The Syndicate

Maybe I missed it- did I deflect Sorsha on Night 4? If so, who was the original target?

Other than impacting Stink Spirit's wincon, what did the bath tokens do?

Of course the one player I didn't have time to write a case on would be the big baddie.

Sorsha, you almost made me feel bad for suspecting you for so long. I won't make that mistake again. You're now officially on my perma-sus list.

G-Man wrote:-DrWilgette
-Scotty
-S~V~S
-Sorsha
-Bubbles
-Elohcin

This was a list of everyone I targeted,in order, as Chichiyaku. I was hoping you guys would have wondered what it was and put the pieces together. I guess deflecting Sorsha night 4 led to Sig's death? Who was the initial target.

Sorry about my case on you, Dom. From now on everyone should just ignore my Keyser Soze tinfoil theories. My spreadsheet analysis was totally right about Niju though. That's a moral victory, for what it's worth.

What did the bath tokens do? I tried to give them to people I thought were civ. Looks like I did okay.

Also, it was for the best that I died when I did. I've been sick as a dog for the last 30 hours and probably would have slept through most of the day phase.

Death is but release
Not the end of all things but
A new beginning

-DrWilgette
-Scotty
-S~V~S
-Sorsha
-Bubbles
-Elohcin

I voted for Niju. Feel free to join me.

I'm pretty sure it's Dom and Niju. Working up Dom's case may have taken me deep into tin foil territory but it fits in a lot of ways. My best guess is Dom is Yubaba and Niju is Kashira.

Anybody care to join me? I'll vote for either of them. Right now there is one vote on Niju. Are people willing to shift votes?

Dom wrote:
G-Man wrote:If SpiderGramps is still alive and has an extra vote to spare, then yes, my "team" has an extra vote.
Not sure I buy it.

If we're so close to lylo (you've said it) why don't you care if you're lunched.

Because I'm G-Man. Nothing about me is conventional.

If SpiderGramps is still alive and has an extra vote to spare, then yes, my "team" has an extra vote.

Dom wrote:Aren't. My bad.

Why aren't you worreid you're going to die.

Because I already won two of the three games I was playing at the same time, and if I die and lose the game (I'll always equate death with losing, regardless of host-designated wincons) then it's like Meat Loaf said- two out three ain't bad.

Besides, I have no regrets. I played the way I wanted and had fun, so even in death I win. Besides, it's not like the civvies can't still win without me. I'm not an essential cog in the civvie machine. None of us are. Once you accept that, accepting the fact that the poll is 3-1 in your favor and the baddies have a manipulator at large who could secure your fate if they see fit becomes easy to swallow.

Dom wrote:G-Man why are you worried that you're going to die?

Did you mean to ask this or "why aren't you worried that you're going to die?"

I feel more strongly about Niju than Eloh. I still can't help but think an overwhelmed and busy civ would ask to be replaced.

Dom wrote:But it doens't look like Nju and Elo can be bad together. :/

What makes you say that?

Sorsha has a point about not spreading the votes out. I'm trying to sort out whether Eloh fits better as Kashira or Yubaba. Niju fits great as Kashira. Then again, Zebra pulled both of them off the poll. Is anyone taking that to heart? I think she was going on gut or to make us keep thinking. If the former, I don't know how reliable Zebra's gut is.

Sorsha, I just...

Is it ironic that I can't commit time to a Sorsha case now that she's voted for me?

Home now, so family time takes precedence.

Golden wrote:Don't read for two days
Next thing I know, no haikus
G-Man the Coward

Not a coward but
This is the one time you can
Call me a quitter

I don't know if I'll have time to put a full case together on Sorsha. Niju's took longer than expected and Sorsha has more posts to comb through. I'll do my best at the end of the day but that will be cutting it pretty close to the deadline.

Why Nijuukyugou could be bad:

Voting Data-
Day 1- 8th overall, 3rd vote on Matt
Day 2- 12th overall, 7th vote on Matt
Day 3- 7th overall, 3rd vote on Quin
Day 4- 9th overall, 4th vote on Soneji
Day 5- 5th overall, 4th vote on DFaraday
Day 6- 5th overall, 2nd vote on a2thezebra

Niju's Day 4 and Day 6 votes are understandable, as she was the counter-wagon both of those days. Her spotty participation has her voting late quite often. It could be genuine or it could be strategic for a baddie who is genuinely busy in real life to let the day play itself out and vote as necessary when time permits.

Posting Observations-

I'm just going to to post all of her posts in order here since she only has 12. I'll add commentary in between.

DAY 0- She gets back from her travels. Nothing meaningful here because it's Day 0:

Spoiler: show

DAY 1- This post comes about 3 hours before the deadline. Due to changeable votes, I do not know who all had votes on the board at this point but she suggests there are many. She states indifference to the suspicion on Wilgy, G-Man, and Llama. She also decides to vote for the player with the most erratic behavior (Matt) without actually examining anyone else with votes. This vote (is it careless, reckless, nefarious?) puts Matt in the lead at the end of the day:

Spoiler: show

DAY 2- Once again, no sign of Niju until the waning hours of the day phase:

Spoiler: show

The contents of her post can be summarized this way:
-What gives with wigging out on LC over suspecting Wilgy of being Stink Spirit?
-Poor Elohcin can't catch a break (is this defending a friend or a teammate?)
-I read and didn't see anything else worth commenting on
-Matt is still weird and sig made some good points about him

She goes from 'Matt is erratic' to 'what sig said,' but she never expounds upon her own reasoning that leads her to vote Matt again. She also posted an OT post, for what it's worth:

Spoiler: show

DAY 3- Yet again, she shows up with just a few hours left on the clock:

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:Holy crap - busier week than I thought Catching up. Stand by.

nijuukyugou wrote:As usual, I apologize for my absence. I didn't even realize I hadn't been on my computer, let alone here on the site (save popping in on my phone during breaks at work) since Tuesday night, and I don't even remember what I did then. This week back to work has been a killer on my sleep after spring break, and combined with having to do lesson plans/grading again in the afternoons while trying to catch a nap...is precisely why I'm only in small games until summer, and barely hanging on to those at that. I don't promise to be here more often, as I don't suspect I'll be any less busy/tired, but I'll attempt to play a bit of a more involved game.

Anyway, my sleepy read-through brings a few thoughts, much the same as ones I previously held. Wilgy's acting nuts still, and seems to be REALLY after Eloh, or perhaps at this point really after her opinion? Like, really wanting her to respond to his rainbow list? So much that he doesn't want others responding to it? What's his game, I wonder. Someone mentioned (I believe SVS?) that he seemed less "sweet" this game and more caustic (not the word used, but it's the first that comes to mind right now and I'm sticking to it). Still of a mind that he's acting weirder than usual for perhaps *secret* reasons, as others have stated, but very curious about him.

I intended to make more commentary (hence "a few thoughts"), but I'm tired (I know, whine whine whine, repeat repeat repeat) and my allotted mafia time for this evening has run out (and I'd like to wash my tentacles after running--err, swimming? Gliding? before it gets too late). The case and arguments that have stood out to me the most are the ones on Quin - from what LC pointed out, it does appear that Quin has been subtly building a suspicion of LC, and pushing ideas while keeping a distance from ideas (regarding the Wilgy quote). And the vote that untied the llama/Matt lynch in the middle doesn't look so great, either. So, gonna vote there.

Yay, time for showers and rest!

More promises to get more involved and stay caught up. Observations that Wilgy is still different. Brief mention of possibility that S~V~S is being chippier than usual. She then gloms onto the case that sounds the best, mentioning Long Con's arguments for a Quin lynch. No original thoughts; she just goes with someone else's case. Perfect for brushing any blame aside, because, you know, 'LC's pretty words made me do it.'

Keep in mind that Niju and I are the only unconfirmed Quin voters. If you believe that I am civ, then Niju is the only other person on that train with a question mark. Her vote put Quin up by two at a time when the votes were spread. My spreadsheet tells me that this could be a possible save vote on a teammate with one vote already (Eloh and DrWilgy are the only possible candidates left). Her vote was all the buffer that would be needed (unless there were unannounced extra votes by Kashira or SpiderGramps).

She does point out, however, that she hadn't logged into the site since end-of-day Day 2. If this is true, then she couldn't be Yubaba because Yubaba silenced S~V~S during Night 2. She could have put the request in right after her vote (if Yubaba) or perhaps the host allowed teammates to make that call. Very hard to say.

Speaking of nighttime absences, remember how I said that we had all posted during Night 3, complicating the mystery of who Yubaba could be? Yeah, I done goofed. Niju has a post in her history marked as Night 3 but was actually posted during Day 4. That will teach me not to blindly trust the in-topic post history page.

DAY 4- Though marked Night 3, she shows up- anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Less than two hours before the deadline:

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:Oh, boy! Votes!
Elohcin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Wilgy will respite then, and figure out whats going on with himself...

Eloh I do think you are bad, but I don't want to be mean. Out of what happened last night though I think Ji and DF look the worst.

I'll get it right next time LC. I promise!
Do you mean Soneji and DF? And what makes them look the worst to you? Their voting?

@ SVS, thanks for your opinions.

I think we need to get focused. I see several of us are in agreement on finding various players suspicious. We need to agree on one and not spread the votes. As I said, I need to look at wilgy with fresh eyes. I think I failed to do it Day 3. I will back off of him for now and try to look elsewhere. I know he thinks I'm bad, but he's wrong.
And yet, the votes are pretty spread. Hmm.

Long Con wrote:nijuukyugou gets my vote for the time being. She hardly here, and when she's here she has basically echoed popular points of conversation (Wilgy's weird, Matt was suspicious) and it felt like she was buddying me as well. So, she's my current top suspicion.
This is a mostly valid and accurate assessment of my playing. I have been playing a horribly lazy game (really, rather lazily lately, but in this game, especially) without much original thought. Eloh's right about my being on break and getting back into things, and so I'm "conveniently" busy, so it would seem (she didn't say that, but someone else did). Buddying? Not really. I gave stock your Wilgy hypothesis and followed your last case, but I'm not ready to be buddies yet. You're still a sneak, but I'm trying this new thing called "LC didn't totally bamboozle me in Rocky and Bullwinkle, so try not being automatically suspicious." I hope it doesn't bite me in the ass :P

Long Con wrote:I haven't really changed my opinion much today, my gut still says nijuu is the one, so my vote will likely stay there.
I'm flattered, but spoken for *bats eyelashes*

So, as the votes currently stand, it looks like I need to save myself, especially since after this post, it's unlikely I'll be back in the thread for the night (I've procrastinated with schoolwork that I may or may not still do). I see that people who are voting for Soneji are mostly doing it because of a sig vote, and most people posting seem to agree that sig is civ. I would agree, since sig is not following a pattern that he tends towards when he is bad (it's a specific quirk, and I'm gonna pull an Epi here and not reveal exactly what this quirk is for the sake of future games). This isn't a particularly strong case against Soneji, and I haven't really had any pings from him so far, but this is mafia, and I do get bamboozled quite often, and I kinda don't wanna die, so I'll put my vote there.

As for suspicions (so I'm actually contributing at some level), DFaraday, upon closer reading, makes me itchy. I don't like that he's so quick to agree with Wilgy's case on Eloh, and his votes stink (but hell, I guess mine do, too ). There was also a comment he made early in the game that caught my eye, but for the life of me, I can't find it now in my ISO, and probably only caught my eye in context. That is a pretty much useless comment to make right now, but I'm getting more and more tired and more concerned about spending too much time on mafia this evening when I have things to do. I'll try to look for it later should I survive. And while I'm still mostly in the camp that Wilgy is acting weird as Mr. StinkMonster, I'm also up to looking at his behavior/tone in a different light (AKA baddie light), since I've been doing the "don't let obviously suspicious behavior get away from you" sort of thing in mafia since Biblical. But that's a conversation for another day, methinks.

Okay, I'm rambling now and need to quit. I'm voting Soneji.

She owns up to playing a lousy game so far. She says she's not buddying up with Eloh. She observes that Soneji is picking up votes due to sig's suspicions. She agrees that sig seems civ but warns that the arguments against Soneji are weak. She votes for Soneji out of necessity.

She also mentions suspicion of DFaraday for the first time ever. Like right before he kamikaze switches off of Niju and onto Dom, attracting just about everyone's hairy eyeballs. Add it up- she says, yeah, sig is probably a civ; he dies that night. She says the reasoning for Soneji is weak; turns out it was dead wrong. She starts to suspect Faraday; turns out she's right. What a string of convenient ideas in such a short span. It's a trifecta of perfection that could have helped a less under-the-gun baddie shuck and jive their way out of the spotlight. Lucky for her, Zebra took her out of the spotlight on Day 5 by removing her from the lynch poll.

DAY 5- With an extension on her life, Niju posts this, mid-day phase for a change:

Spoiler: show

Takeaways here: "Yeah, my game sucks but I'm not the only one with crappy participation" and "I'm still suspicious of Faraday."

Spoiler: show

"Busy, busy, busy. Gonna vote DF. Busy, busy, busy."

DAY 6-

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Dom wrote:Elo's not on the poll.
**dances a jig**

I'm SHOCKED!! Haha. I guess someone believes in me Woot!!

linki: If I were bad, then I would have made sure you have red. I would have voted for a teammate once I knew they were doomed. Don't ya think?
Whoever believes in you strongly enough to take you off the poll also believes in Niju enough to take her off the poll. I wouldn't be surprised if they're just going with the likely lynch options for the following day.
Why would someone do that?
To get people off of "easy" votes. For fun. The same reason why people like to create ties - for informational purposes (or to create chaos. Or fun again). Lots of different reasons. Depends on the player who has the role, I suppose.

S~V~S wrote:Not dissimilarly to Turf Wars, I think we may be analyzing ourselves into a corner.

I think LC was a choice made by someone not paying attention to the game. Plus LC was pushing for Niju.

I am voting Niju for now. With the exception of Faraday her votes are iffy. LC suspected her, she isn't paying attention.
I've certainly been paying enough attention to notice THAT. I ain't that clumsy. Gimme some credit :P I agree about the NK though - I am super curious about LC's NK. Weird ass choice. To make me look bad? Clumsy? For shits and giggles? Hmmm.

So, even though it's been re-hashed, for my own purposes of getting this out of my brain, I'm going to talk out thoughts on voting here. Last vote, worst votes look like zebra, Eloh, and G-man for missing it. It also seems Wilgy had a last-minute change from the thread, so while that sealed at least a tie between LC and DF (if we're assuming 3 votes heads could be in play)...well, actually, that doesn't look so bad. It does create confusion and chaos, but in a good way? I guess? Chaos can be good, especially in that case.

But Eloh does make a point that baddies may have seen their teammate going down and let it happen with votes, so at least one of the DF voters is likely a baddie if we're on that train of thought. Hmmm, to take the easy route, or speculate and tinfoil? Last time I tinfoiled, it wouldn't have turned out so great (re: Rocky and Bullwinkle and my CERTAINTY that LC was bad and tricking me), but thankfully, I was the only one to do so at that point in the game :P

Personally, I don't want to die, and I'd like to catch another baddie. Two votes on me already with (assumed) manipulation still in play today is not good for my health. I'll rehash what's been said by me and others: someone out there loved me yesterday for a reason and whisked me off the poll. They gave us a shot at getting an actual baddie and it happened. I believe I will go with the more obvious (i.e., the stuff that stands out the most) to me rather than tinfoil craziness today. I'm not keen on spreading the votes, but I feel better about voting sprityo/zebra than G-Man based on the voting records/analysis posted, and because, although I appreciate the good words being put towards me by zebra, I'm always more suspicious of people being on my side than not. I've been a sucker for buddying far too many times in the past, and these tentacles make everyone suspicious

I will be at a festival this afternoon followed by a possible outing with friends in the evening, but I should be back later. I hope.

Elohcin wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:Why do I make empty promises on this site?

Oh wait - I didn't promise anything. Just hoped I would do the research case-y thing. Hmm, yes. Hmm.

I had more work to do today than I assumed (stupid insomnia last night required a stupid long nap this afternoon, which required me to leave work earlier than usual when I usually do my work) and just finished. I'm going to trivia soon and still need to shower and whatnot. So, maybe I'll be better and take more time for eloquent case-making and -looking another day, but I'm gonna just vote DF for reasons previously stated. Might check back.

No promises, though
What did you do during your state of "stupid insomnia"? You could have played mafia then. Or were you making that delicious looking pie you posted on facebook? I just don;t know about you this game.
Want to respond to this: I never do anything that would keep me up longer than necessary when I have bouts of insomnia, especially playing a stressful game like mafia. I'll generally play mindless Sporcle where I list out pantry items or do a crossword puzzle until I fall asleep again, which is hopefully within 20 minutes or so. So you won't see me on this site in the middle of the night until summer when I'm actually staying up that late :P

Oh, and the pie was delicious And all gone.

She was oblivious to the fact that I was silenced Day 5 and did not simply miss the vote. She also says that she suspects at least one of the Faraday voters was a baddie. On my spreadsheet, Eloh is the only unconfirmed player on the Long Con train and I know I'm a civ, so yeah, that's a pretty safe assumption there.

She votes for Zebra to avoid too much vote spread and felt better about voting Zebra than me- ouch, trying to set me up in case she's lynched and flips baddie?

She came back to say "oops" about me pointing out that I was barred from voting Day 5.

DAY 7- One post so far but the day's not almost over yet.

Spoiler: show

nijuukyugou wrote:
Dom wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:So... Have we noticed the trend of kills?

They keep murking players that keep the former wagons in tact. Baddies are ok with the way things are going and don't want to see a shift.

Niju must be spared today.
Who isn't okay with lynching Nju but you?
*jumps up and raises hand* Me, me! Ooh, pick me!

Dom wrote:Nju, who do you think we should lymch?

Same question for you Elo.
I feel a bit lost, but I do have thoughts.

Regarding myself, I coasted in the first part of the game, resulting in crappy posting and even crappier votes, and enough suspicion on me to garner votes, thus resulting in my having to save myself rather than think as critically as I'd like (resulting in - surprise! More crappy votes). The one day I was taken off the poll late-game, we caught a baddie. I was able to think more rather than think about saving myself.

The last lynch reminded me a lot of a particular day of BoB when the lynch was down to me and Bass, and Bass lost and came up (rather, "Seemed") civ. I was civ (the non-seeming kind). Either way, the baddies were able to make it so they would "win" either way - Bass voters looked bad because it appeared they lynched a civ, and I looked bad because...well, I was the second choice and appeared to be the "right" option versus the lynched civ. Thankfully, I was not lynched the next day, or any other day after that. I guess what I'm saying is last lynch, though with less people, was between two civs, designed to create a win-win for baddies. I'll keep repeating it: I was whisked off the poll the DF lynch day for good reason. Don't screw this up. Don't be duped.

Regarding others that stand out to me (mostly from the last lynch), Eloh's sideways vote for Sorsha in the last lynch looked sketchy as hell, but considering the actual lynch results, not as sketchy as it looked at the time. It was a way to avoid being on either lynch train, which was odd, but it would also be quite a risk to make herself so visible. Still, it's too close to endgame to brush that aside as impossible, especially considering the sketchy DF lynch day, too.

Sorsha's vote change was weird, too, about the same level of sketchy as Eloh. I understand the reasoning behind it (not wanting to spread too much so late), but it's like the opposite kind of sketchy from Eloh - weird, but also draws risky attention. Vote record is slightly better than Eloh's, however.

G-man looks the sketchiest to me thread-wise, especially in conversing with SVS during and after the last lynch. He waffles like crazy, talking himself in and out of voting (and I may be biased, since I was one of the choices and did not want to die), then immediately speculates after the lynch that he thought zebra was Oshira. SVS comments on this weirdness nicely:
S~V~S wrote:
G-Man wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Gman "I had her penciled down as raddish bro" but you didn't fight for her?
I didn't want to
Give the baddies any clues
If she was Radish

But you were OK with her being dead, so long as any of the baddies had no clues about her role?

When you & I were talking, I clearly said I was considering a vote for her and you did not try to talk me out of it. You actually said this:

G-Man wrote:
S~V~S wrote:You feel so helpless you don't have an opinion?
I feel helpless 'cause
Both Zebra and Niju are
Just 50-50

I like a little
More certainty when I vote
Even if I'm wrong
Granted, he did vote me instead , but the reasoning with not talking SVS out of it is weird. So weird. More subtly weird than the sketchy votes above, at least IMO, like he was backtracking? Like he was trying to sound/look helpful, but then having it shut down by SVS and Wilgy. Vote record is slightly better than Eloh's, but behavior is weirder and is making me itchy. He nicely avoided the last lynch in the end, too. Hmm...

As for others that don't stand out as much as bad, Dom voted first on zebra, which could be bad, but his going after DF throughout the game looks good. Wilgy acts weird, and I waffle between his being the Stink Spirit and bad (the voting behavior and tone is certainly not civ, or any civ I've ever seen), but he's not giving me the same vibes as those above. SVS has been bear-ified twice. Sure, this could be major baddie team self-targeting, but that seems a little overkill...

Argh. This is aggravating, and I feel like I'm starting to ramble, so I'm gonna stop. At this point, I'm most likely to vote Eloh (for behavior last two votes/vote record throughout the game) or G-man (for behavior stated and votes), followed by Sorsha. The others are tinfoil suspicions to the max. I'm hoping I don't have to try saving myself again, but that's likely, considering the conversations in the thread. But those are my thoughts. I'm gonna go ahead and put a vote on G-Man, after talking myself through that. I'll return at some point, tomorrow for sure, but now I've spent too long on this site and should probably do other things.

-She owns up to a lousy game so far again

-A pointless (to me) paragraph about a lynch in another game the last one reminded her of

-Throwing Eloh under the bus

-Picking the low-hanging fruit that is G-Man, emphasizing that S~V~S was starting to prod me more in the last phase. Fancy that- the baddies silence the one player most people think is probably civ after she prods the guy who is becoming the new hotness on the populist suspiciometer. Yes, S~V~S was taking a hard look at me but she can't ask any follow-up questions today, now can she?

-Her comment about me- "He nicely avoided the last lynch in the end, too. Hmm..." is the second time she has failed to recognize that I was silenced and could not vote. Stunning really, as I already corrected her on this matter once before.

-She throws props to Dom for his suspicion of DFaraday, reaffirms that Wilgy is probably Stink Spirit, and says there's too much WIFOM and convenience for S~V~S to be a baddie.

-She fleetingly considers Eloh, ranks me #2 and Sorsha #3. Then she just puts a second vote on me and says, "I'll return at some point." 'Busy, busy, busy.'

In summary- If Niju really wasn't on the site during Night 2, it's hard for me to see her as Yubaba. Kashira could very easily be her identity. We have yet to have ties and/or secret votes announced but Niju had two perfectly good opportunities to cast secret votes as Kashira- Day 4 and Day 6, when her neck was on the line. We never got an explanation of what happened with the Day 6 lynch. In my spreadsheet, it ended in a tie.

One thing I keep coming back to is this- why would a civvie stay in the game with such spotty participation holding them back and making them a target? As a civvie, wouldn't the natural thing to do be request replacement? As a baddie, there would be the temptation to see how far you can make it.

Her vote history is sketchy. Her post history is sketchy. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, is it safe to assume it's a duck?

Oh hallelujah! Praise the Lord and pass the collection plate! Google Chrome allows me to reopen a closed tab.

I just accidentally closed the tab where I'd been writing my case on Niju for the last hour.

And now I have to make up for the two hours I spent working on Eloh's case. Gotta get to work! I'll try to cover Niju and Sorsha both at lunch. Niju's a quick study. We'll see about Sorsha.

Eloh- there are at most two baddies left: Yubaba and Kashira. We don't know if Stink Spirit can win with the baddies. It's possible that a re-direct from Chichiyaku could have taken out Kashira already but that would mean one of Scotty, sig, or Bubbles would have to have been Kashira.

Why Elohcin could be bad:

Voting Data-
Day 1- 10th overall and 1st vote on DrWilgy
Day 2- 3rd overall and 2nd vote on Matt
Day 3- 6th overall and 1st vote on DrWilgy
Day 4- 8th overall and 3rd vote on Niju
Day 5- 8th overall and 3rd vote on Long Con
Day 6- 6th overall and 1st vote on Sorsha

Rather than tagging along late with any lynch trains, Eloh has chosen to vote sideways a few times. Her Day 1 vote could be something of a throw-away but she was mid-pack. Wilgy took som heat for his aggressiveness but that never translated into more than Eloh's vote.

Her vote on Matt Day 2 actually starts to look fairly innocent. She made it 2-1 in favor of Matt over DrWilgetter (who didn't get any more votes. Elohcin herself became the counter-wagon, though this came after Matt already had a commanding 4-vote lead. Faraday took the opportunistic baddie route and voted for Eloh, keeping him off of Matt's train. In such a situation, baddies will vote for teammates to help them look good for later.

Eloh's Day 3 vote spread things out to a fifth option, coming back to DrWilgy. It could be a ploy to stay off the Quin train (which kept blood off her hands for a third straight day) but she had already voted for Wilgy once and continued to be wary of him.

Day 4, she voted late-mid pack for Niju. This keeps her off of the Soneji train, steering her away from yet another mislynch. Until Faraday peeled off of Niju in favor of Dom, the vote was tied. Both Niju and Soneji were being suspected hard that day, so baddie Eloh could have been playing it safe by voting for the other heat-taking civ to tie things up or she could have been playing strategically to vote for a baddie teammate that looked like she might be going down. Had Niju been lynched and flipped baddie, we would be talking very differently about Eloh, if even at all.

On Day 5, Eloh makes a most peculiar vote for Long Con instead of Faraday, who looked like a flailing baddie at that point. To Eloh's credit, Zebra also voted for Long Con, possibly contributing to her own downfall. Eloh's vote was late-ish (8th out of 9) but it's hard to place. Either way, she was probably going to face scrutiny for this vote. Voting for the civ counter-wagon (Long Con was intentionally NK'd Night 5- a bath token night for Chichiyaku) always looks bad when the main wagon flips baddie. Had she voted late on the Faraday wagon, however, she still would have been scrutinized because baddie will bus teammates when the writing is on the wall and Eloh was already taking heat.

Day 6, she was not a poll option. Zebra intentionally removed her from the poll (remember, N5 was bath token night). Zebra seemed confident that we needed to look elsewhere. This is a potentially significant plus in Eloh's favor but as far as we know, Zebra had no additional information on which to base her decision. We have to assume Zebra made a gut read. I do not have much experience with Zebra, so I don't know how good or bad her gut read history is.

With three 2-vote trains at the time (Zebra, Niju, and myself), Eloh votes sideways for Sorsha. It's chock full of WIFOM- why would a baddie vote so conspicuously on such an important vote?

Posting observations-

Eloh to date has 68 posts, putting her 8th in post count, behind four living players, two dead players, and the host. She's been away and she's been sick during the course of this game, neither of which are fair for us to challenge as convenient excuses for not participating as much as some.

She misses a fair chunk of Day 0 and Day 1 but she comes back and catches up. She even pegs Long Con as civvie (true), me as civvie (unconfirmed) and starts with her suspicion of Wilgy's different tone:

Spoiler: show

Elohcin wrote:So far I am seeing a lot of pointed fingers for what seem to be silly reasons and even silly thoughts about if this or that behavior means that person is bad. I'm not trying to pick on Matt here b/c there were others as well.

Matt wrote:
soneji, yeah, I made a role claiming joke about Scotty with his tying comment, but it really did ping me too.

Also, is G-Man the type of player who always has some fun on Day 0/1, or should we be worried that his Haiku thing is some kind of sinister plot to destroy the town? Hrm.

G-Man wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Scotty wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Chaos seeding - planting the seeds of chaos and disorder.

All I saw from you Mr LC was pushing something that would've been considered rule breaking. It's one thing to borderline rule break yourself but supporting the dorty actions of others just feels scummy.

Linki - Hi Scotty. Wanna team up again this game?
Last time I asked that of you and I was bad.

Does that mean you are bad this game?
Idk, everytime I've asked I've been good so...

@Elo ypu can't go wrong with a LC or G-Man vote...
I beg to differ
Trying to recall if your
Civ game is this gruff
So far I am reading LC and G-man as good. You had surgery? I hope everything is okay.

Wilgy, I see you voted for yourself. Why? I hate when people vote themselves. No offense, but I think its kind-of stupid. I usually end up voting for the person who voted himself.

thellama73 wrote:
Long Con wrote: I think Scotty is Civ. I think Long Con is a dangerous man to mess with. And also, Long Con is a Civ, so stop trying to lynch him please.
Long Con, you are always so tricksy. I hope you are not tricking me today.
exactly my thoughts as I read this.

Back to misguided finger pointing, I think Wilgy seems the most wrong atm as I read through his posts.

I'm reading wah wah wah wah wah wah from sloon.

thellama73 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:We are back home from our mini vacation. I'm exhausted and injured, but had a wonderful time . I will catch up now.
Looking forward to your input, Eloh. What do you think of Wilgy, Long Con, Matt, Sloonei, and Soreji in particular?
I think wilgy is either misguided or bad. I think LC is a tricksy player but I am not seeing anything of too much concern so far. I think Matt is a nut , definitely a toss-up. I think sloonei is sounding like Charlie Brown's teacher. We really ought to come up with a catchy word/phrase for this type of behavior. Its when someone is posting and using good amount of words but isn't saying much at all. Soreji? Did I miss his/her posts?

G-Man wrote:Elochin absent
No fan of "I'm catching up"
Will cut slack today
You try staying active in the thread while at a kids museum with three little constantly looking in all directions, counting to three over and over again. We were having family time, sir. But I am home now with a stupid bruised coccyx. I am no longer a teenage, that's for sure :/ So I will have plenty of time to be involved as I lie here on my side with ice on my butt.

SO I know this post wasn't super organized but more of a modge podge of my thoughts. But I have a three year old who keeps asking me to read him a book. So it is what it is.

She serves up a WIFOM sandwich at night by saying she's glad she didn't come back later because she would have probably tried to save Llama because he tricks her a lot.

Spoiler: show

Day 2 she comes out against both Matt and Wilgy. This justifies her vote on Wilgy Day 1, her vote on Matt Day 2, and any future Wilgy votes:

Spoiler: show

Elohcin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Sorsha wrote:
thellama73 wrote:What does DF have to do with any of this?
Nothing. It was a throw away vote on someone who had no votes. Sorry if you're civ but I didn't want to get involved in the close vote/ tie situation.
GOT iT!!! sriracha is a non-commital type of baddIE!!

Games solved! Lets eat CAKE!!!

Okay this is my theory. I think Matt is bad bad bad. I think Wilgy is bad bad bad. Last game I was in with Matt he was bad. He tunneled me like nothing I've ever seen before. Anyone remember that? He talked about no one and nothing by getting me lynched. I think he and Wilgy are bad together and I think he has convinced Wilgy in BTSC to tunnel me this game. I am voting Matt today. If he isn;t lynched, I will vote him tomorrow. And the next day. And once he is lynched I will go after Wilgy. If you hate that I am going to play the game this way, hate it. I don't care. I REALLY think I am right about this and I am not letting Matt survive all game as a baddie again.

Elohcin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:I have returned from colleg and am no longer a Tem. (thank god)

Eloh, do you actually think I'm tunneling you?
I think you've let up a bit since I announced my theory.

Elohcin wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
Linki ~ I think Eloh is more involved when she is bad. When she is civ she tends to lose interest unless she has BTSC.
What you think is untrue. I am more involved in speed games where I can get my head around what is going on and keep up. I am less involved in big games b/c I have trouble keeping up. However, since 2016 has begun, I have only been in small games (except for one) and I have been equally involved in all of those small games whether good or bad.

As for the tunneling. Yes, I perceived Wilgy's actions as tunneling. It was only until I pointed it out, then he backed off a bit. But, that doesn't change the fact that it was tunneling to begin with and I stick by my theory. If Matt turns out to be bad, then I am almost sure that Wilgy is too.

@SVS, were you in the last game with Matt and me when he tunneled me? I have seen Matt tunnel, but I have never seen ANYONE tunnel like Matt did in that last game. He gets my vote, I don't plan on moving it.

S~V~S wrote:
Sure there is such a thing as civ behavior for individuals. Some more so than others depending on the situation. For the most part (everyone has exceptions) happy jolly joking Eloh has good BTSC; could be civ, could be bad. Cranky annoyed Eloh does not. This is mutually exclusive of tunneling. Based on this, not on tunneling, I would give only the bearest consideration to Eloh being bad. She seems annoyed in general with the way the thread is going ( not a criticism, Eloh, just an observation) and whil I am OK with it, I can understand why.

You are right that I don't like the way the game is going. I love some lightheartedness in games. I like to hear how people are doing and what's new in their lives. I like joking around a bit. But I also like people to take the game seriously. I think its a waste of my time when players act stupidly or don't care. I think it's disrespectful to the host as well, who has put time into the making of the game. And I know you aren't criticizing. I think you've made a pretty good observation. However, I think I have become a better player this year (taking on only small games) and I think my "poker face" is better. I still don't know how Epi can always seem to read me, but I think my playing has become more neutral and I have less of a baddie vs civ game and more consistency whether I have BTSC or not. At least I like to think so

G-Man wrote:Sorry for absence
Getting harder to sneak time
In on the weekends
Are y'all the kind of family that likes to go and do stuff all weekend? haha, Epi and I are usually happy to stay home and rest all day on Saturday.

She even defended herself from S~V~S's reasoning for thinking Eloh was good (detached Eloh tends to be good Eloh). Kind of odd to do but maybe she just didn't like having her civ game labeled detached/lazy.

Oh yay, she still thinks I'm civ, for whatever that's worth:

Elohcin wrote:dude, I was not threatening g-man. I think he's civ.

When Matt flips civ, Eloh doubts herself...

Elohcin wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Elohcin wrote:Okay this is my theory. I think Matt is bad bad bad. I think Wilgy is bad bad bad. Last game I was in with Matt he was bad. He tunneled me like nothing I've ever seen before. Anyone remember that? He talked about no one and nothing by getting me lynched. I think he and Wilgy are bad together and I think he has convinced Wilgy in BTSC to tunnel me this game. I am voting Matt today. If he isn;t lynched, I will vote him tomorrow. And the next day. And once he is lynched I will go after Wilgy. If you hate that I am going to play the game this way, hate it. I don't care. I REALLY think I am right about this and I am not letting Matt survive all game as a baddie again.
So... this was pretty strong stuff from Elohcin. I don't think she would be this bold as a baddie, to state her intentions to sink Matt come hell or high water, knowing he is a Civ. I'm open to other ideas on that front, but that's my impression on this: misguided and a little disgruntled from a previous game, but not malicious.
Boy was I wrong wrong wrong. This makes me wonder if I was wrong about Dr. Wilgy. I am now unsure. I am a bit busy atm and will be this afternoon. But, I will read the thread during Simon's wrestling practice this evening and thoroughly catch up. I kind of feel like I need to go back even and look at everyone from a new perspective.

...but maybe not entirely:

Elohcin wrote:Unfortunately I only know that I am town. I am not 100% sure about anyone else. However, SVS and G-man seem to be acting like helpful civs. Even though sorsha hasn't posted a lot, I am leaning civ on her. I think Wilgy is acting a little more sane lately but still unsure. Blooper seems to be more distant than usual which I don't like. I always read her as civ, but its possible she is bad. LC seems civ and so does sonjei so far. I don't know about you, Quin, but mostly b/c I have yet to play with you before (I think). We have a lot of quiet players. Who are your top suspects and why?

Look at that again though. She leans civ on S~V~S, G-Man, Long Con, and Soneji, one of whom was lynched and another NK'd. She feels less bad about Wilgy after he lightened up but also wary of Niju. Make of that what you will; it's an awfully soft pile of reads.

This post from Day 3 helps explain why she did not vote for Soneji on Day 4:

Spoiler: show

After a fairly non-committal Day 3, in which she only posted a few times, Eloh reverts back to Wilgy mid-pack and comes back to feel sad about Quin's lynch. Her opinions are in flux:

Spoiler: show

But she's still wary of Niju and ends up voting for her when it seems to be between Niju and Soneji:

Spoiler: show

Night 4 she ranks from bad to good the people who voted for Soneji:

Spoiler: show

Sig got NK'd, S~V~S seems to be presumed good by most players, Wilgy is the enigma, and Niju and Sorsha were already being theorized about. It's a pretty good ranking given the popular feelings floating around in the thread.

On Day 5, she calls out Niju for lack of participation:

Elohcin wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:Why do I make empty promises on this site?

Oh wait - I didn't promise anything. Just hoped I would do the research case-y thing. Hmm, yes. Hmm.

I had more work to do today than I assumed (stupid insomnia last night required a stupid long nap this afternoon, which required me to leave work earlier than usual when I usually do my work) and just finished. I'm going to trivia soon and still need to shower and whatnot. So, maybe I'll be better and take more time for eloquent case-making and -looking another day, but I'm gonna just vote DF for reasons previously stated. Might check back.

No promises, though
What did you do during your state of "stupid insomnia"? You could have played mafia then. Or were you making that delicious looking pie you posted on facebook? I just don;t know about you this game.

One of her biggest mistakes Day 5, making her look worse, is not thinking that Faraday is bad. Despite all her prior feelings that Long Con is possibly civ, she votes for Long Con over Faraday despite his kamikaze vote switch the day before that got Soneji lynched:

Spoiler: show

She posts an odd follow-up during the night:

Elohcin wrote:haha, I knew this would happen. I just knew it.

Eloh- were you referring to you being wrong about Faraday or Wilgy coming after you again?

She then sulks in her own uncertainty:

Spoiler: show

Her spirits are renewed by being taken off the lynch poll by Zebra. She celebrates by serving up a few WIFOM sandwiches:

Spoiler: show

After Niju shows up, Eloh has a change of heart about her:

Spoiler: show

But it doesn't last for long:

Spoiler: show

To sum it up, Eloh has been wishy-washy for large stretches of the game. She's leaned civ on people who have flipped civ but has a poor record of successfully leaning bad on people. She said she would have been tricked into saving Llama Day 1 and she didn't see what most others saw in Faraday.

In analyzing the Day 3 votes, I felt that Niju's vote for Quin (his 3rd overall) was suspicious and I stated that it could read as a vote to save a teammate who already had a vote on them at the time. Here's a look back at where things stood and who among them is left:

DrWilgy- 1 vote
Elohcin- 1 vote
Long Con- 1 vote
Quin- 3 votes
Soneji- 1 vote

If I have Wilgy penciled in as Stink Spirit, and I still believe that Niju's vote could indicate teammate protection, then...

Pretty cold though to return that Day 3 favor with a tying vote on Niju Day 4.

Eloh is a hard nut to crack. Her case certainly could be read as bad but it could just be Eloh being Eloh. Lynching someone else might reveal more about her nature, but it could also work the other way around.

Dom wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Dom wrote:Days of pushing G-Man to respond to suspicions, game is definitely approaching endgame, and now he wants to make cases and respond? OK

I'm not claiming that I get instant civ cred for voting DFaraday and helping build that case. I am claiming that makes me far from under the radar.

I'm sorry your theory is wrong.
Dom, I did not say that I belive the theory I wrote to be true. You're just first alphabetically.

Though I must say, your post would read a lot better without the condescending put-down paragraph that you chose to lead off with. Rather than just state that you're not claiming instant civ cred with Faraday, you choose to cast more doubt on me before I even post my other theories. Amusingly, your dismissive response is actually in line with the rest of my theory.

But anyway, I'll be back in a little bit with my theory on Eloh.
I've expressed doubt over you for days.
Question for you: do you think I'm bad or not?

You expressed doubt about me after other people made more substantive arguments/questions against me.

As to your question, I do not know yet if I think you are good or bad. You will probably not get a good rating out of me, just a lower level of suspicion. The only person that I've felt was civ all game so far is S~V~S, which is abnormal because I usually suspect her by default. She just seems completely genuine this game. She can only be Kashira anyway, so I can focus on the four of you who could be Yubaba today instead.

Admittedly, I have a tendency to look for the most complicated baddie scheme imaginable in a given situation. It's a character flaw and something that gets in the way of me being a more effective civvie. Everyone else has notable voting and participation data that sticks out against them. They are my usual suspects. Of the four who could be Yubaba, you're my Keyser Soze.

Dom wrote:Days of pushing G-Man to respond to suspicions, game is definitely approaching endgame, and now he wants to make cases and respond? OK

I'm not claiming that I get instant civ cred for voting DFaraday and helping build that case. I am claiming that makes me far from under the radar.

I'm sorry your theory is wrong.

Dom, I did not say that I belive the theory I wrote to be true. You're just first alphabetically.

Though I must say, your post would read a lot better without the condescending put-down paragraph that you chose to lead off with. Rather than just state that you're not claiming instant civ cred with Faraday, you choose to cast more doubt on me before I even post my other theories. Amusingly, your dismissive response is actually in line with the rest of my theory.

But anyway, I'll be back in a little bit with my theory on Eloh.

Why DOM could be bad:

Voting Data-
Day 1- Missed the vote
Day 2- 7th overall and 5th vote on Matt
Day 3- 8th overall and 2nd vote on DrWilgy
Day 4- 6th overall and 1st vote on DFaraday
Day 5- 2nd overall and 2nd vote on DFaraday
Day 6- 4th overall and 1st vote on a2thezebra

Posting observations-

Dom spent most of Day 0 asking questions, mostly of the 'are you bad?' variety. Day 1, he offers very little by way of constructive comments and mostly observes the thread. He throws some shade on both Wilgy and sig but nothing major. He misses almost the entire second real-time day of Day 1, which could be an instance of a baddie, not seeing any suspicion cast on him through the first 24 hours, allowing the thread to proceed in any direction but him. He is then also apparently absent for all of Night 1.

Using some suspicious-looking conversation between Matt (the runner-up train Day 1) and Llama to his advantage, Dom helps plant the seeds for the low-hanging fruit that was Matt while also laying some foundation work on his long-standing suspicion of DFaraday:

Spoiler: show

Dom wrote:
sig wrote:
Dom wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:D:
SVS should have high self confidence.

Dom, has your questions lead you to any interesting thoughts? I think it's odd that we have all these questions out of you yet no feedback responses.

*Kidnaps Sig*
Unfortuantely not. :/

Matt wrote: @sig dude in like every game we play together, you get lynched early, and whether I'm civ/indy/bad, I almost always say "omg we're lynching sig again? unbelievable". So for me to actually suspect you this early should tell you it's genuine.
This, thought, does catch my eye.

Why yes, my suspicion is genuine, yes it is, genuine indeed.
@Don, what caught your eye? Matt's post or his point on me?

Also what are your current thoughts on the game? Who is the most likely to be mafia.
Just caught up. Sorry I missed the vote, dont' know who I would have voted for.

I would vote Matt right now. That post of his bothered me. He REALLY wanted us all to think that was genuine, but there was no reason to not think it was. I want to try and read back and remember what he and Llama have said to each other.

Dom wrote:Most revealing in Matt's ISO was that he didn't like that Llama was "picking on the noob". Easy way to cast suspicion without actually having anything to suspect Llama for.

S~V~S wrote:I dropped a vote for now on Faraday (Dwarf) becasue his vote for Dom got my eye, and Llamas reaction to him taking a vote also got my eye. Either alone would not have earned a vote, but both? Something a-bbears to be going on there.
I didn't notice he had voted for me. That does strike me as odd, but I'm not sure it makes him bad. Why would he vote for me if that were the case?

Dom wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
DFaraday wrote:I'm voting Dom for now, since he seems to be posting a lot without contributing many thoughts.
Here is his vote post. Sorry for the confusion, just *bear* with me.
Yeah, I'm leaning baddie on DFaraday.

Matt wrote:
Dom wrote:I want to try and read back and remember what he and Llama have said to each other.
Not much. When SVS asked me about him, I avoided the question entirely and instead made mention of the greatest mafia team ever in the universe.

Dom wrote:Most revealing in Matt's ISO was that he didn't like that Llama was "picking on the noob". Easy way to cast suspicion without actually having anything to suspect Llama for.
Don't forget I was highly hypocritical by later sussing Wilgette myself, so in a way, my suss on Llama made no sense.

@Eloh - I like where your heads at. Unfortunately, you're wrong. I really hope you don't waste your vote on me all game, but hopefully for you, town will get rid of me today so you don't have to.

@Scotty - Ubad
Should we lynch you or DFaraday first?

Dom wrote:
Matt wrote:Haha I totally should but I get annoyed myself when I'm investing so much in a game and then others are barely playing and they use rl as an excuse, just like "whatevs you signed up dude, play". But anyway, yeah, sorry dude, next time I'll post lots more.
so....

was this a btsc slip or nah

In summary, Dom let the rest of the thread build a case against Matt Day 1 and then he stoked the flames on Day 2. He expressed no sorrow or regret for being wrong about Matt.

During Night 2, he calls Quin into question over his vote to tie the poll. Long Con had already been prodding and building a case on Quin that night and Dom fed into it overnight and into Day 3:

Spoiler: show

And some more conspicuous DFaraday comments:

Spoiler: show

He mixed it up with Wily a little but Wilgy never gained traction after it all and has remained on the back burner for people. It does, however, give Dom an excuse to vote away from the Quin train. Dom voted 8th, putting Wilgy one vote shy of Quin but then DFaraday voted next to secure a two-vote margin.

Late in Day 3, during Night 3, and on into Day 4, Dom jumps in to add a nudge to the suspicions of other people while once again reinforcing his ongoing suspicion of Faraday:

Spoiler: show

It's almost like he's looking for low-hanging fruit, yet when Soneji becomes the target du jour he expresses initial surprise but then endorses it:

Spoiler: show

Note that he winds up voting for Faraday anyway. Is Faraday really that suspicious to Dom or is it a long-game plot to look good once Faraday comes under scrutiny and gets lynched? Here it is almost as if Dom says between the lines, 'Yeah, you guys should totally vote for Soneji but I'm going to vote for the guy I know will flip baddie at some point.'

Day 4 was also the kamikaze vote by Faraday at the end of the day, breaking the tie between Niju and Soneji. Soneji got lynched and Faraday became an instant target, thereby giving Dom an 'I told you so' level of civ clout. It could all be coincidence and Faraday's vote could have been forced by Ani. Or it was a strategic play to thrust Dom into back burner territory, giving him a pass into the endgame stages.

Dom peppers Faraday during the night and lobbies for his lynch Day 5. He even takes a few shots at Zebra Day 5 as people continue to be uneasy with her bold assertions, while also throwing support at a few other popular lynch prospects being floated about at night:

Spoiler: show

Day 6, he spends his time considering other peoples' suspects but never offering any of his own:

Spoiler: show

When people are asked to offer thoughts on him, Dom pulls out his DFaraday card, because no baddies have ever done this sort of thing before:

Spoiler: show

He is then all too willing to talk about lynching Zebra, Eloh or Niju:

Spoiler: show

Which brings us to today, where Dom continues to fan the flames for low-hanging fruit:

Spoiler: show

In summary, this is a very nuanced theory, involving a very careful and very patient baddie. Dom offered little in original content in terms of suspicions on other players. He kept a running suspicion of DFaraday all game and gladly owned it when it was advantageous. He fed on the breadcrumbs of other players and whispered in our ears offering words of support for lynching other players. Looking back at his post history, you will very seldom find an instance of Dom defending players under suspicion. Long Con and sig both come to mind and they're both dead via NK.

His voting record is average but it's bolstered by the back-to-back Faraday votes. Dom is also fourth in post count, with 106 posts as of this moment. He's here, he's appears to be contributing by way of saying 'yeah, I can see that,' and he hasn't done anything remotely bad. If Dom is one of the last two baddies, he has done an exemplary job at it. He's hidden in plain sight, just like Golden the Coward

did in Economics.

I'll post my other write-ups tomorrow. They're more familiar theories and far less nuanced, so they won't take as long.

Oh my. My re-reads are yielding some very fascinating ideas. I hope I'm right or I'm going to make myself look silly here shortly.

No, I'm trying to pull the net tighter on the baddies. Both Yubaba and Kashira could be among the four of you I'm writing up cases on. I'm perfectly fine with nabbing Kashira today while trying to weed out Yubaba. That'd be even more ideal because nabbing Kashira out of you, Eloh, Niju, and Sorsha would mean we'd be down to one baddie in a field of three candidates.

Don't any of you be confused- I am not playing defense right now. I am 100% on offense and will be to the end. That's the best part about being a civvie at this point. I can play with full conviction, so even if you guys lynch me it will just mean that you'll take what I've said all the more seriously if the game doesn't end before the next lynch cycle.

Dom wrote:G-Man, this pivot in strategy is... interesting.

Why do you want to find Yububa today and not Kashira?

Because all of us could be Kashira but only four of us could be Yubaba. Aim small, miss small.

*put, not pur- stupid smartphones

DrWilgy wrote:G MAAAAAAAAAN

To quote my prisoner alter ego from Turf Wars, riiiiiiiiiiight.

Care to pur some reasoning behind that, Wilgy? Or is this just you being indy Stink Spirit again?

I just finished with dinner and this is what I log on to find? Sheesh. Tough crowd.

I will be voting for one of the players who might be Yubaba today. I'll work up cases on all four of them as I have time. Sorry if you were hoping for content sooner- it's a busy day at work.

Looking at the roles, I see Haku is under Yubaba's control unless Sen finds him.

HOSTS: Does "under control" mean that Yubaba can control Haku's votes until found by Sen?

Well crapweasels. Everybody posted during Night 3. I went back and checked:

Dom- 3 posts
DrWilgy- 3 posts
Eloh- 2 posts
G-Man- 2 posts
Niju- 1 post
S~V~S- 6 posts
Sorsha- 4 posts

So either Yubaba posted and just forgot to submit a silence request, intentionally withheld the silencing power for a night, or silenced the same player (DrWilgette) that her team NK'd.

The time has come to drop the haiku. It was fun but if Economics Mafia taught me anything, it's that gimmicks only hinder you as the game gets closer to the end. That and Golden is a coward.

There are seven of us left, including the Stink Spirit (unless other unannounced game mechanics have made it possible for Stink to be NK'd). That makes it 4-2-1. Not knowing Stink's wincon, we should probably assume that this lynch and a successful baddie NK can end the game. At most, there are two baddies left: Yubaba and Kashira.

Due to process of elimination, we know that DrWilgy cannot be Yubaba. I think some of us have had him penciled in as the Stink Spirit for a while. His different tone and aggressiveness could be a sign that he knows he can't die. We know that Wilgy cannot be Yubaba because he was silenced on an odd-numbered night, meaning Chichiyaku (if still alive) was handing our bath tokens instead of redirecting powers. Thus, if DrWilgy is bad, he can only be Kashira.

Long Con was the only other player who was silenced on an odd-numbered night and he is dead. Interestingly, nobody was silenced on Night 3. We should probably go back and see if there are any participation gaps covering all of Night 3. Unless there are any secret blocking abilities, it means that Yubaba simply dun goofed. There's always the chance that Yubaba tried to silence DrWilgette but why would baddies silence someone they're targeting with a NK?

I believe that S~V~S also cannot be Yubaba. She has been silenced twice now and there is no self-targeting. The only way for her to be Yubaba and silenced twice is for Chichiyaku to be alive both Night 2 and Night 6 AND to have targeted S~V~S twice AND for S~V~S to wind up as the redirected target for her own power. It's not impossible but highly improbable (we're talking 1-in-15 odds Night 2 and 1-in-7 odds Night 6). By my math, that scenario has a less than 1% probability of occurring. For my money, S~V~S cannot be Yubaba. Queen Bear can only be Kashira, if she is a baddie.

G-Man was silenced on Night 4. This means that I, if Yubaba, could have had the silencing power redirected back at me via Chichiyaku, if you want to consider me for Yubaba. That's a 1-in-11 probability, or 9.09%. If you choose to dismiss this option, then I too, can only be Kashira if I am a baddie.

We know Yubaba is still alive because S~V~S was silenced. This means that (given all of the aforementioned information) that Yubaba is one of these players:

-Dom
-Elohcin
-Nijuukyugou
-Sorsha

I am tempted to
Drop the haiku to make more
Detailed cases on...

Each one of us so
We can attempt to reason
Out the last baddies

Dom wrote:G-Man why do you think Eloh's voting record is better than Nju's?

Elohcin has a
Few more sideways votes which makes
Her harder to read

Technicolors have
Been revised to include the
Night kill of Bubbles

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

Rest in peace Bubbles
When you're the least suspicious
You're expendable

DrWilgy wrote:Baddie team is Gman and Elo

I think it's Niju
And then either Eloh or
Sorsha as last feb

DAY 1

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

Spoiler: show

DAY 3

Spoiler: show

DAY 4

Spoiler: show

DAY 5

Spoiler: show

DAY 6

Spoiler: show

Dom wrote:G-Man would you rather lynch Elohcin or Nju?

Right this second I
Would say Niju- her voting
Profile reads baddie

Come on you guys; night
Hiding is for cowards and
Golden ain't playing

Sorsha wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Elohcin wrote:It was 2/3 when I voted, and I'm sorry, I didn't think Soneji was bad. I am not going to vote for someone I don;t think is bad.
I was just thinking that I would expect a baddie to have avoided the lynch train on civ Soneji, and then I come in and see this post from you, Eloh. Who do you think are the baddies involved in the Soneji lynch, if any?
If I have to rank the Soneji voters, it would be Niju, Sorsha, Wilgy, SVS, then sig.
I don't blame you, or anyone else, for finding me suspicious for yesterday's vote. What happened yesterday is a perfect example of why I hate doing last minute vote changes and why I refused to do it the day before when LC wanted me to switch to Quin... This is what usually happens.

Niju is not on the poll today... That was an odd choice for Oshira-sama. I'm guessing some target switch was involved with it?

The last part of this
Post had me wondering if
Sorsha was Radish...

But then Zebra made
Strong statements about making
No assumptions in...

Regard to Niju's
Removal from the lynch poll.
I spent a good deal...

Of time trying to
Figure out if the subtle
Or stronger post was...

The bona fide hint
That one or the other was
Oshira-sama

S~V~S wrote:
G-Man wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Gman "I had her penciled down as raddish bro" but you didn't fight for her?
I didn't want to
Give the baddies any clues
If she was Radish

But you were OK with her being dead, so long as any of the baddies had no clues about her role?

When you & I were talking, I clearly said I was considering a vote for her and you did not try to talk me out of it. You actually said this:

G-Man wrote:
S~V~S wrote:You feel so helpless you don't have an opinion?
I feel helpless 'cause
Both Zebra and Niju are
Just 50-50

I like a little
More certainty when I vote
Even if I'm wrong

I wasn't concerned
With the thought processes of
Others- just my own

Dom wrote:
G-Man wrote: I did not miss the
Vote- I was silenced, thusly
Not allowed to vote
I think this only supports the hypothesis that Nju might have killed LC because she's not paying attention.

She's accountable
To her teammates though. Unless
One of Chichi's night...

Redirects took out
The Heads already there should
Still be two baddies

DrWilgy wrote:Gman "I had her penciled down as raddish bro" but you didn't fight for her?

I didn't want to
Give the baddies any clues
If she was Radish

DrWilgy wrote:Your are the triple head bro... Haiku... A 3 line poem.

I even asked the
Hosts if haiku was okay
Because I did not

Want anyone to
Think me being racist with
Japanese poems

Otherwise we've got
Two late sideways votes: Eloh
And Sorsha, or you...

Have to look at Dom's
Missed vote or the four people
Left voting Llama

Only one member
Of the Day 1 Matt train is
Still alive: Niju

I can see Llama
Telling his teammates not to
Try saving him but

Niju's vote does look
Suspicious in terms of the
Who and the when

Oh come on Wilgy
You can't just post that and run
Away. Let's fight.

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