could have bussed both of her teammates (and thus also being possibly Big Figure) was a case of confirmation bias".

Asserts that both MP07 and MM have been silenced:

Ricochet wrote:
Scotty wrote:I also really want MP to weigh in here at some point today. I'm attempting not to tunnel, but I'm about to put my hand in the Cookie jar and go past the point of no return.
Both MM and MP have posted in every section of the forum but here, which I've recalled to have been a tactic in the past to signal you are silenced.

Either both of them have been genuinely hit by the two silencers or one or both of them are bullshitting us.

More talking about the silencings:

Ricochet wrote:But serious thought, now. This is likely MP's second time being silenced, if it's genuine (he didn't confirm D2, but we all assumed it was obvious) - incidentally, this could be MM's second time as well (he hinted at being silenced D3, I think).

If Derf did, his intentions are pretty clear, he probably suspects MP is Mafia. Or retribution for Eloh. ([bantz]Or he wanted a quieter Day. [/bantz])

MP doing it to himself is not out of the question. MP doing it to himself and being BF is also not out of the question. I recall Epignosis being lynched in Hardy Salty Kipper after he silenced himself too many times - the civs rationale was why would Mafia keep silencing him instead of NK'ing him, if they can't stand him; and it worked!

If MP is civ and got silenced by BF, he [MP] did a pretty shit job the other night by saying "I have every intention of considering literally every player as the last mafia tomorrow". That doesn't create any kind of window of who would want to shut him up. He pointed a bit at Russ, plus had Cookie, LoRab and G-Man top of his updated list, but who knows, completely inconcludent.

Asks for other people's input on Dragon's Day 5:

Ricochet wrote:Does anyone have an opinion on DDL's D5? Or defense of D5? Or overall mix of hunts and gameplay? I feel his rebuttals are on a very thin line between genuine and having enough room to come up with competent explanations. Between him and Scotty as, let's say, mislynchers, I feel better about Scotty than DDL, even though DDL scored Sloonei on the first day. Plus, he's somehow still my gut read for Moloch.

Makes a note on MP07's desires for discussion and brings up who he recalls as MP07's suspicions:

Ricochet wrote:Compared to MP, who left a "let's reflect on everybody" note before being silenced that is of no use to figure who might be pleased to not have MP's vote in the poll, if BF silenced MM, he had his eye (and votes) on LoRab and DDL, on the only occasions that he got serious in the game.

Offers his top suspects:

Ricochet wrote:Well, it's one hour left and, realistically, I think five more votes to be made (I'm counting out the silenced, because if they faked it but do show up to vote, they pretty much commit suicide, and TinyBubbles, who is nowhere to be seen). Six with Tiny.

How about we put our top choices on the table? I'm very torn between my first two

- DDL - out of all the hunters, I feel least good about him
- LoRab - out of all the players, I feel least good about her
- third probably Cookie, based on today

Doesn't waver on his suspicions even as the deadline looms:

Ricochet wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Scotty wrote:Whether or not this lynch works out for us, I'm kind of interested to see who tries to pick me apart, since if Rorschach's still alive, he's gonna have to try.
Ey?
I'm attempting to whittle down who my watchmen reads are for when we can catch Morlock (if he's still alive), and if we make the right decision and kill Big Figure tonight.

Rico, where are you leaning right now?
DDL tbh. I'm more drawn in by how everything seems in place with his game (the hunting, analysing, focused play), yet it makes me feel less good by the day. One good first Day, then two bad hunts he contributed to significantly, a murky D4 (I can't even remember how committed he was to LoRab being bad, since he ended the Day being pinged to scum level by MP) and the switchy D5 (having all the premise, propensity and ISO backcheck to stick strongly with MP, but ending up agreeing with the Eloh case on an angle that he wasn't focused on or confident in). Plus he's MO is looking for intense bussing (in BF's case) and detachment (in Moloch's case), but what if it's the other way around and the last Inmate worked in different ways and Moloch is hunting and civ-looking to survive the longest and find comfort in cleaning up the players via lynch?

linki: I meant dropping that self-preserve intention, Russ.

And he votes Dragon.

VOTE #5: Russtifinko

Spoiler: show

Comes out swinging with thoughts on several players (LoRab is among them):

Russtifinko wrote:Hi all! Back from my trip and have read up. Posting what's immediately on my mind, and then I have to get my life back in order (e.g. shower, laundry, etc.). I will be around to talk most of the evening, even if I'm a bit in and out.

First, based on their posting in other threads, I fully believe both MM and MP are silenced today. It would be impossible for MP to not post if he weren't, and I don't think MM would say absolutely nothing, either.

LoRab, all we've seen from you for days is defending yourself. I get that you follow your own path, and you say you're involved, but the fact of the matter is you're not offering a ton of help right now, and for me the more you write huge defenses without saying much else, the worse you look. Who do YOU think is bad? Do you think the players accusing you are bad, or simply misguided civs? Do you think espers' baddie companion bussed him yesterday?

I'm still on my "Cookie is probably actually a newbie" line of thought, so I doubt I'd vote there today. Again, I was leaning civ on Bass/Bubbles. However, now that she's not been active since joining and there was no kill last night, she looks a lot worse to me. As others have pointed out, there are possibilities for a sent kill to not happen, but they seem fairly limited.

I'm still really torn on MP. If he's a baddie, he's doing a masterful job of having a reply to every single charge leveled at him. As I said before, some of his reasonings seem TOO tight. But I just keep coming back to whether I believe that a lone MP would be so ballsy on the Elo case. I think I'm leaning a slight no on that right now, but I waffle.

G-Man is a bit of a question mark to me as well, and I kind of have him lumped in with LoRab as "people who are hard to read and haven't really done much baddie hunting lately".

I wouldn't lynch MM today. I'd still like to see more from him, but I was leaning civ previously and I'm gonna stick with my gut on a day he's silenced.

Oh! And LoRab, why so interested in Rorschach's list? Even when Rico said you were on it?

LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
LoRab wrote:Does anyone have a Rorschach list handy?
DDL (Golden, DH, Eloh)
Cookie (Golden, DH)
LoRab (Golden)
Scotty (Eloh)
MP (Eloh)
Do you have a complete list (including people already gone)?
Linki: I do agree with LoRab that Scotty seems to be putting an inordinate amount of trust in Ozymandias, who may not have any info anyone else doesn't have.

And G-Man, if MP had done that, it would be one of the ballerest baddie plays of all time. I know he is very good at being bad. I just can't decide if I think he's quite THAT good.

Unafraid to mix it up with one of his suspects:

Russtifinko wrote:
LoRab wrote:Meant to add.

@Russ: You seem to neglect considering that either of those players could fake being silenced.
Bit testy, eh, LoRab?

You are in substance correct, even though the tone might actually make me more suspicious of you. I failed to read the post with actual content you wrote earlier. In my defense, I skimmed because the previous two posts were walls of text that were all defense, which didn't interest me. Fool me once and all that. Anyway, my point here is that instead of jumbo defense posts, talking about what you think with the time you do have for mafia would actually improve my view on you. I'm sure that goes for others as well.

However, your point about the kill PM likely NOT being missed, because 2 people appear to be silenced, is a really good one. It makes me less suspicious of Bubbles, although I still really hope she comes back.

And you're right; I did neglect to consider that they would fake being silenced - on purpose. In MP's case, I think it is literally impossible that he could do so. His appendix would probably explode. In MM's case it's possible, but he also really likes to talk, and I don't see a huge benefit to him to fake it here. Pretty risky in case two people really HAD been silenced - then we'd know that one of the 3 not talking was faking. Therefore, if he's faking it then he's most likely Moloch or Big Figure, because that would mean Big Figure didn't send in a kill PM. So that would be either Bubbles missing it, or MM not sending it in to set her up. It seems pretty unlikely to me, especially as I'm leaning civ on MM.

First indication of vote direction:

Russtifinko wrote:Scotty, are you still planning on voting Cookie? You said you were waiting for MP to chime in so he'd have a chance to dissuade you, and it seems pretty clear he won't.

Again, I'm anti a Cookie lynch.

G-Man wrote:Tiny Bubbles logged on today and yet no posts here. Tiny needs to come up big today or I will be very suspicious.
So this does actually bring up the small possibility that Bubbles was silenced, which to me would mean MM were faking. I'll be very interested in who says what after the lynch.

Right now I'm leaning LoRab for my vote, for what I see as a somewhat coasty style and outsized reactions to being brought up. I could probably be convinced to vote MP, but as I said, I'm still a little waffly there.

States an unwillingness to lynch the silenced players:

Russtifinko wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Long Con wrote:Host: Can The Comedian use his nightkill on himself, securing his own win?
Except for, well, certain rare exceptions, I do not allow self-targeting, ever. And even if I did, Blake killing himself would not be enough to secure his own win.
So unless this is one of the rare exceptions (which I doubt), he doesn't allow it.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Linki 2: And why wouldn't he be able to be silenced twice by one person? In general, games here have a "no double targeting" rule that applies to consecutive nights only. So silencing MP D4 and D5 would be illegal, but D3 and D5 would be allowed.
Oh, I think you're right. The rule says "twice in a row".

So MP doesn't have to be faking it to be BF.

Still, I have no idea why Derf woul even want to silence him twice.
So putting these things together, MP and MM are both either: A) Not civ or Derf, and each have been silenced twice. By the same person or different people in each case, who knows. Or B) One of them is BF and is faking, and one of the silencers (likely BF, given the missed kill) missed the PM. However, both of these two have clearly been around, so why would either have missed the PM?

Definitely leaning very far away from an MM or MP lynch now. I suppose either could in theory be Moloch, but I'd rather go with someone who has a possibility to be BF or Moloch to increase our chances.

Confirms likelihood of a LoRab vote:

Russtifinko wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Well, it's one hour left and, realistically, I think five more votes to be made (I'm counting out the silenced, because if they faked it but do show up to vote, they pretty much commit suicide, and TinyBubbles, who is nowhere to be seen). Six with Tiny.

How about we put our top choices on the table? I'm very torn between my first two

- DDL - out of all the hunters, I feel least good about him
- LoRab - out of all the players, I feel least good about her
- third probably Cookie, based on today
I'm very strongly leaning a LoRab vote at this point. Rico, I agree with you that she looks the worst.

DDL, thanks for response. You are indeed stubborn! I suppose I understand your reasoning there, though, that you don't want to be fooled by a faking MP. I personally just find the fake very unlikely at this point, though.

Comment on LoRab not holding her vote until the end for self-protection:

Russtifinko wrote:
Ricochet wrote:She just dropped the self-preserve vote intentions, though. Does that look slighty better?
I'm not following. Why would a self-preserve intention make her look better? To me it contributes to the story that she's not helping us catch baddies.

And votes:

Russtifinko wrote:I'm voting now. 10 minutes left in the poll, which ends a bit earlier than the last one, I think, and I don't see anything changing my mind in that short timespan.

Linki: Ah, I see. Not really, since she's voting someone I feel good about.

VOTE #6: Cookie

Spoiler: show

Initially feels good about LoRab:

Cookie wrote:I'm not going to do full ISO's on everyone because... ain't nobody got time fo' dat, but I am going to talk about some post with people from what I can remember. I'm sure most of these points have already been addressed, but like MP says, it's crucial we find the final mafia/muloch. I'm also only looking mostly at votes and things I remember from specific days.

MP - I just remembered he was silenced on D2. If he is the final baddie, why would he silence himself on D2? He wasn't under any heat and no one suspected him at this point. D3 and D4, he voted for me and not Espers, who he continually said looked suspicious. D5 he voted for Elo, which I agree, given the evidence against her, was a valid vote.
MetalMarsh - The only things I find strange about MM is his self-vote for D2 and then proceeded to miss the vote the next day. Did MM say why he voted for DDL on D5?
DDL - I think DDL seems civ. There's nothing he has done that speaks volumes to me like the previous two. He did vote for LoRab on D4, which tied the votes between me, Espers, and LoRab. If he was civ, it was a genuine mistake that he tied the votes by voting who he thought was mafia. If he was maf, he would be tying the votes so that Espers did not (hopefully) die. He voted for Elo on D5. If I recall correctly, wasn't DDL one of the ones who was adamant that Elo was civ?
G-Man - I've no idea what to think about him.
LoRab - The last to vote Espers the day that Espers died. Seems civ to me but could just be bussing. Didn't actually secure his death, since the person who voted for Espers before LoRab was securing Espers death unless someone else voted me or LoRab. Could have also been self-preservation, since LoRab knew he/she had suspicions against him/her.
Bass/Tiny - I've no idea what to think about them.
Ricochet - Voted Elo on D1 (or is it D0?) but did not vote Elo when MP and Scotty presented evidence (was he away somewhere?). I don't remember if he was actually online for the discussion of that.
Russtifinko - Was the first to vote for Espers/ika, however, ika was bound to be lynched either that day or the next. Although, being the first, seems civ to me.
Scotty - Seems genuinely sorry for his mistake in voting Elo. He didn't pressure anyone into voting for her, but posted his claims and left it at that. I regard this as a civ move. Nothing else about him gives me baddie vibes.

So I've no idea who I should vote for. My top suspects would be: MP, MM, and LoRab.

Sorry if I get the Day #s mixed up, I couldn't remember if it was called D0 or D1.

Comments on Rico's post, including comments re: LoRab (whom she now seems willing to lynch):

Cookie wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Updates:

TinyBubbles - hasn't played one bit. I have nothing to work with. If she's landed a bad role (BF or Moloch), it'll be a desolate endgame if we lose. Based on Bass' performance, still inclined to call it slightly civ.
Do we need a replacement for the replacement? Lol

Cookie - no change. Offered more reads and ideas in the meantime, out of which the interesting thing I got was her idea of LoRab's vote for ika mirroring a potential bussing of an already toast teammate, the same way espers bussed Sloonei when it was half clear he'll get lynched; that, combined with the defense of voting in self-preservation, can constitute a bit of blending. She's [Cookie, that is] a bit more comfortable handing out civ tags than I personally am, but fine, at least there's something to take note of her views on everyone else. Her top current suspects, assuming a vote would materialize from them, are LoRab (ok), MP (she said she won't vote for him, though) and MM (she only found two strange things in his gameplay, yet is putting him at the top? sounds a bit comfy). Keeping a close eye on her.
I said I would not vote MP in the night so that I didn't get killed for saying I would vote for him, considering I think he is the final mafia. I am most likely to vote for MP today unless I am convinced someone else is mafia given other theories or if others are willing (and do) vote for LoRab. MM is silenced and I remember people saying it's not really fair to vote for silenced players.

DDL - no improvement from previous read, in fact I actually feel worse about him. He ended up D4 calling MP scum and ISO'd the hell out of him on N4, but the next Day it all kinda vanished. He acknowledge a bit of his ISO was inaccurate, but was that really enough to take the pedal off him? I don't think it was ever clear, if so. States several times - in real time with MP's case on Eloh, furthermore - that he doesn't find Elo to be Big Figure, only to return and find MP's and Scotty's arguments convincing. Nothing inherently bad with that, since I myself found some of those angles interesting indeed (plus Eloh's whole gameplay truly awful), but this feels too flexible and non-committal, compared to the DDL that hunted and challenged hard on his own. (Golden, D2; DH, D3; MP, D4) I don't like this. Considering a vote for DDL today.
Now that you mention it, that's a good point about DDL, who previously was dead set on his reads and opinions, but was easily way in the vote with Elo.

G-Man - no change, I think. Also, check Scotty for a bit more speculation on him.

LoRab - Hasn't been really into the game since D4, when she mostly focused on defending herself and getting herself out of being lynched. I don't remember hearing a suspect from her apart from G-Man the first three days. Oh, you prefer sticking with your leads, rather than being in the loop with others? "Frankly dear..." No change from what I already wrote about her. I'm sorry, but just like with Eloh (even if she was good), you will seriously have to tell how am I supposed to trust LoRab. I'm feeling she's completely detached from the main events and it only makes me more wary. I wouldn't mind voting her today.
She has been voting for G-Man every chance she gets (could be a way to stay off of Rorschach's list, since no one else was willing to vote for him to the extent she did). She also doesn't seem to have considered anyone else?

MM

Day 1: 2nd vote for Ninja (Ninja at 2, all the other eventual wagons not even commenced)
Day 2: self-votes because he's MM and AWOL (first vote of the Day as well, will end up in a tie with Golden and survive)
Day 3: misses vote
Day 4: 1st vote for LoRab, on her being opportunistic and tunneling with her votes (first vote of the Day as well, LoRab will end up with three votes, tied with Cookie, ika will get lynched with 5)
Day 5: only vote for DDL, on his Moloch speculation and profiling him as Moloch (you guessed it, first vote of the Day)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - allocates an "ike" emoticon to him; admits voting alongside Sloonei, but for simple reasons of voting anyone; later comments on LC's theories of Eloh being Sloonei's teammate; defends himself against Scotty by not actually defending much and agreeing his vote followed Sloonei's (WIFOM planting?)

espers - allocates espers a "mole rat" emoticon; absolutely nothing else
ika - recommends to him to vote LoRab
Read: Enigma. Earlier I thought his banter and fluffing was coming off baddish, but it's hardly a tenth of the stuff he usually pulls; he's far more detached than that. His lack of confrontation with the field, as well as total lack of interaction or read on the confirmed Mafia members (whether distancing or not), doesn't bring in mind the baddie profile I had of him, either. His only semblance of a real case was on LoRab, but then he didn't seem to care about it anymore the next Day. The only pattern I could speculate on (tin-foil-style, let's say) is that his acknowledging of his D1 being close to Sloonei's would be WIFOM planting, and that his suggestion to ika to "simply vote LoRab" could be dastardly buddying (although ika never paid attention to him, so it's probably just banter). His latest speculation is that DDL is Moloch, because it fits the profile of a dormant baddie who hunts a lot to look good. But wouldn't the angle of a dormant Moloch who doesn't do anything also seem plausible? His dismissal of G-Man's suspicions on him, openly saying he doesn't care one bit if he'd get voted by him, could also be notable.
I have no idea where to place MM - yeah, bet you've never heard that before - I'm not too sure he could be the last Inmate and his detachment makes me think the odds are: 60% he's just MM, 30% he's Moloch, 10% he's - yeah, I'll say it* - an unlynchable** Manhattan who also gives no fucks about what happens (MM could have rezz'd Scotty to amend for the D1 banter they had; or for the lulz).

*this is pure speculation, please treat it as such; I've checked with Epig before to see if I'm allowed to make such a specific speculation; if you find it unplausible, think back to Death Note (if you've played it); **I'm not sure Epig's deist views of designing a mafia game would allow for an overpowered, unlynchable Manhattan, but still...he was overpowered and unkillable in the comics and the Watchmen, as far as it's shown, are fairly designed up to lore

Russtifinko

Day 1 - 2nd vote for G-Man, finding his wording strange (Sloonei at 4, Ninja at 3)
Day 2 - misses vote
Day 3 - misses vote
Day 4 - 1st vote for ika, for behavior (tied with LoRab)
Day 2 - 2nd vote for MP, to keep binary lynch close (brings MP at 2, with Eloh at 3)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - indirectly considers llama's points on him having merits (Sloonei's defensiveness being off-putting)
espers - considers his D1 vote the most suspicious, but find there's need to develop his view further; then finds him "above-board" for content; finds him safe vote for D3, although based only on his stated suspicious (which he considers not to be much); D4, keeps espers as mild suspicion; then (at Scotty's inquiry), considers him top read; votes ika for behavior; profiles last teammate as somebody who didn't buss espers on D3, but did on D4
Read: I'm not getting any strong bad vibe from browsing his posts, especially since he got more engaged in the game - he's going deep into reading, relying on gut and meta, participating and challenging others with reads etc. - but some of the interaction above is spotty, just like with many others. He consented to the general view on Sloonei, finding his defensiveness off-putting the way llama put it, but he focused otherwise on Eloh and G-Man and voted late for the latter, in a lynch train that was hardly relevant (despite G-Man's actions being a hot topic). It sounds reasonable, but it's also susceptible to a tin foil version of planting a suspicion on Sloonei to look good, then act in different directions. Just like with Bass, I will be absolutely floored if Russ would turn out to have been part of a surviving Mafia (alongside espers) which totally slacked off almost two Days in a row. His "mild suspicions" on espers, that failed to materialize into a vote until D4, have been brought up before and it was what he started getting some heat for. His early vote for ika technically makes him look good, but since ika totally bombed his exit, it's still believable that he would have been bussed without hesitation. His defense for Eloh makes me feel better, overall. As I've said, I'm reading a Russ who is putting a good game since he got into it for good. I can't decide at the moment how strongly, apart from the shoddy details mentioned above, I suspect him.

Scotty

Day 1 - Votes Eloh (vote hardly relevant within the eventual dynamic of the lynch: Sloonei currently at 1, Ninja at 2, G-Man also having a vote)
Day 4 - 1st vote for Cookie (ties her with LoRab and ika)
Day 5 - 2nd vote for Eloh, finds her very likely Big Figure (Eloh at 2, DDL at 1)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - wasn't pinged by his game; anything else is in context with other reads or discussions

espers - inquires him on reads; talk about D0 results; the rest is in context with other reads, discussion, other players' reads on espers; agrees the replacement is very suspicious; adds ika to his lynch options, based on MP and Russ reads
Scotty is hunting and failing so far, something that he himself acknowledged after the Eloh fail. I'm naturally inclined not to suspect mislynchers right off the bat (being a grave one myself, usually) and most of Scotty's hunting doesn't look to be superficial, tunneling or fake to me. His lack of Sloonei ping and odd voting got him in trouble after D1, to which him being NK'd is a strong indicator that it couldn't have been a sacrifice within the Mafia team. That being said, his shallow surface direct reads on the confirmed Mafia members, compared to always bringing other players in context with them, is pretty undesirable. I will say this, I will basically flip barking mad if Manhattan screwed up and resurrected a baddie Scotty (either Inmate or Moloch), because it feels like a defenseless situation to deal with. His death and rezz doesn't exonerate him from the odds of being bad, but I cannot say I'm getting bad vibes from him right now. I'm noticing a lot of focus from him on G-Man and I'm wondering if there's not something subtle about it; he seems to try to find a bad angle on everything G-Man is doing, even that D3 vote situation, which I personally still can't wrap my head around as being indicative of G-Man being bad - this may be slight tunnel-ish, but I makes me wonder all the more if Scotty isn't aware of something.

In case you're wondering where's the read on MP, hol' up for a few more hours. I'm probably risking again to drag my reads (and my sanity) near to the late deadline hours, but in case I'll feel that'll be the case, I'll focus right away on a shorter version and provide it.
I've responded in pink. I agree with your analysis of Russ and Scotty.

Answers to Scotty:

Cookie wrote:
Scotty wrote:I'm on my phone again, so I'm not quoting anything, but this in response to @Cookie, point by point

-fair enough about your read of MP during the night phase. Though I'm usually in the camp of letting things out in all phases, I completely understand the reasoning of not revealing too much at night for fear of NK.
But your reasoning the next day was sparse at best, so I don't necessarily see a connection between your fear of being NK'd and your openness during the day.
My openness during day is because I'm not fearful of being killed in the night with no capability of defending myself.

-cheering up sad MP: awwww ok I'll let this pass
- on my read of your reads and is it mocking? Well, it might read as inherently mocking, though I define mocking as the intent of getting a negative emotional response out of someone. If that's the case, I apologize. That's just how I read your reads, nothing more than that.
-thinking Mp is mafia- ok. I just can't help but wonder what you're thinking when you point out something suspicious and in the same breath counter yourself with a positive viewpoint. I think that's just my personality? See the bright side of things. Give the benefit of the doubt.

This one is BS-
-your skipped the first 2 days because your friend wasn't playing? So that's why you don't have a read on GMan or Bass? I don't believe that for a second. I seem to remember you finding the "in-topic" button underneath player names to look through people's history. The thread is here. I was literally DEAD for 2 days and I can still read through all the garbage of those days to get at least a viewpoint.
This what I wrote:

"I don't remember anything he's posted. I skipped over reading the first 2 days or so because I was annoyed that Sloonei was being lynched (not becuase I am mafia with him, but because he is my good friend and I was looking forward to playing a game with him). And the thread moved too fast, so I couldn't remember who posted what. It's only been the past 3 days where I've gotten to know all of the living posters, their style of posting, their image, etc."

I was going to give up on the game and be replaced because I wanted to join him in a different game. In my post I've quoted, I also mentioned the thread was moving too fast to keep up with.

I'm rather new to mafia myself, and don't really know how anyone plays either (except like 3-4 people, though I don't know if they are civ in mafia in BoB). Maybe I'm just more intuitive than the normal person with how forums work but I find it hard to believe even if you're just getting used to these people's play styles, it exempts you from having an opinion either way.
Could it be that your teammate was lynched first day and you so became overwhelmed with your sudden responsibility of being on your own, posting thru your own merits, that you didn't know how to get a good grip on the game? That's pure speculation, which you're entitled to. But I don't know what you expect me to say here.
I don't know where you come from, and I don't know how your compatriots usually play there. But I don't see the excuse of your friend not playing as valid even in that home forum.

-if you listed your top suspects, you claim it should appear that you think they are mafia: that's not completely right, and your reasoning was weak at best. With no clear read on potential mafia, adding people to that suspect list holds little merit, IMHO.

-How do you know espers left for RL reasons? I don't remember anyone posting that reasoning, let alone him.I'm assuming this because why else would he leave with no explanation unless he was leaving because of being lynched out? Regardless, he wasn't interested in playing this game, so I doubt he'd be interesting in helping out the final mafia.

Tries to explain that answer better to LoRab:

Cookie wrote:
LoRab wrote:
Cookie wrote:
Scotty wrote: -How do you know espers left for RL reasons? I don't remember anyone posting that reasoning, let alone him.I'm assuming this because why else would he leave with no explanation unless he was leaving because of being lynched out? Regardless, he wasn't interested in playing this game, so I doubt he'd be interesting in helping out the final mafia.
Wait, what?!
Let me rephrase:
I'm assuming Espers left (got replaced) for RL reasons. Why else would he leave without an explanation? The only other alternative I can think of is if he left because he was going to be lynched. It didn't seem like he was interested in playing the game so why would he be interested in helping out the final mafia?

Snippy response to her explanation being called an excuse?:

Cookie wrote:An excuse for what? Someone said that I was likely being helped from Sloonei/Espers from the grave and those are my reasons why that's unlikely.

Vote me if you feel that warrants a vote for me. Keep in mind, if I am lynched, we will only have 2 more days to lynch the inmate and Moloch.

Then follows up with this when called out on the above comment:

Cookie wrote:I just went by whatever DDL/MP said. They said whatever lylo is, meaning we had 2 or 3 days? I've no idea what lylo is - I haven't googled it.

Now she's indecisive but considering MP again (almost missed this with my ctrl + f for "lorab"):

Cookie wrote:I haven't decided between LoRad or MP.

Votes LoRab because she's able to talk:

Cookie wrote:I voted LoRab because I don't think it's fair to vote the other two people who I was suspicious of: MM and MP. Both seem to be silenced and I don't like that they can't talk about it.

VOTE #7: G-Man

Spoiler: show

All of my posts from Day 6 (pre-vote) in order:

G-Man wrote:To whoever sent me the ciphered message: thanks for reaching out to me but I cannot figure your message out. Weekends are horrible for me to devote more than 10% of my time to mafia, so I'll try to decode your message if I can find time. Sorry to disappoint you.

G-Man wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
G-Man wrote:To whoever sent me the ciphered message: thanks for reaching out to me but I cannot figure your message out. Weekends are horrible for me to devote more than 10% of my time to mafia, so I'll try to decode your message if I can find time. Sorry to disappoint you.
What message? I think it's the second time I'm hearing a player receiving some "info" he has to crack during the Night, after Eloh.
I received it Night 4, and used it to inform some of my reads. I'd like to think it's Ozymandias giving us hints.

Otherwise, we're just being duped by the magician.

Elo received a message Night 3.

Right now I'm just trying to figure out how the cipher works.

As for the rest of the game goes... I find myself unfortunately fixated on MP07. I feel very strongly that he is Big Figure given his D1 shift on Sloonei, the way he subtly criticized a few votes on espers, and his bet with me. I think he made a cheater's bet- he knew he was going to lose it when I called him on it because losing the bet makes him look bad and allows him to act all contrite and tail-between-the-legs. That outcome and ensuing behavior should, in theory, give us pause.

I realize, however, that I often try to come up with the most evil, underhanded, and complex theories possible due to my overactive imagination.

I don't really know where to look after him. That will require some time re-reading a few people and further analysis in my spreadsheets.

G-Man wrote:Tiny Bubbles logged on today and yet no posts here. Tiny needs to come up big today or I will be very suspicious.

G-Man wrote:Really tired of screwing around with the darn

Still not sure how I'll vote.

G-Man wrote:Sorry I wasn't in the game today. We've been prepping the spare bedroom for our daughter to move into. Baby 2.0 will be evicting her from the nursery in approximately 3 months. Reviewing quick.

G-Man wrote:Oh this scenario is almost too delicious to be true. Decisions decisions.

G-Man wrote:I don't feel the need to protect either of the two players with 2 votes.

G-Man wrote:But I don't feel the need to vote for them either.

G-Man wrote:

Day 6

DAY 6 RESULTS:

1. MOVINGPICTURES07 (Dragon)
2. COOKIE (Scotty)
3. COOKIE (LoRab)
4. DRAGON (Ricochet)
5. LORAB (Russtifinko)
6. LORAB (Cookie)
7. MOVINGPICTURES07 (G-Man)

Not Voting: MM89 (2),MP07 (2), Tiny Bubbles (4)

ALTERNATE FORMAT:

1. MOVINGPICTURES07 (Dragon)
7. MOVINGPICTURES07 (G-Man)

2. COOKIE (Scotty)
3. COOKIE (LoRab)

5. LORAB (Russtifinko)
6. LORAB (Cookie)

4. DRAGON (Ricochet)

Not Voting:
MM89 (2)
MP07 (2)<---Player = CIVILIAN
Tiny Bubbles (4)

VOTE #1: Dragon

Spoiler: show

His first mention of possibly voting for MP07:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Uh, no, not your vanishing as a player, your case's vanishing. (Again, just like LoRab, I don't criticize players for "vanishing".) It felt to me like as soon as MP pointed out some inaccuracies about your ISO and you agreed it invalidates a few stuff and said you'll recheck it, it ended up nowhere. You simply said it didn't invalidate the rest of your case and you're keeping him in check. To which my question, if you've called him Mafia a Day before and made ISO hardly invalidating this conclusion, why the downgrade to "still a suspect"?

You make some fair points about having referenced Eloh as potential Moloch but not Big Figure, so I'll look back over your posts, although I'd still say your vote post and reasoning was based on her actually being Big Figure and bussing both her teammates. I didn't get the "maybe Elo is Moloch and I'm fine with that too" impression from that particular post, only from your explanations right now, which is of course a bit in retrospect.
I've been consistently suspecting MP since I made the first ISO on him, if that's what you wanna know. I took a detour on day 5, but I'm probably voting him today.

"Still a suspect" is not a downgrade. Nobody can get more suspicious than that. Because I can't know for sure anyone is mafia, so the best I can do is call them suspects.

The Eloh case was pretty sloppy, though I believe you should look at my dialogue with MP and Scotty about it if you want to understand what I was thinking.

Here he posts justification for his Day 5 vote for Elo.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:@Rico

I'll try to explain better.

I was and I still am interested at hunting BF more than Moloch. I had the opinion that Eloh looked pretty suspicious, but her vote history screamed "not BF". Then D5 happened, mp and Scotty came in with very early votes on Eloh. They gave me a feeling they were seeing more into it than I was seeing myself. I talked to them and wanted to know why, and I wanted to believe them, but the fact they were calling her Big Figure instead of Moloch didn't convince me.

So I kept reading their posts until they both said something that I believe could be a reasonable explanation for the bussing (the theory that Eloh bussed her teammates because the flow of the game pointed to they being lynched). I let my confirmation bias do the rest and bought the theory that Eloh was Big Figure.

Yes, I know the whole thing is fishy and a huge departure to how I approached the game until Day 4. I thought I had spotted something meaningful, but I hadn't, and I dropped the way I had been playing the game up to that point because of it. You can believe me or not if you want.

Final reasoning for an MP07 vote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Anyway, I'm leaving in a while so let's wrap this up.

I'm voting MP today. I recognize his baddie play in this game was somewhat sloppy, but I don't think it was THAT sloppy. Truth be told, a baddie cannot make a completely flawless game unless they outright bus their teammates from the start, and as much as MP has tried to convince me that he is normally the master baddie that busses everyone, I don't see much room for that in this game. If he is a baddie, he is actually playing a pretty good game. He's not avoiding suspicions, but he is managing to cover every suspicion with WIFOM and keep people guessing. He changes his style when people question it, and then is able to WIFOM it out if people question that too. He seems eager to please others while still having the leadership over the civilians. He is playing very well to his meta while finding a way of making it fail when he needs to.

There is just way too much evidence, everywhere, for me to drop this. I've explained it over countless posts in this game, so I'm not elaborate it all over again. But I think at this point I have to admit enough is enough and put my vote where my suspicion is.

votes MP

Sorry my friend, but it's time for you to go. If you are a civ, I sincerely apologize for all the unfair bullying I gave you in this game. If you are a baddie, it was a pleasure playing mafia against you.

VOTE #2: Scotty

Spoiler: show

Mentions Cookie near the end...

Scotty wrote:Still on my phone, God help me.

Well looks like I don't have to rage quit. I'll revisit my last post tomorrow, as I've been in a pissy mood since this morning's erasure (plus catering for 17.5 hours hasn't helped much).

For now, I'm wondering what weird circumstance would allow no one to die today. Mafia don't want to show their hand? Were they blocked? Were they trapped in carbonite?
G-Man wrote:
Scotty wrote:I just had my longest post ever get deleted on my phone. I want to cry. I didn't save it.

It was my magnum opus.

I don't know if I can repeat it. I spent 2 hours typing it out on this PIEXE OF SHIT PHONE DAMMIT.
I know your pain.

Scotty wrote:Note thAt this is the last read GMan has on espers before voting him, even though he had like 5 other people on his radar for more suspicious reasons. But he votes espers not because espers is bad but because he wanted to "save DH". Like 4 more people voted after GMAn in that last 10 min, so it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that he assumed there would be more votes thrown in other directions. DH had a healthy amount of suspicion, after all. And by tieing the vote at 2-2 it at least have him cred in case espers flipped bad.

Where as LoRab essentially votes espers out in Day 4, where she could have tied it, GMAn just tied it on a person he had a neutral read on anyway. Weird voting but again looks good for him if espers does get voted out and flips. Espers was leaving after the vote anyway, so what better time to appear civ
I had no inside information on either DH or espers but DH was saying things that made firm sense to me. Seeing him in the lead on the poll that close to the end was unconscionable to me and I wasn't about to add a vote to myself to save DH. My vote on espers was all about protecting a player I thought was good. I took a stand but it wasn't enough.

Scotty wrote:GMan votes LoRab. LoRab had some healthy suspicion at this point, but note that GMan did not just vote to save someone like he said day 3. Crap I'm out of time.
I haven't voted for LoRab at all this game. I'm confused.

Personally, I think we should revisit this gem because part of me wants very much to believe that MP07 is trying to pull the biggest swindle I've ever seen.

TIN FOIL READ ON MOVINGPICTURES07:
D1: 11th vote overall, 2nd vote for Scotty. Talks up suspicions of his teammate early and then slowly backs it down with detailed posts on why Sloonei isn't so suspicious after all. It's subtle defense hidden behind personal observations and reasoning. In theory, he shouldn't get called out on back-tracking on Sloonei because he provided oh so much evidence to support his waning suspicions. He then latches onto Bass's suspicions of Scotty and posts a very detailed theory on why Scotty must be bad. See that? He subtly defended Slooeni while trying to stir the pot on Scotty- both times using his big-talker meta as a shield for his wicked intentions. His vote for Scotty has it 2-2 between Niju and Scotty and just one vote behind his teammate. All he needs is one or two followers to take the bait and get then he can castigate them for their votes after the fact. Too bad no one bit. Possibly silenced himself because that's what baddies do when they think they can get away with it.

D2: Misses the vote. He was silenced and couldn't vote but he wastes his silencing because he's not even on the poll so it doesn't build any sympathy for him whatsoever. Maybe he even encouraged espers to skip the vote because- hey, no Inmates on the poll so why even stick our necks out with a vote?

D3: Keeps his teammate in his top tier of suspects and waits until almost the last minute to vote. Why? To see if espers needs his help. He knows he can't vote DH without getting called on it so he votes sideways for one of his other suspects, using Cookie's rough game against her. He tries to pump up the "Cookie is bad!" wavelength something fierce but no one bites. He gets lucky because espers survived the lynch poll tie. Now he needs someone new to rail against alongside Cookie and decides now is the time to use Elo's odd play this game against her.

D4: 9th vote overall, 3rd vote on Cookie. His vote brings Cookie within 1 vote of tying espers/ika. Despite a lot of agreement that espers/ika is bad new, he caves and falls back on Cookie a second day in a row. It's designed to look consistent though because she doesn't look so great and was in MP07's suspect list already. After the flip, he goes hard at pushing his Elo case. He silences her Night 4 and stirs the pot early by voting for her amidst his verbosity. It attracts a second vote before anyone's realized that Elo has been possibly silenced.
This response is exactly nil of content. I concede that my post this morning (or yesterday morning I should say ) might have been intensely accusatory and i assure you that that wasn't what I originally wrote. It's that a-ha moment that hit me before work and I would like to explore that today. I wI'll of course entertain other options, but only if they bussed one of the mafia like I said earlier.

Anyway, GMan's post here can be broken down into several parts:

1) Reaffirming my points about his voting for espers because he wanted to protect DH and
Not because espers was bad. I get it, it looked good for you to look the hero, attempt to save a good guy, and oh by the way, vote for someone that turned out to be bad later.
2) after restating what I said in regards to the day 3 vote, the rest of your response is redirecting a tinfoil read towards MP, which is another thing I said you were tending to do. I appreciate tin-foil for sure, it's great at wrapping up potatoes to eat later, but sometimes you try microwaving your tin-foil. Don't microwave your tin-foil.

Will respond to more tomorrow, including Cookie, who continues to blip onto my radar whenever she posts. It's actually quite amazing how infrequently frequent she tends to do that.
Until then...stay classy.

Well before Dragon votes for MP07, Scotty posts this, thinking he has figured out how Cookie has navigated the game:

Scotty wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
G-Man wrote:To whoever sent me the ciphered message: thanks for reaching out to me but I cannot figure your message out. Weekends are horrible for me to devote more than 10% of my time to mafia, so I'll try to decode your message if I can find time. Sorry to disappoint you.
What message? I think it's the second time I'm hearing a player receiving some "info" he has to crack during the Night, after Eloh.
I received it Night 4, and used it to inform some of my reads. I'd like to think it's Ozymandias giving us hints.

Otherwise, we're just being duped by the magician.

Elo received a message Night 3.

Anyway, I took a step back from last night. Got a few hours of sleep. Going to bed at 5am didn't help.
I think I did start to get awfully close to tunneling on GMan. But I see the light, and I'm going back to my original read that GMan is probably Morlock.

As for LoRab, I'm actually good with her line of defense. Her absence from the thread makes sense and she's reading more genuine to me.

RE: MM getting silenced. How sure are we of that?

Cookie, Cookie, Cookie.
Your strategy has been very much under my radar for some time now. I couldn't put a finger on it. I did vote for you Day 4, and while I wish after the fact that I had changed it to espers, I'm not regretful of voting you.

(My responses in blue.
Cookie wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:G-Man, thanks for those technicolors. I know I knocked them last Day period, and I still firmly believe they shouldn't be the only source of information, but they are an important one.

Cookie, you still wondering why the mafia has kept me alive this whole time? Should be evident now.
Not so much anymore. You are likely to be lynched. But given your posts, you still seem like you could be bad but I don't think you will be receiving my vote tomorrow.
Everything about this sentence is wishy-washy. Confident MP's going to be lynched, so who cares if he hasn't been NK'd yet. But he could be bad, so/but/yet you're not voting him. I'd expect more of a follow-through at this point in the game. She's been shrugging off reads like it's a new fad. Make a commitment.

Everyone, if you want to lynch me tomorrow, so be it. Going into this Day period, it seemed likely to me that I very well could get lynched anyway, and people were complaining that I couldn't commit. I felt strong about what I uncovered shortly after D5's start about Elo, so I decided to take a stand. Otherwise, it seemed as though I might have been dead meat anyway.

If you want to blame her death on me, that's fine. I realize she couldn't even defend herself. I take full responsibility for that lynch, as I stated earlier. I hate that I caused another mislynch and led to an unproductive D5 and likely an unproductive D6. I'm going to try my best to avoid the latter.In your defense, you did not realize she may have been silenced until after your vote and after you posted evidence against her.
You're defending MP here. And with the argument that he didn't know if she couldn't defend herself? MP admits that he realizes she couldn't defend. Either way, I don't think it would have mattered much. MP seemed deadset on that choice in the early phase.

Rico said it best earlier in D5 when he said that the lynch of Elo truly was a test of voting records v. gameplay, because Elo looked pretty good in the former (though not perfect) and terrible in the latter. I took a gamble and I was wrong. For derailing the thread and refusing to listen to counterarguments as much as I should have, I apologize.

Nonetheless, I think that any of you who want to go "BLAME MP" should take a step back and realize that every player here takes an inherent responsibility for their own vote when it is cast (or not cast, which is reprehensible).

I don't apologize for all of the baddie hunting I've done this game. I may have questioned myself too much on Sloonei and espers, and tunneled Elo, but I've done everything in my power to hunt baddies this game. Truly this is a terrible performance from me. But it doesn't make me mafia.

I realize for some (perhaps many) of you, it would take a flip of me to truly confirm that, and nothing I can say would persuade you otherwise. I can empathize.

I was actually feeling selfish earlier this morning, as if I didn't care whether town won this game if they auto-lynched me tomorrow, because it means that I won't win. I put an insane amount of time and energy into this game, and it's been very mentally and emotionally taxing. I think if you are lynched tomorrow, it will not be because you lead the vote on Elo and you turned out to be town. It will be because people have studied your posts and votes and determined you to be the most likely candidate for being bad. If we lynched everyone who led lynches against civs, then we would lose.
I guess we could do the flipside and use your method of scum-hunting: Well he looks bad, but he could be good, but I like he might be bad so I dunno lol
For G-Man to declare to me that I "need to go" was very bothersome, especially when it can be argued that other players "need to go", for whatever reason. I don't think that should EVER be a reason for lynching anyone. Especially for lynching someone who's put as much effort as I have into this game. If you find my actions suspect, sure. But no one, on sheer principle, "needs to go". This isn't a criticism of you, G-Man, and I don't think that's what you intended, since you have declared my voting record as a reason for me being suspect, but I just want this said nonetheless.

Despite that, the truth is that I still want to see civilians win this game regardless. I'm going to try my best in what will probably be my last hour to make that happen.

I don't want to be lynched tomorrow. Right now, there are 10 players alive. Assuming Moloch is alive and a civilian is NKed tonight, that leaves 7-1-1 going into D6. 6-1-1 if I get lynched, then 5-1-1 going into D7. That's still not bad, but less than ideal, since you all can only afford 1 more mislynch after you'd lynch me. 2 mislynches, assuming successful NK of a civilian each Night, would make it 1-1-1, which is GAME OVER for us. Then there's the complication of the Watchmen additional win cons as well.

Think carefully about how you conduct lynches going forward, including my own, since we're running low on chances.
I've responded in pink!
Then gone for 8 hours and swears she will be back "after [her] massage".
Immediately after the no-lynch night, she decides to post some ISOs, which, if you remember from her early game, were very foreign to her. But she should have suspects at this point, and I honestly can't think of any of late.
My responses in blue.
Cookie wrote:I'm not going to do full ISO's on everyone because... ain't nobody got time fo' dat, but I am going to talk about some post with people from what I can remember. I'm sure most of these points have already been addressed, but like MP says, it's crucial we find the final mafia/muloch. I'm also only looking mostly at votes and things I remember from specific days.

MP - I just remembered he was silenced on D2. If he is the final baddie, why would he silence himself on D2? He wasn't under any heat and no one suspected him at this point. D3 and D4, he voted for me and not Espers, who he continually said looked suspicious. D5 he voted for Elo, which I agree, given the evidence against her, was a valid vote.So...you think he is civ?
MetalMarsh - The only things I find strange about MM is his self-vote for D2 and then proceeded to miss the vote the next day. Did MM say why he voted for DDL on D5?It's MM, no. And again...no read
DDL - I think DDL seems civ. There's nothing he has done that speaks volumes to me like the previous two. He did vote for LoRab on D4, which tied the votes between me, Espers, and LoRab. If he was civ, it was a genuine mistake that he tied the votes by voting who he thought was mafia. If he was maf, he would be tying the votes so that Espers did not (hopefully) die. He voted for Elo on D5. If I recall correctly, wasn't DDL one of the ones who was adamant that Elo was civ? OK, OK. DDL seems civ to you. That's a committed read, I guess.
G-Man - I've no idea what to think about him.Wait, you have no idea what to think of him right now? It's Day 6! You're sure to at least have some opinion one way or another.
LoRab - The last to vote Espers the day that Espers died. Seems civ to me but could just be bussing. Didn't actually secure his death, since the person who voted for Espers before LoRab was securing Espers death unless someone else voted me or LoRab. Could have also been self-preservation, since LoRab knew he/she had suspicions against him/her. When you start using the word "bussing", I am pinged in remembering that I keep wanting to coddle you, thinking you may not know those sorts of terms. But you do, and so I don't want to look at you through rose-colored glasses anymore. Your read on LoRab? seems civ...
Bass/Tiny - I've no idea what to think about them. It's not like Bass was MIA the first few days. Tiny hasnt posted in a while, sure, but he was actively scum hunting. How can you not have an opinion? Baffles me.
Ricochet - Voted Elo on D1 (or is it D0?) but did not vote Elo when MP and Scotty presented evidence (was he away somewhere?). I don't remember if he was actually online for the discussion of that.no read or opinion
Russtifinko - Was the first to vote for Espers/ika, however, ika was bound to be lynched either that day or the next. Although, being the first, seems civ to me. "however", "although", maybe, i dunno lol
Scotty - Seems genuinely sorry for his mistake in voting Elo. He didn't pressure anyone into voting for her, but posted his claims and left it at that. I regard this as a civ move. Nothing else about him gives me baddie vibes. civ again.

So I've no idea who I should vote for. My top suspects would be: MP, MM, and LoRab.
So your top suspects are (in order): maybe civ, no read, seems civ.
Oh boy.. That's like a doctor prescribing me foot cream for my cancerous head growth. It DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

Sorry if I get the Day #s mixed up, I couldn't remember if it was called D0 or D1.
Ricochet is right- you do seem overly comfortable handing out civ tags, and generally don't have a handle on the flow of the game.
Except.
You do seem to be getting a hang of things, with your verbiage in your occasional posts. I'm done looking at you as the baby of the group, you're not a baby. Shouldn't treat you as one. You know full well what you're doing, AND if you were mafia, you're still having espers and Sloonei talk to you beyond the grave, so you're not completely alone, my dear.

Cookie is this guy:
Seems like a trustworthy person, maybe throwing some dance moves in, but in reality, is a werewolf.

What does anyone else see/think?

Establishes Cookie as his top vote prospect:

Scotty wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Did a quick skim of Russ's posts, since he's another player everybody has been talking about and I needed to form an opinion on him.

Honestly I'm having a good feeling about the guy. In the first half of the game he was absent, but that can be justified because of RL, which he did warn us about in advance. In the second half, he became more active. It seems his playstyle is one of not making huge analysis or ISOs, and not tunneling or listing suspects. He gives an opinion about everything that goes on his head, tries to pick meaningful clues on what's going on, and votes with his gut. Not a civ leader, but not an useless civilian either.

I really doubt he is is Big Figure because he had been consistently suspecting espers for a while, and was the first one to vote him on d4. Would be a very risky bussing. And if he is Moloch, then he's playing a very balanced game for a baddie, managing to look natural, not being afraid to say everything that comes to his mind and boldly jumping on suspicions. Of course, the way it's hard for us to find Moloch based on votes, the dude could be simply playing to his own meta while blending with town, but right now I have no reason to believe he's doing that.

Could be a meaningful lynch candidate for lylo if we run out of suspects, but right now, I'm not buying it.
I also am coming more into terms with the fact that this is Russ' personality. He does have a calculated demeanor to him, which is what pinged me in the first place, and yes, he did suspect espers for a while- before espers even left the thread. I would like to hear more from him today and what he thinks, however. Because he's not completely off my list, but has slipped down.

As of now my list for lynching today is, in order: Cookie, GMan, LoRab, Russ, MM

Scotty discusses silencing and his speculation that Derf was dead already here:

Scotty wrote:my responses in blue.
Cookie wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Updates:

TinyBubbles - hasn't played one bit. I have nothing to work with. If she's landed a bad role (BF or Moloch), it'll be a desolate endgame if we lose. Based on Bass' performance, still inclined to call it slightly civ.
Do we need a replacement for the replacement? Lol

Cookie - no change. Offered more reads and ideas in the meantime, out of which the interesting thing I got was her idea of LoRab's vote for ika mirroring a potential bussing of an already toast teammate, the same way espers bussed Sloonei when it was half clear he'll get lynched; that, combined with the defense of voting in self-preservation, can constitute a bit of blending. She's [Cookie, that is] a bit more comfortable handing out civ tags than I personally am, but fine, at least there's something to take note of her views on everyone else. Her top current suspects, assuming a vote would materialize from them, are LoRab (ok), MP (she said she won't vote for him, though) and MM (she only found two strange things in his gameplay, yet is putting him at the top? sounds a bit comfy). Keeping a close eye on her.
I said I would not vote MP in the night so that I didn't get killed for saying I would vote for him, considering I think he is the final mafia. I am most likely to vote for MP today unless I am convinced someone else is mafia given other theories or if others are willing (and do) vote for LoRab. MM is silenced and I remember people saying it's not really fair to vote for silenced players.It's assumed, but we don't know MM is silenced. Unless...you do know he is silenced..

DDL - no improvement from previous read, in fact I actually feel worse about him. He ended up D4 calling MP scum and ISO'd the hell out of him on N4, but the next Day it all kinda vanished. He acknowledge a bit of his ISO was inaccurate, but was that really enough to take the pedal off him? I don't think it was ever clear, if so. States several times - in real time with MP's case on Eloh, furthermore - that he doesn't find Elo to be Big Figure, only to return and find MP's and Scotty's arguments convincing. Nothing inherently bad with that, since I myself found some of those angles interesting indeed (plus Eloh's whole gameplay truly awful), but this feels too flexible and non-committal, compared to the DDL that hunted and challenged hard on his own. (Golden, D2; DH, D3; MP, D4) I don't like this. Considering a vote for DDL today.
Now that you mention it, that's a good point about DDL, who previously was dead set on his reads and opinions, but was easily way in the vote with Elo.

G-Man - no change, I think. Also, check Scotty for a bit more speculation on him.

LoRab - Hasn't been really into the game since D4, when she mostly focused on defending herself and getting herself out of being lynched. I don't remember hearing a suspect from her apart from G-Man the first three days. Oh, you prefer sticking with your leads, rather than being in the loop with others? "Frankly dear..." No change from what I already wrote about her. I'm sorry, but just like with Eloh (even if she was good), you will seriously have to tell how am I supposed to trust LoRab. I'm feeling she's completely detached from the main events and it only makes me more wary. I wouldn't mind voting her today.
She has been voting for G-Man every chance she gets (could be a way to stay off of Rorschach's list, since no one else was willing to vote for him to the extent she did). She also doesn't seem to have considered anyone else?

MM

Day 1: 2nd vote for Ninja (Ninja at 2, all the other eventual wagons not even commenced)
Day 2: self-votes because he's MM and AWOL (first vote of the Day as well, will end up in a tie with Golden and survive)
Day 3: misses vote
Day 4: 1st vote for LoRab, on her being opportunistic and tunneling with her votes (first vote of the Day as well, LoRab will end up with three votes, tied with Cookie, ika will get lynched with 5)
Day 5: only vote for DDL, on his Moloch speculation and profiling him as Moloch (you guessed it, first vote of the Day)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - allocates an "ike" emoticon to him; admits voting alongside Sloonei, but for simple reasons of voting anyone; later comments on LC's theories of Eloh being Sloonei's teammate; defends himself against Scotty by not actually defending much and agreeing his vote followed Sloonei's (WIFOM planting?)

espers - allocates espers a "mole rat" emoticon; absolutely nothing else
ika - recommends to him to vote LoRab
Read: Enigma. Earlier I thought his banter and fluffing was coming off baddish, but it's hardly a tenth of the stuff he usually pulls; he's far more detached than that. His lack of confrontation with the field, as well as total lack of interaction or read on the confirmed Mafia members (whether distancing or not), doesn't bring in mind the baddie profile I had of him, either. His only semblance of a real case was on LoRab, but then he didn't seem to care about it anymore the next Day. The only pattern I could speculate on (tin-foil-style, let's say) is that his acknowledging of his D1 being close to Sloonei's would be WIFOM planting, and that his suggestion to ika to "simply vote LoRab" could be dastardly buddying (although ika never paid attention to him, so it's probably just banter). His latest speculation is that DDL is Moloch, because it fits the profile of a dormant baddie who hunts a lot to look good. But wouldn't the angle of a dormant Moloch who doesn't do anything also seem plausible? His dismissal of G-Man's suspicions on him, openly saying he doesn't care one bit if he'd get voted by him, could also be notable.
I have no idea where to place MM - yeah, bet you've never heard that before - I'm not too sure he could be the last Inmate and his detachment makes me think the odds are: 60% he's just MM, 30% he's Moloch, 10% he's - yeah, I'll say it* - an unlynchable** Manhattan who also gives no fucks about what happens (MM could have rezz'd Scotty to amend for the D1 banter they had; or for the lulz).

*this is pure speculation, please treat it as such; I've checked with Epig before to see if I'm allowed to make such a specific speculation; if you find it unplausible, think back to Death Note (if you've played it); **I'm not sure Epig's deist views of designing a mafia game would allow for an overpowered, unlynchable Manhattan, but still...he was overpowered and unkillable in the comics and the Watchmen, as far as it's shown, are fairly designed up to lore

Russtifinko

Day 1 - 2nd vote for G-Man, finding his wording strange (Sloonei at 4, Ninja at 3)
Day 2 - misses vote
Day 3 - misses vote
Day 4 - 1st vote for ika, for behavior (tied with LoRab)
Day 2 - 2nd vote for MP, to keep binary lynch close (brings MP at 2, with Eloh at 3)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - indirectly considers llama's points on him having merits (Sloonei's defensiveness being off-putting)
espers - considers his D1 vote the most suspicious, but find there's need to develop his view further; then finds him "above-board" for content; finds him safe vote for D3, although based only on his stated suspicious (which he considers not to be much); D4, keeps espers as mild suspicion; then (at Scotty's inquiry), considers him top read; votes ika for behavior; profiles last teammate as somebody who didn't buss espers on D3, but did on D4
Read: I'm not getting any strong bad vibe from browsing his posts, especially since he got more engaged in the game - he's going deep into reading, relying on gut and meta, participating and challenging others with reads etc. - but some of the interaction above is spotty, just like with many others. He consented to the general view on Sloonei, finding his defensiveness off-putting the way llama put it, but he focused otherwise on Eloh and G-Man and voted late for the latter, in a lynch train that was hardly relevant (despite G-Man's actions being a hot topic). It sounds reasonable, but it's also susceptible to a tin foil version of planting a suspicion on Sloonei to look good, then act in different directions. Just like with Bass, I will be absolutely floored if Russ would turn out to have been part of a surviving Mafia (alongside espers) which totally slacked off almost two Days in a row. His "mild suspicions" on espers, that failed to materialize into a vote until D4, have been brought up before and it was what he started getting some heat for. His early vote for ika technically makes him look good, but since ika totally bombed his exit, it's still believable that he would have been bussed without hesitation. His defense for Eloh makes me feel better, overall. As I've said, I'm reading a Russ who is putting a good game since he got into it for good. I can't decide at the moment how strongly, apart from the shoddy details mentioned above, I suspect him.

Scotty

Day 1 - Votes Eloh (vote hardly relevant within the eventual dynamic of the lynch: Sloonei currently at 1, Ninja at 2, G-Man also having a vote)
Day 4 - 1st vote for Cookie (ties her with LoRab and ika)
Day 5 - 2nd vote for Eloh, finds her very likely Big Figure (Eloh at 2, DDL at 1)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - wasn't pinged by his game; anything else is in context with other reads or discussions

espers - inquires him on reads; talk about D0 results; the rest is in context with other reads, discussion, other players' reads on espers; agrees the replacement is very suspicious; adds ika to his lynch options, based on MP and Russ reads
Scotty is hunting and failing so far, something that he himself acknowledged after the Eloh fail. I'm naturally inclined not to suspect mislynchers right off the bat (being a grave one myself, usually) and most of Scotty's hunting doesn't look to be superficial, tunneling or fake to me. His lack of Sloonei ping and odd voting got him in trouble after D1, to which him being NK'd is a strong indicator that it couldn't have been a sacrifice within the Mafia team. That being said, his shallow surface direct reads on the confirmed Mafia members, compared to always bringing other players in context with them, is pretty undesirable. I will say this, I will basically flip barking mad if Manhattan screwed up and resurrected a baddie Scotty (either Inmate or Moloch), because it feels like a defenseless situation to deal with. His death and rezz doesn't exonerate him from the odds of being bad, but I cannot say I'm getting bad vibes from him right now. I'm noticing a lot of focus from him on G-Man and I'm wondering if there's not something subtle about it; he seems to try to find a bad angle on everything G-Man is doing, even that D3 vote situation, which I personally still can't wrap my head around as being indicative of G-Man being bad - this may be slight tunnel-ish, but I makes me wonder all the more if Scotty isn't aware of something.

In case you're wondering where's the read on MP, hol' up for a few more hours. I'm probably risking again to drag my reads (and my sanity) near to the late deadline hours, but in case I'll feel that'll be the case, I'll focus right away on a shorter version and provide it.
I've responded in pink. I agree with your analysis of Russ and Scotty.
I need to go to work, will be back off and on later on. I thought maybe Derf was dead at this point, because I don't remember having two silencers. I guess I'll wait an hour and see. It does seem odd for both to be posting elsewhere.

If that;s the case, dammit derf. One of those guys is AT LEAST good, so why eliminate a good vote?

Here he responds to a few comments by Cookie, which I believe can be found starting here:

Scotty wrote:I'm on my phone again, so I'm not quoting anything, but this in response to @Cookie, point by point

-fair enough about your read of MP during the night phase. Though I'm usually in the camp of letting things out in all phases, I completely understand the reasoning of not revealing too much at night for fear of NK.
But your reasoning the next day was sparse at best, so I don't necessarily see a connection between your fear of being NK'd and your openness during the day.

-cheering up sad MP: awwww ok I'll let this pass
- on my read of your reads and is it mocking? Well, it might read as inherently mocking, though I define mocking as the intent of getting a negative emotional response out of someone. If that's the case, I apologize. That's just how I read your reads, nothing more than that.
-thinking Mp is mafia- ok. I just can't help but wonder what you're thinking when you point out something suspicious and in the same breath counter yourself with a positive viewpoint.

This one is BS-
-your skipped the first 2 days because your friend wasn't playing? So that's why you don't have a read on GMan or Bass? I don't believe that for a second. I seem to remember you finding the "in-topic" button underneath player names to look through people's history. The thread is here. I was literally DEAD for 2 days and I can still read through all the garbage of those days to get at least a viewpoint.
I'm rather new to mafia myself, and don't really know how anyone plays either (except like 3-4 people, though I don't know if they are civ in mafia in BoB). Maybe I'm just more intuitive than the normal person with how forums work but I find it hard to believe even if you're just getting used to these people's play styles, it exempts you from having an opinion either way.
Could it be that your teammate was lynched first day and you so became overwhelmed with your sudden responsibility of being on your own, posting thru your own merits, that you didn't know how to get a good grip on the game?
I don't know where you come from, and I don't know how your compatriots usually play there. But I don't see the excuse of your friend not playing as valid even in that home forum.

-if you listed your top suspects, you claim it should appear that you think they are mafia: that's not completely right, and your reasoning was weak at best. With no clear read on potential mafia, adding people to that suspect list holds little merit, IMHO.

-How do you know espers left for RL reasons? I don't remember anyone posting that reasoning, let alone him.

And the vote:

Scotty wrote:Yeah I was holding out hope but it's been an hour and so I just voted Cookie because I'm not convinced otherwise

VOTE #3: LoRab

Spoiler: show

Her first mention of Cookie on Day 6:

LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
LoRab wrote:Into the games means interested and posting as much as one can. Your post seemed to imply that I was blowing the game off and just wasn't into it any more. Did I misunderstand?
Yes.

LoRab wrote:Please don't lecture me as how the game works--I've been playing for a while now, thanks.

LoRab wrote: I'm civ. I really think we need to lynch the big bad this cycle, or at least moloch. I am not either of those. Are you? I don't really suspect you, but I figured I'd ask.
I am not.

LoRab wrote:But let's pretend that we all believe that I'm civ. Whom do we think is not?
Would be nice to hear from you on this matter as well.
And I seem to be cranky today, so I apologize.

I still suspect GMan. I think he's more likely Moloch than Big Bad, but my susupicion of him hasn't changed.

Cookie I still think could have been playing the newbie card a big. And, now that s/he (sorry, don't know everyone's gender around here yet) doesn't have anyone to discuss things with, and having been called out in the thread for it, is posting more content and being more confident.

MM I can't help but shake off a suspicious feeling. He (he?) seems to have someone different every day to say, yeah vote for them they're bad, without giving any reason. And then moves on to someone else. And, yes, I've been one of those people, so I admit that colors my thinking, but it doesn't feel right. But maybe Moloch. And, since Epi said something about not liking self-targeting somewhere, could fake being silenced.

MP I really doubt is bad. I don't think a baddie or indy would put that much work into getting Elo lynched. His passion for that case sounded real. I really think he believed it.

Tiny Bubbles, as I said, could have missed a PM. That MM seems to have been silenced seems to make it appear that something else happened with the kill. I can't remember who posted the idea that only 1 kill is inherited, which is an interesting thought. I also wonder if a silence came from elsewhere.

I don't have strong opinions on anyone else.

Does anyone have a Rorschach list handy?

LoRab mentions Cookie (not in a suspicious way) when the topic of Rorschach's list is brought up:

LoRab wrote:@Cookie: I've been on Rorscharch's list since day 2, so avoiding that list hasn't been my goal for a while, unfortunately.

@Scotty (I think it was Scotty): I don't think we should be trusting Ozymandias as a role, based entirely on source material.

linkitis: @Ricochet: I meant a complete list of all of the players throughout the game who would be on the list--not just the ones who are still living.

Sees someone thinking Cookie is possibly civ:

LoRab wrote:I'm frustrated, yes. I've had suspicion of me since day 1 and it's now day 6 and I know I'm not bad. So, yes, it becomes frustrating.

Why do you think MM and Cookie are both civ?

Looks like here may be where she pivots to considering Cookie. Cookie tries to explain the response further bu LoRab says she's not buying it. TIMING NOTE: This happened one hour after Scotty voted for Cookie.

LoRab wrote:
Cookie wrote:
Scotty wrote: -How do you know espers left for RL reasons? I don't remember anyone posting that reasoning, let alone him.I'm assuming this because why else would he leave with no explanation unless he was leaving because of being lynched out? Regardless, he wasn't interested in playing this game, so I doubt he'd be interesting in helping out the final mafia.
Wait, what?!

Just a few posts later:

LoRab wrote:Leaning towards voting cookie at this point. But want to hold off in case I need to save myself.

And her vote:

LoRab wrote:I'm starting to fall asleep, so need to vote. Voted Cookie. My gut just keeps telling me she's bad. Imperfect reasoning, but my gut is my gut. So, that's where I'm going.

Russtifinko wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?
DDL, it worries me that you care, frankly. I mean, I know some people just like to figure out all the roles. But baddies have a lot more to gain from figuring out who Bernard is than we do.

As far as votes from yesterday, I still can't figure out a civ reasoning behind G+Man's vote. He knew he was probably the last vote, with 2 silences and Tiny being inactive. He clearly enjoyed the power position he was in, but basically didnät base his vote on his feelings on the players at all, the way I read it.

G-Man wrote:Oh this scenario is almost too delicious to be true. Decisions decisions.

G-Man wrote:I don't feel the need to protect either of the two players with 2 votes.

G-Man wrote:But I don't feel the need to vote for them either.
It's a chaos vote, plain and simple, and on D6 that doesn't sit right with me. By this point, civs need to be having reads and ACTING ON THEM.

G+Man has probably moved up to my #2 lynch candidate based on that, although for me LoRab is a clear #1.

Sorry, I know I've been a bit more scattered today, suspicion+wise. But weäve had two civ lynches in a row that frankly were pretty terrible, and most people have played a part in that. So I feel less trusting today than previously.

Linki: I got the picture thing.

G+Man, what!!! You clearly knew when you were posting that you were the last vote to come in; why are you now acting like you were praying for someone to swoop in a get the correct person last minute when you made it a 3+way tie!! We had discussed extensively that MP and MM were out, and it was pretty clear Tiny wasn't coming back. The situation wasn't disappointing, you loved it!

I'd have to go back and look, but I'm positive we've had multiple players silenced before. Does anyone know whether it has happened every day! And G+Man, are you saying you're convinced MM is mafia! Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.

Holy shit, dude, you are rocketing up my list today.

Holy heck, dude. Calm down. Or are those exclamation points supposed to be question marks?

Yes, I intentionally voted for MP07 to cause a three-way tie. I was hoping MP07 would get taken out and he was. I was too caught up in my grand theory of MP07's master evil plot to vote any other way. I suspected him far more than either LoRab or Cookie, so I did at least vote for who I was most suspicious of.

While I loved having the power to force MP07 into a tie, there's nothing wrong with me calling the poll results disappointing after the fact. I was wrong about MP07 and there's a chance that Big Figure wasn't among the votes.

No, I'm not saying I am convinced that MM is mafia. What I'm saying is that, if you're going to run with the theory that Big Figure was faking being silenced, you have to assume it was MM. I'm not ready to make that assumption. Heck, MM could be a civvie and faked being silenced. It's worth considering that Big Figure could have kept notes on how many silencings were happening in case the opportunity arose to fake it but it's also a theory that has a few too many variables to run with this late in the game. I'm just throwing out food for thought.

Anyone want to actually look at the votes from yesterday in depth?

Russtifinko wrote:What does everyone else think about the poll yesterday! I'm going to look closer at it now. I just realized that IF a baddie were in a lynch poll that close, theyäd probably want to save thier vote to protect themselves. Although in that scenario they look even worse if they cast a deciding vote on a civ, so who knows. If they weren't one of the main candidates being discussed, they could pretty much blend in wherever, I suppose, or create chaos, for example, by creating a 3+way tie.

Linki: thank you! Someone agrees that LoRab isn't trying that hard. Although I'm a little surprised it took you that long to come around.

And I get what you're saying about Cookie, but I still don't buy her being bad. Every time I've played with a new player, they get accused of parroting others. They don't have the benefits of experience or meta to go on, and frankly, when you're getting your bearings, following others, even subconsciously, is just the easiest way to keep oriented.

G+Man, what are we supposed to be figuring out!

The poll yesterday was disappointing to me. I can see why Made wouldn't vote but it sucks that two other people missed it as well. It's tough to read late polls like that when 30% of the voters miss. It would be interesting to know who was definitely silenced and on which days. Day 6 was the first time I think I recall seeing two players silenced at the same time. We know MP was Civilian, so he was almost certainly silenced. It's too risky a gambit for a civ who is under fire and flailing to fake being silenced. But that leaves MM as a possible silence faker. In general terms, Big Figure could have silenced MP07 and then pretended to be silenced, making us think Derf is still around or some secret shenanigans are at work. That's a bold assumption that could be made only by paying attention to silencing patterns and feeling very good about the civvie silencer being dead already or else someone would be bringing hell down upon someone faking it. But this all boils down to how you feel about MM.

Dragon asked me what the picture I posted meant. I thought it was obvious but apparently not.

Figure it out yet Dragon?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:@G-Man: wtf does that mean

It's not hard to figure out. Think about it.

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