Ok let's do this
Gman's Technicolor Vote Analysis
DAY 1
For those who don't know, here is how it works.
The first list, inside spoilers, is every vote made during the day that is being analysed:
nova - Avito
Marmot - Dizzy
Jay - Jack
Dizzy - Jack
Scotty - Sprityo
Epi - Juliets
INH - Juliets
Mac - Jack
Sprityo - Lapluie
DDL - Dom
LC - Avito
Dizzy - Avito
Jay - Sprityo
Dizzy - Sprityo
Dizzy - Avito
Jay - Jack
Marmot - Jay
Scotty - Jack
Marmot - Jack
Sprityo - Sprityo
Dizzy - Penny
Jay - Kyle
Scotty - Kyke
Dizzy - Juliets
Dizzy - Jack
Jay - LC
Jay - Wolbre
Scotty - Wolbre
Juliets - Wolbre
Jack - Wolbre
Epi - Lapluie
LC - Marmot
Mac - LC
Jay - LC
Dizzy - LC
Jack - LC
nova - Lapluie
Dizzy - Penny
Juliets - Lapluie
Jay - Lapluie
Mac - Lapluie
Dizzy - Wolbre
Scotty - Jack
Dizzy - Jack
Jack - Wolbre
Jay - Quin
INH - Lapluie
Mac - LC
Dizzy - LC
Jack - LC
Kyle - Jack
Now, we have the same list, but with only with the name of the voters. The people who are voted for are coded by color, whose key is shown below.
nova
Marmot
Jay
Dizzy
Scotty
Epi
INH
Mac
Sprityo
DDL
LC
Dizzy
Jay
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Marmot
Scotty
Marmot
Sprityo
Dizzy
Jay
Scotty
Dizzy
Dizzy
Jay
Jay
Scotty
Juliets
Jack
Epi
LC
Mac
Jay
Dizzy
Jack
nova
Dizzy
Juliets
Jay
Mac
Dizzy
Scotty
Dizzy
Jack
Jay
INH
Mac
Dizzy
Jack
Kyle
lapluie - green
LC - red
wolbre - light blue
Avito - yellow
Sprityo - purple
Jack - orange
Juliets - dark blue
other - no color
Now we analyse the people who got the most votes, color by color.
First, the lapluie wagon. It has some early adopters, Sprityo (who unvoted) and Epi. But it really caught steam when nova, juliets, Jay and Mac pushed it. INH hopped on it it near the end. The wagon seemed to be an alternative to the LC CFD that was formed at the point. In fact, the two wagons were tied. If LC flips bad, there is a high chance of baddies in this.
LC wagon next. Jay was a quick, and short, early adopter. It really started when Mac brought it up, followed by Jay, Dizzy and Jack. The same Jay, Dizzy and Jack would fumble around other wagons before coming back to LC around the end of the day.
Wolbre is another big story here. The votes came with a quick movement of Jay, Scotty, Juliets and Jack around the middle of the day, with Dizzy somewhat later, and Jack coming in again before leaving for LC again.
There are other wagons which I bothered to color, but I won't analyse them for now. The problem here is that we have no bad flips yet, so anything we obtain here is highly speculative (though I recommend we go back here once said scum flip happens). But we can try to spot some trends now. First is, that in spite of Day 1 chaos, all of the big wagons came from very quick burst. In one second a person had no votes, next second they were leading the poll. This is, at the same time, really easy for scum to hop in, and really hard for scum to stop (hence the main appeal of CFDs). LC, or lapluie, could have been a counter-wagon to LC, or wolbre. On the other hand, it could be that all three wagons were on civs, and scum was just coasting and blending.
The same actors can be seen in all wagons: Jay, Dizzy, Mac, Jack, juliets. I like to believe there was scum among those, blending, while another 2 or 3 scum were staying away from the main wagons. Would be a good way for scum to spread I think.