The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote:It's gorgeous a day today and I have not set foot outside yet.

Same. Not good. Need air. *F5*

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm about to call G-Man's workplace and claim he needs to sign for a package or something so he can get out of his meeting and reveal dat rogue.

If Quin is the rogue, we won't actually find out until later tonight right?

If that's how G-Man wants to play it. Slow-rolling and teasing.

I'm about to call G-Man's workplace and claim he needs to sign for a package or something so he can get out of his meeting and reveal dat rogue.

Damn MM you shimmied that in there in the nick of time.

Now I really hope I'm right. MM already made me feel like a doofus once in this game. :P

We don't have time for questions, it's vote or don't. I think it's Quin.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Would town Sloonei say "I can't believe I wasn't nightkilled!"?

Don't see why not.

I really think you should go back to Quin, MM. This feels quite wrong to me.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Vote Sloonei

why

Looking back at this day, Sloonei went from getting good vibes on Quin to bad in a 3 minute span, both after Quin said he was going to bed.

This happened after Jay shot down the case on me.

This happened while Sloonei had a few votes.

I'm not bothered. "Lynch the guy who went to bed" is not a case that ever sells me. I see a Sloonei who changed his mind when asked to reassess.

linki: somewhat, I guess. Manipulation implies intent though, and if that was intentional it was terrible. He left the door wide open for me to correct him.

Sloonei wrote:Why is Golden even voting for me?

He thought you were the best case when he left. He wasn't here for the Quin development, no idea what he'd think of it.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Vote Sloonei

why

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Can I just have my banner now?

Stop that.

I guess I'll just sit here an chew my nails off.

Do what you gotta do, G-Man.

INH has voted Sloonei.

This is one of those late game phases where paranoia is at maximum, and the only way to sort it out is to accuse everyone, even get votes on their faces, and watch the results. The Golden/INH dynamic prevents me voting there today, and I think there's a good town case to be made for those guys anyway. Sloonei and MM both met heavy suspicion this phase and also led the tally, and I liked how both of them handled that. I just don't see a serial killer.

Quin is the last one. Process of elimination. The case against him is also the one that inspires me most. I feel as good about this as I could reasonably feel. I hope it works out. I hate serial killers.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:And Quin doesn't even know he's on the chopping block. Sucks for him...

It does.

Unfortunately I think it's the best case and I don't want to let it slide just because he isn't here. I wish he was, but shit happens.

Remember when Sloonei and I tried to get MM to vote for someone at the end of a day?

Seriously though I think Quin is the best choice available. If Sloonei is the SK, then well played sir you have fooled me.

This game has the most posts among active Syndicate games.

I won't comment on things G-Man did for the sake of keeping the game in the proper spirit. I don't think Ted Cruz jokes make Sloonei look worse though. The first one especially was kind of there for the taking -- he just took the opportunity. :P

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Do you think this is the most suspicious thing you have seen today, or just the most recent?

Million dollar question.

I am going to say it is the most suspicious thing, yes. The case against you was already distorted from the start because of contextual flaws. The case against Sloonei was reliant upon a perceived contradiction that I could at least conceive of an answer to.

This one with Quin is more of a struggle. Maybe there's a magical answer and he'd provide it if he were here, I don't know. In my current brain state, I struggle to explain why he'd suggest Golden is deliberately pretending to have information while also calling him the most trustworthy player remaining.

I'm all in on Quin right now.

Sloonei wrote:Is it possible Golden is not uniquely informed and is not trying to cultivate the idea that he is, but people are just reading it as if he is?

Yeah, I forgot to include that. It'd be #1 or #2 I think.

Quin's take is distinct though: he is not uniquely informed, and he is trying to make it look that way.

Reminder of my initial theory that INH and leetic/Golden 2.0 had civilian BTSC.

I no longer believe this, but it doesn't have to be entirely wrong. There could still be a n0 peek, or a role check, or whatever other information to inspire at least one direction of this interaction.

IMO, Golden scenarios in order of probability, starting with the most:

1. Golden is uniquely informed.

2. Golden is the serial killer.

3. Golden is a townie pretending to be uniquely informed.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

It's not his reasons for believing that which I find suspicious. I agree with them. It's that he thinks Golden is faking information about INH -- but he still trusts Golden the most and INH the least. That doesn't make sense to me.

Marmot, please talk to me about this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

BRB.

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The fact that INH has said nothing all day makes me think he's less likely to be a SK desperate for survival.

Is that dumb? Am I dumb?

No.

After I saw epi flip I thought sloonei was my most likely vote today, but the stuff sloonei has written on MM is persuasive. Quin seems least likely of the three to be SK (to me).

The difficult thing for me is sloonei's behaviour is like a guy who got town cred early then vanished into the shadows to not get NKed but also not take suspicion. I know it could be only rl stuff, but it also lines up. Now that we are only SK hunting, sloonei is back to take the lead.

On the other hand, sloonei feels genuine, and the stuff on MM makes sense. But, if sloonei is the sk, then of course it's to his advantage to find a case on someone else that looks solid fast.

And I know I don't have that much more time genuinely around to decide this.

Jay, quin, thoughts on sloonei as sk?

An ill-informed 'probably not' for Sloonei as the SK. He's been a consistent town read for me for some time. He's well invested in solving the game despite how busy he is, where I feel like a typical indie would coast a bit in that situation.

This actually reads like a canned answer. He cleared Sloonei for trying to solve the game throughout the game. I think that could apply to everyone alive to varying degrees.

I'm almost into the tunnel. Tunnel mode is nearly activated.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Sloonei wrote:I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.

There's also the fact that Epignosis said nothing about Quin 2.0 and that makes it untraceable other than for someone to say this.

Epignosis had taken a little heat on Day 1. Do you think Beck would still kill him knowing that?

?

Beck was long gone from this game when Epignosis was killed. I don't follow.

You've voted Sloonei Marmot. What is the cause?

Sloonei wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I hope Quin shows up before the deadline.

The deadline is ~3 AM Australia time, I think.

Balls. I hate the thought that you or MM are snaking by because you have the benefit of being here, while he doesn't.

I think the thing about his take on Golden and INH is the most inspired I've been today in a suspicion. I hate serial killers.

I hope Quin shows up before the deadline.

A Quin thing that looked genuine:

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

You would not believe the heaviness of the sigh I just let out reading this.

Like I said though. Me + reading emotions recently = turds

I'd still like a response to my last thing, Marmot.

VOTE QUIN

chugga chugga chugga chugga choo choo

lmao

Sloonei wrote:I've got a 0% success rate when reading Quin as bad, but I'm warming up to the case against him anyway.

Me too. I've suspected everyone this phase.

Sloonei wrote:To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

I see no reason at all for anyone to fake an information claim at this stage in the game either. We can confidently assume that there are no more anti-town teammates left in the game. We just have a lone serial killer. As you said, it's a bit silly for a townie to fake having information on another player just to protect them. It's equally confusing for a serial killer to fake something like that. Sure they could do it for the WIFOM, but that's intensely convoluted.[/quote]

Theory:

I think the "easiest target" today, if there is such a thing, is INH. His inactivity this phase made it so, and frankly so has his tunnel-mania earlier in the game. Quin's hunting has led him to that target, and when confronted with a roadblock (Golden's treatment of INH), he had to provide a dubious assertion to justify maintaining his INH suspicion. That wouldn't be ideal.

Sloonei wrote:I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.

There's also the fact that Epignosis said nothing about Quin 2.0 and that makes it untraceable other than for someone to say this.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:That's a combination of the emotion and logic. On one hand, I offered personal reasons. On the other hand, I offered a statistical trend that suggests that I am not the SK. Take your pick.

I want to be inspired. Roadblocks to that inspiration:

1. I also provided a very similar summary earlier in the game to evidence why the kills in this game aren't my type (when I talked with Epignosis about my Transistor kill motives). If you saw that, the potential for mimicry exists.

2. You suggested you've only killed Epignosis when the game depended on it. In this game, given the timing of Epi's kill, that'd seem close enough to me.

Why did you vote for me?

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

I'm looking at Quin stuff. Let's continue this dialogue as long as possible.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:VOTE METALMARSH89

Two can play that game.

VOTE JAGGEDJIMMYJAY

Okay. I don't think that vote serves a purpose.

Here's my struggle, bros: my suspicions are more centered on Sloonei and MM than the others, though just marginally (I haven't felt this conflicted about a vote in a long time). Both of you have led the tally recently, and both of you have responded in a way that seems genuine and believable.

However, Sloonei's response is a bit more forensic. I can see the explanation he is providing for his hunting methods, and I think they align with what he has done in this thread (before he or I ever suggested it was what he was doing). MM's response is more emotion-driven: the notion that he wouldn't kill Epignosis. In recent memory, I have been getting burned when I trust those emotion-driven posts and I am less feeling less inclined to operate that way right now with the game on the line.

Sloonei, briefly describe what Quin and Golden have done in this hunt that you like.

Sloonei, if you do end up mislynched how would you recommend we approach the following day phase?

Sloonei wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Golden wrote:Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

That's the problem. When I judge INH's motives in a vacuum, I don't seem to end up where you're ending up. I see a possible townie and I see a possible serial killer. You don't seem to see the latter as a serious option that warrants at least a passing thought -- which means I have to figure out why that is. Every scenario I can think of features a town INH, but not always a town Golden.

It's possible you're just promoting a read you have. It'd seem rather reckless to do it that way with the game on the line, and I'm not certain you're the type to operate that way.

What makes you see a possible serial killer?

I don't think tunneling on me for 95% of the game is incompatible with serial killer behavior. It'd actually provide a nice route to remain consistently contributory without ruffling the feathers of too many players -- just my feathers. That only threatens him if I actually am mafia and kill him for it, and I don't think that poses a bad gamble. To be fair, this would imply that his constant suspicion of me wasn't always entirely genuine, and that'd be a difficult assertion to take confidence in. I think there's some evidence of that though (suspecting me as much as ever after reywaS flipped scum).

He has turned on that read now, or at least started to, and landed his suspicion upon the player currently leading the tally -- quite near to EOD. That's a little troubling too.

All of you are suspicious and seem genuine simultaneously. Please stop that and step into the light. Thanks.

Golden wrote:Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

That's the problem. When I judge INH's motives in a vacuum, I don't seem to end up where you're ending up. I see a possible townie and I see a possible serial killer. You don't seem to see the latter as a serious option that warrants at least a passing thought -- which means I have to figure out why that is. Every scenario I can think of features a town INH, but not always a town Golden.

It's possible you're just promoting a read you have. It'd seem rather reckless to do it that way with the game on the line, and I'm not certain you're the type to operate that way.

Sloonei wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:What do you make of Golden 2.0's treatment of INH?

I've seen it mentioned a lot but I've not observed the things that everyone is talking about. I can go back and look for it if I must.

Just go into Golden's ISO. It won't be hard to find.

What do you make of Golden 2.0's treatment of INH?

Marmot literally called the SK a distraction from the mafia, so I'd say he was steering thusly. I don't, however, think that's an inspired reason to say he is the serial killer.

How about the other point I raised just prior to that?

Sloonei wrote:Whoa hey slow down, what are we all doing right now?

The rationale is in recent posts.